Marcelo Poppe
Center for Strategic Studies and Management
CGEE
Sustainable energy development
in Brazil
LOW CARBON SOCIETY RESEARCH NETWORK
4TH MEETING
17-18 September 2012
Venue: St. Anne’s College, Oxford, UK
Global energy sources share
45,8
12,76,2
54,2
87,393,8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Brasil (2007) World (2005) OECD (2005)
%
Renewable sources Non-renewable sources
CO2 emissions:
Brazil: 1.7 t/toe
World: 2.4 t/toe
World
14%
11.6%
19%
3.4%
34.6%
10.3%
5.8% 1.5%
Hydropower Firewood Sugar Cane Other Renewable Oil&Oil Products Natural Gas Coal Uranium
Renewables – 48% Non renewables – 52%
Source: Brazilian Energy Balance 2010
Energy supply Brazil
Energy pattern
transport sector
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
jan/0
0
jun/0
0
nov/00
abr/
01
set/
01
fev/
02
jul/0
2
dez/0
2
mai
/03
out/03
mar
/04
ago/0
4
jan/0
5
jun/0
5
nov/05
abr/
06
set/
06
fev/
07
jul/0
7
dez/0
7
mai
/08
out/08
Millio
n lite
rs
Bioethanol
Gasoline
2008
Brazil
Power installed capacity (Interconnected and isolated systems)
Hydro (> 30 MW) 76,500 MW
Thermal 1 16,300 MW
Nuclear 2,000 MW
Biomass 2 4,000 MW
Wind 1,000 MW
Small hydro (< 30 MW) 2,000 MW
Solar 3 20 MWp
Import 4 8,000 MW
(1) NG, oil and coal
(2) 90% sugar cane bagasse
(3) Around 30,000 stand alone PV systems
(4) hydro from Paraguay (Itaipu bi-national)
Number of customers: ~ 60 million
Nuclear
2% Thermal
14%
Import
7%
Other
renewable
6%
Hydro
( >30MW )
70%
Source: Aneel, 2010
Brazil
GHG emissions Brazil
GHG emissions Brazil
Main drivers for energy growing : - Population
- GDP per capita
- Energy consumption per capita
Energy efficiency
Brazil
Energy efficiency
National programs
PROCEL – Electricity (1985)
CONPET – Oil & Gas (1991)
Appliances and equipments
1986 – Labelling
1993 – Awards
2001 – Minimum performance standards (mandatory)
Market
Financial resources: utilities energy efficiency obligation (1998),
pilot projects support instruments, CDM income, Proesco, …
ESCOs deployment and Industry commitment
voluntary
Brazil
COMERCIAL
12%
INDUSTRIAL
44%
ÁGUA, ESGOTO E
SANEAMENTO
3%
ILUMINAÇÃO
PÚBLICA
3%
RESIDENCIAL
25%
OUTROS
10%
PODER PÚBLICO
3%
Fonte: Eletrobrás – DE/DME
PROCEL
2003: 300 TWh
Brazil
ETIQUETAGEM Programa
Projeto Petrobras
Ônibus a Gás PRÊMIO NACIONAL DE CONSERVAÇÃO
E USO RACIONAL DE ENERGIA
Consumo final Derivados de Petróleo - 2003
Industrial (14,9%)
Transporte (50,8%)
Residencial (7,2%)
Uso ñ Ener. (13,8%)
Outros (13,2%)
Fonte: BEN 2004
CONPET Brazil
Partnership with INMETRO
Labeling & awards Brazil
CGIEE (Government, Regulatory
Agencies and Society)
TECHNICAL COMMITTEES (Research centres,
Universities, PROCEL,
CONPET, INMETRO, etc.)
NEGOTIATION GROUPS (Industry and Government)
Decision level
Technical level
Negotiation level
Minimum
energy performance standards
Brazil
Financial resources Utilities energy efficiency & R&D obligation
1% of the net income of utilities for R&D and EE ( US$ 300 million/year)
0,5% Efficiency
0,5%
R&D 1,0% R&D
Distribution Generation Transmission
20%
EPE
40% Utilities
100%
1,0% R&D
40%
( CT - Energ )
ANEEL
ANEEL Utilities
Brazil
Market
PÚBLICO
COMERCIAL /
SERVICOS
RESIDENCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
Alta Tensão
Condomínios Prédios Públicos
Saneamento
Hospitais Hotéis
Supermercados
Shopping
Cond.Empresariais
PPP’s
ESCOs development
> 70 companies
Most small (≤ US$ 250 mil)
Increasing business activities
Energy conservation potential in the Industry: 10 TWh/year
Brazil
New renewables
Brazil
Proinfa (2002-4) Brazil
3,300 MW grid connected facilities starting operating up to 2006/9
700 MW biopower
1,400 MW wind energy
1,200 MW small hydro power (SHP)
no solar PV power
20 years power purchase agreements (PPA) signed with Eletrobrás
Fixed prices for each source
60% minimum national supply of equipment and services
Biopower market
Biopower (4,000 MW)
Estimated
Sugar cane 15,000 MW
Rice and paper-cellulose 1,300 MW
Wood ?
Authorized 1,200 MW
Under construction 400 MW
Sources: MME, CEPEL, ANEEL, CENBIO.
Brazil
New renewables market
Small hydro (2,000 MW) Identified 10,000 MW
Authorized 2,500 MW
Under construction 1,000 MW
Wind power (1,000 MW) Estimated 140,000 MW
Authorized 4,500 MW
Under construction 1,000 MW
Solar power (20 MWp) Estimated ?,000 MWp
Sources: MME, CEPEL, ANEEL, CENBIO.
Brazil
Possible PV market
Accumulated expansion of PV's internal market by sector in MW
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SFCC -ColectiveConnected
SFRC -ResidencialConected
CFCR - CentralConnected
SFMRI -Small-grid Isolated
SFDI -DomesticIsolated
SFCI -ColectiveIsolated
SFAE - SpecificApplication
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Brazil
New renewables today
To provide some % of the annual increase of the electricity consumption, in order to diversify power supply and to promote energy security
To limit impacts in the energy tariff
To reduce GHG emissions
To encourage other renewable sources (solar PV)
Bidding process / green certificates / distinct
top prices by source and technology / …
Minimum % of national supply of equipment and services
Brazil
Liquid biofuels
Brazil
Reproduced from Unep, February 2009. The environmental food crisis
Liquid biofuels World
Biodiesel consumption
Bioethanol consumption
Liquid biofuels World
Biofuels
GHG emissions reduction
Source: Doornbosch and Steenblik, OECD 2007
Source: IEA, 2006
World
Source: IEA 2005
Biothanol yields (liters per hectare)
Bioethanol
productivity and energy balance
World
Cost perspective of
biofuel technologies
Source: IEA, 2006
World
Clean fuel programme
• Fuel diversification and green fuel promotion
• Job creation, land use and economic upswing
in rural areas
• Reduction of diesel imports
Main steps
• Quality standards
• Price management
• Production chain: crop growing, transformation and trade
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Diesel substitution target 2,00% 2,75% 3,50% 4,25% 5,00% 5,00%
METAS PROVÁVEIS PARA O PROGRAMA BIODIESEL
Biodiesel Brazil
Biodiesel production plants and installed capacity
Installed capacity
Region Facilities mil
m3/year
%
N 6 193 3
NE 6 741 12
CW 25 2,395 40
SE 13 1,144 19
S 8 1,534 26
Country 58 6,007 100
Authorized to trade by ANP and registered at MF - position in 30/09/2011
Consumption
2.8 billion liters/year
- 86% from soya oil
- 9% bovine fat
- 3% cotton oil
Brazil
Agro-ecological zoning
for palm oil crops
N NE
SE
Brazil
Sugarcane agroindustry
25 billion litters produced & 5 billion litters exported
Energetic biomass cost = US$ 1.4/GJ (industrial countries goal for 2020)
420 industrial units (100 new ones)
>70,000 producers; ~1,000,000 jobs
Knowledge frontier expansion :
genetics, biotechnologies, hydrolysis...
Brazil
Sources: CGEE - NIPE-Unicamp, IBGE and CTC
Sugarcane land use
Source: IBGE, 2008
Country total area
851 Mha (100%)
Rural properties
area 355 Mha (42%) Cultivated land area
70 Mha (8%)
Sugarcane cropland for fuel
3,5 Mha (0.5%)
Amazon forest 400 Mha
Pantanal 13 Mha
Atlantic rain forest 3 Mha
Farming (2007) Area
(Mha)
Soya 23
Corn 12
Sugar cane 7
Agriculture 70
Cattle 180
Brazil
with irrigation
“salvation”
(< 2.000 m3/ha.year)
Soil & climate potential
for sugar cane culture
Amazon Rainforest
Pantanal
Atlantic Forest
Other important preservation areas
Above 12% slope
area (75 Mha)
without irrigation
High Good Medium Inadequate
(> 80 t/ha) (> 70 t/ha) (> 60 t/ha) Source: CGEE – NIPE/Unicamp & CTC
Brazil
• Large experience using bioethanol as mixed fuel for vehicle (1925) ~ 5%
• Proálcool (1975):
• up to 25% of bioethanol blended in the gasoline (E 25)
• 5 million pure bioethanol powered cars manufactured
• Flex-fuel motors using the E 25 blend, bioethanol, or a mix of both (2003)
• 10 million flex-fuel cars manufactured; over 90% of the new car market
• Only E 25 & bioethanol delivered by all the 35,000 Country’s fuel station
Bioethanol for vehicle
1925 1975 2003
Brazil
Diversifying bioethanol use
Brazil
Bioethanol blend facilitate to reduce the local emissions of Otto cycle vehicles
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Gasolina Gasolina
com 22%
etanol
Etanol Gasolina
com 22%
etanol
Etanol Gasolina
com 22%
etanol
Etanol Gasolina
com 22%
etanol
Etanol
antes
1980
1986 1990 1995 2000
(g/km)
CO
HC
NOx
Aldeídos x 100
Source: based on IBAMA, 2006
New cars air pollution Brazil
Sugarcane technological
progress over 35 years
40,00
45,00
50,00
55,00
60,00
65,00
70,00
75,00
80,00
85,00
7576
76/7
7
77/7
8
78/7
9
79/8
0
80/8
1
81/8
2
82/8
3
83/8
4
84/8
5
85/8
6
86/8
7
87/8
8
88/8
9
89/9
0
90/9
1
91/9
2
92/9
3
93/9
4
94/9
5
95/9
6
96/9
7
97/9
8
98/9
9
99/0
0
00/0
1
01/0
2
02
/03
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
tc/h
a
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
5,00
5,50
6,00
6,50
7,00
7,50
m3/h
a
l/tc tc/ha m3/ha
So
urc
e: U
NIC
A
Source: Donzelli – CTC (2008)
So
urc
e: C
TC
1991
10,0
0,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
Percentageof Cultivated Area- Brazil
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
RB867515
Legenda:
SP81-3250
RB72454
SP79-1011
RB835486
RB855536
SP80-1816
SP80-1842
SP71-1406
SP70-1143
SP71-6163
RB785148
NA56-79
CB45-3
Brazil
Sugarcane genetics
New varieties adapted to local soils and climate and resistent against diseases
Biofactory: quick multiplication
Sugarcane of high biomass: energy cane
Brazil
Sugarcane
industrial water withdraw
≤ 1 m3/tc
≤ 1 m3/tc
≤ 0,7 m3/tc
Proibidas instalações Source: Elias Neto – CTC 2009
Brazil
Recycle
Hydrolysis
Gasification
Pyrolysis
Biorefineries
Next generation
sugarcane bioenergy
Low impact mechanization
Brazil
Sugarcane
social indicators
Average wage
0
50
100
150
200
10-15 15-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 >60 Milh
are
s d
e e
mp
reg
ad
os
1981 2007 Age of employees
50.
2%
62.1%
9.7%
2.5%
59.6%
80.7%
35.4%
26,0% 27.0%
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Adapted from Moraes (2007),based on PNAD (many years)
Formal work
Brazil
Sugarcane bioindustry
Business income 2005 2015
bioethanol 39% 54%
bioelectricity 1% 16%
energy 40% 70%
* COGEN 2008
kW 4
G
~
G
~
η =86%
PROCESSO
INDUSTRIAL
6.140kW 18.322KW
η = 84% η = 84%
100,96 t/h
35 t/h 65,96 t/h
5,7 kgv/kWh 3,6 Kgv/kWh
35,00 t/h
CALDEIRA
66 bar - 520 º C
Quantidade de
Bagaço
46,1 Ton/h
49,47 t/h
150 º C
110 º C
16,49 t/h
2007 3%
2012 6%
2020* 15%
Biopower in Country’s
electricity generation
Source: Unica 2009
Brazil
World Bioenergy
visionary perception
Ford Model A (1896) fueled by pure bioethanol [Fuel Testers (2008)]
“I foresee the time when industry shall
no longer denude the forests which
require generations to mature, nor use
up the mines which were ages in the
making, but shall draw its raw material
largely from the annual products of the
fields”
[Henry Ford, Modern Mechanics (1934)]
Query CGEE – Growth Analysis – IDDRI, May 2012
In the context of the green economy debate, which are the main topics for developing countries among the following ones? (Select up to 2)
- Poverty eradication - Inequalities reduction - Easy access to green technologies - Innovation - The right to a slower transition to green economy - Increase of decent jobs - Preference for technologies that avoid job loss
Poverty Inequalities
Green
technologies Innovation
BRAZIL 13,91% 25,46% 19,35% 23,72%
SWEDEN 25,74% 14,85% 27,72% 15,84%
FRANCE 21,13% 15,09% 22,26% 14,34%
INDUSTRIALIZED 27,93% 16,22% 20,72% 11,71%
DEVELOPING 29,03% 17,20% 16,13% 16,13%
Green economy perceptions
World
Query CGEE – Growth Analysis – IDDRI, May 2012
Green economy perceptions
World
Concerning the promotion of a green economy,
Green economy perceptions
Center for Strategic Studies and Management – CGEE Swedish Agency for Growth Policies Analysis – GA Institut for Sustainable Development and International Relations – IDDRI
World
Concerning the promotion of a green economy,
CGEE – Growth Analysis – IDDRI
World Green economy perceptions
Three quarters of the world's energy supply come from fossil fuels, responsible for large local pollution loads and for most of the greenhouse gases emissions.
The scale on which they are being used will quickly lead to their depletion.
The world energy consumption should grow as a result of the progress of many of the world’s developing regions.
Industrial countries have not succeeded in reducing energy use without compromising the quality of life, even though it is known that this can and must be done.
The challenge, therefore, is to seek renewable energy sources and to increase efficiencies in energy production and use on an unprecedented scale.
Global challenge World
