Sustainable Energy Mix and Renewables Plan in Korea Considering Roles of BESSs
(CITIES 5th General Consortium Meeting, FREDERICIA, 20-21 SEP 2018)
Prof. Jong Bae Park
School of Electrical and Electronics, Konkuk University
2
• Characteristics and Issues of Korean Power System
• Summary of Energy Transition Plan of Korean
Government
• Energy Vision 2040 of Korea
• Flexibility Increase in Korean Power System Plan
• Conclusions and Suggestions
CONTENTS
Characteristics of South Korean Power System
3
• Centralized Bulk Power System (Generation, Transmission, Demand)
– Highly Concentrated Generation Sites for Massive Nuclear and Coal Plants
(maximum 10 nuclear units in a site)
– 765kV HVAC & 500kV HVDC (Bulk Transmission)
– 40% electricity consumption in Seoul-metro and 30% of Busan-metro areas
• Isolated Power System, Dependency for Fuel Import (94%, 100 BUS$/year)
Coal S ite
Nuclear Site
Nuclear S ite
(New HVDC)
Issues of South Korean Power System
4
• Implementation of De-centralized Power System
(Generation, Transmission, Demand)
• Systematic Flexibility Enhancement for Active Renewable
Penetration (DR, Interconnection, CHP, GT, BESS, etc)
• Increase of Reliability & Resilience
• Reduction of CO2 Emissions through Energy Mix Changes
• Reduction of SOx, NOx, PM2.5, PM10 for Air Pollution Mitigation
Supply and Demand in Korean Power System
5
• Historical Supply and Demand in Korea (1990-2017)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Installed Capacity (MW) Peak Demand (MW)Capacity Reserve Margin (%) Operating Reserve Margin (%)
. Installed Capacity (117GW), Peak (85 GW), Operating Reserve Margin (13%) in 2017
. Experience of Rolling Blackout in 2011 (Low Reserve Margin, Demand Forecasting Error)
Capacity and Generation Mix in Korea (2017)
6
• Capacity and Generation Mix (2017)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
석탄
(Coal)
원자력
(Nuclear)
천연가스
(Natural Gas)
유류
(Oil)
수력
(Hydro)
집단
(Cogen)
신재생
(Renewable)
Generation Mix Trend in Korea
7
• Generation Mix Trend in Korea (2000-2017)
• 2000 : Nuclear (41%) > Coal (37%) > LNG (11%) > Oil (10%) > Hydro (2%)• 2017 : Coal (43%) > Nuclear (27%) > LNG (21%) > Renewables (6%) > Oil (2%) > Hydro (1%)
Renewables in Korea (2016)
8
• Renewables in Korea (2016)
. Renewable Share in Capacity [MW] : 12.5% (PV 4.5GW, Waste 3.8GW, Bio 1.9GW
Hydro 1.8GW, Wind 1GW, IGCC 0.34, etc)
. Generation [GWh] : 7.2%
. Share of PV and Wind Generation : 2.2% (Mostly by Waste and Bio)
Cumulative Capacity [MW] Renewable Generation [GWh, %]
PV’s Contribution in 2018 Summer Peak
9
• Historical Peak in 2018 Summer (July 24, 2018)
• 2018.7.24 pm 5 : 92,480 MW • PV Capacity : 7,060MW including Self-generation• PV Peak Cutting on July 24, 2018 : Around 4 GW• Peak-time Shift due to PV Generation : pm 2 ➔ pm 5
New Government’s Energy Transition Plan
10
• 8th Electricity Supply and Demand Plan (Dec. 2017)
- Reduction of Nuclear & Coal Share
- Increasing Renewable Generation by 20% until 2030
- Electrification through E-mobility (1 Million Evs)
• 3rd National Energy Basic Plan (Under Process)
- The Highest Government Energy Plan (Every 5 years)
- Continuous Increase of Renewable in 2040 (25%~40%)
- System Flexibility through Various Options (Including BESS)
8th Electricity Supply and Demand Plan - 1
11
• Nuclear Plan in 8th Electricity Plan (Dec. 2017)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035
6th Plan (2013) 7th Plan (2015) 8th Plan (2018)
24 Units (22.5GW) 27 Units (27.5GW) 18 Units (20.4GW)
2017 2022 2030
11
8th Electricity Supply and Demand Plan - 2
• Coal Plan in 8th Electricity Plan (Dec. 2017)
61 Units (36.9GW) 61 Units (42GW) 57 Units (39.9GW)
2017 2022 2030
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
6th Plan (2013) 7th Plan (2015) 8th Plan (2018)
8th Electricity Supply and Demand Plan - 3
• Renewable Plan in 8th Electricity Plan (Dec. 2017)
FC
By-Product
Waste
Bio
Ocean
Hydro
Wind
PV
7th Plan (2015)
• 20% Renewable Generation in 2030.
• PV and Wind Focused Renewable Capacity
Integrated Smart Energy System (2040 Vision)
14
• Market-based Smart Energy System. Flexibility through all Energy Sector.
Renewables
Energy FlowElectricityMarket
Heating/Cooling/Process
Steam
CHP
Transportation
AMI
Real-Time Ancillary Service
Gas
IoE
LNG
Energy Storage MagnetsCapacitorsCompressed AirSuperconductivity
Solar Heat
Storage
h FuelCell
H2
LPG H2
GasStationHeater
HeatPump
V2G
hCharger
Conventional ESSBattery ESS
Scenario-Based Renewables Initiative in 2040
15
• Renewables Penetration Based on the Conditions of Policy, Market, and Technology(Flexibility)
• RE E 30% (2040) – Stage 4
• Market-driven Scenario
• Partial Smart Energy System
( Policy+, Market +, Tech - )
RE E (4030)
• RE E 20% (2030) – Stage 3
• 8th Basic Plan (2017)
RE E (3020)
• RE E 25% (2040) – Stage 4
• Policy-driven scenario
• Separate Energy System
( Policy+, Market -, Tech - )
RE E (4025)
• RE E 40%↑ (2040) – Stage 4
• Market & Tech-driven Scenario
• Integrated Smart Energy
System
( Policy+, Market +, Tech + )
RE E (4040)Fle
xib
ility
Policy
Mark
et
IEA Classification of Renewable Portion. Stage1: ∼3%, Stage2: 3∼15%, Stage3: 15∼25%, Stage4: 25%↑
Major Outcomes of 2040 Energy Vision
16
• Major outcomes of Korean Power System through 2040 Energy Vision
< % of Renewable Generation > < % of Distributed Generation >
< Market Participant of Renewables (10^4) > < E-mobility (10^4) >
E-mobility Scenarios in 2040
17
• E-mobility : 3 Millions in 2030 (CO2 Mitigation Plan in Transportation. 2018)
• Peak & Energy Increase in Electricity Sector in 2040 (5M, 7.5M, 10M)
TWh GW
Renewables Capacity by Scenarios in 2040
18
• Renewable Capacity in 2040 by Scenarios (EVs 5M) : 73GW ~ 120GW
• Renewable Capacity in 2040 by Scenarios (EVs 10M) : 75GW – 123GW
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
4025 4040 4040
Capacity [MW] of Renewables (5M EVs)
PV Wind Hydro Bio Waste By-product FC Ocean IGCC
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
4025 4040 4040
Capacity [MW] of Renewables (10M EVs)
PV Wind Hydro Bio Waste By-product FC Ocean IGCC
Flexibility Increase to Overcome Volatility and Uncertainty of Renewables - 1
19
• Flexibility – The Critical Component for Massive Increase of Renewable Generation
• Volatility Analysis of Winds and PVs in Korea (2017)
Wind PV
CF (%) Avg. : 22.45 Max. : 74.83 Avg. : 15.99 Max. : 86.94
Output
Volatility
(%p)
5 Mins : -4.38 ~ 6.02
30 Mins : -9.43 ~ 12.83
1 hr : -13.36 ~ 17.49
2 hrs : -21.13 ~ 25.99
5 Mins : -6.37 ~ 5.22
30 Mins : -14.24 ~ 15.95
1 hr : -29.09 ~ 29.26
2 hrs : -51.41 ~ 52.60
5 Mins Volatility of PV5 Mins Volatility of Wind
Flexibility Increase to Overcome Volatility and Uncertainty of Renewables - 2
20
• Volatility Forecasting of Winds and PVs (2016, 2030, 2040)
• Flexibility Options: Market Structure including Reserves, Supply Options, Demand Options, Storage Options (BESS), Infrastructure, etc.
• BESS(Li-B) focused Presentation
Volatility [MW] 2016 20302040
25% 40%
PV
[MW]
5 Mins-(Dec) - 415 - 2,136 - 2,771 - 4,713
+(Inc) 340 1,750 2,271 3,862
1 hour-(Dec) - 1,896 - 9,754 - 12,654 - 21,524
+(Inc) 1,907 9,811 12,728 21,649
Wind
[MW]
5 Mins-(Dec) - 53 - 770 - 1,035 - 1,760
+(Inc) 73 1,058 1,422 2,419
1 hour-(Dec) - 162 - 2,348 - 3,156 - 5,368
+(Inc) 212 3,074 4,131 7,027
Flexibility Increase (Smart Grid Infrastructure)
21
• Smart Grid Infrastructure (~2022)
SYSTEM
INFRA
Faci-lity
System Operation Transmission
Distribution Customer
RE RE
Digital SS
RE
ESS(FR)
BESS Applications in Power System
22
• Active Application of LiB BESS for Power System Stablizationin South Korea
• Frequency Regulation (Primary, Secondary Reserve)
• Renewable Integration (PV and Wind through REC Compensation)
• Peak Cutting of Industrial Customers through Incentive Mechanism (TOU)
• Around 3GW~4GW in Total LiB BESS Under Operation or Construction
BESS Applications for Frequency Regulation in Korea
23
• Total 360MW BESSs for FR in Operation (2018)
• LiB BESS for FRby KEPCO’s S/S
• Replacing Coal’s Primary Response
Frequency Regulation Operations - 1
24
• Operation Characteristics of FR ESS (Aug. 18, 2016)
– ESS Power/Energy : 24MW/6MWh
– BESS Operation Range : 60Hz ± 0.03
– SOC Operaton Range : 20 ~ 80%
➔ Frequent Operation and Depth-of-Operation Shorten Lifespan of
BESS(LiB)
[MW] SOC(%)
Frequency Regulation Operations - 2
25
• Hybrid (LiB + Supercapacitor) Operation of FR ESS Considering Wearing Cost (Under Research)
(a) LiB BESS single operation
(b) HESS operation
Multi-purpose Operations of BESS
26
• Renewable (PV, Wind) + BESS : Constant Power Control, Smoothing, Energy Shifting
Cost Reduction of Renewables
• Historical REC Spot Price Trend
• LCOE Estimation (PV vs Nuclear)
27
Conclusions and Suggestions
• Massive Renewables Capacity Increase Plan of New Government until 2030 and 2040
– 60GW in 2030 (20% in 2030)
– 70GW~120GW in 2040 (25%~40% in 2040)
• Systematic and Cost-effective Flexibility Increase Strategy
– Platform and Infrastructure Implementation including Interconnection
– BESS Contribution (Cost Reduction Required)
– Successful Implementation of Market-based Smart Energy System including EV, Gas(P2G), Thermal, etc
• International Collaboration & Sharing of System Operation Experience
28