Syndication: The Leader In Audience Retention · is “Off the Charts” ... Mark Kaline of Ford...

Syndication: The Leader In Audience

Retention

An Analysis Of TheAAAA/ANA Study Of

Commercial Audiences

September 2005

Observations

The just-released study by the AAAA, ANA and Nielsen confirms:

• Syndicated programs retain more of their audience through the commercial breaks than either broadcast or cable

• All demos measured in the study

• Syndication is stronger at the daypart level

• Syndication outperforms both network and cable for key genres like sitcoms, dramas, ent. news, feature films, and info./advice

Background/Methodology

• AAAA/ANA in conjunction with Nielsen Media Research analyzed two months of data• 3/29/04 – 4/25/04 and 11/15/04 – 12/12/04• Resolution of :30 second increments• Telecasts with a P2+ rating of 0.3 or greater

• Three key demographics chosen • A18-49, W25-54, M18-34

• AAA/ANA measured “audience drop off”• The percentage of a telecast’s average

audience drop at national commercial time

Note

• In the comparisons that follow, only the top 20% of cable inventory was measured• Based on a study cutoff of 0.3 Persons 2+ rating or

greater

“Some of these may reflect the relative strengths of cable networks’most popular programs but not the other programs on these networks.”

AAAA/ANA August, 2005

Source: Nielsen Media Research, April, 2004. Excludes specials,

Syndication Has More “Holding Power”

Index: Audience Drop-off vs. Syndication

320

300

287

100

100

100

296

250

375

M18-34

W25-54

A18-49

SyndicationNetworkCable

Network and cable have 3 - 4 timesthe audience drop-off of syndication

Source: AAAA/ANA Study of Commercial Audiences, August 2005. % Drop in Audience from Pgm Avg to National Commercial. Index vs. syndication.

Syndication:Better Retains A18-49 Viewers

Index: Audience Drop-off By Daypart vs. Syndication

100

565

200

322

370

200

135

Syndication

Morning

Daytime

E Fringe

Prime

L Fringe

Sat/Sun

Adu

lts

18

-49


Note: Includes both network and cable telecasts

Syndication:Better Retains W25-54 Viewers


100

906

181

363

431

206

131

Syndication

Morning

Daytime

E Fringe

Prime

L Fringe

Sat/Sun

Wom

en 2

5-5

4



Syndication:Better Retains M18-34 Viewers


100

337

250

323

360

213

173

Syndication

Morning

Daytime

E Fringe

Prime

L Fringe

Sat/Sun

Men

18

-34



Syndication’s Sitcoms:Laughing Through The Commercials


381

275

175

100

100

100

261

200

200

M18-34

W25-54

A18-49

Syndication SitcomsPrime Network SitcomsPrime Cable Sitcoms


Network and cable have 2 – 4 timesthe audience drop-off of syndication

Syndication’s Dramas:Waiting To See What’ll Happen Next


783

657

542

100

100

100

533

658

800

M18-34

W25-54

A18-49

Syndication General DramasPrime Network General DramasPrime Cable General Dramas


Network and cable have 5 – 8 timesthe audience drop-off of syndication

Syndication’s Feature Films:No Intermissions Necessary


1031

655

100

100

100

845

677M18-34

W25-54

A18-49

Syndication Feature FilmsPrime Network Feature FilmsPrime Cable Feature Films

Source: AAAA/ANA Study of Commercial Audiences, August 2005. % Drop in Audience from PgmAvg to National Commercial. Index vs. syndication.

* Index not available for W25-54, as syndication’s commercial rating is higher than the program rating.

Syndication’s Feature Film advantageis “Off the Charts”

Syndication’s commercial

rating is actually higher

than its program rating!

**

Syndication’s Entertainment News:Staying Tuned Through The Breaks

Network and cable news have 2 – 4 timesthe drop-off, and E! drops off even more


670

1185

307

100

890

239

415

198

330

267100

100

M18-34

W25-54

A18-49

Syndication Entertainment NewsPrime Network NewsmagazinesPrime Cable NewsE! Network


Syndication’s Info./Advice Shows:Hanging On Every Word


353

100

100

100

615

262

M18-34

W25-54

A18-49

Syndication Info./Advice

Prime Cable Info./Advice


No Network Info./Advice programs reported.

Cable Info/Advice has 3 – 6 timesthe audience drop-off of syndication

Syndication: The Leader In Audience Retention

• Syndication best retains the program audience • 3 to 4 times more than network or cable• Across all demographic groups

measured

• Syndication is stronger at the daypart level

• Syndication outperforms both network and cable for key program genres like sitcoms, dramas, news, feature films, and info./advice

Syndicated Television:

Get With The Program

August 31, 2005

#6503 To media directors or official contacts and all members of media committees.

COMMERCIAL VERSUS PROGRAM RATINGS ANALYSIS Industry interest in commercial ratings has been around for some time. In July 2001, AAAA issued a bulletin, “Commercial Ratings: Why We Need Them Now,” reflecting our members’ interest and reasoning for the importance of commercial ratings. Nielsen Media Research’s most granular reporting is in :60 increments, but members were interested in seeing ratings for smaller units (closer to actual commercial time). The Media Research Committee asked Nielsen to provide two months of program and audience data in :30 increments for broadcast, cable, and syndication to be analyzed for variances between program and commercial audiences. Nielsen supplied this data to AAAA and ANA for analysis by an independent researcher. An AAAA/ANA Task Force oversaw this project. Analysis of ratings for programs versus commercials is a complex task that deserves much more investigation; the attached results are one step toward a better understanding of the capabilities and limitations of current TV ratings. It should be noted that this analysis did not include local commercial audiences or DVR/VCR usage. Further, when channel switching is referred to in this analysis, it represents behavior that is substantive enough to be captured by Nielsen Media Research’s set-top boxes. Rapid channel switching might be too granular to be represented in the provided data set. The joint Task Force plans to continue its work in examining measurement of television audiences. Attached is the analysis, which includes an introduction, background information, and an Executive Summary of key findings. Those agency members (who are Nielsen NTI clients) interested in accessing the database (two months of :30 data) should contact Nielsen Media Research’s Kevin Svenningsen at [email protected] or (646) 654-8300. AAAA thanks Steve Sternberg of Magna Global; Fran Kennish of Mediaedge: cia (Chair of AAAA Media Research Committee); David Marans (formerly of MindShare); Susan Nathan of Universal McCann; and Beth Uyenco (formerly of OMD) for their guidance on this project. Donna G. Campbel l Senior Vice President Media Services Divis ion

AAAA/ANA Study of Commercial AudiencesAugust 2005 -1-

Introduction Industry interest in commercial ratings has been around for sometime. In July 2001, AAAA issued a bulletin, “Commercial Ratings: Why We Need Them Now,” reflecting their members’ interest and reasoning for the importance of commercial ratings. In March 2004, over 75% of ANA Television Advertising Forum attendees were “very interested” in “having commercial ratings readily and easily available.” Subsequently, the AAAA Media Research Committee discussed advertisers’ and agencies’ on-going interest in commercial ratings, which are not currently reported. Because of the proliferation of channels and other viewing options (DVRs, etc.) now available, no one was sure how much audience is retained from program to commercial. Nielsen’s current most granular reporting is in :60 increments, but members were interested in seeing ratings for smaller units (closer to actual commercial time). The committee asked Nielsen to provide two months of program and audience data in :30 increments for broadcast, cable and syndication to be analyzed for variances between program and commercial audiences; Nielsen agreed. The committee then met with some members of the ANA Television Committee to discuss the project; the ANA agreed to participate and a Task Force of AAAA and ANA members was formed to oversee the project. AAAA and ANA thanks Task Force members Steve Sternberg of Magna Global, Fran Kennish of Mediaedge:cia (AAAA Media Research Committee chair), David Marans (formerly of MindShare), Susan Nathan of Universal McCann, Beth Uyenco (formerly of OMD), Mark Kaline of Ford Motor Company, Jessica Walton of The Procter & Gamble Company and Shannon Pedersen of Wendy’s International, Inc. for their guidance and participation. Kevin Svenningsen is thanked for coordinating this effort on Nielsen’s behalf. AAAA and ANA engaged Kevin Killion of Stone House Systems, Inc., to analyze the data and prepare this paper.

Background

Commercial audience reports provide a new “measuring stick” for audience behavior. We have all been awarethat channel switching and other such audience behaviors occur (and have considered that in planningdecisions). Now, newly available data give us a better perspective on potential refinement of decisions. Thisanalysis provides a starting point, anticipating the addition of DVR and VCR activity into reports.

Working with the AAAA and ANA, Nielsen Media Research provided a special tabulation of data from April2004 (March 29 to April 25) and Nov/Dec 2004 (November 15 to December 12). Unlike the conventionalprocessing rules used by Nielsen, this data set was created using a resolution of 30 seconds. In theory, this givesa better handle on behavior of viewers during commercial time. Data were not measured by commercial pod.

To achieve greater stability in our averages, we limited this analysis to those telecasts that had a Persons 2+rating of 0.3 or greater.

Three key demographics were chosen for study, Adults 18-49, Women 25-54, and Men 18-34. All data isNational only.

Audience drop off is the percentage of a telecast’s average audience drop at national commercial time.

It should be noted that measures of commercial audience used in this report reflect viewership changes due tochannel switching, set on/off changes, and those changes in persons in the room that were accurately reportedby respondents. Of course, results do not reflect consumer attentiveness – this is all about potential audience inthe room.

Additional information about the data used in this study is provided in the section “Characteristics of the Data”in the Technical Details portion of this report.

AAAA/ANA Study of Commercial AudiencesAugust 2005 – 2 –

Executive Summary

Overall, about 5% of the reported audience to a program is lost at the time of nationalcommercial positions.

Across the 15,585 telecasts studied, the overall drop in audience from the total program average to thataudience present during commercials is 5.6% for Adult 18-49 viewers, 4.4% for Women 25-54 viewers,and 7.5% for Men 18-34 viewers.

Results were very comparable across the two periods studied (April versus Nov/Dec).

The variation across individual telecasts is substantial.

For Adults 18-49, the drop ranged from a loss of more than three-fourths of the program audience(-77.6%) for one telecast to a gain of more than a third (+34.5%) for another. For a third of telecasts,the audience drop was less than 5%; for another sixth, audience increased at commercial time. Only asmall portion (4.3%) of telecasts had audience drops greater than 20%.

Total Telecasts 15,585 100.0%

A18-49 Audience DropsMore than 50% 43 0.3%

30 to 50% 129 0.8%20 to 30% 494 3.2%10 to 20% 2,757 17.7%5 to 10% 4,247 27.3%0 to 5% 5,243 33.6%

A18-49 Audience Gains0 to 5% 1,970 12.6%

5 to 10% 514 3.3%10 to 20% 167 1.1%

More than 20% 21 0.1%

AAAA/ANA Study of Commercial AudiencesAugust 2005 – 3–

Planning that takes commercial audience history into account produces very small gains indelivered audience.

Due to this wide variation from telecast to telecast within the same program name, it is fair to askwhether a historical record of commercial audience retention can help planners in choosing programsthat will retain audience in future telecasts as well.

In a simulated program selection, using six separate subsets of the data and two target demos, it wasfound that delivered commercial audience can be improved by less than 3% in most cases, and by lessthan 5% in cable prime.

This is a complex area that deserves much more investigation prior to widespread adoption ofcommercial audiences.

There are subtle differences between the “holding power” of broadcast and cable networks.

Overall, programs on broadcast nets had slightly better ability to preserve audiences at commercials forMen 18-34, while cable programs had a better “hold” on Women 25-54 audiences. Syndicatedprograms had smaller drops.

% Drop in Audience from Pgm Averageto National Commercial

A W M A 18-49 A 18-49Telecasts 18-49 25-54 18-34 Range Rating

Broadcast 2457 -6.6 -6.0 -7.5 -77.6 +33.7 1.5Cable 10585 -6.8 -4.8 -9.6 -64.1 +31.6 0.4Syndication 2543 -2.3 -1.6 -3.0 -24.2 +34.5 1.1

That said, it is important to note that there is huge variation among individual telecasts. For Adults 18-49, the audience difference ranges from -78% to +34%. For cable, this range is -64% to +32%, and forsyndication it is -24% to +35%.

There are some differences in commercial-holding ability by dayparts. In mornings (6-9am),about 10 to 15% of audience is lost at commercial time for the demos studied. Daytime doescomparatively well, with a drop of only 2.1% on Women 25-54.


A 18-49Telecasts A 18-49 W 25-54 M 18-34 Rating

Mornings 861 -13.0 -14.5 -10.1 0.5Daytime 2438 -3.1 -2.1 -5.2 0.5Early Fringe 1567 -4.6 -2.9 -7.5 0.5Prime 3716 -7.4 -5.8 -9.7 1.0Late Fringe 2481 -8.5 -6.9 -10.8 0.6Sat-Sun Day 1979 -4.6 -3.3 -6.4 0.5Syndication 2543 -2.3 -1.6 -3.0 1.1


Among the broadcast networks, there is little difference in retention of audience at commercialminutes for either all network telecasts over 24 hours, or prime time alone.



24 Hours

ABC 594 -7.1 -6.4 -7.7 1.5CBS 649 -8.0 -7.3 -9.1 1.5FOX 187 -5.8 -5.1 -6.5 2.3NBC 638 -5.6 -4.9 -6.8 1.8UPN 94 -5.9 -4.7 -7.4 1.2WB 295 -6.1 -5.0 -7.5 0.7

Prime Time

ABC 147 -6.6 -5.3 -8.2 3.1CBS 138 -6.2 -5.3 -7.9 3.8FOX 117 -6.1 -5.4 -7.1 3.1NBC 127 -5.6 -5.0 -6.8 4.1UPN 86 -6.0 -4.8 -7.4 1.2WB 111 -6.6 -5.6 -7.1 1.2

Cable networks show significant differences.

Some of the differences call for further investigation. For example, the best “scores” are those ofHallmark and TVLand, which have less than a 5 point drop in audiences at commercial time, for Adults18-49. Also, viewers of MTV are the most likely to switch out at commercials, with drops of at least15% in all studied demos. Across the 24 hour days, Fox News has roughly half of the dropoff shown byCNN.

However, note that our Persons 2+ cutoff of a 0.3 rating may have affected these comparisons. Forexample, some of these differences may reflect the relative strengths of cable networks’ most popularprograms but not the other programs on these networks. Also, networks with a larger rating overallmight have most of their programs included in these tabulations, while a smaller network may berepresented by only its more significant programs (i.e., those that met the cutoff).


Program types make a difference.

Broadcast morning news/talk programs have significant greater dropoffs than other genres, with aratings difference of some 20% at national commercial minutes.

In broadcast prime, sitcoms as a group have the most attractive “holding power” with drops of only 4 to6%. Nielsen’s “News/Documentary” grouping (e.g., 60 Minutes, Dateline, 48 Hours) has the leastcommercial audience retention (8-9% drop) among the most popular genres.

In cable prime, “popular music” (mostly music video programming) is the most “tune-outable” genrefor all studied demos, with audience drops of 15 to 20%.

Against Men 18-34, sports events on cable tend to have less retaining power at commercial time (about12% drop) than do broadcast sporting events (6-7%). The only exception is for Sat-Sun daytime sportsevents, in which both cable and broadcast have drops of about 7% on Men 18-34.

Our cursory examination was inconclusive on the merit of this specially-processed data with 30second resolution versus conventional data with 60 second resolution.

We noted some intriguing differences between the two limited sets of data, which were based onbroadcast only. With additional data, further work on this question is warranted.


Characteristics & Definitions

Principal Data Source

Data custom-processed by Nielsen using a 30” measurement increment– aggregate data, not respondent– about 37 meg of data, in Excel format– Nielsen reported 70,974 individual telecasts from the two reporting periods combined.

From these, 15,955 individual telecasts with a Persons 2+ rating of 0.3 or greater andwere extracted for analysis. Of these, 275 telecasts had no reportable nationalcommercial 30” slices. Of the remainder, 95 telecasts on PAX were excluded (exceptin broadcast network comparisons). This leaves 15,585 telecasts for most analyses.

– two time periods, April and Nov/Dec– reports program average rating and rating for commercials (and other breaks)– does not consider VCR use– does not consider DVR use

Supplemental Data Source

Standard audience data, developed with Nielsen’s “NPower” program– aggregate data, not respondent– reports program average rating and rating for “commercial + promo minutes” (only)– for each of two time periods, April and Nov/Dec– broadcast only (no cable or syndication data was supplied), no PAX data– does consider VCR use, using usual VCR rules– does not consider DVR use

Terminology and Measures

Unless stated otherwise, “program audience” is the viewing reported across the entire length of a telecast,including program content, commercials, and promotions.

“Commercial audience” is the measure of audience at all 30” measurement slices in a telecast that consist onlyof national commercial announcements, excluding slices identified as local commercial, promo, or mixed.

Audience drop off is the percentage decline of average audience drop at commercial time. In this report, thisdrop for groups of telecasts is computed as the percentage decline in the sum of commercial-time ratings versusthe sum of total-program ratings. This procedure helps to reflect the anticipated experience of placed schedules.


Detailed Findings

Major Breaks

The measure used through most of this study compared program audience to commercial audience, expressingthe result as a percentage drop. We summed audience values across the 15,585 telecasts used in the study,approximating the effect of a schedule of equal spots per program. Overall, we found that commercial audiencewas roughly 95% that of the program average audience. This was approximately true for all three demosstudied, though the drop was a little greater for the young men demo. There was no difference across the twoseparate months examined.



Total Telecasts 15585 -5.6 -4.4 -7.5 0.7

Data PeriodApril 7750 -5.5 -4.4 -7.3 0.7Nov/Dec 7835 -5.7 -4.4 -7.6 0.7

CategoryBroadcast 2457 -6.6 -6.0 -7.5 1.5Cable 10585 -6.8 -4.8 -9.6 0.4Syndication 2543 -2.3 -1.6 -3.0 1.1

Dayparts, BroadMORN 861 -13.0 -14.5 -10.1 0.5DAY 2438 -3.1 -2.1 -5.2 0.5EF 1567 -4.6 -2.9 -7.5 0.5PR 3716 -7.4 -5.8 -9.7 1.0LF 2481 -8.5 -6.9 -10.8 0.6SSDAY 1979 -4.6 -3.3 -6.4 0.5Syndication 2543 -2.3 -1.6 -3.0 1.1

Dayparts, FineMonday-FridayMF 6-7a 168 -10.3 -13.1 -8.2 0.4MF 7-10a 693 -13.6 -14.7 -10.5 0.5MF 10a-1p 676 -3.1 -2.6 -4.3 0.5MF 1-430p 1242 -2.6 -1.8 -4.6 0.5MF 430-6p 520 -4.6 -2.3 -7.1 0.3Sat-Sun 6a-6p 1979 -4.6 -3.3 -6.4 0.5Monday-SundayMSn 6-7p 818 -4.0 -2.4 -6.9 0.6MSn 7-9p 1993 -6.3 -4.9 -8.4 0.8MSn 9-11p 2472 -7.9 -6.2 -10.5 0.9MSn 11-1130p 526 -9.6 -6.9 -12.1 0.5MSn 1130p-1a 1002 -10.6 -9.4 -12.4 0.7MSn 1-6a 953 -4.7 -3.2 -7.2 0.5Syndication 2543 -2.3 -1.6 -3.0 1.1


Source, by Prime and Total Day



Broadcast Nets (Prime)ABC 147 -6.6 -5.3 -8.2 3.1CBS 138 -6.2 -5.3 -7.9 3.8FOX 117 -6.1 -5.4 -7.1 3.1NBC 127 -5.6 -5.0 -6.8 4.1PAX 1 61 -2.9 -2.1 -2.9 --UPN 86 -6.0 -4.8 -7.4 1.2WB 111 -6.6 -5.6 -7.1 1.2Total (w/o Pax) 726 -6.1 -5.2 -7.4 2.9

Cable Nets (Prime) 2

AEN 111 -11.3 -8.6 -17.7 0.4AMC 51 -12.9 -10.6 -13.2 0.3APL 16 -7.5 -4.4 -10.2 0.3BET 18 -8.5 -5.5 -11.3 0.4CMDY 136 -7.5 -5.6 -8.3 0.7CNN 47 -13.6 -9.3 -18.1 0.2COURT 154 -5.1 -3.9 -7.5 0.3DISC 85 -12.3 -9.0 -13.8 0.6ESPN 61 -9.4 -7.3 -11.0 1.1FAM 104 -6.8 -5.7 -9.1 0.5FOOD 20 -8.3 -5.1 -8.8 0.3FOXNC 137 -9.6 -9.4 -10.5 0.3FX 54 -9.5 -7.3 -11.8 0.5HALL 46 -3.6 -3.1 -6.1 0.2HGTV 143 -5.8 -4.5 -8.4 0.3HIST 126 -11.4 -8.2 -14.3 0.4LIF 89 -5.8 -5.0 -6.8 0.6MTV 216 -17.5 -15.7 -20.9 0.7NAN 189 -7.7 -5.5 -13.7 0.5NICK 100 -5.6 -5.6 -6.6 0.4SCIFI 91 -8.5 -5.4 -9.4 0.5SPIKE 71 -9.3 -7.1 -11.8 0.9TBSC 145 -9.6 -8.3 -11.9 0.8TLC 68 -9.3 -8.3 -11.4 0.6TNT 99 -7.8 -5.8 -10.5 0.9TOON 315 -6.1 -4.5 -7.5 0.3TVL 135 -4.5 -2.6 -9.3 0.3USA 128 -8.5 -6.0 -13.0 0.7Total 2990 -9.2 -6.9 -12.2 0.5

1 PAX is shown in these two network comparison tables, but is excluded from all other tables.2 Networks with fewer than 10 telecasts meeting the 0.3 P2+ rating cutoff are not included in this table




Broadcast Nets (24 Hour Total Day)ABC 594 -7.1 -6.4 -7.7 1.5CBS 649 -8.0 -7.3 -9.1 1.5FOX 187 -5.8 -5.1 -6.5 2.3NBC 638 -5.6 -4.9 -6.8 1.8PAX3 95 -4.7 -3.4 -4.9 --UPN 94 -5.9 -4.7 -7.4 1.2WB 295 -6.1 -5.0 -7.5 0.7Total (w/o Pax) 2457 -6.6 -6.0 -7.5 1.5

Cable Nets (24 Hour Total Day) 4

AEN 286 -8.8 -6.6 -13.8 0.3AMC 108 -9.5 -7.5 -10.5 0.3APL 18 -7.2 -4.4 -9.2 0.3BET 28 -7.6 -4.9 -10.5 0.4CMDY 269 -8.1 -6.1 -9.0 0.6CNN 50 -13.8 -9.2 -20.2 0.2COURT 268 -4.7 -3.3 -7.5 0.4DISC 137 -11.5 -8.3 -12.8 0.5ENT 22 -26.7 -23.7 -30.8 0.5ESPN 266 -9.6 -9.0 -9.9 0.7ESPN2 23 -10.7 -6.5 -14.0 0.4FAM 315 -5.7 -4.1 -8.0 0.4FOOD 92 -5.7 -3.1 -8.6 0.3FOXNC 693 -5.8 -5.4 -6.7 0.3FX 147 -9.0 -6.4 -11.7 0.5HALL 94 -3.2 -2.6 -4.7 0.2HGTV 216 -5.0 -4.0 -7.3 0.3HIST 187 -10.3 -7.0 -13.6 0.4LIF 374 -5.0 -4.4 -5.8 0.5MTV 587 -15.4 -13.8 -18.2 0.5NAN 892 -5.2 -4.2 -8.1 0.6NICK 1563 -2.4 -2.1 -3.4 0.4SCIFI 182 -7.6 -5.0 -8.8 0.4SPIKE 131 -9.1 -6.8 -11.8 0.8TBSC 535 -6.2 -4.1 -8.3 0.7TLC 134 -7.7 -6.9 -10.5 0.5TNT 639 -5.8 -4.3 -8.6 0.6TOON 1656 -6.6 -4.1 -8.6 0.3TVL 226 -4.3 -2.5 -8.6 0.3USA 407 -7.4 -4.7 -11.5 0.6VH1 19 -14.0 -13.1 -16.2 0.6Total 10585 -6.8 -4.8 -9.6 0.4

3 PAX is shown in these two network comparison tables, but is excluded from all other tables.4 Networks with fewer than 10 telecasts meeting the 0.3 P2+ rating cutoff are not included in this table.




Syndication (24 Hour Total Day) 5

20th Television 428 -3.0 -2.3 -3.5 1.1Buena Vista TV 151 -5.9 -4.1 -8.6 1.1BVTAS/Carsey-Werner 17 -1.5 -1.1 1.5 0.7CF Entertainment 13 -5.8 -2.8 -13.3 0.7Kingworld Media Sales 316 -0.2 0.2 -0.6 1.8MGM-NBC Media Sales 55 -1.9 -1.4 -3.9 0.7NBC Universal 137 -3.4 -2.8 -5.2 0.9Paramount 352 -1.8 -1.4 -1.6 1.1Paramount/Heritage 22 -4.5 -4.6 -3.7 0.8Sony Pictures TV 235 -3.0 -2.5 -3.4 1.0Tribune Entert. Co. 121 -2.6 -2.2 -3.4 0.6Tribune/NBCU 20 -4.9 -4.7 -4.5 0.5Universal TV 98 -5.3 -3.0 -7.7 1.0Victor King/Cbn 23 -9.5 -9.6 -4.2 0.3Warner Bros. TV 526 -2.1 -1.6 -2.4 1.2Total 2543 -2.3 -1.6 -3.0 1.1

5 Syndicators with fewer than 10 telecasts meeting the 0.3 P2+ rating cutoff are not included in this table.


Prime by Day of Week

In prime, differences in audience retention are very small across days of the week.



Broadcast Prime

Monday 121 -6.6 -5.5 -8.2 3.2Tuesday 135 -6.1 -5.1 -7.7 2.8Wednesday 109 -5.8 -4.9 -6.9 3.1Thursday 104 -5.8 -5.3 -6.6 3.9Friday 103 -6.0 -5.3 -6.9 1.8Saturday 40 -6.7 -5.9 -7.5 2.3Sunday 114 -6.4 -5.2 -7.7 3.0TOTAL 726 -6.1 -5.2 -7.4 2.9

Cable Prime

Monday 462 -10.6 -7.7 -14.5 0.5Tuesday 479 -9.0 -6.8 -12.3 0.5Wednesday 430 -8.6 -6.6 -10.5 0.5Thursday 398 -8.9 -6.7 -11.9 0.4Friday 373 -8.1 -6.3 -10.7 0.4Saturday 356 -8.5 -6.6 -10.4 0.5Sunday 492 -10.0 -7.1 -13.5 0.5TOTAL 2990 -9.2 -6.9 -12.2 0.5


Genre by Type and Daypart

% Drop in Audience from Pgm Avgto National Commercial

A W M A 18-49 A 18-49

Daypart Genre Telecasts6 18-49 25-54 18-34 Range Rating

Broadcast

MORN News 262 -20.6 -20.8 -20.0 -77.6 +5.6 1.0

DAY Audience Participation 74 +0.2 +0.4 -0.3 -8.6 +8.0 1.1Child Day - Animation 106 -5.1 -2.7 -8.1 -23.4 +11.8 0.3Conversations, Colloquies 37 -3.6 -2.7 -3.1 -6.6 -0.4 0.9Daytime Drama 339 -1.7 -1.3 -1.8 -7.6 +4.6 1.1TOTAL 556 -1.7 -1.2 -3.0 -23.4 +11.8 0.9

EF News 144 -2.8 -1.9 -4.5 -12.2 +33.7 1.6TOTAL 146 -2.6 -1.8 -3.9 -12.2 +33.7 1.7

PR Comedy Variety 25 -5.6 -4.8 -6.7 -17.9 +2.0 1.4Evening Animation 19 -5.3 -4.0 -6.7 -12.0 +5.2 3.4Feature Film 24 -7.2 -6.0 -8.8 -12.8 -0.7 1.8General Documentary 34 -6.6 -5.9 -7.5 -12.2 -0.5 2.2General Drama 223 -6.5 -5.6 -7.9 -12.5 +0.3 3.2General Variety 31 -7.0 -6.0 -8.5 -17.3 -1.6 4.9News Documentary 45 -8.0 -6.6 -9.1 -18.7 -0.5 2.3Official Police 8 -7.0 -4.2 -8.2 -8.5 -5.0 3.1Participation Variety 69 -6.6 -5.9 -7.8 -15.5 -0.0 4.0Science Fiction 9 -5.5 -2.3 -6.6 -8.8 -3.3 1.2Situation Comedy 224 -4.9 -4.0 -6.2 -14.8 +6.3 2.5Sports Event 11 -6.0 -4.0 -6.4 -9.7 -0.7 3.5TOTAL 726 -6.1 -5.2 -7.4 -18.7 +6.3 2.9

LF Comedy Variety 8 -7.4 -6.7 -7.4 -16.5 -1.8 1.9General Variety 311 -11.6 -11.6 -11.7 -38.9 +3.3 1.1News 42 -7.1 -6.6 -5.8 -16.2 +5.1 1.1TOTAL 367 -10.2 -10.4 -10.0 -38.9 +23.6 1.1

6 Daypart-Genre groups with 5 or fewer telecasts are excluded from this table



A W M A 18-49 A 18-49


SSDAY Child - Live 36 -2.2 -2.1 -5.4 -11.1 +18.3 0.6Child Day - Animation 176 -2.0 -0.4 -4.7 -27.2 +29.3 0.5Child Multi-Weekly 48 -1.4 -0.6 -1.6 -9.5 +13.8 0.6Conversations, Colloquies 14 -9.5 -10.5 -1.3 -16.9 -1.7 0.8Feature Film 8 -4.2 -2.3 -7.5 -12.3 -0.8 0.5General Drama 12 -4.1 -4.1 -5.9 -9.8 +1.6 0.6News 54 -9.0 -8.9 -6.9 -39.3 +13.1 0.8Situation Comedy 7 -6.6 -5.6 -7.3 -13.4 -0.4 0.7Sports Commentary 19 -3.7 -0.2 -6.9 -12.7 +7.3 0.8Sports Event 26 -6.2 -5.4 -6.9 -19.0 +6.3 1.5TOTAL 400 -4.3 -3.6 -5.2 -39.3 +29.3 0.6

TOTAL, BROADCAST 2457 -6.6 -6.0 -7.5 -77.6 +33.7 1.5

Cable

MORN Child Multi-Weekly 436 -2.3 -1.6 -2.4 -34.1 +29.7 0.3General Drama 33 -4.2 -4.8 -4.7 -14.7 +0.2 0.5News 115 -3.2 -2.5 -2.0 -22.3 +9.7 0.2Situation Comedy 7 -4.4 -4.1 -6.1 -5.8 -3.2 0.4TOTAL 599 -2.6 -2.1 -2.5 -34.1 +29.7 0.3

DAY Adventure 11 -8.7 -3.1 -9.5 -12.9 -2.0 0.3Child Multi-Weekly 991 -3.4 -2.8 -5.3 -57.4 +24.2 0.3Feature Film 64 -6.1 -3.9 -10.9 -18.0 +3.6 0.4General Documentary 9 -4.4 -5.8 -4.6 -12.2 -0.4 0.3General Drama 319 -3.9 -3.2 -5.9 -14.4 +6.3 0.4Instruction, Advice 6 -5.1 -4.1 -6.3 -8.6 -2.3 0.3News 205 -4.1 -3.8 -5.2 -41.8 +11.7 0.2Popular Music 50 -13.0 -12.7 -12.6 -29.0 -3.8 0.4Science Fiction 13 -6.4 -4.9 -10.3 -11.2 -2.0 0.4Situation Comedy 146 -3.5 -1.3 -4.7 -18.4 +8.9 0.4Sports Commentary 29 -8.1 -7.6 -8.0 -23.7 +3.7 0.5Sports Event 6 -10.6 +1.8 -12.2 -20.6 -0.6 0.4Suspense/Mystery 25 -2.7 -2.8 -2.3 -13.1 +17.6 0.1Western Drama 6 -9.7 -4.9 -7.7 -19.8 -4.0 0.2TOTAL 1882 -4.2 -3.1 -6.2 -57.4 +24.2 0.3




A W M A 18-49 A 18-49


EF Adventure 15 -5.2 -2.9 -8.8 -15.5 +0.5 0.3Child Multi-Weekly 394 -2.9 -1.1 -6.7 -28.0 +28.1 0.3Comedy Variety 7 -8.0 -5.2 -9.3 -19.0 +2.1 0.4Evening Animation 11 -7.1 -6.1 -6.8 -15.5 -0.9 0.4Feature Film 90 -7.6 -5.6 -11.1 -17.4 +3.2 0.5General Documentary 89 -7.3 -4.9 -10.2 -18.8 +2.6 0.3General Drama 250 -6.4 -4.6 -9.4 -21.0 +3.4 0.5Instruction, Advice 60 -6.6 -5.0 -7.3 -25.3 +4.2 0.3News 102 -3.9 -3.3 -6.5 -22.1 +8.9 0.3Popular Music 68 -13.4 -11.8 -15.5 -30.0 -0.5 0.4Private Detective 15 -0.8 -0.4 -7.4 -10.4 +10.1 0.2Science Fiction 26 -7.3 -3.9 -10.1 -16.3 -0.3 0.4Situation Comedy 211 -3.3 -1.3 -5.2 -15.7 +10.6 0.6Sports Commentary 30 -7.2 -6.4 -8.6 -15.0 +7.7 0.6Sports Event 41 -11.3 -8.4 -11.8 -24.7 -2.2 0.5Western Drama 11 -1.7 +0.8 +2.6 -6.7 +4.2 0.2TOTAL 1421 -5.4 -3.5 -8.3 -30.0 +28.1 0.4

PR Child Multi-Weekly 423 -5.9 -4.8 -7.3 -51.5 +31.6 0.3Comedy Variety 82 -10.0 -7.9 -10.4 -31.8 +10.7 0.7Conversations, Colloquies 37 -14.1 -10.7 -16.7 -43.6 +7.4 0.2Evening Animation 80 -5.1 -3.9 -5.4 -18.7 +26.5 0.6Feature Film 351 -9.3 -6.6 -13.4 -29.7 +4.1 0.5Format Varies 11 -7.8 -3.1 -10.5 -16.8 -0.4 0.5General Documentary 366 -10.9 -8.0 -14.4 -36.4 +3.3 0.4General Drama 345 -6.9 -5.2 -9.7 -27.2 +6.2 0.6General Variety 83 -8.4 -6.7 -11.9 -31.3 +10.5 0.5Instruction, Advice 204 -6.7 -5.5 -8.0 -23.6 +9.4 0.3News 168 -9.2 -8.3 -11.0 -29.0 +2.0 0.3Popular Music 235 -17.0 -15.0 -20.4 -39.0 +2.1 0.7Private Detective 9 -2.8 -1.3 -9.0 -8.0 +4.8 0.3Science Fiction 45 -8.7 -5.3 -9.0 -18.7 +0.1 0.4Situation Comedy 404 -7.3 -5.5 -11.8 -31.2 +14.5 0.5Sports Commentary 24 -10.8 -9.4 -13.3 -37.4 +6.6 0.8Sports Event 108 -10.3 -8.7 -11.5 -57.9 +7.9 1.0Western Drama 10 -3.3 -1.5 -2.5 -21.4 +13.5 0.2TOTAL 2990 -9.2 -6.9 -12.2 -57.9 +31.6 0.5




A W M A 18-49 A 18-49


LF Child Multi-Weekly 53 -6.6 -3.7 -9.9 -28.3 +8.2 0.3Comedy Variety 86 -8.5 -5.8 -10.4 -21.0 +3.9 0.5Conversations, Colloquies 18 -28.8 -27.8 -32.1 -46.9 -8.8 0.5Evening Animation 377 -10.5 -7.9 -11.5 -64.1 +9.3 0.5Feature Film 128 -8.6 -6.1 -10.7 -27.4 +2.1 0.5Format Varies 7 -4.4 -4.4 -2.2 -10.5 -0.9 0.5General Documentary 133 -7.9 -5.5 -10.4 -24.0 +5.2 0.4General Drama 215 -6.3 -4.1 -10.5 -27.3 +5.4 0.5General Variety 8 -11.4 -7.0 -12.6 -21.6 -2.3 0.5Instruction, Advice 39 -7.8 -7.3 -10.1 -19.0 +2.2 0.4News 48 -8.8 -7.7 -8.0 -34.2 +3.0 0.3Popular Music 114 -16.3 -15.2 -19.2 -33.2 +8.9 0.5Private Detective 14 -2.0 -0.3 -5.8 -9.9 +2.4 0.4Science Fiction 18 -3.9 -3.1 -6.1 -12.4 +1.6 0.4Situation Comedy 781 -4.8 -4.0 -6.8 -34.0 +10.1 0.6Sports Commentary 65 -15.2 -17.2 -14.1 -33.5 +3.8 0.7TOTAL 2114 -7.8 -5.3 -11.1 -64.1 +10.1 0.5

SSDAY Child Multi-Weekly 629 -2.1 -1.7 -3.3 -34.3 +25.9 0.4Comedy Variety 16 -5.5 -3.6 -8.4 -18.8 +12.3 0.4Feature Film 352 -5.8 -3.8 -8.7 -25.2 +8.7 0.5General Documentary 47 -6.5 -4.1 -9.4 -17.3 +1.5 0.3General Drama 13 -6.1 -4.8 -7.0 -13.0 -0.7 0.5Instruction, Advice 108 -2.8 -1.9 -7.5 -16.7 +11.2 0.3News 101 -4.9 -3.9 -6.5 -22.8 +13.8 0.2Popular Music 151 -11.2 -9.4 -13.6 -28.5 +5.8 0.5Situation Comedy 48 -2.1 -1.4 -4.6 -13.1 +11.9 0.3Sports Commentary 50 -4.9 -4.2 -5.5 -15.3 +4.8 0.7Sports Event 25 -6.7 -4.1 -7.3 -18.7 +6.8 0.5Western Drama 30 -2.6 -1.5 -4.0 -9.6 +9.8 0.2TOTAL 1579 -4.7 -3.2 -6.8 -34.3 +25.9 0.4

TOTAL, CABLE 10585 -6.8 -4.8 -9.6 -64.1 +31.6 0.4




A W M A 18-49 A 18-49


Syndication

Adventure 8 -0.9 +0.1 +0.1 -5.5 +6.9 0.5Child Day - Animation 44 -1.7 -2.0 -1.4 -13.4 +10.2 0.5Conversations, Colloquies 718 -3.3 -2.5 -4.7 -21.2 +15.2 0.9Devotional 23 -9.5 -9.6 -4.2 -23.6 +1.7 0.3Feature Film 19 -1.1 +0.3 -1.3 -10.2 +4.3 1.2General Documentary 8 -1.8 -2.6 -0.6 -4.7 +1.4 0.6General Drama 414 -1.2 -0.7 -1.2 -17.8 +34.5 1.1General Variety 9 +0.0 +0.8 -0.6 -4.9 +4.6 0.7Instruction, Advice 58 -1.9 -2.1 -1.3 -14.2 +10.3 0.4News 270 -3.0 -2.0 -4.6 -18.4 +14.9 1.1Participation Variety 23 -5.8 -5.2 -5.7 -12.1 +5.1 1.1Quiz Give Away 199 +0.4 +0.5 -0.2 -15.9 +13.3 1.4Science Fiction 24 -2.4 -1.5 -4.5 -10.3 +7.7 0.9Situation Comedy 689 -2.8 -2.0 -3.1 -24.2 +17.1 1.5\Sports Event 8 +0.3 -0.9 +0.4 -4.5 +4.3 1.9Sports News 8 +3.8 +8.9 -3.4 -1.7 +10.8 0.8Unclassified 13 -5.8 -2.8 -13.3 -14.6 +5.7 0.7TOTAL 2543 -2.3 -1.6 -3.0 -24.2 +34.5 1.1



Variation in Audience Drops/Gains: Adults 18-49

-50% -30% -20% -10% -5% -5% 0% +5% +10% +20%

or to to to to to to to to or TotalDaypart Source more -50% -30% -20% -10% 0% +5% +10% +20% more T/C11

All Telecasts

43 129 494 2757 4247 5243 1970 514 167 21 155850% 1% 3% 18% 27% 34% 13% 3% 1% 0% 100%

Broadcast

MORN ABC 2 49 22 2 75CBS 37 3 22 12 1 75NBC 1 12 42 47 10 112Total 39 49 23 14 45 69 22 1 262

DAY ABC 5 118 27 150CBS 11 151 61 1 224NBC 4 70 2 76WB 2 19 29 37 15 2 2 106Total 2 19 49 376 105 3 2 556

EF ABC 9 37 1 1 48CBS 1 7 31 4 43NBC 8 39 7 54Total 1 24 107 12 1 1 146

PR ABC 17 85 45 147CBS 12 76 49 1 138FOX 17 63 30 4 3 117NBC 7 78 40 2 127UPN 10 35 37 4 86WB 18 58 33 2 111Total 81 395 234 13 3 726

LF ABC 4 21 36 13 4 1 79CBS 7 34 32 3 2 2 2 82FOX 2 5 1 8NBC 2 39 54 84 19 198Total 7 40 94 98 100 25 2 1 367

SSDAY ABC 6 11 53 23 1 1 95CBS 4 4 12 14 24 18 9 1 1 87FOX 5 17 17 16 4 2 61NBC 6 4 10 34 10 5 2 71UPN 1 3 4 8WB 1 16 21 26 11 2 1 78Total 4 11 44 76 158 78 21 7 1 400

Broadcast Total 39 60 76 253 687 1044 255 30 10 3 24572% 2% 3% 10% 28% 42% 10% 1% 0% 0% 100%

11 Daypart-Source groups with 5 or fewer telecasts are excluded from listing, but included in totals


-50% -30% -20% -10% -5% -5% 0% +5% +10% +20%

or to to to to to to to to or TotalDaypart Source more -50% -30% -20% -10% 0% +5% +10% +20% more T/C

Cable

MORN FOXNC 1 11 31 44 23 5 115NICK 2 6 22 43 91 69 32 6 2 273TBSC 2 5 7TNT 1 13 19 3 36TOON 3 19 37 50 36 12 5 1 163Total 2 10 53 127 213 131 49 11 3 599

DAY AEN 5 11 14 8 2 40ESPN 1 9 11 9 1 31FAM 16 41 25 4 86FOXNC 1 20 68 69 28 10 2 198LIF 6 18 36 8 68MTV 5 30 13 3 51NICK 1 6 26 78 116 159 133 57 40 6 622TBSC 1 15 34 12 8 70TNT 6 82 162 16 1 267TOON 2 13 70 61 118 67 26 10 2 369TVL 2 3 1 6USA 1 12 22 9 44Total 1 9 47 258 473 651 279 102 54 8 1882

EF AEN 13 21 14 5 53AMC 2 3 2 1 8BET 2 1 3 6CMDY 3 2 2 7COURT 1 13 7 6 1 28DISC 5 7 4 16ESPN 1 15 23 5 1 1 46ESPN2 2 3 2 1 8FAM 10 34 28 9 2 83FOOD 1 12 5 6 3 27FOXNC 1 14 28 43 13 3 102FX 14 21 9 4 48HALL 1 6 8 6 1 1 23HGTV 6 6 8 6 26HIST 2 3 1 2 8LIF 2 17 28 5 52MTV 14 30 12 5 61NICK 1 19 33 64 50 23 10 1 201SCIFI 10 15 16 41SPIKE 9 15 10 2 36TBSC 8 53 74 27 6 1 169TLC 2 5 7TNT 1 10 40 33 1 85TOON 7 41 47 57 27 5 1 185TVL 2 4 6 3 15USA 1 22 25 25 4 77Total 30 273 430 463 170 41 13 1 1421


-50% -30% -20% -10% -5% -5% 0% +5% +10% +20%


PR AEN 4 8 37 44 16 2 111AMC 1 8 23 13 4 1 1 51APL 5 6 2 3 16BET 6 9 2 1 18CMDY 4 49 41 27 9 4 1 1 136CNN 2 12 15 11 5 2 47COURT 4 22 43 65 18 2 154DISC 5 44 21 12 3 85ESPN 2 3 25 23 6 1 1 61ESPN2 1 1 4 1 2 9FAM 2 30 36 21 12 2 1 104FOOD 1 6 7 4 1 1 20FOXNC 10 53 44 29 1 137FX 2 23 20 7 2 54HALL 2 2 9 24 8 1 46HGTV 3 29 41 56 9 5 143HIST 11 65 30 19 1 126LIF 10 40 36 3 89MTV 13 63 117 18 2 3 216NAN 1 8 53 61 44 17 4 1 189NICK 2 3 19 30 26 15 2 2 1 100SCIFI 31 46 13 1 91SPIKE 2 23 33 10 2 1 71TBSC 2 59 59 24 1 145TLC 2 31 19 16 68TNT 1 28 47 23 99TOON 1 6 17 61 87 71 40 19 11 2 315TRAV 3 1 2 6TVL 1 25 41 34 21 9 4 135USA 1 1 36 58 30 2 128VH1 3 5 8Total 2 33 179 943 943 635 177 52 22 4 2990

LF AEN 2 17 33 23 1 76CMDY 5 43 35 27 2 112COURT 4 18 46 12 1 81DISC 3 11 13 5 1 33ENT 7 9 2 1 19ESPN 1 15 22 14 8 2 62FAM 2 1 4 7FOXNC 1 1 20 11 7 40FX 4 5 4 5 1 19HGTV 1 7 3 11HIST 2 7 10 4 1 24LIF 15 46 42 4 107MTV 4 27 64 13 1 2 1 112NAN 3 10 90 157 335 97 10 1 703


-50% -30% -20% -10% -5% -5% 0% +5% +10% +20%


SCIFI 5 6 1 12SPIKE 1 3 6 3 1 14TBSC 3 24 24 13 64TLC 5 13 4 2 24TNT 1 14 28 33 2 1 79TOON 1 6 35 117 94 76 30 10 369TVL 8 7 11 4 30USA 24 44 37 3 108Total 1 23 120 510 585 687 163 24 1 2114

SSDAY AEN 3 2 1 6AMC 1 9 18 9 2 2 2 43CMDY 5 2 6 1 14ESPN 1 12 19 22 10 64FAM 1 8 22 4 35FOOD 4 7 17 9 3 1 41FOXNC 3 13 33 36 13 2 1 101FX 8 11 4 23HALL 2 3 9 5 1 20HGTV 3 22 7 4 36HIST 5 7 13 3 28LIF 2 16 30 8 1 57MTV 11 74 47 13 2 147NICK 1 26 71 145 89 26 8 1 367SCIFI 5 17 10 2 34SPIKE 7 1 8TBSC 17 25 32 5 1 80TLC 3 8 19 2 32TNT 16 32 20 5 73TOON 2 7 37 47 81 50 21 10 255TVL 1 10 19 5 4 1 40USA 9 25 10 5 49VH1 5 2 7WGNC 1 2 2 1 6Total 2 24 259 426 546 230 68 23 1 1579

Cable Total 4 69 410 2296 2984 3195 1150 336 124 17 105850% 1% 4% 22% 28% 30% 11% 3% 1% 0% 100%


-50% -30% -20% -10% -5% -5% 0% +5% +10% +20%

or to to to to to to to to or TotalSyndicator more -50% -30% -20% -10% 0% +5% +10% +20% more T/C

Syndication

20th Television 42 92 156 104 25 9 428Buena Vista TV 4 26 50 49 22 151BVTAS/Carsey-Werner 1 2 3 5 2 2 2 17CF Entertainment 3 4 3 2 1 13Kingworld Media Sales 20 60 105 79 45 7 316MGM-NBC Media Sales 1 12 27 12 2 1 55NBC Universal 7 41 56 28 5 137Paramount 1 16 72 153 84 22 4 352Paramount/Heritage 3 8 7 4 22Sony Pictures TV 25 46 95 49 14 5 1 235Tribune Entert Co. 6 25 60 24 4 2 121Tribune/NBCU 2 6 9 3 20Universal TV 19 33 29 16 1 98Victor King/CBN 2 9 5 6 1 23Warner Bros TV 25 115 232 125 26 3 526

Syndication Total 0 0 8 208 576 1004 565 148 33 1 25430% 0% 0% 8% 23% 39% 22% 6% 1% 0% 100%


Does Program Selection on Commercial AudienceProduce Real Improvements?

This experiment was designed to give a first cut at a very important question: if we select programs bychoosing those that seem to retain commercial audiences based on a set of their telecasts, how well doesthis actually improve commercial audience for a fresh telecast?

Here is the approach taken:

1) To make this manageable, the analysis was restricted to Broadcast Prime, Cable Prime and Syndication, withseparate analyses for the April data and the Nov/Dec data. This yields six separate analyses.

2) Analysis was done for targets of Women 25-54 and Men 18-34.

3) Study was further restricted to those programs that had 3 to 10 telecasts in the data period.

4) The goal is to develop lists of programs using some basic rankings on a set of telecasts, and then to evaluatehow well these selections perform when applied to a fresh set of telecasts from these same programs. To dothis, one telecast was randomly selected from each set of telecasts for a program title. Rankings were developedusing the remaining programs, with choices evaluated using those telecasts that were held out.

5) The first cut is to identify those programs that tended to skew towards each target, to simulate selection of aset of programs that would be identified for possible use. For the Women 25-54, a “skew factor” was computedas a simple ratio of W25-54 program audience to A18+ program audience. For Men 18-34, the factor was Men18-34 program audience divided by A18+ program audience. While this is rough at best, inspection of theprogram lists that were produced did indeed make sense as well suited to the targets. For each target separately,programs were ranked by this “skew factor”, and the top one-third in each of the six analysis groups wereextracted.

6) Now that a list of programs had been developed for each target in each segment, program audience and totalcommercial audience (for each demo) are extracted for each of the hold-out telecasts. These values are thensummed across these telecasts, simulating the result of one spot placed in each (see following tables).


One Spot Per Telecast,Among Programs Skewing to WOMEN 25-54

Program Com’lPeriod Type GRPs GRPs NCA/PA %DropApril Broadcast Prime 126.0 120.4 0.956 -4.4April Cable Prime 25.9 24.3 0.938 -6.2April Syndication 17.6 17.2 0.979 -2.1Nov/Dec Broadcast Prime 112.3 105.8 0.942 -5.8Nov/Dec Cable Prime 21.5 19.7 0.918 -8.2Nov/Dec Syndication 16.2 15.9 0.980 -2.0

One Spot Per Telecast,Among Programs Skewing to MEN 18-34

Program Com’lPeriod Type GRPs GRPs NCA/PA %DropApril Broadcast Prime 76.7 71.9 0.937 -6.3April Cable Prime 34.1 30.8 0.902 -9.8April Syndication 23.6 22.3 0.943 -5.7Nov/Dec Broadcast Prime 83.9 77.7 0.926 -7.4Nov/Dec Cable Prime 32.5 28.4 0.874 -12.6Nov/Dec Syndication 12.4 12.0 0.966 -3.4

Here’s a sample of how to read this: Looking at Women 25-54 April data for Broadcast Prime, one spot in onetelecast of each program that skews towards women totals 126.0 conventional GRPs, or 120.4 commercialGRPs.

7) The last column in the above tables shows national commercial GRPs divided by total program GRPs. Forexample, in the first line of the first table, 120.4 divided by 126.0 yields a ratio of 0.956. This is equivalent to adrop of 4.4% (100 - 95.6).

8) Starting with these programs that have the desired demographic skew, our next step is to further trim theprogram this to only use those programs that have a track record of having “good” records in preservingaudience at commercial time. Again, that one “hold out” telecast is excluded in our evaluation. We use theremaining telecasts of each set within a program name to develop a simulated historical record for eachprogram. For each of our six groupings, we create a NCA/PA ratio for each program, and rank them (separatelyfor each target). Finally, we will now consider only those programs that score in the top half on theirpreservation of commercial audiences (NCA/PA ratios).

9) In each of the six groupings, for the two targets separately, we now have “chosen” programs that not only aresuperior on demographic skew, but which also preserve audience at commercial time better than others. Goingback to our “fresh” holdout telecasts (fresh in the sense of not having been used in making the selections),here’s what we find:


One Spot Per Telecast,Among Programs Skewing to WOMEN 25-54 AND With “Good” NCA/PA History

Program Com’lPeriod Type GRPs GRPs NCA/PA %Drop IMPROVEMENTApril Broadcast Prime 55.2 53.0 0.960 -4.0 0.4%April Cable Prime 10.6 10.0 0.950 -5.0 1.2%April Syndication 9.9 9.9 1.007 +0.7 2.8%Nov/Dec Broadcast Prime 59.7 57.1 0.956 -4.4 1.4%Nov/Dec Cable Prime 8.6 8.2 0.959 -4.1 4.4%Nov/Dec Syndication 7.5 7.4 0.983 -1.7 0.2%

One Spot Per Telecast,Among Programs Skewing to MEN 18-34 AND With “Good” NCA/PA History

Program Com’lPeriod Type GRPs GRPs NCA/PA %Drop IMPROVEMENTApril Broadcast Prime 34.7 32.9 0.949 -5.1 1.3%April Cable Prime 14.9 13.4 0.904 -9.6 0.3%April Syndication 10.3 9.9 0.955 -4.5 1.3%Nov/Dec Broadcast Prime 45.3 42.3 0.934 -6.6 0.9%Nov/Dec Cable Prime 12.3 11.2 0.917 -8.3 5.0%Nov/Dec Syndication 7.6 7.3 0.970 -3.0 0.4%

10) The final column in this table (“IMPROVEMENT”) reports the degree to which NCA/PA on a fresh set oftelecasts has been improved by making use of the NCA/PA measure developed from a track record based on theother telecasts.

Example: To illustrate, let’s focus on the first line (April Broadcast Prime) of the Women 25-54 tables fromthe previous page and this page. First let’s recap from the previous page: When we developed a list ofprograms by choosing those that were in the top third in skewing towards this target, we found that the NCA/PAratio was 0.956, a 4.4% drop. We could say from this that when we plan for 100 GRPs using program ratings,the actual GRPs at commercial time would total 95.6. Now contrast that with what happens on the table above,using a program list that also considers the programs track records in preserving commercial audience. Now theNCA/PA ratio is 0.960. If we use this “improved” program list, a purchase of 100 GRPs based on programratings yields 96 GRPs based on commercial ratings. How much of an improvement? Comparing the computedratios, using the “improved” program list increased this ratio value from 0.956 to 0.960, an increase of 0.4%.

Conclusions

In all 12 situations we examined (3 program groups X 2 months X 2 targets), using the track record ofcommercial audiences to select programs yielded very modest improvements of a couple of percent or so. Tosay the least, these improvement scores are disappointing. Of course, we must note that this was based on somerough measures, and some arbitrary cutoffs on targeting. But we do have six separate groups reporting the sameweak improvements. Further and more rigorous analysis would seem to be indicated, to resolve whether thethorny issue of variability by telecast.


60” vs 30” Resolution:Are Network Rankings Affected?

Nielsen provided limited broadcast-only data from its standard tabulation using 60” resolution for comparison tothe large 30” resolution special tabulations. The 60” data only had a commercial audience value that mixedcommercial and promo minutes, so we are labelling this value as CPA/PA (commercial and promo audiencedivided by program audience).

The table below summarizes the ratio for both datasets, for the Adults 18-49 demo, averaging broadcastnetworks in prime time.

P18-49 Prime Telecasts

Special tab, Normal,CA/PA CPA/PA

Net 30” resolution 60” resolutionABC 0.918 0.945CBS 0.939 0.949FOX 0.937 0.935NBC 0.943 0.952UPN 0.942 0.949WB 0.933 0.948

Notice that all of the networks have similar results, with the exception of FOX in the conventional 60” data, andABC in the special 30” data. The plot on the left illustrates how the other four networks cluster together,showing similar behaviors in both sets of data, while ABC and FOX stand out. (The overall correlation is a verylow 0.23.) If we treat FOX as an outlier and hold it out of the calculation, the fit improves, with a correlation of0.91 (on right).


60” vs 30” Resolution:Are Program Rankings Affected?

A similar analysis was done for all listed programs in broadcast prime. After removing PAX programs from the comparison (since PAX was not included in to 60” data supplied), there were 174 programson both data sets.

Broadcast Prime ProgramsNumber of

distinct programs60” conventional data (which did not have PAX) 17430” special data 20530” special data, removing PAX 177Matching programs with valid data 173

Those 173 programs had an average CPA/PA of 0.947 on the 60” data, and an average CA/PA of 0.937 on the30” data.

The correlation between the scores for the matched programs on the two sets of data is 0.823 and thisrelationship is statistically significant (N=173, T = 18.948).

We conclude that since the CA/PA ratios from both sources (60” and 30”resolution) are correlated, programrankings would not be drastically upset.


Date post:	09-Aug-2020
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Syndication: The Leader In Audience Retention · is “Off the Charts” ... Mark Kaline of Ford...

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