Sustainability & Complexipacity

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SUSTAINABILITY & COMPLEXIPACITY

presented by

DAVID PEARCE SNYDER Consulting Futurist

to

The 2015 Conference of the World Future Society

San Francisco, California, USA July 25, 2015

©2015 David Pearce Snyder • The Snyder Family Enterprise • www.the-futurist.com • 301-530-5807

© 2015 • David Pearce Snyder

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“COMPLEXITY” The birth of a notion . . and a word to explain it. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The word “complex” was invented by English philosopher John Locke in his Essay on Human Understanding (1690). He defined “complex” to mean “intertwined, braided or entangled,” and asserted that complex phenomena were essentially beyond human understanding.


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ONE FURTHER THOUGHT FROM THE INVENTOR OF COMPLEXITY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

John Locke, the pre-eminent English theologian of his time, argued that complex phenomena –things that are beyond human understanding – are properly the domain of faith, not science, and that diverse faiths could be expected to offer differing explanations for such phenomena.


4 © 2015 • David Pearce Snyder

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COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE & HUMAN COMPLEXIPACITY - I

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In The Phenomenon of Man (1946), Jesuit Scholar & Paleontologist Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, postulated:

• the continuous “complexification” of the human condition;

• that collective human consciousness grows in response to complexification (the “noosphere”);

• that modern telecommunications technology will rapidly expand the connectivity of the noosphere to an “Omega Point” (late 21st Century); when universal connectivity will enable our collective consciousness to answer all questions and resolve all problems: large and small.


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COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE & HUMAN COMPLEXIPACITY - II

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• In his writings, Teilhard suggested that “Omega Point” might be the “Second Coming.” He also suggested that it might not. (This made the Jesuits uneasy.)

• Because of his prescient vision of the World Wide Web, Teilhard de Chardin is now widely referred to as the Godfather of the Internet.

• c.f. James Surowiecki (The Wisdom of Crowds ‘05), Jeremy Rifkin (The Empathic Civilization ‘10) & Clay Shirkey (Cognitive Surplus ‘10).


"THE MANAGEMENT

OF INFORMATION & KNOWLEDGE" (Papers prepared for the Panel on Science & Technology)

Committee on Science and Astronautics

U.S. House of Representatives

February, 1970

7 © 2015 • David Pearce Snyder

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COMPLEXITY AND THE FUTURE - I !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

In 1970, British cyberneticist Stafford Beer

testified before the House Science Committee

of the U.S. Congress that the over-arching

challenge of the future would be . . .

"managing complexity!"


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COMPLEXITY AND THE FUTURE - II !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Prof. Beer defined as "complex" those issues for which there is insufficient information to permit the determination of a single, demonstrably correct resolution. In 1970, he identified 3 contemporary policy issues as being "complex":

• the benefits vs. the risks of nuclear energy

• free trade vs. full employment

• affirmative action vs. meritocracy THESE ISSUES REMAIN UNRESOLVED TODAY!


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COMPLEXITY AND THE FUTURE – III !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

While others testifying to the Congressional Committee expressed confidence that greater access to knowledge would enable us to solve complex problems, Prof. Beer warned that new information which contravened widely held socio-political convictions would routinely be blocked, discredited or rejected, making complex issues even harder to resolve in the future.


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The Collapse of Complex Societies

Joseph Tainter, 1990 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

In his seminal survey of the great civilizations of the past 2000 years, Tainter demonstrates that, as successful societies grow and prosper, they necessarily become increasingly dependent upon multiple support systems, whose inter-dependencies ultimately become unmanageably complex, causing civilization to collapse.

The Tainter Principle:

"Societies grow until they exceed their complexipacity!"


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Responding to the challenge of the complexity paradigm:

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1. Organizational development (“conceptual capacity”)

2. Common Core Standards ("Next Gen" sciences)

3. Neuro sciences (nano-dendrites/memrister synapses)

4. HomoLogical Dyads (e.g. Kirk & Spock, Picard & Data, Obama & Watson?)

5. Artificial intelligence (incl. “Autonomous Moral Agents”)

6. Techno-Anthropologistics (Cyborgs)


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"THE GOOGLE CHIP" An Automatic Transmission For Your Brain !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Larry Page, co-founder of Google, talks of the day when a Google search chip will be implanted in peoples' brains: "When you think about something you really don't know much about, you will automatically get information. One day, the gap between question and answer will disappear."


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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE & HUMAN COMPLEXIPACITY - I

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• Mathematician John von Neumann postulated a coming “singularity,” the moment when the ever-accelerating pace of technologic development will alter human affairs by surpassing human competency. (1951)

• In “The Coming Technological Singularity” (1993), cyberneticist Vernor Vinge wrote, “Within 30 years, we will have the means to create super-human intelligence, and shortly after that, the human era will be ended.”


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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE & HUMAN COMPLEXIPACITY - II

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• Technologist Ray Kurzweil wrote (1999), “In 20 years, genetics, nanotech and AI will merge into a single meta-technology that will enable us to solve all problems and live forever.”

• In The Singularity is Near (2010 documentary film), Ray Kurzweil states: “Now that non-biological intelligence has gotten a foothold in the brain through neuro-cerebral implants, the machine intelligence in our brains will grow exponentially, at least doubling every year. Ultimately, the entire universe will become saturated with our intelligence.”


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2012 ~ THE SINGULARITY EVOLVES !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• In recent interviews, Vinge and Kurzweil have both expressed more expansive visions of The Singularity, describing it as the emerging result of all of the current scientific and social initiatives to enhance human complexipacity, including "crowd sourcing."

• The Singularity is beginning to sound more like

the Noosphere.


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EVIDENCE OF COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• Research supporting Social Brain Hypothesis (Robin Dunbar - 1992) suggests that human intelligence is dependent on our social networks, and that the processing capacity of the human neocortex limits our ability to maintain meaningful relationships to about 150 people. (Marketeers call this the "Dunbar number.")

• On-line social networks can augment - or supplant - our traditional personal networks, but they do not appear to expand our capacity for meaningful relationships beyond 150 individuals.


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SOCIAL BRAINS IN HISTORY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Social anthropologists have found that many traditional social networks are made up of around 150 persons, including:

• Clans in nomadic or hunter-gatherer cultures typically have social networks made up of around 150 persons,

• Around the world, and throughout military history, the basic autonomous fighting unit - the "company" - has averaged 150 troops.

• Self-governing religious communities - e.g. Amish, Hutterites, etc. - always split when their numbers exceed 150.


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NETWORKING and THE NOOSPHERE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A long-term study by Pew Research (11/12) found that: • As people mature, they join, leave & create a continuously

evolving portfolio of personal networks, reflecting the changing important components of their lives: e.g. pop culture, work, health, hobbies, education, faith, finance, family, etc.

• Individuals use the "collective wisdom" of their networks (6 or 7, on average) to help them interpret, validate and act on the surfeit of information available on the Internet.

• There is a correlation between personal and financial success and the numbers of networks to which individuals belong.

(from "Networked: The New Social Operating System")


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AN e SOCIAL BRAIN'S DUNBAR NUMBER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Across all electronic networks, an average of just 25 members are actively engaged over time. Therefore, individuals who maintain a portfolio of 6 or 7 on-line networks have evolved a social brain with 150 to 175 active members, an optimal Dunbar Number.


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OUR GROWING POTENTIAL COMPLEXIPACITY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• Today, 1/3 of the world's population have cell phones, and 1/5 of the world's population have Web access.

• By 2020, 2/3 of the world's citizens will have cell phones and 1/2 will have Web access.

What complex problems will our new collective global e-consciousness be called upon to solve?


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CLUB OF ROME REDUX ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• A growing body of evidence shows that the current trajectory of growth in global consumption will lead to worldwide shortages in fuel, materials, food and water by 2030 to 2040 and greater "economic nationalism."

• "These shortages - and their consequences - can ONLY be avoided through rapid technologic innovation,

plus dramatic changes in public policies, business models and social expectations worldwide."

McKinsey: Sustainability & Resource Productivity Practice November, 2011


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Smithsonian.com

Looking Back on the Limits of Growth

Chart Sources: Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J. and Behrens III, W.W. (1972) April 2012


© 2015 • David Pearce Snyder 24

Post-Darwinian Responsibilities !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• Evolutionary scientists today cite climate change and accelerating species extinction as evidence that we are now living in post-Darwinian times - an anthropocene age - during which human decisions and activities will be the dominant factor in determining not only the future of our species, but of all life on earth!

• "It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor

the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change.” Charles Darwin, 1892

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David Pearce Snyder Consulting Futurist

www.the-futurist.com

“The future evolves in an orderly fashion out of the realities of the past, filtered and shaped by the decisions of the present.”

David Pearce Snyder, 1969

[email protected] After 45 years, it’s still true!


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Sustainability & Complexipacity

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