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Syria and Chemical Weapons: Building a World Free of WMD
Paul F. Walker, Ph.D.Director, Security & Sustainability
Green Cross InternationalWashington DC, USA
George Mason UniversityFairfax, VirginiaOctober 16, 2013
Alleged CW Use in Syria July 23, 2012 – Syria
confirms CW December 23 – Homs
attack, 7 killed March 19, 2013 –
Aleppo & Damascus March 24 – Adra April 13 – Aleppo April 29 – Saraqeb
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Syria’s CWC Accession August 21, 2013 – Large
scale CW attack in Ghouta region. 1,400+ killed, including 400 children.
September 14 – Syria accedes to CWC
October 14 – CWC enters into force for Syria as 190th State Party
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World War I
Over 1 million injured by gas attacks, and some 90,000 killed
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Chemical Weapons Threats Iran-Iraq War Iraq attack on Halabja
in 1988 1991 Gulf War 1995 Tokyo subway
attack Ongoing terrorist
threats of WMD Syria 2012-2013
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8 Declared CW Stockpiles Russia 40,000 metric tons USA 28,600 metric tons India 1,000+ metric tons (est)
South Korea 1,000+ metric tons (est)
Libya 26+ metric tons Albania 16 metric tons Iraq na Syria 1,000 metric tons (est)
TOTAL 72,500 +/- metric tons
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Declared U.S. CW Stockpile: 31,495 US tons(9 stockpile sites in 8 states and Johnston Atoll)
Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal FacilityTooele, Utah (44%)
Newport Chemical DepotNewport, Indiana (4%)
Pueblo Chemical DepotPueblo, Colorado (8%)
Pine Bluff Chemical Agent Disposal FacilityPine Bluff, Arkansas (12%)
Umatilla Chemical Agent Disposal FacilityHermiston, Oregon (12%)
Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal FacilityTooele, Utah (44%)
Aberdeen Chemical Agent Disposal FacilityEdgewood, Maryland (5%)Newport Chemical Agent
Disposal FacilityNewport, Indiana (4%)
Blue Grass Army Depot Richmond, Kentucky (2%)
Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal FacilityAnniston, Alabama (7%)
Pine Bluff Chemical Agent Disposal FacilityPine Bluff, Arkansas (12%)
Pueblo Chemical DepotPueblo, Colorado (8%)
Johnston Atoll Chemical Agent Disposal SystemSouth Pacific (6%)
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Declared R.F. CW Stockpile: 40,000 tons(7 stockpiles in 5 Oblasts and the Udmurt Republic)
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Shchuch’ye Chemical Weapons
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Shchuch’ye Stockpile
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Chemical Weapons Convention Entered into force in
1997 190 States Parties CW stockpiles
destroyed by 2012 Inspection of
commercial industry Five-year RevCons
2003, 2008, & 2013
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CW Destruction in US 1990 – present 25,650 MT destroyed
(90%) 7 stockpiles closed $25 billion+ spent to
date 10 more years to go 2 facilities under
construction
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CW Destruction in Russia 2002 – present 30,400 MT destroyed
(76%) 2 stockpiles
neutralized $7+ billion spent to
date 3-6+ years to go
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Other CWD Progress Albania – 16 MT destroyed
(100%) 2007 South Korea – 1,000+ MT
destroyed (100%) 2008 India – 1,000+ MT
destroyed (100%) 2009 Libya – 23 +/- MT destroyed
(88%) (excl. Sched. 2) Iraq – Declared 2009 Syria – Declared 2013
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Russian CW Demil (est. Sept 2013)
Gorny neutralized Dec02-Dec05 – 1,143 MT Kambarka neutralized Dec05-Apr09 – 6,349 MT Maradikovsky neutralized 6,200 MT (90%) since
Sept 06 (6,890 MT total) Leonidovka neutralized 6,200 MT (90%) since 2008
(6,885 MT total) Shchuch’ye neutralized 4,350 MT (80%) since
March 2009 (5,456 MT total) Pochep neutralized 4,500 MT (60%) since
November 2010 (7,498 MT) Kizner to open late 2013 (5,745 MT)
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US CW Demil (Feb 2012)
Johnston Atoll – 1990-2000, 100% destroyed Tooele – 1996-2012, 100% destroyed Anniston – 2003-2011, 100% destroyed Aberdeen – 2003-2005, 100% destroyed Umatilla – 2004-2011, 100% destroyed Pine Bluff – 2005-2011, 100% destroyed Newport – 2005-2008, 100% neutralized Pueblo – 2014-2017, 0% (2,520 tons) Blue Grass – 2018-2021, 0% (523 tons)
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Challenge #1 – Cost US cost first estimated
at $2B Now approaching $40B RF cost first estimated
at $3-4B Now estimated at $10B+ Not including non-
stockpile & sea-dumped
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Challenge #2 – Technology High temperature
incineration or low temperature neutralization
Management of effluent toxic wastes
Impacts on public health & environment
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Challenge #3 – Emergency Preparedness
Most communities feel ill-prepared
Gas masks, plastic & duct tape distributed for “shelter in place”
Early warning radios and sirens lacking
Transportation for evacuation
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Challenge #4 – Community Investment and Involvement
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Shchuch’ye, Kurgan Oblast
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Challenge #5 – Transparency
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Green Cross Outreach Office Proactive outreach to
local & regional constituencies
Reactive response to all inquiries
Facilitation of stakeholder involvement
Empowerment of local communities
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Community Outreach
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Challenge #6 – CWC Deadlines
CWC stockpile destruction deadlines: April 2000 – 1% of stockpiles (3 yrs after EIF) April 2002 – 20% of stockpiles (5 yrs) April 2004 – 45% of stockpiles (7 yrs) April 2007 – 100% of stockpiles (10 yrs) April 2012 – 5-year extension (15 yrs)
No possessor State Party has met all deadlines
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CWC Deadlines (cont.) United States
Met 1% (2000) and 20% (2002) deadlines Met 3-yr extended 45% deadline (2007) Received 5-yr extension for 100% deadline to 2012
Russian Federation Met 3-yr extended 1% and 5-yr extended 20%
deadlines Received 5+-yr extension for 45% deadline to
December 2009 Received 5-yr extension for 100% deadline to 2012
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CWC Deadlines (cont.) Albania – Did not request 100% extended
deadline and missed April 2007 by 2 months India – Met 100% deadline extension to
April 2009 (2 yr extension) South Korea – Met 100% deadline extension
to December 2008 (20-mo ext) Libya – Received 100% deadline extensions
to Dec. 2010, Dec. 2011, Apr. 2012, and Dec. 2016
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Challenge #7 – Congressional Deadline
Congress has mandated December 2017 as final deadline for completing CWD
Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO): “It is no secret that DOD is going to miss the 2012 treaty deadline for weapons destruction at Pueblo. That's what happens when you drag your feet and fail to put adequate resources behind a program… This is absurd, especially with DOD's own admission that with higher funding levels they could complete destruction at Pueblo a full five years earlier than that.” (25 Feb 08)
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What’s to be Done? Emphasis must be placed on the critical
importance of State Parties to fully fund and implement their ongoing chemical weapons destruction programs – US – $400-500M+/yr for construction US Cooperative Threat Reduction – $50M+/yr
for CWD RF – $1B+/yr for CW destruction G-8 Global Partnership – $100M+/yr
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What’s to be Done?
Don’t underestimate public concerns and political power – be transparent and involve stakeholders – preclude legal suits
Recognize inherent tension between cost, schedule, transparency, & safety – protection of public health & environment
Improve US-RF relations and move beyond recent G-8 Global Partnership differences
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What’s to be Done? Promote full CWC
universality Six countries
Angola Egypt Israel Myanmar (Burma) North Korea South Sudan
The Challenge of Syria
OPCW to inspect and inventory Syrian declaration
All weapons, agents, production & lab facilities destroyed
Full security & safety guaranteed for inspectors & workers
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The Challenge of Syria What does Syria’s CW
stockpile consist of? What destruction
technologies are best? Can the chemicals,
agents, and weapons be moved?
How much will this all cost?
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Buried Chemical Weapons
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Spring Valley, Washington DC
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Sea-Dumped Chemical Weapons
UN Resolution on SDCW
Notes the importance of raising public awareness of the environmental effects…
Invites Member States…to cooperate and voluntarily share relevant information…
Invites the Secretary-General to seek the views of Member States and relevant regional and international organizations at 68th UN General Assembly in 2013…
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WMDFZ in the Middle East
Syria’s CWC accession provides incentive for Israel & Egypt to join
Also encourages all to join BWC
And begin to address nuclear weapons in the Mideast – Israel & Iran
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