NIFTY 9884 IN FOCUS Support 9830 9785 Resistance 9950 9980 Stock in Focus HDFC BANK Positional Pick CANFINHOME Intraday Pick ADANIPORTS Intraday Pick TATACHEM Institutional Equity Research MARKET LENS August 31, 2017 1 Exchange Rs Crore BSE Equity 2,478.7 BSE Derivatives 0.53 NSE Equity 23,269.4 NSE Derivatives 7,30,518.9 Indices Absolute Change Percentage Change Domestic Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD BSE Sensex 31,646.5 258.1 0.8% -2.7% 18.9% CNX Nifty 9,884.4 88.4 0.9% -1.9% 20.8% S&P CNX 500 8,663.2 91.4 1.1% -1.5% 24.1% SENSEX 50 10,275.4 93.4 0.9% -1.7% 21.9% International Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD DJIA 21,892.4 27.1 0.1% 0.0% 10.8% NASDAQ 6,368.3 66.4 1.0% 0.3% 18.3% NIKKEI 19,630.5 123.9 0.6% -1.5% 2.7% HANGSENG 27,911.0 (183.6) -0.7% 2.1% 26.9% MSCI Emerging Mkts 1,088.0 6.8 0.6% 2.0% 26.2% Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD Dr. Reddy’s Lab (ADR) 31.5 (0.2) -0.6% -13.8% -30.3% Tata Motors (ADR) 29.8 0.2 0.5% -13.4% -13.2% Infosys (ADR) 15.1 (0.2) -1.4% -4.7% 1.5% ICICI Bank (ADR) 9.4 (0.0) -0.2% 0.6% 37.6% HDFC Bank (ADR) 96.2 0.6 0.6% -0.6% 58.5% Axis Bank (GDR) 39.0 (0.0) -0.1% -3.0% 18.9% Reliance Ind (GDR) 48.6 1.0 2.0% -2.0% 54.0% ADRs / GDRs Key Commodities Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD Brent Crude ($/bl) 50.7 (0.2) -0.4% -3.8% -10.8% Silver ($/Oz) 17.3 (0.1) -0.6% 3.0% 8.9% Gold ($/Oz) 1,302.5 (6.1) -0.5% 2.6% 13.5% Copper LME ($/MT) 6,740.0 (32.0) -0.5% 7.1% 22.0% Aluminium LME ($/MT) 2,069.0 (15.8) -0.8% 9.8% 21.4% Baltic Dry 1,203.0 (6.0) -0.5% 27.2% 25.2% COMMODITY MARKET Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD USD/INR 64.0 64.0 0.0% -0.3% -5.8% EUR/INR 76.4 77.1 -1.0% 1.4% 6.6% CURRENCY RATES Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD T-Bill - 91 D 6.1 6.1 0.1% -0.1% -1.1% 10 Year G-sec Yield 6.5 6.5 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% RATES Category BUY SELL NET Prev FII 4,169.5 4,182.0 (12.5) (1,459.6) DII 2,239.0 1,948.2 290.8 1,391.3 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY (RS. CR) EXCHANGE TURNOVER CANFINHOME (LTP: 2799) BUY For today’s trade, long position can be initiated at 2765 for target of Rs 3010 with a strict stop loss of Rs 2650. Positional Pick STOCK IN FOCUS EQUITY INDICES Intraday Picks ADANIPORTS (LTP: 389) BUY For today’s trade, long position can be initiated at Rs 386 for target of Rs 397 with a strict stop loss of Rs 382. Traders are advised to avoid early morning whipsaw. TATACHEM (LTP: 589) BUY For today’s trade, long position can be initiated at Rs 584 for target of Rs 602 with a strict stop loss of Rs 578. Traders are advised to avoid early morning whipsaw. Despite adverse operating environment, HDFC Bank continued to deliver strong performance on business growth as well as operating fronts. The Bank has delivered a healthy performance on business growth and operating front in 1QFY18. Despite a mere 6.1% YoY growth in banking industry loan, its loan book grew by 23.4% YoY and 4.8% QoQ,. This outperformance on loan growth front with a huge margin vs. the industry is really commendable as it is the second largest bank in India in terms of loan book size. Its gross NPA and net NPA increased by 23.1% QoQ and 37.1% QoQ, respectively in 1QFY18. However, we are not much concerned over this marginal rise in gross NPA, as the headline NPA and PCR continue to remain best-in-class in the industry. We have revised our loan growth target to 20-21% from earlier estimate of 17-18% led by relatively higher loan growth over last two quarters. As a result, we have upwardly revised our earnings estimates by 1.9% and 3.1% for FY18E & FY19E, respectively. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with an upwardly revised Target Price of Rs1,940 (from Rs1,833 earlier) based on 4x FY19E Adjusted Book Value.
Transcript
NIFTY 9884 IN FOCUS
Support 9830
9785
Resistance 9950
9980
Stock in Focus HDFC BANK
Positional Pick CANFINHOME
Intraday Pick ADANIPORTS
Intraday Pick TATACHEM
Institutional Equity Research
MARKET LENS
August 31, 2017
1
Exchange Rs Crore
BSE Equity 2,478.7
BSE Derivatives 0.53
NSE Equity 23,269.4
NSE Derivatives 7,30,518.9
Indices Absolute Change Percentage Change
Domestic Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD
BSE Sensex 31,646.5 258.1 0.8% -2.7% 18.9%
CNX Nifty 9,884.4 88.4 0.9% -1.9% 20.8%
S&P CNX 500 8,663.2 91.4 1.1% -1.5% 24.1%
SENSEX 50 10,275.4 93.4 0.9% -1.7% 21.9%
International Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD
DJIA 21,892.4 27.1 0.1% 0.0% 10.8%
NASDAQ 6,368.3 66.4 1.0% 0.3% 18.3%
NIKKEI 19,630.5 123.9 0.6% -1.5% 2.7%
HANGSENG 27,911.0 (183.6) -0.7% 2.1% 26.9%
MSCI Emerging Mkts 1,088.0 6.8 0.6% 2.0% 26.2%
Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD
Dr. Reddy’s Lab (ADR) 31.5 (0.2) -0.6% -13.8% -30.3%
CANFINHOME (LTP: 2799) BUYFor today’s trade, long position can be initiated at 2765 for target of Rs 3010 with a strict stop loss of Rs 2650.
Positional Pick
STOCK IN FOCUS
EQUITY INDICES
Intraday PicksADANIPORTS (LTP: 389) BUYFor today’s trade, long position can be initiated at Rs 386 for target of Rs 397 with a strict stop loss of Rs 382. Traders are advised to avoid early morning whipsaw.
TATACHEM (LTP: 589) BUYFor today’s trade, long position can be initiated at Rs 584 for target of Rs 602 with a strict stop loss of Rs 578. Traders are advised to
avoid early morning whipsaw.
Despite adverse operating environment, HDFC Bank continued to deliver strong performance on business growth as well as operating fronts.
The Bank has delivered a healthy performance on business growth and operating front in 1QFY18. Despite a mere 6.1% YoY growth in banking industry loan, its loan book grew by 23.4% YoY and 4.8% QoQ,. This outperformance on loan growth front with a huge margin vs. the industry is really commendable as it is the second largest bank in India in terms of loan book size.
Its gross NPA and net NPA increased by 23.1% QoQ and 37.1% QoQ, respectively in 1QFY18. However, we are not much concerned over this marginal rise in gross NPA, as the headline NPA and PCR continue to remain best-in-class in the industry.
We have revised our loan growth target to 20-21% from earlier estimate of 17-18% led by relatively higher loan growth over last two quarters.
As a result, we have upwardly revised our earnings estimates by 1.9% and 3.1% for FY18E & FY19E, respectively. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with an upwardly revised Target Price of Rs1,940 (from Rs1,833 earlier) based on 4x FY19E Adjusted Book Value.
NIFTY 9884 IN FOCUS
Support 9830
9785
Resistance 9950
9980
Stock in Focus HDFC BANK
Positional Pick CANFINHOME
Intraday Pick ADANIPORTS
Intraday Pick TATACHEM
Institutional Equity Research
MARKET LENS
August 31, 2017
2
MARKET SYNOPSIS
f Yesterday, NSE-NIFTY managed to erase prior daily losses post a gap up opening on back of recovery in global markets and buying in frontline majors. Finally, after registering low of 9,851 and high of 9,909 levels during the day, NIFTY settled the session at 9,884 mark, with the gain of 88 points.
f NSE Cash segment reported turnover of Rs23,269 crore as compared to Rs23,702 crore earlier.
f Overall market breadth remained positive, where 1257 stocks advanced against 397 declined stocks.
f Positive trend was observed across all the sectoral indices during the day barring IT index (declined marginally), where Realty and Metal indices emerged as top gainers with the increase of 1.7% and 2.7% respectively.
NSE-NIFTY OUTLOOK
f NSE-NIFTY witnessed relatively high volatility in the last two days amidst geo-political risk, but the way global markets have recovered after a sharp fall it seems that Indian market will also stabilize soon. On the higher side, index will face immediate hurdle around 9,980 mark (23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of prior up-move 9,449 to 10,138), where any sustainable move above that mark will bring exuberance of recording new high back in trade. In case of any decline, its Medium-term moving average 50-DEMA (placed around 9,830 level) will continue to work as key reversal point and thereafter recent swing low (i.e. 9,686 mark) will save the index from falling.
f As for the day, support is placed at around 9,830 and then at 9,785 levels, while resistance is observed at 9,950 and then around at 9,980 levels.
Technical Research
NIFTY 9884 IN FOCUS
Support 9830
9785
Resistance 9950
9980
Stock in Focus HDFC BANK
Positional Pick CANFINHOME
Intraday Pick ADANIPORTS
Intraday Pick TATACHEM
Institutional Equity Research
MARKET LENS
August 31, 2017
3
f The stock has retraced 30% of prior up-move (Rs1,256-3,330) after registering life-time-high of Rs3,330, where its short-term moving average 20-week EMA tried to halt further decline with a narrow range consolidation.
f Due to the recent retracement in the stock, Stochastic slipped into oversold zone and its RSI is about to hit the neutral line.
f On the higher side, its life-time-high will work as key reversal point whereas on the downside double bottom near 2670 will act as support levels.
f Thus, for today’s trade long position can be initiated at 2765 for a target of Rs3,010 with a stop loss of Rs2,650.
f Nifty has reversed its previous day loss and closed near the day’s high with broader market momentum in today’s trade. Nifty closed up by 88 points at 9,884 levels. Among the nifty stocks 38 stocks advanced and 11 declined during the day.
f Sectorally, all sectors ended positive except IT with the highest gain in Metals, Realty and Media to gain by 1.8% average while other sectors ended positive to the tune of 0.5% average.
f Broader market indices remained positive with NIFTY 100,200 and 500 to close up by 1% average while midcap indices and small cap indices gained by 1.4% and 1.8% respectively.
f Nifty August futures ends with 1 points premium at 9,884 mark, while on other hand, Bank Nifty August futures ended with the discount of 4 points at 24,305 mark.
f Nifty is trading in the range of 9800-9950 levels for past few days and any breakout above 9,950 levels would build momentum in midcaps and small caps. There is sharp movement among individual stocks with respect to rollover movements ahead of the expiry. Nifty 9,850 and 9,900 PE has seen some buildup with respect to addition of 13 laksh shares in today’s trade which will be key to watch in tomorrow expiry day.
Sectoral Activity: Amongst sectoral index, NBFC and Power remained in focus with positive momentum.
Stock Activity: Equitas and Adani Power observed build up in long position.
Derivatives Snapshot
TOP 5 PRICE GAINERS
Stock Name LTP % Price Chg % Vol Chg %OI Chg Support Pivot Resistance
The Motor & General Finance Limited 14-Sep-17 Results
NIFTY 9884 IN FOCUS
Support 9830
9785
Resistance 9950
9980
Stock in Focus HDFC BANK
Positional Pick CANFINHOME
Intraday Pick ADANIPORTS
Intraday Pick TATACHEM
Institutional Equity Research
MARKET LENS
August 31, 2017
13
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