SWN Annual Meeting Presentation 06.19.15 Daraius Irani

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research

RESI of Towson University

Daraius Irani, Ph.D.Chief Economist, RESI

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RackaFracka.com

2004Q2

2004Q4

2005Q2

2005Q4

2006Q2

2006Q4

2007Q2

2007Q4

2008Q2

2008Q4

2009Q2

2009Q4

2010Q2

2010Q4

2011Q2

2011Q4

2012Q2

2012Q4

2013Q2

2013Q4

2014Q2

2014Q4$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Real Gross Domestic ProductSeasonally Adjusted, Chained Dollars (2004Q2 to 2015Q1)

Recession US GDP % Change

Billi

ons

of D

olla

rs

Annu

al R

ate

of C

hang

e

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Percent Change in Gross Domestic Product by GDP Component

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2013 2014 2015

II II III IV I II III IV I Gross domestic product 2.7 1.8 4.5 3.5 -2.1 4.6 5 2.2 -0.7

Personal consumption expenditures 2.45 1.23 1.39 2.51 0.83 1.75 2.21 2.98 1.23

Gross private domestic investment 1.12 1.03 2.5 0.62 -1.13 2.87 1.18 0.61 0.12

Net exports of goods and services -0.08 -0.54 0.59 1.08 -1.66 -0.34 0.78 -1.03 -1.9

Government consumption expenditures and gross investment -0.75 0.04 0.04 -0.71 -0.15 0.31 0.8 -0.35 -0.2

2004Q2

2004Q4

2005Q2

2005Q4

2006Q2

2006Q4

2007Q2

2007Q4

2008Q2

2008Q4

2009Q2

2009Q4

2010Q2

2010Q4

2011Q2

2011Q4

2012Q2

2012Q4

2013Q2

2013Q4

2014Q2

2014Q4$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

U.S. Personal Consumption ExpendituresSeasonally Adjusted 2004Q2 to 2015Q1

Recession PCE Compound Annual Rate of Change

Billi

ons

of 2

0009

Cha

ined

Dol

lars

Com

poun

d An

nual

Rat

e of

Cha

nge


Source: Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

1/1/0

4

7/1/0

4

1/1/0

5

7/1/0

5

1/1/0

6

7/1/0

6

1/1/0

7

7/1/0

7

1/1/0

8

7/1/0

8

1/1/0

9

7/1/0

9

1/1/1

0

7/1/1

0

1/1/1

1

7/1/1

1

1/1/1

2

7/1/1

2

1/1/1

3

7/1/1

3

1/1/1

4

7/1/1

4

1/1/1

50

20

40

60

80

100

Consumer Sentiment IndexMonthly (Jan. 2004 to June

2015)

Recession Consumer Sentiment Base Year (1966 = 100)

Inde

x Va

lue

Nov. 2008-55.3

June 2015-94.6

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: University of Michigan, Thomson Reuters

2007 to 2009

2001

1990 to 1991

1981 to 1982

1980

54.0

109.3

71.5

65.5

69.8

18

8

8

16

6

Average Consumer Sentimentin Past Recessions

And length of recessions (1980 to 2007)

Length of recession (months) Consumer Sentiment

Sources: University of Michigan, Thomson Reuters© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research

2003Q1

2003Q3

2004Q1

2004Q3

2005Q1

2005Q3

2006Q1

2006Q3

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

2013Q1

2013Q3

2014Q1

2014Q3

2015Q10.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Delinquency Rates by Loan Type

Seasonally Adjusted (2003Q1 to 2015Q1)

Recession Single Family Residential Loans Credit Cards Other Consumer Loans

Perc

ent R

ate

© Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2010Q1: 11.3%

2009Q2: 6.8%

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Gary Varvel

Jan-01

Aug-01

Mar-0

2

Oct-02

May-0

3

Dec-03

Jul-04

Feb-05

Sep-05

Apr-06

Nov-06

Jun-07Jan-08

Aug-08

Mar-0

9

Oct-09

May-1

0

Dec-10

Jul-11

Feb-12

Sep-12

Apr-13

Nov-13

Jun-14Jan-15

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Number of Job Openings and Unemployed Workers

Seasonally Adjusted (Jan. 2001 to April 2015)

Job Openings Unemployment Level

Unemployment Level

Job Openings Level

Thou

sand

s of

Wor

kers

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Dec-99

Apr-03

Aug-06

Dec-09

Apr-13

Aug-16

Dec-19

Apr-23

Aug-26

Dec-29

Apr-33

Aug-36

Dec-39

Apr-43

Aug-46

Dec-49

Apr-53

Aug-56

Dec-59

Apr-63

Aug-66

Dec-69

Apr-73

Aug-76

Dec-79

Apr-83

Aug-86

Dec-89

Apr-93

Aug-96

Dec-99

Apr-03

Aug-06

Dec-09

Apr-13

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

National Rate of Unemployment and Underemployment

Seasonally Adjusted (2007 to May 2015)

Recession Underemployed Unemployed

Perc

ent o

f Lab

or F

orce

© Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan-07

May-0

7

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-0

8

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-0

9

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-1

0

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-1

1

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-1

2

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-1

3

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-1

4

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-1

50

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

Unemployed Workers by Duration of Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted (2007 to May 2015)

Short Term Long Term Average duration

Thou

sand

s of W

orke

rs

Wee

ks

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics© Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research

© Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research Source: Lisa Benson


Jan-05

May-0

5

Sep-05

Jan-06

May-0

6

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-0

7

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-0

8

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-0

9

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-1

0

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-1

1

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-1

2

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-1

3

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-1

4

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-1

5132,000

134,000

136,000

138,000

140,000

142,000

144,000

146,000

148,000

150,000

National EmploymentJan. 2005-May 2015

Thou

sand

s of

Wor

kers

Dec. 2009:138.0 mil-

lion

Nov. 2007:146.6

million

16 to 24 25 to 54 55 and Older0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

66.1%

83.6%

29.7%

63.3%

83.3%

34.5%

54.9%

81.4%

40.5%

49.6%

81.0%

41.5%

Labor Force Participation Rateby Age Group

(1992 to 2022)

1992 2002 2012 2022 (Projected)

Labo

r Fo

rce

Parti

cipa

tion

Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Life, Physical, and Social Sciences

Legal

Education, Training, and Library

Business and Finance

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance

Community and Social Service

Computer and Mathematical

Personal Care and Service

Construction and Extraction

Healthcare Practitioners and Technicians

Health Support

10.1%

10.7%

11.1%

12.5%

12.5%

17.2%

18.0%

20.9%

21.4%

21.5%

28.1%

National Employment Projections by Major Occupational Groups

Growth above 10% (2012 to 2022)


Farming, Fishing, and Forestry

Production

Office and Administrative Support

Arts, Design, Enterntainment, Sports, and Media

Management

Archictecture and Engineering

Sales and Related

Protective Service

Transportation and Material Moving

Food Preparation and Serving Related

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

-3.4%

0.8%

6.8%

7.0%

7.2%

7.3%

7.3%

7.9%

8.6%

9.4%

9.6%

National Employment Projections by Major Occupational Groups

Growth below 10% (2012 to 2022)


© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Drew Sheneman

2004Q1

2004Q3

2005Q1

2005Q3

2006Q1

2006Q3

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

2013Q1

2013Q3

2014Q1

2014Q3

2015Q10

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

19.0%

20.0%

21.0%

Full- vs. Part-time JobsSeasonally Adjusted (2004Q1 to

2015Q1)

Full-Time Part-Time Part-Time Share

Empl

oym

ent (

in th

ousa

nds)

Part

-tim

e Pe

rcen

t Sha

re o

f Tot

al




Low Wage

Mid Wage

High Wage

-3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000

-1,518,667

-2,347,332

-531,991

3,299,024

2,565,475

1,148,055

National Employment QualityDuring and After Recession, Private

Sector

Pre-recession Post-recession

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Jack Ohman, Tribune Media Services

Mid-Atlantic Region GDP GrowthPercent Change, 2009 Chained Dollars

State 2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010-2011

2012-2011

2011-2012

2012-2013

2013-2014

Maryland 1 -0.3 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 1

Pennsylvania 0.3 -2.1 2.2 1.1 0.7 1.5 1.8 0.3

Virginia 0 0.5 2.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0 0

Delaware -5.6 3 0.6 1.2 -3 0.7 1.2 -5.6

DC 3.3 -1.3 2.8 1.9 0 -0.6 1.6 3.3

© Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Mid-Atlantic Region Unemployment RankingsApril Unemployment Rates, Seasonally Adjusted

State 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Maryland 7.1 6.9 6.7 5.9 5.3

Pennsylvania 7.8 7.6 7.3 6.0 5.3

Virginia 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.3 4.8

Delaware 7.6 7.1 7.0 5.9 4.5

DC 10.3 9.2 8.6 7.8 7.5



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

-0.00999999999999998

1.90819582357449E-17

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

4.2% 4.1%3.9%

3.5%

4.4%

7.1%7.6%

7.1%6.9%

6.5%

5.8%

Maryland Historic Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted (2004 to 2014)

Unem

ploy

men

t rat

e



Although jobs are being created, too many of them are part-time to maintain growth in

household incomes.”-William A. Galston, The Wall

Street Journal

Source: Cagle Cartoons

Jan-04Jan-05

Jan-06Jan-07

Jan-08Jan-09

Jan-10Jan-11

Jan-12Jan-13

Jan-14Jan-15

2,600,000

2,650,000

2,700,000

2,750,000

2,800,000

2,850,000

2,900,000

2,950,000

3,000,000

3,050,000

Actual vs Needed Employment Growth in Maryland

Seasonally Adjusted (Jan. 2004 to April 2015)

Desired Employment (96.6% of Labor Force) Actual Employment

Empl

oym

ent

+38,078Jobs not realized

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

+154,822

Employment peak:

2.9 million jobs

Employment trough:

2.8 million jobs

Jobs lost

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Low Wage

Mid Wage

High Wage

3,122

-59,058

8,932

42,300

19,884

11,066

Maryland Employment Growth by WageDuring and After Recession (Private

Sector)

Post-recession Pre-recession

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Maryland DLLR, RESI

Education and Health Services

Professional and Business Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Retail Trade

Government

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Mining, Logging, and Construction

Financial Activities

Information

Manufacturing

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

14.8

9.69999999999999

7.20000000000005

4.69999999999999

3.59999999999997

3.39999999999998

3.19999999999999

0.399999999999977

0

-2

Change in Employment in MarylandSeasonally Adjusted, In Thousands,

April 2014-2015

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Newsday

Jan-2004

May-2

004

Sep-2004

Jan-2005

May-2

005

Sep-2005

Jan-2006

May-2

006

Sep-2006

Jan-2007

May-2

007

Sep-2007

Jan-2008

May-2

008

Sep-2008

Jan-2009

May-2

009

Sep-2009

Jan-2010

May-2

010

Sep-2010

Jan-2011

May-2

011

Sep-2011

Jan-2012

May-2

012

Sep-2012

Jan-2013

May-2

013

Sep-2013

Jan-2014

May-2

014

Sep-14

Jan-15100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index

Monthly (Jan. 2004 to Mar. 2015)

Inde

x Va

lue

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices

July ‘06184.6

March ‘15

168.03

Jan 1981

Jan 1982

Jan 1983

Jan 1984

Jan 1985

Jan 1986

Jan 1987

Jan 1988

Jan 1989

Jan 1990

Jan 1991

Jan 1992

Jan 1993

Jan 1994

Jan 1995

Jan 1996

Jan 1997

Jan 1998

Jan 1999

Jan 2000

Jan 2001

Jan 2002

Jan 2003

Jan 2004

Jan 2005

Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 20150

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Housing Starts in U.S.(Jan. 1981 to May 2015)

Current Level – May 2015


Sources: US Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Urban Development

Tota

l Priv

atel

y-O

wne

d, In

thou

sand

s

May2015: 1,036

2012Q1

2012Q2

2012Q3

2012Q4

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q40

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

$254 $263

$342

$388 $388

$354

$206

$155

$123 $118 $115$128

$175 $170

$108$98 $98 $96 $95 $91

Mortgage Refinance Loans and 30-Year Fixed Rate

U.S. Actual and Projected, 2012Q1 through 2016Q4

Mortgage Refinance Originations 30-Year FRM

Loan

Am

ount

(bill

ions

)

Fixe

d Ra

te

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association


ProjectionsMeasured

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chAp

rilM

ayJu

neJu

lyAu

gust

Sept

embe

rO

ctob

erN

ovem

ber

Dece

mbe

rJa

nuar

yFe

brua

ryM

arch

April

May

June

July

Augu

stSe

ptem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

rDe

cem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chAp

rilM

ayJu

neJu

lyAu

gust

Sept

embe

rO

ctob

erN

ovem

ber

Dece

mbe

rJa

nuar

yFe

brua

ryM

arch

April

May

June

July

Augu

st

SeptemberOct

ober

Nov

embe

rDe

cem

ber

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chAp

rilM

ay

Months of Inventory vs. Active InventoryMaryland (2011 to 2015)

Months of Inventory Active Inventory

Mon

ths

Hom

es

Source: Maryland Association of Realtors


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Maryland Association of Realtors


Jan-08

Apr-08Jul-0

8

Oct-08Jan-09

Apr-09Jul-0

9

Oct-09Jan-10

Apr-10Jul-1

0

Oct-10Jan-11

Apr-11Jul-1

1

Oct-11Jan-12

Apr-12Jul-1

2

Oct-12Jan-13

Apr-13Jul-1

3

Oct-13Jan-14

Apr-14Jul-1

4

Oct-14Jan-15

Apr-15

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Maryland Home Prices vs. Sales(Jan. 2008 to May 2015)

Average Price Units Sold

Aver

age

Pric

e

Uni

ts S

old

Rentals and Apartments

Apartment vacancy rate: 8.6%, a 9-year low

Rental market by age of renter: 25-34: 27.3% 35-44: 21.5%

Rent has increased 3.4% from 2007-2012

Renters on average allocate 32.9% of income toward housing costs

Source: Baltimore Business Journal© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research

2005Q1

2005Q3

2006Q1

2006Q3

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

2013Q1

2013Q3

2014Q1

2014Q3

2015Q10

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Maryland Rental Vacancy Rate and Building Permits for Buildings with 5+ Units in Maryland

2005-2015

Building Permits for Structures with 5 Units or More Rental Vacancy Rate

Perc

ent V

acan

t

Build

ing

Perm

its fo

r 5+

Uni

t Str

uctu

res

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: U.S. Census Bureau

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: U.S. Census Bureau

2005Q1

2005Q3

2006Q1

2006Q3

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

2013Q1

2013Q3

2014Q1

2014Q3

2015Q10

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Maryland Rental Vacancy Rates and Northeast Units under Construction

2005-2015

NE Total Units under Construction at End of Quarter MD Rental Vacancy Rate

Uni

ts u

nder

Con

stru

ction

at E

nd o

f Qua

rter

Rent

al V

acan

cy R

ate

(%)

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Mark Anderson


Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Harford County Unemployment Rate

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Harford County Maryland

Perc

ent U

nem

ploy

men

t

- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Anne Arundel281,795

Mid-Maryland279,480

Frederick137,236

Montgomery628,899

Southern Maryland137,913

Upper Shore78,207

Baltimore571,721

Baltimore City367,444

Lower Shore99,802

Prince George's367,775

Susquehanna142,018

Western Maryland140,135

2010-2020 Job Openings

2010

-201

0 Em

ploy

men

t G

row

th

Source: Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation

Employment Growth and Job Openingsby WIA (2010 to 2020)

Wes

tern

Mar

ylan

d &

Eas

tern

Sho

re

Cen

tral

Mar

ylan

d


Information

Natural Resources and Mining

State Government

Other Services/Unclassified


Manufacturing

Construction

Local Government




Federal Government


0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

298

254

580

2,732

2,969

4,427

5,240

8,999

9,101

10,622

10,825

12,100

19,727

Harford County Employment by Sector (2014 Q3)

Source: Maryland DLLR© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research

Source: Maryland DLLR© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research


Construction


Other Services




Information


Manufacturing

-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

467

431

296

46

41

1

-42

-48

-77

-187

Harford County Employment Change

2013 Q3 - 2014 Q3

Harford County Commuter Patternsby Place of Work (2011)

Source: U.S. Census OnTheMap© Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research

70,573 Live Inside, Employed Outside

30,923 Live Outside, Employed Inside

35,800 Live and Work in Harford County

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Cecil County Unemployment RateNot Seasonally Adjusted

Cecil County Maryland

Perc

ent

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics© Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research


Information

State Government


Other Services/Unclassified


Construction

Professional & Business Services

Federal Government

Local Government

Education & Health Services

Manufacturing



0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

112

547

604

838

937

1,160

1,693

1,746

3,554

4,073

4,261

4,845

6,450

Cecil County Employment by Sector 2014 Q3

Source: Maryland DLLR

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Maryland DLLR



Other Services



Construction

Manufacturing

Information



-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

266

100

36

23

0

-3

-6

-14

-45

-111

Cecil County Employment Change 2013 Q3-2014 Q3

Cecil County Commuter Patternsby Place of Work (2011)

Source: U.S. Census OnTheMap© Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research

29,053 Live Inside, Employed Outside

13,012 Live Outside, Employed Inside

12,876 Live and

Work in Cecil County


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

261 274304 306 317 294 268 255 248 244 241

839

908

9731,015

1,0491,014

948906

873 865830

Establishments: NAICS 23-Construction Susquehanna Region, 2003-2013

Cecil County Harford County

Source: BLS QCEW


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1,621 1,542 1,584 1,520 1,548 1,3591,096 994 1,104

5,856

6,506

7,038 7,1776,887

6,296

5,258 5,249

5,120 5,122

5,230

Employment: NAICS 23-Con-struction

Susquehanna Region, 2003-2013

Cecil County Harford County

Source: BLS QCEW

Moody’s ratings

• Cecil County– Rated Aa2 in May 2014

• Harford County– One of 37 local

governments with Aaa rating

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied ResearchSources: Cecil County Government,

Moody’s

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Alexei Talimonov

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

2,650,000

2,700,000

2,750,000

2,800,000

2,850,000

2,900,000

2,950,000

3,000,000

2.1%

-0.6%

-2.6%

-1.1%

1.8%2.0% 2.0%

0.5% 0.5%0.3% 0.3%

RESI Employment OutlookTotal Nonfarm Employment

Growth (2007 to 2017)

Percent Change Employment

Perc

ent C

hang

e

Tota

l Non

farm

Em

ploy

men

t

actual projections

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI


Information

Other Services, except Public Administration

Utilities

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Manufacturing

Transportation and Warehousing

Wholesale Trade

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Finance and Insurance

Retail Trade

Health Care and Social Assistance

Educational Services

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Administrative and Waste Management Services

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Accommodation and Food Services

Mining

Construction

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%

0.2%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.5%

0.7%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%

1.9%1.9%

2.2%2.4%

2.6%2.9%3.0%

7.6%

Projected Employment Growth by Sector2014 to 2015

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

20162017

20182019

2020-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%7.4%

5.6%

6.5%

4.5%

3.7%

-0.3%

2.6%

5.7%

3.5%

2.4%

3.4%

4.8%

5.7% 5.6%

Personal Income GrowthHistorical and Projected Annual

Change (2004 to 2017)

Perc

ent G

row

th


actual projections

Economic Impact Analysis | Policy Analysis | Fiscal Impact Analysis | Survey Development and Analysis | Economic Forecasting | Market Feasibility Analysis | Workforce and Commuter Analysis | Tax Policy Solutions | Economic Development Planning & Strategy | Cost Benefit Analysis | Environmental Policy Analysis | Stakeholder and Community Engagement | Zoning and Land Use Analysis | Real Estate Analysis | Community Impact Analysis | Economic Impact Analysis | Policy Analysis | Fiscal Impact Analysis | Survey Development and Analysis | Economic Forecasting | Market Feasibility Analysis | Workforce and Commuter Analysis | Tax Policy Solutions | Economic Development Planning & Strategy | Cost Benefit Analysis | Environmental Policy Analysis | Stakeholder and Community Engagement | Zoning and Land Use Analysis | Real Estate Analysis | Community Impact Analysis | Economic Impact Analysis | Policy Analysis | Fiscal Impact Analysis | Survey Development and Analysis | Economic Forecasting | Market Feasibility Analysis | Workforce and Commuter Analysis | Tax Policy Solutions | Economic Development Planning & Strategy | Cost Benefit Analysis | Environmental Policy Analysis | Stakeholder and Community Engagement | Zoning and Land Use Analysis | Real Estate Analysis | Community Impact Analysis | Economic Impact Analysis | Policy Analysis | Fiscal Impact Analysis | Survey Development and Analysis | Economic Forecasting | Market Feasibility Analysis | Workforce and Commuter Analysis | Tax Policy Solutions | Economic Development Planning & Strategy | Cost Benefit Analysis | Environmental Policy Analysis | Stakeholder and Community Engagement | Zoning and Land Use Analysis | Real Estate Analysis | Community Impact Analysis | Economic Impact Analysis | Policy Analysis | Fiscal Impact Analysis | Survey Development and Analysis | Economic Forecasting | Market Feasibility Analysis | Workforce and Commuter Analysis | Tax Policy Solutions | Economic Development Planning & Strategy | Cost Benefit Analysis | Environmental Policy Analysis | Stakeholder and Community Engagement | Zoning and Land Use Analysis | Real Estate Analysis | Community Impact Analysis |


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Date post:	07-Aug-2015
Category:	Government & Nonprofit
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