Supporting Small Scale Farmers’ Accessto Climate Information (Roundtable)

Seasonal forecast

Type of forecast and comms method

Agricultural decisions

Seasonal(agric extension, barazas, churches and mosques, farmer groups, radio)

o What crops to grow

o What varieties to growo Soil moisture conservation strategies to adopto Modification of grazing strategieso Use of conserved forageo Purchasing feed before prices riseo Livestock breeding and saleo Renovation of flood protection measures

Short-term(agric extension, SMS, radio, community/FG centre notice board)

o Application of fertiliser/manure

o Use of irrigation/rationing of irrigation resourceso Weed and pest control measureso Movement of livestocko Forage conservationo Crop drying

So combine to increase use and relevance of the seasonal forecast

+

=(if LIs predict early start/finish to rains)

20%B

35%N

45%A

20%B

35%N

45%A

or

How to interpret probabilistic information…

A 45% +12

N 35% +2

B 20% -13Two ideas…

Hedging – making proportionate decisions about crops to grow, seed to buy…

A 45%

N 35%

B 20%

As LIs have confirmedincreased risk of earlyrains cessation, put veg plot into cassava?

VWetter season optione.g. high yieldH maize

Dry seasonoption e.g. millet,sorghum

Average seasonoption e.g. composite maizeand beans

If rains are good, allthese options will producewell anyway, so certainelement of no-regrets here,but ultimately it is up to the farmer to decide

Roughly 45%

Roughly 20%

Roughly 35%

But also taking into account…

• Seed supply and choice• Other input supply• Soil variation across the farm• Access to irrigation• Staple food preferences• Market opportunities• Perennial crops already cultivated• Prevalence of pests and diseases

Thresholds – go for one strategy if the threshold is passed…

A 45% +12

N 35% +2

B 20% -13

A+N 80%

N+B 55%

If A+N is 80% or more, the likelihood of a good season is highenough to bet the farm?

What sort of results should we expect…

Evidence from Zimbabwe has demonstrated a yield improvement for maize from 9.4 – 18.7% due to increased access to meteorological information (Suarez et al, 2005). Farmers in Mali receiving short-term forecasts (10 day bulletins, 3 and 1 day forecasts) likewise achieved yield benefits for millet, sorghum and maize of 10 – 48% due to their increased use of climate information (Helmuth et al, 2010)Reasonable expectation – 10% to 20% yield enhancementand a fully functioning farmer forecasting service