1
Symposium on the 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction
Dr. Jack Hayes Director, Office of Science and TechnologyNOAA National Weather Service
June 16, 2004
Symposium on the 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction
Dr. Jack Hayes Director, Office of Science and TechnologyNOAA National Weather Service
June 16, 2004
A Vision for Environmental Services A Vision for Environmental Services as NWP Enters the Next 50 Yearsas NWP Enters the Next 50 YearsA Vision for Environmental Services A Vision for Environmental Services as NWP Enters the Next 50 Yearsas NWP Enters the Next 50 Years
2
OverviewOverviewOverviewOverview
• Progress: 1950s – Today
• Environmental Services for the 21st Century: Driven by a New Generation of Scientific Models
• Challenges and Strategies
• Progress: 1950s – Today
• Environmental Services for the 21st Century: Driven by a New Generation of Scientific Models
• Challenges and Strategies
3
Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction 1954-Today1954-Today
Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction 1954-Today1954-Today
• Sustained improvement -- Day per decade for over 40 years
• Key to increasingly accurate and longer-lead time weather forecasts and warnings
• Sustained improvement -- Day per decade for over 40 years
• Key to increasingly accurate and longer-lead time weather forecasts and warnings
4
Some ExamplesSome ExamplesImproved Operational Warnings and ForecastsImproved Operational Warnings and Forecasts
Hurricane Track Forecast Errors in Atlantic basin: 24-72 HrsHurricane Track Forecast Errors in Atlantic basin: 24-72 Hrs
5
Some ExamplesSome ExamplesImproved Operational Warnings and ForecastsImproved Operational Warnings and Forecasts
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Year
Th
rea
tS
co
re
Day 1Day 1
Day 2Day 2
QPF 1” Threat Score: Days 1 and 2QPF 1” Threat Score: Days 1 and 2
6
Past Success Generates New ChallengesPast Success Generates New ChallengesPast Success Generates New ChallengesPast Success Generates New Challenges
Nation’s Needs Growing
– Migration to coasts and environmentally sensitive areas
– Awareness of health and economic impacts
– Ecosystem sensitivities
S&T Advancing– Observing systems
Satellites Radar
– Modeling Physics Ensembles
Nation’s Needs Growing
– Migration to coasts and environmentally sensitive areas
– Awareness of health and economic impacts
– Ecosystem sensitivities
S&T Advancing– Observing systems
Satellites Radar
– Modeling Physics Ensembles
7
VisionVision Earth System Models Addressing Wide Range of Earth System Models Addressing Wide Range of
Interdisciplinary Societal NeedsInterdisciplinary Societal Needs
VisionVision Earth System Models Addressing Wide Range of Earth System Models Addressing Wide Range of
Interdisciplinary Societal NeedsInterdisciplinary Societal Needs
• Coupled air, water, land models
– Linked to key societal focus areas – disaster mitigation, energy distribution, health, ecosystems
• Providing increasing specificity and accuracy
– At longer ranges
– Quantifying uncertainty
– In digital form
• Coupled air, water, land models
– Linked to key societal focus areas – disaster mitigation, energy distribution, health, ecosystems
• Providing increasing specificity and accuracy
– At longer ranges
– Quantifying uncertainty
– In digital form
Optimizing pro-active decision making nationally, regionally, and locally
Optimizing pro-active decision making nationally, regionally, and locally
8
Environmental Services for 21Environmental Services for 21stst Century CenturyExamplesExamples
Environmental Services for 21Environmental Services for 21stst Century CenturyExamplesExamples
Tornadoes
• Warning lead times increase from 13 min to 1 hr for neighborhoods and communities
– Virtually eliminating loss of life due to lack of warning
Severe Thunderstorms
• Warning lead times increase from ~18 min to 2 hrs
– Improving air traffic routing--virtually eliminating severe weather–related air traffic delays
Winter Storms
• Warnings days in advance
– Improving commerce and transportation sectors
Tornadoes
• Warning lead times increase from 13 min to 1 hr for neighborhoods and communities
– Virtually eliminating loss of life due to lack of warning
Severe Thunderstorms
• Warning lead times increase from ~18 min to 2 hrs
– Improving air traffic routing--virtually eliminating severe weather–related air traffic delays
Winter Storms
• Warnings days in advance
– Improving commerce and transportation sectors
9
Environmental Services for 21Environmental Services for 21stst Century CenturyExamplesExamples
Environmental Services for 21Environmental Services for 21stst Century CenturyExamplesExamples
Air Quality
• Warnings about poor air quality 4-6 days in advance for metropolitan areas
– Power companies shift to alternate fuels
– Alerts individuals at risk and health care professionals
Climate
• Probabilistic forecasts of temperature and precipitation indicating weekly departures from normal issued months in advance
– Communities and weather-sensitive industries reduce risk
Air Quality
• Warnings about poor air quality 4-6 days in advance for metropolitan areas
– Power companies shift to alternate fuels
– Alerts individuals at risk and health care professionals
Climate
• Probabilistic forecasts of temperature and precipitation indicating weekly departures from normal issued months in advance
– Communities and weather-sensitive industries reduce risk
10
Environmental Services for 21Environmental Services for 21stst Century CenturyExamplesExamples
Environmental Services for 21Environmental Services for 21stst Century CenturyExamplesExamples
Water Resource Information
• Provide high-resolution water quantity, quality, and soil moisture forecasts
– Emergency and resource managers mitigate losses for conditions ranging from droughts to floods
Ecosystem Impact Information
• Provide forecasts of weather, water, climate impacts on ecosystems and scenarios of ecosystem response to management decisions
– “Management decisions reflect relationships among humans, nonhuman species, and the environments in which they live.”
Source: Report by U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy
Water Resource Information
• Provide high-resolution water quantity, quality, and soil moisture forecasts
– Emergency and resource managers mitigate losses for conditions ranging from droughts to floods
Ecosystem Impact Information
• Provide forecasts of weather, water, climate impacts on ecosystems and scenarios of ecosystem response to management decisions
– “Management decisions reflect relationships among humans, nonhuman species, and the environments in which they live.”
Source: Report by U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy
11
Achieving the VisionAchieving the VisionS&T ChallengesS&T Challenges
Achieving the VisionAchieving the VisionS&T ChallengesS&T Challenges
Achieving this level of service excellence will require breakthroughs in S&T:
• Data Assimilation (DA) and Modeling
• Observations
• Dissemination
Achieving this level of service excellence will require breakthroughs in S&T:
• Data Assimilation (DA) and Modeling
• Observations
• Dissemination
12
Challenges: DA and Modeling Challenges: DA and Modeling Challenges: DA and Modeling Challenges: DA and Modeling
• Developing advanced and high resolution DA techniques
– Mesoscale, microscale, better exploitation of satellite data
• Improving models and linkages among weather, water, climate, and other environmental processes
• Advancing probabilistic environmental information characterizing uncertainty
• Improving model post-processing and decision-assistance techniques
• Developing advanced and high resolution DA techniques
– Mesoscale, microscale, better exploitation of satellite data
• Improving models and linkages among weather, water, climate, and other environmental processes
• Advancing probabilistic environmental information characterizing uncertainty
• Improving model post-processing and decision-assistance techniques
Integrated Environmental Forecasts and InformationIntegrated Environmental Forecasts and Information Integrated Environmental Forecasts and InformationIntegrated Environmental Forecasts and Information
13
Challenges: Observations Challenges: Observations Challenges: Observations Challenges: Observations
• Improving temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution at all scales
• Obtaining observations of new environmental elements
• Sustaining data quality and timeliness
• Integrating multi-purpose observing systems and networks within an extensible enterprise architecture
• Improving temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution at all scales
• Obtaining observations of new environmental elements
• Sustaining data quality and timeliness
• Integrating multi-purpose observing systems and networks within an extensible enterprise architecture
Observations when and where needed–integrated, adaptable, Observations when and where needed–integrated, adaptable, extensible, stable, continuous, and quality-assuredextensible, stable, continuous, and quality-assured
Observations when and where needed–integrated, adaptable, Observations when and where needed–integrated, adaptable, extensible, stable, continuous, and quality-assuredextensible, stable, continuous, and quality-assured
14
Challenges: Dissemination Challenges: Dissemination Challenges: Dissemination Challenges: Dissemination
• Keeping pace with need for more data and information
• Expanding content and coverage
• Implementing enterprise information delivery and access systems
• Providing data mining and decision assistance tools
• Keeping pace with need for more data and information
• Expanding content and coverage
• Implementing enterprise information delivery and access systems
• Providing data mining and decision assistance tools
Reach each person in the NationReach each person in the NationReach each person in the NationReach each person in the Nation
15
Meeting the ChallengeMeeting the ChallengeStrategiesStrategies
Meeting the ChallengeMeeting the ChallengeStrategiesStrategies
• Adopt broader view of Environmental Prediction
– Weather, water, and climate forecasts linked to societal impacts
• Implement integrated Earth Observation System -- GEOSS
• Develop common Earth system models, fully exploiting ensemble and other information enhancement techniques
• Adopt broader view of Environmental Prediction
– Weather, water, and climate forecasts linked to societal impacts
• Implement integrated Earth Observation System -- GEOSS
• Develop common Earth system models, fully exploiting ensemble and other information enhancement techniques
16
Meeting the ChallengeMeeting the ChallengeStrategiesStrategies
Meeting the ChallengeMeeting the ChallengeStrategiesStrategies
• Develop and sustain reliable enterprise IT architecture
– Maximizes responsiveness -- promotes scientific interoperability
• Accelerate transition from research to operations
– Better plans, processes, and architectures -- ESMF
• Improve partnerships, nationally and internationally
– Increase collaborations end-to-end -- WRF
• Develop and sustain reliable enterprise IT architecture
– Maximizes responsiveness -- promotes scientific interoperability
• Accelerate transition from research to operations
– Better plans, processes, and architectures -- ESMF
• Improve partnerships, nationally and internationally
– Increase collaborations end-to-end -- WRF
17
SummarySummarySummarySummary
• Advances in NWP over last 50 years have enabled great progress in operational weather forecasting
• Advances in numerical earth-system prediction over next 50 years have potential to transform way society adapts to its changing environment
• Advances in NWP over last 50 years have enabled great progress in operational weather forecasting
• Advances in numerical earth-system prediction over next 50 years have potential to transform way society adapts to its changing environment
