Sustainable Energy

Dr Wesam Al Madhoun

Outline of Discussion• Current and projected US and World energy

consumption and supply by sector• Carbon emissions and warming• The nature of the options

– Cleaner fossil fuels– Hydrogen, Fuel Cells– Solar, Wind, – Bio-fuels, – Nuclear

• A proposed quantifiable solution set for near and long term mitigation of the threat

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50

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0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

GDP per capita (PPP, $1995)

Prim

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Ener

gy

per

cap

ita

(GJ)

Source: UN and DOE EIA

Energy use grows with economic development

US

Australia

Russia

BrazilChina

India

S. Korea

Mexico

Ireland

Greece

FranceUK Japan

Malaysia

energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2002)

energy demand – growth projections

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

Notes: 1. OECD refers to North America, W. Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and NZ 2. Transition Economies refers to FSU and Eastern European nations 3. Developing Countries is all other nations including China, India etc.

Global Energy Demand Growth by Region (1971-2030)

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2,000

4,000

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12,000

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18,000

1971 2002 2010 2020 2030

OECD Transition Economies Developing Countries

Ene

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(Mto

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Global energy demand is set to grow by over 60% over the next 30 years – 74% of the growth is anticipated to be from non-OECD countries

• N. America, Europe and Asia Pacific are the three largest demand centres

• But, have a small share of the remaining oil and gas reserves; coal is the exception

• Their collective shares are:• Oil - 80% of demand; 15% of

conventional reserves (28% incl. unconventional reserves)

• Gas – 61% of demand; 32% of reserves

• Coal – 89% of demand; 69% of reserves

growing dislocation of supply & demand

Saudi Arabia 26%Iraq 11%Kuwait 10%Iran 9%UAE 8%Venezuela 6%Russia 5%Mexico 3%Libya 3%China 3%Nigeria 2%U.S. 2%

U.S. 26%Japan 7%China 6%Germany 4%Russia 3%S. Korea 3%France 3%Italy 3%Mexico 3%Brazil 3%Canada 3%India 3%

Nations that HAVE oil Nations that NEED oil(% of Global Reserves) (% of Global Consumption)

Source: EIA International Energy Annual

The Oil Problem

Petroleum supply, consumption, and imports, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day)

60% 71%

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GDP per capita (PPP, $1995)

CO

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per

cap

ita

(tCO

2)

CO2 emissions and GDP per capita (1980-2002)

US

Australia

Russia

Brazil

China

India

S. Korea

Mexico

Ireland

GreeceFrance

UK

Japan

Malaysia

CO2 Emissions and Climate

Conclusions

• Ever-increasing reliance on foreign energy supply is a real and growing threat to national security

• The US can be energy independent within 10-15 years and radically reduce greenhouse emissions in the process

• The solution seems straight forward:– Hybrid vehicles that use bio-fuels (ethanol and bio-

diesel) for the transportation sector– Reliance on new nuclear plants for electric power

generation with fuel reprocessing to reduce high level waste by 90%

• We need to get on with it much more aggressively– A major PR campaign will be required.

H2 SUPPLY PATHWAYSLike electricity, hydrogen is an energy carrier that

can be produced from widely available primary energy resources

• Wind

Solar Biomass

Coal w/CO2 Sequestration

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Hydrogen Production Dilemma• 13 million barrels crude oil per day used in transportation –

equivalent to 1.46 billion pounds per day hydrogen

• This would require doubling the total US power production (850 GWe to 1780 GWe) if hydrogen were produced by conventional electrolysis. (assume 1 MW per 1000 lbs)

OR

• This would require 23 trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year - approximately 110% of the 2002 total US consumption, nearly doubling the total natural gas requirement.

Bio-fuels & Hybrids in Transportation can eliminate the need for imported

oil• Biomass (corn, sugar cane and beets, sorgum,

fruit, and many other waste products) are ideal feed stock.

• Arguments over whether the life cycle net energy balance ratio for ethanol is less than or greater than one, are moot if biomass is converted using the sun’s energy, or waste heat from power plants.

• CO2 is reduced by at least 30% using ethanol and more is adsorbed in growing the biomass.

How Much Ethanol Does it Take to Run Half of all US Cars?

• Less than 30 hp needed to maintain a car or light truck at 68 mph against aerodynamic drag and rolling friction; less than 9 hp to maintain it at 40 mph.

• A 35 hp Ethanol fueled IC engine augmented by battery usage for acceleration with regenerative braking is adequate for hybrid full size family vehicles

• to run 100 million hybrid cars for 12K miles at 50 mph on ethanol would take 38.5 billion gallons of ethanol/yr.

US today produces about 5 billion gal/yr of ethanol

How Much Biomass and Land to Grow and Transform to Ethanol?

• To grow if it all came from corn:– Corn Crop yield =122 bushels per acre, and 2.6 gal

of ethanol/bushel or 317 gal of Ethanol per acre– 38.5 x 109 gal./317 gal./acre = 121million added

acres planted in corn compared to about 85 million acres currently in corn for all purposes

• To transform using solar energy– 100,000 acres or 156 sq mi. of solar collector

operating 250 days per year @ 6 hrs per day at 75% efficiency transforms enough corn to ethanol for 100 million cars for 12 k miles at 50 mph

– Includes all conversion steps: milling, cooking, saccharification, fermenting, distilling, and dehydrating

• Can also transform using waste heat from electric generating power plants

Ethanol Mythology and Reality

• Ethanol takes more energy to make it than it delivers– Depends how you allocate energy cost to bi-products– The argument is moot since all the energy for production can be power plant

waste heat or otherwise wasted incident solar radiation • Ethanol has lower energy content than gasoline so it is a poor fuel choice

- 125,300 vs 79,000 btu/gal – Ethanol burns slower and more efficiently in an IC engine regaining almost

half of the difference in energy content.• Ethanol costs much more per mile than gasoline

– A gallon of Ethanol costs about 75% of gasoline in California - about the difference in mileage per gallon

• Engines require redesign/modification to burn ethanol– Many engines in currently produced US cars are flexible fuel engines that can

burn any blend from pure gasoline to at least 90% ethanol– Other fuel injection engines can be adapted at low cost.

• Ethanol production and distribution cannot be increased rapidly– Existing gasoline distribution can be readily used for ethanol and production

facilities can and will grow to meet demand

2nd Generation Hybrid Vehicle Proposed For Long Term

• Uses 35 hp flex fuel engine to overcome drag and rolling friction and battery charging relying on battery power for acceleration at highway speeds as well as low speed operation.

• Requires more batteries with high energy density, high surge current capability, and long cycle life.

• Lithium Ion nanoelectrode battery technology appears most promising solution with potential for:– Many thousands of cycles with electrodes not susceptible

to fatigue failure– High current capable, fast recharging– Good ruggedness and safetyBut not mature in required sizes for several years

Biofueled Hybrids, Natural Gas and Nuclear Power Inexorably Linked

• To be energy independent, natural gas fired power plants must eventually be replaced by nuclear or coal fired plants

• Future fuel efficient hybrids depend on high energy density batteries - Lithium Ion technology.

• The production and replentishment of such batteries for 100 million vehicles will increase electrical power generation demand

• Is there enough Lithium? Is it safe enough?

The 21st Century Reemergence of Nuclear Power

• Improved nuclear power performance

• Global climate change and carbon emission constraints

• Increase in natural gas demand and costs

• Non-proliferation and arms reduction agreements require the consumption of fissile warhead materials

• Advanced systems for economic, versatile, sustainable, minimal waste and proliferation resistant nuclear power plants

Current Status: A Dramatic Increase in Output

576,862576,862

640,440640,440

673,702673,702

727,915727,915

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

1990 1994 1998 1999 2000 2005

Equal to 23 new 1,000-MW plants

Equal to 4 new 1,000-MW plants

753,90753,9000

Dr.Lawrence Papay

Retired VP SAIC

3 Obstacles to Increased Use of Nuclear Power

• Fear about nuclear energy safety

• The cost of siting, approval process, & building

• The disposal of high level waste

There are effective solutions to remove these obstacles

A Safety Reliability and Cost Perspective

• US Naval Reactor Program has produced and operated well , 50MW output reactors with an impeccable safety record. Operated by 4-5 personnel per shift

• The Keys:– Standard reactor designs and procedures– Excellent reactor school and training program– Streamlined regulatory processes

• French commercial reactors used standard designs

• By comparison most of US commercial reactors are one of a kind with widely different procedures

Nuclear Safety

• Status TodayWorldwide: 441 Reactors, 2574 terawatt hours

31 Reactors under construction (several more ordered)

17% of world’s electricity

North America: 118 Reactors, 118 Gigawatts

(103 in U.S. = 20% of electricity

15 in Canada = 12% of electricity)

Reducing The Cost of Siting, Construction and Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

• Standardization of plant design• Streamlining regulatory requirements and

approval process for siting of nuclear power plants

• Using the Naval Reactor model for standardization, design, construction, training and operating procedures

• Rethinking the waste problem

Nuclear Wastes• All nuclear fuel cycle waste (except HLW) has been

safely and reliably disposed of through DOE and NRC regulations (milling, enrichment, fabrication)

• Since 1982, US law ‘defines’ spent nuclear fuel as HLW, since reprocessing has not occurred since 1976

• Spent fuel is currently stored at >100 nuclear power plant sites with eventual storage/burial at Yucca Mt.

• All nuclear electricity is taxed at 1 mill/kwhr for a HLW fund (>$20 billion)

• HLW radiation exposure at disposal site less than natural background radiation levels in that region

Conclusions

• Ever-increasing reliance on foreign energy supply is a real and growing threat to national security

• The US can be energy independent within 10-15 years and radically reduce greenhouse emissions in the process

• The solution seems straight forward:– Hybrid vehicles that use bio-fuels (ethanol and bio-diesel)

for the transportation sector– Reliance on new nuclear plants for electric power

generation with fuel reprocessing to reduce high level waste by 90%

• We need to get on with it much more aggressively– A major PR campaign will be required

The so called hydrogen economy is not a solution