Sustainable Energy Options:
Maintaining access to abundant fossil fuels
Klaus S. Lackner
Columbia University
November 2007
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
100 1000 10000 100000
GDP ($/person/year)
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy
Co
ns
um
pti
on
(k
W/p
ers
on
)
Norway USA France UK
Brazil
Russia
India
China
$0.38/kWh (primary)
Energy, Wealth, Economic Growth
EIA Data 2002
IPCC Model Simulations of CO2 Emissions
Growth in Energy Consumption
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Fra
cti
on
al
Ch
an
ge
Constant Growth 1.6% Plus Population Growth to 10 billion Closing the Gap at 2%
Energy intensity drop 1%/yr Energy Intensity drop 1.5%/yr Energy Intensity drop 2% per year
Constant per capita growth
Plus Population Growth
Closing the Gap
1% energy intensity reduction
1.5% energy intensity reduction
2.0% energy intensity reduction
Carbon as a Low-Cost Source of Energy
H.H. Rogner, 1997
Lift
ing
Cost
Cumulative Gt of Carbon Consumed
US1990$ per barrel of oil equivalent
Cumulative
Carbon
Consumption as
of1997
Refining
Carbon
Diesel
Coal
Shale
Fossil fuels are fungible
Tar
Oil
NaturalGas
Jet Fuel
Heat
Electricity
Ethanol
Methanol
DME
Hydrogen
SynthesisGas
The Challenge:Holding the Stock of CO2 constant
Constant emissions at
2010 rate
33% of 2010 rate
10% of 2010 rate
0% of 2010 rate
Extension of
Historic Growth
Rates
560 ppm
280 ppm
Comparison With Keeling’s Data
The Challenge:Holding the Stock of CO2 constant
Constant emissions at
2010 rate
33% of 2010 rate
10% of 2010 rate
0% of 2010 rate
Extension of
Historic Growth
Rates
560 ppm
280 ppm
The Mismatch in Carbon Sources and Sinks
43
1
2
5
1800-
2000
Fossil Carbon Consumption to
date
180ppmincrease in
the air 30% ofthe Oceanacidified
30% increase inSoil Carbon
50%increase
inbiomass
A Triad of Large Scale Options
• Solar– Cost reduction and mass-manufacture
• Nuclear– Cost, waste, safety and security
• Fossil Energy– Zero emission, carbon storage and
interconvertibility
Markets will drive efficiency, conservation and alternative energy
Small Energy Resources
• Hydro-electricity– Cheap but limited
• Biomass– Sun and land limited, severe competition with
food
• Wind– Stopping the air over Colorado every day?
• Geothermal– Geographically limited
• Tides, Waves & Ocean Currents– Less than human energy generation
Net Zero Carbon EconomyNet Zero Carbon Economy
CO2 from distributed emissions
Permanent & safe disposal
CO2 from concentrated
sources
Capture from power plants, cement, steel,
refineries, etc.
Geological Storage Mineral carbonate disposal
Capture from air
Dividing The Fossil Carbon Pie
900 Gt C
total
550 ppm
Past
10yr
Removing the Carbon Constraint
5000 Gt C
totalPast
Net Zero Carbon EconomyNet Zero Carbon Economy
CO2 from distributed emissions
Permanent & safe
disposal
CO2 from concentrated sources
Capture from power plants, cement,
steel, refineries, etc.
Geological Storage Mineral carbonate
disposal
Capture from air
Storage Life Time
5000 Gt of C
200 years at 4 times current rates of emission
Storage
Slow Leak (0.04%/yr)
2 Gt/yr for 2500 years
Current Emissions: 7Gt/year
Underground Injection
statoil
Gravitational TrappingSubocean Floor Disposal
Energy States of Carbon
Carbon
Carbon Dioxide
Carbonate
400 kJ/mole
60...180 kJ/mole
The ground state of carbon is a mineral
carbonate
Rockville Quarry
Mg3Si2O5(OH)4 + 3CO2(g) 3MgCO3 + 2SiO2 +2H2O(l)+63kJ/mol CO2
Bedrock geology GIS datasets – All U.S. (Surface area)120°W130°W
110°W
110°W
100°W
100°W 90°W
90°W
80°W
80°W
70°W
25°N 25°N
30°N 30°N
35°N 35°N
40°N 40°N
45°N 45°N
$0 1,000,000
Meters
Legend
ultramafic rock
67°W
67°W
66°W
66°W
65°W
18°N
18°N19°N
0 140,000
Meters
Puerto Rico
8733 km2
920 km2
166 km2Total = 9820 ±100 km2
Belvidere Mountain, Vermont
Serpentine Tailings
Oman Peridotite
Net Zero Carbon EconomyNet Zero Carbon Economy
CO2 from distributed emissions
Permanent & safe disposal
CO2 from concentrated
sources
Capture from power plants, cement, steel,
refineries, etc.
Geological Storage Mineral carbonate disposal
Capture from air
Many Different Options
• Flue gas scrubbing– MEA, chilled ammonia
• Oxyfuel Combustion– Naturally zero emission
• Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle– Difficult as zero emission
• AZEP Cycles– Mixed Oxide Membranes
• Fuel Cell Cycles– Solid Oxide Membranes
CO2 N2
H2OSOx, NOx and
other Pollutants
Carbon
Air
Zero Emission Principle
Solid Waste
Power Plant
Steam Reforming
Boudouard Reaction
C + O2 CO2
no change in mole volume
entropy stays constantG = H
2H2 + O2 2H2O
large reduction in mole volumeentropy decreases in reactantsmade up by heat transfer to
surroundings G < H
Carbon makes a better fuel cell
PCO2CO2 O2-
CO32- CO3
2-CO32- CO3
2-
O2- O2- O2- CO2
Phase I: Solid Oxide
Phase II: Molten Carbonate
Multi-Phase Equilibrium
Proposed Membrane
CO2
CO2CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2 + O2- = CO32-
CO2
extraction from air
Permanent & safe disposal
CO2 from concentrated
sources
Net Zero Carbon EconomyNet Zero Carbon Economy
CO2
1 m3of Air40 moles of gas, 1.16 kg
wind speed 6 m/s
0.015 moles of CO2
produced by 10,000 J of gasoline
2
20 J2
mv
Volumes are drawn to scale
CO2 Capture from Air
Wind area that carries 22 tons of CO2 per year
Wind area that carries 10 kW
0.2 m 2
for CO2 80 m 2
for Wind Energy
How much wind? (6m/sec)
50 cents/ton of CO2 for contacting
Air Flow
Ca(OH)2 solution
CO2 diffusion
CO2 mass transfer is limited by diffusion in air boundary layer
Ca(OH)2 as an absorbent
CaCO3 precipitate
Sorbent Choices
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
100 1000 10000 100000
CO2 Partial Pressure (ppm)
Bin
din
g E
ne
rgy
(k
J/m
ole
)
350K
300KAir Power plant
60m by 50m
3kg of CO2 per second
90,000 tons per year
4,000 people or
15,000 cars
Would feed EOR for 800 barrels a day.
250,000 units for worldwide CO2 emissions
The first of a kind
EnergySource
EnergyConsumer
H2O H2O
O2
O2
H2
CO2
CO2
H2 CH2
Materially Closed Energy Cycles
C H
O
Fuels
Oxidizer
Combustion products
Biomass
CO
Fischer Tropsch Synthesis GasMethanol
EthanolNatural Gas
Town Gas
PetroleumCoal
GasolineBenzeneCarbon Hydrogen
CO2 H2O
Oxygen
Increasing Hydrogen Content
Incr
easi
ng O
xid
ati
on S
tate
Methane
Free
O2
Free C
- H
C H
O
Fuels
Oxidizer
Combustion products
Biomass
CO
Fischer Tropsch Synthesis GasMethanol
EthanolNatural Gas
Town Gas
PetroleumCoal
GasolineBenzeneCarbon Hydrogen
CO2 H2O
Oxygen
Increasing Hydrogen Content
Incr
easi
ng O
xid
ati
on S
tate
Methane
Free
O2
Free C
- H
C H
O
Fuels
Oxidizer
Combustion products
Biomass
CO
Fischer Tropsch Synthesis GasMethanol
EthanolNatural Gas
Town Gas
PetroleumCoal
GasolineBenzeneCarbon Hydrogen
CO2 H2O
Oxygen
Increasing Hydrogen Content
Incr
easi
ng O
xid
ati
on S
tate
Methane
Free
O2
Free C
- H
Private SectorCarbon Extraction
CarbonSequestratio
n
Farming, Manufacturing, Service, etc.
Certified Carbon Accounting
certificates
certification
Public Institutionsand Government
Carbon Board
guidance
Permits
&
Credits