Date post: | 15-Apr-2017 |
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Agenda
Source:http://www.themotherco.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2012/05/Frustration_2.0-‐881x499.jpg
“What’s the problem?”
“How can Agile / Scrum / Lean help us make better decisions?”
“How can we help our people /
teams to make better decisions?”
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“Organisations are decision-‐making factories”
Source: http://cdn.wonderfulengineering.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/11/factory-‐wallpaper-‐2-‐798x350.jpg
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We often decide by “thin slicing”, which is good but bad
Source:
likes, dislikes
unconscious biases
stereotypingprejudices
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Our decision-‐making process is sometimes “corrupted”
Source: http://www.vectorfreebie.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2016/01/Heart-‐Sketch.pnghttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/-‐GXOy6NJ7Pmk/TwoN39V7yfI/AAAAAAAAEGI/HtWJh3STDPQ/s1600/operahousesketchbydavidjack.jpghttps://s-‐media-‐cache-‐ak0.pinimg.com/736x/40/05/a7/4005a76193de7788886ea0d0339284f8.jpg
Canberra
Sydney
Perth
Melbourne
Brisbane
London
Adelaide
Darwin
Hobart Auckland
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Decisions-‐in-‐progress (DIP) are like work-‐in-‐progress (WIP)
Source: http://www.domusweb.it/content/dam/domusweb/en/news/2015/06/08/carsten_holler_decision/domus-‐01-‐holler-‐decis ion.jpg
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Low DIP means high flow (thru’put)
Source: https://static-‐secure.guim.co.uk/sys-‐images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2009/11/2/1257167787984/1960-‐A-‐car-‐turns-‐off-‐the-‐-‐016.jpg
11 © 2015 CA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.Source: http://s3.scoopwhoop.com/anj/No_cars/618340655.jpg
High DIP leads to low flow of decisions (throughput)
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High DIP leads to bottlenecks and compounding delays
Source: https://campustocareer.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/flight-‐delayed.jpg
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Unplanned work & decisions kills flow & eat up capacity
Source: http://www.tragic-‐christian.org/.a/6a00d83455629c69e2017ee3bf0b88970d-‐pi
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Unplanned work increases decisions & reduces thru’put
Source:
32
21
4
18
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3
Planned cards delivered Unplanned cards delivered
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Smaller batches àmake decisions more frequently
Source: http://www.businesstraveller.com/files/News-‐images/Qantas/Qantas-‐A380-‐780.jpg, http://www.moneymorning.com.au/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/06/qantas-‐plane-‐flight.jpg
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Steady flow of decisions improves stability & predictability
Source:https://media.apnarm.net.au/img/media/images/2015/04/19/SCN_20-‐04-‐2015_EGN_04_SCN190415TRAFFIC02%20fade_fct1024x768x420.0_ct620x465.jpg
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Are your decisions flowing or stop:start?
Source:
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
4/14/15
4/21/15
4/28/15
5/5/15
5/12/15
5/19/15
5/26/15
6/2/15
6/9/15
6/16/15
6/23/15
6/30/15
7/7/15
All Trains -‐ Features CFD – Release 3
Done In Progress To Do
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4/7/15
4/14/15
4/21/15
4/28/15
5/5/15
5/12/15
5/19/15
5/26/15
6/2/15
6/9/15
6/16/15
6/23/15
6/30/15
All Trains -‐ Story Count CFD – Release 3
Done Ready To Validate In Progress To Do Blocked
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Further reading on decisions
http://zsoltbabocsai.org/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/10/predictably-‐irrational-‐342x500-‐205x300.jpg
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“As sober irrational as a judge”
Source: http://www.economist.com/node/18557594
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Takeaway action
Source:
Action:
Map a (simple) process & identify the cycle time for decisions
Why?
Delays represent a significant ‘waste’ in many processes
Metric:
Lead time (from idea to customer)
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Problem: “We have too many decisions to make”
Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/10/Florida_Gopher_Tortoise.jpg
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SECAR: Simplify, Eliminate, Combine, Automate, Relocate
Source: http://www.portalsoin.com.br/wp-‐content/uploads/2010/11/secar_premium_02.jpg
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Simplify: Kanban boards: WIP limits & lane definitions
Source: Picture courtesy of client
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Simplify: consistent user story format
Source: http://www.romanpichler.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/03/ConstraintStory.jpg
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Eliminate: 3 types of decisions (and work)
Source: http://influitive.com/wp-‐content/uploads/three-‐pie-‐chart.jpg
necessary non-‐value add
value add non value-‐add
runners
repeaters
rarities
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Roughly right vs. analysis paralysis
Source: http://img.timeinc.net/time/magazine/archive/covers/1965/1101651231_400.jpg
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Short decision-‐making lead time reduces Cost of Delay
Source: http://i2.wp.com/blackswanfarming.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/03/short-‐horizon-‐reduced-‐peak-‐urgency-‐curve.png
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Type 1 vs. Type 2 thinking (and decisions)
Source: http://footage.framepool.com/shotimg/152416915-‐dimple-‐upward-‐ inspiration-‐concept-‐undershirt.jpg
optimism bias
anchoring effect
loss aversionsunk cost
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Prioritise epics/features relatively: value, urgency, size
Source:http://www.agileadvice.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/07/The-‐Bucket-‐System-‐600x176.png
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Prioritise using an economic framework
Source:
§ Use Weighted Shortest Job First (WSJF)
§ Relatively compare features: cost of delay ÷ job size
§ Prioritise delivery based on highest WSJF (common sense check)
User/Business Value + Urgency + RR/OE* ValueJob Size
WSJF =
*RR/OE = Risk reduction / opportunity enablement
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Automate (+ a common sense check)
Source:
Minimise time spent deciding “no brainers”
Each column must have at least one “1”. You may use numbers more than once. Use the standard story point values: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20.
FeatureUser /
Business Value
Urgency RR/OE Value
Cost of
DelayJob Size WSJF
Implement 24/7 processing 13 8 8 29 3 9.6
Accept payments in USD 1 1 2 4 1 4
Self-service by providers 3 1 2 6 2 3
Single sign-on 1 1 1 3 2 1.5
Payment via PayPal 8 3 13 22 2 11
+ + = =÷
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Combine: Big Room Planning – the secret sauce
Source: www.rallydev.com
20,000 decisions~500 people
2 days
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Automate: “I’m trying to pare down decisions” -‐ Obama
Source: http://media.nbcchicago.com/images/1200*900/obama+suit-‐640.jpghttps://cdn1.vox-‐cdn.com/thumbor/4mFlTD8G3WLITcvNILqIjxvLGTo=/0x40:2038x1399/1280x854/cdn0.vox-‐cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/48636121/zuckcloset.0.0.jpg
“I don’t want to make decisions about what I’m
eating or wearing. Because I have too
many other decisions to make.”
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Relocate: Centralised vs. de-‐centralised
Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a4/Parliament_House,_Canberra,_Pano_jjron_25.9.2008-‐edit1.jpg
economies of scale
infrequentnot time critical
need local input
frequenttime critical
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Why? Free up non value-‐adding time for innovation
Source: Provided courtesy of friend
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Avoid context switching: let the teams focus on their work
Source: http://images.veer.com/stock-‐photos/do-‐not-‐multitask-‐sticky-‐note-‐10566717.jpg
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Activity: context switching is costly and error prone
Source:
Workstream 1:
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Workstream 2:
Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, Delta, Echo, Foxtrot, Golf, Hotel, India, Juliet
Workstream 3:
Clap 1x, clap 2x, clap 3x, clap 4x, clap 5x, clap 6x, clap 7x, clap 8x, clap 9x, clap 10x.
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Further reading – snap decisions
Source: http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/1505/1307/1600/blink.jpg
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Takeaway action
Source:
Action:
Use SECAR on decision-‐making activities
Why?
Reduce cost of delay, prioritise objectively, bias towards smaller / higher value work
Metric:
Capacity of system to deliver (story points per Release)
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Problem “How can our teams make better decisions?”
Source: http://www.valeofglamorgan.gov.uk/Images/Unsorted/library-‐2/diversegroup.jpg
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“[Cognitively] diverse teams make better decisions”
Source: https://jerue.org/wp-‐content/uploads/2016/01/Rey-‐In-‐Star-‐Wars.jpg
“A person’s value depends on her
ability to improve the collective
decision.” – Juliet Bourke
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6 lenses of problem solving & diverse teams
Source: http://cdn.meaningfullife.org/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/10/looking-‐through-‐a-‐lens.jpg
evidence
optionsoutcomes
riskpeopleprocess
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What makes teams ‘smart’?
Source: http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ff160db409c27975a834e88f6e4e64d2?width=650
communicationequal participationemotion-‐reading
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Innovation behaviours
Source: http://jilltoyoshiba.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/04/wGreenSlide.jpg
everyone is heardsafe to propose new ideasdecision-‐making authorityshare creditgive actionable feedbackimplement team’s feedback
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Takeaway action
Source:
Action:
Build long-‐lived, cross-‐functional teams around ability and cognitive diversity
Why?
Improved decision-‐making, productivity and innovation
Metric:
Team size, lead time, WIP
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Thank you & questions
Source: http://heartsconverse.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2012/04/Black-‐woman-‐thinking.jpg
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ROTI – return on time invested (this session)
Source: http://blogs.adobe.com/agile/files/2013/12/hands-‐counting.jpghttps://s-‐media-‐cache-‐ak0.pinimg.com/736x/4e/5c/f7/4e5cf7d4ccb9c59b6620a9c71944d51e.jpghttps://dq9ucdqjq6nrk.cloudfront.net/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/02/01_sad_emoticon-‐300x269.jpghttps://s-‐media-‐cache-‐ak0.pinimg.com/736x/e9/9b/54/e99b541789969921ebd0110309a35f63.jpg