Climate Change Induced Farming Uncertainty: The Regional Concerns
Surender Singh [email protected]
Josef Eitzinger* and Diwan Singh
CCS Haryana Agricultural University
Hisar, INDIA
* Univ of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences
Vienna, AUSTRIA
Integrated assessment framework for considering climate change
IPCC, 2007
Climate change and extreme events
Varying vulnerabilities in India based on double exposure to climate change and globalization
Pachauri, 2006
Climate change scenarios for India
Lal et al., 2001
Year Season Increase inTemperature,
oC
Change inRainfall, %
Lowest Highest Lowest Highest
Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.362020s
Kharif 0.87 1.12 1.81 5.10
Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.822050s
Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.52
Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.502080s
Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18
Stress on the land and water resources Threat to ecosystems and biodiversity Yields of major crops expected to decline Greater vulnerability to extreme climate events like cyclones, droughts and floods, particularly in coastal areas Potential for drier conditions in arid and semi- arid parts of India
Pachauri, 2006
Some Specific Impacts on India
Factors effecting crop production in changing climate
Temperature & CO2
Soil
Soil Water
Weeds
Pests & Diseases
Yield
Length of growing season
Potential impact of climate change on wheat production in India
75.65 75.20 74.50 74.00 73.0071.00
66.37
58.97
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
Pro
du
cti
on
, M
ton
s
Aggarwal et al, 2002
2020 2050
05-10
00-05
-05-00
-05-10
-10-20
-20-40
>-40
% Change in yield
Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a
pessimistic technology scenario
Aggarwal, 2000
425 ppm CO2 and 2°C increase in temp
Boundary changes for productivity of irrigated wheat
Aggarwal, 2000
North India – 4.5 t/ha
South India – 2.5 t/ha
• Drought proofing by mixed cropping
• Tolerant crops
• Resource conservation
• Frost management by irrigation
• Heat stress alleviation by frequent irrigation
• Shelter-belts
Mitigation Strategies
Invent short varieties/crops
Altering fertiliser rates to maintain grain or fruit
quality and be more suited to the prevailing
climate
Altering amounts and timing of irrigation
Conserve soil moisture (e.g. crop residue
retention)
Altering the timing or location of cropping
activities
• Reduce GHG emissions through all means
• Replace intensive development with sustainable development
• Integrated, collaborative & effective approach to address
the problem of GW, CC & CV at all levels
Eitzinger, 2009
H i g h T i m e
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