Date post: | 18-Jul-2015 |
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The significant problems we face today cannot be solved at the same level of thinking at which they were created.
- Albert Einstein
Why?
Chaotic
Complex
Complicated
SimpleHuman History
Technological advance and growing population in a finite space have increased the complexity of human interactive structures.
Systems are greater than the sum of their parts.
System properties and behaviors emerge from the combination of its constituent parts
Reductionism is not sufficient. Our systems are dynamic and driven by nonlinear effects that are not easily understood.
Helpful Theoretical Models
Queuing Theory – Erlang 1910Lean Thinking – Deming 1940System Dynamics – Forrester 1950Automata Theory – 1940 Ulam and von NeumannNetwork Theory - 1970Complexity Theory - 1970Learning Organization – 1990 Senge
A model is a simplification of reality intended to promote understanding.
System Dynamics
A system is an entity which maintains its existence through the mutual interaction of its parts.
- Gene Bellinger
Orderly processes in creating human judgment and intuition lead people to wrong decisions when faced with complex and highly interacting systems.
- Jay Forrester
Feedback Mechanisms
Reinforcing feedback Balancing feedback
+
Credit CardBalance
Credit CardInterest
+
+
BodyTemp
Sweat
-
3 examples from www.beyondconnectingthedots.com
Feedback Delay
Time
De
sire
d S
tate
Long delay causes wider swings
Short delay converges sooner
Agile/Lean achieve smoother flow and reduced risk by shortening
the delay time for feedback
Lean Thinking
95% of variation in the performance of a system (organization) is caused by the system itself and only 5% is caused by the people.
- W. Edwards Demming
Misconception easily turns into common sense.- Taiichi Ohno
Push & Pull Systems
Push systems overwhelm capacity, creating turbulence, rework, waste and delay
Pull systems have a steady flow that provides predictability
♫
Push
Push PullMake a plan Have a queue of work and a goal
Track % completion of plan Measure throughput and work done
Buffer plan for contingencies Small, frequent tasks to manage variety
Plan decides what to do next People decide what to do next
Long feedback delay Continuous short feedback loops
Demand exceeds capacity Demand limited to capacity
Fixed scope and time Fixed WIP
Forecast based on estimates Forecast based on data
?
Single Piece Flow
Do This
Don’t Do This
Goodhart’s Law
The moment a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be useful as a measure.
Story Points/Sprint
Complexity Theory
Complicated
Complex
Click pictures to view examples.
• Many different parts.
• Can take it apart and reassemble it.
• If one part fails, it all fails.
• Many similar parts acting independently within social rules.
• Aggregate behavior cannot be predicted from individual part behaviors.
• Still “works” if a part is removed.
Sense
InputWhat our senses tell us
ProbeHow we use our senses to get new information
Mental ModelsWhat sense we make of new information
Actions, ExperimentsWhat makes sense to do next
Sense-Making
Tools- anecdote.com- getreframer.com- sensemaker-suite.com
We make decisions based on our patterns and mental models,not on information or theory.
Learning Organizations
1.Systems Thinking2.Personal Mastery3.Mental Models4.Building Shared Vision5.Team Learning
Working as a Team
Organizations where people continually expand their capacity to create the results they truly desire, where new and expansive patterns of thinking are nurtured, where collective aspiration is set free and where people are continually learning how to learn together.
- Peter Senge The Fifth Discipline, 1990
Urgent Not Urgent
Imp
ort
an
t
I• Crises
• Pressing
Problems
• Deadline Driven
Projects,
Meetings, etc.
II• Preparations
• Learning
• Kaizen Events
• Relationship Building
• True Recreation
No
t Im
po
rtan
t III• Interruptions
• Some phone calls
• Some email
• Someone else’s
emergency
IV• Trivia
• Busy work
• Time wasters
• “Escape” activities
When do we get time to improve?
If we don’t spend any time sharpening the saw, we will have to work harder and harder to get the same results.
- Steven Covey, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, 2004
By intentionally creating downtime, or ‘slack’, management will find a much-needed opportunity to build a ‘capacity to change’ into an otherwise strained enterprise that will help companies respond more successfully to constantly evolving conditions.
- Tom DeMarco, Slack, 2002
Learning Levels
Single Loop: tweak the parameters
Double Loop: experiment with the process
Triple Loop: learn how to learn
RetrospectivesCommunities of PracticeBook ClubBrown Bag SeminarsShadowingStory TellingKnowledge ManagementBrainstormingSkills Exchange
Team Learning Tools
ReferencesBooks:• Thinking in Systems : A Primer – Meadows• The Fifth Discipline and its Fieldbook – Senge• Business Dynamics - Sterman• The Principles of Product Development Flow: Reinertsen• The Systems Bible – Gall• 10 Steps to a Learning Organization – Kline and Saunders• Learning in Action – Garvin• Systems Thinking Playbook – Sweeny and Meadows
Websites- www.beyondconnectingthedots.com/ - Bellinger- www.cognitive-edge.com – Snowden- www.systemdynamics.org
Presenter
Roger Brown
• Agile Coach
• Scrum Alliance
• M.S. System Dynamics, Dartmouth College 1977
• Contact Email: [email protected]
Twitter: rwbrown
Blog: www.agileCoachJournal.com
LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/rogerwbrown