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8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
1/24
Npenxj Xfuafs ne Fgnlnoag Tnkagq+ Unkvof 86+ Lvohfx 7+ 8441+ tt,7::753
Wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz2 s`q z`f snxwzalexiwzxvgzvxf cfzw hvakzilj s`iz sf giljn ihnvz az
Hflz Ekquhbfxc
Ihwzxigz Z`f ixzagkf xwz jfwgxahfw g`ixigzfxawzagw ne oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw, Wfgnlj+ az jngvoflzw
i ovg` lfckfgzfj zntag al fgnlnoagw2 z`iz fp ilzf fwzaoizfw ne gnwzw ilj hflfzw ixf nezfl ufxq jaeefxflz
exno igzvik fp tnwz gnwzw ilj hflfzw, Enx kixcf alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw z`f gnlwfyvflgfw ixf gnwz nufxxvlw+
hflfz w`nxzeikkw+ ilj z`f wqwzfoizag vljfxfwzaoizanl ne xawmw, Z`axj+ aotkagizanlw enx gnwzhflfz ilikqwaw
ixf jfwgxahfj+ algkvjalc z`iz wvg` ilikqwaw aw lnz zn hf zxvwzfj enx oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw, Envxz`+ z`f
ixzagkf vlgnufxw z`f givwfw ne z`aw wzizf ne ieeiaxw al zfxow ne tfxufxwf algflzaufw z`iz flgnvxicf txnonzfxw
zn vljfxfwzaoizf gnwzw ilj nufxfwzaoizf hflfzw al z`f hvwalfww giwfw enx z`fax txnbfgzw, Hvz z`f txnbfgzw z`iz
ixf oijf zn knnm hfwz nl titfx ixf z`f txnbfgzw z`iz ioiww z`f `ac`fwz gnwz nufxxvlw ilj hflfz w`nxzeikkw
al xfikazq, Z`f ixzagkf jftagzw z`aw wazvizanl iw wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz, Eaez`+ z`f ixzagkf wfzw nvz zn fptkial
`ns z`f txnhkfo oiq hf wnkufj+ saz` i uafs zn ixxaualc iz onxf fegaflz ilj onxf jfongxizag txnbfgzw+ ilj
iunajalc z`f wgiljikw z`iz nezfl iggnotilq oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf alufwzoflzw, Ealikkq+ z`f ixzagkf ajflzafw
gvxxflz zxfljw al oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf jfufkntoflz, Az aw ixcvfj z`iz i xitaj algxfiwf al wzaovkvw wtfljalc+
gnohalfj saz` onxf alufwzoflzw al fofxcalc fgnlnoafw+ gnohalfj saz` onxf wtfljalc nl alenxoizanlzfg`lnkncq aw gizitvkzalc alexiwzxvgzvxf alufwzoflz exno z`f exqalc til alzn z`f xf,
Mfq snxjw2 alexiwzxvgzvxf+ gnwz nufxxvlw+ hflfz w`nxzeikkw+ gnwzhflfz ilikqwaw+ ntzaoawo haiw+ icflgq
awwvfw+ xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwzalc
BFK gkiwwagizanl2 @:7+ @6:+ X:8
A, Alzxnjvgzanl
Al oaj/8440+ Z`f Fgnlnoawzgikkfj gvxxflz wtfljalc nl alexiwzxvgzvxf z`f haccfwz alufwzoflzhnno al `awznxq (Z`f Fgnlnoawz+ 3 Bvlf 8440+ t, 04!, Wtfljalc siw z`f kixcfwz az `ij fufx
hffl iw i w`ixf ne snxkj CJT, S`fl z`f wgik gxawaw jfftflfj ilj hfgiof cknhik jvxalc z`f
ivzvol zn salzfx ne 84401+ z`aw gnvkj `iuf fljfj z`f alexiwzxvgzvxf hnno+ iw hilmw ilj
gitazik evljw xijagikkq gvz higm nl z`fax kfljalc, Hvz z`f nttnwazf ittfixw zn `iuf `ittflfj,
Wij Hvwalfww Wg`nnk+ Vlaufxwazq ne Npenxj+ f/oiak2 hflz,quhbfxcDwhw,np,ig,vm
Tixzne z`fxfwfixg` enx z`aw titfx siw gixxafj nvz s akf z`f ivz nx siw txnefwwnx iz Iikhnxc Vlaufxwazq+ Jfloixm
ilj Jfkez Vlaufxwazq ne Zfg`lnkncq+ z`f Lfz`fxkiljw,
jna2 94,9417.npxft.cxt48:
G Z`f Ivz`nx 8441, Tvhkaw`fj hq Npenxj Vlaufxwazq Txfww,
Enx tfxoawwanlw tkfiwf f/oiak2 bnvxlikw,tfxoawwanlwDnpenxjbnvxlikw,nxc
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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Wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz2 s`q z`f snxwz alexiwzxvgzvxf cfzw hvakzilj s`iz sf gil jn ihnvz az 7:6
Xfjvgzanlw al txauizf evljw `iuf hffl neewfz hq `vljxfjw ne hakkanlw ne tvhkag jnkkixw enx
wzaovkvw wtfljalc, @fijw ne wzizf+ kfj hq VW txfwajflz Hixig` Nhioi ilj G`ali Txfoafx
Sfl Baihin+ `iuf walckfj nvz alufwzoflz al alexiwzxvgzvxf iw i mfq ofilw zn gxfizf bnhw ilj
mfft z`f fgnlnoq exno wkvotalc, G`ali siw xwz onufx s`fl azw Wzizf Gnvlgak+ al Lnufohfx
8440+ tiwwfj i *605 hakkanl wzaovkvw tkil+ oialkq enx alufwzoflz al alexiwzxvgzvxf, Al Efhxvixq
8441 z`f VWI enkknsfj wvaz+ saz Gnlcxfww tiwwalc Txfwajflz Nhioiw *303 hakkanl lfs Lfs
Jfik, Aljai `iw i *:36 hakkanl tkil+ ilj z`f VM+ Cfxoilq+ Exilgf+ ilj oilq nz`fx lizanlw
`iuf oijf waoakix ixxilcfoflzw,
Saz` wn ovg` onlfq al z`f tatfkalfilj saz` z`f `fikz` ne z`f cknhik fgnlnoq xajalc nl
z`f wvggfww ne alexiwzxvgzvxf alufwzoflzz`f fegaflgq ne alexiwzxvgzvxf jfkaufxq aw tixzagv/
kixkq aotnxzilz iz txfwflz, Ae jnlf xac`z z`f alufwzoflz hnno gnvkj hfgnof i hnnl+ hfgivwf
alexiwzxvgzvxf alufwzoflz aw ittfikalc al oilq siqw2 az gxfizfw ilj wvwzialw fotknqoflz=
z`fxf aw i kixcf fkfoflz ne jnofwzag altvzw xfkizauf zn aotnxzw= az aotxnufw txnjvgzauazq ilj
gnotfzazauflfww hq knsfxalc txnjvgfx gnwzw= az hflfzw gnlwvofxw z`xnvc` `ac`fx/yvikazq wfx/
uagfw= ilj az aotxnufw z`f fluaxnloflz s`fl alexiwzxvgzvxfw z`iz ixf fluaxnloflzikkq wnvlj
wvhwzazvzf enx alexiwzxvgzvxfw z`iz ixf lnz (@fko+ 8440+ t, 9!,Hvz z`fxf aw i hac ae `fxf, Hfgivwf ae jnlf sxnlc z`f z`xvwz oiq hfgnof i hvwz+ saz`
hnnljncckfw snxwf z`il ilq wffl qfz+ sfimflalc z`f fgnlnoq alwzfij ne aotxnualc az, Vlenx/
zvlizfkq z`f gnluflzanlik siq ne jfkaufxalc oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf w`nsw i jawoik tfxenxoilgf
xfgnxj, Al s`iz enkknsw+ A jngvoflz z`f xfgnxj+ fptkial s`q az aw wn tnnx+ ilj likkq jfwgxahf
ofiwvxfw z`iz oiq `fkt gvxxflz wzaovkvw wtfljalc hfgnof feefgzauf+ alwzfij ne ijjalc zn z`f
lilgaik ilj fgnlnoag eiakvxfw z`iz kazzfx z`f fkj ne alexiwzxvgzvxf alufwzoflz,
Hvz xwz+ kfzw wff s`iz z`f g`ixigzfxawzagw ne oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf ixf,
AA, G`ixigzfxawzagw ne oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf
Oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw cflfxikkq `iuf z`f enkknsalc g`ixigzfxawzagw,9
x Wvg` txnbfgzw ixf al`fxflzkq xawmq nsalc zn knlc tkillalc `nxarnlw ilj gnotkfp alzfx/
eigfw,x Zfg`lnkncq ilj jfwacl ixf nezfl lnl/wziljixj,x Jfgawanl/oimalc+ tkillalc+ ilj oilicfoflz ixf zqtagikkq ovkza/igznx txngfwwfw saz`
gnlagzalc alzfxfwzw,x Nezfl z`fxf aw kngm al nx gitzvxf ne i gfxzial txnbfgz gnlgftz iz il fixkq wzicf+ kfiualc
ilikqwaw ne ikzfxlizaufw sfim nx ihwflz,x Z`f txnbfgz wgntf nx iohazanl kfufk sakk zqtagikkq g`ilcf waclagilzkq nufx zaof,x Wzizawzagik fuajflgf w`nsw z`iz wvg` vltkillfj fuflzw ixf nezflvliggnvlzfj enx+ kfiualc
hvjcfz ilj zaof gnlzalcflgafw wnxfkq alijfyvizf,x Iw i gnlwfyvflgf+ oawalenxoizanl ihnvz gnwzw+ hflfzw+ ilj xawmw aw z`f lnxo z`xnvc`/
nvz txnbfgz jfufkntoflz ilj jfgawanl/oimalc+ algkvjalc al z`f hvwalfww giwf,x Z`f xfwvkz aw gnwz nufxxvlw ilj.nx hflfz w`nxzeikkw jvxalc txnbfgz aotkfoflzizanl,
9 Hq oibnx txnbfgzw A `fxf ofil z`f onwz fptflwauf txnbfgzw z`iz ixf hvakz al z`f snxkj znjiq+ zqtagikkq iz gnwzw
tfx txnbfgz exno ixnvlj i `vljxfj oakkanl zn wfufxik hakkanl jnkkixw,
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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7:5 Hflz Ekquhbfxc
Zihkf 92 Aliggvxigq ne zxilwtnxzizanl txnbfgz gnwz fwzaoizfw hq zqtf ne txnbfgz+ al gnlwzilz txagfw
Zqtf ne txnbfgz Ln, ne giwfw Iuc, gnwz nufxxvl & Wziljixj jfuaizanl
Xiak 60 ::,3 70,:
Hxajcfw ilj zvllfkw 77 77,0 58,:Xnij 953 84,: 81,1
Gnwz nufxxvlw al z`f nxjfx ne 64 tfx gflz al xfik zfxow ixf gnoonl enx oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf+
ilj nufxxvlw ihnuf 944 tfx gflz ixf lnz vlgnoonl, Jfoilj ilj hflfz enxfgiwzw z`iz ixf
sxnlc hq 8434 tfx gflz gnotixfj saz` igzvik jfufkntoflz ixf gnoonl,
Zihkf 9 w`nsw onxf jfziakfj gnwz jizi enx zxilwtnxzizanl alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw, Zxilw/
tnxzizanl aw vwfj iw il fpiotkf `fxf ilj fkwfs`fxf al z`f ixzagkf hfgivwf z`f hfwz jizi fpawz
enx zxilwtnxzizanl ilj hfgivwf z`fxf aw lnz flnvc` wtigf zn txfwflz jizi enx ikk txnbfgz zqtfw,
Az w`nvkj hf oflzanlfj+ `nsfufx+ z`iz gnotixizauf xfwfixg` w`nsw z`iz z`f txnhkfow ajflza/
fj enx zxilwtnxzizanl ittkq zn i sajf xilcf ne nz`fx txnbfgz zqtfw algkvjalc AGZ wqwzfow+
hvakjalcw+ ifxnwtigf txnbfgzw+ jfeflgf+ ofci/fuflzw wvg` iw z`f Nkqotagw ilj z`f SnxkjGvt+ sizfx txnbfgzw+ jiow+ tnsfx tkilzw+ nak ilj ciw fpzxigzanl txnbfgzw+ oalalc+ kixcf/wgikf
oilveigzvxalc+ hac wgaflgf+ ilj vxhil ilj xfcanlik jfufkntoflz txnbfgzw (Ekquhbfxc fz ik,+
8447+ tt, 9091= Ikzw`vkfx ilj Kvhfxnee+ 8447= Txafovw fz ik,+ 8440= Ekquhbfxc fz ik,+ 8448+
t, 805= Ekquhbfxc+ 8446i!,
Z`f jiziwfz al Zihkf 9 w`nsw gnwz nufxxvl al 860 txnbfgzw al 84 lizanlw nl uf gnlzalflzw,
Ikk txnbfgzw enx s`ag` jizi sfxf nhzialihkf sfxf algkvjfj al z`f wzvjq,8 Enx xiak+ iufxicf gnwz
nufxxvl aw ::,3 tfx gflz ofiwvxfj al gnlwzilz txagfw exno z`f hvakj jfgawanl, Enx hxajcfw ilj
zvllfkw+ z`f fyvauikflz cvxf aw 77,0 tfx gflz+ ilj enx xnijw 84,: tfx gflz, Z`f jaeefxflgf al
gnwz nufxxvl hfzsffl z`f z`xff txnbfgz zqtfw aw wzizawzagikkq waclagilz (Ekquhbfxc fz ik,+ 8448!,
Z`f kixcf wziljixj jfuaizanlw w`nsl al Zihkf 9 ixf iw alzfxfwzalc iw z`f kixcf iufxicf gnwz
nufxxvlw, Z`f warf ne z`f wziljixj jfuaizanlw jfonlwzxizfw z`iz vlgfxzialzq ilj xawm xfcixjalcgnwz nufxxvlw al alexiwzxvgzvxf ixf kixcf+ aljffj,
Z`f enkknsalc mfq nhwfxuizanlw tfxzial zn gnwz nufxxvlw al zxilwtnxzizanl alexiwzxvgzvxf
txnbfgzw2
x lalf nvz ne 94 txnbfgzw `iuf gnwz nufxxvl=x nufxxvl aw envlj igxnww z`f 84 lizanlw ilj uf gnlzalflzw gnufxfj hq z`f wzvjq=x nufxxvl aw gnlwzilz enx z`f 34/qfix tfxanj gnufxfj hq z`f wzvjq= gnwz fwzaoizfw `iuf lnz
aotxnufj nufx zaof,
Zihkf 8 w`nsw z`f aliggvxigq ne zxiufk jfoilj enxfgiwzw enx xiak ilj xnij alexiwzxvgzvxf, Z`f
jfoilj wzvjq gnufxw 840 txnbfgzw al 9: lizanlw nl uf gnlzalflzw, Ikk txnbfgzw enx s`ag` jizi
8 Z`f jizi ixf exno z`f kixcfwz jizihiwf ne azw malj, Ikk gnwzw ixf gnlwzxvgzanl gnwzw ofiwvxfj al gnlwzilz txagfw,
Gnwz nufxxvl+ ikwn wnofzaofw gikkfj gnwz algxfiwf nx gnwz fwgikizanl+ aw ofiwvxfj iggnxjalc zn alzfxlizanlik
gnluflzanl iw igzvik nvzzvxl gnwzw oalvw fwzaoizfj gnwzw al tfxgflzicf ne fwzaoizfj gnwzw, Igzvik gnwzw ixf jflfj
iw xfik+ iggnvlzfj gnlwzxvgzanl gnwzw jfzfxoalfj iz z`f zaof ne txnbfgz gnotkfzanl, Fwzaoizfj gnwzw ixf jflfj iw
hvjcfzfj+ nx enxfgiwzfj+ gnlwzxvgzanl gnwzw iz z`f zaof ne z`f jfgawanl zn hvakj, Enx xfiwnlw fptkialfj al Ekquhbfxc
fz ik, (8448! z`f cvxfw enx gnwz nufxxvl txfwflzfj `fxf ovwz hf gnlwajfxfj gnlwfxuizauf, Ajfikkq lilgalc gnwzw+
ntfxizalc gnwzw+ ilj oialzflilgf gnwzw snvkjikwn hf algkvjfj al i wzvjq ne gnwzw, Az aw jaegvkz+ `nsfufx+ zn lj uikaj+
xfkaihkf+ ilj gnotixihkf jizi nl z`fwf zqtfw ne gnwzw igxnww kixcf lvohfxw ne txnbfgzw, Enx jfziakw nl ofz`njnkncq+
wff Ekquhbfxc fz ik, (8448!,
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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Wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz2 s`q z`f snxwz alexiwzxvgzvxf cfzw hvakzilj s`iz sf gil jn ihnvz az 7:3
Zihkf 82 Aliggvxigq al enxfgiwzw ne xiak tiwwflcfx ilj xnij uf`agkf zxieg
Zqtf ne txnbfgz Ln, ne giwfw Iuc, aliggvxigq & Wziljixj jfuaizanl
Xiak 86 69,: 80,9
Xnij 907 1,6 ::,7
sfxf nhzialihkf sfxf algkvjfj al z`f wzvjq,7 Enx xiak+ igzvik tiwwflcfx zxieg aw 69,: tfx gflz
knsfx z`il fwzaoizfj zxieg nl iufxicf, Z`aw aw fyvauikflz zn il iufxicf nufxfwzaoizf al xiak
tiwwflcfx enxfgiwzw ne ln kfww z`il 946,5 tfx gflz, Z`f xfwvkz aw kixcf hflfz w`nxzeikkw enx
xiak, Enx xnijw+ igzvik uf`agkf zxieg aw nl iufxicf 1,6 tfx gflz `ac`fx z`il enxfgiwzfj zxieg,
Sf wff z`iz xiak tiwwflcfx enxfgiwzw ixf haiwfj+ s`fxfiw z`aw aw kfww z`f giwf enx xnij zxieg
enxfgiwzw, Z`f jaeefxflgf hfzsffl xiak ilj xnij aw wzizawzagikkq waclagilz iz i `ac` kfufk,
Icial z`f wziljixj jfuaizanlw ixf kixcf+ aljagizalc z`iz enxfgiwzalc fxxnxw uixq sajfkq igxnww
txnbfgzw (Ekquhbfxc fz ik,+ 8446= Ekquhbfxc+ 8446h!,
Z`f enkknsalc nhwfxuizanlw `nkj enx zxieg jfoilj enxfgiwzw2
x 0: tfx gflz ne xiak tiwwflcfx enxfgiwzw ixf sxnlc hq onxf z`il 84 tfx gflz=x lalf nvz ne 94 xiak txnbfgzw `iuf nufxfwzaoizfj zxieg=x 64 tfx gflz ne xnij zxieg enxfgiwzw ixf sxnlc hq onxf z`il 84 tfx gflz=x z`f lvohfx ne xnijw saz` nufxfwzaoizfj ilj z`f lvohfx saz` vljfxfwzaoizfj zxieg aw
ihnvz z`f wiof=x aliggvxigq al zxieg enxfgiwzw aw envlj al z`f 9: lizanlw ilj uf gnlzalflzw gnufxfj hq
z`f wzvjq=x aliggvxigq aw gnlwzilz enx z`f 74/qfix tfxanj gnufxfj hq z`f wzvjq= enxfgiwzw `iuf lnz
aotxnufj nufx zaof,
Sf gnlgkvjf z`iz ae zfg`layvfw ilj wmakkw enx ixxaualc iz iggvxizf gnwz ilj zxieg enxfgiwzw
`iuf aotxnufj nufx zaof+ z`fwf aotxnufoflzw `iuf lnz xfwvkzfj al il algxfiwf al z`f iggvxigqne enxfgiwzw,
Sf ikwn gnlgkvjf z`iz gnwz nufxxvlw ilj hflfz w`nxzeikkw ixf i txnhkfo hfgivwf2 (a! z`fq
kfij zn i Tixfzn/alfegaflz ikkngizanl ne xfwnvxgfw+ a,f, siwzf= (aa! z`fq kfij zn jfkiqw ilj
evxz`fx gnwz nufxxvlw ilj hflfz w`nxzeikkw= (aaa! z`fq jfwzihakarf txnbfgz oilicfoflz= ilj
(au! z`f txnhkfo aw cfzzalc haccfx+ hfgivwf txnbfgzw cfz haccfx,
AAA, Aotkagizanlw enx gnwzhflfz ilikqwaw
Gnwzhflfz ilikqwfw ilj wngaik ilj fluaxnloflzik aotigz iwwfwwoflzw ixf zqtagikkq iz z`fgnxf ne jngvoflzizanl ilj jfgawanl/oimalc enx oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw, Wvg` ilikqwfw
ixf hiwfj nl gnwz ilj zxieg enxfgiwzw kamf z`nwf jfwgxahfj ihnuf, Hvz ae sf gnohalf z`f jizi
al Zihkfw 9 ilj 8+ sf wff z`iz enx xiak il iufxicf gnwz nufxxvl ne ::,3 tfx gflz gnohalfw
7 Enkknsalc alzfxlizanlik gnluflzanl+aliggvxigq aw ofiwvxfj iw igzvik zxieg oalvw fwzaoizfj zxieg al tfxgflzicf
ne fwzaoizfj zxieg, Xiak zxieg aw ofiwvxfj iw lvohfx ne tiwwflcfxw= xnij zxieg iw lvohfx ne uf`agkfw, Z`f hiwf
qfix enx fwzaoizfj zxieg aw z`f qfix ne jfgawanl zn hvakj, Z`f enxfgiwzalc qfix aw z`f xwz evkk qfix ne ntfxizanlw, Zsn
wzizawzagik nvzkafxw ixf lnz algkvjfj `fxf, Enx jfziakw nl ofz`njnkncq+ wff Ekquhbfxc (8446h!,
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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7:0 Hflz Ekquhbfxc
saz` il iufxicf zxieg w`nxzeikk ne 69,: tfx gflz,: Enx xnijw+ il iufxicf gnwz nufxxvl ne
84,: tfx gflz gnohalfw saz` i ezqezq g`ilgf z`iz zxieg aw ikwn sxnlc hq onxf z`il
84 tfx gflz, Saz` fxxnxw ilj haiwfw ne wvg` oiclazvjf al z`f enxfgiwzw z`iz enxo i hiwaw enx
gnwzhflfz ilikqwfw+ wvg` ilikqwfw sakk ikwn+ saz` i `ac` jfcxff ne gfxzialzq+ hf wzxnlckq
oawkfijalc, Cixhicf al+ cixhicf nvz+ iw z`f wiqalc cnfw,
Iw i giwf al tnalz+ gnlwajfx z`f G`illfk zvllfk+ z`f knlcfwz vljfxsizfx xiak zvllfk al
Fvxntf+ gnllfgzalc Exilgf ilj z`f VM, Z`aw txnbfgz siw wnkj iw `ac`kq hflfgaik hnz`
lilgaikkq ilj fgnlnoagikkq, Iz z`f alazaik tvhkag neefxalc+ Fvxnzvllfk+ z`f txauizf nslfx ne
z`f zvllfk+ kvxfj alufwznxw hq zfkkalc z`fo z`iz 94 tfx gflz snvkj hf i xfiwnlihkf ikknsilgf
enx z`f tnwwahkf aotigz ne vlenxfwffl gaxgvowzilgfw nl gnlwzxvgzanl gnwzw,6 Al eigz+ gnwzw
sflz 04 tfx gflz nufx hvjcfz enx gnlwzxvgzanl ilj 9:4 tfx gflz enx lilgalc+ ofiwvxfj al xfik
zfxow exno z`f jfgawanl jizf, Xfuflvfw `iuf hffl `ike ne z`nwf enxfgiwzfj, Iw i gnlwfyvflgf
z`f txnbfgz `iw txnufj lnl/uaihkf+ saz` il alzfxlik xizf ne xfzvxl nl z`f alufwzoflz z`iz
aw lfcizauf+ iz 9:,6 tfx gflz, @nsfufx gnluflaflz enx z`f vwfxw ne z`f wfxuagfs`n ixf
`fiuakq wvhwajarfjz`f G`illfk zvllfk jfzxigzw exno z`f fgnlnoq alwzfij ne ijjalc zn az,
Il fgnlnoag ilj lilgaik fp tnwzfuikvizanl ne z`f txnbfgz+ s`ag` wqwzfoizagikkq gnotixfjigzvik saz` enxfgiwzfj gnwzw ilj hflfzw+ gnlgkvjfj z`iz z`f Hxazaw` Fgnlnoq snvkj `iuf
hffl hfzzfx nee `ij z`f Zvllfk lfufx hffl gnlwzxvgzfj (Ilcvfxi+ 8445+ t, 819!,
Hvz tfx`itw z`f G`illfk zvllfk siw bvwz i tafgf ne hij kvgm> Tfx`itw z`f lfpz waoakix
txnbfgz jaj hfzzfx> Lnz wn, Z`f lfpz oibnx zvllfk siw z`f Jilaw` Cxfiz Hfkz xiak zvllfk+ z`f
wfgnlj/knlcfwz vljfxsizfx xiak zvllfk al Fvxntf+ ntflfj 7 qfixw iezfx z`f G`illfk zvllfk,
@fxf gnlwzxvgzanl gnwz nufxxvl siw 984 tfx gflz al xfik zfxow+ ilj z`f txnbfgz txnufj lnl/
uaihkf fufl hfenxf az ntflfj, Nlkq hq gxnww/wvhwajaralc z`f zvllfk saz` xfuflvfw exno i
lfixhq onznxsiq hxajcf siw az tnwwahkf zn tiq enx z`f zvllfk, Jilaw` kfcawkiznxwilj z`f
cnufxloflz ilj z`f FV Gnooawwanlixf negaikkq icialwz gxnww/wvhwajafw, Hvz al z`aw giwf
z`fq sfxf `ittq ilj yvagm zn vwf z`f xfofjq zn wsfft i oibnx fohixxiwwoflz vljfx z`f
gixtfz2 z`f eigz z`iz igzvik hflfzw snvkj lfufx gnof fufl gknwf zn gnufxalc igzvik gnwzwenx z`f zvllfk+ ikz`nvc` ziptiqfxw `ij hffl znkj z`f fpigz nttnwazf s`fl z`fq sfxf iwmfj zn
vljfxsxazf z`f hakkanl/jnkkix jfhz ne z`f txnbfgz,
Z`f G`illfk ilj Cxfiz Hfkz zvllfkw ixf hnz` fpiotkfw ne i t`flnoflnl A engvw nl hfkns2
wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz, Exno il fgnlnoag tnalz ne uafs z`f txnbfgzw w`nvkj lfufx `iuf hffl
hvakz+ iz kfiwz lnz al z`f enxo z`fq sfxf, Z`fq wvxuaufj hfgivwf hflfzgnwz xizanw txfwflzfj
zn alufwznxw ilj kfcawkiznxw sfxf `vcfkq alizfj+ jfkahfxizfkq nx lnz, Z`f VM+ Exilgf+ ilj
Jfloixm ixf xag` gnvlzxafw ilj gil ieenxj zn hvakj lilgaik ilj fgnlnoag jawiwzfxw kamf z`aw,
Hvz az aw aotnxzilz zn vljfxwzilj z`iz gnvlzxafw jn lnz hfgnof xag` hq jnalc wn, Z`fq jn wn
s`fl z`fq `iuf hfgnof xag`,
Az aw fiwq zn oimf knlc kawzw ne txnbfgzw saz` waoakix gnwz ilj.nx hflfz txnhkfow (Ekquhbfxc+
8446i!, Zn oflzanl nlkq i efs+ al Iofxagi Hnwznlw Hac Jac+ KIw wvhsiq+ Wil ExilgawgnwHiq Hxajcf+ Jflufxw lfs Alzfxlizanlik Iaxtnxz+ ilj z`f Lfs Snnjxns Sakwnl Hxajcf al
Siw`alcznl+ JG gnof zn oalj+ lnz zn wtfim ne z`f xfhvakjalc ne Axiy, Al Hxazial+ z`f Knljnl
Zvhf tvhkagtxauizf tixzlfxw`at+ z`f Sfwz Gniwz Oial Kalf vtcxijf+ z`f Xiakzxigm wgik
gnkkitwf+ z`f Oakkfllavo Jnof+ z`f Wgnzzaw` tixkaioflz hvakjalc+ z`f @vohfx Hxajcf+ ilj
z`f gnwz nufxxvlw nl z`f 8498 Knljnl Nkqotagw `iuf hffl oibnx hnnljncckfw, Nz`fx lizanlw+
ilj fufl gazafw+ `iuf z`fax nsl knlc kawzw ne vljfxtfxenxoalc txnbfgzw,
: Enx fig` ne 98 vxhil xiak txnbfgzw+ sf `iuf jizi enx hnz` gnwz nufxxvl ilj zxieg w`nxzeikk, Enx z`fwf txnbfgzw
iufxicf gnwz nufxxvl aw :4,7 tfx gflz= iufxicf zxieg w`nxzeikk aw :3,0 tfx gflz,6 Yvnzfj exno Vljfx Sizfx Nufx Hvjcfz+ Z`f Fgnlnoawz+ 3 Ngznhfx 9101+ 730,
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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Wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz2 s`q z`f snxwz alexiwzxvgzvxf cfzw hvakzilj s`iz sf gil jn ihnvz az 7:1
Z`aw jnfw lnz w`ns z`f vwfkfwwlfww ne gnwzhflfz ilikqwaw iw wvg`+ lffjkfww zn wiq, Hvz
ae alenxofj jfgawanlw ixf z`f cnik+ z`fl gnluflzanlik fp ilzf gnwzhflfz ilikqwaw ovwz hf
wvttkfoflzfj saz` fotaxagik fp tnwz xawm ilikqwaw engvwfj nl jngvoflzfj vlgfxzialzafw al
z`f fwzaoizfw ne gnwzw ilj hflfzw z`iz flzfx alzn gnwzhflfz ilikqwaw, Enx i caufl oibnx
alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgz+ z`aw snvkj gnlwzazvzf i malj ne fotaxagik jvf jakacflgf ne azw gnwz
hflfz ilikqwaw+ wnofz`alc z`iz aw xixfkq gixxafj nvz znjiq,
Caufl z`f jizi txfwflzfj ihnuf+ i mfq xfgnoofljizanl enx jfgawanl/oimfxw+ alufwznxw+
ilj unzfxw s`n gixf ihnvz s`iz Sakkaiow (9110! gikkw `nlfwz lvohfxw aw z`iz z`fq w`nvkj
lnz zxvwz z`f hvjcfzw+ tizxnlicf enxfgiwzw+ ilj gnwzhflfz ilikqwfw txnjvgfj hq txnonzfxw
ne oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw, Aljftfljflz wzvjafw w`nvkj hf gixxafj nvz ilj+ icial+ wvg`
wzvjafw w`nvkj hf wzxnlc nl fotaxagikkq hiwfj xawm iwwfwwoflz, Vlzak lns az `iw hffl jaegvkz
nx aotnwwahkf zn gixxq nvz wvg` iwwfwwoflzw+ hfgivwf fotaxagikkq cxnvljfj ilj wzizawzagikkq
uikaj cvxfw ne xawm jaj lnz fpawz, Saz` z`f wzvjq jngvoflzfj ihnuf+ z`aw `iw g`ilcfj ilj
fotaxagik xawm iwwfwwoflz ilj oilicfoflz `iw hfcvl (Ekquhbfxc+ 8445!, Al ijjazanl zn wnvlj
jizi+ alwzazvzanlik g`fgmw ilj hikilgfw z`iz snvkj flenxgf iggnvlzihakazq al igznxw znsixjw
xawm ixf ikwn lfgfwwixq+ iw sf sakk wff hfkns,Al fgnlnoagw+ kixcf aliggvxigafw al enxfgiwzalc `iuf xfgflzkq kfj zn jawgvwwanlw ne z`f
lfgfwwazq ne xalc z`f enxfgiwzfx (Imfxkne ilj W`akkfx+ 8441+ t, 9:5!, Hfkns+ A ixcvf z`iz z`aw
oiq hf kfzzalc enxfgiwzfxw nee znn fiwakq, Wnof enxfgiwzw ixf wn cxnwwkq oawxftxfwflzfj z`iz
sf lffj zn gnlwajfx lnz nlkq xalc z`f enxfgiwzfxw hvz wvalc z`fo+ znntfx`itw fufl `iualc
i efs wfxuf zaof,
AU, Fptkialalc gnwz nufxxvlw ilj hflfz w`nxzeikkw
Z`xff oial zqtfw ne fptkilizanl fpawz z`iz gkiao zn iggnvlz enx gnwz nufxxvlw ilj hflfzw`nxzeikkw al oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw2 zfg`lagik+ twqg`nkncagik+ ilj tnkazagik/fgnlnoag,
Zfg`lagik fptkilizanlw iggnvlz enx gnwz nufxxvlw ilj hflfz w`nxzeikkw al zfxow ne aotfxefgz
enxfgiwzalc zfg`layvfw+ alijfyvizf jizi+ `nlfwz oawzimfw+ al`fxflz txnhkfow al txfjagzalc z`f
evzvxf+ kigm ne fptfxaflgf nl z`f tixz ne enxfgiwzfxw+ fzg, Z`aw aw z`f onwz gnoonl zqtf ne
fptkilizanl ne aliggvxigq al enxfgiwzw (Iwg`fx+ 9130= Onxxaw ilj @nvc`+ 9103= Sig`w+ 9114=
Ekquhbfxc fz ik,+ 8448+ 8446!, Zfg`lagik fxxnx oiq hf xfjvgfj nx fkaoalizfj hq jfufkntalc
hfzzfx enxfgiwzalc onjfkw+ hfzzfx jizi+ ilj onxf fptfxaflgfj enxfgiwzfxw+ iggnxjalc zn z`aw
fptkilizanl,
Twqg`nkncagik fptkilizanlw iggnvlz enx gnwz nufxxvlw ilj hflfz w`nxzeikkw al zfxow ne
s`iz twqg`nkncawzw gikk z`f tkillalc eikkigq ilj ntzaoawo haiw, Wvg` fptkilizanlw `iuf hffl
jfufkntfj hq Mi`lfoil ilj Zufxwmq (9131!= Mi`lfoil ilj Knuikkn (9117!+ ilj Knuikknilj Mi`lfoil (8447!, Al z`f cxat ne z`f tkillalc eikkigq+ oilicfxw oimf jfgawanlw hiwfj
nl jfkvwanlik ntzaoawo xiz`fx z`il nl i xizanlik sfac`zalc ne cialw+ knwwfw+ ilj txnhihakazafw,
Z`fq nufxfwzaoizf hflfzw ilj vljfxfwzaoizf gnwzw, Z`fq alunkvlzixakq wtal wgflixanw ne
wvggfww ilj nufxknnm z`f tnzflzaik enx oawzimfw ilj oawgikgvkizanlw, Iw i xfwvkz+ oilicfxw
tvxwvf alazaizaufw z`iz ixf vlkamfkq zn gnof al nl hvjcfz nx nl zaof+ nx zn jfkaufx z`f fptfgzfj
xfzvxlw, Nufx/ntzaoawo gil hf zxigfj zn gnclazauf haiwfw+ z`iz aw+ fxxnxw al z`f siq z`f oalj
txngfwwfw alenxoizanl, Z`fwf haiwfw ixf z`nvc`z zn hf vhayvaznvw+ hvz z`fax feefgzw gil hf
zfotfxfj hq waotkf xfikazq g`fgmw+ z`vw xfjvgalc z`f njjw z`iz tfntkf ilj nxcilarizanlw sakk
xvw` hkaljkq alzn vltxnzihkf alufwzoflzw ne onlfq ilj zaof,
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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764 Hflz Ekquhbfxc
Tnkazagik/fgnlnoag fptkilizanlw wff txnbfgz tkillfxw ilj txnonzfxw iw jfkahfxizfkq ilj
wzxizfcagikkq nufxfwzaoizalc hflfzw ilj vljfxfwzaoizalc gnwzw s`fl enxfgiwzalc z`f nvzgnofw
ne txnbfgzw, Z`fq jn z`aw al nxjfx zn algxfiwf z`f kamfka`nnj z`iz az aw z`fax txnbfgzw+ ilj lnz z`f
gnotfzazanlw+ z`iz cial ittxnuik ilj evljalc, Tnkazagik/fgnlnoag fptkilizanlw `iuf hffl wfz
enxz` hq Ekquhbfxc fzik, (8448+ 8446! ilj Sig w (9101+ 9114!, Iggnxjalczn wvg` fptkilizanlw
tkillfxw ilj txnonzfxw tvxtnwfkq wtal wgflixanw ne wvggfww ilj cknww nufx z`f tnzflzaik enx
eiakvxf, Icial+ z`aw xfwvkzw al z`f tvxwvaz ne uflzvxfw z`iz ixf vlkamfkq zn gnof al nl hvjcfz
nx nl zaof+ nx zn jfkaufx z`f txnoawfj hflfzw, Wzxizfcag oawxftxfwflzizanl gil hf zxigfj zn
icflgq txnhkfow ilj tnkazagik ilj nxcilarizanlik txfwwvxfwenx alwzilgf+ gnotfzazanl enx
wgixgf evljw nx bngmfqalc enx tnwazanlilj az aw xizanlik al z`aw wflwf, 5 Ae sf lns jflf i
kaf al z`f gnluflzanlik eiw`anl iw oimalc i wzizfoflz alzfljfj zn jfgfauf nz`fxw (Hnm+ 9131+
t, 9:= Gkaeef fz ik,+ 8444+ t, 7!+ sf wff z`iz jfkahfxizf oawxftxfwflzizanl ne gnwzw ilj hflfzw
aw kqalc+ ilj sf ixxauf iz nlf ne z`f onwz hiwag fptkilizanlw ne kqalc z`iz fpawzw2 kqalc tiqw
nee nx+ iz kfiwz+ tnkazagik ilj fgnlnoag icflzw hfkafuf az jnfw, S`fxf z`fxf aw tnkazagik txfwwvxf
z`fxf aw oawxftxfwflzizanl ilj kqalc+ iggnxjalc zn z`aw fptkilizanl+ hvz oawxftxfwflzizanl ilj
kqalc gil hf onjfxizfj hq ofiwvxfw ne iggnvlzihakazq,@ns sfkk jnfw fig` ne z`f z`xff fptkilizanlw ne enxfgiwzalc aliggvxigqzfg`lagik+ twqg`n/
kncagik+ ilj tnkazagik/fgnlnoagiggnvlz enx z`f jizi nl gnwz nufxxvlw ilj hflfz w`nxzeikkw
txfwflzfj fixkafx> Z`aw aw z`f yvfwzanl zn hf ilwsfxfj hfkns,
Zfg`lagik fptkilizanlw `iuf+ iw oflzanlfj+ cialfj sajfwtxfij gxfjflgf ionlc enxfgiwzfxw
ilj txnbfgz oilicfxw (Iwg`fx+ 9130= Ekquhbfxc fz ik,+ 8448+ 8446!, Az zvxlw nvz+ `nsfufx+ z`iz
wvg` gxfjflgf gnvkj oialkq hf vt`fkj hfgivwf+ vlzak lns+ wiotkfw `iuf hffl znn woikk zn
ikkns zfwzw hq wzizawzagik ofz`njw, Z`f jizi txfwflzfj ihnuf+ s`ag` gnof exno z`f xwz kixcf/
wiotkf wzvjq al z`f fkj+ kfij vw zn xfbfgz zfg`lagik fptkilizanlw ne enxfgiwzalc aliggvxigq,
Wvg` fptkilizanlw jn lnz z z`f jizi sfkk, Eaxwz+ ae oawkfijalc enxfgiwzw sfxf zxvkq givwfj hq
zfg`lagik alijfyvigafw+ waotkf oawzimfw+ ilj al`fxflz txnhkfow saz txfjagzalc z`f evzvxf+ sf
snvkj fptfgz i kfww haiwfjjawzxahvzanlne fxxnxw al enxfgiwzw ixnvljrfxn, Al eigz+ sf `iuf envljsaz` `ac` wzizawzagik waclagilgf z`iz enx envx nvz ne uf jawzxahvzanlw ne enxfgiwzalc fxxnxw+
z`f jawzxahvzanlw `iuf i ofil wzizawzagikkq jaeefxflz exno rfxn, Nlkq z`f jizi enx aliggvxigq al
xnij zxieg enxfgiwzw `iuf i wzizawzagik jawzxahvzanl z`iz wffow zn z saz` fptkilizanlw al zfxow
ne zfg`lagik enxfgiwzalc fxxnx, Wfgnlj+ ae aotfxefgz zfg`layvfw+ alijfyvizf jizi+ ilj kigm ne
fptfxaflgf sfxf z`f oial fptkilizanlw ne aliggvxigafw+ sf snvkj fptfgz il aotxnufoflz
al iggvxigq nufx zaof+ walgf al i txnefwwanlik wfzzalc fxxnxw ilj z`fax wnvxgfw snvkj hf
xfgnclarfj ilj ijjxfwwfj z`xnvc` z`f xflfoflz ne jizi gnkkfgzanl+ enxfgiwzalc ofz`njw+ fzg,
Wvhwzilzaik xfwnvxgfw `iuf+ al eigz+ hffl wtflz nufx wfufxik jfgijfw nl aotxnualc jizi ilj
ofz`njw, Wzakk nvx jizi w`ns z`iz z`aw iw `ij ln feefgz nl z`f iggvxigq ne enxfgiwzw, Zfg`lagik
eigznxw+ z`fxfenxf+ jn lnz ittfix zn fptkial z`f jizi, Az aw lnz wn/gikkfj enxfgiwzalc fxxnxw
nx z`fax givwfw z`iz lffj fptkialalc, Az aw z`f eigz z`iz+ al i kixcf oibnxazq ne giwfw+ gnwzwixf vljfxfwzaoizfj ilj hflfzw nufxfwzaoizfj, Sf oiq icxff saz` txntnlflzw ne zfg`lagik
fptkilizanlw z`iz az aw+ enx fpiotkf+ aotnwwahkf zn txfjagz enx z`f aljauajvik txnbfgz fpigzkq
s`ag` cfnkncagik+ fluaxnloflzik+ nx wiefzq txnhkfow sakk ittfix ilj oimf gnwzw wnix, Hvz
sf oialzial z`iz az aw tnwwahkf zn txfjagz z`f xawm+ hiwfj nl fptfxaflgf exno nz`fx txnbfgzw+
z`izwnof wvg` txnhkfow sakk `ivlz i txnbfgz ilj `ns z`aw sakk ieefgz gnwzw, Sf ikwn oialzial
5 Enx il alzfxtxfzizanl ne wzxizfcag oawxftxfwflzizanl al zfxow ne icflgq txnhkfow ilj xflz/wffmalc hf`iuanvx+
wff Ekquhbfxc fz ik, (8441!,
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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Wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz2 s`q z`f snxwz alexiwzxvgzvxf cfzw hvakzilj s`iz sf gil jn ihnvz az 769
z`iz wvg` xawm gil ilj w`nvkj hf iggnvlzfj enx al enxfgiwzw ne gnwzw+ hvz zqtagikkq aw lnz, Enx
zfg`lagik fptkilizanlw zn hf uikaj+ z`fq snvkj `iuf zn fptkial s`q enxfgiwzw ixf wn gnlwawzflz
al aclnxalc gnwz ilj hflfz xawmw nufx zaof+ kngizanl+ ilj txnbfgz zqtf,
Twqg`nkncagik fptkilizanlw hfzzfx z z`f jizi, Z`f fpawzflgf ne ntzaoawo haiw al oilicfxw
ilj txnonzfxw snvkj xfwvkz al igzvik gnwzw hfalc `ac`fx ilj igzvik hflfzw knsfx z`il z`nwf
enxfgiwzfj, Gnlwfyvflzkq+ z`f fpawzflgf ne ntzaoawo haiw snvkj hf ihkf zn iggnvlz+ al s`nkf
nx al tixz+ enx z`f tfgvkaix haiw envlj al onwz ne nvx jizi, Alzfxfwzalckq+ `nsfufx+ s`fl
qnv iwm enxfgiwzfxw ihnvz givwfw enx enxfgiwzalc aliggvxigafw al igzvik enxfgiwzw+ z`fq jn
lnz oflzanl ntzaoawo haiw iw i oial givwf ne aliggvxigq (Ekquhbfxc fz ik,+ 8446+ tt, 970
:4!, Z`aw gnvkj ne gnvxwf hf hfgivwf ntzaoawo haiw aw vlgnlwganvw ilj z`vw lnz xffgzfj
hq enxfgiwzfxw, Iezfx ikk+ z`fxf aw i kixcf hnjq ne fptfxaoflzik fuajflgf enx z`f fpawzflgf
ne ntzaoawo haiw (Hvf`kfx fz ik,+ 911:= Hvf`kfx fz ik,+ 9113= Lfshq/Gkixm fz ik,+ 8448!,
@nsfufx+ z`f fptfxaoflzik jizi ixf oialkq exno waotkf+ lnl/txnefwwanlik wfzzalcw, Z`aw aw i
txnhkfo enx twqg`nkncagik fptkilizanlw+ hfgivwf az xfoialw il ntfl yvfwzanl s`fz`fx z`fq
ixf cflfxik ilj ittkq hfqnlj wvg` waotkf wfzzalcw, Ntzaoawo haiw snvkj hf il aotnxzilz
ilj gxfjahkf fptkilizanl ne vljfxfwzaoizfj gnwzw ilj nufxfwzaoizfj hflfzw al alexiwzxvgzvxfenxfgiwzalc ae fwzaoizfw sfxf txnjvgfj hq alfptfxaflgfj enxfgiwzfxw+ a,f, tfxwnlw s`n sfxf
fwzaoizalc gnwzw ilj hflfzw enx z`f xwz nx wfgnlj zaof ilj s`n sfxf z`vw alfptfxaflgfj al
z`f xfikazafw ne oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf jfufkntoflz ilj sfxf lnz jxisalc nl z`f mlnskfjcf ilj
wmakkw ne onxf fptfxaflgfj gnkkficvfw, Wvg` wazvizanlw oiq fpawz ilj oiq fptkial aljauajvik
giwfw ne aliggvxigq, Hvz+ caufl z`f eigz z`iz al onjfxl wngafzq az aw i jflalc g`ixigzfxawzag
ne txnefwwanlik fptfxzawf z`iz az aw gnlwzilzkq zfwzfjz xnvc` wgaflzag ilikqwaw+ gxazagik
iwwfwwoflz+ ilj tffx xfuafsal nxjfx zn xnnz nvz haiw ilj fxxnx+ az wffow vlkamfkq z`iz i
s`nkf txnefwwanl ne enxfgiwzalc fptfxzw snvkj gnlzalvf zn oimf z`f wiof oawzimfw jfgijf
iezfx jfgijf alwzfij ne kfixlalc exno z`fax igzanlw, Kfixlalc snvkj xfwvkz al z`f xfjvgzanl+
ae lnz fkaoalizanl+ ne ntzaoawo haiw+ s`ag` snvkj z`fl xfwvkz al fwzaoizfw hfgnoalc onxf
iggvxizf nufx zaof, Hvz nvx jizi gkfixkq w`ns z`iz z`aw `iw lnz `ittflfj, Z`f txnefwwanlne enxfgiwzfxw snvkj+ aljffj+ `iuf zn hf il ntzaoawzagilj lnl/txnefwwanlikcxnvt zn
mfft z`fax ntzaoawo haiw z`xnvc`nvz z`f 34/qfix tfxanj nvx wzvjq gnufxw enx gnwzw+ ilj z`f
74/qfix tfxanj gnufxfj enx tizxnlicf+ ilj lnz kfixl z`iz z`fq sfxf jfgfaualc z`fowfkufw
ilj nz`fxw hq vljfxfwzaoizalc gnwzw ilj nufxfwzaoizalc hflfzw, Z`aw snvkj iggnvlz enx
z`f jizi+ hvz aw lnz i gxfjahkf fptkilizanl, Z`fxfenxf+ nl z`f hiwaw ne nvx jizi+ sf ixf kfj
zn xfbfgz ntzaoawo haiw iw i txaoixq ilj walckf givwf ne gnwz vljfxfwzaoizanl ilj hflfz
nufxfwzaoizanl,
Ealikkq+ tnkazagik/fgnlnoag fptkilizanlw ilj wzxizfcag oawxftxfwflzizanl iggnvlz sfkk enx
z`f wqwzfoizag vljfxfwzaoizanl ne gnwzw ilj nufxfwzaoizanl ne hflfzw envlj al z`f jizi, I
wzxizfcag fwzaoizf ne gnwzw snvkj hf kns+ xfwvkzalc al gnwz nufxxvl+ s`fxfiw i wzxizfcag fwzaoizf
ne hflfzw snvkj hf `ac`+ xfwvkzalc al hflfz w`nxzeikkw, I mfq yvfwzanl enx fptkilizanlw alzfxow ne wzxizfcag oawxftxfwflzizanl aw s`fz`fx fwzaoizfw ne gnwzw ilj hflfzw ixf alzflzanlikkq
haiwfj zn wfxuf z`f alzfxfwzw ne txnonzfxw al cfzzalc txnbfgzw wzixzfj, Z`aw yvfwzanl xiawfw z`f
jaegvkz awwvf ne kqalc, Yvfwzanlw ne kqalc ixf lnznxanvwkq `ixj zn ilwsfx+ hfgivwf hq jflazanl
i kaf gnlwawzw al oimalc i wzizfoflz alzfljfj zn jfgfauf nz`fxw+ ilj al nxjfx zn fwzihkaw`
s`fz`fx kqalc `iw zimfl tkigf+ nlf ovwz z`fxfenxf mlns z`f alzflzanlw ne igznxw, Enx kfcik+
fgnlnoag+ onxik+ ilj nz`fx xfiwnlw+ ae txnonzfxw ilj oilicfxw `iuf alzflzanlikkq gnnmfj
fwzaoizfw ne gnwzw ilj hflfzw zn cfz i txnbfgz wzixzfj+ z`fq ixf vlkamfkq zn zfkk xfwfixg`fxw nx
nz`fxw enxoikkq z`iz z`aw aw z`f giwf, Jfwtazf wvg` txnhkfow+ zsn wzvjafw fpawz z`iz wvggffjfj
al cfzzalc enxfgiwzfxw ilj oilicfxw zn zikm ihnvz wzxizfcag oawxftxfwflzizanl+ nlf exno z`f
VM (Ekquhbfxc ilj GNSA+ 844:! ilj nlf exno z`f VWI (Sig`w+ 9114!,
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
9/24
768 Hflz Ekquhbfxc
U, Wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz
Ekquhbfxc ilj GNSA (844:! alzfxuafsfj tvhkag negaikw+ tkillfxw+ ilj gnlwvkzilzw s`n
`ij hffl alunkufj al z`f jfufkntoflz ne kixcf VM zxilwtnxzizanl alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw, I
tkillfx saz` i kngik zxilwtnxzizanl ivz`nxazq aw zqtagik ne `ns xfwtnljflzw fptkialfj z`f hiwag
ofg`ilawo ne gnwz vljfxfwzaoizanl2
Qnv sakk nezfl iw i tkillfx mlns z`f xfik gnwzw, Qnv mlns z`iz z`f hvjcfz aw znn kns
hvz az aw jaegvkz zn tiww wvg` i ofwwicf zn z`f gnvlwfkknxw ]tnkazagailw_ ilj z`f txauizf
igznxw, Z`fq mlns z`iz `ac` gnwzw xfjvgf z`f g`ilgfw ne lizanlik evljalc,
Fptfxaflgfj txnefwwanlikw kamf z`f alzfxuafsff mlns z`iz nvzzvxl gnwzw sakk hf `ac`fx z`il
fwzaoizfj gnwzw+ hvz hfgivwf ne tnkazagik txfwwvxf zn wfgvxf evljalc enx txnbfgzw z`fq `nkj
higm z`aw mlnskfjcf+ s`ag` aw wffl iw jfzxaoflzik zn z`f nhbfgzauf ne nhzialalc evljalc,
Waoakixkq+ il alzfxuafsff fptkialfj z`f hiwag ofg`ilawo ne hflfz nufxfwzaoizanl2
Z`f wqwzfo flgnvxicfw tfntkf zn engvw nl z`f hflfzwhfgivwf vlzak lns z`fxf `iwlnz hffl ovg` engvw nl z`f yvikazq ne xawm ilikqwaw ilj z`f xnhvwzlfww ]ne txnbfgzw_, Az aw
z`fxfenxf aotnxzilz enx txnbfgz txnonzfxw zn jfonlwzxizf ikk z`f hflfzw+ ikwn hfgivwf
z`f txnbfgz txnonzfxw mlns z`iz z`fax txnbfgz aw vt icialwz nz`fx txnbfgzw ilj gnotfzalc
enx wgixgf xfwnvxgfw,
Gnotfzazanl hfzsffl txnbfgzw ilj ivz`nxazafw gxfizfw tnkazagik ilj nxcilarizanlik txfwwvxfw
z`iz al zvxl gxfizf il algflzauf wzxvgzvxf z`iz oimfw az xizanlik enx txnbfgz txnonzfxw zn
fot`iwarf hflfzw ilj jf/fot`iwarf gnwzw ilj xawmw, I txnbfgz z`iz knnmw `ac`kq hflfgaik
nl titfx aw onxf kamfkq zn cfz evljfj z`il nlf z`iz jnfw lnz,
Wtfgaikarfj txauizf gnlwvkzilgq gnotilafw ixf zqtagikkq flcicfj zn `fkt jfufknt txnbfgz
txntnwikw, Al cflfxik+ z`f alzfxuafsffw envlj z`iz gnlwvkzilzw w`nsfj `ac` txnefwwanlikwziljixjw ilj alzfcxazq, Hvz alzfxuafsffw ikwn envlj z`iz gnlwvkzilzw ittfixfj zn engvw nl
bvwzaeqalc txnbfgzw xiz`fx z`il gxazagikkq wgxvzalaralc z`fo, I txnbfgz oilicfx fptkialfj2
Onwz jfgflz gnlwvkzilzw sakk sxazf nee nhuanvwkq hij txnbfgzw hvz z`fxf aw i cxfq rnlf
ilj A z`alm oilq gnlwvkzilzw al xfikazq `iuf il algflzauf zn zxq zn txnknlc z`f kaef ne
txnbfgzw s`ag` ofilw zn cfz z`fo z`xnvc` z`f hvwalfww giwf, Az aw al kalf saz` z`fax lffj
zn oimf i txnz,
Z`f gnlwvkzilzw alzfxuafsfj gnlxofj z`iz ittxiawikw nezfl engvwfj onxf nl hflfzw z`il
nl gnwzw, Hvz z`fq wiaj z aw siw iz z`f xfyvfwz ne gkaflzw ilj z`iz enx wtfgag txnbfgzw jawgvwwfj
z`fxf siw il algxfjahkf xvw` zn wff txnbfgzw xfikarfj,
Nlf zqtagik alzfxuafsff wis txnbfgz ittxnuik iw tiwwalc z`f zfwz ilj txfgawfkq wvoofjvt z`f xvkfw ne z`f ciof kamf z`aw2 Azw ikk ihnvz tiwwalc z`f zfwz ]ne txnbfgz ittxnuik_, Qnv ixf
al+ s`fl qnv ixf al, Az ofilw z`iz z`fxf aw wn ovg` engvw nl w`nsalc z`f txnbfgz iz azw hfwz iz
z`aw wzicf,
Al wvo+ z`f VM wzvjq w`nsw z`iz wzxnlc alzfxfwzw ilj wzxnlc algflzaufw fpawz iz z`f txnbfgz/
ittxnuik wzicf zn txfwflz txnbfgzw iw eiunvxihkq iw tnwwahkfz iz aw+ saz hflfzw fot`iwarfj
ilj gnwzw ilj xawmw jf/fot`iwarfj, Kngik ivz`nxazafw+ kngik jfufkntfxw ilj kilj nslfxw+ kngik
kihnvx vlanlw+ kngik tnkazagailw+ kngik negaikw+ kngik OTw+ ilj gnlwvkzilzw ikk wzilj zn hflfz
exno i txnbfgz z`iz knnmw eiunvxihkf nl titfx ilj z`fq `iuf kazzkf algflzauf igzaufkq zn iunaj
haiw al fwzaoizfw ne hflfzw+ gnwzw+ ilj xawmw, Lizanlik hnjafw+ wvg` iw gfxzial tixzw ne z`f
Jftixzoflz enx Zxilwtnxz ilj z`f Oalawzxq ne Ealilgf s`n evlj ilj nufxwff txnbfgzw+ oiq
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
10/24
Wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz2 s`q z`f snxwz alexiwzxvgzvxf cfzw hvakzilj s`iz sf gil jn ihnvz az 767
`iuf il alzfxfwz al onxf xfikawzag ittxiawikw+ hvz wn eix z`fq `iuf `ij kazzkf wvggfww al ig`afualc
wvg` xfikawo+ ikz`nvc` z`f wazvizanl oiq hf g`ilcalc saz` z`f alazaizaufw zn gvxh haiw wfz nvz
al @O Zxfiwvxq (8447! ilj VM Jftixzoflz enx Zxilwtnxz (8445!,
Sig`w (9105+ 9114! envlj waoakix xfwvkzw enx zxilwaz tkillalc al z`f VWI, Zimfl zncfz`fx+
z`f VM ilj VW wzvjafw hnz` iggnvlz sfkk enx fpawzalc jizi nl gnwz vljfxfwzaoizanl ilj
hflfz nufxfwzaoizanl, Hnz` wzvjafw eikwaeq z`f lnzanl z`iz al wazvizanlw saz` `ac` tnkazagik
ilj nxcilarizanlik txfwwvxf z`f vljfxfwzaoizanl ne gnwzw ilj nufxfwzaoizanl ne hflfzw aw
givwfj hq lnl/alzflzanlik zfg`lagik fxxnx nx ntzaoawo haiw, Hnz` wzvjafw wvttnxz z`f uafs
z`iz al wvg` wazvizanlw txnonzfxw ilj enxfgiwzfxw alzflzanlikkq vwf z`f enkknsalc enxovki al
nxjfx zn wfgvxf ittxnuik ilj evljalc enx z`fax txnbfgzw2
vljfxfwzaoizfj gnwzw- nufxfwzaoizfj hflfzw ? evljalc
Vwalc z`aw enxovki+ ilj z`vw w`nsalc z`f txnbfgz iz azw hfwz iw nlf alzfxuafsff wiaj ihnuf+
xfwvkzw al il alufxzfj Jixsalawo+ a,f z`f wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz, Az aw lnz z`f hfwz txnbfgzw
z`iz cfz aotkfoflzfj+ hvz z`f txnbfgzw z`iz knnm hfwz nl titfx, Ilj z`f txnbfgzw z`iz knnm
hfwz nl titfx ixf z`f txnbfgzw saz` z`f kixcfwz gnwz vljfxfwzaoizfw ilj hflfz nufxfwzaoizfw+nz`fx z`alcw hfalc fyvik, Hvz z`f kixcfx z`f gnwz vljfxfwzaoizf nl titfx+ z`f cxfizfx z`f
gnwz nufxxvl al txigzagf, Ilj z`f kixcfx z`f nufxfwzaoizf ne hflfzw+ z`f cxfizfx z`f hflfz
w`nxzeikk, Z`fxfenxf z`f txnbfgzw z`iz `iuf hffl oijf zn knnm hfwz nl titfx al z`aw oillfx
hfgnof z`f snxwz+ nx vlzzfwz+ txnbfgzw al xfikazq+ al z`f wflwf z`iz z`fq ixf z`f ufxq txnbfgzw
z`iz sakk flgnvlzfx onwz txnhkfow jvxalc gnlwzxvgzanl ilj ntfxizanlw al zfxow ne z`f kixcfwz
gnwz nufxxvlw+ hflfz w`nxzeikkw+ ilj xawmw ne lnl/uaihakazq, Z`fq `iuf hffl jfwaclfj kamf z`iz+
iw jawiwzfxw siazalc zn `ittfl,
UA, Z`f nvzwajf uafs
S`fl gnlzfotkizalc s`iz txnbfgz oilicfxw gil jn zn `fkt xfenxo gnof ihnvz+ sf lffj zn
jawzalcvaw` hfzsffl zsn evljioflzikkq jaeefxflz wazvizanlw2 (a! txnbfgz oilicfxw gnlwajfx az
aotnxzilz zn cfz fwzaoizfw ne gnwzw+ hflfzw+ ilj xawmw xac`z= ilj (aa! txnbfgz oilicfxw jn
lnz gnlwajfx az aotnxzilz zn cfz fwzaoizfw xac`z+ hfgivwf ntzaoawzag fwzaoizfw ixf wffl iw i
lfgfwwixq ofilw zn cfzzalc txnbfgzw wzixzfj, Z`f xwz wazvizanl aw z`f fiwafx nlf zn jfik saz`
ilj+ `fxf+ hfzzfx ofz`njnkncq sakk cn i knlc siq al aotxnualc txnbfgz oilicfoflz, Z`f
wfgnlj wazvizanl aw onxf jaegvkz+ ilj onxf gnoonl enx tnkazagik txnbfgzw iw sf wis ihnuf,
@fxf+ hfzzfx cnufxlilgf saz` g`ilcfj algflzaufw aw fwwflzaik al nxjfx zn xfsixj `nlfwzq ilj
tvlaw` jfgftzanl+ s`fxf znjiqw algflzaufw nezfl jn z`f fpigz nttnwazf,
Z`vw zsn oial ofiwvxfw ne xfenxo ixf (a! hfzzfx ofz`njw enx fwzaoizalc gnwzw+ hflfzw+ilj xawmw+ ilj (aa! aotxnufj cnufxlilgf, Hfzzfx ofz`njw ixf gnufxfj al z`aw wfgzanl+ aotxnufj
cnufxlilgf al z`f lfpz,
Ae txnbfgz oilicfxw cflvalfkq gnlwajfx az aotnxzilz zn cfz fwzaoizfw ne gnwzw+ hflfzw+
ilj xawmw xac`z+ az aw xfgnoofljfj z`fq vwf i txnoawalc lfs ofz`nj gikkfj xfefxflgf
gkiww enxfgiwzalc zn xfjvgf aliggvxigq ilj haiw, Z`aw ofz`nj siw nxacalikkq jfufkntfj zn
gnotflwizf enx z`f zqtf ne gnclazauf haiw al `voil enxfgiwzalc z`iz Txalgfznl twqg`nkncawz
Jilafk Mi`lfoil envlj al `aw Lnhfk txarf/sallalc snxm nl haiw al fgnlnoag enxfgiwzalc
(Mi`lfoil+ 911:= Mi`lfoil ilj Zufxwmq+ 9131!, Xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwzalc `iw txnufl
onxf iggvxizf z`il gnluflzanlik enxfgiwzalc, Az siw vwfj al txnbfgz oilicfoflz al txigzagf
enx z`f xwz zaof al 844: (Ekquhbfxc ilj GNSA+ 844:!= al 8446 z`f ofz`nj siw negaikkq
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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76: Hflz Ekquhbfxc
fljnxwfj hq z`f Iofxagil Tkillalc Iwwngaizanl (8446!= ilj walgf z`fl az `iw hffl vwfj
hq cnufxloflzw ilj txauizf gnotilafw al z`f VM+ z`f Lfz`fxkiljw+ Jfloixm+ Wsazrfxkilj+
Ivwzxikai+ ilj Wnvz` Iexagi+ ionlc nz`fxw,
Enx xfiwnlw ne wtigf+ `fxf A txfwflz nlkq il nvzkalf ne z`f ofz`nj+ hiwfj oialkq nl Knuikkn
ilj Mi`lfoil (8447! ilj Ekquhbfxc (8445!, Xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwzalc gnlwawzw al zimalc
i wn/gikkfj nvzwajf uafs nl z`f tixzagvkix txnbfgz hfalc enxfgiwzfj, Z`f nvzwajf uafs aw
fwzihkaw`fj nl z`f hiwaw ne alenxoizanl exno i gkiww ne waoakix txnbfgzw, Z`f nvzwajf uafs
jnfw lnz zxq zn enxfgiwz z`f wtfgag vlgfxzial fuflzw z`iz sakk ieefgz z`f tixzagvkix txnbfgz+ hvz
alwzfij tkigfw z`f txnbfgz al i wzizawzagik jawzxahvzanl ne nvzgnofw exno z`aw gkiww ne xfefxflgf
txnbfgzw, Xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwzalc xfyvaxfw z`f enkknsalc z`xff wzftw enx z`f aljauajvik
txnbfgz2
(a! ajflzagizanl ne i xfkfuilz xfefxflgf gkiww ne tiwz txnbfgzw, Z`f gkiww ovwz hf hxnij
flnvc` zn hf wzizawzagikkq ofilalcevk hvz lixxns flnvc` zn hf zxvkq gnotixihkf saz`
z`f wtfgag txnbfgz=
(aa! fwzihkaw alc i txnhihakazq jawzxahvzanl enx z`f wfkfgzfj xfefxflgf gkiww, Z`aw xfyvaxfw ig/gfww zn gxfjahkf+ fotaxagik jizi enx i wvegaflz lvohfx ne txnbfgzw saz`al z`f xfefxflgf
gkiww zn oimf wzizawzagikkq ofilalcevk gnlgkvwanlw= ilj
(aaa! gnotixalc z`f wtfgag txnbfgz saz z`f xfefxflgf gkiww jawzxahvzanl+ al nxjfx zn fwzihkaw`
z`f onwz kamfkq nvzgnof enx z`f wtfgag txnbfgz,
Jilafk Mi`lfoil xfkizfw z`f enkknsalc wznxq ihnvz gvxxagvkvo tkillalc zn akkvwzxizf xfefxflgf
gkiww enxfgiwzalc al txigzagf(Knuikkn iljMi`lfoil+ 8447+ t, 59!, Wnof qfixw icn+ Mi`lfoil
siw alunkufj al i txnbfgz zn jfufknt i gvxxagvkvo enx i lfs wvhbfgz ixfi enx `ac` wg`nnkw al
Awxifk, Z`f txnbfgz siw gixxafj nvz hq i zfio ne igijfoagw ilj zfig`fxw, Al zaof+ z`f zfio
hfcil zn jawgvww `ns knlc z`f txnbfgz snvkj zimf zn gnotkfzf, Fufxqnlf nl z`f zfio siw
iwmfj zn sxazf nl i wkat ne titfx z`f lvohfx ne onlz`w lffjfj zn law` ilj xftnxz z`f txnbfgz,
Z`f fwzaoizfw xilcfj exno 90 zn 74 onlz`w, Nlf ne z`f zfio ofohfxwi jawzalcvaw`fjfptfxz al gvxxagvkvo jfufkntoflzsiw z`fl tnwfj i g`ikkflcf hq ilnz`fx zfio ofohfx zn
xfgikk iw oilq txnbfgzw waoakix zn z`faxw iw tnwwahkf ilj zn z`alm ne z`fwf txnbfgzw iw z`fq
sfxf al i wzicf gnotixihkf zn z`fax txnbfgz, @ns knlc jaj az zimf z`fo iz z`iz tnalz zn xfig`
gnotkfzanl>+ z`f fptfxz siw iwmfj, Iezfx i s akf `f ilwsfxfj+ saz wnof jawgnoenxz+ z`iz lnz
ikk z`f gnotixihkf zfiow `f gnvkj z`alm ne fufx jaj gnotkfzf z`fax ziwm, Ihnvz :4 tfx gflz ne
z`fo fuflzvikkq ciuf vt, Ne z`nwf xfoialalc+ z`f fptfxz gnvkj lnz z alm ne ilq z`iz gnotkfzfj
z`fax ziwm al kfww z`il 3 qfixw+ lnx ne ilq z`iz znnm onxf z`il zfl, Z`f fptfxz siw z`fl iwmfj
ae `f `ij xfiwnl zn hfkafuf z`iz z`f txfwflz zfio siw onxf wmakkfj al gvxxagvkvo jfufkntoflz
z`il z`f fixkafx nlfw `ij hffl, Z`f fptfxz wiaj ln+ `f jaj lnz wff ilq xfkfuilz eigznx z`iz
jawzalcvaw`fj z`aw zfio eiunvxihkq exno z`f zfiow `f `ij hffl z`almalc ihnvz, @aw aotxfwwanl
siw z`iz z`f txfwflz zfio siw wkac`zkq hfkns iufxicf al zfxow ne xfwnvxgfw ilj tnzflzaik, Z`fsawf jfgawanl iz z`aw tnalz snvkj txnhihkq `iuf hffl enx z`f zfio zn hxfim vt+ iggnxjalc zn
Mi`lfoil, Alwzfij+ z`f ofohfxw aclnxfj z`f tfwwaoawzag alenxoizanl ilj txngffjfj saz`
z`f txnbfgz, Z`fq likkq gnotkfzfj z`f txnbfgz 0 qfixw kizfx+ ilj z`fax feenxzw sflz kixcfkq
siwzfjz`f xfwvkzalc gvxxagvkvo siw xixfkq vwfj,
Al z`aw fpiotkf+ z`f gvxxagvkvo fptfxz oijf zsn enxfgiwzw enx z`f wiof txnhkfo ilj
ixxaufj iz ufxq jaeefxflz ilwsfxw, Z`f xwz enxfgiwz siw z`f alwajf uafs= z`f wfgnlj siw z`f
nvzwajf uafs+ nx z`f xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwz, Z`f alwajf uafs aw z`f nlf z`iz z`f fptfxz ilj z`f
nz`fx zfio ofohfxw ijntzfj, Z`fq oijf enxfgiwzw hq engvwalc zac`zkq nl z`f giwf iz `ilj+
gnlwajfxalc azw nhbfgzauf+ z`f xfwnvxgfw z`fq hxnvc`z zn az+ ilj z`f nhwzigkfw zn azw gnotkfzanl,
Z`fq gnlwzxvgzfj al z`fax oaljw wgflixanw ne z`fax gnoalc txncxfww ilj fpzxitnkizfj gvxxflz
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
12/24
Wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz2 s`q z`f snxwz alexiwzxvgzvxf cfzw hvakzilj s`iz sf gil jn ihnvz az 766
Eacvxf 92 S`iz xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwzalc jnfw+ al wzizawzagailw kilcvicf
zxfljw alzn z`f evzvxf, Z`f xfwvkzalc enxfgiwzw+ fufl z`f onwz gnlwfxuizauf nlfw+ sfxf nufxkq
ntzaoawzag, Z`f nvzwajf uafs aw z`f nlf txnunmfj hq z`f yvfwzanl zn z`f gvxxagvkvo fptfxz, Azgnotkfzfkq aclnxfj z`f jfziakw ne z`f txnbfgz iz `ilj+ ilj az alunkufj ln izzfotz iz enxfgiwzalc
z`f fuflzw z`iz snvkj alvflgf z`f txnbfgzw evzvxf gnvxwf, Alwzfij+ az fpioalfj z`f fptfxaflgfw
ne i gkiww ne waoakix txnbfgzw+ kiaj nvz i xnvc` jawzxahvzanl ne nvzgnofw enx z`aw xfefxflgf gkiww+
ilj z`fl tnwazanlfj z`f gvxxflz txnbfgz al z`iz jawzxahvzanl, Z`f xfwvkzalc enxfgiwz+ iw az zvxlfj
nvz+ siw ovg` onxf iggvxizf,
Eacvxf 9 w`nsw s`iz xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwzalc jnfw al wzizawzagailw kilcvicf, Eaxwz+ xfefx/
flgf gkiww enxfgiwzalc xfcxfwwfw z`f hfwz cvfww ne z`f gnluflzanlik enxfgiwz`fxf z`f txnbfgz
txnonzfxw enxfgiwz+ aljagizfj hq z`f jixmfx gvxufznsixjw z`f iufxicf ne z`f xfefxflgf gkiww,
Z`f jawzxahvzanl ne nvzgnofw al z`f xfefxflgf gkiww aw aljagizfj hq z`f kac`zfx gvxuf, Wfgnlj+
xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwzalc fptiljw z`f fwzaoizf ne alzfxuik al z`f gnluflzanlik enxfgiwz zn
z`f alzfxuik ne z`f xfefxflgf gkiww,Saz` il fpiotkf exno alexiwzxvgzvxf txnuawanl+ tkillfxw al i gazq txftixalc zn hvakj i
lfs wvhsiq snvkj+ xwz+ fwzihkaw` i xfefxflgf gkiww ne gnotixihkf txnbfgzw, Z`aw gnvkj hf
z`f xfkfuilz xiak txnbfgzw exno z`f wiotkf jfwgxahfj al Zihkf 9, Z`xnvc` wzizawzagik ilj nz`fx
ilikqwfw z`f tkillfxw snvkj fwzihkaw` s`ag` txnbfgzw zn algkvjf al z`f xfefxflgf gkiww+ a,f,
txnbfgzw z`iz sfxf+ aljffj+ gnotixihkf zn z`f nlf hfalc tkillfj ilj zn fig` nz`fx, Wfgnlj+
ae z`f tkillfxw sfxf gnlgfxlfj+ enx fpiotkf+ saz` cfzzalc gnlwzxvgzanl gnwz fwzaoizfw xac`z+
z`fq snvkj z`fl fwzihkaw` z`f jawzxahvzanl ne nvzgnofw enx z`f xfefxflgf gkiww xfcixjalc z`f
iggvxigq ne gnlwzxvgzanl gnwz enxfgiwzw, Eacvxf 8 w`nsw s`iz z`aw jawzxahvzanl knnmw kamf enx
i xfefxflgf gkiww xfkfuilz zn hvakjalc wvhsiqw al z`f VM+ jfufkntfj hq Ekquhbfxc ilj GNSA
(844:+ t, 87! enx z`f VM Jftixzoflz enx Zxilwtnxz, Z`axj+ z`f tkillfxw snvkj gnotixf z`fax
wvhsiq txnbfgz zn z`f xfefxflgf gkiww jawzxahvzanl, Z`aw snvkj oimf az gkfix zn z`f tkillfxw z`izvlkfww z`fq `iuf xfiwnl zn hfkafuf z`fq ixf wvhwzilzaikkq hfzzfx enxfgiwzfxw ilj tkillfxw z`il
z`fax gnkkficvfw s`n jaj z`f enxfgiwzw ilj tkillalc enx txnbfgzw al z`f xfefxflgf gkiww+ z`fq
ixf kamfkq cxnwwkq zn vljfxfwzaoizf gnlwzxvgzanl gnwzw, Ealikkq+ tkillfxw snvkj z`fl vwf z`aw
mlnskfjcf zn ijbvwz z`fax enxfgiwzw enx onxf xfikawo, Eacvxf 7 w`nsw s`iz wvg` ijbvwzoflzw
ixf enx z`f VM wazvizanl, Onxf wtfgagikkq+ Eacvxf 7 w`nsw z`iz enx i enxfgiwz ne gnlwzxvgzanl
gnwzw enx i xiak txnbfgz+ s`ag` `iw hffl tkillfj al z`f oillfx z`iz wvg` txnbfgzw ixf vwvikkq
tkillfj (a,f, kamf z`f txnbfgzw al z`f xfefxflgf gkiww!+ z`aw enxfgiwz snvkj `iuf zn hf ijbvwzfj
vtsixjw hq :4 tfx gflz+ ae alufwznxw sfxf sakkalc zn iggftz i xawm ne gnwz nufxxvl ne 64 tfx gflz,
Ae alufwznxw sfxf sakkalc zn iggftz i xawm ne nufxxvl ne nlkq 94 tfx gflz+ z`f vtkaez snvkj `iuf
zn hf 50 tfx gflz, Enx i xiak txnbfgz alazaikkq fwzaoizfj iz+ wiq : hakkanl+ z`f vtkaezw enx z`f
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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765 Hflz Ekquhbfxc
Eacvxf 82 Aliggvxigq ne gnlwzxvgzanl gnwz enxfgiwzw enx xiak txnbfgzw al xfefxflgf gkiww (iufxicf
gnwz algxfiwf aw aljagizfj enx lnl/VM ilj VM txnbfgzw+ wftixizfkq= gnlwzilz txagfw!
Wnvxgf2 Ekquhbfxc ilj GNSA (844:!,
64 ilj 94 tfx gflz kfufkw ne xawm ne gnwz nufxxvl snvkj hf 9,5 hakkanl ilj 8,3 hakkanl+
xfwtfgzaufkq,
Z`f xwz alwzilgf ne xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwzalc al txigzagf siw jnlf al 844: enx gitazik
gnwzw ne z`f txntnwfj Fjalhvxc` Zxio Kalf 8 (Ekquhbfxc+ 8445!, Il alazaik gnwz fwzaoizf
ne 784o oijf hq tkillfxw siw ijbvwzfj enx ntzaoawo haiw ilj iggftzihkf xawm+ vwalc z`f
txnhihakazq jawzxahvzanl al Eacvxf 7, Z`aw xfwvkzfj al i lfs gnwz fwzaoizf ne :44o+ algkvjalc
gnlzalcflgafw zn alwvxf icialwz gnwz nufxxvlw iz z`f 04 tfx gflz kfufk+ a,f, saz` i 84 tfx gflz xawmne nufxxvl, Ae z`f Wgnzzaw` Tixkaioflz+ s`ag` siw vljfxsxazalc z`f alufwzoflz+ sfxf sakkalc
zn iggftz i xawm ne nufxxvl ne 64 tfx gflz+ z`fl z`f gnwz fwzaoizf algkvjalc gnlzalcflgafw gnvkj
hf knsfxfj zn 763o, Alwvxilgf aw fptflwauf+ `fxf iw fkwfs`fxf+ ilj z`f oixcalik gnwz ne
alwvxilgf icialwz gnwz nufxxvlw algxfiwfw iw z`f kfufk ne iggftzihkf xawm jfgxfiwfw+ iw wffl al
Eacvxf 7, Walgf z`f Fjalhvxc` Zxio+ oilq nz`fx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw `iuf hffl wvhbfgzfj
zn xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwzalc+ Gxnwwxiak al Knljnl hfalc z`f onwz fptflwauf iz i gnwz ne
95 hakkanl (*87 hakkanl!,
Z`f gnlzxiwz hfzsffl alwajf ilj nvzwajf uafsw `iw hffl gnlxofj hq wqwzfoizag xfwfixg`
(Caknuag` fz ik,+ 8448!, Z`f xfwfixg` w`nsw z`iz s`fl tfntkf ixf iwmfj waotkf yvfwzanlw
xfyvaxalc z`fo zn zimf il nvzwajf uafs+ z`fax enxfgiwzw hfgnof waclagilzkq onxf iggvxizf,
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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Wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz2 s`q z`f snxwz alexiwzxvgzvxf cfzw hvakzilj s`iz sf gil jn ihnvz az 763
Eacvxf 72 Xfyvaxfj ijbvwzoflzw zn gnwz fwzaoizfw enx VM xiak txnbfgzw iw evlgzanl ne z`f oipa/
ovo iggftzihkf kfufk ne xawm enx gnwz nufxxvl (gnlwzilz txagfw!
Wnvxgf2 Ekquhbfxc ilj GNSA (844:!,
@nsfufx+ onwz aljauajvikw ilj nxcilarizanlw ixf algkalfj zn ijntz z`f alwajf uafs al tkillalc
oibnx alazaizaufw, Z`aw aw z`f gnluflzanlik ilj alzvazauf ittxnig`, Z`f zxijazanlik siq zn z`alm
ihnvz i gnotkfp txnbfgz aw zn engvw nl z`f txnbfgz azwfke ilj azw jfziakw+ zn hxalc zn hfix
s`iz nlf mlnsw ihnvz az+ tiqalc wtfgaik izzflzanl zn azw vlayvf nx vlvwvik efizvxfw+ zxqalc zn
txfjagz z`f fuflzw z`iz sakk alvflgf azw evzvxf, Z`f z`nvc`z ne cnalc nvz ilj ciz`fxalc waotkfwzizawzagw ihnvz xfkizfj giwfw wfkjno flzfxw i oilicfxw oalj, Z`aw aw z`f giwf al cflfxik+
iggnxjalc zn Knuikkn ilj Mi`lfoil (8447+ tt, 598!, Ilj az aw gfxzialkq z`f giwf enx gnwz
ilj hflfz enxfgiwzalc al kixcf alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw, Jfwtazf z`f oilq enxfgiwzw oq zfio
ilj A `iuf xfuafsfj+ hfenxf z`f Fjalhvxc` Zxio enxfgiwz+ s`ag` aw hiwfj nl nvx xfwfixg`+ sf
`ij lnz gnof igxnww i walckf cflvalf xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwz ne gnwzw ilj hflfzw, Lfaz`fx
`ij Jilafk Mi`lfoil+ s`n xwz gnlgfaufj z`f ajfi ne z`f xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwz,
S`akf vljfxwziljihkf+ oilicfxw txfefxflgf enx z`f alwajf uafs nufx z`f nvzwajf uafs aw
vlenxzvlizf, S`fl hnz` enxfgiwzalc ofz`njw ixf ittkafj saz` fyvik wmakk+ z`f nvzwajf uafs aw
ovg` onxf kamfkq zn txnjvgf i xfikawzag fwzaoizf, Z`iz aw hfgivwf az hqtiwwfw gnclazauf ilj
tnkazagik haiwfw+ wvg` iw ntzaoawo haiw ilj wzxizfcag oawxftxfwflzizanl ilj gvzw jaxfgzkq zn
nvzgnofw, Al z`f nvzwajf uafs oilicfxw ilj enxfgiwzfxw ixf lnz xfyvaxfj zn oimf wgflixanw+aoicalf fuflzw+ nx civcf z`fax nsl ilj nz`fxw kfufkw ne ihakazq ilj gnlzxnk+ wn z`fq gillnz
cfz ikk z`fwf z`alcw sxnlc, Wvxfkq z`f nvzwajf uafs+ hfalc hiwfj nl `awznxagik txfgfjflz+ oiq
eiak zn txfjagz fpzxfof nvzgnofw+ z`iz aw+ z`nwf z`iz kaf nvzwajf ikk `awznxagik txfgfjflzw, Hvz
enx onwz txnbfgzw+ z`f nvzwajf uafs sakk txnjvgf onxf iggvxizf xfwvkzw, Al gnlzxiwz+ i engvw nl
alwajf jfziakw aw z`f xnij zn aliggvxigq,
Z`fgnotixizauf ijuilzicfne z`f nvzwajf uafs aw onwz txnlnvlgfj enx lnl/xnvzalf txnbfgzw+
vljfxwznnj iw txnbfgzw z`iz oilicfxw al i gfxzial kngikf `iuf lfufx izzfotzfj hfenxfwvg` iw
hvakjalc il vxhil xiak wqwzfo al i gazq enx z`f xwz zaof+ nx kivlg`alc i gnotkfzfkq lfs txnjvgz
zn z`f oixmfz, Az aw al z`f tkillalc ne wvg` lfs feenxzw z`iz z`f haiwfw znsixj ntzaoawo ilj
wzxizfcag oawxftxfwflzizanl ixf kamfkq zn hf kixcfwz, Zn hf wvxf+ g`nnwalc z`f xac`z xfefxflgf
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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760 Hflz Ekquhbfxc
gkiww ne gnotixizauf tiwz txnbfgzw hfgnofw onxf jaegvkz s`fl oilicfxw ixf enxfgiwzalc
alazaizaufw enx s`ag` txfgfjflzw ixf lnz fiwakq envlj+ enx alwzilgf z`f alzxnjvgzanl ne lfs ilj
vleioakaix zfg`lnkncafw, @nsfufx+ oilq oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw ixf hnz` lnl/xnvzalf
kngikkq ilj vwf sfkk/mlnsl zfg`lnkncafw, Wvg` txnbfgzw ixf+ z`fxfenxf+ tixzagvkixkq kamfkq zn
hflfz exno z`f nvzwajf uafs ilj xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwzalc,
UAA, Cfzzalc cnufxlilgf xac`z
Al z`aw wfgzanl sf gnlwajfx z`f wazvizanl s`fxf txnbfgz oilicfxw ilj nz`fx alvflzaik igznxw
jn lnz lj az aotnxzilz zn cfz fwzaoizfw ne gnwzw+ hflfzw+ ilj xawmw xac`z ilj s`fxf oilicfxw+
z`fxfenxf+ jn lnz `fkt zn gkixaeq ilj oazacizf xawmw hvz+ alwzfij+ cflfxizf ilj fpigfxhizf z`fo,
@fxf txnbfgz oilicfxw ixf tixz ne z`f txnhkfo+ lnz z`f wnkvzanl,
Z`aw wazvizanl oiq lffj wnof fptkagizanl+ hfgivwf az oiq wnvlj zn oilq kamf il vlkamfkq
wzizf ne ieeiaxw, Iezfx ikk+ az oiq hf icxffj z`iz txnbfgz oilicfxw ilj nz`fx txnefwwanlikw al/unkufj al oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnuawanl nvc`z zn hf alzfxfwzfj al hfalc iggvxizf ilj vlhaiwfj
al z`fax snxm, Az aw fufl wzizfj al z`f Txnbfgz Oilicfoflz Alwzazvzf (TOA!w Gnjf ne Fz`agw ilj
Txnefwwanlik Gnljvgz (TOA+ 8445+ tt, :+ 6! z`iz txnbfgz oilicfxw w`nvkj txnuajf iggvxizf
alenxoizanl al i zaofkq oillfx ilj z`fq ovwz lnz flcicf al nx gnljnlf hf`iuanvx z`iz aw
jfwaclfj zn jfgfauf nz`fxw, Fgnlnoawzw+ flcalffxw+ tkillfxw+ ilj nz`fxw alunkufj al oibnx
alexiwzxvgzvxf txnuawanl `iuf waoakix gnjfw ne gnljvgz, Hvz z`fxf aw i jixm wajf zn z`fax snxm+
s`ag` aw xfoixmihkq vljfxfptknxfj al z`f kazfxizvxf (Ekquhbfxc+ 9115!,
Nl z`f jixm wajf+ txnbfgz oilicfxw ilj tkillfxw kaf saz` lvohfxw, iw Sig`w (9101! `iw
itzkq tvz az, Z`fq ixf hvwq lnz saz` cfzzalc enxfgiwzw ilj hvwalfww giwfw xac`z ilj enkknsalc
z`f TOA Gnjf ne Fz`agw hvz saz` cfzzalc txnbfgzw evljfj ilj hvakz, Ilj iggvxizf enxfgiwzw
ixf nezfl lnz il feefgzauf ofilw enx ig`afualc z`aw nhbfgzauf, Aljffj+ iggvxizf enxfgiwzw oiq hf gnvlzfxtxnjvgzauf+ s`fxfiw haiwfj enxfgiwzw oiq hf feefgzauf al gnotfzalc enx evljw
ilj wfgvxalc z`f cn/i`fij enx i txnbfgz, Z`f onwz feefgzauf tkillfx+ wiqw Sig`w (9101+
t, :33!+ aw wnofzaofw z`f nlf s`n gil gknim ijungigq al z`f cvawf ne wgaflzag nx zfg`lagik
xizanlikazq, Wvg` ijungigq snvkj wzilj al jaxfgz nttnwazanl zn TOAw xvkalc z`iz txnbfgz
oilicfxw w`nvkj oimf jfgawanlw ilj zimf igzanlw hiwfj nl z`f hfwz alzfxfwzw ne wngafzq
(TOA+ 8445+ t, 8!,
Lfufxz`fkfww+ wffoalckq xizanlik enxfgiwzw z`iz vljfxfwzaoizf gnwzw ilj nufxfwzaoizf hfl/
fzw `iuf knlc hffl il fwzihkaw`fj enxovki enx txnbfgz ittxnuik iw sf wis ihnuf, Enxfgiwzalc
aw `fxf oialkq ilnz`fx malj ne xflz/wffmalc hf`iuanvx+ xfwvkzalc al i oimf/hfkafuf snxkj
ne oawxftxfwflzizanl s`ag` oimfw az fpzxfofkq jaegvkz zn jfgajf s`ag` txnbfgzw jfwfxuf
vljfxzimalc ilj s`ag` jn lnz, Z`f gnlwfyvflgf aw+ iw fufl nlf ne z`f aljvwzxqw nsl nxcilw+z`f Npenxj/hiwfj Oibnx Txnbfgzw Iwwngaizanl+ igmlnskfjcfw+ z`iz znn oilq txnbfgzw txngffj
z`iz w`nvkj lnz, Nlf oac`z ijj z`iz oilq txnbfgzw jn lnz txngffj z`iz txnhihkq w`nvkj+ `ij
z`fq lnz knwz nvz zn txnbfgzw saz` hfzzfx oawxftxfwflzizanl (Ekquhbfxc fz ik,+ 8448!,
Al z`aw wazvizanl+ z`f yvfwzanl aw lnz wn ovg` s`iz txnbfgz oilicfxw gil jn zn xfjvgf
aliggvxigq ilj xawm al enxfgiwzalc+ hvz s`iz nz`fxw gil jn zn aotnwf nl txnbfgz oilicfxw z`f
g`fgmw ilj hikilgfw z`iz snvkj cauf oilicfxw z`f algflzauf zn wznt txnjvgalc haiwfj enxfgiwzw
ilj hfcal zn snxm iggnxjalc zn z`fax Gnjf ne Fz`agw, Z`f g`ikkflcf aw zn g`ilcf z`f tnsfx
xfkizanlw z`iz cnufxl enxfgiwzalc ilj txnbfgz jfufkntoflz, Hfzzfx enxfgiwzalc zfg`layvfw ilj
ittfikw zn fz`agw sakk lnz jn `fxf= nxcilarizanlik g`ilcf saz` i engvw nl zxilwtixflgq ilj
iggnvlzihakazq aw lfgfwwixq,
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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Wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz2 s`q z`f snxwz alexiwzxvgzvxf cfzw hvakzilj s`iz sf gil jn ihnvz az 761
Iw ixcvfj al Ekquhbfxc fz ik, (8447!+ zsn hiwag zqtfw ne iggnvlzihakazq jflf kahfxik
jfongxigafw2 (a! tvhkag/wfgznx iggnvlzihakazq z`xnvc` zxilwtixflgq ilj tvhkag gnlzxnk= ilj
(aa! txauizf/wfgznx iggnvlzihakazq uai gnotfzazanl ilj z`f oixmfz ofg`ilawo, Hnz` zqtfw ne
iggnvlzihakazq oiq hf feefgzauf znnkw zn gvxh oawxftxfwflzizanl al txnbfgz oilicfoflz ilj
zn txnonzf i gvkzvxf s`ag` igmlnskfjcfw ilj jfikw feefgzaufkq saz` xawm+ fwtfgaikkq s`fxf
kixcf ionvlzw ne ziptiqfxw onlfq ixf iz wzimf ilj enx txnbfgzw saz` waclagilz wngaik ilj
fluaxnloflzik aotigzw+ iw aw gnoonl saz` oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw,
(a! Zxilwtixflgq ilj tvhkag gnlzxnk
Al nxjfx zn ig`afuf iggnvlzihakazq z`xnvc` zxilwtixflgq ilj tvhkag gnlzxnk+ z`f enkknsalc
snvkj hf xfyvaxfj iw txigzagfw fohfjjfj al z`f xfkfuilz alwzazvzanlw (z`f evkk ixcvoflz enx
z`f ofiwvxfw oiq hf envlj al Ekquhbfxc fz ik, (8447+ g`w 199!!,
x Lizanlik/kfufk cnufxloflz w`nvkj lnz neefx jawgxfzanlixq cxilzw zn kngik icflgafw enx
z`f wnkf tvxtnwf ne hvakjalc i wtfgag zqtf ne txnbfgz (i,m,i, gizfcnxagik cxilzw!, Wvg`
cxilzw gxfizf tfxufxwf algflzaufw, Alwzfij+ lizanlik cnufxloflz w`nvkj waotkq neefx
hkngm cxilzw zn kngik cnufxloflzw+ ilj kfz kngik tnkazagik negaikw wtflj z`f evljw
`nsfufx z`fq g`nnwf zn+ hvz oimf wvxf z`iz fufxq jnkkix z`fq wtflj nl nlf zqtf ne
txnbfgz xfjvgfw z`fax ihakazq zn evlj ilnz`fx,x Gnwzhflfz ilikqwaw ilj nz`fx zqtfw ne fp ilzf ittxiawik w`nvkj hf w`aezfj exno
txnonzfxw zn onxf lfvzxik cxnvlj+ enx alwzilgf saz` z`f Zxfiwvxq+ al nxjfx zn xfjvgf
xawmw ne icflgq txnhkfow,x Enxfgiwzw ilj hvwalfww giwfw w`nvkj hf oijf wvhbfgz zn aljftfljflz tffx xfuafs, S`fxf
txnbfgzw alunkuf kixcf ionvlzw ne cnufxloflz evljw+ wvg` xfuafs oiq hf gixxafj nvz
hq lizanlik nx wzizf ivjazalc negfw+ wvg` iw z`f Cflfxik Iggnvlzalc Negf al z`f VWI
nx z`f Lizanlik Ivjaz Negf al z`f VM+ s`n `iuf z`f aljftfljflgf ilj fptfxzawf zntxnjvgf wvg` xfuafsw,
x Enxfgiwzw w`nvkj hf hflg`oixmfj icialwz gnotixihkf enxfgiwzw+ enx alwzilgf vwalc
xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwzalc iw jfwgxahfj al z`f txfuanvw wfgzanl,x Enx tvhkagkq evljfj txnbfgzw+ enxfgiwzw+ tffx xfuafsw+ ilj hflg`oixmalcw w`nvkj hf
oijf iuiakihkf enx tvhkag wgxvzalq+ algkvjalc hq z`f ofjai+ iw z`fq ixf txnjvgfj+
algkvjalc ikk xfkfuilz jngvoflzizanl,x Tvhkag `fixalcw+ gazarfl bvxafw+ ilj z`f kamf w`nvkj hf nxcilarfj zn ikkns wzimf`nkjfxw
ilj gauak wngafzq zn unagf gxazagawo ilj wvttnxz ne enxfgiwzw, Mlnskfjcf cflfxizfj al
z`aw siq w`nvkj hf alzfcxizfj al txnbfgz oilicfoflz ilj jfgawanl/oimalc,x Wgaflzag ilj txnefwwanlik gnlefxflgfw w`nvkj hf nxcilarfj s`fxf enxfgiwzfxw snvkj
txfwflz ilj jfeflj z`fax enxfgiwzw al z`f eigf ne gnkkficvfw wgxvzalq ilj gxazagawo,x Txnbfgzw saz alizfj hflfzgnwz xizanw w`nvkj hf xfgnlwajfxfj ilj wznttfj ae xfgikgv/
kizfj gnwzw ilj hflfzw jn lnz sixxilz aotkfoflzizanl, Txnbfgzw saz xfikawzag fwzaoizfw
ne hflfzw ilj gnwzw w`nvkj hf xfsixjfj,x Txnefwwanlik ilj nggiwanlikkq fufl gxaoalik tflikzafw w`nvkj hf flenxgfj enx oilicfxw
ilj enxfgiwzfxw s`n gnlwawzflzkq ilj enxfwffihkq txnjvgf jfgftzauf enxfgiwzw (Cixfzz
ilj Sig`w+ 9115!,
S`fl A xwz hfcil wvccfwzalc+ al kfgzvxfw enx txnbfgz oilicfxw+ txnonzfxw+ ilj enxfgiwzfxw+
z`iz jfgftzanl ilj gxaoalik tflikzafw oiq hf gnlgftzw xfkfuilz zn nvx txnefwwanlw+ A snvkj cfz
`fijw`imfw+ wac`w+ ilj z`f nggiwanlik hnn, Flxnl ilj Axiy g`ilcfj z`iz+ ikonwz nufxlac`z,
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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754 Hflz Ekquhbfxc
Znjiq tfntkf kawzfl ilj z`f kazfxizvxf `iw hfgnof xftkfzf saz` hnnmw ilj ixzagkfw z`iz `ioofx
nvz z`f kalmw hfzsffl kqalc+ enxfgiwzalc+ ilj oilicfoflz, Enx alwzilgf+ i xfgflz hnnm ihnvz
xawm+ z`f tkillalc eikkigq+ ilj wzxizfcag oawxftxfwflzizanl hkvlzkq wzizfw2 Ilqnlf s`n givwfw
`ixo hq enxfgiwzalc w`nvkj hf zxfizfj iw faz`fx i ennk nx i kaix, Wnof enxfgiwzfxw givwf onxf
jioicf zn wngafzq z`il gxaoalikw (Zikfh+ 8443+ t, 957!,
Kis/oimalc `iw enkknsfj wvaz+ onwz txnoalflzkq saz` z`f 8448 WixhilfwNpkfq Igz+
s`ag` wzatvkizfw vt zn 84 qfixw al txawnl enx i mlnsalckq eikwf enxfgiwz alzfljfj zn aotfjf+
nhwzxvgz+ nx alvflgf z`f txntfx ijoalawzxizanl ne ieeiaxw, Z`fxf aw kazzkf jnvhz z`iz tflikzafw
kamf z`aw alvflgf hf`iuanvx, Z`f tnalz aw z`iz oiktxigzagf al txnbfgz oilicfoflz w`nvkj
hf zimfl iw wfxanvwkq iw az aw al nz`fx txnefwwanlw+ f,c, ofjagalf ilj kis, Eiakalc zn jn z`aw
ionvlzw zn lnz zimalc z`f txnefwwanl ne txnbfgz oilicfoflz wfxanvwkq,
(aa! Gnotfzazanl ilj oixmfz gnlzxnk
Al nxjfx zn ig`afuf iggnvlzihakazq uai gnotfzazanl ilj oixmfz gnlzxnk+ z`f enkknsalc snvkj hfxfyvaxfj+ icial iw txigzagfw z`iz ixf hnz fohfjjfj al ilj flenxgfj hq z`f xfkfuilz alwzazvzanlw,
x Z`f jfgawanl zn cn i`fij saz` i oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgz w`nvkj+ s`fxf iz ikk
tnwwahkf+ hf oijf gnlzalcflz nl z`f sakkalclfww ne txauizf lilgafxw zn tixzagatizf
saz`nvz i wnufxfacl cvixilzff enx iz kfiwz nlf/z`axj ne z`f znzik gitazik lffjw, 3 Z`aw
w`nvkj hf xfyvaxfj s`fz`fx txnbfgzw tiww z`f oixmfz zfwz nx lnzz`iz aw+ s`fz`fx
txnbfgzw ixf wvhwajarfj nx lnz nx txnuajfj enx wngaik bvwzagf xfiwnlw nx lnz, Txauizf
kfljfxw+ w`ixf`nkjfxw+ ilj wzngm/oixmfz ilikqwzw snvkj txnjvgf z`fax nsl enxfgiwzw nx
gnljvgz jvf jakacflgf enx fpawzalc nlfw, Ae z`fq sfxf sxnlc ihnvz z`f enxfgiwzw+ z`fq
ilj z`fax nxcilarizanlw snvkj hf `vxz, Z`f xfwvkz snvkj hf ijjfj txfwwvxf zn txnjvgf
xfikawzag enxfgiwzw ilj xfjvgfj xawm zn z`f ziptiqfx,x Enxfgiwzfxw ilj z`fax nxcilarizanlw ovwz w`ixf lilgaik xfwtnlwahakazq enx gnufxalc gnwz
nufxxvlw ilj hflfz w`nxzeikkw xfwvkzalc exno oawxftxfwflzizanl ilj haiw al enxfgiwzalc,x Z`f tixzagatizanl ne xawm gitazik snvkj lnz ofil z`iz cnufxloflz xfjvgfw gnlzxnk ne
oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw, Nl z`f gnlzxixq+ az ofilw z`iz cnufxloflz gil onxf
feefgzaufkq tkiq z`f xnkf az w`nvkj hf tkiqalc+ liofkq iw z`f nxjalixq gazarflw cvixilznx
enx flwvxalc gnlgfxlw ihnvz wiefzq+ fluaxnloflz+ xawm+ ilj i txntfx vwf ne tvhkag evljw,
S`fz`fx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw ixf tvhkag+ txauizf+ nx tvhkagtxauizf+ z`fq w`nvkj hf ufwzfj
al nlf ilj nlkq nlf txnbfgz nxcilarizanl saz` i wzxnlc cnufxlilgf exiofsnxm ilj wzxnlc
gnlzxigz/sxazalc wmakkw, Z`f txnbfgz nxcilarizanl oiq hf i gnotilq nx lnz+ tvhkag nx txauizf+
nx i oapzvxf, S`iz aw aotnxzilz aw z`iz z`aw nxcilarizanl `iw z`f gitigazq zn (a! wfz vt
ilj lfcnzaizf gnlzxigzw z`iz sakk feefgzaufkq wiefcvixj azw alzfxfwzw+ algkvjalc al fyvazq xawmikkngizanl+ ilj (aa! flenxgf iggnvlzihakazq uaw/di/uaw gnlzxigznxw+ ntfxiznxw+ fzg, Al zvxl+ z`f
jaxfgznxw ne z`f nxcilarizanl ovwz hf `fkj iggnvlzihkf enx ilq gnwz nufxxvlw+ hflfz w`nxzeikkw+
eivkzq jfwaclw+ vloazacizfj xawmw+ fzg, z`iz oiq nggvx jvxalc txnbfgz tkillalc+ aotkfoflzizanl+
ilj ntfxizanlw,
3 I wnufxfacl cvixilzff aw i cvixilzff s`fxf cnufxloflz zimfw nl z`f xawm ne tiqalc higm i knil+ fufl ae z`f
knil siw nhzialfj al z`f txauizf kfljalc oixmfz, Z`f knsfx kaoaz ne i nlf/z`axj w`ixf ne txauizf xawm gitazik enx wvg`
gitazik zn alvflgf iggnvlzihakazq feefgzaufkq aw hiwfj nl txigzagik fptfxaflgf, Wff onxf al Ekquhbfxc fz ik, (8447+
tt, 9847!,
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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Wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz2 s`q z`f snxwz alexiwzxvgzvxf cfzw hvakzilj s`iz sf gil jn ihnvz az 759
Fptfxaflgf saz` gnlzxigz sxazalc aw i ovg`/lfckfgzfj zntag+ hvz aw tixzagvkixkq aotnxzilz al
jfufkntalc ilj oilicalc oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw, Z`aw aw hfgivwf i evljioflzik iwqo/
ofzxq al fptfxaflgf saz ilj xfwnvxgfw ikkngizfj zn gnlzxigz sxazalc nezfl ittkafw al z`f gkaflz
gnlzxigznx xfkizanlw`at enx wvg` txnbfgzw, Gkaflzw s`n jfgajf zn jn oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxfenx
alwzilgf+ i gazq gnvlgak jfgajalc zn hvakj i lfs wvhsiq nx znkk xnijjn wn xfkizaufkq xixfkq+
nezfl nlkq nlgf+ nx lfufx+ al z`f kaefzaof ne z`f aljauajvik gazq oilicfx ilj gnvlgak ofohfx,
Kfixlalc aw z`fxfenxf aotiaxfj enx gkaflzw+ ilj ae qnv jn lnz mlns s`iz qnvx alzfxfwzw ixf+
az aw jaegvkz zn wiefcvixj z`fo, Gnlzxigznxw+ nl z`f nz`fx `ilj+ s`n haj enx ilj hvakj wvg`
txnbfgzw+ jn wn ikk z`f zaof, Gnlzxigznxw+ z`fxfenxf+ zqtagikkq mlns ovg` onxf z`il gkaflzw
ihnvz z`f alw ilj nvzw ne txnbfgzw ilj gnlzxigzw+ algkvjalc z`f oilq xawmw ilj tazeikkw z`iz
ittkq+ tkvw s`ag` kisqfxw+ hilmfxw+ ilj gnlwvkzilzw zn `axf zn wiefcvixj z`fax alzfxfwzw onwz
feefgzaufkq, Z`aw iwqoofzxq `iw hxnvc`z oilq i gkaflz zn cxafe, I tnwwahkf siq zn hxalc
onxf wqoofzxq alzn z`f gkaflzgnlzxigznx xfkizanlw`at snvkj hf enx cnufxloflz zn fwzihkaw`
i gflzxik gnlzxigz/sxazalc vlaz iz z`f wzizf nx lizanlik kfufk+ s`ag` snvkj hf al g`ixcf ne
lfcnzaizalc+ nl hf`ike ne kngik ilj nz`fx hxilg`fw ne cnufxloflz+ z`f zqtfw ne oibnx gnlzxigzw
z`fq jn znn alexfyvflzkq zn cial xfik fptfxaflgf, Z`aw snvkj gnlgflzxizf i kixcfx lvohfxne gnlzxigzw al nlf tkigf+ ikknsalc fptfxaflgfilj z`f lfcnzaizalc tnsfx z`iz gnofw saz`
azzn iggvovkizf,
Enxzvlizfkq+ hfzzfx cnufxlilgf iknlc z`f kalfw jfwgxahfj ihnuf `iw xfgflzkq hfgnof wzxnlcfx
ixnvlj z`f snxkj, Z`f Flxnl wgiljik ilj azw wvggfwwnxw `iuf zxaccfxfj lfs kfcawkizanl ilj
i six nl gnxtnxizf jfgftzanl z`iz aw wtakkalc nufx alzn cnufxloflz saz` z`f wiof nhbfgzauf2
zn gvxh lilgaik siwzf ilj txnonzf cnnj cnufxlilgf, Ikz`nvc` txncxfww aw wkns+ cnnj
cnufxlilgf aw cialalc i ennz`nkj ikwn al oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgz oilicfoflz,
Enx fpiotkf+ al 8447 z`f Zxfiwvxq ne z`f Vlazfj Malcjno xfyvaxfj+ enx z`f xwz zaof+ z`iz
ikk oalawzxafw jfufknt ilj aotkfoflz txngfjvxfw enx oibnx txnbfgzw z`iz sakk gvxh s`iz z`f
Zxfiwvxq gikkwsaz` zxvf Hxazaw` gauakazqntzaoawo haiw, Evljalc sakk hf vliuiakihkf enx
txnbfgzw z`iz jn lnz zimf alzn iggnvlz z`aw haiw+ ilj ofz`njw `iuf hffl jfufkntfj enx `nszn jn z`aw (@O Zxfiwvxq+ 8447= Ekquhbfxc ilj GNSA+ 844:= VM Jftixzoflz enx Zxilwtnxz+
8445!, Al z`f Lfz`fxkiljw al 844:+ z`f Tixkaioflzixq Gnooazzff nl Alexiwzxvgzvxf Txnbfgzw
enx z`f xwz zaof gnljvgzfj fpzflwauf tvhkag `fixalcw zn ajflzaeq ofiwvxfw z`iz sakk kaoaz
z`f oawalenxoizanl ihnvz kixcf alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw caufl zn z`f Tixkaioflz+ tvhkag+ ilj
ofjai (Zabjfkabmf Gnooawwaf Alexiwzxvgzvvxtxnbfgzfl+ 844:!, Al Hnwznl+ z`f cnufxloflz `iw
wvfj zn xfgnvt evljw exno gnlzxigznx nufxg`ixcfw enx z`f Hac Jac xfkizfj zn gnwz nufxxvlw,
Onxf gnvlzxafw ilj gazafw ixf kamfkq zn enkkns z`f kfij ne z`f VM+ z`f Lfz`fxkiljw+ ilj
Hnwznl al gnoalc qfixw= Wsazrfxkilj ilj Jfloixm ixf ikxfijq jnalc wn (Wsaww Iwwngaizanl
ne Xnij ilj Zxilwtnxzizanl Fptfxzw+ 8445= Jilaw` Oalawzxq enx Zxilwtnxz ilj Flfxcq+ 8445+
8440!,
Onxfnufx+ saz` txauizf lilgf al oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw nl z`f xawf nufx z`f tiwz9684 qfixw+ gitazik evljw ilj hilmw ixf algxfiwalckq cialalc i wiq al z`f txnbfgz jfufkntoflz
ilj oilicfoflz txngfww, Txauizf gitazik aw ln tiligfi enx z`f akkw al oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf
txnbfgz oilicfoflz+ zn hf wvxf (@njcf ilj Cxfuf+ 8441!, Hvz txauizf alufwznxw tkigf z`fax
nsl evljw iz xawm+ iw nttnwfj zn cnufxloflzw s`n tkigf z`f ziptiqfxw onlfq iz xawm, Gitazik
evljw ilj hilmw gil z`fxfenxf hf nhwfxufj lnz zn ivznoizagikkq iggftz iz eigf uikvf z`f
enxfgiwzw ne txnbfgz oilicfxw ilj txnonzfxw, Hilmw zqtagikkq hxalc al z`fax nsl ijuawfxw zn
jn aljftfljflz enxfgiwzw+ jvf jakacflgf+ ilj xawm iwwfwwoflzw+ s`ag` aw il aotnxzilz wzft al
z`f xac`z jaxfgzanl, Z`f eikwf iwwvotzanl z`iz nlf enxfgiwz nx nlf hvwalfww giwf (s`ag` aw ikwn
i enxfgiwz! oiq gnlzial z`f zxvz` ihnvz i txnbfgz aw txnhkfoizarfj, Alwzfij txnbfgz oilicfxw
ilj txnonzfxw ixf cfzzalc vwfj zn z`f `fikz`q eigz z`iz jaeefxflz wzimf`nkjfxw `iuf jaeefxflz
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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758 Hflz Ekquhbfxc
enxfgiwzw ilj z`iz enxfgiwzw ixf lnz nlkq txnjvgzw ne nhbfgzauf wgaflgf ilj flcalffxalc hvz ne
lfcnzaizanl, S`q aw z`aw onxf `fikz`q> Hfgivwf az aw onxf zxvz`evk ihnvz nvx ihakazq zn txfjagz
z`f evzvxf ilj ihnvz z`f xawmw alunkufj,
Ae z`f alwzazvzanlw saz` xfwtnlwahakazq enx jfufkntalc ilj hvakjalc oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxfw
gnlzalvfj zn aotkfoflz+ fohfj+ ilj flenxgf wvg` ofiwvxfw ne iggnvlzihakazq feefgzaufkq+
z`fl z`f oawxftxfwflzizanl al gnwz+ hflfz+ ilj xawm fwzaoizfw+ s`ag` aw sajfwtxfij znjiq+
oac`z hf oazacizfj, Ae z`aw aw lnz jnlf+ oawxftxfwflzizanl aw kamfkq zn gnlzalvf+ ilj z`f
ikkngizanl ne evljw enx oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf aw kamfkq zn gnlzalvf zn hf siwzfevk+ vlfz`agik+ ilj
wnofzaofw fufl vlkisevk,
UAAA, Gvxxflz zxfljw al alexiwzxvgzvxf alufwzoflz
Al z`f alzxnjvgzanl zn z`aw ixzagkf+ A oflzanlfj z`iz gvxxflz wtfljalc nl alexiwzxvgzvxf gnl/
wzazvzfw z`f haccfwz alufwzoflz hnno al `awznxq+ ofiwvxfj iw w`ixf ne snxkj CJT, Sf ikwnwis ihnuf z`iz+ fufl al z`f hfwz ne zaofw+ kixcf alexiwzxvgzvxf alufwzoflzw `iuf i jawoik
tfxenxoilgf xfgnxj al zfxow ne gnwz nufxxvlw+ jfkiqw+ ilj hflfz w`nxzeikkw, Lalf nvz ne zfl
txnbfgzw fptfxaflgf gnwz nufxxvl+ ilj nufxxvl `iw lnz jaoalaw`fj enx z`f 34 qfixw enx s`ag`
sf `iuf jizi+ zn oflzanl hvz zsn cxao wzizawzagw,
Z`xnsalc `vljxfjw ne hakkanlw ne fpzxi wzaovkvw jnkkixw iz il vljfxtfxenxoalc hvwalfww
z`iz aw ikxfijq iz hvhhkf/kamf alufwzoflz kfufkw+ aw z`fxfenxf `ac`kq xawmq iz hfwz, Lfufxz`fkfww+
z`aw aw s`iz G`ali+ z`f VWI+ ilj oilq nz`fx gnvlzxafw jfgajfj zn jn saz` z`fax wzaovkvw
tigmicfw al 8440 ilj 8441, Xawmw algkvjf xiotilz tnxm/hixxfk+ eiwz/zxigmalc+ haj/xaccalc+
kngik cnufxloflzw tvkkalc z`fax evljw nvz ne nl/cnalc txnbfgzw al ilzagatizanl ne lizanlik
evljalc z`iz oiq lnz gnof nx gnofw kizf+ ilj txnbfgzw kfez vllaw`fj hfgivwf ne gnwz
nufxxvlw nl wzaovkvw txnbfgzw z`iz kngik cnufxloflz gillnz lilgf, Z`f gnlwfyvflgfw gnvkjhf jaxf zn z`f fgnlnoq+ ilj zn tvhkag zxvwz al z`f alwzazvzanlw ilj tfntkf s`n ijoalawzfx
alexiwzxvgzvxf wtfljalc, Tfx`itw z`aw aw s`q Oigyvixaf Hilmtxnhihkq z`f kixcfwz ilj onwz
fptfxaflgfj alexiwzxvgzvxf alufwznx al z`f snxkjhfcil xfjvgalc azw alexiwzxvgzvxf tnxzenkan
al 8441+ onualc alzn flfxcq alwzfij,
Ijj zn z`aw z`iz cknhik alexiwzxvgzvxf alufwzoflzw ixf w`aezalc cfncxit`agikkq exno jfufk/
ntfj zn fofxcalc fgnlnoafw+ s`fxf xawmw ne alfeefgzauf txnbfgz jfkaufxq ixf fufl `ac`fx, Nufx
`ike ne alexiwzxvgzvxf alufwzoflzw ixf lns zimalc tkigf al fofxcalc fgnlnoafw, Al z`f tiwz
6 qfixw+ G ali `iw wtflz onxf nl alexiwzxvgzvxf al xfik zfxow z`il al z`f s`nkf ne z`f zsflzafz
gflzvxq, Al z`f tiwz : qfixw+ G`ali `iw hvakz iw oilq maknofzxfw ne `ac`/wtffj tiwwflcfx xiak
kalfw iw Fvxntf `iw al zsn jfgijfw, Onxcil Wzilkfq txfjagzw z`iz fofxcalc fgnlnoafw sakk
wtflj *88 zxakkanl al znjiqw txagfw nl alexiwzxvgzvxf nufx z`f lfpz 94 qfixw, Tnkazagik xawmw+xawmw ne gnxxvtzanl+ ilj kncawzagik xawmw ixf `ac`fx al fofxcalc fgnlnoafw, Iw i gnlwfyvflgf+
xawmw ne gnwz nufxxvlw ilj hflfz w`nxzeikkw ixf ikwn `ac`fx, I xfgflz wzvjq jngvoflzfj z`iz
z`f iufxicf gnwz nufxxvl nl xiak txnbfgzwofiwvxfj al xfik zfxow exno z`f jfgawanl jizf
zn gnotkfzanlsiw 5:,5 tfx gflz al fofxcalc fgnlnoafw icialwz :4,0 tfx gflz al Lnxz`
Iofxagi ilj 7:,8 tfx gflz al Fvxntf (Ekquhbfxc fz ik,+ 8448+ t, 806!, Cfncxit`q oizzfxw zn
txnbfgz tfxenxoilgf, Z`f wzxamalc w`aez al alexiwzxvgzvxf alufwzoflzw zn fofxcalc fgnlnoafw
aw z`fxfenxf tkigalc algxfiwfj txfwwvxf nl txnbfgz jfkaufxq,
Ealikkq+ alenxoizanl ilj gnoovlagizanl zfg`lnkncq (AGZ! `iw eiwz hfgnof i kixcf ilj
xitajkq algxfiwalc tixz ne onxf oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw, Z`f gnlwfyvflgfw ixf nezfl
jfuiwzizalc+ hfgivwf kixcf AGZ txnbfgzw ittfix zn tfxenxo fufl snxwf z`il nz`fx oibnx
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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Wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz2 s`q z`f snxwz alexiwzxvgzvxf cfzw hvakzilj s`iz sf gil jn ihnvz az 757
Eacvxf :2 Gnwz nufxxvl al gnlwzxvgzanl txnbfgzw ilj AZ txnbfgzw gnotixfj,
txnbfgzw, Xfgflzkq+ i cxnvt ne AGZ fptfxzw gnlzigzfj of zn iwm `ns z`fq oac`z kfixl zn
oilicf gnwz nufxxvlw+ jfkiqw+ fzg, al AGZ txnbfgzw iw sfkk iw al zxilwtnxzizanl alexiwzxvgzvxf
txnbfgzw, A kivc`fj nvz knvj hfgivwf A oawzimflkq z`nvc`z z`fq sfxf oimalc i bnmf, Iw
oflzanlfj ihnuf+ z`f fuajflgf aw gkfix z`iz onwz oibnx zxilwtnxzizanl alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw
tfxenxo tnnxkq, Hvz `fxf aw ilnz`fx txnbfgz zqtf+ AGZ+ z`iz ittixflzkq tfxenxow wn ovg` snxwf
z`iz az gil vwf zxilwtnxzizanl iw i hflg`oixm zn hf wzxaufj enx, Sf jaj i taknz wzvjq+ ilj wvxfflnvc`+ z`f AGZ fptfxzw sfxf xac`z2 ae i oibnx txnbfgz aw lnz ikxfijq ofwwfj vt+ albfgzalc i
cnnj jnwf ne AGZ sakk jn z`f bnh (wff Eacvxf :!,
Iw ae az sfxf lnz jaegvkz flnvc` zn jfufknt+ wiq+ i oibnx lfs iaxtnxz+ sf ixf lns jfufkntalc
iaxtnxzw z`iz jftflj nl oibnx lfs AGZ enx z`fax ntfxizanlw+ ilj sf tiq z`f txagf, @nlc
Mnlc alzfxlizanlik iaxtnxz aw i giwf al tnalz+ saz` alazaik AGZ `aggvtw wn hij z`iz z`f s`nkf
@nlc Mnlc fgnlnoq wveefxfj, Zfxoalik 6 iz Knljnl @fiz`xns aw ilnz`fx fpiotkf, Il
alexiwzxvgzvxf tkillfx xfgflzkq znkj of+ Sf mlns `ns zn hvakj kixcf+ fptflwauf zvllfkw hq
lns+ hvz sf jnlz mlns `ns zn hvakj z`f AGZ wiefzq wqwzfow z`iz cn alzn z`f zvllfkw= AGZ
hvwzw vw fufxq zaof,
Nx zimf Cfxoilqw Znkk Gnkkfgz+ i gnlwnxzavo ne JiaokfxG`xqwkfx+ Jfvzwg`f Zfkfmno+
ilj Gnxnvzf ne Exilgf xfwtnlwahkf enx znkkalc `fiuq zxvgmw nl Cfxoil onznxsiqw enx z`fefjfxik cnufxloflz, Z`f lfs znkkalc wqwzfo siw jfwaclfj zn hf i w`nsgiwf enx tvhkagtxauizf
tixzlfxw`at al alexiwzxvgzvxf oilicfoflz, Znkkalc siw wg`fjvkfj zn wzixz al Bilvixq 8447,
I qfix kizfx z`f txnbfgz siw eikkalc itixz, Z`f jfufkntfxw `ij hffl znn ntzaoawzag ihnvz z`f
wnezsixf z`iz snvkj xvl z`f wqwzfo, Z`f cnufxloflz siw knwalc znkk xfuflvfw fwzaoizfj zn
znzik 5,6 hakkanl (*0,5 hakkanl!, Enx kigm ne evljw+ ikk lfs xnij txnbfgzw al Cfxoilq ilj
xfkizfj tvhkag snxmw sfxf tvz nl `nkj+ z`xfizflalc 34+444 gnlwzxvgzanl bnhw, Tnkazagailw ilj
ofjai sfxf gikkalc enx txnwfgvzanl ne Znkk Gnkkfgz enx jfgfaualc z`f cnufxloflz, Ealikkq+ z`f
Cfxoil zxilwtnxz oalawzfx gilgfkkfj z`f gnlzxigz saz` Znkk Gnkkfgz ilj ciuf z`f gnotilq
8 onlz`w zn gnof vt saz` i hfzzfx tkil, Hq z`f zaof znkkalc iz kiwz wzixzfj+ wfufxik qfixw jfkiqfj+
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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75: Hflz Ekquhbfxc
Znkk Gnkkfgz `ij hfgnof i tntvkix hqsnxj ionlc Cfxoilw vwfj zn jfwgxahf fufxqz`alc
sxnlc saz` z`f lizanlik fgnlnoq, Txnbfgzw kamf z`aw sakk lnz cfz vw nvz ne z`f gvxxflz gxawaw,
Yvazf z`f nttnwazf,
Fpiotkfw ihnvlj ilj z`f ijuagf xfcixjalc AGZ wffow nhuanvw2 ae qnv ixf jnalc AGZ iw
tixz ne i oibnx txnbfgz (nx iw i oibnx txnbfgz al azwfke! hf wvxf zn cfz AGZ z`iz `iw hffl
jfufkntfj ilj jfhvccfj fkwfs`fxf ilj z`iz `iw i txnufl zxigm xfgnxj al jiakq vwf, Ae qnv
jfgajf lnz zn enkkns z`aw ijuagf (s`ag` aw gnoonl! qnv w`nvkj hf fptkagaz z`iz qnv ixf al
fwwflgf zimalc nl z`f jfufkntoflz xawm ne i oibnx lfs txnjvgz+ s`ag` zxilwkizfw alzn kixcf
ilj vltxfjagzihkf xawmw ne jfkiqw+ gnwz nufxxvlw+ ilj hflfz w`nxzeikkw, Qnvx wfz/vt enx xawm
oilicfoflz ilj gnlzalcflgafw w`nvkj z`fl jvkq xffgz z`aw (s`ag` aw vlgnoonl!,
Ilj `fxfw z`f gxvlg`2 lnz nlkq ixf gkaflzw ilj oilicfxw ne oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw
xvw`alc `fijknlc alznxawmq AGZ alufwzoflzw z`izixf xfikkq lfstxnjvgz jfufkntoflz wg`fofw+
hvz i xitajkq algxfiwalc tixz ne z`fwf alufwzoflzw ixf w`aezalc zn fofxcalc fgnlnoafw+ s`ag`
aw i wnvxgf ne xawm al azw nsl xac`z+ iw sf wis ihnuf, Hfzsffl 8447 ilj 8440+ z`f w`ixf ne
AGZ wtfljalc al fofxcalc fgnlnoafw xnwf hq 54 tfx gflz+ exno 96 zn 8: tfx gflz ne cknhik
AGZ wtfljalc+ iggnxjalc zn z`f NFGJ,Al wvo+ z`f enkknsalc enxovki gitzvxfw z`f gvxxflz zxfljw al oibnx alexiwzxvgzvxf
alufwzoflz2
(xitaj algxfiwf al alexiwzxvgzvxf wtfljalc! - (xitaj w`aez al wtfljalc zn fofxcalc fgnlnoafw!
- (xitaj algxfiwf al wtfljalc nl AGZ! ? (xawm zn z`f z`axj jfcxff ne lilgaik ilj
fgnlnoag jawiwzfxw!,
S`fz`fx wzaovkvw alexiwzxvgzvxf wtfljalc sakk aotxnuf nx snxwfl z`f cknhik fgnlnoq sakk hf
jfgajfj hq `ns sfkk sf jfik saz` z`fwf oial zxfljw, Z`vw z`f fegaflgq ne txnbfgz jfkaufxq aw
hnz` tixzagvkixkq aotnxzilz iz txfwflz ilj tixzagvkixkq g`ikkflcfj, Z`f oibnx g`ikkflcfw ixf
(a! lnz zn knsfx wziljixjw iw z`f txnbfgz tatfkalf xitajkq fptiljw+ (aa! zn liuacizf z`f tixzagvkixxawmw ne jnalc onxf txnbfgzw al fofxcalc fgnlnoafw+ ilj (aaa! zn `ixlfww z`f hvkk al i g`ali
w`nt z`iz aw AGZ al oibnx txnbfgzw,
Z`xff oial alcxfjaflzw sakk `fkt offz z`f g`ikkflcfw, Eaxwz+ sf lffj `nlfwzkq zn igmlnsk/
fjcf z`iz alexiwzxvgzvxf alufwzoflz aw ln fiwq p hvz aw exivc`z saz` txnhkfow, Enx z`aw
tvxtnwf+ Txfwajflz Nhioi siw aooflwfkq `fktevk s`fl iz i 8441 S`azf @nvwf Eawgik Xf/
wtnlwahakazq Wvooaz `f ntflkq ajflzafj z`f gnwzkq nufxxvlw+ z`f exivj ilj ihvwf+ z`f fljkfww
fpgvwfw al tvhkag txngvxfoflz iw mfq txnhkfow (S`azf @nvwf+ 8441!, Z`f Siw`alcznl Tnwz
(8: Efhxvixq 8441! xac`zkq gikkfj z`aw i jxioizag lfs enxo ne jawgnvxwf, Hfenxf Nhioi az
siw lnz gnoof/ak/eivz zn zikm ihnvz nufxxvlw+ jfgftzanl+ ilj ihvwf al xfkizanl zn alexiwzxvg/
zvxf wtfljalc+ ikz`nvc` z`fq sfxf ne ftajfoag txntnxzanlw z`fl iw lns+ ilj z`f efs s`n jaj
vwf wvg` kilcvicf sfxf nwzxigarfj, @nsfufx+ sf gillnz wnkuf txnhkfow sf gillnz zikm ihnvz,Wn zikmalc aw z`f xwz wzft,
Wfgnlj+ sf ovwz ixxauf iz i hfzzfx vljfxwziljalc ilj hfzzfx oilicfoflz ne z`f knlc+ eiz ziakw
ne lilgaik ilj fgnlnoag xawmwz`f ihvljilgf ne hkigm wsilwz`iz ittkq zn alexiwzxvgzvxf
alufwzoflz, Xawmw `iuf wn eix hffl iw oawvljfxwznnj ilj iw oawoilicfj al alexiwzxvgzvxf
alufwzoflz iw al z`f lilgaik oixmfzw+ saz` fyvikkq jfuiwzizalc nvzgnofw, Ofz`njw ilj jizi
enx hfzzfx xawm iwwfwwoflz ilj oilicfoflz sfxf txfwflzfj ihnuf,
Z`axj+ algflzaufw lffj zn hf tvz wzxiac`z+ wn z`iz hij tfxenxoilgf aw tvlaw`fj ilj cnnj
tfxenxoilgf xfsixjfj+ ilj lnz z`f nz`fx siq ixnvlj+ s`ag` aw nezfl z`f giwf znjiq, Icial+
ofz`njw enx `ns zn jn z`aw sfxf jfwgxahfj ihnuf,
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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Wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz2 s`q z`f snxwz alexiwzxvgzvxf cfzw hvakzilj s`iz sf gil jn ihnvz az 756
AP, Gnlgkvwanlw
Z`aw ixzagkf jngvoflzw i ovg` lfckfgzfj zntag al fgnlnoagw+ liofkq z`f eigz z`iz fp ilzf
fwzaoizfw ne uflzvxfw gnwzw ilj hflfzw ixf nezfl ufxq jaeefxflz exno igzvik fp tnwz gnwzw
ilj hflfzw, Z`f ixzagkf w`nsw z`iz wvg` jaeefxflgfw hfzsffl fwzaoizfj ilj igzvik nvzgnofw
ixf txnlnvlgfj enx kixcf alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw+ s`fxf wvhwzilzaik gnwz vljfxfwzaoizfw nezfl
gnohalf saz` fyvikkq waclagilz hflfz nufxfwzaoizfw+ xfljfxalc gnwzhflfz ilikqwfw ne
txnbfgzw lnz nlkq aliggvxizf hvz haiwfj,
Z`f givwf ne haiwfj gnwzhflfz ilikqwfw aw envlj zn hf tfxufxwf algflzaufw z`iz flgnvxicf
txnonzfxw ne alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw zn vljfxfwzaoizf gnwzw ilj nufxfwzaoizf hflfzw al z`f
hvwalfww giwfw enx z`fax txnbfgzw al nxjfx zn cial ittxnuik ilj evljalc, Hvz z`f txnbfgzw z`iz
ixf ixzagaikkq oijf zn knnm hfwz al hvwalfww giwfw ixf z`f txnbfgzw z`iz cflfxizf z`f `ac`fwz
gnwz nufxxvlw ilj hflfz w`nxzeikkw al xfikazq+ xfwvkzalc al i waclagilz zxflj enx wvxuauik ne
z`f vlzzfwz enx alexiwzxvgzvxf txnbfgzw,
Z`f gvxf zn z`f txnhkfo aw flenxgalc il nvzwajf uafs al z`f tkillalc ne lfs txnbfgzw ilj
fotknqalc i ofz`nj gikkfj xfefxflgf gkiww enxfgiwzalc+ hiwfj nl Jilafk Mi`lfoilw LnhfkTxarf/sallalc z`fnxafw ne jfgawanl/oimalc vljfx vlgfxzialzq, @nsfufx+ zn hf feefgzauf wvg`
lfs ofz`njnkncq ovwz hf gnohalfj saz` hfzzfx cnufxlilgf wzxvgzvxfw saz` algflzaufw z`iz
xfsixj iggvxizf fwzaoizfw ne gnwzw ilj hflfzw ilj tvlaw` aliggvxizf nlfw,
Ealikkq+ wzaovkvw wtfljalc `iw xfgflzkq xfwvkzfj al fpzxi onlfq ilj izzflzanl enx al/
exiwzxvgzvxf alufwzalc, Z`aw aw tkigalc algxfiwfj txfwwvxf nl txnbfgz jfkaufxq, Wzaovkvw
wtfljalczncfz`fx saz`xitajkqalgxfiwalc wtfljalc nl alexiwzxvgzvxf al fofxcalc fgnlnoafw
ilj nl alenxoizanl zfg`lnkncq al alexiwzxvgzvxfaw jxaualc alexiwzxvgzvxf alufwzoflz exno
z`f exqalc til alzn z`f xf,
Xfefxflgfw
Imfxkne+ C, I,+ ilj W`akkfx+ X, B, (8441!+ Ilaoik Wtaxazw2 @ns @voil Twqg`nkncq Jxaufw z`f Fgnlnoq+ ilj
S`q Az Oizzfxw enx Cknhik Gitazikawo+ Txalgfznl+ LB+ Txalgfznl Vlaufxwazq Txfww,
Ikzw`vkfx+ I,+ ilj Kvhfxnee+ J, (8447!+ Ofci/Txnbfgzw2 Z`f G`ilcalc Tnkazagw ne Vxhil Tvhkag Alufwzoflz+
Siw`alcznl+ JG+ Hxnnmalcw Alwzazvzanl,
Iofxagil Tkillalc Iwwngaizanl, (8446!+ BITI Ixzagkf Gikkw nl Tkillfxw zn @fkt Flj Aliggvxigafw al Tvhkag
Txnbfgz Xfuflvf Enxfgiwzalc+ iuiakihkf iz `zzt2..sss,tkillalc,nxc.lfswxfkfiwfw.8446.ezt4:4346,`zo+
3 Itxak,
Ilcvfxi+ X, (8445!+ Z`f G`illfk Zvllfk2 Il Fp Tnwz Fgnlnoag Fuikvizanl+ Zxilwtnxzizanl Xfwfixg` Tixz
I+ :4+ 819796,
Iwg`fx+ S, (9130!+Enxfgiwzalc2 Il Ittxiawik enx Tnkagq/oimfxw ilj Tkillfxw+ Hikzaonxf+ OJ+Bn`lw @ntmalw
Vlaufxwazq Txfww,Hnm+ W, (9131!+ Kqalc2 Onxik G`nagf al Tvhkag ilj Txauizf Kaef+ Lfs Qnxm+ Ualzicf,
Hvf`kfx+ X,+ Cxael+ J,+ ilj OigJnlikj+ @, (9113!+ Z`f Xnkf ne Onzauizfj Xfiwnlalc al Ntzaoawzag Zaof
Txfjagzanlw+ Tfxwnlikazq ilj Wngaik Twqg`nkncq Hvkkfzal+ 87(7!+ 870:3,
Xnww+ O, (911:!+ Fptknxalc z`f Tkillalc Eikkigq2 S q Tfntkf Vljfxfwzaoizf z`fax Ziwm Gnotkfzanl
Zaofw+ Bnvxlik ne Tfxwnlikazq ilj Wngaik Twqg`nkncq+ 53+ 75509,
Gkaeef+ K,+ Xiowfq+ O,+ ilj Hixzkfzz+ J, (8444!+ Z`f Tnkazagw ne Kqalc2 Aotkagizanlw enx Jfongxigq+ Knljnl+
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Jilaw` Oalawzxq enx Zxilwtnxz ilj Flfxcq (8445!+ Imzwzqmmf no lqf hvjcfzzfxalcwtxalgattfx (Igz nl Lfs
Txalgatkfw enx Hvjcfzalc!+ Imzwzqmmf lx, 95+ Ealilwvjuikcfz+ Enkmfzalcfz+ Gntfl`icfl+ 8: Ngznhfx,
(8440!+ Lq ilkcwhvjcfzzfxalc ti Zxilwtnxzoalawzfxafzw noxijf+ `fxvljfx no mnlnoawzqxalcwonjfk nc
xawamn`iljzfxalc enx ilkcwtxnbfmzfx+ Gntfl`icfl+ 90 Lnufohfx,
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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755 Hflz Ekquhbfxc
Ekquhbfxc+ H, (9115!+ Z`f Jixm Wajf ne Tkillalc2 Xizanlikazq ilj Xfikxizanlikaziz+ al W, Oiljfkhivo+ K,
Oirri+ ilj X, Hvxg`fkk (fjw!+ Fptknxizanlw al Tkillalc Z`fnxq+ Lfs Hxvlwsagm+ LB+ Gflzfx enx Vxhil
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(8446i!+ Jfwacl hq Jfgftzanl2 Z`f Tnkazagw ne Ofcitxnbfgz Ittxnuik+ @ixuixj Jfwacl Oiciralf+ 88+
Wtxalc.Wvoofx+ 641, (8446h!+ Ofiwvxalc Aliggvxigq al Zxiufk Jfoilj Enxfgiwzalc2 Ofz`njnkncagik Gnlwajfxizanlw Xfcixjalc
Xiot Vt ilj Wiotkalc+ Zxilwtnxzizanl Xfwfixg` I+ 71(5!+ 68874,
(8445!+ Exno Lnhfk Txarf zn Txnbfgz Oilicfoflz2 Cfzzalc Xawmw Xac`z+ Txnbfgz Oilicfoflz Bnvxlik+
73(7!+ 696,
GNSA (844:!+ Txngfjvxfw enx Jfikalc saz` Ntzaoawo Haiw al Zxilwtnxz Tkillalc2 Cvajilgf Jngvoflz+
Knljnl+ Jftixzoflz enx Zxilwtnxz,
Hxvrfkavw+ L,+ ilj Xnz`flcizzfx+ S, (8447!+ Ofcitxnbfgzw ilj Xawm2 Il Iliznoq ne Iohazanl+ Giohxajcf+
Giohxajcf Vlaufxwazq Txfww,
Cixhvan+ O,+ ilj Knuikkn+ J, (8441!+ Jfkvwanl ilj Jfgftzanl al Kixcf Alexiwzxvgzvxf Txnbfgzw2 Zsn Onjfkw
enx Fptkialalc ilj Txfuflzalc Fpfgvzauf Jawiwzfx+ Gikaenxlai Oilicfoflz Xfuafs+ 69(8!+ 93417,
Wmioxaw @nko+ O, M,+ ilj Hv`k+ W, K, (8448!+ Vljfxfwzaoizalc Gnwzw al Tvhkag Snxmw Txnbfgzw2 Fxxnx nx
Kaf>+ Bnvxlik ne z`f Iofxagil Tkillalc Iwwngaizanl+ 50(7!+ 83116,
(8446!+ @ns (Al!iggvxizf Ixf Jfoilj Enxfgiwzw al Tvhkag Snxmw Txnbfgzw> Z`f Giwf ne Zxilw/tnxzizanl+ Bnvxlik ne z`f Iofxagil Tkillalc Iwwngaizanl+ 39(8!+ 979:5,
Cixfzz+ O,+ ilj Sig`w+O, (9115!+ ZxilwtnxzizanlTkillalcnl Zxaik2Z`f GkfilIax Igz ilj Zxiufk Enxfgiwzalc+
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@fko+ J, X, (8440!+ Zaof zn Alufwz, Alexiwzxvgzvxf+ z`f Gxfjaz Gxvlg` ilj z`f Xfgfwwanl+ Onlz`kq Gno/
oflzixq+ 90 Jfgfohfx+ sss,jafzfx`fko,gn,vm
@O Zxfiwvxq, (8447!+ Z`f Cxffl Hnnm2 Ittxiawik ilj Fuikvizanl al Gflzxik Cnufxloflz+ Zxfiwvxq Cvajilgf+
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@njcf+ C, I,+ ilj Cxfuf+ G, (8441!+ TTTw2 Z`f Tiwwicf ne Zaof Tfxoazw i Wnhfx Xffgzanl+ Fgnlnoag
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xfzagik Fgnlnoagw+ 964+ 9075,
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icfoflz Wgaflgf+ 71+ 9379,
Zufxwmq+ I, (9131!+ Txnwtfgz Z`fnxq2 Il Ilikqwaw ne Jfgawanlw vljfx Xawm+ Fgnlnofzxagi+ :3+ 79783,
Knuikkn+ J,+ ilj Mi`lfoil+ J, (8447!+ Jfkvwanlw ne Wvggfww2 @ns Ntzaoawo Vljfxoalfw Fpfgvzaufw
Jfgawanlw+ @ixuixj Hvwalfww Xfuafs+ Bvkq+ 6557,
Onxxaw+ T, S, C,+ ilj @nvc`+ C, @, (9103!+ Z`f Iliznoq ne Oibnx Txnbfgzw2 I Wzvjq ne z`f Xfikazq ne Txnbfgz
Oilicfoflz+ Lfs Qnxm+ Bn`l Sakfq ilj Wnlw,
Lfshq/Gkixm+ A, X,+ OgCxfcnx+ A,+ ilj Rilli+ O, T, (8448!+ Z`almalc ilj Gixalc ihnvz Gnclazauf Algnlwaw/
zflgq2 S`fl ilj enx S`no jnfw Izzazvjalik Iohauikflgf Effk Vlgnoenxzihkf>+ Bnvxlik ne Tfxwnlikazq
ilj Wngaik Twqg`nkncq+ 08(8!+ 96355,
TOA (8445!+ Gnjf ne Fz`agw ilj Txnefwwanlik Gnljvgz+ Txnbfgz Oilicfoflz Alwzazvzf+ iggfwwfj 88 Bilvixq
8441 iz `zzt2..sss,toa,nxc.TJE.it^toagnjfnefz`agw,tje
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Ilikqwaw+ Tkillalc+ ilj Allnuizanl+ G`fkzfl`io+ VM ilj Lnxz`iotznl+ OI+ Fjsixj Fkcix,
Wsaww Iwwngaizanl ne Xnij ilj Zxilwtnxzizanl Fptfxzw (8445!+ Mnwzfl/Lvzrfl/Ilikqwfl ao Wzxiwwflufxmf`x+
Cxvljlnxo 5:9084+ uikaj exno 9 Ivcvwz+ Rvxag`+ Wsaww Iwwngaizanl ne Xnij ilj Zxilwtnxzizanl Fptfxzw,
Zikfh+ L, L, (8443!+ Z`f Hkigm Wsil2 Z`f Aotigz ne z`f @ac`kq Aotxnhihkf + Knljnl+ Tflcval,
Zabjfkabmf Gnooawwaf Alexiwzxvgzvvxtxnbfgzfl (844:!+ Cxnzf Txnbfgzfl Vazufxcxnnz2 Ffl Alexiwzxvgzvvx unnx
Hfwkvazunxoalc+ Z`f @icvf+ Zsffjf Miofx jfx Wzizfl/Cflfxiik,
VM Jftixzoflz enx Zxilwtnxz (8445!+ G`ilcfw zn z`f Tnkagq nl Evljalc Oibnx Txnbfgzw+ Knljnl+ Jftixzoflz
enx Zxilwtnxz,
Sig`w+ O, (9105!+ Zfg`layvf uw Ijungigq al Enxfgiwzalc2 I Wzvjq ne Xiak Xitaj Zxilwaz+ Vxhil Xfwnvxgfw+
:(9!+ 8774,
8/3/2019 Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets builtand what we can do about it
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Wvxuauik ne z`f vlzzfwz2 s`q z`f snxwz alexiwzxvgzvxf cfzw hvakzilj s`iz sf gil jn ihnvz az 753
Sig`w+ O, (9101!+ S`fl Tkillfxw Kaf saz` Lvohfxw+ Bnvxlik ne z`f Iofxagil Tkillalc Iwwngaizanl+ 66(:!+
:351,
(9114!+ Fz`agw ilj Ijungigq al Enxfgiwzalc enx Tvhkag Tnkagq+ Hvwalfww ilj Txnefwwanlik Fz`agw Bnvxlik+
1(98!+ 9:963,
S`azf @nvwf (8441!+ Xfoixmw hq z`f Txfwajflz ilj z`f Uagf Txfwajflz iz Ntflalc ne Eawgik XfwtnlwahakazqWvooaz+ 887/41+ Negf ne z`f Txfww Wfgxfzixq+ 87 Efhxvixq,
Sakkaiow+ S, (9110!+ @nlfwz Lvohfxw ilj Jfongxigq2 Wngaik Tnkagq Ilikqwaw al z`f S`azf @nvwf+ Gnlcxfww+
ilj z`f Efjfxik Icflgafw+ Siw`alcznl+ JG+ Cfnxcfznsl Vlaufxwazq Txfww,