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Systems Dynamics and Systems Dynamics and EquilibriumEquilibrium
Dr. Fred Mugambi MwirigiDr. Fred Mugambi Mwirigi
JKUATJKUAT
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What is a System?What is a System?
A group of interacting, interrelated, and A group of interacting, interrelated, and interdependent elements forming a interdependent elements forming a complex wholecomplex whole
A configuration of parts connected and A configuration of parts connected and joined together by a web of relationshipsjoined together by a web of relationships
The whole is different from, and greater The whole is different from, and greater than, the sum of its partsthan, the sum of its parts
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Parts of an Elephant
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Systems ThinkingSystems Thinking
A way of understanding reality that A way of understanding reality that emphasizes the relationships among a emphasizes the relationships among a system’s parts, rather than the parts system’s parts, rather than the parts themselves.themselves.
Concerned about interrelationships Concerned about interrelationships among parts and their relationship to a among parts and their relationship to a functioning wholefunctioning whole
Sees underlying patterns and structuresSees underlying patterns and structures
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Foundations of Systems TheoryFoundations of Systems TheoryCybernetics: system feedback, Cybernetics: system feedback,
information; differences (that make a information; differences (that make a difference); human – machine analogy; difference); human – machine analogy; inclusion of the observer and the inclusion of the observer and the observed in the systemobserved in the system
General systems theory: open systems; General systems theory: open systems; system integrity; nested system hierarchy, system integrity; nested system hierarchy, boundaries, webs, emergence (sum boundaries, webs, emergence (sum greater than parts)greater than parts)
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Systems TheoriesSystems Theories
Soft and critical systems: human systems Soft and critical systems: human systems - multiple perspectives, power issues, - multiple perspectives, power issues, intractable problems without simple intractable problems without simple solutionssolutions
Systems dynamics: systems have Systems dynamics: systems have reinforcing and balancing feedback loops, reinforcing and balancing feedback loops, circularity, system archetypes, mental circularity, system archetypes, mental models, unintended consequencesmodels, unintended consequences
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More Systems TheoriesMore Systems Theories
Complexity theory: complex adaptive Complexity theory: complex adaptive systems; semi-independent, interacting systems; semi-independent, interacting agents; self-organization; emergence; agents; self-organization; emergence; nonlinearity; co-evolution; past is nonlinearity; co-evolution; past is irreversible; future is unpredictableirreversible; future is unpredictable
Learning systems: the way that people Learning systems: the way that people learn and the systems in which they learnlearn and the systems in which they learn
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System BoundariesSystem Boundaries
Shows what is inside and outside of the Shows what is inside and outside of the systemsystemGeographical (location) Geographical (location) Organization (department, unit or function)Organization (department, unit or function)Physical (money, material, information)Physical (money, material, information)Conceptual (goals, mission, purpose, rules)Conceptual (goals, mission, purpose, rules) Intangibles (perceptions, awareness, models)Intangibles (perceptions, awareness, models)Natural or man-madeNatural or man-made
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System Relationships System Relationships (Interconnections)(Interconnections)
Connections and exchanges among Connections and exchanges among system parts, parts and the whole, and system parts, parts and the whole, and the whole and its environmentthe whole and its environmentFlows of informationFlows of informationFlows of fundingFlows of fundingClient referralsClient referralsCollaborative partnershipsCollaborative partnershipsFamily, community, and social networksFamily, community, and social networks
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System PerspectivesSystem Perspectives
Stakeholders’ worldviews and purposesStakeholders’ worldviews and purposesSystem agents who have different System agents who have different
perspectives may pursue different perspectives may pursue different purposes within a given situationpurposes within a given situation
Patterns of (mis)alignment of purposes Patterns of (mis)alignment of purposes and processes within and across system and processes within and across system levelslevels
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System Change System Change
System differences generate creative System differences generate creative tension or energy within a system tension or energy within a system
Positive or negative, energy provides Positive or negative, energy provides potential for system changepotential for system change
System change: shifts in patterns System change: shifts in patterns (similarities and differences) of system (similarities and differences) of system relationships, boundaries, focus, timing, relationships, boundaries, focus, timing, events and behaviors over time and space events and behaviors over time and space
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System DynamicsSystem Dynamics
Random (unorganized)Random (unorganized)Organized (simple or complicated)Organized (simple or complicated)Adaptive (organic, self-organizing)Adaptive (organic, self-organizing)All three system dynamics can be present All three system dynamics can be present
in a complex situationin a complex situation
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Random System AttributesRandom System Attributes
Random activity – no patternRandom activity – no patternUnconnected collection of partsUnconnected collection of partsNo cause-effect relationshipsNo cause-effect relationshipsTurbulence – no stability or equilibriumTurbulence – no stability or equilibriumAnswers are unknowable Answers are unknowable No purpose or direction – people react No purpose or direction – people react
blindly in a war zone or natural disasterblindly in a war zone or natural disaster
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Random System: Hurricane Katrina
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Organized (Simple) System Organized (Simple) System AttributesAttributes
Stable, static patternStable, static pattern Parts tightly connected machines Parts tightly connected machines Predictable cause-effect relationshipsPredictable cause-effect relationships System can be reduced to parts and System can be reduced to parts and
processes and replicatedprocesses and replicated Directive leadership, designed changeDirective leadership, designed change Answers are knowable, with recipes or Answers are knowable, with recipes or
prescriptions for actionprescriptions for action
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Single Organized System: Ring-Around the Rosie
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Simple Organized System:Riding a Bicycle
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Organized (Complicated) System Organized (Complicated) System AttributesAttributes
Dynamic patterns of feedback loops with Dynamic patterns of feedback loops with many interrelated parts within and across many interrelated parts within and across subsystem levelssubsystem levels
Recursive, non-linear cause-effect Recursive, non-linear cause-effect relationships; reinforcing and balancing relationships; reinforcing and balancing feedback loops maintain equilibriumfeedback loops maintain equilibrium
Expert analysis can identify causal loops, Expert analysis can identify causal loops, deep structural causes to actionsdeep structural causes to actions
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Adaptive (Complex) System Adaptive (Complex) System AttributesAttributes
Dynamical patterns – parts adapting, co-Dynamical patterns – parts adapting, co-evolving with each other and environmentevolving with each other and environment
Parts are massively entangled and Parts are massively entangled and interdependent; nested webs, networksinterdependent; nested webs, networks
Parts self-organize, learn, and changeParts self-organize, learn, and changeEquilibrium in flux, sensitive to initial Equilibrium in flux, sensitive to initial
conditions; system change emerges conditions; system change emerges through interactions among parts through interactions among parts
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Ecological View of an Elephant
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Complex InterdependenciesComplex Interdependencies
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Alignment of Context, Program, Alignment of Context, Program, and Evaluation Dynamics and Evaluation Dynamics
Context can be random, organized, Context can be random, organized, adaptive, or combination of dynamics adaptive, or combination of dynamics
Program design uses random, organized Program design uses random, organized (entity-based), or adaptive (paradigm-(entity-based), or adaptive (paradigm-based) or a combination of dynamicsbased) or a combination of dynamics
Evaluation design (content and process) Evaluation design (content and process) can be entity-focused (organized), can be entity-focused (organized), paradigm-focused (adaptive) or a paradigm-focused (adaptive) or a combination of bothcombination of both
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Three Dynamics of a Social System and its Context
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Match of Evaluation Designs to Dynamics Match of Evaluation Designs to Dynamics of Social Systems and Their Contextof Social Systems and Their Context
Exploratory Design
Predictive Design
Initi
ative
Ren
ewal
Des
ign
Organic Design
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Complex Adaptive Systems and Complex Adaptive Systems and Adaptive (Self-organizing) Adaptive (Self-organizing)
DynamicsDynamics1.1. Self-organizing/adaptive/organicSelf-organizing/adaptive/organic
2.2. Sensitivity to initial conditionsSensitivity to initial conditions
3.3. EmergenceEmergence
4.4. Macro patternMacro pattern
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Complex Adaptive Systems and Adaptive Complex Adaptive Systems and Adaptive (Self-organizing) Dynamics (cont.)(Self-organizing) Dynamics (cont.)
5.5. FeedbackFeedback
6.6. Co-evolutionCo-evolution
7.7. Pattern formation and points of influencePattern formation and points of influence
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Implications for Evaluation and ActionImplications for Evaluation and Action
1.1. Small differences can create large Small differences can create large effects.effects.
2.2. The past influences but does not predict The past influences but does not predict the future.the future.
3.3. Many points of influence exist.Many points of influence exist.
4.4. Boundaries, differences, and Boundaries, differences, and relationships are levers of influence relationships are levers of influence toward a purpose.toward a purpose.
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Implications for Evaluation and ActionImplications for Evaluation and Action
5.5. Simple rules underlie patterns.Simple rules underlie patterns.
6.6. Pattern-based feedback and actions are Pattern-based feedback and actions are iterative.iterative.
7.7. Tensions are not resolved.Tensions are not resolved.
8.8. Patterns are outcomes.Patterns are outcomes.
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Four Stages of EvaluationFour Stages of Evaluation
Design Evaluation
Shape Practice Collect Data
Make Meaning from Data
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End End
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