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8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 1/20
By: Frank Spencer MSc(Eng)
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 2/20
Agenda
Introduction
Current Energy Scenarios Future Energy – Business as Usual
Sustainability Issues
Future Energy – Sustainable
Key Goals for Sustainable Energy
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 3/20
Current Energy Demand
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 4/20
Current Electricity Supply
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 5/20
Future –
Business as Usual
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2003 2050
P J Other
Liquid
Electricity
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 6/20
Sustainability - Electricity Capacity Issues
Demand increasing
Price increasing Price inconsistent with long term cost
Demand targeting + steep penalties
High Carbon and other emissions (pollution)
High transmission losses to the Cape
Coal is a finite resource
Nuclear option massively expensive
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 7/20
Sustainability –
Liquid Fuels
Oil Supply & Costs
Fuel production shortfall by 2012 Tourism Impacts
Paraffin dangerous and inefficient
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 8/20
Sustainability –
Transport
Inefficient – many cars, low occupancy
Inefficient - busses with poor aerodynamics & engines Rail (or BRT) best - not used extensively as it could
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 9/20
Sustainability –
Carbon Coal & oil based energy = CO2e emissions
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 10/20
Sustainable Future - Solar
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 11/20
Sustainable Future - Wind
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 12/20
Sustainable Future - Biomass
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 13/20
Sustainable Future –
Mini-hydro
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 14/20
Biomass Cogen
Hydro
Municipal WastePumped Storage
Solar PV off grid
Solar PV grid con.
Solar Th Elec no st.
Solar Th Elec with st.
Ocean EnergyWind High CF
Wind Medium CF
Imp Ren Energy
New NuclearNew foss mid and pk
New Fossil Base
Exist mid and peak
Existing Base
Transformation Results: Capacity
Scenario: Prog Ren Ref Dem, Capacity: All Capacities
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
9,5009,000
8,500
8,000
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,0002,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 15/20
Sustainable Future
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2003 2050BAU 2050SUS
P J
Efficiency
Other
Biofuels
Liquid
Electricity
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 16/20
Renewables vs Fossil
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 17/20
Production Split 2050
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 18/20
Goals - Production Local Renewable Energy Production
Large Scale Renewables
SWH
Biogas
“Virtual” Power Stations – Energy Efficiency
Support IPPs / On-site production
Jobs Low energy consumption / carbon emission
High energy production
Carbon trading /tax
8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Presentation
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sustainable-futures-energy-presentation 19/20
Goals - Consumption Energy Saving Plan
Energy Efficiency
Heat recovery, HVAC, geysers, motors, lighting, etc Efficient Buildings – SANS204 / Green Star
Variable Tariffs
Smart Meters
Efficient Cooking
Local is lekker
Transport interventions