Support for grower networks by OSU Support for grower networks by OSU IPPC - Online IPM weather data and IPPC - Online IPM weather data and

pest modelspest models

Leonard Coop & Paul JepsonLeonard Coop & Paul Jepson

Integrated Plant Protection CenterIntegrated Plant Protection Center

Oregon State UniversityOregon State University

Outline IPPC Talk - Sept 12, 2006

• Title: "Support for grower networks by OSU IPPC - Online IPM weather data and pest models"

– 1. Brief history/what we are about as a grant-funded entity

– 2. Some issues and problems inherent in using weather-driven services

– 3. New and future IPPC products including quality assurance procedures, new models, custom degree-day maps, and insect and disease model forecasts

Len CoopLen Coop - IPPC, Oregon State University - IPPC, Oregon State University Christopher DalyChristopher Daly, Director, Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State , Director, Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State UniversityUniversityAlan FoxAlan Fox – Foxweather, LCC – Foxweather, LCC Gary Grove - Gary Grove - Washington State University Washington State University Doug GublerDoug Gubler – University California – University California Paul Jepson – Paul Jepson – Director, IPPC, Oregon State University Director, IPPC, Oregon State University Ken JohnsonKen Johnson – Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University – Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University Walter MahaffeeWalter Mahaffee – USDA-ARS – USDA-ARS William PfenderWilliam Pfender – USDA-ARS – USDA-ARS Fran PierceFran Pierce - Director, Center for Precision Agricultural Systems, Washington - Director, Center for Precision Agricultural Systems, Washington State UniversityState UniversityJoyce StrandJoyce Strand - University of California - Information Systems Manager and - University of California - Information Systems Manager and MeteorologistMeteorologistCarla S. Thomas -Carla S. Thomas -National Plant Diagnostic Network, University California National Plant Diagnostic Network, University California

W IPMC Weather WorkgroupW IPMC Weather Workgroup

Weather Networks – How Weather Networks – How

representative?representative?• Dec 05 – where to put next PAWS/agweathernet stations – current area represented each station

Weather Networks – How Weather Networks – How

representative?representative?• Dec 05 – where to put next PAWS/agweathernet stations – current area represented each station

Weather Networks – How to share Weather Networks – How to share

data?data?• Campbell-based CPCRC 6 station network – already in publicly available MesoWest database

Weather Network Checklist – What to look for:Weather Network Checklist – What to look for:✔ Weather station hardware – reliability, uptime, product lifetime, etc. - $$

✔ Dedicated hardware maintenance – response time - $$

✔ Type of data transfer to collection points: 1-way or 2-way; modem, cell phone, radio, satellite, internet, or?

✔ Database issues – how are the data from various stations stored and accessed? Are missing data auto-resynchronized from sensor to user: station<->gateway<->server<->client partially or completely?

✔ Is there some type of local delivery and support software (models?) – e.g. the owner's PC - $

✔ Does the network involve standardized internet data collection and delivery or “Public Aggregation” (e. g. Missoula & Utah NWS Mesowest)

✔ Is there “added value” regarding model development and delivery – such as missing data estimation, intelligent spatial interpolation, integrated forecasts, and Extension service/other expert advising including validations?

IPPC: degree-day calculator and models integrated with IPPC: degree-day calculator and models integrated with 6,300+ weather stations6,300+ weather stations

IPPC daily online degree-day maps: 48 statesIPPC daily online degree-day maps: 48 states

Prototype Products in Development 2. Generic disease risk models – initially for NPDN epidemiologists

Prototype Products in Development 2. Generic disease risk models – initially for NPDN epidemiologists

OSU IPPC IPM models – featuresOSU IPPC IPM models – features

• IPPC - automated PRISM climate map + nearby station based max-min temperature estimation of missing data

• IPPC - use numerous weather networks; higher chance of nearby stations to help estimate missing data

• Are missing/bad data feeding the models? How will you know? Need to have option to show the data with model outputs

• Pest models database – working with researchers, Extension to develop, maintain, and respond to local user needs for all the models

• Forecasts: current – PNW weather.com 10-day, NWS zone 7-day max-min forecasts full USA

• IPPC/Fox weather 2007 – new research project to estimate missing data(hourly temps, RH, precip, wind speed) using Day 0 forecast data

• Forecast models: 2007 – 3 to 5-day site-specific forecasts for all pest models (IPM weather workgroup grant w/Fox weather, other researchers)

Additional Slides (not Additional Slides (not used in the 15 minute used in the 15 minute presentation) follow:presentation) follow:

Online Weather Data from IPPC - history

• 1995-6 “bootstrap” era – initial products for Oregon converted from Pascal DOS programs into UNIX

• 1996-1999 PNW 3-state era, some Areawide Codling Moth funding, initial WR IPM funding

• 1999-2004 WR IPM grants, support OR grower networks and disease models, 5 state NW region (2003: 900+ weather stations, 45 pest models)

• 2004-present Focus on plant disease models, expand to national status (2006: 6300+ stations, 49 pest models), NPDN funding

• 2006-2009 Focus on forecasting for disease models, NRI Plant Biosecurity funding

Model Runs0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Calculator/model usage per year

1999

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005 (est)

•Degree-day/Phenology Calc./Model Usage – PNWPEST.ORG •Example 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005-Oct24•================================================================================•Degree-Day Calculator generic 454 3219 6048 5162 7761 7599•codling moth [apple & pear] 83 1123 2019 2053 2428 1827•fire blight [apple & pear] 17 300 699 1115 778 560•

Oregon Annual Precipitation

Mean Annual Precipitation, 1961-90

Full PRISM ModelMax ~ 3300 mm

Simple distance interpolation

Max ~ 7900 mm

PRISM Knowledge PRISM Knowledge BaseBase

• Elevation influence on climate

• Terrain-induced climate transitions (topographic facets, moisture index)

• Coastal effects

• Two-layer atmosphere and topographic index

• Orographic effectiveness of terrain

• Persistence of climatic patterns (climatically-aided interpolation)

PRISM International Climate MappingPRISM International Climate Mapping

Western Canada

Pacific BasinChina

Taiwan

MongoliaEuropean Alps

Temperature, Rainfall, Humidity Maps: all maps are state-of-Temperature, Rainfall, Humidity Maps: all maps are state-of-the-art, and are used as the standard for evaluation of other the-art, and are used as the standard for evaluation of other

methodsmethods

At a glance: At a glance: current, normal, deviations Jan 1 to date current, normal, deviations Jan 1 to date

Now available nation-wideNow available nation-wide e.g. 50 Degree threshold – Pennsylvania Jan. 1 – June 13, 2005e.g. 50 Degree threshold – Pennsylvania Jan. 1 – June 13, 2005

Hood River, OR – tree fruitHood River, OR – tree fruit1. 2 km resolution2. 100 m resolution3. 30 m res. - online DD mapping tool

Prototype Products in Development 1. DPEP (Date of Phenological Event Prediction) maps

Products in Development 3. Site specific forecast models

GFS forecast model (up to 10 days) -> CALMET + MtnRTemps -> FL Leaf Wetness (orig. Kim et al. - Iowa

State) -> numerous plant disease risk models at ca 2 KM resolution

ConclusionsConclusions

• IPM decision making resides with the grower: decision aids need to be resolved to the field/farm scale

• Advanced climate analysis is an effective starting point for development of tools and services

• Development model in OR, PNW, West, has recruited large numbers of growers, and is evolving

• Plant disease models, supported by improved forecasting, are in development; some released

• WIPM Center Weather Workgroup is focusing on standards, quality control, and delivery of comprehensive regional and national services

• GIS-based tools offer scope for integration of other IPM decision tools relating to diagnostics, IPM options, and spatially resolved risk and risk mitigation factors