Systems Modeling Systems Modeling and Analysisand Analysis
Edward S. RubinDepartment of Engineering and Public Policy
Department of Mechanical EngineeringCarnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Presentation to the
NREL–CMU MeetingPittsburgh, Pennsylvania
June 25, 2009
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
A Hierarchy of Models for R&D A Hierarchy of Models for R&D Planning and Policy AnalysisPlanning and Policy Analysis
Options for a single facility
(tech feasibility, efficiency,
emissions, cost)
Multi-facility(or multi-sector)optimization or
simulation (dynamic)
Integrated assessment
models(including measures
of impacts)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Areas of Modeling ResearchAreas of Modeling Research
• Performance, emissions and costs of fossil fuel power plants and environmental control options
Criteria air pollutants and consumptive water useCarbon dioxide capture, transport and sequestrationCoal-to-liquids processes and polygeneration systems
• Energy storage options for solar-thermal power plants
• Environmental technology innovation and learning
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
The Research TeamThe Research Team
• Mike Berkenpas
• Chris Frey (NCSU)
• Karen Kietze
• Hari Mantripragada
• Aaron Marks
• Sean McCoy
• Andrew Place
• Ed Rubin
• Sharon Wagner
• Peter Versteeg
• Sonia Yeh (UCD)
• Haibo Zhai
Power plant performance, Power plant performance, emissions and costemissions and cost
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
The IECM Project: The IECM Project: Power Plant Performance, Emissions & CostsPower Plant Performance, Emissions & Costs
• A desktop/laptop computer model developed for DOE/NETL; free and publicly available at: www.iecm-online.com
• Provides systematic estimates of performance, emissions, costs and uncertainties for preliminary design of:
PC, IGCC and NGCC plantsAll flue/fuel gas treatment systemsCO2 capture and storage options (pre- and post-combustion, oxy-combustion; transport, storage)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Modeling ApproachModeling Approach
• Systems Analysis Approach
• Process Performance Models
• Engineering Economic Models
• Advanced Software CapabilitiesProbabilistic analysis capabilityUser-friendly graphical interfaceEasy to add or update models
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
IECM Software PackageIECM Software Package
PowerPowerPlantPlant
ModelsModels
GraphicalGraphicalUserUser
InterfaceInterface
Plant andPlant andFuelFuel
DatabasesDatabases
Plant & ProcessPlant & ProcessPerformancePerformance
-- EfficiencyEfficiency-- Resource useResource use
EnvironmentalEnvironmentalEmissionsEmissions
-- Air, water, landAir, water, land
Plant & ProcessPlant & ProcessCosts Costs -- CapitalCapital
-- O&MO&M-- COECOE
Fuel PropertiesFuel Properties-- Heating ValueHeating Value-- CompositionComposition-- Delivered CostDelivered Cost
Plant DesignPlant Design-- Conversion ProcessConversion Process-- Emission ControlsEmission Controls-- Solid Waste MgmtSolid Waste Mgmt-- Chemical InputsChemical Inputs
Cost FactorsCost Factors-- O&M CostsO&M Costs-- Capital CostsCapital Costs-- Financial FactorsFinancial Factors
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
IECM Technologies for PC PlantsIECM Technologies for PC Plants(excluding CO(excluding CO22 capture, transport and sequestration)capture, transport and sequestration)
Particulate Removal• Cold-side ESP• Fabric filter
- Reverse Air- Pulse Jet
SO2 Removal• Wet limestone
- Conventional- Forced oxidation- Additives
• Wet lime• Lime spray dryer• Combined SO2/NOx systems
Solids Management• Ash pond• Landfill• Stacking• Co-mixing• Byproducts
Boiler Types• Subcritical• Supercritical• Ultra-supercritical
Furnace Firing Types• Tangential• Wall• Cyclone
Furnace NOx Controls• LNB• SNCR• SNCR + LNB• Gas reburn
NOx Removal• Hot-side SCR• Combined SO2/NOx systems
Mercury Removal• Carbon/sorbent injection
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Models Account forModels Account forMultiMulti--Pollutant InteractionsPollutant Interactions
CriteriaAir
Pollutants
HazardousAir
Pollutants
PMSO2
NOx
HgHClH2SO4
GreenhouseGas
EmissionsCO2
CH4
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Some Recent IECM UsersSome Recent IECM Users
Terra Humana Clean Tech. Eng'r Ltd.Ontario Power Gen.Inst. of Applied Energy (IAE)ENSR, Inc.Chinese Academy of Sci.Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)NTPC LimitedInstitut TeknologiBandung (ITB)Energy Res. Centre of the NetherlandsChalmers University
World BankTampa Electric Co.NTNU/StatoilINERCOEnergy & Env. StrategiesCarnegie Mellon UniversityWolk Integrated Technical ServicesSyncrudeNRDC Natural Res. DefenceCouncilIndustries LimitedEnergy & Env. Res. Corp.Canadian Clean Power CoalitionWisconsin Public Service Corp.Superior Adsorbents, Inc.Nova Scotia Power, Inc.Indian Inst. of Tech.Energy & Env. Res. Center (EERC)Canada Natural ResourcesWisconsin Dept. of Natural Res.Steven Coons ConsultingNorwegian University of Sci. and Tech.Imperial CollegeEnergi E2Canada Env.WheelabratorAir Poll. Control Inc.StatoilNorth Carolina State UniversityIllinois Inst. of Tech.Energetics, Inc.BP SunburyWashington PowerSouthern Co. Services, Inc.Norsk Hydro ASA, Oil & Energy Res.Illinois Dept. of Natural ResourcesAmerenUEBP Power Ltd.W.L. Gore & Associates, Inc.Southern Co. Gen.Norsk Hydro ASAIllinois Clean Coal Inst.EnelBP Int'l LimitedVattenfallUtveckling ABSNC LavalinNorman Plaks ConsultingIFPEmera Inc.BPVattenfallABSintef Energy Res.Niro A/SIEA Greenhouse Gas R&DElectricite de France (EDF)Boiler Systems Eng'r, E.S.O.URS CorpSierra Pacific Power Co.NIPSCOIEA Env. Projects, Ltd.Electric Power Res. Inst. (EPRI)BOC GasesUniversity of WaterlooSiemensNiksa Energy AssociatesIEA Clean Coal CentreElectric Power Gen. Assoc.Black & Veatch Corp.University of TwenteShell Global Solutions Int'lNicholson & Hall Corp.Holland Board of Public WorksElectric Energy, Inc. (EEI)Bechtel Power Corp.University of TorontoShell Chemical Co.New Energy & Ind. Tech. Org. (NEDO)Hatch AcresEdison Mission EnergyBattelle NorthwestUniversity of TexasSFA Pacific, Inc.NESCAUMHarvard UniversityE.ON EnergieAGBattelleUniversity of StuttgartScientechNeill and GunterHamon Res. Cottrell, Inc.E. On UKBasin Electric Power Coop.University of South WalesSci. Applications Int'l. Corp. (SAIC)National Power Plc.H&W Mgmt. Sci. ConsultantsDynegy Midwest Gen.Balcke-Durr GmbHUniversity of Salvador UNIFACSSavvy Eng'r, LLCNational Energy Tech. Lab. (NETL)GyeongsangNational UniversityDoosan Babcock Energy Ltd.ATCO PowerUniversity of ReginaSaskPowerNanyangTechnological UniversityGreat River EnergyDont Inc.Argonne National Lab.University of QueenslandSargent & LundyMinnkotaPower Coop., Inc.GM R&D CenterDONG Energy Gen.ARCADISUniversity of PittsburghSalt River Project (SRP)Midwest Gen. EME, LLCGenerators for Clean Air (GCA)DMCR/Dutch Ministry of Env. (VROM)Apogee Scientific, Inc.University of North CarolinaSalt River ProjectMidAmerican Energy Co.General Electric Co.Detroit Edison Co.APATUniversity of NewcastleSAICMichigan State UniversityGE Infra, EnergyDept. of Env. Services - NH (DES)Ankara UniversityUniversity of New OrleansRWE Power AGMassachusetts Inst. of Tech. (MIT)GE Global Res.Dept. of Env. Quality - VA (DEQ)American Transmission Co.University of Manchester Inst. Sci. Tech.RMB Consulting & Res., Inc.MacQuarieUniversityGassnovaDept. of Env. Protection - PA (DEP)American Electric PowerUniversity of MaineRes. Triangle Inst.Lower Colorado River AuthorityGas Tech. Inst. (GTI)Dept. of Env. Protection - NJ (DEP)Alstom Power Plant Lab.University of LecceRes. Inst. of Innovative Tech. EarthLincoln Electric SystemFuel Tech, Inc.Dept. of Env. and Natural Res. - NCAlstom Power Inc.University of EdinburghReaction Eng'r Int'lLehigh UniversityFriedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co.Dept. of Energy, Instituto de CarboquimicaALSTOM Power CentralesUniversity of CaliforniaReaction Eng'r Inst.LAB SAFoster Wheeler EnergiaOyDept. of Energy (DOE)Alstom Power Boiler GmbHUniversity of CalgaryPrinceton UniversityKorea Western Power Co.Fossil Energy Res. Corp.CSEnergyAlstom (Switzerland)University of BathPraxair Inc.Korea Inst. of Energy Res.Fortum Power and Heat OyCroll-ReynoldsAlliant EnergyUniversity of AberdeenPrairie Adaptation Res. Coll.Korea Electric Power Corp.FordCQ, Inc.Allegheny Energy SupplyTXU ElectricPPL Gen., LLCKinectricsFluor Daniel Canada, Inc.COORETECALCOA Power Gen., Inc.Twenty-First Strategies, LLCPowergenPower Tech.Kennecott EnergyFluent, Inc.Coop. Res. Centre for Greenhouse GasAlberta Res. CouncilTU DresdenPowerGenKEMA Nederland B.V.FLS Miljo A/SConsumers EnergyAlberta Env.TransAltaPIRA Energy GroupKansas City Power & Light Co.Florida Power & Light Co.CONSOL Energy, Inc.Alberta Economic Dev.Toshiba Corp.Pinnacle West EnergyKanazawa UniversityFirstEnergy Corp.Columbia UniversityAkzo Nobel Functional ChemTNO Env., Energy and Process InnovPembina Inst.Japan Petroleum Exploration Co.First Energy Corp.Cogentrix Energy, Inc.Airborne Clean EnergyTMommerConsultantsPacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)Jack R. McDonald, Inc.Env. Protection Agency (EPA)Coaltek LLC / Jupiter Oxygen Corp.Air Products plcTexas Municipal Power AgencyPacific Corp.Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy IndustryEnv. Protection Agency - IL (EPA)Coal in Sustainable Dev., Tech TransferAir LiquideTexas A&M UniversityPace Global Energy ServicesIntermountain Power Service Corp.Env. DefenseClean Energy Systems Inc.AEP-SCR Eng'rTetra Tech EM Inc.OREC/Buckeye Power, Inc.Inst. of Energy - EC/JRCEnv. & Renewable Energy SystemsCinergy Power Gen. Services, LLCABB Lummus Global, Inc.
Terra Humana Clean Tech. Eng'r Ltd.Ontario Power Gen.Inst. of Applied Energy (IAE)ENSR, Inc.Chinese Academy of Sci.Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)NTPC LimitedInstitut TeknologiBandung (ITB)Energy Res. Centre of the NetherlandsChalmers University
World BankTampa Electric Co.NTNU/StatoilINERCOEnergy & Env. StrategiesCarnegie Mellon UniversityWolk Integrated Technical ServicesSyncrudeNRDC Natural Res. DefenceCouncilIndustries LimitedEnergy & Env. Res. Corp.Canadian Clean Power CoalitionWisconsin Public Service Corp.Superior Adsorbents, Inc.Nova Scotia Power, Inc.Indian Inst. of Tech.Energy & Env. Res. Center (EERC)Canada Natural ResourcesWisconsin Dept. of Natural Res.Steven Coons ConsultingNorwegian University of Sci. and Tech.Imperial CollegeEnergi E2Canada Env.WheelabratorAir Poll. Control Inc.StatoilNorth Carolina State UniversityIllinois Inst. of Tech.Energetics, Inc.BP SunburyWashington PowerSouthern Co. Services, Inc.Norsk Hydro ASA, Oil & Energy Res.Illinois Dept. of Natural ResourcesAmerenUEBP Power Ltd.W.L. Gore & Associates, Inc.Southern Co. Gen.Norsk Hydro ASAIllinois Clean Coal Inst.EnelBP Int'l LimitedVattenfallUtveckling ABSNC LavalinNorman Plaks ConsultingIFPEmera Inc.BPVattenfallABSintef Energy Res.Niro A/SIEA Greenhouse Gas R&DElectricite de France (EDF)Boiler Systems Eng'r, E.S.O.URS CorpSierra Pacific Power Co.NIPSCOIEA Env. Projects, Ltd.Electric Power Res. Inst. (EPRI)BOC GasesUniversity of WaterlooSiemensNiksa Energy AssociatesIEA Clean Coal CentreElectric Power Gen. Assoc.Black & Veatch Corp.University of TwenteShell Global Solutions Int'lNicholson & Hall Corp.Holland Board of Public WorksElectric Energy, Inc. (EEI)Bechtel Power Corp.University of TorontoShell Chemical Co.New Energy & Ind. Tech. Org. (NEDO)Hatch AcresEdison Mission EnergyBattelle NorthwestUniversity of TexasSFA Pacific, Inc.NESCAUMHarvard UniversityE.ON EnergieAGBattelleUniversity of StuttgartScientechNeill and GunterHamon Res. Cottrell, Inc.E. On UKBasin Electric Power Coop.University of South WalesSci. Applications Int'l. Corp. (SAIC)National Power Plc.H&W Mgmt. Sci. ConsultantsDynegy Midwest Gen.Balcke-Durr GmbHUniversity of Salvador UNIFACSSavvy Eng'r, LLCNational Energy Tech. Lab. (NETL)GyeongsangNational UniversityDoosan Babcock Energy Ltd.ATCO PowerUniversity of ReginaSaskPowerNanyangTechnological UniversityGreat River EnergyDont Inc.Argonne National Lab.University of QueenslandSargent & LundyMinnkotaPower Coop., Inc.GM R&D CenterDONG Energy Gen.ARCADISUniversity of PittsburghSalt River Project (SRP)Midwest Gen. EME, LLCGenerators for Clean Air (GCA)DMCR/Dutch Ministry of Env. (VROM)Apogee Scientific, Inc.University of North CarolinaSalt River ProjectMidAmerican Energy Co.General Electric Co.Detroit Edison Co.APATUniversity of NewcastleSAICMichigan State UniversityGE Infra, EnergyDept. of Env. Services - NH (DES)Ankara UniversityUniversity of New OrleansRWE Power AGMassachusetts Inst. of Tech. (MIT)GE Global Res.Dept. of Env. Quality - VA (DEQ)American Transmission Co.University of Manchester Inst. Sci. Tech.RMB Consulting & Res., Inc.MacQuarieUniversityGassnovaDept. of Env. Protection - PA (DEP)American Electric PowerUniversity of MaineRes. Triangle Inst.Lower Colorado River AuthorityGas Tech. Inst. (GTI)Dept. of Env. Protection - NJ (DEP)Alstom Power Plant Lab.University of LecceRes. Inst. of Innovative Tech. EarthLincoln Electric SystemFuel Tech, Inc.Dept. of Env. and Natural Res. - NCAlstom Power Inc.University of EdinburghReaction Eng'r Int'lLehigh UniversityFriedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co.Dept. of Energy, Instituto de CarboquimicaALSTOM Power CentralesUniversity of CaliforniaReaction Eng'r Inst.LAB SAFoster Wheeler EnergiaOyDept. of Energy (DOE)Alstom Power Boiler GmbHUniversity of CalgaryPrinceton UniversityKorea Western Power Co.Fossil Energy Res. Corp.CSEnergyAlstom (Switzerland)University of BathPraxair Inc.Korea Inst. of Energy Res.Fortum Power and Heat OyCroll-ReynoldsAlliant EnergyUniversity of AberdeenPrairie Adaptation Res. Coll.Korea Electric Power Corp.FordCQ, Inc.Allegheny Energy SupplyTXU ElectricPPL Gen., LLCKinectricsFluor Daniel Canada, Inc.COORETECALCOA Power Gen., Inc.Twenty-First Strategies, LLCPowergenPower Tech.Kennecott EnergyFluent, Inc.Coop. Res. Centre for Greenhouse GasAlberta Res. CouncilTU DresdenPowerGenKEMA Nederland B.V.FLS Miljo A/SConsumers EnergyAlberta Env.TransAltaPIRA Energy GroupKansas City Power & Light Co.Florida Power & Light Co.CONSOL Energy, Inc.Alberta Economic Dev.Toshiba Corp.Pinnacle West EnergyKanazawa UniversityFirstEnergy Corp.Columbia UniversityAkzo Nobel Functional ChemTNO Env., Energy and Process InnovPembina Inst.Japan Petroleum Exploration Co.First Energy Corp.Cogentrix Energy, Inc.Airborne Clean EnergyTMommerConsultantsPacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)Jack R. McDonald, Inc.Env. Protection Agency (EPA)Coaltek LLC / Jupiter Oxygen Corp.Air Products plcTexas Municipal Power AgencyPacific Corp.Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy IndustryEnv. Protection Agency - IL (EPA)Coal in Sustainable Dev., Tech TransferAir LiquideTexas A&M UniversityPace Global Energy ServicesIntermountain Power Service Corp.Env. DefenseClean Energy Systems Inc.AEP-SCR Eng'rTetra Tech EM Inc.OREC/Buckeye Power, Inc.Inst. of Energy - EC/JRCEnv. & Renewable Energy SystemsCinergy Power Gen. Services, LLCABB Lummus Global, Inc.
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Profile of Recent IECM UsersProfile of Recent IECM UsersType of Organization
Geographic Region
Utility28%
Company44%
Education17%
Government11%
Asia4%
South America<1% Australia
2%
North America71%
Europe23%
~ 500 organizations
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Positive Feedback from Industry, Positive Feedback from Industry, Academia & GovernmentAcademia & Government
We've recently started using your IECM website to guide us in developing preliminary cost estimates for our operations. Refinery carbon capture has its own issues, but the information on the IECM website is extremely helpful. I just wanted to send along a note of thanks to you and Carnegie-Mellon for making this model available and the technical support behind it. We appreciate your work very much. - George Schuette, Hydrogen - Carbon Dioxide Group, ConocoPhillips Technology Center
I'll be co-teaching a course … on carbon capture and sequestration. We're really eager to use your IECM software package throughout our course this fall. I'm hoping to use examples from both industry and research …It would be wonderful to get together in person sometime to share ideas and to share with you our experience for using your program directly in our new course.- Jen Wilcox, Stanford University, Department of Energy Resources Engineering
“reviewers felt this contribution was …the ‘highlight’ of this year’s review meeting.”- Final Report Carbon Sequestration Project Review Meeting, September 26-29, 2005. Meeting Summary and Recommendations, National Energy Technology Lab
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
IECM User InterfaceIECM User Interface
Select Plant Type
PC Plant with PostPC Plant with Post--Comb. CCSComb. CCS
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
NGCC Plant with CCSNGCC Plant with CCS
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
IGCC Plant with CCSIGCC Plant with CCS
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
GE-quench O2-blown
Specify Fuel Parameters
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Specify Technology Parameters
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Set Financial Parameters
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Get Results for the Overall Plant
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Plant Mass Flows
Total Plant Costs
Get Results for Specific Plant Components
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Example of Probabilistic ResultsC
umul
ativ
e Pr
obab
ility
CO2 Mitigation Cost (2004 $/tonne CO2 avoided)
1.00.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
DETERMINISTIC
Uncertainty or Variability in:- CO2 capture efficiency- steam-electric penalty- compressor efficiency- lean sorbent loading- process facilities cost- CO2 storage cost- variable operating costs- gross plant heat rate- plant capacity factor- fixed charge factor
Probabilistic Resultsfor a PC Plant with
Amine-Based Capture
Cum
ulat
ive
Prob
abili
ty
CO2 Mitigation Cost (2004 $/tonne CO2 avoided)
1.00.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
DETERMINISTICDETERMINISTIC
Uncertainty or Variability in:- CO2 capture efficiency- steam-electric penalty- compressor efficiency- lean sorbent loading- process facilities cost- CO2 storage cost- variable operating costs- gross plant heat rate- plant capacity factor- fixed charge factor
Probabilistic Resultsfor a PC Plant with
Amine-Based Capture
Uncertainty or Variability in:- CO2 capture efficiency- steam-electric penalty- compressor efficiency- lean sorbent loading- process facilities cost- CO2 storage cost- variable operating costs- gross plant heat rate- plant capacity factor- fixed charge factor
Uncertainty or Variability in:- CO2 capture efficiency- steam-electric penalty- compressor efficiency- lean sorbent loading- process facilities cost- CO2 storage cost- variable operating costs- gross plant heat rate- plant capacity factor- fixed charge factor
Probabilistic Resultsfor a PC Plant with
Amine-Based Capture
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Model ApplicationsModel Applications
• Process design
• Technology evaluation
• Cost estimation
• R&D management
• Risk analysis
• Environmental compliance
• Marketing studies
• Strategic planning
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Recent IECM Applications:Recent IECM Applications:Potential Cost Reductions from R&DPotential Cost Reductions from R&D
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
57
31
52
29
34
49
PlantDerate
SameOutput
CheaperBoiler
FutureAmines
HeatIntegr.
AmineCapex
Cost of COCost of CO22 Avoided ($/tonne COAvoided ($/tonne CO22))
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
57
31
52
29
34
49
PlantDerate
SameOutput
CheaperBoiler
FutureAmines
HeatIntegr.
AmineCapex
PlantDerate
SameOutput
CheaperBoiler
FutureAmines
HeatIntegr.
AmineCapex
Cost of COCost of CO22 Avoided ($/tonne COAvoided ($/tonne CO22))
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Recent IECM Applications:Recent IECM Applications:Coal Quality Impacts on Technology ChoiceCoal Quality Impacts on Technology Choice
(2005 $/MWh; dashed lines based on constant $/GJ for all coals)(2005 $/MWh; dashed lines based on constant $/GJ for all coals)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Pittsburgh #8 Illinois #6 Wyoming PRB ND Lignite
Coal Type
Cos
t of E
lect
rici
ty ($
/MW
h)
IGCC-CCS PC-CCS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Pittsburgh #8 Illinois #6 Wyoming PRB ND Lignite
Coal Type
Cos
t of E
lect
rici
ty ($
/MW
h)
IGCC-CCS PC-CCS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Pittsburgh #8 Illinois #6 Wyoming PRB ND Lignite
Coal Type
Cos
t of E
lect
rici
ty ($
/MW
h)
IGCC-CCS PC-CCS
All plants ~500 MW(net); 75% CF; Aquifer storage;IGCC based on GE quench; PC=supercritical
Thermal storage options Thermal storage options for solar power plantsfor solar power plants
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Research QuestionsResearch Questions
• What are the costs and benefits of adding a thermal storage system to a parabolic trough concentrated solar power plant?
FinancialEnvironmental
• How do life cycle impact with thermal storage compare to a PT system without storage?
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Sharon Wagner and Plant Manager Sharon Wagner and Plant Manager at SEGS at SEGS -- Kramer JunctionKramer Junction
Solar Field
Hourly DNR TES System
Power Cycle
Hourly electricity output
Thermal energy Therm
al en
ergy
Thermal energySolar Field
Hourly DNR TES System
Power Cycle
Hourly electricity output
Thermal energy Therm
al en
ergy
Thermal energy
PT-CSP Model structure
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
PTPT--CSP PerformanceCSP Performance--Cost ModelCost Model
Builds on basics of NREL Solar Advisor Model (SAM) for solar field and power cycle performanceMore detailed representation of thermal storage:
• Incorporates effect of storage heat exchanger area on plant performance and cost (indirect storage)
• Calculates solar field area increase based on increased storage capacity
• Calculates storage system cost based on component costs obtained from Kelly and Kearney (2006)
Compares the cost of parabolic trough plants with and without storage
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
TES Performance ModelTES Performance Model
Cold
No TES
HotTwo-Tank
Two-Tank
Direct
Indirect
1.
2.
3.
SolarField
Power Cycle
SolarField
Power Cycle
Power Cycle
Cold
HotHot HTF
Cold HTF
Hot Salt
Cold Salt
Hot H
TF
Co ld
HT F
SolarField
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Preliminary ResultsPreliminary Results
Compared to PT-CSP with no thermal storage:
• Benefits:Higher capacity factor, greater annual outputLower LCOE
• Costs: Higher capital costsCarbon tax necessary to compete with fossil fuelsHigher life cycle emissions, energy use and water use
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
0 3 6 9 12Hours of Storage
LC
OE (
$/kW
h)
IndirectDirect
Technology innovationTechnology innovationand learning ratesand learning rates
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Two Approaches to Estimating Two Approaches to Estimating Future Technology CostsFuture Technology Costs
• Method 1: Engineering-Economic AnalysisA “bottom up” approach based on engineering process models, informed by judgments regarding potential improvements in key process parameters
• Method 2: Use of Historical Experience CurvesA “top down” approach based on applications of mathematical “learning curves” or “experience curves” that reflect historical trends for analogous technologies or systems
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Case Study TechnologiesCase Study Technologies
• Flue gas desulfurization systems (FGD)
• Selective catalytic reduction systems (SCR)
• Gas turbine combined cycle system (GTCC)
• Pulverized coal-fired boilers (PC)
• Liquefied natural gas plants (LNG)
• Oxygen production plants (ASU)
• Hydrogen production plants (SMR)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Some Historical Cost TrendsSome Historical Cost Trends
1 9 6 81 9 7 2
1 9 7 4
1 9 7 5
1 9 7 61 9 8 0
1 9 8 2
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 5
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 5 0
3 0 0
0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0C u m u lative W or l d W e t FGD In s tal l e d
C apac i ty (GW )
Cap
ital C
osts
($/k
W) i
n 19
97$
( 1 0 0 0 M W , e f f = 8 0 - 9 0 % )
( 2 0 0 M W , e f f = 8 7 % )
y = 515.00x-0.08
PR = 0.95
100
1000
0 1 10 100 1000Cumulative World Pulverized-Coal Plant Installed Capacity (GW)
Subc
ritic
al P
C U
nit C
ost (
1994
$/
kW)
1942, EF=29.9%
19651999, US DOEF=37.6%Pulverized
Coal-Fired Boilers
y = 94254x-0.157
R2 = 0.43
10000
100000
1000 10000 100000
Cumulative Oxygen Production since 1980(Billion cubic feet)
Rea
l cap
ital c
ost
(US
$200
3/tp
d)
Oxygen Production
y = 269x-0.22
R2 = 0.52
10.0
100.0
1000.0
0.1 1 10 100
Cumulative LNG produced (Mta)
Liqu
efac
tion
capi
tal c
ost (
$/tp
a)
Actual liquefaction unit costTheoretical liquefaction unit costLNG Production
Flue Gas Desulfurization
Systems
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Case Study Learning RatesCase Study Learning Rates“Best Estimate”Learning Rates
Technology Capital Cost
O&M Cost
Flue gas desulfurization (FGD) 0.11 0.22
Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) 0.12 0.13
Gas turbine combined cycle (GTCC) 0.10 0.06
Pulverized coal (PC) boilers 0.05 0.18
LNG production 0.14 0.12
Oxygen production (ASU) 0.10 0.05
Hydrogen production (SMR) 0.27 0.27
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Apply to CCS Plant DesignsApply to CCS Plant Designs
PC Plant
Oxyfuel Plant
Coal
Air
Steam
Sta
ck
Amine/CO2
CO2
Steam Turbine
Generator
Electricity
Air PollutionControls
(SCR, ESP, FGD)
CO2 CaptureSystem
PC Boiler
Amine/CO2 Separation
MostlyN2
CO2Compression
Amine
CO2 tostorage
to atmosphere
Coal
Air
Steam
Sta
ck
Amine/CO2
CO2
Steam Turbine
Generator
Electricity
Air PollutionControls
(SCR, ESP, FGD)
CO2 CaptureSystem
PC Boiler
Amine/CO2 Separation
MostlyN2
CO2Compression
Amine
CO2 tostorage
to atmosphere
CoalDistillation
water
CO2
Air
H2O
O2
SteamTurbine
Generator
Electricity
Steam
PC Boiler CO2compression
Air Separation
Unit
CO2 to recycle
to atmosphere
Air PollutionControls
(ESP, FGD)
CO2CO2CoalDistillation
water
CO2
Air
H2O
O2
SteamTurbine
Generator
Electricity
Steam
PC Boiler CO2compression
Air Separation
Unit
CO2 to recycle
to atmosphere
Air PollutionControls
(ESP, FGD)
CO2CO2 to storage
to atmosphere
PC Plant
Oxyfuel Plant
Coal
Air
Steam
Sta
ck
Amine/CO2
CO2
Steam Turbine
Generator
Electricity
Air PollutionControls
(SCR, ESP, FGD)
CO2 CaptureSystem
PC Boiler
Amine/CO2 Separation
MostlyN2
CO2Compression
Amine
CO2 tostorage
to atmosphere
Coal
Air
Steam
Sta
ck
Amine/CO2
CO2
Steam Turbine
Generator
Electricity
Air PollutionControls
(SCR, ESP, FGD)
CO2 CaptureSystem
PC Boiler
Amine/CO2 Separation
MostlyN2
CO2Compression
Amine
CO2 tostorage
to atmosphere
CoalDistillation
water
CO2
Air
H2O
O2
SteamTurbine
Generator
Electricity
Steam
PC Boiler CO2compression
Air Separation
Unit
CO2 to recycle
to atmosphere
Air PollutionControls
(ESP, FGD)
CO2CO2CoalDistillation
water
CO2
Air
H2O
O2
SteamTurbine
Generator
Electricity
Steam
PC Boiler CO2compression
Air Separation
Unit
CO2 to recycle
to atmosphere
Air PollutionControls
(ESP, FGD)
CO2CO2 to storageCoalDistillation
water
CO2
Air
H2O
O2
SteamTurbine
Generator
Electricity
Steam
PC Boiler CO2compression
Air Separation
Unit
CO2 to recycle
to atmosphere
Air PollutionControls
(ESP, FGD)
CO2CO2CoalDistillation
water
CO2
Air
H2O
O2
SteamTurbine
Generator
Electricity
Steam
PC Boiler CO2compression
Air Separation
Unit
CO2 to recycle
to atmosphere
Air PollutionControls
(ESP, FGD)
CO2CO2 to storage
to atmosphere
Gas TurbineCombined
Cycle SystemH2O St
ack
O2
Air
Coal
Gasifier
Stac
k
Air Separation
Unit
ShiftReactor CO2
Selexol/CO2Separation
Selexol Selexol/CO2
H2CO2
CaptureSystem
CO2compression
CO2 tostorage
Quench System
H2Sulfur
Removal System
to atmosphere
H2O
Electricity
Air
Gas TurbineCombined
Cycle SystemH2O St
ack
O2
Air
Coal
Gasifier
Stac
k
Air Separation
Unit
ShiftReactor CO2
Selexol/CO2Separation
Selexol Selexol/CO2
H2CO2
CaptureSystem
CO2compression
CO2 tostorage
Quench System
H2Sulfur
Removal System
to atmosphere
H2O
Electricity
Air
NaturalGas S
tack
Amine Amine/CO2
CO2 tostorage
Electricity SteamTurbine
Generator
CO2 CaptureSystem
Steam
GasTurbine
Amine/CO2Separation
MostlyN2
CO2Compression
CO2
SteamGenerator
AirCompressor
Combustor
Air
to atmosphere
NaturalGas S
tack
Amine Amine/CO2
CO2 tostorage
Electricity SteamTurbine
Generator
CO2 CaptureSystem
Steam
GasTurbine
Amine/CO2Separation
MostlyN2
CO2Compression
CO2
SteamGenerator
AirCompressor
Combustor
Air
to atmosphereNGCC Plant
IGCC Plant
Gas TurbineCombined
Cycle SystemH2O St
ack
O2
Air
Coal
Gasifier
Stac
k
Air Separation
Unit
ShiftReactor CO2
Selexol/CO2Separation
Selexol Selexol/CO2
H2CO2
CaptureSystem
CO2compression
CO2 tostorage
Quench System
H2Sulfur
Removal System
to atmosphere
H2O
Electricity
Air
Gas TurbineCombined
Cycle SystemH2O St
ack
O2
Air
Coal
Gasifier
Stac
k
Air Separation
Unit
ShiftReactor CO2
Selexol/CO2Separation
Selexol Selexol/CO2
H2CO2
CaptureSystem
CO2compression
CO2 tostorage
Quench System
H2Sulfur
Removal System
to atmosphere
H2O
Electricity
Air
NaturalGas S
tack
Amine Amine/CO2
CO2 tostorage
Electricity SteamTurbine
Generator
CO2 CaptureSystem
Steam
GasTurbine
Amine/CO2Separation
MostlyN2
CO2Compression
CO2
SteamGenerator
AirCompressor
Combustor
Air
to atmosphere
NaturalGas S
tack
Amine Amine/CO2
CO2 tostorage
Electricity SteamTurbine
Generator
CO2 CaptureSystem
Steam
GasTurbine
Amine/CO2Separation
MostlyN2
CO2Compression
CO2
SteamGenerator
AirCompressor
Combustor
Air
to atmosphere
Gas TurbineCombined
Cycle SystemH2O St
ack
O2
Air
Coal
Gasifier
Stac
k
Air Separation
Unit
ShiftReactor CO2
Selexol/CO2Separation
Selexol Selexol/CO2
H2CO2
CaptureSystem
CO2compression
CO2 tostorage
Quench System
H2Sulfur
Removal System
to atmosphere
H2O
Electricity
Air
Gas TurbineCombined
Cycle SystemH2O St
ack
O2
Air
Coal
Gasifier
Stac
k
Air Separation
Unit
ShiftReactor CO2
Selexol/CO2Separation
Selexol Selexol/CO2
H2CO2
CaptureSystem
CO2compression
CO2 tostorage
Quench System
H2Sulfur
Removal System
to atmosphere
H2O
Electricity
Air
NaturalGas S
tack
Amine Amine/CO2
CO2 tostorage
Electricity SteamTurbine
Generator
CO2 CaptureSystem
Steam
GasTurbine
Amine/CO2Separation
MostlyN2
CO2Compression
CO2
SteamGenerator
AirCompressor
Combustor
Air
to atmosphere
NaturalGas S
tack
Amine Amine/CO2
CO2 tostorage
Electricity SteamTurbine
Generator
CO2 CaptureSystem
Steam
GasTurbine
Amine/CO2Separation
MostlyN2
CO2Compression
CO2
SteamGenerator
AirCompressor
Combustor
Air
to atmosphereNGCC Plant
IGCC Plant
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Select learning rate analogues Select learning rate analogues for each plant componentfor each plant component
Plant Type & Technology FGD SCR GTCC PC
boilerLNG prod
O2prod
IGCC PlantAir separation unit XGasifier area XSulfur removal/recovery X XCO2 capture system X XCO2 compressionGTCC (power block) X
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Summary of COE ResultsSummary of COE Results(Based on 100 GW of cumulative CCS capacity)(Based on 100 GW of cumulative CCS capacity)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Perc
ent R
educ
tion
in C
OE
NGCC PC IGCC Oxyfuel
% REDUCTION
0
2
4
6
8
10
Pow
er P
lant
Lea
rnin
g R
ate
(%)
NGCC PC IGCC Oxyfuel
COST OF ELECTRICITY
(excluding T&S costs)
E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon
Work in Progress:Work in Progress: Characterizing Characterizing Radical Technological InnovationRadical Technological Innovation
Literature Review
of “radical innovation”
MotivationR&D programs and
policies are targeting “radical” change
InterviewsWith experts from fossil-energy R&D
community
Implications for R&D planning and
evaluation to accomplish “radical”
change in fossil-energy
Case Studiesof instances of “radical”change in fossil-energy
Literature Review
of “radical innovation”
MotivationR&D programs and
policies are targeting “radical” change
InterviewsWith experts from fossil-energy R&D
community
Implications for R&D planning and
evaluation to accomplish “radical”
change in fossil-energy
Case Studiesof instances of “radical”change in fossil-energy