Sustainable Electric Power

Scott Norr, P.E.

EE 1001

September 22, 2015

Electric Power Delivery and Consumption Getting More

Complex• More Environmental Issues - SUSTAINABILITY• Greater Population Density• Larger Variety of Sources, Delivery Methods and

Loads• Aging Infrastructure Undergoing Life Extension• New Technology Blended with Old – Grid is Already

Pretty Smart

ELECTRIC DEMAND

Source: Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (www.eia.gov)

Demand growing 0.9% per year in U.S.

World Energy Consumption

505 QuadIn 2008

Source: Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (www.eia.gov)

US – 5% of populationusing 20% of world resources

Electric Grid – EfficiencyGeneration is the Weak Link

Courtesy of Tom FergusonLighting: 100 Lumps IN, 1 Lump OUT???

Electric Generation Changing to Meet Demand

• Large, Centralized Plants (Rarely, now)

• Small, Modular, Distributed Plants

• Also, Siting Renewable Generation where it makes Sense (and Profit)

Large Plants• Environmental Issues

• Fossil Fuels

• Location/Siting

• Outlet Transmission

HydroElectric No Longer “Clean Energy”3 Gorges Dam –

China – 20,000 MegaWatts

Hoover Dam – US – 2,000 MegaWatts

Eoearth.org

Large Plants (Cont.)

• We’ll See New Ideas for Big Plants:– Coal is dirty – so … “Clean Coal”!– Wind and Solar are expensive and intermittent:

Large-scale and Storage Needed– Geothermal has limited application: Low-Temp– Biomass puts pressure on agriculture: Cellulose– Nuclear is Tricky: Gen IV Nuclear?

Clean Coal 2% Growth in all Coal Gen, 345 GW in 2012 (Natural Gas is too cheap!!)

• Coal Gasification (Combined Cycle) - Low Emmissions• Potential for Carbon Sequestration

WIND 25% growth, 60 GW in 2012• Wind Generators currently very popular

(Several Thousand MWs in Upper Midwest

• More and more Cost Effective

(4 - 5 Cents/KWH)

• Not a Cure-All - never

windy when you need it most

• Difficult to Dispatch

Source: Town of Hendricks, MN

Solar Electricity 80% growth, 11 GW in 2012

• Photvoltaics– Electricity Directly from Sunlight– Low Conversion efficiency– Fairly High Cost

• Solar Potential:– US uses 100 Quad of Energy

each year– 38,200 Quad of Solar Energy

hits the lower 48 each year

• BUT ONLY WHEN THE SUN SHINES …

New Solar Ideas:• 3-D PhotoVoltaic Cells

– New Breakthroughs in Nano-Materials greatly increase the effective surface area of a Solar Cell and its ability to catch reflected light

– Theoretically 50%-70% efficient– Very High Cost

• Solar Concentrators– Simple Idea used in Space

– Collect More Sunlight for your Existing Cells

- Combine Solar Electric AND Solar Thermal• Graphene??

Current Photovoltaic Technologies

www.nrel.gov

Solar Flare

Fire safety and Electric Safety will lead to new regulations for Solar Panels

greentechmedia.com

Houston, We Have a Storage Problem:

Courtesy of Tom Ferguson

Renewables are not “Dispatchable”

If we couldStore energywhen availablefor use when it’s not….

Energy Storage Technology:We’re not ready yet

Source: Haresh Kamath, EPRI PEAC

Tesla Power Wall

92% “DC Efficiency”, Elon? What about AC?

92% under ideal duty for a NEW battery

Drops off quickly for irregular charge/ discharge profile

Drops off to 80% with age

Another 3-5% loss to make AC (Inverter losses)

Valøenaa, et. al. – “THE EFFECT OF PHEV AND HEV DUTY CYCLES ON BATTERY AND BATTERY PACK PERFORMANCE

Tesla Economics

Tesla adds about $0.10 per kWh toany installation (such as solar or wind)

At present in MN, Net Metering Cost Recovery makes this unattractive

Future changes to rates (real-time price, PP Tariffs) could change the economics drastically!

Geothermal 5% Growth, 3 GW in 2010

• Extract Hot Water from the Earth

• Use the Hot Water (low temp) or Flash to Steam (high temp)

• 11 GW installed capacity worldwide (2010)

• Capacity growing at 5% worldwide (5yr Avg)

• Excellent Idea for Home Use – Ground Source Heat Pumps

Binary-Cycle Plant (Geothermal)

Nuclear ….Is It BACK? 0% growth, 100 GW in 2012

• Updated LWR Designs are being permitted• March 11, 2011 – Earthquake in Japan, leading to

nuclear reactor meltdown• Next Generation Nuclear Reactors (Gen IV)

– Modular (example: 25 MW Modules), add more modules to make a bigger plant

– Fuel Flexible – Uranium, Thorium (More abundant resource)

– A Promising Design: Pebble-Bed Modular Reactor

• Temperature moderated with Helium or Nitrogen

• Fuel encased in pebbles – ‘safe’, easy to handle

Pebble-Bed Reactor

Source:

Black and Veatch

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011 25

Incremental Transmission CostsVariable Costs,Including FuelFixedCosts

CapitalCosts

2015 2030

Levelized Electricity Costs for New Plants,2015 and 2030

DEMAND SIDE

• Conservation Through:

Market Pricing

Efficient Products

IBM Predicts the Future of Electric Energy Use

www.ibm.com: “The future of energy and utilities”

Market Pricing

• Utilities MUST and will adapt (slowly!) to the changing market:

- Energy Prices becoming De-Regulated

- Shop around for a better provider

- Time of Day Rates

- New Equipment to Automate Pricing:

- Smart Meters

- Smart Appliances

Minnesota PowerTime-of-Day Rate

(Pilot Program)On-peak: + 1.5 cents

Off-peak: - 3 cents

Critical Peak: + 77 cents

Smart Meters

• Talks to Electric Company • Talks to Consumer About

Hourly Prices and Hourly Consumption

• Tells Appliances what current Price is

• Shops Around for a Better Rate?

Source: elster.com and en.wikipedia.org

Efficient Products• Smart Appliances run

only when energy is cheapest, talk to each other and to the Electric Utility

• Passive Solar Thermal Designs and Devices

• Energy Efficient Home Designs and Ground-Source Heat Pumps

Sustainability

• More than Conservation

• More than Smart Energy Use

• Being Responsible with ALL resources and Preserving Them for the Future

• “7th Generation” Concept

Sustainability at UMD

umdsustain.wp.d.umn.edu

CONCLUSIONSNew Social Pressures and New Technologies are

both changing and complicating the way we convert and use energy

In a World with 7.3 Billion People (9 Billion by 2030), We MUST become more mindful of How and Why We Use Energy.

(http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf)

WEB References• National Renewable Energy Labs

– http://www.nrel.gov/

• Electric Power Research Institute– http://www.epri.com/

• US Dept. of Energy– http://www.energy.gov/

• Energy Information Association– http://www.eia.gov/