Swing seats: the General Election of 2015

Lewis BastonFor 28 April 2015 update

The majority of individual seats are easy to predict

Con

Lab

Lib Dem

Others

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

210

210

20

23

96

48

37

5

SafeMarginal

Marginals: what affects constituency results

National (and Eng./ Wales)

vote share/ lead

Incumbency (Con hope)

Ground game (Lab

hope)

Tactical votes

UKIP and Green, and where the

votes came from

Local, sub-regional

peculiarities, demographics

The first 40 Labour targets…

2010 2015 2010 2015Warwickshire North Con Lab Dewsbury Con LabThurrock Con Lab Warrington South Con LabHendon Con Lab Bedford Con LabCardiff North Con Lab Brent Central LD LabSherwood Con Lab Brighton Kemptown Con LabNorwich South LD Lab Pudsey Con ConStockton South Con Lab Brentford & Isleworth Con LabBroxtowe Con Lab Hove Con LabLancaster & Fleetwood Con Lab Enfield North Con LabBradford East LD Lab Hastings & Rye Con LabAmber Valley Con Lab Manchester WithingtonLD LabWaveney Con Lab Burnley LD LabWolverhampton South West Con Lab Ipswich Con LabMorecambe & Lunesdale Con Con Dundee East SNP SNPCarlisle Con Lab Dunbartonshire East LD SNPStroud Con Con Halesowen & Rowley R Con LabWeaver Vale Con Lab Nuneaton Con LabLincoln Con Lab Gloucester Con ConBrighton Pavilion Green Green Northampton North Con LabPlymouth Sutton & Devonport Con Lab Bury North Con Lab

… and the next 40

2010 2015 2010 2015Kingswood Con Con Watford Con ConErewash Con Lab Carmarthen WASP Con ConBlackpool N & Cleveleys Con Con Vale of Glamorgan Con ConCity of Chester Con Lab Argyll & Bute LD SNPArfon Plaid C Plaid C Dumfriesshire CT Con ConCroydon Central Con Lab Carmarthen E&D Plaid C Plaid CWorcester Con Con Norwich North Con LabKeighley Con Lab High Peak Con ConWirral West Con Lab Milton Keynes South Con ConCannock Chase Con Lab Rossendale & Darwen Con ConLoughborough Con Con Cleethorpes Con ConHarrow East Con Lab Somerset North East Con ConWarwick & Leamington Con Con Great Yarmouth Con ConBirmingham Yardley LD Lab Dudley South Con LabSwindon South Con Con Dover Con ConEaling Central & Acton Con Lab Colne Valley Con ConPendle Con Lab South Ribble Con ConStevenage Con Peterborough Con ConElmet & Rothwell Con Con Stafford Con ConEdinburgh West LD SNP Stourbridge Con Con

Lib Dem v Conservative (wild cards excepted)

2010 2015 2010 2015St Albans Con Con Taunton Deane LD ConMontgomeryshire Con Con Berwick-upon-Tweed LD ConWatford Con Con Eastleigh LD LDHarrogate & Knaresborough Con Con Aberdeenshire W & K LD SNPNewton Abbot Con Con Torbay LD LDTruro & Falmouth Con Con Cheltenham LD LDOxford W & Abingdon Con Con Brecon & Radnorshire LD LDCamborne & Redruth Con Con Portsmouth South LD ConSolihull LD Con Devon North LD LDDorset Mid & Poole North LD Con Carshalton & WallingtonLD LDWells LD Con Berwickshire RS LD ConSt Austell & Newquay LD Con Edinburgh West LD SNPSomerton & Frome LD Con Kingston & Surbiton LD LDSutton & Cheam LD LD Cambridge LD LabSt Ives LD LD Southport LD LDChippenham LD Con Thornbury & Yate LD LDCheadle LD LDCornwall North LD LDEastbourne LD LD

Lib Dem v Labour or Nationalist

2010 2015 2010 2015Chesterfield Lab Lab Argyll & Bute LD SNPEdinburgh South Lab Lab Gordon LD SNPSheffi eld Central Lab Lab Ceredigion LD LDAshfield Lab Lab Inverness Nairn etc LD SNPOldham E & Saddleworth Lab Lab Caithness Sutherland ER LD SNPNorwich South LD Lab Aberdeenshire W & K LD SNPBradford East LD Lab Edinburgh West LD SNPBrent Central LD Lab Dunbartonshire East LD SNPManchester Withington LD Lab Fife North East LD SNPBurnley LD Lab Berwickshire Rox S LD ConDunbartonshire East LD SNP Ross, Skye & Lochaber LD SNPBirmingham Yardley LD LabEdinburgh West LD SNP Orkney & Shetland LD LDArgyll & Bute LD SNPRedcar LD LabHornsey & Wood Green LD LabCardiff Central LD LabCambridge LD LabBermondsey & O Southwark LD LDBristol West LD LD

London 2010-15 (Con 28, Lab 38, Lib Dem 7)

London 2015? Con 21 (18-26); Lab 47 (41-51) LD 5 (4-5); UKIP 0 (0-1)

London marginals

  GE 2010 lead %

LA 2012lead %

LB 2014 lead %

Ashcroft lead %

My guess

Westminster North Lab 5 Con 1 Lab 9 - Lab

Tooting Lab 5 Lab 1 Lab 5 - Lab

Eltham Lab 4 Lab 7 Lab 9 - Lab

Hampstead & Kilburn Lab 0 Lab 4 Lab 4 Lab 17 Lab

           

Hendon Con 0 Lab 25 Lab 1 Lab 15 Lab

Brentford & Isleworth Con 4 Lab 4 Lab 12 Lab 13 Lab

Enfield North Con 4 Lab 5 Lab 11 Lab 10 Lab

Croydon Central Con 6 Con 0 Lab 3 Lab 4 Lab

Harrow East Con 7 Lab 7 Con 4 Lab 4 Lab

Ealing Central & Acton Con 8 Con 9 Lab 2 Lab 6 Lab

Ilford North Con 12 Con 2 Con 2 - Lab

Battersea Con 12 Con 20 Con 12 - Con

Finchley & Golders G Con 12 Lab 6 Con 3 Lab 2 Con

Enfield Southgate Con 17 Con 7 Lab 2 - Con

‘Big beasts’ on the edge of extinction

Portillo moments?

Douglas Alexander (Paisley & Renfrewshire South)

8-11 points behind SNP in Ashcroft polls

Hard to see how he can win given the Scottish trends

Like Chris Patten, may end up with a national win for his campaign and a personal loss

Who is Foreign Secretary under Labour?

Jim Murphy (East Renfrewshire) 9 points behind in

Ashcroft poll April, 1 ahead in January

Tactical votes might save him?

Terrifying prospect for Scottish Labour to lose: Jim the last throw of the dice?

Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam) Consistently slightly behind

in constituency polling Are the Conservatives

really trying in Hallam? VERY hard to imagine

Labour winning in this very affluent constituency.

But it has to be taken seriously (even if I think he will hold on…)

Impact on negotiations after election?

The prediction, and the remaining uncertainty

Maybe? Maybe not

Do campaigns matter?

Lots of undecided voters Weak attachment of

people to parties and voting

People take inconsistent views e.g. on leadership, party, which issues matter

‘Ground campaign’ and incumbency matter

Why do they hardly ever matter (except for 1992)?

Not even any proper debates this time

Even Farage, Clegg known quantities

No new arguments Polls haven’t moved

suddenly for ages

Overall predictions

2010 L’brokes E. F’cast Guardian

LSB

Con 306 282.5 283 272 272

Lab 258 269.5 271 273 272

LD 57 24.5 24 27 28

UKIP 0 3.5 1 3 3

SNP 6 49.5 47 53 51

Other GB

5 2.5 6 4 6

Other NI 18 18 18 18 18

Prediction points

NOBODY is predicting a

majority

Lab and LD do better in seat by seat work

Con and SNP do better in

‘global’ prediction

Nobody expects a working

majority for a 2-party coalition

Predictions have

converged

Who will be tenant of 10 Downing Street?

PROBABLY Ed…

Black Swan territory?

Poll error?Campaign effect? We’re factoring it in a bit.Late swingStronger than usual incumbencyCollapse in UKIP and/or Greens?Con running out of time…

The Conservative ‘Event Horizon’

Majority 326 (323)

Coalition 2010: 363

DUP 8-10 UKIP?

50 bloc losses

The Conservative ‘Event Horizon’: 283 seats

Below this point forming a government is basically impossible (despite 22-seat lead over Labour).

Winning extra seats from Lib Dems or UKIP wouldn’t help; errors in minor parties will mostly self-cancel within blocs.

Getting above 283 doesn’t necessarily mean a Con government but would make it worth Cameron staying in Downing Street to see if it could be done. Lib Dems may not help.

I have Con 11 under the Event Horizon – within margin of error for any method.

Conclusion

Small (but non zero) chance of the campaign changing the situation, and if it does the Conservatives are the likely beneficiaries

A weak government, probably a Labour minority government

A second election? A mess – but at least a mess with some talented new

people starting their political careers…

Questions?