+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding...

Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding...

Date post: 11-Sep-2021
Category:
Upload: others
View: 2 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
282
Transcript
Page 1: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results
Page 2: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

PraiseforSystemsThinkingforSocialChange“Itisnothardforpeopletoappreciatethatfragmented,piecemealeffortstosolvecomplexproblemsareineffective.Buthavingconcreteapproachestoanalternativeisanothermatter.Afteralmostfourdecadesofapplyingpracticalsystems-thinkingtoolsindiversesettings,DavidStrohhasproducedanelegantandcogentguidetowhatworks.Researchwithearlylearnersisshowingthatchildrenarenaturalsystemsthinkers.Thisbookwillhelptoresuscitatetheseintuitivecapabilitiesandstrengthentheminthefireoffacingourtoughestproblems.”

—PeterSenge,seniorlecturer,MIT,foundingchair,AcademyforSystemicChange,andauthorofTheFifthDiscipline

“SystemsThinkingforSocialChangeusesclear,down-to-earthlanguagetoexplainandillustratesystemsthinking,whyitmatters,andhowitcanleadtogreatersuccessinthesocialsector.Thebookisbriefyetdeep,bigpictureyetrigorouslyanalytical.Strohdisplaysconsiderablenarrativeskill,especiallywhenhesharesnumerousstoriesfromhispracticeofapplyingvarioussystemstoolsthatledgroupstonewandstartlingconclusions.Readingthisbookwilltestthereadersubstantially,astheauthorinvitesustoadeeperlevelofintrospectionaboutourownroleinsystemsfailuresofeverykind—organizationalandsocietal—andgentlyasksustoembraceanewway,notmerelyofthinkingbutofbeingintheworld.Aremarkablebook.”

—DavidNee,GrowthPhilanthropyNetwork,andformerexecutivedirector,WilliamCasparGrausteinMemorialFund

“Drawingonadeepwellofexperience,Strohmasterfullyweavesmetaphor,story,andpracticaltools,modelingforusalleffectivesystemsthinkinginaction.Readitandgetreadytotakeyourgameupanotch.”

—LindaBoothSweeney,authorofConnectedWisdomandcoauthoroftheTheSystemsThinkingPlaybook

“DavidPeterStrohhasbeenapioneerintheefforttobringprinciplesofsystemsintotheserviceofthosestrivingforconstructivesocialchange.(Itookacoursefromhimoverthirtyyearsago.)Manybookstellyouhowtoengageinsystemsthinkingbutnothowtoapplyit.Thisisaveryusefulexception.Peterdrawsonmanyyearsofprofessionalengagementwiththeimportantproblemsofoursociety.Ofcoursereadinghisbookwon’tletyoubanishallthoseproblems.But

Page 3: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

itwillhelpyoufocusyoureffortwhereyoucanhavethebestimpact,anditwillshowyouhowtoenlistothersintheeffort.”

—DennisMeadows,coauthorofLimitstoGrowthandformerdirector,InstituteforPolicyandSocialScience

“Thephilanthropicsectorhasshiftedfroma‘charity’mindsettoafocusonchangingsystemstocreatesustainablechange.SystemsThinkingforSocialChangeofferspracticaltoolsforthoseseriousaboutimprovingcommunitiesandorganizations.Itdoesn’tminimizethecomplexity,butratherempowerssocial-changeagentswithtoolstounderstandthecomplexityandidentifytheleveragepoints.”

—TeresaBehrens,director,InstituteforFoundationandDonorLearning

“Ifthereisonlyonebookyoureadonsystemsthinking,itshouldbeSystemsThinkingforSocialChange.Ifyou’renewtosystemsthinking,Iconsiderthisamustread.Ifyou’vebeeninvolvedinsystemsthinkingforsometimeandwantarenewedandextendedperspective,Ihighlyrecommendit.Stroh’snewworkcoversalltherelevantareasappropriateforasolidintroductiontosystemsthinking,thoughitdoesn’tstopthere.Itmakesaseriouscontributionbydetailinganumberofreal-worldsituationsthathavebeeninvestigatedandimprovedusingtheapproachpresentedinthebook.AnditdoesverywellsomethingthatI’venotseendonebefore:itnotonlyshowshowtomapthecurrentsystem,butalsoshowshowtothencreatearevisedmapofhowthesystemisintendedtoworkinthefuture.Thisapproachendsupidentifyingwheremeasurementsshouldbemadeonanongoingbasistoascertainwhetherthesystemisundergoingtheintendedtransformation.”

—GeneBellinger,director,SystemsThinkingWorld,Inc.

“WiththisbookStrohhasproducedanessential—andlongoverdue—guidetoappliedsystemsthinking.Afewwell-selectedexamplesofinitiativesthatturnedfrom‘working’to‘transformative’laythefoundationforhowchangemakerscanaddresschronic,complexsocialproblemsanddeepentheirimpact.Afterhelpingthereaderrecognizewhatmightbeholdingtheirinterventionsback,thebookmoveswitheaseintowaysoffindingleverage,theuseofsystemsstories,andthepowerofvisioning.InStroh’scapablehands,systemsthinkingbecomesatoolfordefiningpersonalororganizationalpriorities,forplanning,andforevaluatingsuccessthroughmeasurableindicators.Butthebookismuchmorethanaformidabletoolboxfromwhichtodrawonadailybasis.Itis,atitsdeeperlevel,awarminvitationtocultivatesystemsthinkingas‘awayofbeing,notjust

Page 4: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

doing,sothatonthewaytolong-lasting,desirableoutcomes,changemakerscanbecomemoreandmorethechangetheywanttosee.”

—MartaCeroni,executivedirector,DonellaMeadowsInstitute

“DavidStroh,inhisinvaluablenewbook,showsthatgoodintentionsarenotenoughforthosewhoaspiretomakelastingprogressonfundamentalsocialissues—andalsohowthelanguageandtoolsofsystemstheorycanprovideadeeperunderstandingoftherootcausesandhelpidentifytheleveragepointsforproductiveandsustainablechange.”

—RussellEisenstat,executivedirector,CenterforHigherAmbitionLeadership

“Overfifteenyearsago,DavidStrohwasinstrumentalinintroducingsystemsthinkingtothepeace-buildingfield,usingtoolsthathaveproventobepowerfulforimprovingtheeffectivenessofourwork.Thisbookisavaluableresourceforourfield—amustreadforallpractitionerswhohavebeenseekingpracticalandeasy-to-understandguidanceonusingsystemsthinkingforconflictanalysisandstrategicplanning.”—DianaChigas,professorofpractice,FletcherSchoolofLawandDiplomacyatTuftsUniversity,andco-

directorofcollaborativelearning,CDACollaborativeLearningProjects

“Strohhasofferedanimportantgeminhisnewbook,SystemsThinkingforSocialChange.Bothilluminatingandimmediatelyuseful,thebooksharesthekeydynamicsandsuccessfactorsgleanedfromhislongcareerofworkingwithorganizationsstrugglingwithsociety’smostpersistentissues.Amustreadforanyonewhoseaimistomakeadifferenceontheground.”—KristinaWile,co-president,LeverageNetworks,andmanagingpartner,SystemsThinkingCollaborative

“Thisisamustreadforpublicleadersandcitizenswhoareinterestedinthelearningdisciplinesrequiredforasustainable,proactiveapproachtopreservingoursharedresources.”

—GeorgiannaBishop,president,ThePublicSectorConsortium

“Forthosewhohaveworkedformanyyearsinthesocial-servicesectorandwhohavegrowncynicalordisillusionedastowhetheritisevenpossibletoeffectmajorsocialchange,DavidPeterStroh’sbook,SystemsThinkingforSocialChange,isamustread—aclear,thoughtful,andpracticalguideforthosedesiringtocreatelastingsocialchange.Butreaderbeware!Systemsthinkingismorethananewwayofthinking.AsStrohputsit,itisanewwayofbeing.Itrequirestheabilitytolookatthingsinanewway,tointeractwithothersdifferently,tohaveaclearvisionofwhereyouwanttogo,awillingnesstosee

Page 5: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

thingsthewaytheyare,and,finally,thecouragetotakeresponsibilityforwhythesystemasisisn’tworking.Ifyouwanttohelpcreatelong-lasting,effectivesocialchange,ifyouwanttosay‘we’redoingit—we’reactuallymakingprogress,’thenreadthisbook.”

—AnneMiskey,executivedirector,FundersTogethertoEndHomelessness

“Asphilanthropicorganizationsincreasinglyseektostrengthentheirimpact,theperspectives,methods,andtoolsdescribedinStroh’sbookprovideuswithcriticalguidanceforthinkingandactiontoaddresscomplexsocialproblemsandforbuilding‘all-in’approachestoproblemsolving.Anyoneingovernment,nonprofits,orphilanthropycanbenefitfromthisapproachtosolutions.Andwhileitmighttakealifetimetomastertheuseofsystemsthinkingforsocialchange,reorientinghowwethinkaboutproblemsinthiswaycanimmediatelysetusonanewpathtowardsustainabilityandgreaterlikelihoodofsuccess.”

—LexiNolen,vicepresident,EpiscopalHealthFoundation

“Systemsthinkingquicklygetsveryabstractandtechnical,oftenunderplayingthesocialandstorytellingdimensions.ForalongtimeI’vebeenlookingforamorepractical,readable,andengagingintroductorybookformyclasses.Now,finally,hereitis!”—PerEspenStoknes,authorofWhatWeThinkAboutWhenWeTryNotToThinkAboutGlobalWarming

andseniorlectureratBINorwegianBusinessSchool

“Societalproblemsareaswirlofcauses,effects,interactions,andcontributingrelationships.Yet,toooften,simplisticanswersareappliedbythewell-intendedthatonlytouchononestrandofwhatis(inreality)acomplexandinterconnectedweb.Stroh’sworkprovidesanactionableguideonhowtomodeltheserelationships—andmoreimportantlyhowtohaveameaningfulandlastingimpactonthem.”

—JasonE.Glass,superintendentandchieflearner,EagleCountySchools

Page 6: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results
Page 7: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

DedicatedtoMygrandfather,Dr.AlbertSondheimer,andmother,EvaSondheimerStroh,

Whoembodiedthecommitmenttorepairingtheworld

Page 8: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTIONWhatYouWillLearnStructureoftheBook

PARTONE:SYSTEMSTHINKINGFORSOCIALCHANGECHAPTER1.WHYGOODINTENTIONSARENOTENOUGHDistinguishingConventionalfromSystemsThinkingRefiningtheDefinitionofSystemsThinkingClosingtheLoop

CHAPTER2.SYSTEMSTHINKINGINSIDE:ACATALYSTFORSOCIALCHANGEHowSystemsThinkingMeetsFourChallengesofChangeWhentoUseSystemsThinkingSystemsThinkingforCollectiveImpactClosingtheLoop

CHAPTER3.TELLINGSYSTEMSSTORIESStorytellingforSocialChangeShapingaSystemsStoryTheElementsofSystemsStructureClosingtheLoop

CHAPTER4.DECIPHERINGTHEPLOTSOFSYSTEMSSTORIESBasicPlotLinesThePlotsThickenTheStoriesBehindtheStoryClosingtheLoop

PARTTWO:THEFOUR-STAGECHANGEPROCESSCHAPTER5.ANOVERVIEWOFTHEFOUR-STAGECHANGEPROCESSConveningandThinkingSystemicallyTheFour-StageChangeProcessClosingtheLoop

CHAPTER6.BUILDINGAFOUNDATIONFORCHANGEEngageKeyStakeholdersEstablishCommonGroundBuildCollaborativeCapacityClosingtheLoop

CHAPTER7.FACINGCURRENTREALITY:BUILDINGUNDERSTANDINGTHROUGHSYSTEMSMAPPING

Page 9: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

EstablishSystemsInterviewsOrganizeInformationDevelopaPreliminarySystemsAnalysisHowtoBalanceSimplicityandComplexityClosingtheLoop

CHAPTER8.FACINGCURRENTREALITY:BUILDINGSUPPORTBYBRINGINGTHESYSTEMTOLIFEEngagePeopleinDevelopingTheirOwnAnalysisSurfaceMentalModelsCreateCatalyticConversationsClosingtheLoop

CHAPTER9.MAKINGANEXPLICITCHOICEUnderstandPayoffstotheExistingSystemComparetheCaseforChangewiththeCasefortheStatusQuoCreateBoth/andSolutions—orMakeaTrade-OffMakeanExplicitChoiceWhatCanYouDoWhenPeopleAreStillNotAligned?ClosingtheLoop

CHAPTER10.BRIDGINGTHEGAPIdentifyHigh-LeverageInterventionsEstablishaProcessforContinuousLearningandOutreachHowtoIntegrateMultipleInterventionsClosingtheLoop

PARTTHREE:SHAPINGTHEFUTURECHAPTER11.SYSTEMSTHINKINGFORSTRATEGICPLANNINGTwoSystemicTheoriesofChangeOrganizingLeveragePointsIntegratingSuccessFactorsStreamliningChoicesHowtoRefineYourSystemicTheoryofChangeClosingtheLoop

CHAPTER12.SYSTEMSTHINKINGFOREVALUATIONGeneralSystemicGuidelinesTrackingSuccessAmplificationTrackingGoalAchievementClosingtheLoop

CHAPTER13.BECOMINGASYSTEMSTHINKERDevelopaSystemsOrientationLearnbyDoingAskSystemicQuestionsClosingtheLoop

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSAPPENDIXA.VICIOUSCYCLESOFCLIMATECHANGE

Page 10: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

APPENDIXB.SAMPLEINTERVIEWQUESTIONSFORSPECIFICPROJECTSAPPENDIXC.MULTIPLE-ARCHETYPEDIAGRAMSAPPENDIXD.ADDITIONALRESOURCESNOTESABOUTTHEAUTHOR

Page 11: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

INTRODUCTION

Whetheryouarecommittedtoendinghomelessness,strengtheningeducation,improvingpublichealth,reducingtheproblemsofpoverty,developingenvironmentalsustainability,orhelpingpeoplelivebetterlivesinotherways,youmighthavenoticedthattheorganizationsandsystemsyouwanttochangehavealifeoftheirown.Inotherwords,youdothingstotrytoimprovethemandtheyessentiallycontinuetooperateasifyourinputmakesnodifference.Organizationsandsocialsystemsdoinfacthavealifeoftheirown.Assomeonecommittedtoachievingsustainable,breakthroughsocialchange,

ithelpstounderstandtheseforcessothatyoucanconsciouslyworkwiththeminsteadofunconsciouslyworkingagainstthem.Youmightbeworkinginafoundationornonprofit,governmentagencyorlegislature,departmentofcorporatesocialresponsibility,orasaconsultanttopeopleintheseroles.Inanerawhengrowingincomeinequalityandclimatechangeincreasethevulnerabilityofmanyandreducethesustainabilityofall,youmightfeelcalledtodomoretohealtheworld.Youmightalsobechallengedtoachievemorewithless—lesstime,attention,andmoneythanyouhadbefore.

Thebookisbasedonasimplepremise:Applyingsystemsthinkingprinciplesandtoolsenablesyoutoachievebetterresultswithfewerresourcesinmorelastingways.Systemsthinkingworksbecauseit:

•Increasesyourawarenessofhowyoumightunwittinglybecontributingtotheveryproblemsyouwanttosolve.•Empowersyoutobeginfromwhereyoucanhavethegreatestimpactonothers,byreflectingonandshiftingyourownintentions,thinking,andactions.•Mobilizesdiversestakeholderstotakeactionsthatincreasetheeffectivenessofthewholesystemovertimeinsteadofmeetingtheirimmediateself-interests.•Helpsyouandothersanticipateandavoidthenegativelonger-termconsequencesofwell-intentionedsolutions.

Page 12: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Identifieshigh-leverageinterventionsthatfocuslimitedresourcesformaximum,lasting,systemwideimprovement.•Motivatesandsupportscontinuouslearning.

Morespecifically,ifyouarethedirectororprogramofficerinafoundation,learningtothinksystemicallywillhelpyoubemoreeffectiveinyourrolesasconvener,grantmaker,andeducator/advocate.Youwillbecomeabetterconvenerby:

•Enablingdiversestakeholderstoseethebigpicture.•Catalyzingconversationsofaccountabilityamongstakeholderssothateachbecomesawareofhowtheyunwittinglycontributetotheveryproblemtheywanttosolve.•Mobilizingpeopletooptimizethewholesysteminsteadofjusttheirpartofit.

Youcanincreaseyoureffectivenessasafunderbyusingsystemsthinkingto:

•Uncoverrootcausesofchronic,complexproblems.•Identifyhigh-leverageinterventions.•Strengthenyourcommitmenttoinvestforthelongtermandyourabilitytoevaluateimpactovertime.

Youcanbecomeamoreeffectiveeducatorandadvocatebyusingsystemsthinkingto:

•Informpolicymakersandthepublicabouttheshort-versuslong-termconsequencesofproposedsolutions.•Reducepeople’saddictionstoquickfixesthatarelikelytoonlymakemattersworseinthelongrun.•Championearlysmallsuccessesthatalsosupportpeople’shigherandlonger-termaspirations.

Ifyouareanonprofitorgovernmentagencythatdependsonoutsidefunding,youcanusesystemsthinkingto:

•Deepenyourunderstandingoftheproblemsyouwanttosolve.•Engagepeopleinthecommunitiesyouservemoreeffectively.

Page 13: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Distillyourinsightsintovisualsystemsmapsthat“areworthathousandwords.”•Identifystrategicinterventionsthatbestleveragelimitedresources.•Writemorepowerfulgrantrequeststhatincorporatealloftheabove.

Asalegislatororpolicymaker,youcanusesystemsthinkingto:

•Thinkmoreclearlyaboutwhysocialproblemspersistdespiteyourbesteffortstosolvethem.•Anticipateandavoidlong-termnegativeunintendedconsequencesofproposedsolutions.•Identifyhigh-leverageinterventionsthatmakethemostofpublictaxdollars.•Powerfullycommunicatethebenefitsofproposedlegislationandpolicytoyourconstituentsbasedonalloftheabove.

Youcanusesystemsthinkingasacorporatesocialresponsibilitymanagertodevelopmoreeffectivepartnershipswithkeyexternalstakeholdergroupsinboththenonprofitandpublicsectors.Itcanhelpyou:

•Seethebigpicturemoreclearly.•Uncoverandowntheunintendednegativeconsequencesofyourownactions.•Workwithexternalstakeholderstodevelopsolutionsthataremorelikelytobenefitallpartiesovertime.

Ifyouareaprofessionalinthesystemsthinkingcommunitywhoiscommittedtosocialchange,youcanlearnhowtointegratethetoolsofsystemsthinkingintoaprovenchangemanagementprocess.

Ifyouareanorganizationalorcommunitydevelopmentconsultant,youcanusesystemsthinkingtoincreasepeople’smotivationstochange,facilitatecollaborationacrossdiversestakeholders,identifyhigh-leverageinterventions,andinspireacommitmenttocontinuouslearning.

WhatYouWillLearn

Page 14: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

SystemsThinkingforSocialChangehelpsyouachievethesebenefitsbyunderstandingwhatsystemsthinkingisandhowitcanempoweryourwork.Itwillalsohelpyouappreciatethebasicprinciplesandtoolsofsystemsthinking,andlearnhowtoapplyittoproblemsolving,decisionmaking,andstrategicplanningwithoutbecomingatechnicalexpert.

Morespecifically,youwilllearnto:

Usesystemsthinkinginsteadofmoreconventionallinearthinkingtoaddresschronic,complexsocialproblems.Einsteinobserved,“Thesignificantproblemswefacecannotbesolvedwiththesamelevelofthinkingwewereatwhenwecreatedthem.”Systemsthinkingismoreappropriatethanconventionalthinkingtosolvechronic,complexsocialproblems.Bycontrast,youcanunwittinglyperpetuatesuchproblemsbythinkingconventionallyabouthowtosolvethem.

Applysystemsthinkingasbothasetofprinciplesandaparticulargroupofanalytictools.ThetoolsinSystemsThinkingforSocialChange—whichincludetheiceberg,thecausalloopdiagrammingandsystemsarchetypespopularizedbyPeterSenge,andtheBathtubAnalogy—haveprovenhighlyeffectiveinshiftinghowpeopleaddresssocialproblems.1Whilemanyotheranalytictoolsexist,2thisbookdemonstrateswhythesespecifictoolsareespeciallyhelpfulinenablingadiversegroupofstakeholdersto,inthewordsofexecutiveconsultantRamCharan,“cutthroughcomplexitytotheheartofthematter,withoutbeingsuperficial.”3

Integratesystemsthinkingintoaprovenfour-stagechangemanagementprocess.Therearemanychangeprocessesthatseektoaligndiversestakeholderswithouthelpingpeopleunderstandhowtheirthinkingandsubsequentbehaviorunintentionallyunderminestheirownperformance,theperformanceofothersinthesystem,andthesystem’seffectivenessasawhole.Inotherwords,theyoftenestablishcommongroundaroundasharedaspirationyetfailtohelppeopledevelopajointunderstandingofnotonlywhathasbeenhappeningbutalsowhy.Insearchingforrootcauses,peopletypicallyassumethattheyaredoingthebesttheycanandthatsomeoneelseistoblame—

Page 15: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

insteadofrecognizing,inthewordsofleadershipexpertBillTorbert,that“ifyouarenotawareofhowyouarepartoftheproblem,youcan’tbepartofthesolution.”Bycontrast,systemsthinkingenablespeopletoidentifyhigh-leverageinterventionsbasedondeepinsightsintorootcausesthatincorporatetheirownthinkingandbehavior.Thisbookrevealsafour-stagechangemanagementprocess,groundedin

systemsthinking,thatmylongtimecolleagueMichaelGoodmanofInnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearningandIhavebeenworkingwithformorethanfifteenyears.Italsodiscusseshowyoucanbuildsystemsthinkingintootherchangeprocesses.Manynewprocesseshaveemergedinrecentyearstoengagediversestakeholdersasawayofmanagingcomplexityandsharingresources.4Fromasystemsthinkingperspective,thekeyistohelpparticipantscultivateadeepawarenessofcurrentrealityassomethingtheyhavecreatedinsteadofassomethingthatexistsoutsideofandindependentofthem.

Catalyzeanexplicitchoicebetweenthepurposepeoplesaytheywanttoaccomplishandthebenefitstheyareachievingrightnow.Systemsareperfectlydesignedtoachievetheresultstheyarecurrentlyachieving.5Inotherwords,nomatterhowdysfunctionalasystemappearstobe,itisproducingbenefitsforthepeoplewhoparticipateinit.Apivotalinterventionyouwilllearninthischangeprocessistohelppeoplecomparethebenefitsofchangewiththebenefitsofthestatusquo—andthenhelpthemmakeaconsciouschoicebetweenthepayoffstheyarenowgettingandtheespousedpurposetheysaytheywantthesystemtoaccomplish.Thisinvolvesdeepeningpeople’sconnectionswithwhattheycareaboutmostandsupportingthemtoletgoofcurrentpayoffsthatdonotservetheirhighestaspirations.

Applysystemsthinkingprospectivelyaswellasretrospectively.Thebookhighlightstheapplicationofsystemsthinkingretrospectivelytohelppeopledevelopbettersolutionstochronic,complexsocialproblemsbyfirstdeepeningtheirunderstandingofwhytheyhavebeenunsuccessfulsofardespitetheirbestefforts.Emphasizingtheretrospectiveapplicationofsystemsthinkingissoimportantbecausepeopletendtocreatemoreproblemsbyfailingtofirstfullyappreciatetheproblemtheyaretryingtosolve.

Page 16: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Atthesametime,thebookalsoshowsyouhowtousethetoolsprospectivelyforstrategicplanningandassessment.Youwilllearntointegrateleveragepointsintoasystemictheoryofchange,designnewsystemswherethereisnoprecedent,organizeyourpriorities,andestablishanevaluationmethodgroundedinsystemsprinciples.

Cultivatesystemsthinkingasawayofbeing—notjustasawayofthinking.Becausesystemsthinkingchallengespeopletotakemoreresponsibilityfortheiractionsandmakehardchoices,itisframedinthisbookasmorethanawayofthinking.Thebookdescribeshowtheapproachaffectspeoplenotonlycognitivelybutalsoemotionally,spiritually,andbehaviorally.Asyoubuildyourcapacitytothinksystemically,youwilldiscoverthatthetoolsbothenableandrequireyoutodevelopanewwayofbeing,notjustdoing—asetofcharactertraitstocultivate(suchascuriosity,compassion,andcourage)thatcomplementanddeepenyournewskills.

TheconceptswillbetiedcloselytoexperiencesmycolleaguesandIhavehadinapplyingsystemsthinkingtosocialchangeinitiatives.Someofthestoriesyouwillreadaboutaddress:

•Aligningacommunityofahundredthousandpeoplearoundaten-yearplantoendhomelessness.•Designingamoreeffectivestatewideearly-childhooddevelopmentandeducationsystem.•Improvingthequalityofenvironmentalpublichealthinstates,counties,andcitiesaroundtheUnitedStates.•Reformingthecriminaljusticesystemwithparticularattentiontoreducingrecidivismamongpeoplerecentlyreleasedfromprison.•ImprovingrelationshipsbetweentwoagenciesresponsibleforimprovingK–12educationintheirstate.•Increasingpeople’sfitnessandconsumptionofhealthylocalfoodinaruralregion.

StructureoftheBook

Page 17: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Thebookisorganizedintothreeparts.Part1introducessystemsthinkingwithinthecontextofsocialchangeandincludesfourchapters.Chapter1explainswhypeople’sbestintentionstosolvechronicsocialproblemsoftenfailtodeliverexpectedresults,definessystemandsystemsthinking,anddistinguishessystemsthinkingfromconventionalthinking.Chapter2explainswhysystemsthinkingiseffectiveinmeetingfourchallengesofmanagingchange,identifiessixindicatorsthathelpyoudeterminewhenapplyingsystemsthinkingislikelytobemostuseful,anddescribesinparticularhowitcancontributetothepioneeringcross-sectorcoordinationprocessknownasCollectiveImpact.

Chapter3introducesthemetaphorofsystemsthinkingasstorytelling.Itdistinguishestwotypesofstories:amorecommononethattendstoperpetuatethestatusquo,andasystemiconethatstimulatesproductivechange.Thischapteralsoexplainsthepoweroflanguagetocreatestoriesandsummarizesthebasicelementsforformulatingasystemsstory.Chapter4deepensthismetaphorbyilluminatingbasicstorylinesandrichersystemicpatternsorplotsthatunderlieadiversesetofsocialissues.Ifyouarealreadyfamiliarwithsystemsthinking,youmightwanttopayparticularattentiontothewaysinwhichsystemsthinkingmobilizeschange(chapter2)andskimthenexttwochaptersfortheirmanysocialandenvironmentalexamples.

Part2describesthefour-stagechangeprocess.Chapter5introducesthisfour-stageprocessas:

1.Buildingafoundationforchange.2.Seeingcurrentrealitymoreclearly.3.Makinganexplicitchoiceaboutwhatismostimportant.4.Bridgingthegapbetweenpeople’saspirationsandcurrentstate.

Chapter6describeshowtobuildafoundationforchangebyidentifyingandengagingkeystakeholders,establishingcommonground,anddevelopingcollaborativecapacity.Itaddressessuchchallengesasworkingwithstakeholderswhoaremotivatedbyimmediateself-interestsaswellashigheraspirations,focusingtheireffortsaroundwhatcanseemlikeaboundlesschallenge,andbuildingrelationalskillsthatenablepeopletobecomeresponsibleparticipantsinacomplexworld.

Page 18: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Chapter7explainshowstakeholderscantakeadeepdiveintocurrentrealityearlyinthechangeprocess—andalsowhythisstepiscritical.Often,peoplebeginasocialchangeprocesswithsimilaraspirationsfortheoutcomebuthaveverydifferentperceptionsofwhattherealdifficultyisandwhatshouldbedonetosolveit.Theydon’tappreciatehowtheirownintentions,beliefs,andbehavioraffecttheperformanceofothersaswellastheirown.Failingtoseethebigpicture,theyaremorelikelytoproposefamiliarsolutionsthatriskperpetuatingtheveryproblemtheyhavebeentryingtosolve.Inothercases,peoplemightfeeloverwhelmedbythecomplexityofthebigpictureandquestioniftheycandoanythingdifferently.Thechapterhelpsreadersassesscurrentrealitybyrecommendinghowtogatherandorganizeinformationforasystemsanalysis;presentingtheresultsofsystemsanalysesfromseveralsocialchangeinitiatives;andshowinghowtocreatesystemsanalysesthatarecomprehensiveenoughtocovermanycriticalfactorsandviewpoints,yetsimpleenoughtocommunicateandactupon.

Chapter8addresseshowtobuildsupportfortheoutcomeofasystemsanalysis.Helpingstakeholdersacceptnewinsightsaboutthesystemwarrantsaseparatechapterbecausethelanguageofsystemsthinkingisoftenunfamiliarandthemessageofshiftingfromblametoresponsibilitycanbedifficulttoembrace.Thechapterdescribesthreewaystomeetthesechallenges:engagingpeopletodeveloptheirownanalysisasmuchaspossible;surfacingthementalmodelsthatinfluencehowpeoplebehave;andcreatingcatalyticconversationsthatstimulateawareness,acceptance,andalternatives.

Chapter9guidesstakeholderstomakeaninformedandexplicitchoiceaboutthepurposetheywantthesystemtoaccomplish.Sinceasystemisalwaysdesignedtoachievesomething,nomatterhowdysfunctionalitseems,apivotalinterventionistohelppeopledistinguish,andwherenecessarychoose,betweenwhatthesystemisaccomplishingrightnowandwhattheyaspiretoaccomplish.Thechapterprovidesawaytohelppeoplecomparethecaseforchange(inlinewithwhattheydeeplywant)withthecaseforthestatusquo(theoftenhiddenbenefitspeoplegetfromparticipatinginthesystemasitbehavesnow).Becausethereareusuallytrade-offsbetweencurrentbenefitsandpeople’shigheraspirations,theprocesssupportsstakeholderstomakeanexplicitchoicebased

Page 19: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

onwhattheycareaboutmostdeeply,feelmostdrawntoachieve,andarewillingtoletgooftoachievewhatisevenmoreimportanttothem.Atthispointsharedvisioningtakesonmoremeaning,sincepeoplealsoacknowledgethesacrificesthatrealizingthevisionentails.Theybecomemorewillingtooptimizethewholesysteminsteadofcontinuingtooptimizejusttheirpart.

Chapter10helpspeoplebridgethegapbetweencurrentrealityandtheirconsciouslychosendirection.Itinvolvesidentifyingleveragepointsandestablishingaprocessofcontinuouslearningandoutreach.Thechapterdescribesfourgenericleveragepoints:increasingpeople’sawarenessoftheiroftennon-obviousinterdependencies;“rewiring”keycause–effectrelationships;shiftingunderlyingbeliefsandassumptions;andaligningthechosenpurposewithupdatedgoals,metrics,incentives,authoritystructures,andfundingstreams.Italsoshowshowtoextendtheprocessbeguninthepreviousfourstagesthroughlearningfromexperience,expandingtheresourcepool,andscalingupwhatworks.

Part3describesthreewaysyoucanusesystemsthinkingtoshapethefuture.Chapter11addresseshowtoapplysystemsthinkingtostrategicplanning.Itexplainstheadvantagesofsystemicoverlineartheoriesofchange;introducestwocoresystemictheoriesofchange;andshowshowthesetheoriescanbeusedintegrateleveragepoints,criticalsuccessfactors,anddisparateprioritiestodevelopcoherentandnavigablestrategiesovertime.Chapter12answersthequestionfrequentlyposedbyprivateandpublicfundersabouthowsystemsthinkingcancontributetoevaluation.Thechapterprovidesbroadguidelinesforconductingsystemicevaluationsandspecificrecommendationsforvalidatingexplicitsystemictheoriesofchange.

Finally,chapter13providesguidelinesfordevelopingyourabilityasasystemsthinkerovertime.Itoffersthreewaysforward:cultivatinganorientationthatintegratesthecognitive,emotional,behavioral,andspiritualdimensionsofthesystemsapproach;learningbydoing;andaskingsystemicquestions.

Insummary,thebookprovidesyouwithmanywaystothinkandactmoreproductively,usingmethodsthathavebeentestedoverdecadeswithclientsfacingawiderangeofseeminglyintractablesocialproblems.Thetacticsinthe

Page 20: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

pagesaheadcanhelpevenhighlyskilledchangemakersgetclosertotheirgoalsanddevelopsomecruciallifelongproblem-solvingtraits.

Forseveralyears,ItaughtinanationalprogramthatintroducedsystemsthinkingapproachestofellowsintheCentersforDiseaseControl’sEnvironmentalPublicHealthLeadershipInstitute.Areportconductedontheprogramindicatedthatfellowslearnedto:

•Thinkthroughdifficultissues.•Understandwhattheydonotknowandhowtolearnit.•Askgreatquestions.•Engageothersmoreeffectivelybyseeingrealityfromtheirperspective.•Applyaproblem-solvingapproachthatisbothflexibleandconcrete.•Seeabiggerpicturethatclarifiesconnectionsamongmanyfactorsandidentifiesrootcausesofcomplexproblems.•Focusonwhatismostimportant.•Worktowarddeepsystemschangebytransformingtheunderlyingassumptionsandpoliciesthatgovernexistingprocessesandprocedures.

Theseresultsrepresentthepromiseofsystemsthinkingforsocialchangeandtheopportunitiesavailabletoyouasyoureadon.

Page 21: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

PARTONE

SYSTEMSTHINKINGFORSOCIALCHANGE

Page 22: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—CHAPTER1—

WhyGoodIntentionsAreNotEnough

Considerthefollowingheadlines,whichareallbasedontruestories:

HOMELESSSHELTERSPERPETUATEHOMELESSNESS

DRUGBUSTSINCREASEDRUG-RELATEDCRIME

FOODAIDINCREASESSTARVATION

“GET-TOUGH”PRISONSENTENCESFAILTOREDUCETHEFEAROFVIOLENTCRIME

JOBTRAININGPROGRAMSINCREASEUNEMPLOYMENT

Whatisgoingonhere?Whydoseeminglywell-intentionedpoliciesproducetheoppositeofwhattheyaresupposedtoaccomplish?

Ifyoulookcloselyatthesesolutionsandmanyotherstoriesoffailedsocialpolicies,theyhavesimilarcharacteristics.They:

•Addresssymptomsratherthanunderlyingproblems.

Page 23: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Seemobviousandoftensucceedintheshortrun.•Achieveshort-termgainsthatareunderminedbylonger-termimpacts.•Producenegativeconsequencesthatareunintentional.•Leadustoassumethatwearenotresponsiblefortheproblem’srecurrence.

Forexample,get-toughprisonsentencesdonotaddressthesocioeconomiccausesofmostinner-citycrime.Althoughtheperpetratorsgotoprisonandposelessofanimmediatethreat,95percentofthemareeventuallyreleasedbackintosociety—hardenedbytheirexperienceandillpreparedtoreentertheircommunitiesproductively.Nearlyhalfofthosereleasedfromprisonareimprisonedagainwithinthefirstthreeyearsforcommittingarepeatoffense.1

Moreover,thecurrentsystemfurtherweakenstheinfrastructureofthesecommunitiesbecauseitincarceratesfathersandmotherswhocannolongerbringuptheirchildren—therebycreatingmoreinstabilityandincreasingthelikelihoodofproducinganewgenerationofpeoplewhocommitcrimes.Thesystemalsoredirectsvaluablepublicfundsawayfromthesocioeconomicandcriminaljusticereformsthatcouldreducecrimepermanently.Finally,ifaformerlyincarceratedpersoncommitsanothercrime,heorsheissentbacktoprisonwithoutconsideringhowget-toughpoliciesmighthavecontributedtotherecidivism.

LewisThomas,theaward-winningmedicalessayist,observed,“Whenyouareconfrontedbyanycomplexsocialsystem...withthingsaboutitthatyou’redissatisfiedwithandanxioustofix,youcannotjuststepinandsetaboutfixingwithmuchhopeofhelping.Thisisoneofthesorediscouragementsofourtime.”2Hewentontosay,“Ifyouwanttofixsomethingyouarefirstobligedtounderstand...thewholesystem.”

DistinguishingConventionalfromSystemsThinkingWhatdoesitmeantounderstandthewholesystem?First,itmeansappreciatingasituationyouwanttochangethroughasystemicinsteadofaconventionallens.Ifyouthinkthatasystemslensistoosophisticatedandbeyondmostpeople’sreach,letmeassureyouthatitischild’splay.

Page 24: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Ifyouareaparent,rememberwhenyourchildrenwereyoung,andyoupickedupafterthem.Yourchildrenwouldlettheirclothespileuponthefloorandmoveontosomethingmoreinteresting.Eventually,afternumerousfailedattemptstohavethemputtheirclothesinthelaundry,youwouldgiveupandputthemthereyourself.Whenyourchildrenwouldcomeback,theclotheshaddisappeared—asifbymagic.“Thatworked!”theyconcluded.Nonlinearcauseandeffect,timedelay,success(fromtheirpointofview,notnecessarilyyours)—theseareallsignsofahighlycompetentsystemsthinker.

Conventionalorlinearthinkingworksforsimpleproblems,suchaswhenIcutmyhandandputonaBand-Aidtohelpthecutheal.Itisalsothebasisforhowmostofusweretaughtinschoolandstilltendtothink—dividetheworldintospecificdisciplinesandproblemsintotheircomponentsundertheassumptionthatwecanbestaddressthewholebyfocusingonandoptimizingtheparts.

However,conventionalthinkingisnotsuitedtoaddressthecomplex,chronicsocialandenvironmentalproblemsyouwanttosolve.Theseproblemsrequiresystemsthinking,whichdiffersfromconventionalthinkinginseveralimportantways,astable1.1shows.

Forexample,iftheproblemishomelessness,thenthesolutionisnotsimplyprovidingshelter.Providingtemporaryshelterisinsufficientsincepeopletendtocyclethroughshelters,thestreet,emergencyrooms,andjails.Moreover,itistooeasytoconcludethatwhenpeopleremainhomeless,theydonotwanttheirownplacetolive,wheninfactmanywantthesecuritythatcomeswithpermanenthousing.Inaddition,fundingshelterstendstoundermineboththepoliticalwillandfinancialresourcesrequiredtoendhomelessness.

TABLE1.1.CONVENTIONALVERSUSSYSTEMSTHINKING

Page 25: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Endinghomelessnessrequiresacomplex,long-termresponseinvolvingaffordablepermanenthousing,supportservicesforthechronicallyhomeless,andeconomicdevelopment.Thismeansestablishingnewrelationshipsamongthevariousproviderswhopreventhomelessness,thosewhohelppeoplecopewithbeinghomeless,andthosewhodevelopthepermanenthousingwithsupportservicesandjobsthatenablepeopletoendhomelessness.Aligningprovidersalongthiscontinuumofcaretowardagoalofaffordablepermanenthousingwithsupportservicesincreaseseveryone’sabilitytosolvetheproblem.

Theprinciplethatsolutionsthatworkintheshortrunoftenhavenegativelong-termeffects,aphenomenonknownasbetter-before-worsebehavior,hassignificantimplicationsforfundersandpolicymakers.Itraiseswhatfoundationscallthephilanthropicchallenge—thetaskofdetermininghowtofixaproblemnowversushelppeopleovertime.Italsochallengespublicpolicymakersandbusinessleaderstoeducatetheirconstituents(suchasprivatecitizensandfinancialinvestors)abouttherisksofalleviatingshort-termpressuresandfears

Page 26: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

withoutunderstandingthepotentialnegativeconsequencesofexpedientsolutions.Inaworldthatpromotesinstantgratification,itcanbedifficulttoremindpeoplethat“thereisnosuchthingasafreelunch.”

Thiscontrastingprincipleisknowninsystemstermsasworse-before-betterbehavior.Thismeansthatlong-termsuccessoftenrequiresshort-terminvestmentorsacrifice.Ifyouwanttomotivatepeopletoworktowardlong-termsuccess,thenyouasaleadermustactinaccordancewithyourownhighest,long-termaspirations.Theprinciplechallengesleadersto:

•Resistquickfixesthatactuallyunderminelong-termeffectiveness.•Setrealisticexpectationswiththepeopletheyserve.•Targetshort-termsuccessesthatdeliberatelysupportlong-termresultsandprovidepeoplewithtruehopeinsteadoffalsepromises.

RefiningtheDefinitionofSystemsThinkingAnotherusefuldistinctiontointroducehereisthedifferencebetweenasystemandsystemsthinking.Theaward-winningsystemsthinkerDonellaMeadowsdefinedasystemas“aninterconnectedsetofelementsthatiscoherentlyorganizedinawaythatachievessomething[italicsmine].”3Meadows’sdefinitionpointstothefactthatsystemsachieveapurpose—whichiswhytheyarestableandsodifficulttochange.However,thispurposeisoftennottheonewewantthesystemtoachieve.

Buildingonherdefinition,Idefinesystemsthinkingastheabilitytounderstandtheseinterconnectionsinsuchawayastoachieveadesiredpurpose.Oneofthebenefitsofsystemsthinkingisthatithelpspeopleunderstandthepurposethatasystemisaccomplishing.Thispromptsthemtoreflectonthedifferencebetweenwhattheysaytheywant(theirespousedpurpose)andwhattheyareactuallyproducing(theircurrentpurpose).Reconcilingthedifferencebetweenthesetwoisthesubjectofchapter9.

Asareaderyoumayhavecomeacrossdifferentschoolsofsystemsthinking,suchasgeneralsystemstheory,4complexitytheory,systemdynamics,humansystemdynamics,andlivingsystemstheory.Itishelpfultorecognizethat,whilealltheseschoolstendtoagreeonmostofthesystemsprinciplesdescribedin

Page 27: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

table1.1,theydifferinthemethodologiesusedtobothanalyzeasystemandidentifywaystoimproveit.

Thisbookisprimarilybasedontheconceptofcausalfeedbackloopsinsystems,andusesthecausalfeedbackloopdiagrammingtoolsfirstpopularizedinPeterSenge’smanagementclassicsTheFifthDisciplineandTheFifthDisciplineFieldbook.5Thesetoolscanbeintegratedwithotherkindsofsystemsanalysis,suchassystemdynamicsandsoftsystemsmethodology.

Iemphasizethefeedbacktoolsforseveralreasons.Asaco-founderwithCharlieKiefer,PeterSenge,andRobertFritzofInnovationAssociates,theconsultingfirmthatpioneeredmanyoftheideasreferredtoinPeter’sbook,Ihavethirty-fiveyearsofexperienceinworkingwiththesetools.Ihavealsoseenhowpowerfultheycanbeinachievingsustainable,breakthroughchangeinthenonprofit,public,andprivatesectors—aswellasincommunitiesthatengageleadersfromallthreesectors.Moreover,thetoolsarebroadlyrecognized(asevidencedbythepopularityoftheworkthatPeterandmanyothersamongourcolleagueshavedone)andreadilyunderstoodbyawiderangeofpeople.

Byintroducingsystemsthinkingas“theFifthDiscipline”ofcreatingalearningorganization,PeterSengeembeddedwhatmightotherwisebeapurelytechnicalandcognitivesetoftoolsintoabroadercontext.Thiscontextembracesmultipledimensions:

•Spiritual:Theabilitytoseeandarticulatewhatwillbenefitdiversepeopleovertime.•Emotional:Theabilitytomasterouremotionsinserviceofahigherpurpose.•Physical:Theabilitytobringpeopletogetherandenablethemtocollaborate.•Mental:Theabilitytorecognizehowourindividualandcollectivethinkingaffectstheresultswewant.

Thislastpointillustratesanothercriticalbenefitofthismethodology,whichisitsemphasisonresponsibilityandempowerment.Everyday,wecanlookaroundandseeunintendedconsequencesarisingfromwhatseemedatonetimetobebest-laidplans.Undoubtedly,whoevercastthoseplanshadthebestof

Page 28: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

intentions.Ajudgeincarceratingparentafterparentmighthavethoughthewasprotectingcitizens,butmaynothavefullyunderstoodhewasalsoexacerbatingproblemsforthechildrenleftbehind,andperpetuatingcriminalbehaviorovertime.Thedirectorofasheltermighthavethoughtthatshewasprotectinghomelesspeoplefromtheelements,butmaynothavefullyunderstoodthatsheltersdivertcriticalresourcesfromtheevenmorehumaneandsustainablesolutionofpermanentsupportivehousing.

Inotherwords,burdensareshifted,unexpectedresultssurface,andahostofothersystemsissuesarisefromgoodintentions.Foranycomplexproblemtobesolved,theindividualplayersallneedtorecognizehowtheyunwittinglycontributetoit.Oncetheyunderstandtheirownresponsibilityforaproblem,theycanbeginbychangingthepartofthesystemoverwhichtheyhavethegreatestcontrol:themselves.Aswe’llseeinthepagesahead,thegreatestopportunitiesforlastingchangearisewhenalltheplayersreflectonandshifttheirownintentions,assumptions,andbehavior.

ClosingtheLoop•People’sgoodintentionstoimprovesocialsystemsareoftenunderminedwhentheyapplyconventionalthinkingtochronic,complexsocialproblems.•Systemsthinkingisdifferentfromconventionalthinkinginseveralimportantways.•Asocialsystemisalwaysdesignedtoachieveapurpose,althoughitmightnotbethepurposepeoplesaytheywantittoaccomplish.•Thespecificapproachtoanalyzingacomplexsocialsystemthatisusedinthisbookhasmanyimportantbenefits,anditcanalsobeusedtocomplementotheranalyticmethods.

Page 29: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—CHAPTER2—

SystemsThinkingInside:ACatalystforSocialChange

Inthesummerof2011agroupofleadersrepresentingtheIowaDepartmentofEducation(IDE)andthestate’sregionalAreaEducationAgencies(AEAs)mettoimprovehowtheyworkedtogether.ThetwoorganizationshadhistoricallybeenfundedseparatelyandoperatedindependentlyeventhoughbothwereresponsibleforthequalityofK–12educationinthestate.Butnewchallengeshadarisen:Budgetconstraintshadamplified,andtestscoreshadfailedtokeeppacewithincreasesinthenationalaverage.Iowa’skidsneededabetter,moreintegratedsupportstructure,andthisdemandedthatthetwoorganizationspartnermoreclosely.Otherstatesfacesimilarchallenges:risingeducationalexpectations,tighterbudgets,andtensionsbetweenacentralorganizationthatpromotesstandardizedsystemsanddistrictsthatwanttopursueinnovationstailoredtotheirimmediateconstituents.

Forgingapartnershipisnoteasy,asdemonstratedbythemanyexamplesoffailedmergersinallsectors.However,inthecaseofIowaeducation,thenewpartnershipCollaboratingforIowa’sKidshasbeenhighlysuccessful.Bothorganizationsarenowoperatingwithasharedpurpose,vision,andsetofvalues;supportingajointlydevelopedtheoryofsuccess;workingtowardcommongoals;meetingmonthlyalongwithlocalschooldistricts;reviewingsharedmetrics;andachievingmeaningfulresults.Sincetheprogrambeganfouryearsago,ithasexpandedtoinclude80–100participants.Anoversightgroupkeepsstrategiesandinitiativesconnectedandassuresthatnewinitiativesaretruly

Page 30: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

collaborative.WorkgroupsincludingIDE,AEA,andlocalschooldistrictmembersdeveloppriorityinitiatives.Thelargergroupoperatesasalearningcommunity:reviewingdata,addressingunintendedconsequencesofimplementationactions,suggestingwaysthatimplementationcanbestrengthened,andreviewingplansofworkgroups.Anearlyliteracyinitiativehaspilotdistrictsthroughoutthestateusingcomprehensiveapproachesthatincludeprofessionaldevelopment,protocolsthatserveasguidesforstudents,schoolteamsplanningandmonitoringimplementationwithAEApartners,assessmentplans,coachesforK–3teachers,anddatacollectionandanalysis.

Whatenabledthispartnershiptodevelopwhensomanyothersfallshortofexpectations?Whiletherearemanyreasons,atleasttworelatetohowthetwogroupswereinitiallybroughttogether.Earlyon,theleadersofbothorganizationsbeganworkingwithKathleenZurcher,anexperiencedconsultantwhocontinuestosupporttheproject,todefinetheirsharedaspiration—whichisoneanchorofasystemsapproach.ThentheleadersappliedsystemsthinkingwithmetodeepentheirunderstandingofwhyitmightbedifficulttocollaboratedespitetheirsharedintentionstoimprovethelivesofIowa’skids.

Enablingthemtodevelopthisinsightwasfacilitatedbythefactthatmanychronic,complexproblemscanbeviewedthroughthelensofsystemsarchetypes—patternsofbehaviorthataresocommonwithinorganizations,theyhavepredictableconsequencesandwell-understoodsolutions.ThearchetypeplayingoutfortheseIowagroupswasclear:AccidentalAdversaries.Whileeachgrouphadbeenconceivedaspartofanoverallsystemwhoseactionswouldbenefitall,eachgrouphadcometofocusonitsindividualresponsibilitiesandsuccess.Intheprocesseachmadelifeharderfortheother,limitingthesuccessofbothgroupsandthesystemasawhole.Forinstance,theIDEhadintroducedmanynewprogramstoachieveitsgoalofprovidingguidanceandgovernancetothestateeducationsystem.However,theseprogramshaddisruptedtheAEAs’abilitiestomanagetheirownresources,whichledtheminturntoeithercustomizeordisengagefromtheIDEinitiatives,therebymakingIDE’sworkmoredifficult.

ThestoryofAccidentalAdversariesresonatedwithbothparties.Itmotivatedthemtohavenewconversationsabouthowtheycouldworkasaunifiedsystem

Page 31: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

tomaximizethebenefitsoftheirpartnershipandavoidtheunintentionalproblemstheyhadcreatedforeachother.ThepartiesagreedthattheroleoftheIDEwastosetdirectionandlead,andtheroleoftheAEAswastoimplement.Asaresult,IDEmovedfromblamingAEAsforoperatingindependentlytoworkingwiththemtomeetregionalneedswithinthestatewidecontext,andAEAsworkedtoadjusttheirindividualinitiativestofitwithinthestatewidedirectionandplans.Theyalsoagreedthatthelocalschooldistricts(formallyknownasLocalEducationAgenciesorLEAs)wereintegralandneededtobeincludedinthesystemwidealignmentwork.Andfinally,theycommittedtofocusingtheireffortsandresourcesonselectedpriorities—beginningwiththeearlyliteracyinitiative.

MarkDraper,thedirectorofspecialeducationfortheGreenHillsAEA,saidoftheinitialsystemsanalysismeeting.“ThishasbeenthemostconcreteandusefulconversationI’vehadontherelationshipbetweenourtwogroupsinthepast20years.”ConnieMaxson,whowasthebureauchiefofteachingandlearningservicesfortheDepartmentofEducation,said,“ThishasbeenthebestconversationI’vehadontherelationshipbetweenourtwogroupsinthesevenyearssinceI’vebeenhere.”TheirunderstandingoftheAccidentalAdversariesdynamichelpedbuildnotonlystrongerrelationshipsbetweentheIDEandAEAsystem,butalsoovertimebetweentheAEAsystemandindividualAEAs,thelocalschooldistrictsandtheIDE,andthelocalschooldistrictsandindividualAEAs.

HowSystemsThinkingMeetsFourChallengesofChangeHowdoessystemsthinkinghelppeopleachievesustainable,breakthroughchange?TheIowaeducationstory—andmanyothers—pointstowaysinwhichthinkingsystemicallymeetsfourcommonchallengesofchange.

First,systemsthinkingmotivatespeopletochangebecausetheydiscovertheirroleinexacerbatingtheproblemstheywanttosolve.Forexample,theIDEcametoseethatrollingoutnewprogramstotheAEAswithoutsufficientlytakingtheirneedsintoaccountledtheAEAstocustomizeordisengagefromtheseprograms,therebycreatinginconsistent,low-qualitysolutionsthatmadethe

Page 32: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

IDE’sownworkmoredifficult.Ontheotherside,theAEAsrecognizedthatcustomizingordisengagingfromstatewideprogramsledtheIDEtoinitiateevenmoreprogramsthatstretchedtheAEA’sownresources.

Second,systemsthinkingcatalyzescollaborationbecausepeoplelearnhowtheycollectivelycreatetheunsatisfyingresultstheyexperience.InthecaseofIowa,bothpartiescametoseethattheirlocalizedsolutionsunderminedtheirownorganization’seffectivenessandchildren’sabilitiestolearn.Theyrecognizedthattheywereinthesameboat,oneoftheirownmaking,andthatonlybyworkingtogethercouldtheydesignamoreseaworthycraft.Basedontheseinsights,theydevelopednewprinciplesandstructuresforpartneringovertimeandappliedsystemsthinkingagaintoorganizetheireffortsaroundacommontheoryofsuccess.

Third,systemsthinkingfocusespeopletoworkonafewkeycoordinatedchangesovertimetoachievesystemwideimpactsthataresignificantandsustainable.Thisapproachcontrastswithpeople’stendenciestotrytodotoomuchwithtoofewresourcesandachievelessasaresult.InIowa,theorganizationschosetotargetspecifichigh-leverageeducationaloutcomesbeginningwithearly-childhoodliteracybecauseofitspivotalroleinlong-termstudentperformance.

Fourth,systemsthinkingstimulatescontinuouslearning,whichisanessentialcharacteristicofanymeaningfulchangeincomplexsystems.Theinherentandever-changingcomplexityofsocialproblemsforcespeopletoacceptthatknowledgeisnevercompleteorstatic.Learningisamorepowerfulmind-setthanknowingbecauseitenablesustokeepadaptinginthefaceofnewinformationandconditions.1InIowa,theorganizationsputinplaceaprocessforassessingtheirprogressandadjustingtheirjointstrategiesovertime.

Table2.1summarizesthesefourchangechallengesandillustrateshowsystemsthinkingdiffersfromthemorecommonapproachestobringingdiversestakeholderstogetherinserviceofsocialchange.Whilemanytypicalapproacheshelppeoplerecognizetheirsharedaspirations,theyoftenfallshort,failingtoshowpeoplehowtheyareresponsibleforcurrentreality.

AsPeterSengeobservedinTheFifthDiscipline,“Thebuildingofsharedvisionlacksacriticalunderpinningifpracticedwithoutsystemsthinking.”He

Page 33: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

goesontosay,“Theproblemliesnotinsharedvisionsthemselves,solongastheyaredevelopedcarefully.Theproblemliesinourreactiveorientationtowardcurrentreality.Visionbecomesalivingforceonlywhenpeopletrulybelievetheycanshapetheirfuture.Thesimplefactisthatmostmanagersdonotexperiencethattheyarecontributingtocreatingtheircurrentreality.Sotheydon’tseehowtheycancontributetochangingthatreality.”2Whenpeoplefailtoseetheirresponsibilityforthepresent,they(1)tendtoassumethattheirprimaryworkistochangeothersorthesystem—notthemselves,and(2)promotesolutionsthatoptimizetheirpartofthesystembasedonamistakenbeliefthatthewaytooptimizethewholesystemistooptimizeeachoftheparts.Bycontrast,asystemsviewencouragesthemtocriticallyassesstheirowncontributionsfirst.

TABLE2.1.MEETINGTHECHALLENGESOFCHANGETHROUGHSYSTEMSTHINKING

WhentoUseSystemsThinking

Page 34: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Since1991Intelhasusedthemotto“IntelInside”toemphasizethatitschipspowercomputersaroundtheworld.Likethosechips,systemsthinkingpowerschangewithinmanyotherchangemanagementframeworks.Becauseitcanbeembeddedinmanydifferentmethodologies,includingtheonedescribedinthisbook,Ithinkofitas“SystemsThinkingInside.”

Itisespeciallyeffectivetoincorporatesystemsthinkingintoabroadersystemsapproachwhen:

☐Aproblemischronicandhasdefiedpeople’sbestintentionstosolveit.☐Diversestakeholdersfinditdifficulttoaligntheireffortsdespitesharedintentions.☐Theytrytooptimizetheirpartofthesystemwithoutunderstandingtheirimpactonthewhole.☐Stakeholders’short-termeffortsmightactuallyunderminetheirintentionstosolvetheproblem.☐Peopleareworkingonalargenumberofdisparateinitiativesatthesametime.☐Promotingparticularsolutions(suchasbestpractices)comesattheexpenseofengagingincontinuouslearning.

Systemsthinkingcanalsoplayaroleindefusingunintentionalconflictoroppositionamongstakeholders,asitdidintheCollaboratingforIowa’sKidscase.Whenconflictsrundeeperandthereislittlewillingnessonthepartofpeopletocollaboratewitheachotherbasedoneitheracommonconcernorsharedaspiration,suchasintheidentity-basedIsraeli–Palestinianconflict,systemsthinkingcanstillhelpthirdpartiesbetterunderstandtheunderlyingdynamicsandidentifypossibleinterventions.3

Thebroadersystemsapproachusedinthisbookwillbesummarizedinchapter5anddetailedinchapters6through10,butwewilladditionallyconsiderothersystemsapproachespeopleemploy,suchastheCollectiveImpactmodel,whichcanalsobenefitfrombuilding“SystemsThinkingInside.”

SystemsThinkingforCollectiveImpact

Page 35: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Oneofthemostacclaimedapproachesforlarge-scalesocialchangetoappearinrecentyearshasbeenCollectiveImpact,abroadcross-sectorcoordinationprocessintroducedbyJohnKaniaandMarkKramerintheirpioneeringStanfordSocialInnovationReviewarticlebythesamename.4Theapproachbringsnonprofits,businesses,governmentagencies,andthepublictogethertotacklecomplexproblems.Bydoingso,itsoriginatorsargue,itcountersatendencyforsocialchangetofocusontheisolatedinterventionsofindividualorganizations.KaniaandKramerdescribefiveconditionsforcollectivesuccessacrossdiversestakeholders:“acommonagenda,sharedmeasurementsystems,mutuallyreinforcingactivities,continuouscommunication,andbackbonesupportorganizations.”

Theimmensepopularityoftheirmodelhasalsoraisedconcernsaboutwhetheritcantrulydeliveronitspromises.Forexample,PaulSchmitz,theCEOofPublicAlliesandauthorofEveryoneLeads:BuildingLeadershipfromtheCommunityUp,identifiesthreeimportantareaswhereCollectiveImpactmaynotrealizeitsfullpotential:5

•Enablingleaderstoovercometendenciestotouttheirownsuccesses,andtobelessthanhonestaboutwhatisnotworkingandwhytheyneedhelpfromothersatthetable.•Encouragingorganizationsaccustomedtoseeinganissuefromtheirownpointofviewtothinkinamoreintegratedwayaboutproblemsandlong-termsolutions.•Engagingcommunitymembersasactiveleadersandserviceproviders.

SystemsthinkingcanhelpfacilitatorsofCollectiveImpactprocesses,aswellasthoseusingotherlarge-scalechangeapproaches,meetthefirsttwoofthesechallengesdirectly.Table2.2summarizesthebenefitsofusingsystemsthinkingwithintheCollectiveImpactprocess.

TABLE2.2.SYSTEMSTHINKINGFORCOLLECTIVEIMPACT

Page 36: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Let’swalkthroughthecollectivesuccessconditionsthetablementions.First,systemsthinkingsupportsmutuallyreinforcingactivities.Itbuildstrust

byaffirmingthateveryoneisdoingthebestwithwhattheyknowatthetime.Italsobuildsvulnerabilitybyhelpingpeoplerecognizethenegativeunintendedconsequencesoftheirwell-intentionedactionsonbothothersandthemselves.

Understandingtheseconsequencesenablespeopletoappreciatetheextentoftheirinterdependencewhilesimultaneouslymakingtheirindividual

Page 37: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

accountabilityforthecurrentsituationmoretransparent.Bysurfacingthedeepernatureofboththeirconnectednessandindividualimpacts,systemsthinkingincreasesthelikelihoodthatpeople’sactionswillinfactbemutuallysupportive.

Second,systemsthinkingsupportsthedevelopmentofacommonagendainfourways:

•Itprovidesasharedlanguageforcommunication.Thislanguage,whichisdescribedfurtherinthenexttwochapters,enablespeopletobetterappreciatethewaysinwhichtheyareconnectedinoftennon-obviouswaysandhowtimedelaysandunintendedconsequencesimpacttheirperformance.

•Itgeneratesacommonunderstandingofwhyaproblempersistsdespitepeople’sbesteffortstosolveit.Thisinsightcontrastswithanaturaltendencytosimplifyproblemsintermsofwhatothersarenotdoingandsolutionsintermsofwhatyoualreadydo.Whenyouuncovertherootcausesofachronic,complexproblem,youalsoestablishasolidbasisforidentifyinghigh-leverage,systemwidesolutions.

•Itraisesthedistinctionbetweenthedesiredpurposepeopleespouseandthepayoffsofthesystemasitiscurrentlyconfigured.Withoutunderstandingthisdistinction,stakeholderstooeasilyrallyaroundasharedaspirationwhiledownplayingthestrongincentiveseachofthemhastoperpetuatethestatusquo.Whenpeopleacknowledgeboththebenefitsofchangeaswellasthecasefordoingbusinessasusual,theirvisionisgroundedinreality,whichincludesanacknowledgmentofwhatislikelytomakechangepersonallydifficult.Inhis“IHaveaDream”speech,MartinLutherKingdevotedapproximately70percentofhistimetopaintingapictureofthedifficultrealityandonly30percenttodescribingthedream.

•Itenablesstakeholderstocreateasharedsystemictheoryofchange—aroadmapofhowtheywillintegratethecriticalsuccessfactorstheyhaveidentifiedovertimetobridgethegapbetweenwhattheywantandwheretheyare.Forexample,thecommunityleadersinaschooldistrictthatservedchildrenfrombothwealthyandpoorimmigrantfamilieswantedto

Page 38: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

realizeavisioninwhichallchildrenfeltlovedandsuccessful.Theyagreedonmorethanfifteencriticalsuccessfactors—includingsharedmeasuresandtheidentificationandendorsementofabackboneorganization.Theyalsoagreedonawaytointegratethesefactorsintoacoherentstrategytobridgethesuccessgap.(Forthespecificsoftheirplan,seechapter11.)

Third,systemsthinkinginformssharedmeasurement.AsSchmitzandotherspointout,itiseasytobeseducedbyshort-termdataandreadilymeasuredoutcomeseventhoughtheymightnotbeindicativeoflong-termgains.Bycontrast,systemsthinkingfocusesonbothqualitativeandquantitativedata,assessesprogressdifferentlyovermultipletimehorizons,looksforbothintendedandunintendedconsequences,andtracksperformanceinrelationtoexplicitandsystemictheoriesofchange.Selectingappropriateindicatorsalsoinvolvesaligninggoalsandmetricswiththeconsciouslychosen(ratherthandefacto)systempurpose.Forexample,endinghomelessnesscallsformetricsthatreducetheuseofshelterbedsovertimeinfavorofpermanenthousing.Bycontrast,conventionalmetricssupportusingavailablefundstomakemoreandmoreshelterbedsavailabletohelppeoplecopewithhomelessness.

Fourth,systemsthinkingincreasesthequalityandconsistencyofpeople’scontinuouscommunication,becausepeopletakeresponsibilityfortheimpactsoftheiractionsonthemselvesandothers,arealignedaroundacommonagendaasmodifiedabove,andunderstandhowtointerpretshort-termresultsinalong-termcontext.Inaddition,systemsthinkingemphasizestheneedforcontinuouslearningasthebasisforcontinuouscommunication.

ClosingtheLoop•Systemsthinkinghelpspeoplemeetfourchallengesofchange:Itincreasestheirmotivationtochange,catalyzescollaboration,enablesfocus,andstimulatescontinuouslearning.•Usesystemsthinkingforchronic,complexproblemswherediversestakeholdersfinditdifficulttoaligntheireffortsdespitesharedintentions.

Page 39: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Systemsthinkingcanbeusedwithindifferentchangemanagementmodels.Forexample,byhelpingpeoplebecomemorevulnerableandseethebigpicture,systemsthinkingsupportsfourconditionsforCollectiveImpact:developingmutuallyreinforcingactivities,buildingacommonagenda,determiningsharedmeasurement,andnurturingcontinuouscommunication.

Page 40: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—CHAPTER3—

TellingSystemsStories

InNovember2006,TheAfterPrisonInitiative(TAPI),aprogramoftheUSJusticeFundoftheOpenSocietyInstitute(OSI),convenedathree-dayretreatinAlbuquerque,NewMexico,toaccelerateprogressonendingmassincarcerationandharshpunishmentintheUnitedStates.1AptlynamedWhereAreWeGoing?,theretreatbroughttogetheronehundredprogressiveleaders—activists,academics,researchers,policyanalysts,andlawyers—toclarifywhatelsecouldbedonetofacilitatesuccessfulreentryofpeopleafterincarcerationandredresstheunderlyingeconomic,social,andpoliticalconditionsandpoliciesthatcontributetomakingtheUStheworld’slargestincarceratoramongdevelopednations.

Togiveyouanideaofthescopeoftheproblem,theUnitedStateshas2.5millionpeoplebehindbarstoday—versus200,000inthe1970s—andapproximately650,000returnhomeeachyear.ThemeetingwasgroundedinarecognitionofhowtheUScriminaljusticesystem—fromthebeginningandatanacceleratedpacesincethe1970s—isdeterminedbyrace,andhowsociety,inthewordsofBerkeleylawprofessorJonathanSimon,isincreasingly“governedbycrime.”2MostoftheparticipantsattheretreatwereSorosJusticeFellowsorOSIgranteeswhocompetedforOSIfundingatthesametimethattheysharedacommitmenttocriminaljusticereform.

Thechallengepresentedbythisandmanysimilarretreatswasthatthediversestakeholdersrequiredtosolveachronic,complexproblemoftendonotappreciatethemanyandoftennon-obviouswaysinwhichtheirworkisconnected.Takingthischallengeintoaccount,thegoalsofthemeetingwereto:

Page 41: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•DevelopasharedunderstandingofwhyUSincarcerationratesandratesatwhichpeoplereturntoprisonaresohigh.•Endover-incarceration;createnewopportunitiesforandremovebarrierstosuccessfulreentryofformerlyincarceratedpeople.•Strengthenworkingrelationshipsandcollaborationsamongtheadvocates.•Deepenawarenessoftheinterdependencies(bothreinforcingandpotentiallyconflicting)amongtheirdiverseefforts.•Identifynewwaystostrengthencivilsocietyinstitutionsandpromotecivicandpoliticalinclusion.

Perhapsthemostradicalnewtoolintroducedattheretreatwassystemsthinking.WorkingunderagrantsupportedbyOSI,theorganizersoftheretreat,JoeLaurandSaraSchleyofSeedSystems,recognizedthattacklingthesameproblemswiththesamemind-setandstrategiesoftenproducesthesame,largelyunsuccessful,results.Theybelievedthatsystemsthinkingmighthelppeopleinthefieldget“unstuck,”betterunderstandtheirtheoryofchange,anddevisenewstrategiesandwaysofcollaborating.

JoeandSaraaskedmetointroducesystemsthinkingandsystemsmappingtohelpparticipantscreateasharedstoryofwhymassincarcerationandhighrecidivismratespersisted,aswellastoidentifywhatmoretheycoulddotoreducetheserates.Thispictureneededtoincludethecontributionsofallparticipantstothesolution,anexplanationofwhytheirindependenteffortsfellshort,andinsightsintowhattheycoulddomoreeffectivelygivenlimitedresourcesandanurgentneedforchange.

StorytellingforSocialChangeTellingstoriesisapowerfulwaytomakesenseofourownexperienceandoftheworldaroundus.Storiesshapeouridentity,communicatewhoweareandwhatisimportanttous,andmoveotherstoact.Theyareaprimarywayofdistillingandcodinginformationinmemorableform.Leadersusethemtoinspireothers.Peacebuildersrecognizenarrativeasakeysourceofconflict(peopleinterprethistoricalfactsinverydifferentandincompatibleways),andtheyworktohelpdisputantsbothappreciateeachother’snarrativesandmodifytheirown.

Page 42: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Therapistsusestorytellingtohelppeoplehealfromtraumabysupportingthemtoshapeanewandmoreconstructivenarrativebasedonpastexperience.

Likewise,peoplecommittedtosocialchangeoftenshareasimilarstoryofwhattheyaretryingtoaccomplishandthechallengestheyface.Threekeyelementsofthisstoryare:

•Theworld,inthewordsofMartinBuber,“standsinneedofus,”andwearecalledtocontributeourgiftsandresourcestosupportthoselessfortunatethanourselves.•Wearenotmakingtheimpactwewantdespiteourbestintentions.•Themajorobstaclestooursuccessarelimitedresourcesandthebehaviorofothersinthesystem.

Whilethefirsttwoaspectsofthisstoryarehelpfulandmovepeopletoactinpositiveways,thebeliefthattheprimarycausesofproblemsarebeyondtheircontrolholdspeoplebackfrombeingasproductiveastheycouldbe.Byattributingshortfallstolimitedresourcesandassumingthatothersneedtobetheonestochange,peopletendtominimizetheimpactsoftheirownintentions,thinking,andactionsontheireffectiveness.3Moreover,becausemanyofthestakeholderscompeteforlimitedfunds,inthiscasefromTheAfterPrisonInitiative,theynaturallypromotetheirownsuccesses,downplaytheirfailures,andsometimesmaybereluctanttocollaborate.

Inordertooptimizetheperformanceoftheentiresystem,peopleneedtoshiftfromtryingtooptimizetheirpartofthesystemtoimprovingrelationshipsamongitsconstituentparts.InthecaseofUScriminaljustice,thebroadersystemincludeshowcrimeiscurrentlyfought,thenegativeunintendedconsequencesofthissystemstructure,andreformers’effortstomitigatetheseconsequencesandredesignthestructure.Peopleneedto:

•Understandhowfocusingontheirpartofthesystem—thegrantees’reformworkinthisexample—notonlysupportsbutmightalsolimittheeffectivenessofthewholesystem.•Appreciatethenon-obviousaswellasobviouswaysinwhichtheyareconnectedtooneanotherasreformersandtoothersinthesystem.

Page 43: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Recognizetheunintendedimpactsoftheirintentions,thinking,andactionsonbothothersandthemselves.•Applythisincreasedself-awarenesstoshiftinghowtheyrelatetoothersinthesystem.

Evenifpeople’scontributionstoanexistingsituationarenotobvious,itisimportant,inthewordsofJesseJackson,thattheytellthemselves,“Wemightnotberesponsibleforbeingdown,butweareresponsibleforgettingup.”Inotherwords,empoweringthemselvesthroughgreaterself-awarenessisthefirststepinchangingtheirreality.

Systemsthinkingcanhelppeopletellanewandmoreproductivestory.Ithonorstheirindividualeffortsandsurfacesthelimitationsoftheseefforts.Itdistinguishestheshort-andlong-termimpactsoftheiractions.Italignstheirdiverseviewsandstoriesintoabiggerpicturewhereindividualcontributorscanseetheirpartinrelationtothewhole.Seeingthebigpictureandtheirroleinit,peoplearemoremotivatedandabletoworktogethertoredesignthewhole.

ShapingaSystemsStoryInordertotellasystemsstory,peopleneedtomakethreeshifts:

•Fromseeingjusttheirpartofthesystemtoseeingmoreofthewholesystem—includingwhyandhowitcurrentlyoperatesaswellaswhatisbeingdonetochangeit.•Fromhopingthatotherswillchangetoseeinghowtheycanfirstchangethemselves.•Fromfocusingonindividualevents(crises,fires)tounderstandingandredesigningthedeepersystemstructuresthatgiverisetotheseevents.

SEEINGTHEBIGPICTURE

TheancientSufistoryoftheblindmenandtheelephantillustratesthechallengeofenablingdiversestakeholderstoseethebigpicture(seefigure3.1).Eachpartytouchesadifferentpartoftheelephantandtendstoassumethatwhattheyexperienceistheelephantinsteadofjustonepartofamorecomplexreality.

Page 44: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Moreover,theytendtoseerealityintermsofwhattheyaredoingwell,arerewardedfordoing,andcoulddobetteriftheyhadmoreresources.Ontheotherhand,peopleeitherfailtoappreciateorquestionthevalueofothers’contributions.Inaddition,theyoftendonothavethetoolstoseeamorecomplexworldandunderstandhowtheirintentions,thinking,andactionsinteractwiththoseofotherstakeholders.

FIGURE3.1THEBLINDMENANDTHEELEPHANT.Everyoneseespartofamorecomplexrealityandtendstoassumethatwhattheyseeisthewholepicture.SamGross/TheCartoonBank

IntheTAPIcase,participantsnaturallybeganbyseeingsolutionstotheproblemofover-incarcerationandfailedreentrythroughtheirrespectivespecialties.Somefocusedonsentencingreformtoreducethelengthofsentencesandtimeserved,ortheinstitutionalworkofresettlementandsupportiveservices,orreorientingparoleandprobationpolicies.Othersfocusedon

Page 45: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

challengingtheprisonlobbythatbenefitsfromcurrentpenallaws,orreducingtheresistanceofpublicofficialstomoreeffectiveandinnovativeapproachestoreentry.Stillothersfocusedonconvincingelectedofficialsthattough-on-crimelawsmakeforgoodpoliticsbutbadpolicy.Theyenteredthegroupthroughtheirownsilos.Thechallengewastohelpthemexpandtheirperceptionsbyappreciatinghowtheirsuccessdependedonthesuccessofalltheotherstakeholders(includingthosenotpresentatthemeeting),andthenmotivatingthemtocollaboratemoreeffectivelywithoneanother(againincludingthosenotintheroom)toimprovepublicsafetyincost-effectiveandsustainableways.

Thefirststepwastocreateastrongandsafecontainerforpeopletosharetheirdifferentperspectives.ThisiswhatIcallconveningpeoplesystemically,andwhatMarvinWeisbordoriginallycalled“gettingthewholesystemintheroom.”4Inthiscasethesystemwasrepresentedinpersonbythosecommittedtocriminaljusticereform,whiletheperspectivesoftough-on-crimeadvocatesweredepictedonthesystemsmapthatincludedtheirpolicies,assumptions,andactions.Thefacilitators,JoeandSara,builtacontainerfortheretreatparticipantsbybuildingdiversewaysofcommunicatingintotheagenda,including:expertpresentations,panelsaroundspecificissues,reportsoninnovationsbeingtestedbyseveralparticipants,dialogues,aWorldCafé(seemoreonthisandotherconveningmethodologiesinchapter5),andsystemsmapping.

Theyincorporatedsystemsmappingbecausetheyrecognizedthatconveningpeoplesystemicallyisnecessarybutnotalwayssufficienttomobilizingcollaboration.Thisistrueforseveralreasons:

•Evenwhenpeoplesharecommonvaluesandgoals,asthoseintheTAPImeetingdid,theytendtoassumethatthebestwaytooptimizethesystemistooptimizetheirindividualpart.Thisassumptionisoftenreinforcedbymetricsandrewardsthatencouragepeopletodowhattheyarealreadydoing.

•Bycontrast,participantsmighteitherfailtoappreciateoractuallyblame(howevercovertly)othersintheroomfortheirinabilitytobeevenmoreeffective.

Page 46: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Somestakeholdersarenotincludedinsuchgatheringsbecausetheydonotappeartosharethesameaspiration,areviewedasthesourceoftheproblem,and/oraremoredifficulttoaccessbytheconveners.Inthiscaseaffirmingaunitedfrontamongtheparticipantscanmisleadthemintothinkingthattheyaredoingthebesttheycanandothersnotintheroomaretoblame.WhilemanyTAPIparticipantswereengagedincollaborativeeffortswiththosenotpresentatthemeeting,itwasimportanttoreaffirmthisstrategyandavoidtheriskofattributingbreakdownsinthesystemsolelytootherstakeholders.

Bycontrast,oneofthepremisesofsystemsthinkingasdescribedinchapter1isthatthebestwaytooptimizethesystemistoimprovetherelationshipsamongitsparts,nottooptimizeeachpartseparately.Thisincludesthosepresentinaparticulargatheringandthosewhodonotparticipate,thosewhosupportchangeandthosewhoresistit.Helpingpeoplewhoareconveningsystemicallytoalsothinksystemicallyenablesthemtoconsidercollaboratingwithallstakeholdersasafirst,thoughnotnecessarilytheonly,option.Asystemsmapenablesindividualstakeholdergroupstoseehowtheycontributetotheperformanceofthesystemasawhole,bothpositivelyandnegatively.

ForTAPIparticipants,oneofthekeyinsightsfromthesystemsmap(whichisdetailedinchapter7)wasthattheunderlyingconcernofthepublicanditselectedrepresentativeshadmoretodowiththefearofbeingvictimizedbycrimeandracismthanactualcrimelevelsthemselves.Althoughcrimelevelshaveactuallydeclinedsince1991byapproximately25percent,people’sfearsofbeingvictimizedbyviolentcrimecontinuetorise—asdoestheperceptionthatcrimesaremorelikelytobecommittedbypeopleofcolor,whichinturncausesrace-associatedfeartorise.Eventhoughthecriminaljusticesystemconsumesenormoustaxdollars,publicofficialswhopromotemassincarcerationoftenfanfeardeliberatelytowinvotesordosounwittinglybyresistingeffortstoamelioratethisfear.Forexample,theyresistinnovativeapproachestoresettlingformerlyincarceratedpeople(approachesthatcouldreducerecidivism)andfailtodistinguishtechnicalfromsubstantiveparoleviolationsoutoftheirownfearofappearingsoftoncrime.ThisinsightledtheTAPIparticipantstothinkofnew

Page 47: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

waysofcollaboratingwithoneanotheraswellasextendingthemselvestoreducethefearsofwell-intentionedpublicofficialsandconcernedcitizenswhowerenotatthemeeting.

INCREASINGSELF-AWARENESSANDPERSONALRESPONSIBILITY

Thenaturaltendencytoviewone’sowncontributionsfavorablyinrelationtothoseofothersisintensifiedbycompetition.Peoplewithasharedaspirationoftencompeteforresources,whichincreasestheirreluctancetoeitheracknowledgetheirownshortcomingsorvaluethecontributionsofothers.

Bycontrast,asystemsstoryuncovershowpeoplecontribute,albeitunwittingly,totheirownproblemsdespitetheirbestintentions.Raisingself-awarenessinthiswayactuallyincreasestheirabilitiestobemoreeffective.Ratherthandependingonotherstochangeinordertobesuccessful,theydiscoverthatthegreatestleveragetheyhaveinasystembeginswithchangingthemselves.Theylearntorecognizethattakingresponsibilityfortheirownintentions,thinking,andbehaviorgivesthemmorepowertocreatewhattheywant.

SomeTAPIparticipantsbecamemoremotivatedtoinitiatecollaborationswithothersintheroomwhentheyunderstoodthekeywaysinwhichtheywereinterconnected.Severalalsorecognizedthatframingcriminaljusticereformasawaytohelpelectedofficialsgeneratevotesbyreducingprisoncostsandrecidivismcouldbenefitthereformmovement.

UNDERSTANDINGTHEDEEPERSYSTEMSTRUCTURE

Onetoolfordevelopinganinitialpictureof“theelephant”(thatis,anycomplexsystem)isknownastheicebergmetaphor.Theicebergisasimplewayofdistinguishingproblemsymptomsfromunderlyingorrootcauses.Asshowninfigure3.2,itdistinguishesthreelevelsofinsight—eachofwhichisinformedbyaspecificquestionandpromptsacertaintypeofactionorresponse.

Page 48: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Morespecifically,theicebergdistinguishestheeventslevel(whatweseemosteasily)fromthepatternofbehaviorortrendthatlinksmanyeventsovertime,andthengoesdeepertoexposetheunderlyingsystemsstructure—thehidden90percentoftheicebergthatcausesthemostdamagebecauseitshapesthetrendsandevents.Systemsstructureincludestangibleelementssuchasthepressures,policies,andpowerdynamicsthatshapeperformance.Italsoincludesintangibleforcessuchasperceptions(whatpeoplebelieveorassumetobetrueaboutthesystem)andpurpose(theactualversusespousedintentionsthatdrivepeople’sbehavior).Thedeeperpeople’slevelofinsight,thegreatertheiropportunitytochangethewaythesystembehaves.

Peopleoftenfocustheirattentionandspendmostoftheirtimeonrespondingtoindividualevents.Theywanttoknowwhatishappeningsothattheycanreactquicklytothecrisisathand.Forexample,peoplewhosupport(andoppose)criminaljusticereformlookatnewsreportsonthelatestcrimestatistics,thenumberofpeoplerecentlyreturnedtoprisonbecauseofrepeatoffensesortechnicalparoleviolations,newlegislation,andcostsoftheprisonsystem.Howpeoplerespondtoacrisiscanhaveanenormousimpactontheireffectiveness.Since95percentofpeoplesenttoprisonareeventuallyreleased,andmanyofthemareunpreparedorunabletoresettleproductively,get-toughprisonsentencesoftenincreaserecidivism—furtherdestabilizingcommunitiesandmakingthemlesssafe.Moreover,thecostsincurredinmaintainingthesystemdivertfundsthatmightotherwisebeavailabletostrengthenthedisadvantagedcommunitiesfromwhichadisproportionatenumberofresidentsareincarcerated.

Page 49: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE3.2THEICEBERG.Theiceberghelpsyoutobegintodistinguishaproblem’ssymptomsfromitsrootcauses.InnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearning

Sometimespeoplestepbackfromindividualeventslongenoughtorecognizeongoingtrendsorpatterns.Theyaskwhathasbeenhappeningovertimeandtrytoanticipatethefuturebasedonthepast.Trendscanoftenbesurprisinganddisturbing.Forexample,TAPIparticipantsnotedthatincarcerationlevelscontinuedtorisebyanestimated60percentsincecrimelevelsreachedtheirpeakin1991,despiteareductionof25percentincrimeduringthesameperiod

Page 50: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

(seefigure3.3).Thisledthemtoconcludethatfear,aswellasracism,drivescurrentcriminaljusticepoliciesmorethanthelevelofcrimeitself.Somecriminologistsbelievethatnomorethan25percentofcrimereductionisattributabletoincarceration.5Othersarguethatthesametrenddataprovethebeneficialimpactofincarcerationonreducingcrime,whichpointstotheimportanceofperceptionsormentalmodelsasanotheraspectofsystemsstructuretobeexploredbelow.6

Therootcausesofachronic,complexproblemcanbefoundinitsunderlyingsystemsstructure—themanycircular,interdependent,andsometimestime-delayedrelationshipsamongitsparts.Thestructureincludesbotheasilyobservableelements—suchascurrentpressures,policies,andpowerdynamics—andlessobviousfactorssuchasperceptionsandpurposes(goalsorintentions)thatinfluencehowthemoretangibleelementsaffectbehavior.

FIGURE3.3USCRIMEVERSUSINCARCERATIONRATES.Thegrowinggapbetweenanincreasingincarcerationrateanddecreasingcrimerateraisesseriousquestionsabouttherelationshipbetweenthetwo.CrimeratetrendadaptedfromDisasterCenter.com.IncarcerationratetrendadaptedfromTheHamiltonProject,BrookingsInstitution.

TheElementsofSystemsStructurePeoplecommunicatewithoneanotherthroughlanguageandoftenthroughthe

Page 51: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

storiestheytell.MichaelGoodman,oneofthepioneersoftheapproachusedinthisbookandalongtimecolleagueofmine,explainsthatsystemsthinkingcanbethoughtofasalanguage—avisuallanguagethathelpsusunderstandandtalkabouttheworldinawaythatisdifferentfromourdailylanguage.Themetaphoroflanguageisimportantbecauselanguageshapesourperceptions,andhenceourbehavior.Therootofthemagicalincantationabracadabrarelatesthepowersofspeechandaction,asitcomesfromeithertheAramaic“IwillcreateasIspeak”ortheHebrew“Itcametopassasitwasspoken.”7Ineithercase,systemsthinkingisalanguagethatmoreaccuratelyexplainscomplexitythanoureverydaylanguageandthusenablesustoworkmoreeffectivelywithsocialsystems.

Themostbasicelementsofthislanguagearenouns,verbs,andadverbs(timedelays).Inaddition,whenwelookmoredeeplyintosocialsystems,wediscoverthattherearecertainplotlinesthatappearacrossawidevarietyofissues(whetherineducation,criminaljustice,orhomelessness)andatmultiplelevelsofasystem(forexample,inhomes,organizations,orcommunities).

Themostbasicplotlinesarestoriesofamplification(calledreinforcingfeedback)andcorrection(calledbalancingfeedback).Thesecombineintomorecomplexyethighlyrecognizablearchetypalstoriesbecausetheyaresoembeddedinthehumanexperience.Knowingthebasicstoriesandsystemsarchetypesgivesusinitialinsightsintomanychronic,complexproblems.Developingaricherandmorecomprehensiveunderstandingoftencomesfrommodifyingandcombiningarchetypes—whichissimilartoilluminatingthevariationsonplotsandmultipleinteractingplotsinahistoricalorfictionalstory.

Finally,wewilllookatthebottomoftheicebergtouncoverwhataredescribedincomplexitytheoryasattractors,thepullsthatshapeandstabilizeasystem’sbehavioraroundalimitednumberofpossiblestates.Thesedeepstructuresarethebeliefsorassumptionsthatpeopleinsocialsystemstrytovalidate,andtheunderlyingintentionsorpurposestheyseektorealize.Dependingonyourassessmentofthesystem’scurrentperformance,theycanbeviewedaseitherpositiveornegative.Attractorsaretheunderlyingdriversofbothsystemequilibriumanditsresistancetochange.

Page 52: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

BASICLANGUAGEOFSYSTEMSTHINKINGNouns

Thenounsofsystemsthinkingarevariables,thoseforcesorpressuresatplayinthesystem.Variables“vary”overtime;theycanincrease,decrease,oroscillate.Variablescanbequalitativeorquantitativeandarereadilyframedas“Levelsof___.”CommonvariablesthatMichaelGoodmanandIhaveidentifiedincludewhatpeoplevalue(suchasthelevelofexpectationorgoal),demandsonthesystem(suchasthelevelofneedorpressure),resourcestomeetthesedemands(suchasthelevelofinvestmentorskills),andactualresults(suchasthelevelofperformanceoreffectiveness).Theyalsoincludeperceptualfactorsthatexpresshowpeoplefeelandthink(suchastheleveloffearoraversiontorisk).

Sincevariablesarethebasisforsystemsstories,definingthemisakeytask.8

Significantinsightscanemergefromclarifyingwhattheyare—andwhattheyarenot.Forexample,abreakthroughinsightfortheTAPIparticipantswasthatthefearofbeingvictimizedbycrimecandrivebehaviorinthecriminaljusticesystemmorethanthelevelofcrimeitself.Inaverydifferentsituation—theefforttorebuildcivilsocietyinBurundiafterits1990–94civilwar—NGOsthatdevelopedasystemsanalysisoftheconflictdeterminedthatthedrivingfactorinthewarwasnottheresourcesoftheTutsisversusthoseoftheHutus,astheyoriginallythought,butthepoweroftheeliteversusthatofthemajority.Theydeterminedthisbyrecognizingthat,whenHutuswrestedpowerfromtheTutsis,Hutuleadersbecamethenewelite.Inotherwords,Hutuleadersdisplayedthesametendencytoaccumulateresourcesattheexpenseofthemajorityofthepopulation,justasTutsileadershadpreviouslyfoughttoretaintheirpower.Thisinsightledthemtorecognizetheimportanceofanotherfactor,ethnicmanipulation,usedbyelitesofbothgroupstogainandretainpowerattheexpenseoftheirconstituents.9

SomeoftheotherkeyvariablesintheTAPIcasewere:numberofpeoplereleasedfromprison,problemswithresettlement,technicalparoleviolations,sectorsbenefitingfromthecurrentsystem,costofprisons,and(lackof)money

Page 53: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

availableforresettlement.Otherqualitativefactorsincludedfearforpersonalsafety,politicalrisks,andpoliticalresistancetoinnovation.Verbs

Thefundamentalactiondescribedinsystemsthinkingisthatanincreaseinonevariablecausesanincreaseordecreaseinoneormoreothervariables.Thisactionisdescribedpictoriallyasfollows:

A→B

WhenachangeinAcausesasimilarchangeinB(forinstance,anincreaseinAcausesanincreaseinB,oradecreaseinAcausesadecreaseinB),wecanputansfor“similar”attheendofthearrow.

A→sB

Alternatively,ifachangeinAcausesanoppositechangeinB(anincreaseinAcausesadecreaseinBorviceversa),wecanputanofor“opposite”attheendofthearrow.10

A→oB

Whilethisnomenclatureishelpfulinbuildingthestory,wenormallyleaveitoutofthefinalpicturesandinsteadexplainthecausaldirectionsverballyonasystemsmapusingdescriptivewords.Thishelpspeopleunfamiliarwithsystemsthinkingtounderstandthediagrams.TimeDelay

HowlongittakesforachangeinAtocauseachangeinBisacriticalfactorinsystemsthinking.Thisisbecause,asnotedinchapter1,theshort-andlong-termimpactsofthesameactionareoftenreversed.Inotherwords,short-termimprovementscanproducelong-termconsequencesthatneutralizeorunderminemoreimmediategains.Conversely,weoftenneedtoinvesttime,money,andeffortintheshortruntoachievebenefitsthataresustainableovertime.Timedelaysaredepictedasfollows:

A–|-|→B

Page 54: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

MichaelGoodmanandIhaveidentifiedatleastfourtypesofdelaysincomplexsocialsystems.Thesearethetimesbetween:

•Thechangeinaconditionandourawarenessthattheconditionhaschanged.•Ourawarenessthattheconditionhaschangedandourdecisiontoact.•Thedecisiontoactandtheactofimplementation.•Implementationandacorrespondingchangeinthecondition.

Forexample,acurrentandincreasinglyseriousexampleisclimatechange.Althoughcarbondioxidelevelsintheatmospherehaveincreasedbymorethan45percentinthepasttwohundredyears,itisonlyrecentlythatmostpeoplehavebeenmadeawareofthedangeroftheseincreasesthroughturbulentweatherpatternsandrisingsealevels.Moreover,becauseofourdependenceonenergy-intensivelifestylesandcarbonfuels,ithasbeendifficulttomobilizethepoliticalwilltocommittonewenergypolicies.Assumingwecannowmakeharddecisions,itwillstilltakemanyyearstoshifthowweconserveenergyandmanufactureitfromenvironmentallyneutralsources.Onceweimplementthesechanges,itwilltakeadditionaltimetoreducecarbondioxidelevelstonecessarylevels,thoughitmayalreadybetoolatetoreversesomechangessuchasrisingsealevelsfrommeltingicebergs.

GoingbacktotheTAPIexample,thereareatleastfoursignificanttimedelaysrelatedtothepenalsystemandcriminaljusticereform:

•Thetimebetweenwhenpeoplegotoprisonandarereleased—thatis,thelengthofsentencesandtimespentinprison.Becausemanysentenceshavebecomeharsher,itcantakemanyyearsbeforepeoplereentersociety.The95percentofprisonerswhoareeventuallyreleasedoftenfaceseriousbarrierstoreentry,createdinpartbytheverylengthoftheirconfinement.

•Thedelaybetweenthepublic’sfearofcrimeandtheirunderstandingthatcrimehasinfactdeclined.

•Adelaybetweenthenumberofpeopleincarceratedandconcernsaboutthecostsofthepenalsystem.IntheyearssincetheTAPIretreattook

Page 55: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

place,thesecostshavebecomeevenmoreofastrainonpublicbudgets,reachinganall-timehighofeighty-fivebilliondollarsayear,andmotivatingofficialstoseriouslyconsiderreformstoincarceration.

•Thedelaybetweenrecognizingthecostlylimitationsofmassincarcerationandactuallyshiftingfundstothemorepromisinginvestmentofstrengtheningcommunityinstitutions—suchaseducation,healthcare,andemployment—thatcreatesafer,moreprosperouscommunities.

Becauseofthepressuretoshowimmediateresults—whetherself-generatedorcreatedbysuchfactorsaspublicopinion,budgetcycles,investorexpectations,andvotingcycles—itcanbedifficultforpolicymakerstorespectandworkwithtimedelays.Leaderscanrespondmoreeffectivelytothispressurewhentheylearntodistinguishquickfixesfromshort-termsmallsuccesses.Quickfixesaresolutionsthatproduceshort-runbenefits,whicharetypicallyneutralizedorerodedbylonger-runconsequencesofthesameactions.Short-termsmallsuccessesareimprovementsthatareplannedfromthebeginningwiththelongterminmindandarevitaltoencouragingpersistenceandmaintainingmomentum.Thisdistinctionwillbecomeclearerwhenwelookatleveragepointsandstrategicplanningingreaterdetail,butthesebasicswillhelpaswefurtherexploresystemsplots.

ClosingtheLoop•Whenfacedwithacomplexproblemthatpersistsdespitetheirbesteffortstosolveit,peopletendtoblamelimitedresourcesaswellaspromotetheirownsuccesses,downplaytheirfailures,andviewothersinthesystemcompetitively.•Systemsthinkinghelpspeopletellanewandmoreproductivestorythathonorstheirindividualefforts,surfacesthelimitationsoftheseefforts,andsupportsthemtoseethebigpictureandcollaboratemorewillinglyonbehalfofthewhole.•Theicebergmetaphorenablespeopletodistinguishbetweenmoreobviouseventsandtrends,andtheunderlyingsystemsstructurethatshapesthem.

Page 56: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Systemsstructuredescribeskeyfactorsinthesystemandhowtheyaffectoneanotherinoftennon-obviouswaysovertime.

Page 57: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—CHAPTER4—

DecipheringthePlotsofSystemsStories

Ilovemurdermysteries,firstmadefamousbyBritishwriterssuchasAgathaChristieandastapleofpopularTVshowslikethelong-runningCSI.Theessentialquestiontheyposeis“Whodoneit?”andthereader/vieweriskeptinsuspenseuntiltheveryendinthehopeofansweringthatquestion.Systemsstoriesaredrivenbyadifferentquestion:“Whyarepeopleunabletosolveachronic,complexproblemorachieveameaningfulgoal—oftendespitetheirbestefforts?”Inordertoanswerthisquestion,ithelpstorecognizediscernibleplotlinesthattendtoshapethebehaviorofpeopleinsocialsystems.

Manyoftheseplotsshareasimilarandchallengingcharacteristic.Socialsystemsarenotonlysurprisingbutalso,inthewordsofsystemsthinkerDonellaMeadows,“perverse.”1Ithinkofthemasseductiveinthattheytendtoleadpeopletodoexactlythewrongthingforalltherightreasons.

Becausetheseplotsaresocommon,theyarecalledsystemsarchetypes.Thebetterpeopleunderstandthem,thelesslikelytheyaretobecomevictimizedbythem.Peoplecanlearntoanticipateandpreventthesestoriesfromseducingthemintodoingthewrongthing.Alternatively,ifpeopledobecometrapped,theycanfollowequallyrecognizablepaths(knownasleveragepoints)toextricatethemselves.

BasicPlotLines

Page 58: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Severalyearsago,aparticipantinasystemsthinkingworkshopanalyzedaproblemhehadtriedtosolveforalongtime.Hesaid,“AndtothinkthatIhavebeengoingaroundincirclesonthisissueforyears.”AtthatmomentIrealizedthattheproblemwasnotsomuchthathehadbeen“goingaroundincircles,”butthathewasunawarethathewasdoingso.Thesolutionshehadtriedpreviouslywereobviousandeffectiveintheshortterm.However,theyhadcreatedunintendedconsequencesinthelongtermthatmademattersworse.Moreover,whentheproblemrecurred,hefailedtoseehowhisownsolutionscontributedtoit.Seeingthecirclesthathewasnotonlyembeddedinbutalsohelpedcreatefreedhimtobreakoutofthemandidentifyamoreproductivepathforward.Wegoaroundincirclesofourownmakingwithoutrealizingit.

Sincesystemsplotsunfoldincircles,ourgoalistouncovertheexistingonessothatwecancreatenewandmoreeffectivestories.Whiletheemphasisinthischapterisondescribingthedynamics—notshiftingthem,atopicthatismorefullyaddressedinchapter10—itisimportanttorealizethattheactofrecognizingthecirclesyouarecaughtinisthefirststeptowardalteringthem.Increasingself-awarenessisaninterventioninandofitself,andtheprecursortomakinganyotherchanges.

Reinforcingandbalancingfeedbackarethetwobasiccircularstructuresthatdescribehowsystemsevolveovertime.Morecomplexdynamicsresultfromcombinationsofthesetwofeedbackstructures.

REINFORCINGFEEDBACK:THESTORYOFAMPLIFICATION

Reinforcingfeedbackisthebasisforwhatweknowasvirtuousandviciouscycles.Itexplainsthedevelopmentofbothenginesofgrowthorflywheelsaswellasspiralingdeterioration.Forexample,JimCollinshasappliedtheflywheelconceptheintroducedinhisbookGoodtoGreattosuggesthowsocialsectororganizationscandeveloptheirownenginesofsuccess.2Hebelievesthatsuccessinthesocialsectorhingesontheabilitytogroworganizations(notjustprograms)bybuildingabrandthatattractssupport,whichyieldsdemonstrableresultsandinturnstrengthensthebrand.Collinsalsopointsoutthatthesamereinforcingdynamiccanproducetheoppositeeffect,aswhenanorganization

Page 59: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

thatperformspoorlyweakensitsbrandreputation,whichmakesitmoredifficulttoattractresourcesanddrivesresultsdownevenfurther.

Theunstablenatureofreinforcingfeedbackispainfullyevidentinboom-and-bustcyclessuchasthehousingbubblethatsetoffthe2008economiccrisis.Inthiscase,unsafesubprimemortgagelendingpracticesfueledincreasedhousingpricesandmorelending—untilthebadmortgagescouldnolongerbespreadfartherandthehousingmarketcollapsed.3

Reinforcingdynamicsalsoappearinself-fulfillingprophecies.Forexample,thePygmalioneffectexplainshowoneparty’sexpectations(inthiscase,ateacher’s)leadanotherparty(astudent)tobehaveinwaysthatreinforcetheseexpectations.Thisdynamictendstoencouragetheperformanceofwell-behavedgirlsandworkagainstactiveboysandminorities.TheInteractionMapdevelopedbyActionDesignandshowninfigure4.1describestheseinteractionsingreaterdetail.

Page 60: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE4.1INTERACTIONMAP.HowpartiesAandBthinkaboutandbehaveinrelationtoeachotherismutuallyreinforcing.AdaptedfromActionDesign

Mostpeopleareaccustomedtothinkingofgrowthaslinear.However,reinforcingfeedbackdescribesamorecommonprocessinsocialandeconomicsystems—thatofexponentialgrowthinwhichaquantityincreasesbyaconstantpercentageofthewholeinaconstanttimeperiod.Suchphenomenaasincreasesinsavingsandpopulationarefamiliarillustrationsofexponentialprocesses.Foundationsandentrepreneursseekingalong-termreturnontheirsocialinvestmentsbenefitfromcultivatingcriticalmassortippingpointsthatbuildsustainablemomentuminasocialsystem.4

ThefollowingFrenchriddlepointsoutseveralimportantimplicationsofexponentialgrowth.5Imaginealilypondwherethelilyplantdoublesinsizeeveryday,andthepondistotallycoveredbythelilyinthirtydays.Whenisthe

Page 61: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

pondhalfcovered?Theanswer,whichissurprisingformany,isdaytwenty-nine:Halfofthepondiscoveredjustonedaybeforethepondiscompletelyblanketedbythelily.Howmuchofthepondiscoveredinfifteendays?Theanswerhereis0.0025percent.Inotherwords,halfwayintothemonththelilyisbarelynoticeable.

Theexponentialnatureoforganicgrowthhasseveralconsequencesforsocialdecisionmakers.First,mostpeopletendtoexpecttoseeimprovementsfasterthantheyarecapableofdeveloping.Expectingthesystemtoshiftquicklycanleadtounrealisticdemandsforgrowththatultimatelyslowimprovementdownifnotkillitentirely.Alternatively,peoplecanmissormisinterpretsmallimprovementsandgiveupprematurelyonsupportingachangethattakestimetomanifest.Figure4.2depictstheexponentialnatureoforganicreinforcinggrowthandcontrastsitwiththemoretypicallinearassumptionpeopleholdabouthowthingsshouldgrow.

Second,asuccessengineorflywheelisbuiltnotonlyontheindividualfactorsthatcontributetogrowth,butalsoonhowthesefactorsinteracttoreinforceoneanotherovertime.Forexample,successfulmicro-lendingprogramsintegratecommunityinvolvement,peersupport,financialinvestment,economicresults,jobcreation,andcommunityreinvestmentinever-expandingspirals.Animplicationforsocialinvestorsmightbethattheyevaluategranteeplansbasedontheclarityandsoundnessoftheirstructuraldesign—howthepartsfittogether—ratherthanontheindividualelementsthemselves.Wewillreturntohowsystemsthinkingcancontributetoarticulatingsuchadesignortheoryofchangeinchapter11.Fornowitcanbehelpfultonoticethatoneapproachtoincreasingtheeffectivenessofatheoryofchangeistoexplainhowpartsofthesystemareintendedtointeractinbothdirectandindirectwaysovertime.

Third,sinceexponentialgrowthalsoappliestoseeminglytrivialproblemsgettingmuchworseovertime,itisimportanttomonitorsuchproblemsearlyonandconsideraddressingthemrapidlyinsteadofhopingtheygoaway.Decadesago,therecognitionthatsmallproblemsfuelbiggeronesinspiredwhat’sknownasthebrokenwindowstheory,whichsuggeststhatcommunityinstabilityiscatalyzedbydisorderlyconditions.6Thetheoryhasledpolicedepartments

Page 62: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

aroundthecountrytocontrolminormisbehaviors—fromlitteringtovandalism—andmaintainacleanenvironmentinordertopreventmajorcrimesfromoccurring.7Criticsofthetheoryarguethatpettycrimeisitselfafunctionofconcentratedurbanpoverty,andthatasignificantandsustainablereductionincrimelevelscanonlybeachievedbyimprovingthequalityoflifeinpoorneighborhoods.Buteitherway,theplotisthesame:Addressingupstreamproblemscanpreventthemfromgrowingexponentiallyworse.

FIGURE4.2:LESSONSFROMTHELILYPOND.Peopletendtoassumethatgrowthoccursmorequickly(andlinearly)thanitactuallydoes.Itisimportanttoreducetheresultinggapbetweenexpectationsandreality.InnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearningandBridgewayPartners

Ontheotherhand,ourfailuretoaddressclimatechangeinatimelywayrepresentsaseriousexampleofunderestimatingtheseverityofaproblembydependingontrenddataalone.Keydecisionmakersingovernmentandtheprivatesectorhaveresistedrecommendationstoseverelycutcarbondioxideemissionsinpartbecauseofourdependenceonfossilfuelsandinpartbecausetheproblemgrewsoslowly(asmeasuredbythetrendofglobaltemperatures)astonotraisealarmsuntilrecentlywhenweareexperiencingtheeffectsinreal

Page 63: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

time.Anunderstandingandacknowledgmentoftheviciouscyclesinnaturethatproducedthistrend(seeappendixA)mighthaveincreasedpoliticalwillearlier.Indeed,recentweatherpatternsandrisingsealevelsindicatethatthecurveislikelytohavealreadyreacheditstippingpointasmanyscientistswarned—andourbestbetnowistoactaggressivelytopreventfurtherenvironmentalcollapseandfigureoutpeacefulwaysofequitablydistributingincreasinglylimitedresources.

Anunderstandingofreinforcingfeedbackcanleadfoundations,nonprofitleaders,andpolicymakersto:

•Cultivatethepatiencetobuildenginesofgrowthslowly.•Makedecisionsbasedonunderlyingsystemsstructureinsteadoftrends.•Breakpotentialviciouscyclesquickly.

BALANCINGFEEDBACK:THESTORYOFCORRECTION

Whiletheprocessesofgrowthanddecaymightbeobvioustomany,thedynamicsofstabilityandequilibriumareoftendominantandevenmoredifficulttodiscern.Balancingloopsarethedriverforimprovingasocialsystem—weseektobridgethegapbetweenacurrentanddesiredcondition—andthekeytounderstandingasystem’sresistancetochange,becausethecurrentsystemisinequilibriumaroundgoalsitisalreadyachieving.

Werecognizebalancingfeedbackinourdailyexperience,forexamplethroughathermostatthatregulatesroomtemperatureat68°F,orinourowntendenciestosweatorshivertomaintainaninternalbodytemperatureof98.6°F.Incontrastwithreinforcingfeedbackloops,whichamplifyanexistingcondition,balancingfeedbackseekstocorrectorreverseacurrentstatebybridgingthegapbetweenactualanddesiredperformance.Forexample,afoundationmightfundamentoringprogrambetweenolderandyoungerstudentstoimprovegraduationratesoracounselingprogramtoreduceteenpregnancy.Whenbalancingfeedbackaccomplishesadesiredgoal,thecorrectiveprocessoftenbecomesinvisible.Whenweeatenoughfoodorgetenoughsleep,wetendtotakethesefunctionsforgranted.

Bycontrast,wearemoreawareofbalancingprocesseswhenasystemisnotaccomplishingthegoalwestateforit.Inotherwords,balancingfeedbackalso

Page 64: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

helpsexplainwhysystemsdonotchangedespitepeople’sbesteffortstoimprovethem.Simplecorrectiveprocessesfailtofunctionasintendedinatleastoneofthreeways.

First,weoftenstopinvestinginthesolutiononceaproblemappearssolved.Thisactof“takingthepressureoff”oftenleadstheproblemtorecur—muchtothefrustrationoftheproblemsolvers.Forexample,urbanyouthcrimeinBostonwasaseriousproblemintheearly1990s.Politicalandcommunityleadersbandedtogethertodevelopnumerouscoordinatedsolutionsinresponse—fromcommunitypolicingandneighborhoodwatchestogangoutreachandafter-schoolprograms.Whenyouthcrimedeclinedasaresult,politicalleadersfeltobligatedtoshiftfundstomoreobviouslypressingproblems.Asaresult,theygraduallybegantocutbackonthecrimepreventionprogramsthatworkedsowell,andtheproblemreturned.8

Thesecondtendencyistofailtoappreciatethetimerequiredtoeffectchange.Forexample,arecentsuccessstoryoncurbingteendrinkingandsubstanceabuseinoneMassachusettscommunityofforty-sixthousand,whereadultsalsoexhibitedabove-averageratesofalcoholanddrugabuse,describedhowcoordinatedimprovementshadgraduallytakenholdoveraperiodofelevenyears.9Suchpatienceandpersistencearerare.Normalreactionsinthefaceoftimedelayareeithertobecomeimpatientandpushforprematureresultsortogiveuptooquickly.

Thethirdwayinwhichbalancingloopscanfailtocorrectanexistingsituationiswhenthereislackofagreementonthegoalsofthesystem,thecurrentlevelofperformanceandwhatdrivesit,orboth.Forexample,areportsponsoredbytheBallFoundationnotedtherewasnolackofeducationalinnovationinselectedUSschoolsandschooldistricts.10However,educatorsseekingtodisseminatetheseinnovationsonabroaderscalewereconfrontedbyseriousdisagreementsaboutboththegoalsofK–12educationandcurrentperformancelevels.Someschooldistrictsdefinedtheirgoalsintermsoftestscores,whileothersviewedgraduation,subsequentemployment,orthemotivationandcapacityforcontinuouslearningasthedesiredresult.Similarly,theseschooldistrictsmeasuredactualperformancedifferentlyintermsoftestscores,howchildrenperformedaftergraduation,andindicatorsofcreativityand

Page 65: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

self-directedlearning.Itisverydifficulttodefineanddisseminateaparticularstrategywhenthedesiredfuture,systemgoals,and/orperceptionsofcurrentconditionsareambiguousorconflicted.

Byunderstandingineffectivebalancingloops,funders,nonprofitleaders,andpolicymakerscan:

•Ensurethateffectivesolutionsarereinforcedandsustainedovertimeinsteadofreducedwhenthepressuredecreases.•Respecttimedelaysbybeingpatientandpersistentwithsocialinvestments.•Establishaclearandcompellingsharedvision,jointgoals,andacommonunderstandingofcurrentrealitybeforedevelopingstrategy.Thisisthebasisforthechangemodeltobeintroducedinchapter5.

Figure4.3summarizesthecoreelementsofasystemsstory.

ThePlotsThickenMostcomplexproblemsarisefromcombinationsoftwoormorereinforcingand/orbalancingfeedbackprocesses.Thegoodnewsisthatwecangainpreliminaryinsightintoawiderangeofdynamicsbybecomingfamiliarwithtenofthesesystemarchetypesorclassicstories.Thearchetypesarewellunderstood,easilytransferableacrossdifferentsystemcontexts,andoftenserveascatalystsfordiscerningevenmorecomplexdynamics.11Thissectiondescribesfiveingreaterdetailsincetheyilluminatesomanyproblemsinsocialsystems,andintroducesfivemorethatarehelpfultorecognize.

FIXESTHATBACKFIRE

FixesThatBackfireisthestoryofunintendedconsequences.Figure4.4showsthecoredynamicofFixesThatBackfireandthepatternofbehaviorthatarisesfromit.Peopleimplementaquickfixtoreduceaproblemsymptomthatworksintheshortrun(B1infigure4.4);however,thequickfixalsocreateslong-termunintendedconsequencesthatexacerbatetheproblemsymptomovertime(R2infigure4.4).Moreover,peopledonotrecognizethesenegativeconsequencesas

Page 66: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

derivingfromthequickfixbecauseofthetimedelay.Therefore,whenthesymptomreturnstheyincorrectlyassumethatthesolutionistoimplementmoreofthequickfix.Theythink,“Itworkedthefirsttime;wejustdidn’tdoenoughofit.”Whentheyreturntothequickfix,thecyclerepeatsitself:short-termgainsunderminedbylong-termnegativeconsequences.

FIGURE4.3COREELEMENTSOFASYSTEMSSTORY.Systemsstoriesaremadeupofcircularcause–effectrelationshipsamongvariablesthatchangeovertime.InnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearning

Page 67: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

WhatdoesaFixThatBackfireslooklikeinpractice?Let’sreturntotheTAPIcase.Thefixofharshprisonsentencesreducedcrimeandthefearofcrimeintheshortrun.However,overtimeprisonerswerereleased,oftenhardenedbytheirexperienceorunpreparedandlegallyrestrictedintheirabilitiestobecomeproductivemembersofsociety.Onaverageacrossthenation,nearlyhalfofformerlyincarceratedpeoplesuccumbtothepressurestocommitanothercrimeinthefirstthreeyearsoraresentbacktoprisonforparoleviolations.Inarelatedexample,drugbuststakecriminalsoffthestreetandthusreducedrug-relatedcrimeintheshortrun.However,theyalsoremovedrugsfromcirculation,therebyincreasingdrugpricesandrequiringaddictstostealmoretopayforreducedsuppliesinthelongrun.12

FIGURE4.4FIXESTHATBACKFIRE.FixesThatBackfireisthestoryofaquickfixproducingunintendedconsequencesthatgraduallymakeaproblemsymptomworseovertime.InnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearning

Inhealthcare,ascostsofcareincrease,thereispressuretoreducethelengthofhospitalstays.However,peopleareoftensenthometooearlyandmustbe

Page 68: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

readmitted,therebyincreasingcostsofcareevenfurther.InherbookTheCrisisCaravan,journalistLindaPolmancitesthenumerous

problemscreatedbywell-intentionedfundingsentbynonprofitsandwealthiercountriestorelievethedevastationcausedbycivilwarinpoorcountries.Thereliefaid,howeverwellmeaning,producesseveralunintendedconsequencesthatexacerbatethesehumanitariandisastersovertime:Fightersinthewarbecomehealthierandmoreabletocontinuefighting,aidsuppliesarehijackedbydespotsorelitesseekingtomaintainpower,andcynicalleadersmanufactureadditionaldisasterstoreceivemoreaid.Inaddition,thefundingprovidedforreliefcreatesamarketforrelieforganizationsthatcometocompetewithoneanotherformorefunding.13

Anothertypeofreliefaid,sendingfoodtopeoplesufferingfromstarvationcausedbyeitherhuman-madeornaturaldisasters,backfiresinadifferentway.Thepeoplewhobenefitthemostfromfoodaidarechildren.Becausetheysurvive,theyareabletoreachchildbearingagethemselves.Countriesreceivingfoodaidthenfaceanotherspikeinpopulationgrowthandstarvationtentofifteenyearsaftertheyreceivedtheaid.

Casessuchasreliefandfoodaidareparticularlypowerfulinraisingapoignantanddifficultchallengefacedbypeoplewhowanttodogood.Whiletherearethingspeoplecandotoeaseothers’sufferingintheshortterm,thesesolutionscouldmakethingsworseovertime.Itisincumbentonpeoplewhowanttohelptothinkthroughandmitigatethepossibleunintendedconsequencesoftheiractions.

TypicalkeystoovercomingthetendencytowardFixesThatBackfireinclude:questioningthewisdomofthequickfix,identifyinganalternativeresponse,ormitigatingthenegativeconsequencesofthefixifnoalternativecanbefound.Additionalpossibilitieswillbecoveredinchapter10.

SHIFTINGTHEBURDEN

InmanycasesthebestwaytoreducethelikelihoodofFixesThatBackfireistosolvetheunderlyingproblemthatproducesthesymptoms.Peopleoften

Page 69: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

recognizethatamorefundamentalsolutionisdesirable,butthenwonderwhyitissodifficulttoimplement.Oneofthekeyreasonsisthataddressingtherootcauseoftheproblemtakeslonger,ismoreexpensive,andcanentailmoreriskanduncertainty.

Thispullbetweenimplementingaquickfixandaimingforamorefundamentalsolutionliesattheheartoftheso-calledphilanthropicchallenge:Dowefixtheproblemnoworhelppeopleovertime?Insystemsterms,dependingonthequickfixisknownasShiftingtheBurden,whichproducesasimilarpatternofbehaviorasFixesThatBackfire:Intermittentreductionsoftheproblemsymptommaskagradualworseningoftheproblem.However,thereareseveralimportantdifferences:

•InShiftingtheBurdenpeoplegenerallyknowwhatthemorefundamentalsolutionis,buttheycannotgeneratethemotivationandinvestmentsrequiredtoimplementit.Bycontrast,thereisnoclearfundamentalsolutiontotheproblemsymptominFixesThatBackfire,andsoaquickfixseemsliketheonlypossibleresponse.

•Intheshortrunthesuccessofthequickfix,whichistheobviousandeasierofthetwoalternatives,createstemporaryimprovementinthesymptom,whichinturnunderminespeople’smotivationtoimplementthemorefundamentalsolution.

•Inthelongrunimplementingthequickfixproducesunintendedconsequencesthatactuallyunderminepeople’sabilitytoimplementthefundamentalsolutioneveniftheywantto.Onecommonwayinwhichthisabilityisreducedisthatthequickfixconsumesresources(people,time,money)thatwouldotherwisebeavailabletosolvetheproblemmorepermanently.

•Asaresultpeoplecometodependmoreandmoreonthequickfixovertime,andinvestlessandlessinthecoresolution.Thisgrowingdependenceonthequickfixisalsoknownasaddiction.Despitetheirbetterjudgment,peoplebecomeaddictedtothequickfix.

Page 70: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Thesystemsstructureandresultingpatternofbehaviorareshowninfigure4.5.Thetoploop(B1)showsthequickfix,whilethebottomloop(B2)showsthefundamentalsolution.B2isvirtualinthesensethatitshouldbeactivatedbytheproblemsymptombutisnot;insteadthesymptomismitigatedbythequickfixtotheextentthatpeopledonotfeelsufficientlymotivatedtoimplementasolutionthattendstobelonger-termandmorecostly.ThecombinationofB1andB2formaviciouscyclethatincreasesuseofthequickfixovertimewhiledecreasingincentivetousethefundamentalsolution.TheR3looponthesideshowsthatincreasinguseofthequickfixcreatessideeffectsthatactuallydecreasethesystem’sabilitytoimplementthefundamentalsolutionovertime,therebyexacerbatingtheproblemsymptomevenfurther.

ThefoodaidandTAPIcasesareexamplesofbothShiftingtheBurdenandFixesThatBackfire.Withrespecttofoodaid,thereisageneralunderstandinginthedevelopmentcommunitythatthefundamentalsolutiontostarvationisstronglocalagriculture.However,receivingfoodaidunderminesmotivationtodeveloplocalinfrastructure.Inadditionthefreefooddrivesdownlocalfoodpricesandmakesitdifficultforfarmerstogrowanddistributefoodprofitably,therebyweakeninglocalagricultureevenfurther.

FIGURE4.5SHIFTINGTHEBURDEN.ShiftingtheBurdenisthestoryofunintendeddependencyonaquickfixthatreducespeople’swillingnessandabilitytoimplementamore

Page 71: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

fundamentalsolution.InnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearning

Whenitcomestocriminaljusticereform,get-toughprisonsentencesleadpublicofficialsandordinarycitizenstobelievethatthecrimeproblemhasbeenaddressed,thusreducingtheirmotivationtoinvestinalternativemeansofsolvingit.Thesesentencesgetoffendersoffthestreet,buttheburdenisshiftedwhen,uponrelease,formerlyincarceratedpeoplearelessabletodothehardworkofresettlement.Inaddition,thehighcostsofourcurrentpenalsystemreducefundingforcommunitydevelopmentandresettlementprogramsthatwouldreducecrimeandthefearofcrimeinmoresustainableways.Failingtoinvestsufficientlyincommunitydevelopmentandresettlementinitiativesincreasesthepossibilityofcrimeanditsaccompanyingfears.

Inhealthcare,itiscommontoinvestmoreintreatingillnessthaninpreventingitorimprovingoverallhealth.Thelong-termconsequenceofthisinvestmentisthatthereislessmoneyavailableforinfluencingtheunderlyingfactorsthatshapegoodhealthinthefirstplace.

Therearealsoexamplesofquickfixesthatunderminefundamentalsolutionstobefoundininternationaldevelopment.WilliamEasterly,aprofessorofeconomicsandco-directoroftheaward-winningNYUDevelopmentResearchInstitute,challengespeoplewhoarecommittedtorelievingpovertyindevelopingcountriestobewaryofsupportingtechnocraticsolutionsimplementedbyautocrats.14Hedemonstratesthatbottom-updevelopmentbymostlysmallactorsismuchmoreeffective.Whiletop-downtechnocraticsolutionsmayprovidetemporaryreliefforpoorpeople,oratleasttheappearanceofrelief,italsotakesfundsawayfromthemorefundamentalsolution.15

TheShiftingtheBurdenmodelplaysoutintherealmofcorporatesustainabilityaswell.AsJohnEhrenfeld,theexecutivedirectoroftheInternationalSocietyforIndustrialEcology,explains,“Eco-efficiency,ordeliveringmorevalueforlessenvironmentalburden,hasbeentoutedastheprimaryinstrumentforachievingsustainability.Sohassociallyresponsibleinvesting...Theproblemisthatnoneofthisespousedbenevolencecreatestruesustainability.Atbest,itonlytemporarilyslowssociety’scontinuingdrift

Page 72: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

towardunsustainability;atworst,itservesasfeel-goodmarketingforproductsandservicesthatinfactdegradeandpolluteourenvironmentandfailtomeaningfullysatisfytheneedsofconsumers.”16Ehrenfelddistinguishesbetweenwhatheseesasthequickfixofsupportingmoreefficientconsumptionandafundamentalsolutionthatchangestheprevailingconsumption-driveneconomicmodeltoonethatemphasizesthenonmaterialfactorsdrivingqualityoflifeanddoesnotdependonresource-depletingproductstocreatesatisfaction.

PeterBuffett,oneofthesonsofWarrenBuffettandchairmanoftheNoVoFoundation,alsocallsforredefiningthequalityoflifewhenhechallengeswhathecalls“philanthropiccolonialism.”17Hepointsoutthatgrowingthenonprofitsectorisaquickfixtotheproblemofincomeinequalitybecauseitdistractsdonorsfromthedeeperworkofdevelopingamorehumanisticapproachtocapitalism.Buffetquestionsthelogicofincreasingpoorpeople’scapacitytoconsumeattheexpenseofcreatingamoremeaningfulexperienceofprosperityforall.Theunintendedconsequenceofdependingonthenonprofitsectortosolvesocialproblemsisthatphilanthropicallymindedpublic-andprivate-sectorleaderscanjustifywhattheyhaveearnedthroughastructurethatconcentrateswealthintheirhandsbygivingsomeofthatwealthbacktothepoorwithoutchallengingthesystemofinequalityitself.

KeystoovercomingthetendencytowardShiftingtheBurdeninclude:questioningthewisdomofthequickfix,challengingassumptionsthatdiscourageinvestmentinthefundamentalsolution,andestablishingalong-termvisionthatmotivatesimplementationofthissolution.Additionalpossibilitieswillbecoveredinchapter10.

LIMITSTOGROWTH

LimitstoGrowthisthestoryofunanticipatedconstraints(seefigure4.6).Itsunderlyingmessageisthatnothinggrowsforever.Anyengineofgrowthorsuccess(theR1loopontheleftofthediagram),howevereffectiveforaperiodoftime,willinevitablybeconstrainedbyexternaland/orinternalfactors(thatproducetheB2loopontherightsideofthediagram).Externalfactorsmight

Page 73: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

includetheavailabilityoffunding,theaccessibilityofthetargetpopulation,andthequalityofnaturalresources.Internalconstraintsmightincludemanagerialcapability,operationalcapacity,andanorganization’swillingnessorabilitytocollaboratewithothers.

Onecommonexamplefacingmostsocialinnovationsistheproblemofscale-up.Oncetheinnovationisproven,itstillfaceschallengesinexpandingitsreachtoabroaderclientbase.Constraintsmightcomeintheformoforganizationalcapacity,funding,and/orabilitytocreateeffectivepartnerships.18Anexampleofexternalconstraintsisthedrainonenvironmentalresourcesthatsustainlifeasweknowit,aproblemidentifiedinthepioneering1972bookaptlytitledLimitstoGrowth.19

FIGURE4.6LIMITSTOGROWTH.LimitstoGrowthisthestoryofgrowthinevitablyconstrainedbylimitsthatmustbeovercomeinordertosustainsuccess.InnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearning

WhenfacedwithLimitstoGrowth,thekeystepsleaderscantaketomitigatetheeffectsoftheconstraintsaretoresistthetemptationtorelymoreheavilyontheexistinggrowthengine,identifyorideallyanticipatethelimits,andinvesttoovercomethemusingresourcesprovidedbythecurrentengineordrawnfromoutsidesources.Chapter10describesmanystrategiesforincreasingnonprofit

Page 74: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

capacityandscalingupsuccessfulsocialinnovationswiththeLimitstoGrowthplotinmind.

SUCCESSTOTHESUCCESSFUL

Thetendencytoconcentratewealthorsuccessinthehandsofthefewisitselfacommondynamicinsocialsystems(seefigure4.7).Inasystemwithfixedresources,ifpartyAgainsanearlyadvantageoverpartyB,Acanusethatadvantagetoacquireevenmoreresources(R1,whichisavirtuouscycleforA).Meanwhile,partyBbeginsatadisadvantagethatgrowsovertimeasitbecomeslessandlessabletogenerateadditionalresources(R2isaviciouscycleforB).Inotherwords,opportunitybreedssuccess,successbreedsopportunity—andthereverseisalsotrue.

Inparticular,inhisrecentbookonincomeinequalityCapitalinthe21stCentury,FrencheconomistThomasPikettypointsoutthataccruedbenefitstothealreadywealthycomenotjustintheformofmoregoods,butalsointheformofcapitalthatmakesthemevenmoreproductiveandthusconcentrateswealthfurtherandfurtherintotheirhands.20Capitalincludessavingsandinheritedwealththatleadtosuchincome-generatinginvestmentsasstocks,land,higher-qualityeducation,betterhealthcare,andaccesstoinfluentialpeople.Bycontrast,whilemoneyspentbypeopleonacquiringgoodsmayprovidemorecomfort,itdoesnotnecessarilyincreasetheiraccesstothefactorsofproductionrequiredtocreatemorewealth.21

FIGURE4.7SUCCESSTOTHESUCCESSFUL.SuccesstotheSuccessfulexplainshowoneparty’ssuccessandanotherparty’sfailurecanbesocloselylinked.InnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearning

Page 75: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Whilecertaindynamicshelptherichgetricher,othersworkdirectlyorindirectlyagainstthepoorandespeciallyminorities.ThisiswhatexpertslikeKeithLawrence,co-directoroftheAspenInstituteRoundtableonCommunityChange,callstructuralracism,whichhedefinesas“thenormalizationandlegitimizationofanarrayofdynamics—historical,cultural,institutionalandinterpersonal—thatroutinelyadvantagewhiteswhileproducingcumulativeandchronicadverseoutcomesforpeopleofcolor.”22

Examplesofstructuralracismincludegerrymanderingandotherrestrictionsimposedonlargelyminorityvoters.Peoplewhohavebeeninprison,whoarealsolargelyblackmen,facehigherhurdlestoreentersocietywhentheyarereleased,includingacriminalrecordthatoftendiscouragesprospectiveemployers.Infantsandyoungchildrenbornintopoorfamiliesgetaworsestartinlifebecausetheirparentsareoftenunderenormouseconomicandemotionalstressanddonothaveaccesstoqualityhealthcareandpreschoolservices.Recentstudiesshowthatthebestwaytofightinequalityistogivethesefamilieshelpearly—evenbeforebirth.23

WhileitistemptingtoassociatetheSuccesstotheSuccessfuldynamicwithcapitalism,thetendencyexistsinmostsocieties:capitalist,communist,andtraditional.Sustainablesocietiesmoderateitthroughvariousredistributivemechanismsthatenableallofitsmemberstoliveinrelativebalance.

ACCIDENTALADVERSARIES

AsdescribedintheCollaboratingforIowa’sKidscase,AccidentalAdversariesisthestoryoftwoprospectivepartnerswhogradually—andinadvertently—becomeenemies.Asshowninfigure4.8,partiesAandBideallycontributetoeachother’ssuccessthroughactionstheytakethatbenefittheother(outsideloopR1).WhenAforitsownreasonsislesssuccessfulthanitwantstobe,itindependentlyadoptsasolutionthatimprovesitsownperformance(B2).However,itssolutionunintentionallyobstructsB’ssuccess.WhenBislesssuccessfulthanitwantstobe,itadoptsasolutiontoimproveitsownperformancethatworksforit(B3).However,B’ssolutionunintentionally

Page 76: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

underminesA’ssuccess.Thecombinationofindependentlychosensolutionsthatinadvertentlyobstructeachother’sperformanceisaviciouscycle(R4).Inessence,partiesAandBcreateFixesThatBackfireonthemselvesbymakinglifemoredifficultforthepartnerthatcouldpotentiallyhelpthem.

FIGURE4.8ACCIDENTALADVERSARIES.AccidentalAdversariesdescribeshowapromisingrelationshipcanunwittinglydeteriorateintoanadversarialone.InnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearning

TheIowacaseisanexampleofinadvertentconflictbetweenacentralorganizationanditsgeographicrepresentatives.StakeholdersidentifiedthisconflictbetweenthestateDepartmentofEducationandAreaEducationAgenciesasasystem;theylikewiseidentifiedtheconflictsbetweenAEAsasasystemandindividualAEAs,betweenindividualAEAsandlocalschooldistricts,andbetweenlocalschooldistrictsandthestateDepartmentofEducation.Thesamedynamiccreatedtensionbetweenacommunitycollegedistrictandthefiveindividualcollegesthatmadeupthedistrict.Inthiscaseanewcollegepresidentwantedtocentralizefunctionshistoricallymanagedbyeachoftheindividualcollegesinordertoincreaseefficienciesacrossthe

Page 77: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

district.However,thecollegesresistedcentralizationbecausetheywereconcernedthatlosingcontrolofthesefunctionswouldreducetheirabilitytocustomizeservicesfortheirdistinctstudentbodies.

Averydifferentexampleisthetensionthatexistsbetweenelectedofficialsandcivilservants.24Electedofficialsneedthecivilservantswhoworkforthemtoimplementinitiatives,andcivilservantsbenefitfromthepoliticalinfluenceprovidedbytheseofficials.However,shiftingpoliticaladministrationsoftenleadelectedofficialstoimplementchangesthatmakeitdifficultforcivilservantstofulfillmissionoutcomesdespiteelectioncycles,andthecivilservantsinturnseektomaintainmission-criticalwork.

Forexample,whenWilliamRileybecameadministratoroftheUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)underPresidentGeorgeH.W.Bush,hesoughttoexpandtheorganization’smissionbeyondsolelyregulationtofocusmoreonpollutionpreventionandconservation.Toaccomplishthis,hesoughttointegrateEPAprogramsaroundaplace-basedorwholesystemsapproachtoenvironmentaloutcomes.Thisrequiredmovingawayfromthesiloedstructuresandprogrammaticmeasuresofsuccessgeneratedbyyearsoflegislativepolicies.

Then,fouryearslaterundertheClintonadministrationandnewEPAleadershipofCarolBrowner(whotohercredittightenedtheCleanAirAct’sambient-air-qualitystandards),theagencyrevertedtotheoriginalsiloedstructuresandprogrammaticmeasuresofsuccessdespitemanyopportunitiestodootherwisewiththepassageoftheGovernmentPerformanceandResultsAct.Duringthattime,however,seniorcivilservantsintheBostonregionalofficekeptRiley’sintegratedandpollutionpreventionapproachalivethroughtheirrestructuringofthisofficetocreateanecosystemprotectiondivisionandpollutionandenforcementprotectiondivision.Theyalsoredesignedtheprogrammaticandindividualperformancemeasuresbyreinventingtheperformancemanagementsystemtoreflectaplace-based,integratedapproachtooutcomes.Theydidthisoutofastrongbeliefthatthepublicgoodwasbestservedbyfocusingontheorganization’sendsofenvironmentaloutcomes,notjustthemeansofpermitsandenforcementcases,anddespiteoverwhelmingresistancefromsomeoftheirbossesinWashingtonandBostonaswellassomeoftheirpeers.Inanidealworld,bothgroupswouldworktogethertointegrate,

Page 78: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

improve,orretirefragmentedandantiquatedlawsandpolicies;establishsharedstrategicplansandgoalsthatarebothlong-andshort-term;andutilizeallexistingresourcesonbehalfofthemissionandstrategicgoals.

Moregenerally,thekeystostrengtheningthepartnershipbetweenAccidentalAdversariesaretoclarifythepotentialbenefitsofthepartnershiptobothparties,emphasizethattheproblemscausedbybothsideshavenotbeenintentional,andsupportbothgroupstodevelopsolutionstotheirrespectiveproblemsinwaysthatdonotunderminetheothergroup.

OTHERSYSTEMSSTORIES

FiveotherplotlinesthatcanbeeasilyrecognizedacrossmultiplesocialproblemsareDriftingGoals,CompetingGoals,Escalation,TragedyoftheCommons,andGrowthandUnderinvestment.

DriftingGoalsisthestoryofanunintentionaldrifttolowperformance.ItisaspecialcaseofShiftingtheBurden,wheretheeasiestalternativetoimplementingalong-termfundamentalsolutionistolowerthegoalofthesystem(therebyreducingtheneedtomakesuchanextensiveinvestment).Forexample,inrecentyearswehavecometoacceptanincreasingpolarizationinUSpolitics,onethathasthreatenedtheveryfunctioningofourfederalgovernmentmorethanonce.Weallowthisattheexpenseofeffectivelychallengingtheelectoralprocessandtheinfluenceofmoneyonpoliticalinfluence.Onamorepersonalnote,wehavecometotoleratedisrespectfullanguageandhighlysexualizedexpressioninmusicandvideosavailabletochildren(mysonisten)insteadofquestioningthevaluesthatgeneratethem.

CompetingGoalscomesintwoforms:conflictinggoalsandmultiplegoals.25

Inthefirstcase,itisimpossibletoachievetwodifferentgoalsbytakingthesameaction.Inthecaseofdeep-seatedconflicts,thegoalofdefeatingone’senemycannotbeaccomplishedatthesametimeasthegoalofpeacefulcoexistence.Forexample,thevoicesofIsraelisandPalestinianswhopreferapeacefultwo-statesolutionaregraduallydrownedoutbyextremistsonbothsideswhowanttheirneighborstobeeliminatedorsubjugatedinstead.26By

Page 79: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

contrast,theproblemofmultiplegoalsisoneofoverload—peopletryingtoaccomplishtoomanygoalsandthereforebeingineffectiveinachievinganyofthem.

Escalationisthestoryofunintendedproliferation:Theharderyoupush,theharderyouradversarypushesback.Mostcommonly,escalationdescribeseffortstodominateorgainrevengeontheotherparty.Armsracesandwarsareexamplesofthisdynamic,whereeachpartytriestogainadvantageovertheotherbyforce.Ironically,escalationalsoexplainsthe“racetovictimhood”foundinidentity-basedconflictswhereeachsideseekstodemonstratethatitisthemoreaffectedvictimoftheother’saggression.27PsychologistTerrenceRealexplainsthatthesetendenciestowardaggressionandvictimizationaretwosidesofthesamecoinbyobservingthatpeopletendto“oppressfromthevictimposition”asawayofjustifyingtheiraggression.28

TragedyoftheCommonsisthestoryofdepletingacollectiveresourcethatnopartyfeelsindividuallyresponsibleformaintaining.29Itismosteasilyrecognizableinthedestructionofournaturalresources—whetheroverharvestingfisheriesandforests,pollutingairandwater,orexhaustingvaluabletopsoil.Amoresubtleformwithinorganizationsisthetendencyofindividualdepartmentstoplaceexcessivedemandsonacentralizedspecialresource(suchasIT),therebyunderminingtheeffectivenessofthatresourceovertime.

GrowthandUnderinvestmentisthestoryofself-createdlimits.Byinvestinginsufficientlyinanewventure,anorganizationfailstoadequatelyfundthecapacitythatwouldberequiredtomeetgrowingdemand.Becausecapacityisunabletokeepupwithemergingdemand,thedemanditselfnotonlyfailstoincreasebutmayactuallydecline.Moreover,theorganizationtheninterpretslimiteddemandasasignalthatitsoriginallyconservativeinvestmentwasjustified,insteadofasanindicationthatsufficientinvestmentinbuildingcapacity—notjustdemand—isthekeytolong-termgrowth.Examplesofthisoccurininadequatefundingofnewsocialventuresandrestrictinginvestmenttoexpandinganorganization’sdirectservicesattheexpenseofdevelopingrequisiteorganizationalcapacity.

Beforeclosingthissection,itishelpfultonoteoneotherstoryline,knownastheBathtubAnalogy.Thisanalogyaddstheconceptofflowtothoseofstocks

Page 80: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

(orlevelsorvariables)andfeedbackrelationshipsintroducedsofar.Theanalogystatesthatthelevelofwaterinabathtub(orcarbondioxideintheatmosphere,homelesspeopleinacity,unitsofaffordablehousinginanarea,andsoon)isgovernedbytherelativeflowsofwaterintoandoutofthetub.Ifyouwanttochangethelevelofwaterinthetub,youhavetochangetherelativeratesatwhichwaterflowsinanddrainsout,asfigure4.9explains.

TheanalogygainednationalattentionasNationalGeographic’sBigIdeaoftheYearin2009.30DevelopedbyProfessorJohnStermanatMITanddescribedasTheCarbonBathtub,theideais“simple,really:AslongaswepourCO2intotheatmospherefasterthannaturedrainsitout,theplanetwarms.Andthatextracarbondioxidetakesalongtimetodrainoutofthetub.”InordertoreducethelevelofCO2intheatmosphere,itisnecessarytobothreduceCO2inflowsandincreaseCO2outflows,wheninfacteconomicgrowthanddestructionofrainforestsareproducingtheoppositeeffects.Whiletheanalogyseemsdeceptivelyobvious,Stermannotesthatthetendencytoconfusestocks(orlevels)withflowsis“animportantandpervasiveprobleminhumanreasoning.”

FIGURE4.9THEBATHTUBANALOGY.TheBathtubAnalogyhighlightstheimportanceofunderstandingstocksandflowswhenanalyzingsystembehavior.InnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearning

Thetwelvearchetypes(includingthefoundationalonesofreinforcingandbalancingfeedback)introducedhereandsummarizedintable4.1,aswellastheBathtubAnalogy,formthebasisformorecompletestories,nottheirendpoint.However,thesecommonandrecognizablestorylinescangivepeople

Page 81: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

enormouslyvaluableinsightsintomorecomplexissues.Theseinsightsinturnprovidetheessentialself-awarenessrequiredtoshiftless-than-functionaldynamics.

TheStoriesBehindtheStoryThedynamicsdescribedinthestoriesaboveareinturnperpetuatedbytwootherkeyfactors:people’sbeliefsandassumptionsabouthowthingsshouldwork,andtheirunderlyingintentions(orpurpose).Inotherwords,thesystembehavesthewayitdoesinpartbecausepeoplearetryingtoprovethattheirassumptionsaretrueandtoachievecertaingoalsthattheymightnotevenbeawareoforacknowledge.

InthecaseofCollaboratingforIowa’sKids,thefundamentalbeliefheldbyeachorganizationwasthatitwasdoingthebestitcouldtoimproveK–12educationforchildrenatitslevel(statewide,regional,orlocal),andthatshortfallsineducationalperformancewerecausedbyorganizationsinthesystemotherthanitself.Thepurposeofeachorganizationwastooptimizeperformanceacrossthegeographicareaforwhichitwasresponsible,whichitincorrectlyassumedwouldoptimizeperformanceforallchildrenthroughoutthestate.

TABLE4.1.SUMMARYOFSYSTEMSARCHETYPES

Page 82: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

InthecaseofTheAfterPrisonInitiative,advocatesofreformbelievethatratesofincarcerationcontinuetoincreasedespitedecreasingcrimelevels

Page 83: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

becauseofstructuralracism.Otherssaythathighincarcerationrateshaveinfactcausedcrimelevelstodrop,althoughtheyalsonotethatthemarginalbenefitofcontinuingtoincreasethenumberofpeopleinprisonmightnotbejustifiedintermsofcorrespondingdecreasesincrime.31Reformersperceivethattheunderlyingpurposeofharshprisonsentencesistomarginalizepeopleofcolorandotherminoritiesbecausetheyaredifferent,whilemanyelectedofficialsarguethatthepurposeofpublicsafetyisbeingachievedbyget-toughsentencing.

Beingabletorecognizealltheseplotlinesinasystemsstoryhelpsenormouslyasweenterthenextstage—managingchangethroughthefour-stageprocess.

ClosingtheLoop•Systemsstructurescanbesummarizedintermsofrecognizablestorylinesorplotsthatrecuracrossawidevarietyofsocialissues.•Thekeydriversofsystemsstoriesarewhatpeopleassumetobetrueandtheirunderlyingintentions.•Thereareseveralwaystoshiftthesedynamics.Thefirststepinallcasesistobecomeawareofthemandone’sroleinperpetuatingthem.

Page 84: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

PARTTWO

THEFOUR-STAGECHANGEPROCESS

Page 85: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—CHAPTER5—

AnOverviewoftheFour-StageChangeProcess

Inthesummerof2006,MichaelGoodmanandIsupportedagroupofcommunityleadersinCalhounCounty,Michigan(populationonehundredthousand),todevelopaten-yearplantoendhomelessness.1Theagreementforgedbygovernmentofficialsatthemunicipal,state,andfederallevels—alongwithbusinessleaders,serviceproviders,andhomelesspeoplethemselves—cameafteryearsofleadershipinertiaandconflictregardingwhatneededtobedonetosolvetheproblem.Moreover,theplansignaledaparadigmaticshiftinhowthecommunityviewedtheroleoftemporarysheltersandotheremergencyresponseservices.Ratherthanseethemaspartofthesolutiontohomelessness,peoplecametoviewtheseprogramsasamongthekeyobstaclestoendingit.

Theplanwonstatefunding,andaneworganizationledbyanexecutivedirectorandmultisectorboardwasformedtosteerimplementation.Serviceproviderswhohadpreviouslyworkedindependentlyandcompetedforfoundationandpublicmoneyscametogethertoworkinnewways,asexemplifiedbytheirunanimousdecisiontoreallocateHUDfundingfromoneserviceprovider’stemporaryhousingprogramtoapermanentsupportivehousingprogramrunbyanotherprovider.JenniferBentley,whochairedtheplanningprocess,observed,“Ilearnedthedifferencebetweenchangingaparticularsystemandleadingsystemicchange.”Intheplan’sfirstsixyearsofoperation,from2007to2012,CalhounCountydidaremarkablejobofsecuringpermanenthousingforthehomeless,especiallyinthefaceoftheeconomic

Page 86: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

downturnof2008–09.Homelessnessdecreasedby14percent(from1,658to1,419)despitea34percentincreaseinunemploymentanda7percentincreaseinevictions.2

Whywasthisinterventionsosuccessfulwhenmanyothercollectiveattemptstoimprovethequalityofpeople’slivesfallshort?Thelocalfoundationsandotherpartnerswhowereinvolvedcombinedtwosignificantinterventions:aproactivecommunitydevelopmenteffortthatengagedleadersinthethreemajorsectorsalongwithhomelesspeoplethemselves,andasystemsanalysisthatenabledallstakeholderstoagreeonasharedpictureofwhyhomelessnesspersistedandwheretheleveragelayinendingit.Inotherwords,theapproachmergedmoreconventionalprocessesthatfacilitateconveningpeoplesystemically(suchasbringingthewholesystemintotheroom)withtoolsthathelpedthestakeholderstranscendtheirimmediateself-interestsbythinkingsystemicallyaswell.

ConveningandThinkingSystemicallyPart2ofthisbookenablesyoutointegratetheseprocessesofconveningandthinkingsystemicallyintoafour-stagechangeprocess.MichaelandIdevelopedtheapproachasaresultofworkingwithhundredsofexecutivesandchangeagentswhowereresponsibleforleadingsystemicchangeanddidnotknowhowtousethepowerofsystemsthinkingtoincreasetheireffectiveness.Theapproachalsosupportspeopleinterestedinsystemsthinkingtointegrateitintotheworldofpracticalactionandperformanceimprovement.

Leadersofsocialchangerecognizethepowerofconveningmultipleanddiversestakeholders—includingthoserepresentingthenonprofit,public,andprivatesectors—toachievebreakthroughsaroundissuesthataffectallparties.Thepasttwenty-fiveyearshaveseenmanyinnovationsinlargegroupinterventionsdesignedtoincreasecommunicationacrossthesectors,suchasFutureSearch,OpenSpaceTechnology,andtheWorldCafé.3Theseinterventionsareoftenstructuredasindividualeventsoraseriesofevents.Inaddition,newprocessessuchasCollectiveImpact(reviewedinchapter2),TheoryU,SocialLabs,andcollaborationpartnershipsforenvironmentalsustainabilityhavealsoemerged.4

Page 87: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

MichaelandIhavefoundthatsystemsthinkingcanenhancemanyoftheseapproachesbyprovidingwhatOttoScharmer,thecreatorofTheoryU,callsa“collectivesensingmechanism”thatenablesallstakeholderstoseethebiggerpictureeachofthemispartof.Thismechanismalsohelpspeopleappreciatehowtheynotonlysupportbutalsooftenunwittinglyunderminesystemperformance,therebyempoweringthemtothinkandactmoreeffectively.

TheFour-StageChangeProcessWebuiltourfour-stagechangeprocessonthe“creativetension”modelintroducedbyPeterSengeinTheFifthDiscipline.5Thismodelproposesthattheenergyforchangeismobilizedbyestablishingadiscrepancybetweenwhatpeoplewantandwheretheyare(seefigure5.1).Ifpeopleholdtothevisionofwhattheywantandaresimultaneouslyclearandcandidaboutwheretheyare,thenthetensionwilltendtoresolveinfavorofwhattheywant.Thisprincipleappliesbothattheindividuallevelandatthecollectivelevel.

FIGURE5.1ESTABLISHINGCREATIVETENSION.Energyforchangeiscreatedbythetensionbetweenadesiredandtheactualcondition.InnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearning

Page 88: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Translatedtothecollectivelevel,whenpeoplehaveacommonaspiration—asexpressedbyasharedvision,mission,andsetofvalues—andasharedunderstandingofnotonlywheretheyarenowbutalsowhy—thentheyestablishacreativetension,whichtheyaredrawntoresolveinfavoroftheiraspiration.Developingasharedunderstandingofwhythecurrentrealityexistsisessentialtoaddressingthechallengethatstakeholdersoftenagreeonwheretheyareatthetopoftheiceberg(forinstance,feelingpressuretobuildanothershelter),buttheyfailtoseetheunderlyingsystemsstructurethataffectsandisaffectedbyallofthem(theirdependenceontemporarysheltersasasolutiontohomelessness).

Developingasharedpictureofwhatpeoplewantaswellasofrealityatadeeplevelenablesstakeholderstoexperiencetheirresponsibilityforthewholesysteminsteadofjusttheirrole.Itproducesastateofalignmentwherepeoplefreelycommit,“I’llgetmypartdone,andI’llmakesureweallgetthewholethingdone.”Forexample,theymightquestionadecisiontoinvestinnewsheltersandpromoteadditionalinvestmentinpermanent,safe,affordable,andsupportivehousinginstead.

Soweexpandedthecreativetensionmodelintoafour-stagechangeprocesswherestakeholders:

1.Buildafoundationforchangeandaffirmtheirreadinessforchange.2.Clarifycurrentrealityatalllevelsoftheicebergandaccepttheirrespectiveresponsibilitiesforcreatingit.

3.Makeanexplicitchoiceinfavoroftheaspirationtheyespouse.4.Begintobridgethegapbyfocusingonhigh-leverageinterventions,engagingadditionalstakeholders,andlearningfromexperience.

Theprocessissummarizedinfigure5.2.

STAGE1

ThepurposeofStage1istobuildafoundationforchange.Theintendedresultistodevelopcollectivereadinessforchange.Stage1incorporatesthreesteps:

•Engagekeystakeholders.Thisinvolvesidentifyingtherangeofpossiblestakeholdersanddesigningstrategiestoengagethemindividuallyandcollectively.

Page 89: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Establishcommongroundbycreatinginitialpicturesofwhatpeoplewanttoachieveandwheretheyarenow.Itisusefulatthispointtodevelopaninitialsharedvisionoftheidealoutcomesandanoverviewofwhatisandisnotworkingnow.•Buildpeople’scapacitiestocollaboratewitheachother.Thisinvolvesdevelopingpeople’sabilitiestothinksystemicallyandholdproductiveconversationsarounddifficultissues,aswellastheirunderlyingcapacitytotakeresponsibilityforcurrentreality.

Forexample,theCalhounCountyprojectbroughttogetherleadersfromthepublic,private,andnonprofitsectorsalongwithhomelesspeoplethemselvestodeveloptheirten-yearplantoendhomelessness.Theyengagedinsharedvisioningandwereintroducedtoproductiveconversationandsystemsthinkingtoolsearlyonintheprocess.

Page 90: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE5.2FOURSTAGESOFLEADINGSYSTEMICCHANGE.Thisfour-stagemodelprovidesaclearpathforleadingsystemicchange.BridgewayPartnersandInnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearning

STAGE2

ThepurposeofStage2istohelppeoplefacecurrentreality.Theintendedresultsaretobuildnotonlyasharedunderstandingofwhatishappeningandwhy,butalsoacceptanceofpeople’sresponsibilities—howeverunwitting—forcreatingthisreality.Whileitmightseemlogicalatthispointtodevelopaclearerandricherpictureoftheidealfuture,MichaelandIhavefoundthatdigging

Page 91: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

moredeeplyintorealityatthisstagemoreaccuratelyreflectsmanypeople’sdesirestounderstandandbeunderstoodforwheretheyarebeforeventuringtoofarforward.AsOttoScharmerobservedbasedonhisworkwithEdSchein,professoremeritusofmanagementatMIT,theprimaryjobofleadershipisto“enhancetheindividualandsystemiccapacitytosee,todeeplyattendtotherealitythatpeoplefaceandenact.”6

ThetasksofStage2areto:

•Identifypeopletointerviewaboutthehistoryofthecurrentsituationandclarifywhatquestionstoask.•Organizeandbegintoimprovethequalityoftheinformation.•Developapreliminarysystemsanalysisofhowdifferentfactorsinteractovertimetosupportorundermineachievementofthevision.•Engagepeopleindevelopingtheirownanalysisasmuchaspossible.•Surfacethementalmodelsthatinfluencehowpeoplebehave.•Createcatalyticconversationsthatstimulateawareness,acceptance,andalternatives.

Forexample,MichaelandIinterviewedfiftyleadersfromacrossthethreesectorsaswellashomelesspeople,developedaninitialsystemsmapthatweinitiallyvettedwithasmalldesigncommittee,andrefinedandthensharedouranalysiswithawidersteeringcommittee.

STAGE3

ThepurposeofStage3istohelppeoplemakeanexplicitchoiceinfavorofwhattheyreallywant.Theintendedresultisthattheyconsciouslycommittotheirhighestaspirationswithfullawarenessofthecosts,notjustthebenefits,ofrealizingthem.Thestepstoachievethisresultaretohelpstakeholders:

•IdentifythecaseforthestatusquouncoveredinStage2—theshort-termbenefitsofthecurrentsystemsuchasquickfixesthatwork,forinstance,andtheimmediategratificationthatcomesfromimplementingthem—andthecostsofchanging,suchastheneedtomakelonger-terminvestmentsineffort,time,andmoney.

Page 92: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•ComparethiswiththecaseforchangedescribedinStage1—thebenefitsofchangeandthecostsofnotchanging.•Createboth/andsolutionsthatachievethebenefitsofboth—orbewillingtomakehardtrade-offsbetweenthem.•Makeanexplicitchoiceandbringittolifethroughavisionthatilluminateswhatpeoplefeelcalledtoordeeplywishtocreate.

AcriticalturningpointinCalhounCounty’sten-yearplanningeffortoccurredwhenthestakeholdersrealizedthattheircurrentsystemwasperfectlydesignedtohelppeoplecopewithhomelessness;however,thewaytheywereoperatingactuallyunderminedtheiravowedpurposetoendhomelessness.

STAGE4

ThepurposeofStage4istohelppeoplebridgethegapbetweenwhattheydeeplycareabout,whichtheyaffirminStage3,andwheretheyarenowasclarifiedinStage2.Thisfinalstageinvolvesidentifyingleveragepointsandestablishingaprocessforcontinuouslearningandexpandedengagement.Specifictasksareto:

1.Proposeandrefinehigh-leverageinterventionswithcommunityinput.Thisincludes:a.Increasingpeople’sawarenessofhowthesystemfunctionsnow.b.“Rewiring”causalfeedbackrelationships.c.Shiftingmentalmodels.d.Reinforcingthechosenpurposethroughupdatedgoalsandplans,metrics,incentives,authoritystructures,andfunding.

2.Establishaprocessforcontinuouslearningandoutreach.Thiscovers:a.Engagingexistingstakeholdersonanongoingbasis.b.Developinganimplementationplanthatincorporatesdemonstrationprojectsaspartofalong-termroadmap.

c.Refiningthedatatobegatheredbasedonnewgoalsandmetrics.d.Evaluatingandrevisingtheplanregularlywithinputfromcurrentstakeholders.

Page 93: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

e.Expandingstakeholderinvolvementbytappingadditionalresourcesandscalingupwhatworks.

InthecaseofCalhounCounty,theleveragepointspeopleidentifiedbecamethegoalsoftheirten-yearplan,andothershavebecomeinvolvedintheimplementation.Broaderinvolvementtoendhomelessnessincludesengagingstakeholdersresponsibleforeconomicdevelopment,affordablehousing,fostercare,andthecriminaljusticesystem.

Whilethefourstagesandsupportingtasksarelistednumerically,theprocessitselfisnotalwayslinear,aswe’llseeinthechaptersahead,whichmapoutthetasksassociatedwitheachstep.ThelessonsfromStage4,forinstance,feedbackintoanewStage1inanongoing,circularprocess.Allowingampletimefortheprocessiscritical:Inthiscase,theshortestdistancebetweentwopointsisindeedacircle.

ClosingtheLoop•Youcanincreaseyourabilitytoleadsystemicchangebyintegratingwaysofconveningmultiple,diversestakeholderswithtoolsthathelpthemthinksystemically.•Oneprovenapproachforcombiningthetwoisafour-stagechangeprocessthatexplicitlyharnessesthepowerofsystemsthinking.•Thefourstagesare:buildingafoundationforchange,facingcurrentreality,makinganexplicitchoice,andbridgingthegap.•Thesestageswillbedetailedinchapters6through10.

Page 94: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—CHAPTER6—

Page 95: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

BuildingaFoundationforChange

Imagineengagingagroupofcommunitystakeholderstoaddressanimportantsocialissue—suchasendinghomelessness,strengtheningK–12education,orimprovinglocalpublichealth.Youwouldwanttoidentifywhotobringtogetherandhow,establishcommongroundamongtheparticipants,andsupportthemtocollaboratewithoneanother.

Nowimagineyourfirstgroupmeetingandbeingconfrontedbythefactthatpeoplehaveactuallycomewithtwodifferentagendas:theirpubliconetoaddresstheissueandtheirprivateonetooptimizetheirpartofthesystem.JohnMcGahofthehomelessnessinitiativeGiveUSYourPoorandIdevelopedtable6.1todistinguishthesetwoagendasforparticipantsinatypicalhomelesscoalitionmeeting.

Howwouldyouaddressthechallengesofdifferentinterestsandperspectivestobuildastrongfoundationforchange?Howwouldyouensurethatyouinvitetherightpeopleinthefirstplace,establishcommonground,anddeveloptheirabilitiestoworktogether?

EngageKeyStakeholdersKeystakeholdersarepeopleandorganizationsthataffectandareaffectedbytheissue.Theyincludeanyonethatcanmakeacontributiontotheeffort,oranyonethatcanpossiblyderailitifnotonboard.Broadly,participantsmightincludenonprofitorganizationsrepresentingcommunityinterestsand/orspecificpopulations,governmentagenciesthatarechargedwithdevelopingorimplementingsocialpolicies,lawenforcement,healthproviders,schools,businessesconcernedwiththeimpactofanissueoneconomicdevelopment,the

Page 96: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

media,andmembersofthetargetpopulation.Diversityiskeybecausesystemsdependonittoinnovate.

TABLE6.1.THEHOMELESSCOALITIONMEETING

Page 97: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Inordertoengagekeystakeholders,aconveningorganizationorgroupsuchasafoundationorcommunity-wideboardneedstoclarifywhoshouldbeactivelyinvolvedandthendevelopastrategyforgettingthemtoworktogether.Ithelpstoincludethefollowingcoregroupmembers:

•Executivesponsorsandkeydecisionmakersrepresentingthekeyconstituencieswhohaveadeepinterestintheissueandopportunity.•Activistswithapersonalpassionfortheissue.•Ultimatebeneficiarieswhousuallyhavelittleornovoiceinthecurrentsystem,suchaspatients,students,homelesspeople.•Aprofessionalconsultantorfacilitator.

Astakeholdermapisasimpletooltoguidetheengagementprocessandexpandparticipation(seetable6.2).Forexample,inapplyingthetooltoendhomelessness,usecolumn1(NAME)toidentifythegroupsorindividualswhoneedtobeinvolvedbecausetheyimpactorareimpactedbytheissue.Incolumn2(CURRENTSUPPORT),considerhowsupportiveeachstakeholdercurrentlyisofcreatinganewreality,onascaleof-3to+3.A-3indicatesthattheyarestronglymotivatedtoblockeffortstoendhomelessness(forwhateverreason),a0indicatesneutrality,anda+3indicatesthattheyarefullymotivatedtotaketheleadinendinghomelessness.

TABLE6.2.ANALYZINGKEYSTAKEHOLDERS

Page 98: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Incolumn3(DESIREDSUPPORT),writedownhowyouasaconvenerwanteachstakeholdertobeinvolvedinendinghomelessness.Forexample,youmightwanttomoveagroupthatiscurrentlya-3(lookingtoblocktheeffort),-2(stronglyopposed),or-1(somewhatopposed)toamoreneutral0position.Oryoumightwanttomotivateacurrentlyneutralgrouptobecomea+1(somewhatsupportive)or+2(stronglysupportive)contributor.Sinceithelpstohaveonlyoneorganizationorgroupsuchasamultisectorleadershipboardinaformalleadershiprole,identifyonestakeholderwhomyouwanttoseeinthe+3role.

Incolumn4(THEIRMOTIVATION),clarifythemotivatorsforeachstakeholdertoparticipateinthewayyoudescribedincolumn3.Somemotivatorsarelikelytobethesameformanystakeholders,whileotherswillbeuniquetospecificgroups.Ifpeopleareresistanttochange,clarifyinthiscolumnthenatureoftheirresistanceastechnical,political,orcultural.Noteincolumn5(WHATYOUCANDO)howyouintendtoengageeachstakeholderdependingonwhytheywouldwanttobeinvolved.Somegroupsmightbebestengagedinitiallythroughindividualoutreach,whileothersmightbegladtobeinvolvedthroughacommunity-widecoalition.Ifpeopleareresistanttochange,recognizethatyoustillhaveseveraloptions.Youcanlegitimizeandaddresstheirconcernsdirectly,influencethemthroughothers,engagethematcriticalphasesintheprocess,orworkaroundthem.

Theformofcollectivegatheringwillvaryaccordingtothenatureoftheissue.Forexample,inthecaseoftheCollaboratingforIowa’sKidsproject,acoregroupofleadersfromthestateDepartmentofEducationandAreaEducationAgenciesconvenedalargergroupofrepresentativesfrombothorganizations,andsubsequentlyinvitedinrepresentativesfromLocalEducationAgencies(LEAs)aswellwhenitbecameclearthatLEAsneededtobepartofdevelopinganewcollaborativeprocess.

Ineffortstoendhomelessness,stakeholdersarelikelytoincludeindividualsandorganizationsthatmakeuptheContinuumofCare,thecoordinatingbodydefinedbytheDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopmenttoaddresshomelessnessinageographicregion.Itisimportanttothinkaboutpeoplewhoprovidenotonlyshelterandhousingforthehomelessbutalsorelatedservices—suchaschildwelfare,criminaljustice,healthcare,transportation,andeducation

Page 99: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—thatimpactandareimpactedbytheproblem.Perhapslessobviousbutequallycriticalarebusinesspeople,becausetheyaffectandareaffectedbytheeconomichealthofthecommunity,whichinturnimpactshomelessness;public-sectorofficialsatthemunicipal,county,state,andfederallevels,becausetheyinfluencefundingstreamsandpolicyrelatedtohomelessness;andhomelesspeoplethemselves.Itisalsoimportanttoconsiderhowtoinvolvethemediaandshapecitizenopinionsabouttheissue.

Convenersneedtoaddressseveralchallengesinengaginglargergroupsofstakeholders:

•Onetimeevents,suchastheretreatusedinTheAfterPrisonInitiative,arelesslikelytobeeffectivethanlonger-termprocesses.Althoughface-to-faceprocessesaremoreexpensivetomanage,especiallywhenpeoplearewidelydistributedatanationalorgloballevel,theycanbeincreasinglycomplementedbyvirtualworkthat’ssupportedbyimprovedcommunicationstechnology.Technologyreducesoverallcosts,andthecombinationofface-to-faceandvirtualcollaborationproducesthebenefitsofsustainedcollectiveattention.

•Askingpeopletoproposereformstoanexistingsystemcanleadthemtothinkthattheyarenotpartofthesystem,andhencenotpartoftheproblem.Systemsthinkingenablespeopletoseehowtheyarepartoftheproblem,whichironicallyincreasestheirabilitytodevelopeffectivesolutions.

•Reformersoftenblamepowerfulstakeholderswhorepresentthestatusquoandarenotpartoftheredesignprocessfortheirowninabilitiestoeffectchange.Whilecertainstakeholdersdoresistchange,itisimportanttorealizethatthereareseveralwaystoworkwiththisresistance,including:legitimizingandaddressingtheirconcernsdirectly,influencingthemthroughothers,andengagingthematcriticalphasesintheprocess.Alternatively,itmightbenecessarytoworkaroundthemorusemoreactiviststrategiessuchaspoliticaladvocacy,activeopposition,andlegislationtochangepolicy—althoughthesearenotthefocusofthisbook.

Page 100: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

EstablishCommonGroundEstablishingcommongroundinvolvesdevelopinganinitialappreciationofwhypeoplearecomingtogether,asharedsenseofdirection,andagreementonsomeofthekeyaspectsofcurrentreality.

WhatbroughtpeopletogetherintheCollaboratingforIowa’sKidsprojectwasacommonconcernthat,despitereformeffortsimplementedoverthepastdecade,studentperformancewasnotincreasinginrelationtothestate’sownhighstandardsandrelativegainsdemonstratedbykidsinotherstatesandcounties.TheOpenSocietyInstituteconvenedTheAfterPrisonInitiativeretreattoclarifywhyincarcerationandrecidivismratesremainedsohighdespiteparticipants’extensiveeffortstoreformthecriminaljusticesystem.LeadersinCalhounCountycametogethertocapitalizeonanopportunitytoreceivestatefundingfordevelopingaten-yearplantoendhomelessnessintheircommunity.

Oneusefultoolinestablishingacommonrationaleforcomingtogetheristoaskpeopletoidentifyafocusingquestiontheywanttoanswer.Thefocusingquestionisawayofhelpingpeopledefinetheboundariesofasystemsanalysis.Sinceeverythingisultimatelyconnectedtoeverythingelse,thequestionenablesthemtodeveloparichyetmanageablelevelofinsightintotherootcausesofachronic,complexproblem.Itasks,“Why,oftendespiteourbestefforts,havewebeenunabletoachieveacertaingoalorsolveaparticularproblem?”Thequestion“why”isessentialbecausethisleadspeopletouncoverrootcauses;bycontrast,“howto”questionsmobilizethemtoimplementsolutionstoproblemstheyoftendonotfullyunderstand.

Theuseofafocusingquestionpointstoaparadoxofsystemsmapping:Thepurposeofsystemsmappingistoanswerafocusingquestion—nottomapanentiresystem.Answeringafocusedquestionisaboundedobjectivethatyieldsactionableinsights,whilemappinganentiresystemcanbeanunboundedtaskthatproducesconfusionandparalysisinthenameofcomprehensiveness.

Developingasharedsenseofdirectioninvolvesclarifyingthemission,vision,andvaluesoftheconveninggrouponbehalfofthestakeholderstheyrepresent.Forexample,mycolleagueKathleenZurcherhelpedtheconveninggroupforCollaboratingforIowa’sKidstodefine“theHallmarksofOur

Page 101: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Partnership”and“theFutureWeWillCreateTogether.”1Thehallmarkswerepeople’smissionandcorevaluesincomingtogether.Theydescribedtheirdesiredfutureintermsofbothavisionstatementandadetailedpictureoftheirendresult.Theirrichpictureansweredtwoquestions:“WhatwillweexperienceinIowawhenthisvisionisachieved?Whatdifferencewillitmake?”

Themembersofthe10-YearPlanningCommitteetoEndHomelessnessinCalhounCountysummarizedtheirvisionas:

•Acomprehensive,integratedimplementationplantoreducehomelessnessandchronichomelessnessinCalhounCounty.•Astrongcoalitionofserviceproviders,homelessindividuals,funders,andcommunityleaderswithacommunity-widecommitmenttoendhomelessness.•Asystemthatfosterscollaborationeffortsandateamapproachtoendhomelessness.

Severalfactorsinfluencehowmuchtimetospendonvisioninginthisfirststage.Kathypointsoutthatwhenthequalityofrelationshipsamongstakeholdersisveryfragileorpeoplearetoooverwhelmedbycurrentcircumstancestobecreative,itcanhelpthemtospendmoretimeoncultivatingasharedvisionbeforemovingtoinquiredeeplyintothewaythingsare.Ontheotherhand,ifpeoplearefeelingdisconnectedfromwhatishappeningnoworfrustratedbytheirinabilitiestoimplement“obvious”solutions,thenitmakessensetomovetoStage2faster.

Thefinalstepindevelopingcommongroundistohighlightkeyaspectsofcurrentrealityinrelationtothevision.Forexample,thecommunityleadersinCalhounCountycontrastedtheirvisionwiththefollowingobservationsaboutthewaythingsare:

•Althoughwehavemanyagenciesworkingondifferentimportantaspects,weneedstrongerteamapproaches.•Thereisnotalotofpubliceducationabouthomelessness.•Ourcurrentcoalitionismadeupofprimarilyserviceproviderswithouttheneededcommunity,resident,andmonetarysupport.•Noteveryoneisawareofotheragencyservices.

Page 102: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Youcanusetheicebergtooltohighlightcurrentrealityatmultiplelevels:

Level1:Importanteventsthathavetriggeredpeople’sdesiretocometogether—suchasCalhounCounty’sonetimeopportunitytoreceivestatefundstoendhomelessness.

Level2:Relativechangesinkeyindicatorsovertime—suchasgrowingincarcerationratesdespitedecliningcrimerates.

Level3:Criticalpressures,policies,andpowerdynamicsthataffecttheissueoropportunity—suchastheimpactofstructuralracismoneffortstoreformthecriminaljusticesystem.

Level4:Underlyingassumptionsormentalmodels—suchastheassumptionsinCalhounCounty(andelsewhere)that“peoplewanttobehomeless”and“theindividualistheproblem,notthesystem.”

Creatingacommoncontextforcollaborationandestablishingcreativetensionthroughinitialstatementsofashareddirectionandcontrastingcurrentrealityhelpprovideastrongfoundationforchange.

BuildCollaborativeCapacityThelastcornerstoneofastrongfoundationisdevelopingpeople’sabilitiestoworkwithoneanother.Introducingtheseskillsatthisstageisimportantbecauseoptimizingthesystemrequiresimprovingtherelationshipsamongitsparts,notoptimizingtheindividualpartsasisoftenassumedandrewarded.Improvingthewholealsorequiresthatpeoplefeelcomfortablesharinginformationthatisastimely,accurate,andcompleteaspossible.

Onecapacitytodevelopisthinkingsystemically.Supportingpeopletousethelanguageofsystemsthinkingincreasestheirabilitiestoseethebiggerpictureandspeakinwaysthattakethispictureintoaccount.Itcanbeespeciallyhelpfulatthisstagetointroduceseveraloftheprinciplesandtoolscoveredinearlierchaptersofthisbook:

•Goodintentionsarenotenough.•Characteristicsoffailedsolutions.•Conventionalversussystemicthinking.•Theiceberg.

Page 103: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Reinforcingandbalancingfeedback.•Timedelays.•Commonsystemsarchetypes.

Whenpeoplecometounderstandthattheyareconnectedinnon-obviousandoftencounterproductiveways,theybegintoappreciatethebiggerpictureandnotjusttheirpartofit.

Asecondcapacityistodevelopproductiveconversationsarounddifficultissues.Asthemetaphoroftheblindmenandtheelephantilluminates,peopleseekingtoworktogetheroftenhaveverydifferentviewsofreality.Inaddition,theexampleofthehomelesscoalitionatthebeginningofthischaptershowsthatevenpeoplewithsharedaspirationscanhaveverydifferentsecondaryagendas.Peoplewhowanttoachievesocialchangeneedtolearntoengageandbridgedifferences.

Thecoreskillforproductiveconversationsistorecognizethattheworldismuchmorecomplexthanpeoplethink.Ourassumptionsormentalmodelsareatonceuseful,limited,andcapableofbecomingmoreaccurate.Forexample,assumingthat“streetpeopleprefertobehomeless”mightbeusefulinthatitacknowledgesthattheymighthavedifficultiesinadjustingtolivinginapermanenthome.Thesameassumptionislimitedinthesensethatmostchronicallyhomelesspeoplewhoaregiventheopportunitytoliveinpermanenthousingwithsupportservicestakeadvantageofit;inonecase96percentwerestilllivinginthesamehousingoneyearlater.2Hence,amoreevidence-basedandaccurateassumptionisthatmoststreetpeopleprefertoliveinpermanenthousingifitissafe,isaffordable,offerscommunity,andiscoupledwithcounselingservices.

TheLadderofInference(seefigure6.1)isanexcellenttoolforhelpingpeopledistinguishwhattheythinkfromthelargerrealityaroundthem.Itshowshowpeopleselectcertaindataoutofanalmostinfinitepoolofavailabledata,makeassumptionsanddrawconclusionsbasedonthedatatheyselect,makerecommendationsandtakeactionbasedontheseconclusions,andthenlookfornewdatathatreinforcetheiroriginalassumptions.

AnotherusefultooliswhatPeterSengedescribesas“balancingadvocacyandinquiry.”3Mostpeoplearemoreaccustomedtoadvocatingthaninquiring,soit

Page 104: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

oftenhelpstobeginwithinquiry—theartofaskingothershowtheyseetheworldandthenlisteningtothemdeeply.AsmycolleagueBryanSmithtoldmemanyyearsago,peopleneedtoknowthatyoucarebeforetheycarewhatyouknow.Askothers:4

•Whatdoyousee(theobservabledata)?•Howdoyoufeelasaresultofseeingthosedata?•Whatdoyouthinkortellyourselfasaresultofthosedata?•Whatdoyouwant?

Thenreallylisten.OttoScharmerdistinguishesfourlevelsoflistening:listeningforwhatyoualreadyknow,listeningforwhatsurprisesyou,listeningwithempathyfortheother’sexperience,andlisteningfromadeepersourcethatseemstoembraceyourtruthandtheirs.5

Onceyouhaveestablishedthatyoucareaboutothers’views,youcanbeamoreeffectiveadvocateforyourown.Sinceeachofusseespartofamorecomplexworld,itisalsoimportantthatyoubeabletocontributetopeople’sunderstandingbyadvocatingyourview.Inorderforyouradvocacytobeheardandusedmosteffectively,ithelpstolearntoadvocatesoastobothsharewhatyouknowandinviteotherstocommentonandpotentiallyenhanceyourknowledge.EffectiveadvocacyinvolvesunderstandingandmakingtransparentyourownLadderofInferencesothatotherscanaddtoandimproveuponthedata,reasoning,andconclusionsyouhavedrawn.

Page 105: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE6.1THELADDEROFINFERENCE.TheLadderofInferenceshowshowpeopleunconsciouslyjumpfromdatatoconclusions.BasedontheworkofChrisArgyrisandDonSchon

Bybalancingadvocacyandinquiry,youcreatenotonlyamoreaccuratepictureofwhatisandhowtoworkwithit,butalsomoresupportfromothersfortakingeffectiveaction.

Thethirdcapacityistocultivateaviewpointofresponsibility.Boththinkingsystemicallyandholdingproductiveconversationsdevelopadeepercapacitytounderstandhowyouareresponsibleforasituationasitcurrentlyexists,notjustforsolvingit.Takingresponsibilityfortheproblemasitexistsdoesnotmeanblamingyourselfforit.Itmeansempoweringyourself.Youseehowyour

Page 106: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

intentions,assumptions,andactionshaveunintentionallycontributedtotheproblemyouwanttosolve.Itisultimatelyeasiertochangehowyouthinkandbehavethantotrytochangeothersinthesystem.

Evenifyouarenotresponsiblefortheproblem,youcanusethisperspectivetoaskhowyoureffortstosolvetheproblemmightunintentionallybeunderminingyourabilitytodoso.Forexample,ifyourintentionistoconvinceothersthattheyarewrongandmustbetheonestochange,thenyoucanactivateorembedanadversarialrelationship,whichisevenmoredifficulttoresolve.Youcreateunnecessaryoppositionwhen,inthewordsofmastertherapistTerrenceReal,you“oppressfromthevictimposition.”6Ithelpstorememberthatrespect,inquiry,andempathyareoftenthebestkeystousefirsttoopenthedoorofsocialchange.

ClosingtheLoop•Beginbuildingyourfoundationforchangebyidentifyingandinvolvingimportantstakeholders.•Recognizethattherearemultiplewaystoengagepeoplewhoresistchange—notjustthosewhosupportit.•Establishcommongroundbyidentifyingacommonreasonforcomingtogether,developingashareddirection,andsketchinganinitialpictureofcurrentreality.•Buildpeople’scapacitiestocollaboratebyintroducingskillsandtoolsforthinkingsystemicallyandholdingconversationsthatbridgedifferences.•Cultivateaviewpointofresponsibilityfortheproblem(whereitmakessense)andforhowpeoplearechoosingtosolveit.

Page 107: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—CHAPTER7—

FacingCurrentReality:BuildingUnderstandingThroughSystems

Mapping

ThepioneeringsocialpsychologistKurtLewinsaid,“Ifyoureallywanttounderstandsomething,trytochangeit.”Thelinkbetweeninsightandeffectivesocialchangeiscritical.Toooftenpeopleargueforsolutionswithoutadeepappreciationfornotonlyhowthecurrentsystemoperates,butalsowhy.Toooftentheproposedsolutionsdirectlimitedresourcestosolutionsthatmakenodifferenceinthelongrunormakemattersworse.

Thepurposeofthischapteristodeepenyoursystemsunderstandingbyapplyingthestorytellingdevicesintroducedinchapter4tosixcases.Thecasesfocusonsomeexamplesthatwereintroducedearlier—reorganizingresponsibilitiesforK–12educationatthestatelevel,criminaljusticereform,andendinghomelessness—andseveralnewones,suchasimprovingruralhousingandredesigninganearly-childhooddevelopmentandeducationsystem.

Theemphasisinthischapterisonthefirstthreetasksoffacingcurrentreality:

1.Identifypeopletointerviewaboutthehistoryofthecurrentsituationandclarifywhatquestionstoask.

2.Organizeandbegintoimprovethequalityoftheinformation.3.Developapreliminarysystemsanalysisofhowdifferentfactorsinteractovertimetosupportorundermineachievementofthevision.

Page 108: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

EstablishSystemsInterviewsThisfirsttaskwillbemoresuccessfulifyouidentifystakeholderswithawiderangeofviewsabouttheissue.Thisenablesyoutobuildaricherpictureofhowthesystembehavesandwhy.Mostimportant,besuretolearnfromstakeholderswhoseviewsyoumightotherwisedismiss.Forinstance,thosespearheadingasystemsmappingprojectoftenexcludethemostseniorpeopleinvolvedintheirissuebecausetheybelievetheyaretoodifficulttoaccessorthattheyalreadyknowwhatthose“atthetop”think.Otherstoooftenexcludedareadministrativepeople(whomightbeaffectedbyunwieldyprocessesandprocedures),peoplewhoseworktouchesontheissue,andtheultimatebeneficiariesofthework.Inthecaseswe’llexamine,thesebeneficiariesincludehomelesspeople,patients,andstudents.Learningfromadiversegroupofstakeholdersnotonlybuildsunderstandingbutalsodevelopstherelationshipsrequiredtoshifthowthesystemoperates.

Forexample,intheCalhounCountyprojecttodevelopaten-yearplantoendhomelessness,MichaelGoodmanandIinterviewedfiftypeoplerepresentingapopulationofonehundredthousand.Theseincluded:

•Leadersresponsiblefortheoverallsocialandeconomichealthofthecounty—formalandinformalopinionleaders,representativesofstateandlocalgovernment,andleadersinthebusinessandcivicsectors.•Peoplewhoinfluencedpoliciesaffectingthelikelycausesofaswellassolutionstohomelessness.•Serviceproviderswhointeractedwithandtriedtohelphomelesspeople.•Homelesspeoplethemselves.

Interviews,whetherone-on-oneorinsmallfocusgroups,arepreferabletosurveysbecausetheyenableyoutouncovernotonlywhatpeoplethinkbutalsothereasoningthatleadsthemtotheirconclusions.Interviewingalsobuildsmoredirectrelationships.Ifnecessary,asurveybasedoninterviewfindingscanthenbeusedtogatherinformationfromabroadersampleofstakeholders.

Overtime,wehavedevelopedalistofinterviewquestionsdesignedtobuildsystemicinsights.Thesecanbeadaptedforanyissue,andusedtojump-starttheprocess:

Page 109: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Considerfirstwhathasbeenhappeningaroundtheproblemyouwanttoexplore.Doesithaveaknownpatternofbehaviorovertime?•Ifso,describethispattern.Doesitexhibitoneormoreofthefollowingkeyvariablesovertime:•Oscillations?•S-shapedgrowth?•Steeplyrising,runawaygrowth?•Flatline,nogrowth?•Sharpupsanddowns?

•Stateyourdefinitionoftheproblembycompletingthefollowingsentence:“WhyhasXbeenhappeningdespiteourbesteffortstoachieveadifferentgoal?”“Why”ratherthan“how”questionsensurethatyourstatementsdonotassumeasolution.(Forexample,ask“Whydoesurbanyouthcrimeoscillateovertimeinsteadofcontinuouslydecline?”ratherthan“Howcanwetoughenprisonsentencestoreducecrimeevenfurther?”)•Whataretheearliestantecedentsoftheproblem?Also,describeanypreviousattemptstosolvetheproblem.Whatwastried,bywhom,andwithwhatoutcome?•Whatisalreadyworking?Howdopeoplesucceedorsurviveinthesystemasitfunctionsnow?•Howwouldthisissuelookfromtheviewpointofseniordecisionmakers?Whatfactorsorcomponentswouldthatlevelsee?Howdotheythinkabouttheissue?•Howwouldotherstakeholders,includingultimatebeneficiaries,seetheissue?Whatisimportanttoeachofthem?Howdotheythinkaboutit?•Whatothercausesareaffectingthissystem?Whatothereffects(particularlythosethataredistantorunintended)doesthesystemproduce?•Whatpartoftheissueisinternaltomyorganization?Whatisamanageablechunkthatrelatestomyposition?•InwhatwaysdoIormyorganizationcreateorcontributetotheissuethroughwhatI/wesay(orchoosenottosay),do(orchoosenottodo),orthink?

Page 110: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Whatistheapparentpurposeofthissystem?Inotherwords,whatappeartobetheoutcomesofpeople’sefforts?Howisthisdifferentfromwhatpeoplereallywant?

Itcanalsobehelpfultotailorquestionstothespecificissueyouwanttoaddress.Forexample,appendixBprovidesquestionsthatwereusedtolearnmoreaboutTheAfterPrisonInitiative,theCalhounCountyTen-YearPlantoEndHomelessness,theefforttoimproveruralhousing,andtheCollaboratingforIowa’sKidsproject.ThequestionsusedfortheIowaprojectalsorepresentawayofdepictinganAccidentalAdversariesrelationshipandwereusedinthiscasebecausethepresentingissuewasadifficultpartnership.

Sometimesinterviewsareneithersufficientnorfeasibletogaininitialinsightintoanissue.Itisstillpossibletodraftasystemsmapusingthird-partyreportsdrawnfromsuchsourcesaswrittenreportsandmeetingnotes.Forexample,theinitialsystemsmappresentedattheTAPIretreatwasdevelopedlargelybasedonpreviousanalysesofcriminaljusticereformsupplementedbyafewfollow-upinterviews.PreliminaryinsightsintotherootcausesofcivilwarinBurundicamealmostexclusivelyfromwrittendocuments.

OrganizeInformationHerearefourscreenstousewhenorganizingtheinformationyougather:

•Listenforwhatiscurious,confusing,orcontraryamonginterviewees.•Distinguishmeasurabledatafromhowpeopleinterpretthesedata.•Identifykeyvariables,oftenthoughtofascriticalsuccessfactorsorkeyindicators.•Lookforrecognizablestorylinesorarchetypes.

Thefirstscreeninvolvesnoticingwhatconcernspeopleorfeelssurprisingtothem.Thefocusingquestionitself,whenphrasedas“Why,despiteourbestefforts,havewebeenunableto...?”evokesconcernandcuriosity.Intheirworktoendhomelessness,theleadersofCalhounCountywantedtounderstandhowhomelesspeopleandvacanthousingexistedalongsideeachother.Inseekingtoimproveruralhousing,stateandcommunityleaderswantedtodiscernwhysomesmalltownsappearedtohavebetterhousingstockthanothers.Inthe

Page 111: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CollaboratingforIowa’sKidscase,thetwogroupsthatsharedacommitmenttoimprovethestate’sK–12educationwerecuriousaboutwhyitwasdifficultforthemtoworktogether.

Thesecondinvolveslearningnotonlywhatpeoplethinkbutalsowhy.Thismeansilluminatingtheassumptionsandconclusionsthatpeopledrawfromwhattheyactuallydoandobserve.Onecommondiscrepancyemergesbetweenwhatpeoplethinkshouldhappenasaresultoftheiractionsandwhatactuallyhappens.Forexample,policymakersassumethatdrugbustsreducecrimewheninfacttheyreducethesupplyofdrugs,therebyincreasingthelikelihoodthatpeoplewillcommitcrimestogetthefewerandhencehigher-priceddrugsavailable.Differentpeoplealsointerpretthesamedatadifferently(theelephantanalogy),andyoucanhelpdeveloparicherpictureofthesystembypointingouthoweachinterpretationisvalidunderdifferentconditions.Inthehomelessnesscase,localshelterproviderssawtheimmediatebenefitstheyprovidedhomelesspeople,whilethoseinothercommunitieswhounderstoodbestpracticesforendinghomelessnessunderstoodthelong-termcostsofdependingonasheltersystemandtheneedtoredirectresourcestoaffordablepermanenthousingtosolvetheproblemmorefundamentally.

Thethirdscreenhelpsidentifycriticalsuccessfactorsorkeyindicators,andsystemsthinkingextendsthisprocessinseveralways.Itlooksforinterdependenciesamongthesefactorsinsteadofdescribingalaundrylistthatisdifficulttoprioritize.Itacknowledgesandintegratesquantitativefactorsthataremeasurablewithqualitativeonessuchashowpeoplethinkandfeel.Italsotranslatesoftenvaguefactorsthataredifficulttotrackovertime.Inthecaseoffoodaid,forinstance,itcantranslatethevaguefactorof“strategy”intothosefactorsthataretraceableovertime—suchasthelevelofinvestmentinlocalagriculture,whichisameasurableformofstrategyinendingstarvation.

Thefourthscreenhelpsyouidentifyrecognizablestories,basedonthesystemsarchetypesortheBathtubAnalogy,intheinformationyougather.Discerningthesestoriescanprovidethebasisforacomprehensivesystemsanalysis.Whiletheymightnotexplaineverythingthatishappening,theycanoftenbeexpandeduponandmodifiedtomakeidentifiablesenseofrich,complex,andsometimesconflictinginformation.

Page 112: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Don’texpect,though,tofindeverythingyouneedorwantintheinformationyoucollect.Itisimportanttorecognizethatpeoplecanlearnalotwithincompleteinformation.Allthedatayouwantarerarelyavailable,andyetpeoplehavetomakedecisionsandtakeactionsinanycase.Thisprocessacknowledgesthatinformationgapsdoexistandsuggeststwowaysofrespondingtothem.First,italwayshelpstoapproachsystemschangeasalearner.Peoplemakehypotheses,takeactions,andlearnmorefromtheiractionssothattheycanmakewiserchoicesthenexttime.Second,gapsinknowledgecantriggervaluableresearch.Askingwhatisnotknownandhowtofinditarepowerfulquestionsthatyoumightanswerbeforeorinparallelwithtakingnewactions,dependingonhowmuchriskandtimedelayyouarewillingtoaccept.

DevelopaPreliminarySystemsAnalysisInthissectionyouwillseehowpeopleworkingonarangeofissuesusedthetoolsofsystemarchetypesandtheBathtubAnalogytodeepentheirunderstandingofwhytheywerenotsucceedingdespitetheirbestefforts.Theseinsightsinturncreatedcatalyticconversationsaboutthenatureoftheirchallengesandwhattheycoulddotoovercomethem—topicsthatarethesubjectofthenextthreechapters.

Youwilllearnhowthesetoolsservedaseffectivebuildingblocksforevokingmorecomprehensiveandaccuratestories.Thereareseveralwaystoenrichprimaryplotlineswithmultipleplotsandsubplotsthatembracemoreoftherealitypeopleexperienceindealingwiththeseissues.Inparticular,youwillexploredifferentapproachesforbalancingpeople’sneedforinsightsthatarecomplexenoughtoembracetheirmanydiverseperspectiveswiththeirneedforthosesimpleenoughtobeunderstoodandactedupon.

ThissectionhighlightscasesthatexemplifyatleastoneofthefivemajorarchetypesortheBathtubAnalogyintroducedinchapter4.Youwilllearnaboutthecontextsthatbroughtpeopletogetherandtheinsightstheydeveloped,bothbasicandenriched,thatledtodeeperunderstanding.

FIXESTHATBACKFIRE

Page 113: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FixesThatBackfireisthestoryofunintendedconsequences.ItwasoneofthekeythemesinTheAfterPrisonInitiativeintroducedinchapter3.You’llrecallthatthisinitiativebroughttogetherahundredprogressiveleaders—activists,academics,researchers,policyanalysts,andlawyers—forathree-dayretreattoclarifywhatelsecouldbedonetohelppeoplesuccessfullyreentertheircommunitiesafterincarcerationandtoredresstheunderlyingeconomic,social,andpoliticalconditionsandpoliciesthatcontributetomakingtheUnitedStatestheworld’slargestincarceratoramongdevelopednations.ItwasconvenedbytheOpenSocietyInstituteandorganizedbyJoeLaurandSaraSchleyofSeedSystemstohelpOSIgainmoreinsightintotheeffectivenessofitsfundinginthisarea.MostoftheparticipantsattheretreatwereSorosJusticeFellowsorOSIgranteeswhocompetedforOSIfundingatthesametimethattheysharedacommitmenttocriminaljusticereform.

Participantsrecognizedthataprimarydriverofmassincarcerationwasnotthelevelofviolentcrimeitself,butthefearofothers(especiallypeopleofcolor)thatmanifestsasstructuralracismandthedenialofthesepeople’srights.Whilemassincarcerationtemporarilyrelievesthefear,asseeninbalancingloop1(B1)infigure7.1,italsoresultsovertimeinmoreandmorepeoplewhoareeventuallyreleasedfromprison(95percentofthoseincarcerated)withsignificantdisadvantagescausedbytheirprisonexperience.Theproblemsinclude:personaldemons,poorhealth,disruptionstofamilyandworklife,restrictionstobasichumanrights(suchaseducation,employment,housing,andvoting),andfailureofotherstounderstandtheirchallenges.Thesedisadvantagesinturnreduceaccesstosuchresourcesaseducation,housing,employment,andsocialsupport—therebyincreasingthelikelihoodthatmanywillcommitanothercrimewithinthreeyearsandbesentbacktoprison.Thiscanbeseeninreinforcingloop2(R2)infigure7.1.TheUSBureauofJusticeStatisticsreportsthat“Amongprisonersreleasedin2005in23stateswithavailabledataoninmatesreturnedtoprison,49.7%hadeitheraparoleorprobationviolationoranarrestforanewoffensewithin3yearsthatledtoimprisonment,and55.1%hadaparoleorprobationviolationoranarrestthatledtoimprisonmentwithin5years.”1

Page 114: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Inaddition,structuralracismbreedsmorefear(R3),asevidencedinpartbyamorerecentreportbytheSentencingProjectwhichfoundthat“whiteAmericansoverestimatetheproportionofcrimecommittedbypeopleofcolor,andassociatepeopleofcolorwithcriminality,”andthatforsomecrimestheoverestimationwas“by20–30percent.”2Thespiraloffearcontinues,eventhoughthecrimerateitselfhasactuallybeendroppingformorethantwentyyears.

Theparticipantsattheretreatwereengagedinmanydifferenteffortstoreformthecriminaljusticesystem—notonlythosehighlightedinfigure7.1,whichemphasizesprovidingservicestorecentlyreleasedprisoners.Theseeffortsincludeddevelopinginnovativeserviceprograms,sentencingreform,prohibitingre-incarcerationfortechnicalparoleviolations,andfightingthegrowingprisonlobbythatfavorsmassincarcerationforitsowneconomicbenefit.

Soasecondandricherdiagramwasdevelopedtorepresentadditionalviciouscyclesthatneedtobeinterruptedinordertoshiftthecoredynamicandtodescribethemorecomplexadvocacyrequiredtotransformthesystem(seefigure7.2).Massincarcerationcreateseconomicbenefitsthatresultinaprisonlobbysupportingthisfix(R4infigure7.2).Tightrestrictionsonparolestoreducethepoliticalriskofhighcaseloadsresultinmoretechnicalviolationsthatsendpeoplebacktoprison(R5).Acombinationoffearandrepeatoffensesincreasespoliticalresistancetoinnovationsthatcouldhelpformerlyincarceratedpeoplereentersocietymoreeffectivelyandpreventsuchoffenses(R6).

Page 115: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE7.1RACISMANDMASSINCARCERATIONBREEDFEAR.Althoughmassincarcerationisaquickfixtopeople’sfearofbeingvictimizedbycrimescommittedbypeopleofcolor,itcreatesunintendedconsequencesthatfurtherincreasethisfearovertime.ModifiedfromadiagramdevelopedbySeedSystemsforOpenSocietyInstitute

Page 116: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE7.2ADDITIONALVICIOUSCYCLESPRODUCEDBYMASSINCARCERATION.Whenthediagraminfigure7.1isenrichedtoincludemorevariables,itshowsthatthreeotherviciouscycles—R4,R5,andR6—compoundtheFixesThatBackfiredynamic.ModifiedfromadiagramdevelopedbySeedSystemsforOpenSocietyInstitute

Thesetwodiagrams(alongwiththefinalbuildout“AnAddictiontoPrison”showninappendixC,figureC.1)providedparticipantsattheretreatwithacomprehensiveandsharedunderstandingoftheirrespectiveeffortsinmeetingcommonchallenges.Itenabledsometorecognizeandpotentiallydevelopmore

Page 117: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

collaborativewaysofreducingthefearthatdrivesover-incarceration—afearbasedinstructuralracism,notjusttheactualrateofcrime.Itgaveothersawayofcommunicatingthesocietalcostsofmassincarcerationtopolicymakersinthehopeofbuildingabroadercommitmenttotheunderlyingconditionsandbeliefsdrivingit.

SHIFTINGTHEBURDEN

ShiftingtheBurdenisthestoryofunintendeddependency.ItissimilartoFixesThatBackfireinthatquickandseeminglyobviousfixestoaproblemtendtomaketheproblemworseovertime.ThekeydistinctionisthatmanyofthepeoplecaughtinaShiftingtheBurdendynamicagreeonwhatamorefundamentalsolutionshouldbebuthavetroubleimplementingit.

ThiswasthecaseinCalhounCounty,wherethecommunityhadmadelittleprogressinendinghomelessnessdespitemanyyearsofeffort.Thoseprovidingemergencyandshelterservicestothehomelesshadbeenmeetingregularlyforyearsbuttendedtoworkindependentlyandcompeteforfoundationandpublicdollarsinsteadofcollaborating.

ThepromiseofstatefundingandlocalplanningmoneysmotivatedcommunityleaderstotakeadifferentapproachbyagreeingtocometogethertodevelopaTen-YearPlantoEndHomelessness.Theyappliedsystemsthinkingtounderstandwhyhomelessnesspersistedinthecountyandwhytheyhadbeenunabletoimplementbestpracticesusedbyothersaroundthecountry.ThesepracticesemphasizedHousingFirst,wherecommunitiesinvestindevelopingsafe,affordablepermanenthousingandencouragehomelesspeopletoliveinitwithoutfirsthavingtomeetotherconditions,suchassubstance-freeliving.Thishousinghaseasyaccesstosupportservicesforthosewhoarementallyillorsufferfromsubstanceabuse.Forthoseforcedtoliveonthestreetsforeconomicreasons,anotherpartofthesolutionfocusedoneducationandeconomicdevelopment.

Theinitialsystemsmap,depictedinfigure7.3,showsoneofthecriticalrealizationspeoplemade:Theshelterandemergencyresponsesystemsthatboth

Page 118: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

providersandthehomelessdependedonwerequickfixesandinfactconstitutedpartoftheproblem(B1).Whilethesesupportshelpedthehomelesscopewiththeirsituation,theywerealsoclearlytemporary.Peoplecouldstayinsheltersforonlyalimitednumberofnightsbeforetheyhadtoreturntothestreets.SomemovedintothewoodsoutsidethemaincityofBattleCreekandsurvivedthereasbesttheycould.Manygotsick,especiallyinthewinter,andendedupintheemergencyroom;somecommittedanoffensethatledthemtospendanightinjail.Somespentnightssleepingonthecouchesofpeopletheyknew,butthatsolutionalsoworkedforonlyalimitedtime.

FIGURE7.3THEIRONYOFTEMPORARYSHELTERS.Becausesheltersandemergencysupportstempertheproblemofhomelessness,theyalsoreducepeople’smotivationtoimplementamorefundamentalsolutionthatcombinespermanenthousing,criticalservices,andemployment.Inaddition,viciouscyclescreatedbythequickfixesunderminethecommunity’sabilitytoimplementthefundamentalsolutionsevenifitwantsto.www.appliedsystemsthinking.com

Page 119: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Manypeopleclosetotheissuerecognizedatleastsomeoftheelementsofthebestpracticesusedinotherpartsofthecountry—criticalservices,permanenthousing,andemployment(B2).However,theyhadbeenunabletoimplementthesepracticeslocallyanddidnotunderstandwhy.Thecommunitydiscoveredthattheemergencysystemstheydependedontohelppeoplecopewithhomelessnesshadactuallyledtonegativeunintendedconsequencesthatunderminedpeople’sabilitytoimplementbestpracticesrequiredtoendit.

Thecopingmechanismsdescribedabovedecreasedthevisibilityoftheproblem,therebyreducingthecommunity’smotivationtoinvestinbestpractices(R3).Inaddition,shelterandemergencyserviceproviderswerefundedfortheworktheydidandhadlittleincentivetoexperimentwithnewwaysofdoingthingseitherindividuallyorincollaborationwithothers(R4).Forexample,shelterproviderswereoftenfundedonthebasisofthepercentageofbedssleptineverynight—eventhoughfullsheltersarefundamentallyantitheticaltotheespousedgoalofendinghomelessness.Donorsoftenunwittinglycontributedtotheproblembyrenewingfundingforthosewhosucceededinimplementingquickfixes.Thelossofproblemvisibilityandreinforcementofexistingfundingstreamsmadeitdifficulttomobilizeinvestmentinbestpractices,whichinturnincreasedhomelessnessandthefurtherdependenceontemporaryshelters.

Thisunderstandingledpeopletobegintomakesignificantshiftsinthecommunity’sshelterandemergencyresponsesystems.Forexample,inanunprecedentedmovetowardcollaboration,serviceproviderscollectivelyagreedtoredirecttheirnextroundofHUDfundingfromoneserviceprovider’stransitionalhousingprogramtoapermanentsupportivehousingprogramrunbyanotherprovider.TheirinsightsformedthebasisfortheTen-YearPlanthatwasacceptedandfundedbythestate.Asnotedinchapter5,intheplan’sfirstsixyearsofoperationfrom2007through2012,CalhounCountydidaremarkablejobofsecuringpermanenthousingforthehomeless,especiallyinthefaceoftheeconomicdownturnof2008–09.Homelessnessdecreasedby14percent(from1,658to1,419)despitea34percentincreaseinunemploymentand7percentincreaseinevictions.

Page 120: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

TheTAPIcasealsoincludesaShiftingtheBurdendynamic.Manyparticipantswereengagedinthefundamentalworkofresettlement,whichtheydefinedasstrengtheningcivicinstitutionsandinfrastructureandfacilitatingcross-agencycollaborations,aswellassupportingformerprisonerstoleadproductivelives.However,itwasdifficulttoimplementthesesolutions,andthereformersfoundithelpfultodevelopasharedpictureoftheobstaclestheyfaced:thebarrierstoresettlementthatunderminedtheirworkdirectlyandthreatenedthesafetyofresidentsinthepoorminorityneighborhoodstowhichmostmenandwomenreturnedafterprison,aswellastheinvestmentinprisonsthatcouldotherwisebedirectedtowardthestrengtheningofinstitutionsinthesepoorercommunities.ThispictureisshowninappendixC,figureC.1.

ShiftingtheBurdenisthestoryofaddiction.Thestoriesofbothhomelessnessandimprisonmentshowhowpolicymakerswhowanttoprotectsocietyfromaddicts(homelesspeoplesufferingfromsubstanceabuseordrugaddictswhocommitcrimes)canironicallybecomeaddictedtosolutionsthatexacerbatethesesocialproblemsinthelongrun.Shelterstendtodivertmoneyfromaffordablepermanenthousing,andget-toughpoliciestakemoneyawayfromtheverykindsofprogramsandinstitutionbuildingthatcouldmorepermanentlyreducecrime,thefearofcrime,andmostsignificantlythefearof“theother.”ThegrowingawarenessofthisconsequenceinthecriminaljusticesystemispromptingevensomeconservativepublicofficialsandtheirthinktankstoquestionthevalueofmassincarcerationandpublicpoliciessuchastheWaronDrugsandmandatoryminimums.3

LIMITSTOGROWTH

In2011,adiversegroupofstateandlocalleadersgatheredtoexplorewaysofincreasingtheavailabilityofaffordableruralhousinginSouthDakota.Themeetingwassponsoredbythestate’sRuralLearningCenter(RLC)andDakotaResources,anonprofitdedicatedtoeconomic,community,andleadershipdevelopment.Participantsincludedrepresentativesofnonprofiteconomic

Page 121: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

developmentcenters;governmentatthefederal,state,andlocallevels;anddevelopers,lenders,andRealtorsfromtheprivatesector.

Housingisacriticalsuccessfactorinthedevelopmentofviableruralcommunities.Affordableandappropriatehousingaffectsandisaffectedbyotherfactorssuchasjobs,health,andthequalityofeducationintheseareas.Theavailabilityofthishousingisespeciallyimportantindrawinginyoungprofessionalstosettleinandreenergizethesecommunities.

Providingsuchhousingwaschallengingsincethecoststodevelopsufficientlyattractivehomesoftenexceededwhatmortgagelendersinthecurrentregulatoryenvironmentwerewillingtofinance.AlthoughtheRLChaddonealotofworktowriteadetailedplaybookforovercomingtheseobstacles,itwastoomuchinformationforcommunitiestoabsorbandtakeadvantageof.Therefore,thepurposeofthemeetingwastogaininsightintowhyitwassodifficulttoincreasetheviableruralhousingstockandtotargetjustafewhigh-leverageactionspeoplecouldtaketoexpandit.

Iworkedwiththeconvenerstodraftasystemsmapinadvanceofthemeetingthatmightbetterilluminatetheproblemandpossiblesolutions.Sincecertaincommunitieshadachievedmoresuccessinthisareathanothers,itmadesensetodescribethedynamicsintermsofLimitstoGrowth.Weidentifiedacoregroupofengines,orpumps,thatcouldpropelhousingandeconomicgrowthbutwereweakenedbybalancingforces,orseepage,thatreducedtheeffectivenessofthesepumps.Ifthepumpscouldnotproducehousingandeconomicgrowthquicklyenough,thentheseepagewouldlimittheireffectivenessmoreseverely.Therefore,itwasimportanttoprimethepumpspowerfullyandrapidlyenoughtoovercomethenegativeeffectsofseepage.

Page 122: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE7.4RURALHOUSING:CORELIMITTOGROWTH.Withoutsufficientinfrastructurefordevelopment,communitieshavedifficultyattractingprivatedeveloperstomeethousingneedsandtherebyattractnewpeopleandjobs.

Figure7.4showsthecorepumporengineofgrowthandtheprimarysourceofseepageorlimittothisgrowth.Successfulcommunitiesbuiltaffordablehousingthatattractedpopulationandjobs,whichinturnincreasedhousingneedandledtoadditionalhousingdevelopment(R1).Theyhaddonethisinpartbycreatingthelocalinfrastructureforeconomicdevelopment.However,lesssuccessfulcommunitiesdidnothavesufficientinfrastructuretomeettheirhousingneeds,whichmadeitmoredifficultforthemtoattracttheprivatedevelopersrequiredtoincreasehousingandgrow(B2).

Page 123: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE7.5RURALHOUSING:PRIMINGADDITIONALPUMPS.Additionalreinforcingrelationshipsamongjobs,housing,taxrevenue,education,andpopulationenhancecommunitygrowth.

Thecommunitiesidentifiedotherenginesofgrowthaswell,asdepictedinfigure7.5.Theyrecognizedthathousingdevelopmentwouldinandofitselfcreatejobs(R3infigure7.5),andthatjobswouldincreasethetaxrevenuesrequiredtoattractmorejobs(R4).Theavailabilityofaffordablehousingwouldalsoincreasetaxrevenuesdirectly(R5).Taxrevenuescouldbeusedtostrengthenthecommunityinfrastructurefordevelopmentandincreaseavailablefunding,whichwouldinturnreducedevelopmentcostsandincreasethenumberofwillingandablebuyers,therebyincreasingpotentialreturnsondevelopmentandhousingitself(R6).Attractingnewpeopletothecommunitywouldincreaseeducationalopportunitiesandattractmorepeople(R7),andincreasingjobs

Page 124: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

wouldhavethesamepositiveeffectonpopulation(R8).Finally,theavailabilityofaffordablehousingwouldincreasehomeownershipandengagecitizenstocontributetobuildingvitalneighborhoods,therebydrawinginevenmorepeopletothecommunity(R9).

Page 125: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE7.6RURALHOUSING:SEEPAGES.Ifcommunitiesdonotinvestsufficientlyintheirinfrastructurefordevelopment,theywillnotbringinthefundingrequiredtoincreasepotentialreturnsondevelopment.Moreover,iftheydonotcreatenewjobsatapacesufficienttoattractadditionalinvestors,theirperceivedeconomicprospectswilldeclineovertime,therebyfurtherlimitingtheirabilitytogrow.

Primingthepumpsinfigures7.4and7.5neededtooccurquicklyenoughtoovercomeadditionallimitsorseepages.Absentadequateinfrastructurefordevelopment,communitiescouldnotattractthefundingrequiredtoincreasepotentialreturnsondevelopment(B10infigure7.6).Iftheydidnotcreatenewjobsatapacesufficienttoattractnewinvestors,thecommunity’sperceivedeconomicprospectswoulddecline,therebyreducingthenumberofwillingandablebuyersovertime(B11infigure7.6)andtheavailabilityoffunding(B12).Moreover,weakeconomicprospectsincreasedtheriskofunder-appraisingthehousingstock,therebydiscouragingpotentialhomeowners(B13).

Insummary,thesystemsanalysisenabledpeopletorealizethatcommittingtoearlyinvestmentsinbuildingorstrengtheningtheircommunities’infrastructurefordevelopmentwasacriticalfirststeptoachievegreatergrowth.

SUCCESSTOTHESUCCESSFUL

Alsoin2011theWilliamCasparGrausteinMemorialFund(WCGMF)convenedamulti-stakeholderprocesstocreateablueprintforastatewideearly-childhooddevelopmentsysteminConnecticutthatworksforallchildrenandfamilies,regardlessofrace,income,orability.Theinitiative,calledRightfromtheStart,wasdesignedandfacilitatedbytheInteractionInstituteforSocialChange.Itpulledtogetheradvocates,serviceproviders,publicagencystaff,privatefunders,andcommunitymembers/parentstoexploreandmapwhatexistedatthattime,createavisionandunderlyingvaluesforanequitablesystem,andidentifykeyleveragepointsforchange.

Severalmonthsintotheprocess,Iwasaskedtointroducetheparticipantstosystemsthinkingasawayoflearningmoreaboutwhytheirpreviouseffortstocreateamoreequitablesystemhadfailedbeforejumpingtoproposenewlegislationandstructures.Askingthemselveswhytheyhadnotsucceededuntil

Page 126: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

nowdespitetheirbesteffortsmotivatedmanyofthemtoaskmoreprobing“why”questionsaswell.Sincetheywerealsocommittedmembersofthesystem,Iencouragedthemtoconsiderhowtheirownwell-intentionedactionsmightcontributetotheexistingdynamicsandwhattheymightdodifferentlyinadditiontorecommendingchangesthatthegovernorandotherelectedofficialsshouldmake.

Myencouragementstoslowdownandreflectmoredeeplybeforeactingandtoconsidertheirownroles,howeverunintentional,inperpetuatingthecurrentsystemwereconfusingtodesignteammemberswhoviewedtheirchartersolelyintermsofrapidlyproducingrecommendationsabouthowothersshouldchange.Afewchosetoleavetheprojectatthispointwhilethemajoritytookupthechallengetolearnmorebeforeleapingahead.

InasubsequentsessionIproposedasystemsmaptohelpthemanswerthesequestions.Sincethecoreissuetheypresentedhadtodowithinequity—thefactthatchildrenwhostruggledinschoolwereprimarilyfromdisadvantagedblack,Latino,andpoorwhitefamilies—IframedtheunderlyingdynamicasSuccesstotheSuccessful.Specifically,theeducationandincomeopportunitiesforpeoplewithhigherincomesandpoliticalinfluencetendedtoincreaseovertimeastheysuccessfullygeneratedmoreresourcesfortheirchildren,whileparentsatrisk(whetherduetolowerincomes,instability,and/orlackofserviceavailability)tendedovertimetofinditincreasinglydifficulttoprovidetheirchildrenwiththeearlyfoundationstheyneededtobecomesuccessful.Moreover,thestrongcommunitybondsthatpoorerpeopleoftenformtocompensateforlimitedaccesstootherresourcesfrayedfurtherastheyandtheirchildrenstruggledmoreandmoretosucceed.ThesedynamicsaresummarizedbyloopsR1,R2,andR3infigure7.7.

Page 127: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE7.7EARLYCHILDHOOD:THERICHGETRICHER,ANDTHEPOORGETPOORER.Childrenofparentsofprivilegearemoreabletoexperiencetheeducationalandsubsequentincomeopportunitiesthatleadtolong-termsuccess,whilechildrenofparentsatriskarelessabletogeneratethesesameopportunitiesovertime.

Page 128: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE7.8EARLYCHILDHOOD:THEGAPINCREASES.Parentsatriskfinditdifficulttogeneratesufficientincomebecauseoftheirparentalresponsibilities,andtoprovidethesafeandsupportiveenvironmenttheirchildrenneedtothrive.

Parentsatriskhaddifficultysupportingtheirchildrentosucceedforseveralreasons,furtherfleshedoutinfigure7.8.Theyhadmoreproblemsaccessingaffordablequalitychildcare,whichreducedtheirabilitiestogeneratemoreincome(R4infigure7.8).Becausetheythemselvesweremorevulnerable,itwasalsoharderforthemtoprovidethephysical,emotional,andcognitivesupportsrequiredtohelptheirchildrengrow,especiallyatanearlyagewhen

Page 129: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

thosesupportsaremostnecessaryforhealthydevelopment.Asaresult,theirchildrenwerelesspreparedforschoolandovertimelessabletosucceedinschoolandthusgeneratetheearningpowerrequiredtoescapebecomingparentsatriskthemselves(R5).

FIGURE7.9EARLYCHILDHOOD:THEGAPINCREASESEVENFURTHER.Theconservativenatureofwealthcombinedwithnegativeimpactsofincomeinequalityonpubliccoffersundermine

Page 130: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

theprospectsofchildrenatriskevenmore.

Directnegativeimpactsonthechildrenofparentsatriskwereexacerbatedbythetendenciesofparentsofprivilegetojustifyandholdontotheirwealth,therebywideningthegapbetweenrichandpoorchildrenevenfurther.IntheUnitedStates,thoseinthetop20percentincomebracketgiveawayonly1.3percentoftheirincome,whilethoseinthebottom20percentgiveaway3.2percent.4DacherKeltner,aprofessorofpsychologyattheUniversityofCalifornia–BerkeleyandfounderoftheGreaterGoodScienceCenter,hasfoundthat,justasgenerousdeedstendtoinspiregreatergenerosity,theconservativeeffectsofincreasedwealthseemtocurbtheinstinctforhelpfulness.5Inaddition,theweakerconsumptionandlowereducationallevelscreatedbygrowingincomeinequalityhavereducedtheavailabilityoffundsthatcanbeinvestedinsocialservicesandlocalinfrastructure.Thisnextlevelofinterrelatedissuesismappedoutinfigure7.9.

Ascollectivewillingnessandabilitytosupportthesesocietalresourceshavedeclined,lessmoneyhasbecomeavailableforearlyinterventionstohelpchildrenatrisk,whichreducestheirschoolreadiness,andovertimethecompetitivenessoftheUSworkforce,therebyputtingmorepressureontotalUSresourcesandfurtherreducingtheabilitytopubliclyfundsocialinvestments(R6infigure7.9).Reducedschoolreadinessalsoleadstolowerearningpowerovertime,highersocialcosts,andanevengreaterdrainonpublicresources(R7).Inaddition,wheninvestmentsinsocialservicesandlocalinfrastructurearecut,poorcommunitiessufferevenmore,leadingtogreaterinequalityofopportunity(R8).

Theparticipantsalsoinquiredmoredeeplyintotheunderlyingbeliefsandassumptionsthatkeptthesedynamicsinplace.Theyrealizedthattheproblemofstructuralracism,wherebywealthywhitepeopleareviewedandtreatedmorefavorablythanpoorminorities,extendedtoassumptionsabouthowtocorrectthisimbalance.Inparticular,alternativesolutionstendedtofavortheviewsofthoseinpowerthat:

•Formalstructures(suchasnewlawsorinstitutions)shouldbeemphasizedoverinformalstructures(suchassocialnetworksinpoorcommunities).

Page 131: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Statecontroloverthenewsystemismorecrucialthanlocalcontrol.•Quantitativemeasuresaremoreimportantthanqualitativeonesinassessingwhatworks.

Aprofoundinsightforthosewhowantedtoredesignthesystemwasthattheytendedtosubscribetotheseassumptionsthemselves,oftenagainsttheirbetterjudgment.

Theparticipantsthenusedtheiranalysistoidentifyfourleveragepoints,corecommitmentsthatcontinuetogroundtheworkofeveryoneinvolvedandinspirethemtoengageinthelong-termworkofsystemschange.Thesewere:

•Addressinequitiesandconsciouslyempowerthedisadvantaged.•Supportlocalcommunityaction—recognizinghowdifferentserviceprovidersandfamiliesarealreadyconnectedandhowtheyshouldbeconnected.•Payattentiontothewholechild,whichincludespayingattentiontothewholefamily.•Begininterveningwithchildrenasearlyaspossible.

ThehighlevelandsupportingrecommendationsofRightfromtheStarthavebeenincorporatedintotheguidingprinciplesofthestate’sOfficeofEarlyChildhood,anagencythatdidnotexistwhenthegroupbeganitswork.Theyarereinforcedbyacommunicationscampaignthatincludesvideoswithdiscussionstartersforcivicdialogue.

DavidNee,theexecutivedirectorofWCGMFatthetime,observedthattheworkhad“enabledourgranteestocollaboratemoreeffectivelyandtargetchangeswherewecanhavethegreatestimpactcollectively.Ithelpedallofusdistinguishsymptomsfromthedisease,appreciatethevalueofimprovingrelationshipsamongpartsofthesystemmorethanimprovingsubsystems,andunderstandthatweareallpartofthesystemandthereisnooneoutsideit.”Asaresultofthisunderstanding,thefundhasstrengtheneditsownwilltodealdirectlywithracismasanunderlyingproblem.

ACCIDENTALADVERSARIES

Page 132: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

ThechallengesexperiencedbytheIowaDepartmentofEducationandthestate’sAreaEducationAgencies(AEAs)aretypicaloforganizationsthatwanttobeabletoworktogethermoreeffectivelybutfinditdifficulttodoso.TheAccidentalAdversariesarchetypeprovidedawayforthetwopartiestosurmounttheirdifferencesinpartbecauseitgavethemanopportunitytoclarifyhowastrongerpartnershipwouldcontributetobothofthem.Italsoenabledthemtoseehowtheproblemstheyexperiencedwitheachotherwerenotintentionallycausedbytheircounterpart.Finally,itshowedthemhowtheycouldcapitalizeonthebenefitsofpartnershipwithoutunwittinglyunderminingeachother.

BecauseAccidentalAdversariesoftenfailtoappreciatethevalueoftheirpartnershipatfirst,theybenefitfromlearningtoclearlyarticulateit.Inthiscase,bothsidesacknowledgedthatthegoalsoftheIDEweretoprovideguidanceandgovernancefortheoveralleducationsystemacrossthestate.TheyfurtheragreedthatthegoalsoftheAEAsweretoensurequalityeducatorsinqualityschoolsystemsfortheirrespectivegeographicareas.Havingaffirmedeachother’sgoals,theydeterminedthatasuccessfulIDEcontributedclarityofstatewidedirectionandoutcomesforstudentsandeducatorstoAEAs,andthatsuccessfulAEAswouldsupporttheIDEbydevelopingacoherent,equitablesystemacrossthestate.TheprospectsoftheIDE–AEApartnershipareshownasavirtuouscycle(R1)infigure7.10.

Page 133: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE7.10IDE–AEA(SYSTEM)RELATIONS:PROSPECTSFORPARTNERSHIP.BothgroupscanbenefitfromthedirectionalclarityprovidedbyIDEandthecoherenceandequityensuredbyAEAs.

Havingdefinedthevalueoftheirprospectivepartnership,theythenuncoveredhoweachparty’sactionstoimproveitsownperformanceunintentionallyunderminedtheeffectivenessoftheotherparty—outlinedinfigure7.11.WhenIDEfeltunabletoprovideadequatedirectionforthestatewideeducationsystem,itdesignedandrolledoutnewprogramstotheAEAs(B2).WhiletheexistenceofthesenewprogramsfeltlikeprogresstoIDE,theseinitiativesmadeitmoredifficultforAEAstoallocatetheirlimitedresourceswithrespecttotheareainitiativestheyalreadyhadinplace.Inordertofollowthroughonitsowninitiatives,eachAEAwouldeithercustomizeIDE’sprogramstofitintotheAEA’scurrenteffortsordisengagefromthestaterollout(B3).TheindependentAEAs’responsesincreasedIDE’sdifficultiesinworking

Page 134: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

withinconsistent,low-quality,anddisconnectedsolutionsatthestatelevel—reducingIDEsuccessandpromptingittoonceagainintroducenewprograms.ThecombinedactionsofthetwopartiesresultedintheAccidentalAdversariesviciouscycleR4.

FIGURE7.11IDE–AEASYSTEMRELATIONS:ACCIDENTALADVERSARIES.NewprogramscreatedbyIDE,andAEAs’effortstocustomizeordisengagefromtheseprograms,reducebothgroups’effectiveness.

TheIDE–AEAstoryrepresentsacommontensionbetweenheadquartersandfieldunitsinanysystem.Headquarterstriestoachieveitscentralizedgoalsbyrollingoutnewinitiativestothefield,andfieldorganizationscustomizeordisengagefromtheseinitiativesinordertobetterconcentrateonexistingeffortstoservetheirownrespectiveclients.InthiscasetheIDEandAEAsappliedtheir

Page 135: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

newinsightstocreatewin–winsolutionsthatsupportedeachoftheirgoalswhileultimatelybetterservingtheirmutualbeneficiary—Iowa’skids.

THEBATHTUBANALOGY

Asintroducedinchapter4,theBathtubAnalogyisusefulwhenattentionmustbegiventotheflowsoffactorsaswellastheirlevels.Itisalsohelpfulwhenanissueunfoldsinstagesovertime.MichaelGoodmanandIusedtheanalogyasacomplementtocausalloopdiagrammingintheendinghomelessnesscase,andhehasalsouseditrecentlytobuildontheruralhousingcasedescribedintheLimitstoGrowthstorymentionedearlierinthischapter.

Inthehomelessnesscase,wenoticedthattheproblemofhomelessnessproceededinstages.First,outoftheoverallpopulationofCalhounCounty,certainpeopleweremoreatriskofbecominghomelessthanothers—whethertheriskgrewoutofpoverty,unemployment,domesticviolence,substanceabuse,orsomecombinationofthesefactors.Whileemergencysupportserviceswereprovidedtopeopleatrisk,acertainnumberofpeopleinthisgroupbecamehomeless.HomelesspeoplealsoenteredthiscommunityafterbeingreleasedfromanearbyVeteransAdministrationhospitalandprison.Theymovedintotemporaryhousingandoftenrecycledovertimethroughdifferentprovisionallocations:ashelter,underthebridgeorinthewoods,stayingatothers’homes,intheemergencyroomorlocaljail.Fewofthepeopleintemporaryhousingbrokeoutofthisloopandmovedintopermanent,safe,affordable,andsupportivehousing.WegeneratedtheBathtubdiagramshowninfigure7.12tohelpthemvisualizetheissue.Theinsightthattheplanningteamgotfromthatdiagramisthatthecommunityneededtoreducetheinflowsintohomelessnessandacceleratetheoutflowsfromitinordertoresolvetheprobleminasustainableway.

OneofthecommunitiesthatparticipatedintheSouthDakotagatheringtoincreaseaffordableruralhousingwasthecommunityofFaulkton.Likemanyorganizationsandcommunitiescommittedtomanagingacomplexchange,theFaulktoncommunitygroupcommissionedastudythatproposedalengthylistof

Page 136: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

recommendationstoaddressitsownneedsforhealthyandvibranthousing—seventeeninthiscase.Althoughtherecommendationswerecategorizedintomultipleclusters,theyseemedunwieldygiventhecommunity’slimitedresources.

FIGURE7.12ENDINGHOMELESSNESSINCALHOUNCOUNTY.Inordertodecreasehomelessness,itisimportanttoreducetheflowofpeopleatriskandsubsequentlybecominghomeless,andtoincreasetheflowofpeoplemovingintopermanenthousing.www.appliedsystemsthinking.com

MichaelGoodmanreviewedthereport’sfindings(aspartofaDakotaResourcesRegionalSystemsEngagementPilotfundedbytheBushFoundation)andhelpedpeoplefocusonafewstrategiesthatcouldhavethegreatestimpact.HeusedtheBathtubAnalogytoshowtheavailabilityoffourtypesofhousing(seefigure7.13):

•Newandsoundhousingthatovertimedevelopedminorproblemsandbecamehousinginneedofminorrepairs.•Housinginneedofminorrepairsthat,whenleftunattended,developedmajorproblemsandrequiredmajorrepairs.

Page 137: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Housinginneedofmajorrepairsthat,ifleftunattended,becamedilapidatedhousingthatneededtoberehabilitated.•Dilapidatedhousingthatneededtoberemovedtomakewayfornewhousing.

FIGURE7.13IMPROVINGHOUSINGQUALITYINFAULKTON,SD.Inordertoimprovelocalhousingquality,itisimportanttospeeduptheflowsofnewhousingstockandteardowns,whileslowingdownhousingdecaythroughrepairsandrehabilitation.InnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearning

Thecityrealizedthat28percentofitshousingstockwasinneedofmajorrepairsorrehabilitation.Theyalsodeterminedthroughsomesimplesimulationexperimentsusingthehousingstocksandflowsthatthisnumberwaslikelytogrowto38percentintwentyyearsifcurrenttrendscontinued.Asaresult,thecommunity’sseventeenrecommendationsevolvedintojusttwoprimarystrategiesformeetingitshousingneeds:

•Decreaseorslowdowntheoutflowsofgoodhousingstockbyrepairinghousingwithminorandmajorproblems,andbyrehabilitatingdilapidated

Page 138: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

housingwherefeasible.•Increaseinflowstothehousingstockbybuildingnewhousingandremovingunrepairabledilapidatedhousingfornewdevelopment.

BothCalhounCountyandthecommunitygroupofFaulktonbenefitedfromusingtheBathtubAnalogyasacomplementtocausalloopdiagrammingandotherformsofanalysis.InthecaseofCalhounCounty,theShiftingtheBurdenarchetypepointedoutthatthecommunity’sunintentionaldependenceontemporarysheltersasawaytohelppeoplecopewithhomelessnessactuallyundermineditsabilitytoendhomelessness.InthecaseofFaulkton,theinsightthatemergedfromtheLimitstoGrowtharchetypeintheRuralLearningCenter–DakotaResourcesgatheringabouttheneedforsufficientcommunityinfrastructurefordevelopmentevolvedintoafocusontwoprimarystrategiesthatcommunitiescouldimplementtofurtherdeveloptheirhousingstock.

HowtoBalanceSimplicityandComplexityOneofthechallengesindevelopingasystemsanalysisisthatitshouldbesimpleenoughtobeunderstoodbypeopleyetcomplexenoughtocapturetherichnessoftheirdiverseperspectivesandexperiences.Inthisfinalsectionwewilllookatseveralwaysofachievingthisbalance:

•Onearchetype—noadditionalloops.•Onearchetype—additionalloopsallenrichingthesamestory.•Multiplearchetypes—oftenusingmorethanonediagram.•Bathtub—eitheronitsownorincombinationwithoneormorearchetypes.•Interdependencemapping.•Computermodelingandsimulation.

Ofthesixcasesdescribedabove,theAccidentalAdversariesstorythatcontributedtoCollaboratingforIowa’sKidsinfigures7.10and7.11isthebestexampleofthetremendousleveragethatcanbeachievedusingjustonearchetypewithnoadditionalloops.Evenhereitwashelpfultodevelopthestoryintwosteps(ProspectsforPartnershipandAccidentalAdversaries)sincethearchetypeembedsfourloops:avirtuouscycle,twooverlappingFixesThatBackfire,andaviciouscycleresultingfromtheoverlap.

Page 139: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

TheaffordablehousinganalysisforSouthDakotaandtheearly-childhooddevelopmentandeducationsystemforConnecticutareexamplesofonearchetypewithmultipleloopsthatallamplifyandenrichthecoretheme.Intheaffordablehousingcase(figures7.4through7.6),therearemultiplegrowthenginestryingtoprimethepump(theRloops)thatareunderminedbymultiplelimits(theBloops)—yetthecombinedloopstellthesameessentialstoryofLimitstoGrowth.Intheearly-childhoodcase,therearemultipleviciouscyclesinfigures7.7through7.9thataggravatetheSuccesstotheSuccessfuldynamic.

TheAfterPrisonInitiativeusestwoarchetypestoexplainthereentrychallengesfacingformerlyincarceratedpeople:FixesThatBackfire(figures7.1and7.2)andShiftingtheBurden(appendixC,figureC.1).

Forthosereadersinterestedinresolvingidentity-basedconflictssuchastheIsraeli–Palestinianissue,youcanreviewthreediagramsinappendixC(figuresC.2,C.3,andC.4)thatexplainhowsuchconflictsunfoldfromacombinationofthreedynamics:ShiftingtheBurden,ConflictingGoals,andEscalation.

TheBathtubAnalogyrepresentsanotherandsometimesmoreaccessiblewayofunderstandingcomplexity.InthehealthyandvibranthousingexamplepresentedtothecommunityofFaulkton(figure7.13),thisanalogywasextremelyusefulonitsown.IntheendinghomelessnesscaseinCalhounCounty(figure7.12),theBathtubwasusedtocomplementtheShiftingtheBurdenstorydescribedinfigure7.3.

Forthosewhowantasimplerformofstorytelling,interdependencemappingoffersanotherwayofconnectingmultiplefactorsandtheorganizationsassociatedwiththem.Onesimplevariationaskspeopletofirstlistthemanyfactorsaffectinganissueandthendrawrelevantconnectionsamongthefactors.Figure7.14representssuchanexampleforendinghomelessness.

Page 140: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE7.14SIMPLEINTERDEPENDENCEMAPRELATEDTOHOMELESSNESS.Interdependencemapsareaneasywaytoraisetheawarenessofdiversestakeholdersthattheirworkisconnected.

Alternatively,peoplecanclarifytheirinterdependenciesbydrawingalinearinput–outputdiagramoraBathtubpicturesuchastheoneinfigure7.12.Oncepeopledrawthismap,theycanplacetheirrespectiveorganizationsonitbylocatingthosefactorsorstagesthattheirworkmostaddresses.Stakeholderswhoseethemselvesonthemapcanthenlookatthebiggerpictureandreflectonthefollowingquestions:

•Whoseworkinthissystemdowesupport?•Whoseworkinthissystemsupportsourown?•Whatcurrentrelationshipswoulditbehelpfulforustoimprove?•Whatnewrelationshipswoulditbehelpfulforustodevelop?

Sinceasystemimprovesbystrengtheningtherelationshipsamongitsparts,thissimpleexercisecanbeveryeffectiveinjump-startingtheprocess.

Ontheotherhand,computermodelingandsimulationarehelpfulwhenthegoalsaretocapturemorecomplexity,validatethatthesystemsmapmodelsknownbehavior,rapidlytestdifferentpolicyalternatives,paintdifferentscenarios,andquantifytheoutcomes.Thesemodelsincorporatebothstock-and-flowdynamicsaswellasnonlinearandtime-delayedfeedbackloops.6Auser

Page 141: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

interfaceorsimulatorcanbedevelopedthatenablesstakeholderstoeasilyexploreanddiscusstheimplicationsofvariousoptions.

Byusingsomeformofsystemsmappingtoshowthebigpicture,andengagingstakeholderstobuildorrefinethemapasmuchaspossible,peoplelearntostimulatemoreproductiveconversationsabouttheissue.Thenewconversationsincreasecollaborationbecausetheyilluminatesuchcriticalfactorsaspersonalresponsibility,interdependence,timedelayandthedifferencebetweenlong-termandshort-termimpacts,unintendedconsequences,andlocalversussystemwideoptimization.Designingandfacilitatingtheseconversationstobuildsupportforasystemsanalysisisthetopicofthenextchapter.

ClosingtheLoop•Learningfromadiversegroupofstakeholdersnotonlybuildsunderstandingbutalsodevelopstherelationshipsrequiredtoshifthowthesystemoperates.•Organizeinformationbylisteningforwhatiscurious,distinguishingmeasurabledatafromhowpeopleinterpretthesedata,identifyingkeyvariables,andlookingforrecognizablestorylinesorarchetypes.•StakeholderscanusesystemarchetypesandtheBathtubAnalogytobegingaininginsightintowhytheirchronic,complexproblemexists.•Thereareatleastsixwaystodevelopasystemsanalysisthatisbothsimpleenoughtobeunderstoodbymanypeopleandcomplexenoughtocapturetherichnessoftheirdiverseperspectivesandexperiences.

Page 142: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—CHAPTER8—

FacingCurrentReality:BuildingSupportbyBringingtheSystemtoLife

Eventhoughsystemsmapscanbuildunderstanding,peopledonotnecessarilyembracetheinsightstheyoffer.Forexample,someparticipantsinTheAfterPrisonInitiativeretreatquestionedthevalueofthemapsincethosewhointheirmindsreallyneededtochange—inthiscasethepolicymakerswhosupportmassincarceration—werenotpresent.InRightfromtheStartandothersituations,peopleaskhowtheinsightscanbecommunicatedsincetheyarepresentedinavisuallanguagethatisforeigntothosenotfamiliarwithit.

Theinsightsgeneratedbysystemsmapscanbedifficulttoacceptandcommunicate.Onereasonisthatthemapsareavisualformofstorytelling,yetnotallpeoplearevisualthinkers.Removedfromdiscussionaboutwhattheyreveal,themapscanalsoappearabstractandimpersonal,wheninfactthestoriestheyareintendedtocommunicatearedeeplyhuman.Moreover,mostmapschallengepeopletotakemoreresponsibilityforthecurrentsystemthantheybelieveisnecessary.Finally,evenifpeopleunderstandandaccepttheimplicationsofthemapsforthemselves,theyareoftennotsurehowtoconveythis“foreignlanguage”tostakeholderswhohavenotbeeninitiallyexposedtoit.

Youcanmeetthesechallengesby:

•Engagingpeopletodeveloptheirownanalysisasmuchaspossible.•Surfacingthementalmodelsthatinfluencehowpeoplebehave.•Creatingcatalyticconversationsthatstimulateawareness,acceptance,andalternatives.

Page 143: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

EngagePeopleinDevelopingTheirOwnAnalysisEngagingpeopleindevelopingtheirownanalysisbuildsownershipfortheworkandincreasesitsaccuracy.Ifyouareleadingamappingeffort,it’simportanttoproceedwiththatengagementgoalinmind.Whenusingcausalloopdiagrams,beginbydraftingyourowninitialanalysisbasedoninterviews,focusgroups,andpreviouswrittenobservationsabouttheissue.(Themapsinchapter7representthetypesofanalysesyoumightdeveloponyourownorwithacoach.)Theninviteasmallgroupofrepresentativestakeholders,suchasasteeringordesigncommittee,tocommentonhowthepreliminarymapbothincreasestheirunderstandingandcanbestrengthened.

Ratherthanpresentyourfindingsfromtheoutset,considerhowthisgroupmightarriveatsimilarinsightsontheirown.Youcouldshowthemthetemplateforasystemsarchetypethatseemsparticularlyrelevanttotheirsituation(suchasShiftingtheBurden,AccidentalAdversaries,oroneoftheothersintroducedinchapter4)andaskthemtofillinthetemplatetoilluminatetheirstory.OryoucouldwritesomeofthekeyvariablesonPost-itnotesandaskthemtodrawthemostimportantcause-and-effectrelationshipsbetweenthevariables.Afterhavingdevelopedtheirowninsights,peoplecanmorereadilyinterpret,internalize,andimproveyourdraft.Ifyouareconsultingtoaprojectandcannotworkwithasmallgroupfirst,thenithelpstoaskoneormorepeopleinvolvedwiththeprojecttocommentontheinitialmapandrefineitbeforeengagingalargeraudience.

Presentingeffectivelytoalargergroupbeginswithanchoringtheanalysiswithastory.Forexample,onestoryinCalhounCountyrevolvedaroundamanwhohadcycledcontinuouslythroughthecommunity’svariousformsoftemporaryshelterformanyyears:officialshelters,thestreetorwoods,emergencyrooms,jails,andthecouchesofthosewhoknewhim.Peoplewantedtohelpthismangetonhisfeetandfindmorepermanenthousingbutseemedunabletodosodespitetheircaringandefforts.Whywasitdifficultforthecommunitytobreakthecycleoftemporarysheltersandongoingvulnerability?Whatmighttheydodifferentlytocreateamorepermanentandsatisfyingsolution?

Page 144: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Beforeofferingamapthatmighthelpanswerpeople’squestions,itisimportanttopositionthisdiagramasacatalystforconversationandlearning—notasadefinitiveanswer.Remindpeoplethattheywillbeaskedtocommentonanymappresentedtoensureitreflectstheirexperience.Then,afterthepresentation,invitethemtooffertheirfeedbackandsuggestions,whichIfindeasiesttorecordonflipchartsinthemomentandlaterincorporateintothemapoffline.

Whenpreparingandpresentingyourmap,practicereversetranslation—convertingthesystemslanguageusedtodevelopthemapbackintoEnglish.Inordertomakethemapaccessibletopeopleunfamiliarwithsystemslanguage,ithelpsto:

•Refinethemapfirsttoremovealljargonandcommunicatetheloopsineverydaytermssuchasquickfix,viciouscycle,andgrowthengine.Intheruralaffordablehousingcase,reinforcingloopsweredescribedas“pumps”andbalancingorlimitingloopsas“seepage”toevokeanagriculturalmetaphor.

•Introducerelevantarchetypesasstoriescommontothehumanexperience—notjusttothepeopleinthisparticularsituation.Thishelpspeoplebothrecognizethestoryandrelieveanyshameassociatedwithbeingcaughtupinit.

•Honorpeople’sbestintentionsbyacknowledgingwhattheywanttoaccomplishthroughtheiractions.Forexample,theywanttoreducestarvationandbelievethatsendingfoodisthehumaneandrightwaytoaccomplishthis,ortheywanttogrowtheircommunityandbelievethatbuildingnewhousingisthekeytoattractingnewpeopleandjobs.

•Thenshowhowthesewell-intentionedactionsfallshortbecauseoffactorsandconsequences,oftenlonger-term,thathavenotbeentakenintoaccount.Aswelearnedearlier,forinstance,thosewhoprioritizefoodaidwhentryingtoendstarvationunintentionallyunderminelocalagriculturaldevelopmentbydrivingdownfoodprices.Theyalsocreateaspikeinpopulationgrowthyearslaterasyoungchildrensavedbyfoodaidbecome

Page 145: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

ofchild-bearingagethemselves,oftenleadingtogreaterfamineduetothecompromisedlocalfoodsystem.

•Introducethediagraminstagesusing“builds.”Forinstance,inchapter7wesawseveralstoriesunfoldinstages—includinganAccidentalAdversariesstorythatfirstshowedtheprospectsofpartnership,andthenshowedhowthepotentialpartnersaccidentallybecomeadversaries.Eachdiagramhasitsownrecognizablethemeasthestoryexpandsanddeepens.

Alingeringquestionyoumighthaveatthispointis“howdoweknowifthemapisaccurate?”Onewaytoestablishaccuracyistoengagepeopleindevelopingitusingtheguidelinesinthissection.Anotheristoensurethatthemapanswersthefocusingquestionposedatthebeginningoftheprocessandexplainswhykeyvariableshavetrendedovertimeastheyhave.Athirdtestismorevisceral:Ausefulmapoftenevokespalpablesilenceonthepartofparticipants.Thesilencecommunicatesmanyfeelingsinrapidsuccession:

•Humilitythatcomeswithrecognizingthat,inthewordsofWaltKelly’sPogo,“Wehavemettheenemy,andheisus.”•Despairfromacknowledgingthatwecannolongerkeepdoingwhatwehavebeendoingandexpectadifferentresult.•Hopethatwecanfindamoreeffectivewayforwardbythinkingandactingdifferently.

Mapscanevolvetonotonlyenrichandexpandpeople’sunderstanding,butalsosometimestoshiftitprofoundly.Forexample,abreakthroughinsightfortheTAPIparticipantswasthatthefearofbeingvictimizedbycrimecandrivebehaviorinthecriminaljusticesystemmorethanthelevelofcrimeitself.Inaverydifferentsituation—theefforttorebuildcivilsocietyinBurundiafterits1990–94civilwar—NGOsthatdevelopedasystemsanalysisoftheconflictdeterminedthatthedrivingfactorinthewarwasnotwhichtribe,TutsisorHutus,wasinpower,buttheabilityofanelitefromeithertribetodominatethemajoritythroughethnicmanipulation.

SurfaceMentalModels

Page 146: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

ThecomedienneLilyTomlinonceobserved,“Realityisnothingmorethanacollectivehunch.”Onepurposeofsystemsthinkingistomakeourhunchesexplicitsothatwecanquestionandmodifythemtobetterachievewhatwedeeplycareabout.Indeed,mycolleagueMichaelGoodmansays,“Systemsthinkingismentalmodelsmadeexplicit.”Ithinkofitasaformofcollectivemeditation:slowingdownourthinkinglongenoughtoreflectonwhetheritservesus.

Ourassumptionsandbeliefsdrivemanyofthecause–effectrelationshipsweexperience.Forexample,considerifdownsizinginanorganizationreducesorincreasesthemoraleoftheremainingstaff.Theobviousansweristhatcuttingstaffdecreasesmoralebecausetheotheremployeeswonder,“Whenistheothershoegoingtodrop;willIbefirednext?”or“Myworkloadhasincreasedevenfurtherasaresult,andIcan’tdoitall.”Alternatively,themoraleofremainingemployeesmightincreasebecausetheythink,“Wehavefinallyremovedthedeadwood,”and“IamconsideredimportanthereandnowhaveanopportunitytoshowevenmoreofwhatIcando.”Differentassumptionsdetermineiftherelationshipbetweendownsizingandmoraleisunderminingorconstructive.

Theseperceptionsarethenextdeeperleveloftheicebergthatexplainscurrentreality(seefigure3.2).Youcanclarifythembyaskingparticipantstolookatthecausalloopdiagramandanswerthequestion,“Whatarethekeyassumptionsthatkeepthisdynamicinplace?”Ithelpstobeginbyidentifyingassumptionspeopleholdaboutwhycurrentsolutionsorwaysofdoingthingsshouldwork:“Thisquickfixshouldsolvetheproblembecause...”or“Thisengineofsuccessshouldassurecontinuedgrowthbecause...”

Encouragepeopletolocateeachmentalmodelonaspecificcause–effectlinkifpossibleandidentifywhichstakeholdersholdthatparticularbelief.Placingmentalmodelsdirectlyonthediagrambringssystemsmapstolife.1Forexample,figure8.1showsthementalmodelsvariousstakeholdershadinCalhounCountythatcontributedtoperpetuatinghomelessness.Youcanseethateveryoneheldreasonableassumptionsthatunexpectedlycontributedtotheveryproblemtheywantedtosolve.

Sometimespeople’sassumptionsaresodeeplyembeddedintheoveralldynamicthatitiseasiertolistthemseparately.Forexample,participants

Page 147: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

committedtoredesigningtheearly-childhooddevelopmentandeducationsysteminConnecticutuncoveredmentalmodelsthatconstrainedhowtheythoughtaboutpotentialsolutionstotheirproblem—eventhoughtheirownexperienceoftencontradictedtheassumptionstheyheld.Theyrecognizedthattheirbeliefsreflectedthoseoftheirpoliticalsponsors,whothoughtthat:

•Formalstructures(suchasnewlawsorinstitutions)shouldbeemphasizedoverinformalstructures(suchassocialnetworksinpoorcommunities).•Statecontroloverthenewsystemismorecrucialthanlocalcontrol.•Quantitativemeasuresaremoreimportantthanqualitativeonesinassessingwhatworks.

Atothertimesitcanbeilluminatingtogobeyondthespacelimitationsofthoughtbubblesanddescribehowdifferentstakeholdersseetheproblemingreaterdetail.OnedramaticexampleofthiswasprovidedbyJonWalz,adoctorandformerfellowintheKentuckyPublicHealthLeadershipInstitute.Dr.Walzdistinguishedtherespectiveviewsofpatients,medicalproviders,andpoliticianswhofacedthechallengeofhowtoendsmoking.Ifindhisworkespeciallyilluminatingbecausehedescribessixdifferentlensesorparadigmsthatsummarizepeople’sdiverseviews:defiance,fear,entitlement,desperation,ignoranceorfunctionalilliteracy,andrecognition(seetable8.1below).Isuspectthattheseparadigmspervadepeople’sviewsonotherissuesaswell,althoughonlyoneofthem—thelensofrecognition—promisesaconstructivesolution.

Page 148: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE8.1MENTALMODELSINCALHOUNCOUNTY.Addingmentalmodelstoasystemsmapnotonlybringsthemaptolifebutalsohelpsexplainwhycertaindynamicspersist.BridgewayPartnersandInnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearning

Page 149: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CreateCatalyticConversationsThepurposeofthesystemsmapandinquiryintounderlyingmentalmodelsistohelpstakeholderscreatecatalyticconversations.Insteadofre-creatingfamiliardiscussionsaboutlimitedresources,whoistoblame,andwhoelseneedstochange,thesenewconversationsaredesignedtodeepenawareness,cultivateacceptance,anddevelopnewalternatives.Peoplelearntoseethesystemmorecomprehensivelyandusefully,accepttheirresponsibilityfortheissue,andexpandtheirviewsaboutwhattheymightdodifferently.

TABLE8.1.MENTALMODELSAROUNDSMOKINGCESSATION

DEEPENINGAWARENESS

Thesystemsmapbuildsdeeperawarenessbyhelpingstakeholdersunderstandtheoftennon-obviousinterdependenciesandlonger-termconsequencesthat

Page 150: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

underminetheirbestintentions.Addingmentalmodelstothediagramorconversationsurfacesunquestionedassumptionsthatpeoplecannowtest.Thefollowingquestionspromptcatalyticconversationsbasedontheseinputs:

•Whatnewinsightshaveemergedaboutwhytheproblempersistsdespiteourbesteffortstosolveit?Howdoweseethingsdifferently?•Whatissurprising?•Howisourgroupinpartresponsible,albeitunwittingly,fortheissue?•Whatchallengesdothesedynamicspresent?•Whatnewopportunitiesdotheyoffer?

Youcanalsodevelopmorespecificquestionsthatpromoteinquiryintocertaindynamics.Forexample,aschooldistrictthatsawSuccesstotheSuccessfulastherootcauseofitschallengetoreducetheachievementgapbetweenrichandpoorstudentsfoundenormousvalueinconsideringtwoquestions:

•Whydosomestudentswhocomefromprivilegedfamiliesperformpoorlyinschool?•Whydosomestudentsfromfamilieswithlimitedmeansperformwellinschool?

Thesequestionspromptedthedistricttorealizetherearecertaincriticalsuccessfactorsthatenableallstudentstobesuccessful—nomatterwhattheirbackgrounds.Theseinclude:rolemodels/mentorswhobelieveinthem,familyandcommunitysupportstructures,resiliencyandself-regulation,andhonoringindividuallearningdifferences.

CULTIVATINGACCEPTANCE

Withgrowingawarenesscomenewchallenges.Understandingwhyasystemoperatesthewayitdoesdespitepeople’sbesteffortstoimproveitrequiresthattheymovefromblametoresponsibility,independencetointerdependence,andshort-termtolong-termthinking.Acceptingresponsibilityforyourcontributiontothecurrentdynamicsisthefirststepbecauseitsupportsinterdependenceand

Page 151: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

long-termthinking.Itisanactofself-empowerment—for,asChurchillobserved,“Thepriceofpowerisresponsibility.”

Twoseeminglyoppositestancessupportpeopleindevelopingthisacceptance:compassionandconfrontation.Youneedcompassiontorecognizethatmanyproblemsareself-created,howeverunintentionally.Mostpeopledonotwanttoincreasestarvationorperpetuatehomelessnessordestroytheenvironment.Ithelpstoassumethateveryoneisdoingthebesttheycanwithwhattheyknowatthetime.Ontheotherhand,itisequallyimportanttorecognizethat,atsomelevel,peopleknownotwhattheydoandcanbetheirownworstenemies.Theyimplementquickfixesandassumethatshort-termimprovementswilllast,ortheybuildenginesofsuccessandassumethatthissuccesswillsustainitselfindefinitely.Theytrytooptimizetheirpartofthesystemundertheassumptionthatthisisthebestwaytooptimizethesystemasawhole.

Raisingawarenessandacceptancearenotintendedtoreplaceblamingotherswithblamingyourself.Rathertheyaredesignedtoenablepeopletoachievemoreofwhattheydeeplycareabout—becauseitisultimatelyeasiertochangeyourselfthantochangeothers(nomatterhowtemptingthelatternotion).Weknowfromexperiencethatbothcompassionandconfrontationarevitalelementsofchange—aswhenwetalkabouttheneedfor“toughlove”or“ruthlesscompassion.”

Asaconvenerorfacilitatorofsystemschange,itisalsoimportanttofosterconfrontationwithoutcontempt.Confrontationmeansraisingpeople’sawarenessoftheiractionsinserviceofhelpingthemachievewhatreallymatterstothemaswellasyourself.Confrontationisfoundedoncompassion.Bycontrast,contemptseekstoshameothersintotakingactionsthatserveyouindependentofwhatisimportanttothem.Contemptoftenshowsupforpeopleinpower,andittendstoevokedefensivenessratherthanawillingnesstochange.

Onegroupthatisfrequentlyviewedwithcontemptispubliclyelectedofficials.Theiractionsoftenappeartobesolelymotivatedbytheirdesiretogetreelected,andtheydothatbyappealingtothepublic’sfearsandshort-terminterestsratherthantotheirconstituents’bestinterests.Iraisedthisconcern

Page 152: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

oncewithaformercongressmanwhohadsuccessfullyservedhisgenerallyconservativedistrictfortwentyyears,andthenwentontochairhisstate’snonprofitmanagementassociation.Iaskedhimhowhehadnavigatedthetensionbetweengettingreelectedandhisownhighervaluetoservethegreatergood.Hetoldmethatheviewedgettingreelectedasabaseline,anecessaryconditiontoservehisconstituency,butnotasanendinitself.Similarly,asthefamousmanagementtheoristPeterDruckerpointedout,profitisanecessaryconditionforbusinesssuccessbutnotitspurpose,justasweneedoxygentobreathebutbreathingisnotourpurpose.Ibelievethatmanyofficialscouldbeinfluencedonthebasisofappealingtotheirhighervaluesandthinkingabouthowtohelpthemgetvoteswithinthatcontext,ratherthanbyassumingthattheyareonlymotivatedbyimmediateself-interestandbelittlingtheirviews.

Lestthissoundnaive,thinkofleaderssuchasMartinLutherKingJr.andNelsonMandelawhoconfrontedthepowerstructurewhileatthesametimeempathizingwithit.Theyappealedtothehumandignityandhigheraspirationsofthoseinpowerandsoughttopartnerwiththemonthatbasis.Whencollaborationfailedasaninitialstrategy,theywerewillingto“fightfirewithfire”butthenreturntocollaborationwhentheiradversariesdemonstratedmorewillingnesstoactaspartners.

DEVELOPINGNEWALTERNATIVES

People’swillingnessandabilitytodevelopalternativesolutionsarefoundedonawarenessandacceptance.Whenpeoplebecomeawareofwhytheirownprevioussolutionshavefailed,andtheyaccepttheirresponsibilityforthesefailures,thentheyaregenuinelyopentoconsideringnewwaysofthinkingandacting.

Whenyoufollowthepreviousstepsinthischapter,peoplenaturallybegintothinkaboutnewsolutions.Itisfinetoencouragefreshthinkingatthispoint.Atthesametime,thereisoneotherfactortheyneedtoconsiderbeforecommittingtoalternativeactions.Theoneotherpotentialobstacletomovingforwardispeople’sunderlyingintentions.Mostofushavemultiplecommitments—for

Page 153: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

example,thedesiretomeetourmoreimmediateself-interestsandthedesiretorealizeourhigheraspirations.Whenthesecommitmentscompete,wewilltrytomoveforwardonlytobedrawninanotherdirectionandthenfeelpulledbackandforthbetweenthetwo.

Thenextchapterhelpspeopleexaminethesepullsmorecloselyandresolvetheseconflicts.Supportingpeopletoaligntheiractionswiththeirhighestaspirationswithconsideredawarenessofhowtoalsoaddresstheirshort-terminterestsisvitaltoreleasingtheirfullenergiesinserviceoflastingchange.

ClosingtheLoop•Whilesystemsmappingcanincreasepeople’sunderstandingofwhytheyhavebeenunsuccessfuldespitetheirbestefforts,itisnotalwayseasytomotivatepeopletoactontheseinsights.•Tohelppeoplecapitalizeonthepowerofsystemsthinking,itisimportanttoengagethemasmuchaspossibleindevelopingtheanalysis.•Thereareseveralwaystomakesystemicinsightsaccessibletothosewhoarenotfamiliarwiththiswayofthinking.•Identifyingthementalmodelsthatshapesystemdynamicsnotonlybreatheslifeintoananalysis,butalsoprovidesasourceofleverageforshiftingthesedynamics.•Theultimatepurposeofsystemsmappingistocatalyzenewconversations.•Theseconversationsaremostproductivewhentheydeepenawareness,cultivateacceptance,anddevelopnewalternatives.

Page 154: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—CHAPTER9—

Page 155: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

MakinganExplicitChoice

Thebroad-basedteamworkinvolvedinsolvingcomplexsocialproblemsrequires,aswe’venowseen,aligningdiversestakeholderswithacommonpublicpurpose—eventhougheachmayhavedifferentprivateagendas.Inchapter6,forinstance,wesawtheconflictsthatalmostalwaysemergeincoalitionstryingtoendhomelessness.Everyonehasdifferentprimaryconcerns:Electedofficialsworryaboutcontainingcoststokeepvotersupport;downtownbusinesspeopleworryaboutkeepinghomelesspeopleawayfromtheirstorefronts;andshelterprovidersworryaboutfillingbedstokeeptheirfunding.Theapproachrecommendedinchapter6toalignthesedifferentinterestsistoestablishcommongroundbyclarifyingpeople’ssharedaspirationandtheirinitialpictureofcurrentreality.Buttheworkdoesn’tstopthere.

Whiledevelopingcommongroundisvital,itcanmisstheevendeeperchallengeofaligningpeoplewiththemselves.Thediversityofconcernsheldbydifferentstakeholdersmakesitdifficulttonotonlyalignpeoplewithoneanother,butalsotoaligneachstakeholder’shighestaspirationwiththeirownimmediateself-interests.

Mostpeoplearepulledbetweenachievingwhattheymostdeeplycareaboutandmeetingshort-termgoals.1Wewanttorealizeourdivinenaturewhilealsoensuringthatwemeetmorebasicneedssuchaseconomicsecurity,belonging,andrecognition.Evenourdesiretohelpothersrelievetheirimmediatesufferingcanconflictwithhelpingthesesamepeoplebecomeindependentlysecureandfulfilledovertime.Thesubsequentquestionforthosewhowantsocialchangeishowtosupportpeopletorealizetheirhighestaspirations,particularlywhenthese

Page 156: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

divergefromtheirmoreimmediateconcerns.Howdowehelppeoplemakeanexplicitchoiceinfavorofwhattheymostprofoundlywant?

Theansweristoconnectpeopleevenmorecloselywithboththeiraspirationsandcurrentrealitybyuncoveringthebottomoftheiceberg—thepurposethatinspiresthemand,oftenbycontrast,thepurposethatshapestheireverydayactions.Bybecomingmoreawareofbothpurposes,peoplecanmakeamoreconsciouscommitmenttotheirhighestaspirationswithfullawarenessofthepotentialcosts,notonlythebenefits,ofrealizingthem.Inordertoalignstakeholdersmostpowerfullyaroundtheiravowedpurpose,itisimportanttohelpthemmakeaninformedchoicetocommittothispurposeinfulllightofwhatitmighttaketogetthere.Makingthischoiceispivotaltoaligningpeople’senergiesinserviceofmeaningfulchange.

Youcanlearntocreatethisalignmentbysupportingpeopletotakefoursteps:

•Understandthattherearepayoffstotheexistingsystem—acaseforthestatusquo.•Comparethecaseforthestatusquowiththecaseforchange.•Createsolutionsthatserveboththeirlong-termandtheirshort-terminterests—ormakeatrade-offwiththerecognitionthatmeaningfulchangeoftenrequireslettingsomethinggo.•Makeanexplicitchoiceinfavoroftheirhigherpurposebyweakeningthecaseforthestatusquoandstrengtheningthecaseforchange.

UnderstandPayoffstotheExistingSystemSystemsareperfectlydesignedtoachievetheresultstheyareachievingrightnow.2Atfirstglance,whenwelookathowdysfunctionalexistingsystemscanbe,thispremiseseemsabsurd.Forexample,whywouldpeopledesignasystemthatperpetuateshomelessness,increasesstarvation,orundermineschildren’sabilitiestolearn?Theanswerthatemergesfromasystemsanalysisisthatpeopleareaccomplishingsomethingtheywantnow,somethingotherthanwhattheysaytheywant.Theyarereceivingpayoffsorbenefitsfromthestatusquo,andtheyareavoidingcostsofchange.

Page 157: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Payoffstoanexistingsystemincludequickfixesthatworkintheshortruntoreduceproblemsymptomsandtheimmediategratificationthatcomesfromimplementingthem.Insystemsthatunwittinglyperpetuatehomelessness,someofthepayoffstotheexistingwaysofworkingarereducedvisibilityoftheproblemduetotemporarysheltersthatkeeppeopleoffthestreetsoroutofthepubliceye,reducedseverityoftheproblembecausesomeformsofshelterexist,goodfeelingsonthepartofbothshelterprovidersandfundersthattheyarehelpingpeopleinneed,andcontinuedfundingforthesheltersystem.

Costsofchangethatpeopleprefertoavoidincludefinancialinvestment,thediscomfortoflearningnewskillsandcreatingdifferentwork,havingtoactinterdependentlyinsteadofindependently,andbeingpatientwhilewaitingforinvestmentstodemonstratereturnsovertime.Inthecaseofendinghomelessness,someofthecostspeopleavoidareinvestinginsafe,permanent,affordable,andsupportivehousing;closingsheltersorsignificantlyshiftingtheirmissionandwork;confrontingfearsonthepartofcitizensthattheymighthaveformerlyhomelesspeopleasneighbors;andconfrontingfearsonthepartofhomelesspeoplethattheymightnotbeabletoadjusttopermanenthousing.

Thepayoffsoftheexistingsheltersystemandthecostsofchangingitcombinetoyieldacaseforthestatusquoofhelpingpeoplecopewithhomelessness.However,thiscaseforthestatusquoactuallyundermineseffortstorealizetheavowedpurposeofendinghomelessness.

ComparetheCaseforChangewiththeCasefortheStatusQuoThecaseforchangeincludesthebenefitsofchangingandthecostsofnotchanging.Theseareofteneasierforpeopletoclarifythanthebenefitsofnotchangingandthecostsofchange.Peoplehavealreadybeenthinkingabouttheirvisionforadesiredfuture,andtheycanalsoimagineanegativefuturewheretheproblemsthatconcernthemarenotaddressed.

Inordertobuildthecaseforchange,youcanaskpeoplewhatbenefitswouldbederivedfromrealizingtheirvision—benefitsfortheirconstituentsandsocietyasawhole,fortheirpartnersandotherstakeholders,andforthemselves.Thoseinvolvedintryingtoend(versuscopewith)homelessnessmightrespond:

Page 158: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Reducedcostsfortheemergencyresponseandsocialservicesassociatedwithchronichomelessness—includingshelters,hospitalbills,andsubstanceabusetreatment.•Reducedunemploymentcostsforpeoplewhoexperienceepisodichomelessnessbecausetheyhavelosttheirjobsandabilitytopayforhousing.•Abilitytoreceivestateandfederalfundsformeetingbest-practicerequirementstoreducehomelessness.•Positivefeelingsassociatedwithprovidingpeoplewithpermanenthousing.

Then,tohelppeopleunderstandthecostsofnotchanging,youcanaskthemtopainttheirnightmarescenario—todescribetheworstthatcouldhappeniftheydonothingdifferentlynow.Forthosesamepeopleworkingtoendhomelessness,thecostsofnotchanginginclude:

•Alltheabovecostscontinuetoincrease.•Lostfundingcausedbyfailingtomeetgovernmentrequirementsforimplementingbestpractices.•Lowerqualityofstreetlifeleadingtoeconomicdecline.

Inordertohelppeoplecomparethecaseforchangewiththecaseforthestatusquo,ithelpstocompleteacost–benefitmatrix,asshownintable9.1.

Thecost–benefitmatrixhelpspeopleunderstandatanevendeeperlevelwhychangeisnotoccurringdespitetheirbestefforts.Itdepictstheoftenhiddencaseforthestatusquo—onethatiscurrentlystrongenoughtooverridethecaseforchangeandperpetuatethewaythingsare.

CreateBoth/andSolutions—orMakeaTrade-OffPeopleideallywanttohavetheircakeandeatit,too:Theywouldliketokeepthebenefitsofthestatusquowhilealsorealizingthebenefitsofchange.Indeed,both/andsolutionsarepreferablewheretheycanbefound,andthereareanumberofmethodssuchasPolarityManagementforcreatingthosesolutions.3

Intheefforttoendhomelessness,therearehundredsofcommunity-basedcontinuumsofcarethroughoutthenationprovidinghousingandservicesforhomelesspeople.Componentsmayinclude:streetoutreach,emergencyshelters

Page 159: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

(leastpermanent),transitionalhousing(supportingchronicallyhomelesspeopletopreparetoliveinpermanenthousing),rapidrehousing(helpinghomelesspeoplequicklymoveintopermanenthousing,usuallyintheprivatemarket),permanentsupportivehousing(permanent,affordable,safehousingcombinedwithsupportiveservicesforchronicallyhomelesspeople),andservicesonly.Therecanbeaplaceforallthesealternativesaslongastheoverallsystemisincentivizedtoprovidepeoplewithpermanenthousingasquicklyaspossible.

TABLE9.1.COST–BENEFITSMATRIXFORENDINGHOMELESSNESS

However,moreoftenthannot,peoplehavetomaketrade-offs.Theyhavetodecideifwhattheyaspiretoisworthgivingupatleastsomeofwhattheyhave.Asmuchasweprefernottoletgoofanythingtohaveevenmore,wealsounderstand“nopain,nogain,”“thereisnosuchthingasafreelunch,”and

Page 160: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

“investingnowforthefuture.”Notonlydosystemsexhibitatendencyforbetter-before-worsebehavior(forexample,throughquickfixesthatunderminelong-termeffectiveness),butthereverseisalsotrue.Thingsoftenhavetogetworse(ormoredifficult)beforetheygetbetter.Wehavetoletgoofsomethingsuchascomfort,security,andindependencetohavewhatwewantevenmore.Bycontrast,theunwillingnesstoletgoofsuchbenefitstothestatusquoisthegreatestobstacletochange.

LyndiaDownie,thepresidentandexecutivedirectorofBoston’sPineStreetInn,oneofthemostrespectedsheltersinthecountry,realizedthattheinnneededtototallytransformitsmissioninordertotrulytacklehomelessness.4

Shediscoveredthat5percentofthehomelesspeopleinhershelterstookupmorethanhalfofthebedsonanygivennight,andthatthesewerethechronicallyhomelesswhomostneededpermanenthousing.CommittedtoHousingFirst,whichcentersonprovidinghomelesspeoplewithpermanenthousingquicklyandthenprovidingservicesasneeded,sheconvincedherboardtotransformtheinn’smissionfromemergencyshelterprovidertorealestatedeveloperandlandlord.Shedescribesthe“hard-to-stomach”decisionforboththeboardandstaffthatinvolvedclosingsomesheltersandshiftingthoseresourcestobuyhomesinstead.

TheCOOofanonprofitcommittedtoprovidinghealthcareforthehomelessinamajorcityparticipatedwithallthestakeholdersworkingwiththehomelessinherareainanexercisetodevelopasystemsmap.Afterreviewingthemapandherorganization’splaceinthelargersystem,shechallengedherpresidentandboardatameetinglaterthatday,“Whatmightwehavetogiveupasanorganizationinorderforthewholetosucceed?”Ihadneverheardthequestionputsoboldlybeforeandrealizedthatitmakesanenormouslypowerfulstatement.

AsinthecaseofthePineStreetInn,sometimesthegreatestchallengebeginswithlettinggoofoneself-imageandreplacingitwithanother:

•TheAreaEducationAgenciesandlocalschooldistrictsinIowarealizedthattheyneededtogiveuptheiridentitiesasbeingsolelyresponsibleforthestudentsintheirrespectivegeographies.Inordertoimproveeducation

Page 161: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

outcomesacrossthestate,theyneededtoaccessthepowerofinterdependenceandletgoofameasureofindependencewithrespecttoeachotherandthestateDepartmentofEducation.

•Theregulatoroffoodsafetyinamajorcitylearnedthatitwasmoreeffectivewhenitshifteditsrolewithrestaurantownersfrombeinganenforcertobeinganinformationproviderandeducator.

•Acountypublichealthdepartmentincreaseditsabilitytoimprovethehealthofapoorcommunitywhenitshifteditsrolefrombeinganarm’s-lengthexperttobecomingthefacilitatorofacommunity-drivenprocess.

MakeanExplicitChoiceYoucansupportpeopletoletgomoreeasilybyfirstweakeningthecaseforthestatusquo,andthenstrengtheningthecaseforchange.

Asystemsmapnaturallyhelpsweakenthecaseforthestatusquobyshowinghowpeople’scurrentthinkingandactionstendtoleadthemawayfromachievingthepurposetheyaspireto.Forexample,theemergencyresponsesystemtocopewithhomelessnessunwittinglydivertsattentionandresourcesawayfromendingit.SeparatelyoptimizingpartsoftheK–12educationinIowaunderminesthestate’sabilitytoimproveeducationoutcomesforallitschildren.Dependingonenforcementasawaytomotivaterestaurantownerstoincreasefoodsafetymakesitmoredifficulttoachievethecooperationrequiredtodoso.

Strengtheningthecaseforchangeinvolvestwostepsthatdeepenpeople’sconnectionswiththeirhighestaspirations.Thefirstismorereceptiveinnatureandsupportspeopletostopandlistentowhatcallstothemmostauthentically.OttoScharmerdescribesthisaspresencinginhispioneeringbookTheoryU:LeadingfromtheFutureasItEmerges.5Hestates:

Presencing—theblendofsensingandpresence,meanstoconnectwiththeSourceofthehighestfuturepossibilityandtobringitintothenow.Whenmovingintothestateofpresencing,perceptionbeginstohappenfromafuturepossibilitythatdependsonustocomeintoreality.Inthatstatewestepintoourrealbeing,whowereallyare,ourauthenticself.

Page 162: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Presencingevokesadeepconnectiondescribedbydifferentnamesinvariouswisdomtraditions.Scharmerdescribesitasaneco-centeredview,onecapturedbythefamousphilosopherMartinBuberwhenheencouragedpeopleto“Listentothecourseofbeingintheworld...andbringittorealityasitdesires.”Asking,“Whatisbeingcalledofus?”canleadpeopleinasignificantlydifferentdirectionthanonebasedonthequestion“Whatdowewanttocreate?”—whichrisksfocusingthemonamoreego-centeredplace.

Thesecondstepindeepeningpeople’sconnectiontothecaseforchangeismoreactiveinnature.Itsupportspeopletoenvisiontheidealfuturethatprofoundlycallstothem.ThefollowingguidelinesforvisioningarebasedonprinciplesdevelopedbyRobertFritz,amasterofthecreativeprocess:

•Separatewhatyouwantfromwhatyouthinkispossible.•Focusonwhatyouwantversusdon’twant.•Focusontheresultsinsteadoftheprocess.•Includetheconsequencesyouwant.•See/experiencethevisioninthepresent.

Ithenaskpeopleseveralquestionstodescribeanidealtimeinthefuturewhenthevisionhasbeenaccomplished:

•Howarethepeopleyouwanttoservebeingserved?Whataretheydoing,seeing,feeling,hearing,andsaying?•Howdoesservingthesepeoplecontributetootherstakeholdersandsocietyasawhole?•Whatisyourgroupdoingdifferently?Whatareyouseeing,feeling,thinking,andhearing?•WhatamIpersonallydoingdifferently?Howdoesrealizingthisvisionservemyhighestself?

Weakeningthecaseforthestatusquoandconnectingpeoplemorecloselytothecaseforchangethroughbothdeeplisteningandvisioninghelppeoplemakeanexplicitchoiceinfavoroftheirhighestaspirations.

WhatCanYouDoWhenPeopleAreStillNotAligned?

Page 163: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Whilethefourstepsabovestimulatealignmentamongdiversestakeholders,theydonotguaranteeit.Onepossibleoutcomeisthatyoustillcannotfindcommongroundonwhichpeoplewanttobuildsomethingtogether.Inthiscaseithelpstorememberthealternativesproposedinchapter6:

•Collaborateindirectlybylegitimizingandaddressingothers’concerns,andthenseekingtoinfluencethemthroughmutuallyrespectedthirdpartiesand/ortoengagethematcriticalphasesintheprocess.•Workaroundthepeopleyoucannotworkwith.•Workagainstthemthroughsuchchannelsasadvocacy,legislativepolicy,andnonviolentresistance.

Itisalsoimportanttorecognizethatnoteveryoneneedstoagreeatonceonanewcourseofactioninorderforchangetooccur.EverettRogers’sfamousstudyonthediffusionofinnovationsconcludedthatattitudesshiftprogressivelythroughapopulation,andthatthe15percentwhocompriseinnovatorsandearlyadopterscanbuildsufficientmomentumforotherstofollow.6

Anotherpossiblescenarioisthatpeoplelookclearlyatthecaseforthestatusquoandthecaseforchange—anddeliberatelydecidetomaintainthestatusquowithfullappreciationofthefuturetheyaregivingupon.Thisiscertainlyavalidchoice,andIonlyencouragepeopleinthesecasestomakepeacewithwhattheyhave—sincetheyarenowconsciouslychoosingit.Thismeansacceptingallofcurrentrealityincludingitsundesirableaspectssincenoneofitislikelytochangeiftheydonotchangethemselves.

ClosingtheLoop•Itisdifficulttoestablishcommongroundwhenpeople’severydayactionsarenotalignedwiththeirhighestaspirations.•Helpingpeoplemakeanexplicitchoiceinfavorofwhattheymostprofoundlywantisapivotalstageinthechangeprocess.•Youcanenablepeopletoaligntheircurrentbehaviorwiththeiravowedpurposebysupportingthemtotakefoursteps:1.Understandthattherearepayoffstotheexistingsystem.2.Comparethecaseforthestatusquowiththecaseforchange.

Page 164: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

3.Createboth/andsolutions—ormakeatrade-off.4.Makeanexplicitchoiceinfavoroftheirhigherpurpose.

•Youstillhavealternativesavailablewhenstakeholdersdonotalignaroundahigheraspirationevenaftertakingthesesteps.

Page 165: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—CHAPTER10—

BridgingtheGap

Themedicalinformaticsunitofalargenonprofithealthcaresystemhadaclearandcompellingvision:assurethatthemostadvancedknowledgeaboutmedicalinformaticsbeincorporatedintothewiderorganization’sclinicalinformationsystems.Theunit’smembersincludeddoctorsandinformationsystemprofessionalswithadvanceddegrees,andtheyallhadapassionforthecontributionstheywantedtomake.However,despitestrongsupportfromseniormanagement,theunitfacedmultipleproblems,includingtryingtoconvincealooselyknitconfederationofhospitalstoimplementitsideas,makingcommitmentstothesehospitalsandthenfailingtodeliverhigh-qualitysystemsontime,andburningoutitsstaffintheprocess.Peoplewereovercommittedandunderdelivering.

Thechallengeofworkoverloadisnotlimitedtopeoplecommittedtosocialmissions.1However,theverynatureofhavinghighaspirations,limitedresources,anddifficultymeasuringprogressleadsnonprofitorganizationstonotonlyinspirepeoplebutalsoburnthemout.Itcanfeellikeanythingwedowillmovetheballforward,sowetrytodoeverythingwecanwithlittleheedtostrategicfocusandsustainableenergy.Thetendencytotrytodotoomuchiscompoundedwhendonorshaveunrealisticallyhighexpectationsofgranteesandgranteesagreetotheseexpectationsintheireffortstocompeteforfunds.Goalsescalate,prioritiesproliferateandshift,qualitysuffers,andtensionsmountaspeoplefailtocomethroughonagreed-upontasks.

Thegoodnewsisthatsystemsshiftnotasaresultofmakingmanychanges,butbysustainingfocusononlyafewchangesovertime.Thesechangesare

Page 166: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

calledleveragepointsbecausetheyleveragelimitedresourcesformaximumlong-termimpact.Insteadofdoingmoreandaccomplishingless,organizationsthattargetandimplementsuchinterventionsactuallyachievebetterresultswithlesseffort.Oncepeoplehaveclarifiedwheretheyareandcommittedconsciouslytowhattheyreallywant(withanappreciationofthetrade-offsinvolvedingettingthere),theyarereadytoidentifyleveragepointstobridgethegapandestablishaprocessforcontinuinglearningandoutreach.

IdentifyHigh-LeverageInterventionsInheroutstandingbookThinkinginSystems,DonellaMeadowsidentifiestwelveleveragepointsinascendingorderofimpact.2Thischapteroffersashorterandsomewhatrevisedlistthatpeoplecommittedtosocialchangehavefoundespeciallyuseful:

•Increaseawarenessofhowthesystemcurrentlyfunctions.•“Rewire”criticalcause–effectrelationships.•Shiftmentalmodels.•Reinforcethechosenpurposebyaligninggoals,metrics,incentives,authoritystructures,andfundingtosupportit.

INCREASEAWARENESS

Forthoseofusconditionedtotakeaction,itfeelsstrangetofollowtheadviceascribedtoPresidentDwightEisenhower,amongothers,whosaid,“Don’tjustdosomething;standthere.”Peoplewhoareimpatienttodefinesolutionsandactuponthemoftenfailtoappreciatethepowerofadeeperinsightintowhatistocatalyzechange.AsstatedintheNewTestament,“Thetruthwillsetyoufree”(John8:32).

Theframeworkusedinthisbookemphasizesthestageoffacingcurrentreality—uncoveringthenon-obviousinterdependenciesthatinfluenceperformance,appreciatingthedifferencesbetweentheshort-andlong-termimpactsofanaction,recognizingyourownresponsibilityforperpetuatingtheproblem,andacknowledgingthepayoffsofthestatusquo—asaleverforchange

Page 167: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

inandofitself.Whenthemedicalinformaticsgroupaboverealizedthattheirdifficultiesindeliveringqualityproductsontimestemmedfromtheirowntendencytoovercommit,theyacknowledgedtheimportanceofnegotiatingmorerealisticagreementswiththeirinternalcustomers.

Themappingtoolsinchapter7andcatalyticconversationquestionsinchapter8offernumerousexamplesofpeoplewhobegantoshiftasaresultofbecomingmoreawareofthesysteminwhichtheywereembedded.Bywayofreview,someofthemostpowerfulquestionstoraiseawarenessare:

•Whyhavewebeenunabletosolvethisproblemdespiteourbestefforts?•Howmightwebepartlyresponsible,albeitunwittingly,fortheproblem?•Whatmightbeunintendedconsequencesofourprevious—andproposed—solutions?•Whatarethepayoffstousofthecurrentsystem?•Whatmightwehavetogiveupforthewholetosucceed?

Wecanalsoappreciatethepowerofawarenessbyitsabsence.AsthecelebratedhistorianBarbaraTuchmanobserves,thepastisfulloffollieswhereleadersengagedin“thepursuitofpolicycontrarytotheself-interestoftheconstituencyorstateinvolved.”3Tuchmandefinedthecriteriaoffollyas:

•“Itmusthavebeenperceivedascounterproductiveinitsowntime,notmerelyinhindsight.”•“Afeasiblealternativecourseofactionmusthavebeenavailable.”•“Thepolicyinquestionshouldbethatofagroup,notanindividualruler,andshouldpersistbeyond‘anyonepoliticallifetime.’”

Whileherbookfocusesonfourhistoricalexamplestodemonstrateherposition—theTrojanWar,theruleoftheRenaissancepopes,theBritishlossoftheAmericancolonies,andtheUnitedStates’disastrousVietnamWar—itissadlyeasytosummonuprecentexamplesaswell.TheseincludetheIraqWarandourcontinuinghesitancetocombatclimatechange.Forexample,intheirrecentbookTheCollapseofWesternCivilization,historiansNaomiOreskesandErikM.Conwayuncoverapatternofdenialofclimatechangethatappearsdrawnfromthetobaccowars:“Insistthatthescienceisunsettled,attackthe

Page 168: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

researcherswhosefindingsthey[thedissenters]disliked,demandmediacoveragefora‘balanced’view.”4

REWIRECAUSE–EFFECTRELATIONSHIPS

Rewiringmeansalteringthecause–effectrelationshipsthatinfluencehowpeoplebehave.Inordertoshiftsystemdynamicsandthepatternsofbehaviortheyproduceinasustainableway,somefeedbackrelationshipsneedtobecreatedorreinforcedtomotivatenewbehaviororsupportwhatworks.Othersneedtobeweakened,broken,orevenreversedtodiscouragereactivebehaviorandencouragemorecreativeresponses.Inaddition,timedelaysneedtobeshortened,lengthened,ortoleratediftheycannotbechanged.

Oneofthebenefitsofmappingrealityintermsofarchetypesisthatweknowalotaboutrewiringcommonarchetypalpatterns.Thissectionfocusesonidentifyinggenericleveragepointsforthesepatterns.Itwillemphasizethefivecommonsocialchangearchetypesdetailedpreviously:FixesThatBackfire,ShiftingtheBurden,LimitstoGrowth,SuccesstotheSuccessful,andAccidentalAdversaries—andthensummarizetheinterventionsfortheotherarchetypesandtheBathtubAnalogy.Asinanyorganizationalorcommunity-buildingeffort,ithelpsfortheconvenerorfacilitatortointroducetheprinciplesorevenspecificrecommendationsandtheninvitetheinputofalargergroupofstakeholdersbeforemovingahead.

PeopleembeddedinFixesThatBackfirehavethreeoptions:

•Considerthenegativelong-termunintendedconsequencesofalternativequickfixes,andchooseafixthatappearstohavenoneoratleastfewersuchconsequencesthanthecurrentone.•Continuetousethequickfixifyoumust,butconsiderwaystomitigateitsnegativeconsequences.•Uncovertherootcauseoftheproblemsymptomthatafixisintendedtoaddress,andsolvetheunderlyingproblemifpossible.

Forexample,becausemassincarcerationleadstotheeventualreleaseofmostprisonerswithevenmoreseriousdisadvantagesandahighriskofrecidivism,onealternativethatisbeingaddressedismodifiedsentencing.Alternatively,if

Page 169: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

imprisonmentisnecessary,itisimportanttoactivelydesigntheprisonexperienceasaplaceforreform(throughcounseling,education,jobtraining,andcontinuedconnectionswithfamily)insteadofpunishment(withtheattendantbarrierstoreentryfacedbyformerlyincarceratedpeople).Athirdalternativeistoinvestinthedevelopmentworkthatbuildsstrongcommunitiessothattheydonotbecomebreedinggroundsfordespairandcriminalbehaviorinthefirstplace.

ThethreerewiringoptionsforShiftingtheBurdenare:

•Reducedependenceonthequickfix.•Increaseinvestmentinthefundamentalsolutionbycreatingavisionofanalternativefuturethatcompelsthisinvestmentoverthelongterm.•Whereitisnecessarytocontinuetousethequickfixwhilealsoworkingonthefundamentalsolution,designthefixinsuchawaythatitbuildstowardthissolutioninsteadofunderminesit.

Onecriticalsuccessfactorinendinghomelessnessisreducingdependenceonthetemporarysheltersystem.InthecourseoftransformingitselffromasheltertoaRealtor,thehistoricallysuccessfulPineStreetInnnowmanagesthirty-six18-unithousesinBostonandneighboringBrooklineandhasmorethanhalfofitsbedsinhomesinsteadofshelters.5.TheapproachisbasedonHousingFirst,abest-practicemodelofpermanentsupportivehousing,designedto“Providehousingfirst,andthencombinethathousingwithsupportivetreatmentservicesinmentalandphysicalhealth,substanceabuse,education,andemployment.”6

WhilesheltersremainanimportantemergencymeasureevenforthePineStreetInn,effortsareunderwaythereandinsuchnationallyrecognizedcommunitiesasColumbus,Ohio,andelsewheretopositionsheltersasconduitstopermanenthousinginsteadofacceptablesubstitutesforit.

Conservativesoftenrightfullypointoutthetendencyforpublic-sectororganizationstobecomesourcesofdependency—akeyindicatorofShiftingtheBurdendynamics.Inthepublichealtharena,severalagencieshavelearnedtorecognizethisdynamicandaltertheirpoliciesasaresult.Forexample,theyincreasefoodsafetybypartneringwithrestaurantownerstocreatefoodworkertrainingsystemsinsteadofdependingontheirtraditionalenforcementrole,and

Page 170: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

theycreatehealthycommunitiesbyworkingwithpoorercommunitiestobuildlocalinfrastructureovertimeinsteadofcominginasshort-termexperts.7

ThekeystoovercomingLimitstoGrowthareto:

•Anticipatepotentiallimitsevenasyoubuildenginesofgrowth.•Investinovercomingtheselimitsbeforetheybecomeaproblem.•Ifnecessary,fundthisinvestmentfromanexistinggrowthengineevenifitmeansgrowingmoreslowly.

Participantsattheretreatonruralhousingdiscoveredthatinvestingininfrastructureforcommunityeconomicdevelopmentneededtoprecedehomebuildingbecausethisinfrastructurewasrequiredtoattractthefundingandexpertiseofprivatedevelopers.Inordertosustaintheeffectivenessofitssuccessfulmosquitocontainmentprogram,apublichealthdepartmentengagedhealthandotherofficialsinneighboringcommunitiestoprovidethepersonnel,equipment,andexpertiseneededtoexpandimplementationbeyondcitylimits.

MeetingthechallengesofSuccesstotheSuccessfulisdifficultbecausethereappeartobefewincentivesforthemoresuccessfultogiveuptheirrelativepower.Someinterventionsthatcanworkareto:

•DevelopanoverarchinggoalthatlinkstheachievementsofAandB.•EnablethemoresuccessfulpartyAtorecognizethenegativeimpactsofinequityonit,includingeconomiccostsandsocialinstability.•SupportpartyBtocultivateneglectedsourcesofpowersuchastight-knitfamilyandsocialtraditions,numbersandhencevotes,andmoralrightness.•Createsystemsthatpromoteequityofopportunityandaccess.•InvestinAandBbasedontheirpotentialforsuccessversuscurrentperformance.

Forexample,acommunitycoalitioninEagleCounty,Colorado,wascommittedtoavisionwhereallchildren,includingthosewhocamefromverywealthyandpoorfamilies,werelovedandsuccessful.Itdiscoveredoverarchingeducationalgoalsbylookingattwogroupsofoutliers:kidswho“haveitall”(inthesenseofcomingfromfamiliesofmonetaryprivilege)butstruggleinschool,andotherkidswhosucceeddespitecomingfromfamilieswithlimitedmonetary

Page 171: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

resources.Coalitionmemberswereaskedtoclarifywhatmakeseverystudentsuccessfulbyconsideringtwoquestions:

•Whatcanbelearnedfrombothoutliergroupsabouttheresourcesrequiredtosucceed?•Whatcanbelearnedfromthesegroupstoincreaseallchildren’sprobabilitiesofsuccess?

Asaresultofansweringthesequestions,thecoalitionaffirmedthatseveralconditionswererequiredforanyandallchildrentosucceed,including:

•Familyandcommunitysupportstructures.•Atleastoneformativerelationshipwithateacher,advocate,ormentorinschool.•Challenge.•Resilienceandself-regulation.•Honoringlearningdifferences.

Inthespiritofcreatingopportunitiesforallchildreninthecounty,thecoalitionnameditsworkInteGreat!Bridgingthelearninggapevolvedintoanintentiontomeetthesesuccessconditionsforeverystudent.

InthecaseofhelpingchildreninConnecticutgetsupportwellbeforetheyenteredschool,therewereseveralargumentsputforthabouttheneedtoinvolvesuccessfulbusinesspeopleinpromotingearly-childhooddevelopmentandeducationbasedontheirinterestsindevelopinganeducatedworkforceandexpandedconsumerbase.However,thelong-termnatureofthesebenefitsmadeitdifficulttoengagethem.Ontheotherhand,participantsdidrecognizetheimportanceofcultivatingneglectedresourcesinpoorcommunities,includingsocialnetworks,theirabilitytoinfluencelocalpolitics,themorallegitimacyofequalopportunity,andthepowerofcommunicatingqualitative—notjustquantitative—descriptionsofwhatworks.

IntheUnitedStates,progressivetaxationofbothincomeandinheritance,aswellasantitrustlaws,areamongtheleversusedhistoricallytoleveltheplayingfieldandcreateequalopportunity.Education,albeitalonger-termsolution,isalsoakeylever,alongwiththeearly-childhooddevelopmentworkenergizedbysuchinitiativesasRightfromtheStart.

Page 172: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Therearethreehigh-leverageinterventionsthattransformAccidentalAdversariesintoproductivepartnerships:

•Clarifyorremindbothgroupshowtheycanbenefitfrompartneringwitheachother.•Pointoutthatthewaysinwhichtheyhaveunderminedeachotherareunintentional;eachgrouphassimplybeentryingtosucceedonitsownwithoutconsideringtheimpactofitssolutionsontheother.•Supportbothgroupstolookforwin–winsolutions:thosethatincreaseeachgroup’ssuccesswhilealsosupporting—oratleastnotundermining—theothergroup’sperformance.

TheeducationorganizationsinIowawereabletocollaboratemoreeffectivelywitheachotherwhentheyappliedthesethreestepstoimproverelationshipsbetweenthestateDepartmentofEducationandtheAreaEducationAgencysystem,individualAEAs,localschooldistrictsandindividualAEAs,andschooldistrictsandthestateDepartmentofEducation.

Table10.1summarizeshowtorewirethecause–effectrelationshipsthatproduceotherarchetypalbehaviors:

Finally,whenusingtheBathtubAnalogy,itisimportanttothinkaboutchangingflowsinordertochangestocksorlevels.Forexample,ifacommunitywantstoreducethelevelofhomelessness,itneedstodecreasetheinflowofpeoplebecominghomelessandincreasetheoutflowofpeoplemovingintoandremaininginpermanenthousing.Alternatively,toincreasethelevelofaffordablehousing,itneedstoincreasetheinflowofnewconstructionandrenovationandtodecreaseoutflowofhousingdeteriorationandultimateneglect.

SHIFTMENTALMODELS

People’smentalmodelsgovernmanyofthecriticalcause–effectrelationshipsthatshapesystemperformance.WhenconsideringanalternativetotheexistingquickfixinFixesThatBackfire,itisimportanttochallengethementalmodelsthatdeterminetheuseofthisfixinthefirstplace.Forexample,membersofthe

Page 173: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

medicalinformaticsunitneededtoquestiontheirbeliefthatthebestwaytobuildsupportfortheirworkwastoraiseexpectationsabouttheexcitingbenefitstheirsoftwarewoulddeliver.

InordertoreducedependenceonthequickfixandbuildsupportforinvestinginthemorefundamentalsolutioninShiftingtheBurden,ithelpstodeterminetheassumptionsthatfavoruseofthequickfixandthosethatdiscourageimplementationofthefundamentalsolution.InCalhounCountythismeantchallengingtheassumptionthatshelterswereanimportantpartofthesolutiontoendinghomelessness,andthatHousingFirstwasnotcost-effective.

PotentialpartnersseekingtoreversetheAccidentalAdversariesdynamicneedtolearnthattheotherparty’sdisruptiveactionsarenotintentional,astheagenciesinIowadiscoveredwhentheymappedoutthestructuretheywerecaughtin.

TABLE10.1.REWIRINGOTHERARCHETYPALDYNAMICS

Page 174: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results
Page 175: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Surfacing,questioning,andtestingpeople’sbeliefsandassumptionsareessentialskillsinrewiringtheserelationships.Becausemanypeopletendtoidentifycloselywithwhattheythink(asDescartesobserved,“IthinkthereforeIam”),helpingthemshifttheirmentalmodelsrequirescarefulplanning.Thefollowingfive-stepprocesscanhelp:

1.Surfaceandrespectcurrentbeliefs.2.Ask,“Dothesementalmodelshelpusachievewhatwewantnow?”3.Stimulatealternativeviews.4.Developavisionofwhatwewantnowandthementalmodelsthatwouldsupportit.

5.Conductandlearnfromexperiments.

Chapter8describedahighlyeffectivewaytosurfacementalmodelsandsimultaneouslybringsystemsmapstolifebyaddingthoughtbubblestokeycause–effectlinks.Communicatingrespectforpeople’sbeliefsisimportantbecausebeliefsarebasedontheirpastexperiences—howeverincompleteorpotentiallyoutdatedtheyarenow.AsRobertFritzobserved,askingpeopleiftheirbeliefsaretrueornotisaweakquestionbecausetheanswerisalwaysyes.Themedicalinformaticsunithadreceivedasubstantialbudgettodevelopnewproductsbasedonthebenefitstheypromised,andformanyyearssheltershadprovidedthemosthumaneplaceswherehomelesspeoplecouldsleep.

Fritzrecommendssubstitutingutilityforvalidityasthebasisforassessingexistingmentalmodels.Inotherwords,itismoreproductivetoaskpeopleiftheircurrentbeliefsareusefulornot.Dotheirbeliefsenablethemtoachievemoreofwhattheywantnow?Forexample,membersofthemedicalinformaticsunitrealizedthat,whilemakinggrandcommitmentstothesystem’shospitalshadraisedenthusiasticsupportforitswork,overcommittinghadalsoledtohighstress,lowerquality,andreducedcredibilityovertime.Continuingtobaseagreementsonpotentialbenefitswasnolongerusefulandinfacthadbecomecounterproductive.

Youcanalsohelppeoplereducetheirattachmenttocurrentbeliefsbyintroducingalternativeviews.Gettingthewholesystemintheroomandcreating

Page 176: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

catalyticconversationsacrossdiversestakeholdersinevitablysurfacesandpromptsdifferentwaysofthinkingabouttheissueandtheopportunities.ThepioneeringthinkeronorganizationallearningChrisArgyrisrecommendedthatpeopleseekdisconfirmingviews—activelyrecruitingevidencethatdemonstrateshowtheirmentalmodelsareincompleteornolongeraccurate.Forexample,thefieldsofappreciativeinquiryandpositivedeviancechallengeassumptionsthatobstaclescannotbeovercomebyredirectingattentiontohowpeoplehavealreadysucceededinthefaceofsimilarchallenges.8

Youcanalsoreduceattachmentbyproposingalternativeinterpretationsofknownfacts—forexample,byquestioningifademonstratedshort-termimprovementissustainableorashortfallisattributabletoalackofpatienceratherthanafailuretodemonstratemeasurableprogress.Systemsmapsstimulatenewthinkingbysurfacingunintendedconsequencesofpeople’sactions,differentiatingtheshort-andlong-termoutcomesoftheirsolutions,anduncoveringoftennon-obviousinterdependenciesamongdifferentpartsofthesystem.

Ifcurrentbeliefsdonotsupportdesiredresults,thenthenextstepistodevelopavisionofwhatpeoplewantnowandasetofbeliefsthatsupportmovementinthisdirection.Newsupportivebeliefsarenotnecessarilytheoppositeofexistingones.Infact,theyareoftenmorenuanced.Forexample,mostmembersofthemedicalinformaticsunitrealizedthattheywantedcredibility—notjustenthusiasticinterest—fortheirwork.Theyagreedtotestanewassumptionthatsuccessdependedonmakingrealisticagreementswithpotentialbeneficiariesinsteadofsimplyraisingexpectations.InorderforleadersinendinghomelessnesssuchasLyndiaDownietobesuccessful,theyhavetobelievethatmost(notnecessarilyall)homelesspeoplewanttoliveinapermanenthome.TheagenciesthatwereCollaboratingforIowa’sKidsneededtobelievethatpartneringwitheachothertoimproveeducationalperformancewouldproducebetterresultsthanactingindependently.

Newbeliefswillonlybesustainedtotheextentthatpeoplecanvalidatethembasedonnewactions.Thisiswhyexperimentsandprototypesaresoimportant.Theycannotonlyreinforceanewideabyshowingitworksinpractice,butalsomodifyandimproveupontheideabylearningwhatdoesnotwork.Membersof

Page 177: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

themedicalinformaticsunitexperimentedwithnewwaysofnegotiatingrealisticagreementswithhospitalstaff,andmanyweresurprisedtodiscoverthat,bychallengingunrealisticexpectationsanddevelopingalternativeproposals,theywerereceivedasmoreprofessionalratherthanless.9DownieandthestaffofthePineStreetInnprovedthatmosthomelesspeoplewantamoresecurehomebyprovidingpermanent,supportivehousingandthendeterminingthat96percentofchronicallyhomelessstayedintheirnewhomeafteroneyearandreportedthat“thecamaraderieisterrific.”10TheIowaDepartmentofEducationandAreaEducationAgenciesworkedtogetheronimprovingearlyliteracy—ahigh-leverageinitiativeinK–12education—todemonstratethebenefitsofpartnering.

REINFORCETHEPURPOSE

Oncepeoplemakeaconsciouscommitmenttotheirespousedpurposeandidentifyleveragepoints,theyoftenneedtoreassesstheextenttowhichcurrentgoals,metrics,incentives,authoritystructures,andfundingstreamssupportorunderminetheachievementofthispurpose.Forexample,thesteeringcommitteeinCalhounCountybasedthegoalsinitsstrategicplantoendhomelessnessontheleveragepointsidentifiedinthesystemsmappingprocess.Threeofthesegoalsfocusedonthedevelopmentalprocessesofengagingthecommunity,creatingcollaborationamongprovidersandstakeholders,andestablishinginformedandalignedfundingapproaches.Theotherthreeaddressedthefundamentalsolutionsofprovidingaccesstoquality,safe,permanentaffordablehousing;servicestoensurestablehousing;andpermanentemploymentandeducationopportunities.Leadingfundersaroundthecountryhaveshiftedtheconventionalmetricforsheltersof“increasingbedutilization”to“reducinglengthofshelterstaypriortoamovetopermanenthousing.”

ThenationallyrecognizedCommunityShelterBoard(CSB)ofColumbus,Ohio,andsurroundingFranklinCountyalsodemonstrateshowtheseprinciplesareapplied.11CSBisacollectiveimpactorganizationwithtwentypartneragenciesfoundedbyapowerfulbusinesscommunitytoendhomelessness.Oneofitskeyearlydistinctionsandleverswasthatitpositioneditselftocoordinate

Page 178: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

anddirectlyoverseemostofthecommunity-widefundingdedicatedtothisoutcome.CSBhasuseditsfinancialclouttodefinemetricsandincentivesthataredesignedtooptimizethewholesysteminsteadofitsconstituentparts.Forexample:

•Shelterprovidersaremeasuredbythenumberofpeoplehousedandhowquickly—notbybedutilization.

•Shelteranddirecthousingprovidersforfamiliesmustworkcloselytogethertoearntheirmoneybecausesheltersareincentivizedtokeepthenumberofdaysthatfamiliesspendinshelterslow,anddirecthousingprovidersmustgetreferralsfromfamilyshelterstomeettheirgoalsofhousing70percentoffamilies.

•CSBrunsaunifiedsystemforleasingupitspermanentsupportivehousingunitsthatassuresthatpriorityisgiventothosepeoplewithhighvulnerabilityandwhoarealsohighutilizersofthementalhealthsystem.Insteadofhavingwaitinglistsforhousing,ithasanintegratedsystemwiththementalhealthboard,thehousingauthority,andCSBtoassurethattheneediestpeoplearehoused.

CSBisalsoanexampleofabackboneorganization,whichJohnKaniaandMarkKrameridentifyasoneofthecriticalsuccessfactorsforcommunitiestoachievecollectiveimpact.12Oneofthebenefitsofbackboneorganizationsisthattheyprovidetheauthoritystructuresnecessarytofocustheworkofongoingdecisionmakingandimplementation.Theparticipatoryprocessesdescribedinthisbooksofarencouragesharedresponsibilityandconsensualdecisionmaking.Groundingthepurposeinactionabletasksthenrequiresthatpeopleauthorizespecificorganizationsorgroupstodecideandactonbehalfofthewhole.

Decisionandaccountabilitychartingaretoolsthatcanbeusedtofocusdecisionmakingandprojectimplementation,respectively.13Bothfunctionunderthepremisethatpeoplearemorelikelytosupportprocessesthatlimittheirongoinginvolvementiftheyhavebeeninvolvedconsensuallyinthepreviousworkandarenowaskedtoagreeonhowtosetthelimitsgoingforward.

Page 179: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Decisionchartingassignsafewpeopletomakespecifictypesofdecisionsonbehalfofthecollective.Theexactnumberofdecisionmakersisassmallaspossibletomakedecisionsefficientlyandasmanyasnecessarytoensurequalityandsupportforimplementation.Rolesinadditiontothedecisionmakersincludethosewithapprovalorvetopower(identifiedonlyifrequiredtomeetlegal,political,orfiscalobligations),thoseneededtosupportimplementationofthedecision,consultantstothedecision,thosewhohavetobeinformedofthedecision,andamanagerwhoensuresthatthedecisionismadeinatimelyway.

Accountabilitychartingusessimilarroledefinitionswithoneexception.Insteadofdecisionmakersandamanager,thereisonegrouporindividualvestedbythecollectivetodriveimplementationofaspecificgoalorprojectontheirbehalf.Allotherrolesarethesameasthoseusedfordecisioncharting.

EstablishaProcessforContinuousLearningandOutreachInordertobeeffectiveinthelongterm,organizationsneedtofollowthroughontheirimplementationeffortswithaprocessofcontinuouslearningandoutreach.Whileidentifyingleveragepointsoftenentailsaninitialreallocationofexistingresources(suchaswherepeopleplacetheirintention,focus,andtime),thisongoingjourneyinvolveslearningfromexperience,expandingtheresourcepool,andscalingupwhatworks.Let’sexploreeachofthese.

Evenbeyondchangingparadigmsorshiftingmentalmodels,theultimateleveragepointidentifiedbysystemsthinkerDonellaMeadowsistranscendingparadigms,whichshedefinesastheability“tokeeponeselfunattachedinthearenaofparadigms,tostayflexible,torealizethatnoparadigmis‘true,’thateveryone,includingtheonethatsweetlyshapesyourownworldview,isatremendouslylimitedunderstandingofanimmenseandamazinguniversethatisfarbeyondhumancomprehension.”14Ithinkofthisastheimportanceofestablishingaprocessofcontinuouslearning.Ourvisionsevolve,currentrealitychanges(hopefullyinthedirectionwewant),andnewinformationandconditionsemerge.Thebestwecandoistoclarifywhatwewant,planhowtoproceed,takeaction,andlearnfromwhathappens.

Continuouslearningatthelocallevelinvolves:

Page 180: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Extensiveandongoinginclusionofstakeholders.•Aclearstrategicplanwithspecificprojectsinsupportoftheplan.•Astrongfocusondatatosupportevaluationagainstthegoalsandmetrics.•Quarterlyandannualevaluationsthatinformupdatestotheplan.

ThesearethefourstrategiesusedbyCSB,whichconsidersitscommitmenttocontinuouslearningtobethefoundationofitsongoingsuccess.

Asforexpandingtheresourcepool,CSBtapsadditionalresourcesthroughitsextensivepartnershipsandfund-raisingability.Inadditiontobeingconstitutedasapartnershipoftwentydifferentlocalagencies,CSBisactivelyinvolvedinnationaleffortstoendhomelessness.ItisamemberoftheLeadershipCouncilandparticipatesinmanynationalconferencesandwebinars.Italsoseeksoutothercommunitiesfortechnicalassistance,suchasbylearningshelterdiversionstrategiesfromNewYorkCity.CSB’srootsinthebusinesscommunitymotivateittokeeplearningfromtheprivatesectoraboutsuchareasashowtoengagegovernment,developbusinessstrategy,andimprovetheefficiencyofitsnewsingleadultsystem(byincorporatingsupplychaintechniquesusingabusiness’sSixSigmaBlackBelts).Theorganizationalsoremainscloselyconnectedtothepublicsector.

CSB’sstrongfund-raisingabilityisbasedonitscontinualemphasisoninclusion,harddata,andmeasurableperformanceimprovement.Inaddition,HUDhasrecentlygrantedtheorganizationunifiedagencystatus,whichenablesittobringmoreprogramsundertheCSBumbrellaandhelpthoseprogramsfocusonresultsandoutcomesinordertocontinuefunding.

Scalingupwhatworkscanbethoughtofasstrategiestoengagemanypeopleandinstitutionsbeyondtherelativelyfewkeypeopleyoumighthaveinvolvedsofar.15Forexample,inherSouloftheNextEconomyInitiative,socialarchitectPamelaWilhelmsemphasizestheimportanceoftargetingthreedifferentgroups:consumers,voters,andinvestors.16Initscollaborativeresearchwithseveralnonprofitsdedicatedtoexpandingtheimpactofthesocialsector,thenationalassociationoffundersGrantmakersforEffectiveOrganizations(GEO)citesfourbroadstrategiesnonprofitscanadopttoscaleuptheirwork:

Page 181: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Expandingthereachofasuccessfulprograminthesameordifferentlocations.•Spreadinganideawithinacertainareaorsystem—geographic,organizational,orprofessional.•Increasingthenumberofpeopleorplacesthatuseorapplyanewtechnology,practice,orapproach.•Ensuringthatideasbecomeembeddedinpoliciesandhencenewbehaviorspursuedbyagovernmentbody,corporation,orotherinstitution.17

GEOthentranslatestheseintofourpracticesthatgrantmakerscanfollowtosupportalloftheseapproaches:

•Provideflexiblefundingoverthelongterm.•Funddataandperformancemanagementcapabilities.•Supportcapacitybuildingandleadershipdevelopment.•Supportmovements.

GEOemphasizestheimportanceofscalingupwithflexibility,ensuringthatthereisroomtoadaptwhathasbeenlearnedinoneplacetonewcontexts.Ithinkofthisasexpandingtheprocessoflearningwhatworksinsteadofseekingtoimposespecificsolutions.Moreover,asinthefour-stageprocessofappliedsystemsthinking,aneffectivelearningandoutreachprocessneedstoaddressbothinternalchanges—thosethatshapepeople’spersonalintentions,thinking,andactions—aswellasexternalchangesinthebeliefs,policies,andregulationsthatgoverntheircollectivebehavior.18

Intheirresearchonreframingtheartofhelping,PulitzerPrize–winningauthorsNicholasKristofandSherylWuDunnseeextensiveopportunitiesforscale-upinadaptingbusinesscompetenciestowhatistraditionallydefinedassocialorpublic-sectorwork.19Integratingthestrengthsofbusinesstoincreasesociety’sabilitiestohelpitsvulnerablepopulationscancomeinmultipleforms,suchas:

•Fundingthedevelopmentinnonprofitsofsuchbusinessinfrastructureandskillsasimprovedmarketing,informationsystems,andpersonnelmanagement(asalsosuggestedbyGEO).

Page 182: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Socialimpactbondsthataccrueprivate-sectorinvestmentstofundpublic-sectorinnovations.•Socialenterprisesthatuseaprofit-makingmodeltoachieveasocialaswellaseconomicbottomline.•Impactinvestingthatfundsnewsocialenterprisesfromcharitabledonations.•Largecompanyinvestmentsindevelopingandunderdevelopednationsthatbuildnewmarketstomeettheneedsofthepooraswellasemployeemorale.

KristofandWuDunnalsopointoutthepowerofengagingfaith-basedorganizationsandcreatingsocialclubswhosepurposeistoserveothersinneed.Theyencouragesecularandreligiousforcestocollaboratemore,especiallyintheareaofadvocacy,toaccomplishfarmorethaneachcanseparatelytofightagainstthecommonenemiesofhumanity.Theyalsocitethepowerofseculargivingcommunitiesorcirclesthatcultivatethedesireofpeopleingroupstomakeameaningfuldifference.

HowtoIntegrateMultipleInterventionsWithmanyinterventionstochoosefrom,thequestionremains:“Wheredowestart?”Theleveragepointsproposedinthischapterarepresentedinalogicalorder,whereby:

1.Awarenessuncoversinterdependenciestoberewired.2.Rewiringissupportedbyunderstandingandthenshiftingthementalmodelsthatinfluencekeycause–effectrelationships.

3.Reinforcingthepurposefacilitatesimplementationofchangesinconnectionsandassumptions.

4.Continuouslearningandoutreachenablepeopletomakenecessarycoursecorrectionsinsystemsthatareultimatelytoocomplexanddynamictocontrol.

Itcanalsobehelpfultocreatesmall,moreimplementablechangesearlyonaslongastheyarepositionedwithinalong-termstrategy(amethodusedbyHoudiniindesigningescapesfromhisseeminglyinescapabletraps!).Finally,

Page 183: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

onewaytointegratemultipleinterventionsintoadynamicstrategyistoorganizethemintocausalloopsthatfeedforwardinsteadofbackward.Designingsuchsystemictheoriesofchangeisthefocusofthenextchapter.

ClosingtheLoop•Systemspivotaroundleveragepoints,arelativelyfewkeycoordinatedstrategiessustainedovertimethatproducesignificantlong-termimprovement.•Effectiveinterventionsshiftthepatternofbehaviorproducedbythesystem’sdynamicsinasustainableway.•Fourhigh-leverageinterventionsareto:

•Increaseawarenessofhowthesystemcurrentlyfunctions.•Rewirecriticalcause–effectrelationships.•Shiftmentalmodels.•Reinforcethechosenpurposebyaligninggoals,metrics,incentives,authoritystructures,andfundingtosupportit.

•Organizationsneedtoreinforcetheimplementationofhigh-leverageinterventionswithaprocessofcontinuouslearningandoutreach.•Thisongoingjourneyinvolveslearningfromexperience,expandingtheresourcepool,andscalingupwhatworks.•Youcanintegratemultipleinterventionsintoaclearstrategybyfollowingthenaturalprogressionintroducedinthischapterandthendesigningamorespecificsystemictheoryofchange.

Page 184: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

PARTTHREE

SHAPINGTHEFUTURE

Page 185: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—CHAPTER11—

Page 186: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

SystemsThinkingforStrategicPlanning

Theemphasisinthisbooksofarhasbeenonapplyingsystemsthinkingretrospectively—todeterminewhypeoplehavenotbeenabletoachievetheresultstheywantdespitetheirbestefforts.Insightsintodeeplyembeddeddynamicsandleveragepointsreducethelikelihoodthattheywillrepeatpastmistakesor“reinventabrokenwheel.”Itisalsoeasiertotestthevalidityofasystemsmapbasedonknownhistorybecausetheanalysisshouldbeabletopredictwhathashappeneduntilnow.

However,beingabletoidentifyleveragepointsdoesnotnecessarilyhelppeopleorganizetheirthinkingabouthowtomoveforward.Forexample,oncetheagenciescommittedtoCollaboratingforIowa’sKidsunderstoodwhypartneringwitheachotherhadbeendifficult,theystillneededtoclarifyawayforwardthatwouldenablethemtotakeadvantageoftheirinsights.Itisimportanttoconnectleveragepointsintoacoherentpathforward—onethatlinksandsequencesinterventionsovertime,accountsfortimedelayandlong-termaswellasshort-termconsequencesofpossibleactions,andshapesintentionalreinforcingandbalancingfeed-forwardrelationshipsintothefuture.

Moreover,therearetimeswhenpeoplewanttocreatesomethingnewanddonotnecessarilyhavethebenefitofhindsight.Whileitmightbeeasytoconceiveofwhatneedstobedonegoingforward,itisnotsoeasytointegratethesecriticalsuccessfactorsintoacoherentstrategy.Forexample,whenanoversightgroupcommittedtoincreasingthehealthofitsruralcountydevelopeditsfirststrategyroadmap,itrealizedthatthemanystrategies,tactics,interimoutcomes,

Page 187: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

andendresultsthatpeopleidentifieddidnotformaclearpathofaction.Questionsofscope,priority,timing,timedelay,unintendedconsequences,andsustainabilityofproposedimprovementsstillremained.

Sometimesorganizationsaresimplyoverwhelmedbytoomanychoicesandtoofewresources.Theproblemiscompoundedbythehighexpectationspeopleplaceonthemselvesandatendencytoassumethatdoingmoreautomaticallyleadstoaccomplishingmore.Organizationsmayhavemoreprogramsthantheycansupportandnoclearwayofrationalizingamongthem.Theymayhavewhatfeelslikealaundrylistofprioritiesandnowayofdecidingamongthemwithoutgettingcaughtindysfunctionalconflictsaboutorganizationalturfandwhogetswhatpieceofthepie.Bycontrast,whenthemanagementteamofamajorchildwelfareagencysoughttomakesenseoftheorganization’smultipleprogramsandsupportfunctions,itrecognizedtheneedforacoherentstrategythatwouldjustify—andifnecessaryprune—itsmanycommitments.

Inallofthesecases,itcanbehelpfultoapplysystemsthinkingprospectively—tocreatearoadmapgoingforwardthataccountsforthecomplexityofhavingtonavigatesomanyinterdependentfactorsovertime.Thecircularroadmapsproducedbyplanningsystemicallyhaveseveralbenefitsovermorecommonlinearinput–outputmodels.They:

•Incorporatethedynamicsofreinforcingandbalancingloopsintocause–effectrelationshipsthatfeedforward—therebyrepresentinghowsocialsystemsactuallybehaveandunfold.•Clarifyapathforoptimizingtherelationshipsamongthepartsofthesysteminsteadofthepartsthemselves.•Integratemultiplesuccessfactorsintoalogicalandsequencedsetofactionsovertime.•Taketimedelayintoaccount.•Includeplanstomakebothshort-termandlonger-termsustainableimprovements.

Byincorporatingthesefeatures,circulartheoriesofchangecreatepicturesthatquicklycommunicatealotofreadilyunderstandableinformation.Themapshavebeenveryeffectiveinfund-raising,orientingandengagingother

Page 188: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

stakeholdersquickly,andprovidingclearnavigationformanypeopleoverlongperiodsoftime.Forexample,theofficersofthenewFood&FitnessprogramattheW.K.KelloggFoundationcreatedsuchamaptoselltheirinitialnationwideproposaltotheboard.Themapsummarizedtheprogram’sintentionsandstrategicplansoclearlyandsuccinctlythattheboardtooktheunprecedentedactionofapprovingtheirproposalatitsveryfirstreviewmeeting.AgroupfromnortheastIowathatsubsequentlydevelopedacomparablemapfortheirregionalFood&Fitnessproject(seefigure11.9,laterinthischapter)stillusesthemaptoorienttheirworkmorethanfiveyearsaftercreatingit.

Soinmovingtoprospectivesystemsthinking,itistimetointroducetwocoretheoriesofsystemicchangeanddescribehowpeopleusedthemtodevelopstrategicplansthatmeetthesethreechallenges:

•Organizingtheleveragepointsdeterminedbyarootcauseanalysisofchronic,complexproblems.•Integratingthenumerouscriticalsuccessfactorsrequiredtocreatesomethingnew.•Streamliningchoicesamongtoomanyprogramsorpriorities.

We’llalsolookatsomeguidelinesforrefiningyourtheoryovertimetoaccommodatenewinformationandchangingconditions.

TwoSystemicTheoriesofChangeMycolleagueMichaelGoodman,aco-developerofthesystemarchetypes,notedthattherearetwodistinctbranchesofarchetypes—thosebasedonreinforcingfeedbackandthosebasedonbalancingfeedback.1Theformerdescribestoriesofsuccesscompromisedbylimits,andthelattertellstoriesofimprovementdisabledbynegativeconsequences.Therearetwocorrespondingcoretheoriesofchangeusingthesystemsthinkingtoolsinthisbook.2Thefirstseekstoamplifysuccess,whilethesecondseekstocorrectashortcomingandachieveagoal.

TheSuccessAmplificationstorybeginswithoneormorereinforcingloops—thefactorsofsuccessthatbuildononeanotherovertimetocreatemoresuccess(R1infigure11.1).Youcanlearnwhatisalreadyworkinginthesystemthroughinformalanecdotesorbyusingmoreformalapproachessuchasappreciative

Page 189: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

inquiryorpositivedeviance.3Alternatively,peoplemayfirstlistwhattheyperceivetobecriticalsuccessfactorsor,asinthecaseofarticulatingtheprospectsforpartnershipbetweentheIowaDepartmentofEducationandthestate’sAreaEducationAgencies,describehowacoresuccessloopshouldwork(foranexample,referbacktofigure7.10).Inordertoensuresustainablegrowth,itisalsoimportanttoplanbeyondtheinitialengineofsuccess.Thesuccesstheoryneedstoalsoconsiderpossiblelimitstoinitialimprovements(B2infigure11.1)andanticipatehowtheselimitsmightbeovercomebygeneratingnewenginesofsuccessovertime(R3).Finally,itisvitaltoidentifykeytimedelaysincultivatingandsustainingsuccess.

Ifpeoplecannoteasilyidentifysuccessestobuildon,oriftheprospectsforcreatingapositivelyreinforcingdynamicaretenuous,itmakesmoresensetodevelopasystemictheoryofchangethatbridgesthegapbetweenrealityandadesiredgoalorvision.TheGoalAchievementtheory,mappedoutinfigure11.2,beginswithoneormorebalancingloopsthatidentifythecorrection(s)requiredtoclosethisdiscrepancy.4Inordertodeterminewhatcorrectionsarelikelytobeeffective,ithelpstofirstclarifytheunderlyingstructurethatcausesthegap(B1infigure11.2).KathleenZurcherpointsoutthatsuchanexerciseisasset-basedinsteadofdeficit-basedaslongasthediscrepancyisdrivenbyastrongvision.Inaddition,becauseofthetimedelaysusuallyrequiredtoclosethegap,itisimportanttoexercisepersistenceandstaythecourseinmakingthecorrections(B2).Atthesametime,ifprogressisnotoccurringevenaftertakingtimedelaysintoaccount,ithelpstogainperspectiveonthereasonsfortheshortfallandrethinkthenatureofthechallenge(B3).

Page 190: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE11.1THESUCCESSAMPLIFICATIONTHEORY.Thistheoryclarifieshowtobuildonexistingsuccesses,anticipatelimitstoevengreatersuccess,andcreatenewenginesofgrowthovertime.

Page 191: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE11.2GOALACHIEVEMENTTHEORY:MAKINGINITIALIMPROVEMENTS.Thistheoryidentifiesinitialimprovementstoaccomplishadesiredgoalandrecognizestheimportanceofbothstayingoncourseandrethinkingthechallengetobeeffective.

Becausepeoplehaveatendencytotakethepressureoffastheymakeprogresstowardachievingagoal,itisequallyimportantindevelopingasystemictheoryofGoalAchievementtodefinehowpeoplewillsustainandreinforceimprovementsovertime.Sustainabilityisamajorsourceofconcernforfunderswhowanttoensurethatbeneficiariesareabletocontinueifnotexpandtheirworkwithoutongoingfinancialaid.Theneedforreinforcementisfurtherevidencedbytheemphasisinthequalitymovementoncontinuousimprovementandobservationsbyhighperformersthatcontinuingtoworkhardisessentialtosustainedsuccess.

Figure11.3providesatemplateforthreeenginesofreinforcement.R4encouragespeopletoexpandtheiraspirationsastheiractualperformanceincreases.Byexperiencingtheirinitialdreamscometrueandaffirmingnew

Page 192: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

possibilities,theycanraisetheirgoals.Byraisingtheirgoals,theycanbecomecleareraboutnewgrowthopportunitiesandtakeactionstorealizethem(R5).Forexample,growingactionsavailabletothesocialsectorincludefund-raisingbasedondemonstratedsuccesses,investmentsinorganizationalcapacity,partnershipsthatenableeachorganizationtodowhatitdoesbestwhilecontributingtoalargerresult,creativewaystoscaleupsuccesses,andadvocacyforpolicychange.5Finally,improvementsinactualperformancecanredirectmoneypreviouslyrequiredtotreatproblemsymptomstowardnewinvestmentsinthegrowingactionsabove(R6).Forexample,theannualsavingsofninety-fivehundreddollarsperpersonachievedbykeepingpeopleinlong-termhousinginMassachusetts(therebyreducingtheuseofemergencyroomsandtemporaryshelters)canbereinvestedinprogramsthatpreventorendhomelessness.6

Page 193: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE11.3GOALACHIEVEMENTTHEORY:REINFORCINGIMPROVEMENTS.ThesecondpartoftheGoalAchievementtheoryemphasizestheneedforcontinuousimprovementthroughsharpeningthevision,cultivatingadditionalgrowingactions,andreinvestingsuccessdividends.

ThenextthreesectionsgiveexamplesofhowthesecoresystemictheoriesofchangeprovidedroadmapsfororganizationsandcommunitiescommittedtoimprovingK–12education,publichealth,andchildwelfare.

OrganizingLeveragePointsThefollowingtwocasesdemonstratehowplanninggroupsdevelopedstrategicroadmapsbasedonsystemsanalysesoftheircoreproblems.ThefirstrevisitstheagenciesworkingtoincreaseCollaborationforIowa’sKidsandusesaSuccessAmplificationapproach.Thesecondintroducesacoalitioninaruralcountycommittedtoincreasingpublichealth,especiallyforitsmostvulnerablepopulations,anddescribesaGoalAchievementstrategy.

AMPLIFYINGSTRENGTHSINTHECOLLABORATIONFORIOWA’SKIDS

DevelopersoftheCollaborationforIowa’sKidsbasedtheirtheoryofsuccessonthecorereinforcingloopthatdescribedhowtheIowaDepartmentofEducationandAreaEducationAgencieswouldcapitalizeontheirprospectsforpartnership.Thetheorytheydevelopedandusedastheirroadmapisreproducedinfigure11.4.Thecentralloopwasthecoretheoryunderlyingtheirpartnership(aspreviouslyshowninfigure7.10).TherightreinforcingloopprovidedaframeworkforAEAsacrossthestatetoincreasecoherenceandequitywithintheirownsystem,andtheleftreinforcingloopdetailedhowtoincreaseeffectivecollaborationbetweentheIDEandAEAsystem.Althoughthetheorydoesnotexplicitlymappotentiallimitstosuccessandwaystoovercomethem,developersdidaddressthesefactorsintheirjointplanning.TheyidentifiedmajorimplementationchallengestoredesigningtheAEAsystemandfivestrategiesforovercomingtheseobstacles.

Page 194: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE11.4AMPLIFYINGSUCCESSINCOLLABORATINGFORIOWA’SKIDS.ThismapwasusedbytheIowaDepartmentofEducationandthestate’sAreaEducationAgenciestoexplicatetheirtheoryforbuildingandsustaininganeffectivepartnership.ThecentralloopdescribesbroadlyhowcollaboratingbenefitsIDEandtheAEAs,therightloopfocusesonincreasingcoherencewithintheAEAsystem,andtheleftloopemphasizesimprovedimplementationbybothparties.CollaboratingforIowa’sKids:APartnershipBetweentheIowaDepartmentofEducationandtheIowaAreaEducationAgencies

ACHIEVINGTHEGOALOFAHEALTHYCOMMUNITY

TheEagleCountyPublicHealthandEnvironmentDepartment(ECPHE)sharedarelatedcommitmenttotheInteGreat!coalitionintroducedinchapter10.It

Page 195: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

wantedtoincreasehealthequityinthecountybyfocusingonthehealthofthecounty’smostvulnerablepopulations,includingchildrenlivinginpoverty,andincorporatingthesocialdeterminantsofhealthintoallcommunitydecisionmaking.ECPHEalsoengagedagroupofdiversestakeholders,includingsomeofthoseparticipatinginInteGreat!,anddevelopedaGoalAchievementtheoryofchange.Theirtheorycameoutofadesiretodiscerntherootcausesofpoorhealthinthecountyusingasystemsanalysisandthendesignastrategythatwouldeffectivelyintegratetheidentifiedleveragepoints.

ThegroupdescribedacommondynamicthatIwouldcallTreadingWater,wherestrongforcesdraggingpeopledownarebarelycompensatedforbyequallystrenuouseffortstohelpthemstayafloat.Itidentifiedfiveviciouscyclesthatledtothedeteriorationofthefinancialstabilityandhealthofvulnerablepopulationsovertime.Thegroupalsolistedmorethantwiceasmanyinitiatives(intheformofbalancingloops)thatthecommunitywastakingtohelpbreakthesecycles.Themostpowerfulinsightwasthat,despitethefactthatthereweremanyorganizationsprovidingservicestoimprovethehealthofvulnerablepopulations(directlyandindirectly),theireffortsweresignificantlyhamperedbyafailuretoworktogether.Likeoarsinacrewshellthatdonotdipinthewatersimultaneously,thislackofcoordinationwastedresourcesandmadeitevenmoredifficultforbothprovidersandtheirintendedbeneficiariestomoveforwardandbreaktheviciouscyclesofpovertyandsicknessinthecommunity.

Thisinsightsurfacedtheneedforseveralhigh-leverageinterventions:

•Developingamapofcurrentcommunityhealthassetstobothcommunicatetheavailabilityoftheseassetstovulnerablepopulationsandidentifyopportunitygapstobebridged.•Increasingcollaborationamongserviceproviders.•Engagingvulnerablepopulationsasequalsanddevelopinganeffectivesupportsystemforthecommunity’sundocumentedimmigrants,whomakeupasignificantportionofthepeopleatriskofgettingsick.•Moreeffectivelyengagingthepeoplewhoinfluencetheseindividuals—includingtheirfamilies,employers,educators,churches,andpoliticalleaders.

Page 196: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Betterplanningforthebuiltenvironment,suchasqualityaffordablehousingandaccessiblerecreationalopportunities.

Theadvisorygroupalsoaffirmedtheneedtocontinuetoworktowardlonger-termpovertyreductionstrategiessuchasincreasingthenumberoflivingwagejobsandtheavailabilityofaffordableandeffectivehealthinsurance.Finally,theyrecognizedtheimportanceofshiftingmentalmodelsinthecommunitythatreinforcedthestatusquo.Theseincluded:

•Classism,racism—“Theyarethekindofpeoplewho...aren’tmotivatedtotakecareofthemselves,learn,etcetera.”•“Wecan’tchangebecauseoflimitedresources.”•“Onesizefitsall.”•“Thesystemistoobigtochange.”•“Healthcarecan’tbefixed.”

Thegroupfirstintegratedtheleveragepointsintoseveralcorebalancingloops.Theseareshowninfigures11.5to11.7.B1infigure11.5emphasizesthecriticalrolethatcommunityhealthassetmappinghasinimprovingaccesstolow-costhealthopportunities,whichinturnincreasestheeffectiveengagementandeducationofvulnerablepopulations,therebyincreasingtheleveloftheirhealthyactivitiesandoverallhealthasaresult.

Page 197: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE11.5COREIMPROVEMENTTOINCREASEHEALTHOFVULNERABLEPOPULATIONS.Thecoretheoryofimprovingcommunityhealthfocusesondevelopingamapofthecommunity’shealthassetsasawayofengagingandeducatingthepopulation,especiallythosemostatrisk,aboutthemanyexistingresourcestheycanusetoimprovetheirhealth.

Page 198: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE11.6INCREASINGCOLLABORATIONAMONGPROVIDERS.Thegrouprecognizedthepivotalimpactofincreasingcollaborationamongserviceproviderstobothincreaseaccesstolow-costhealthopportunitiesanddevelopasupportsystemforthecounty’sundocumentedpopulation.

Infigure11.6,B2,B3,andB4showhowcommunityassetmappingcontributestoincreasingcollaborationamongserviceprovidersandenablesthemtodevelopasupportsystemforthecounty’sundocumentedpopulation.

Page 199: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE11.7ADDITIONALSTRATEGIESTOINCREASEHEALTHOFVULNERABLEPOPULATIONS.Severaladditionalstrategieswereidentifiedtobuildonthecoreonesofassetmappingandserviceprovidercollaboration:increasingcommunityengagement,bridgingopportunitygapssurfacedbythecommunityhealthassetmap,andtakinghealthissuesintoaccountinplanningforthebuiltenvironment.

Page 200: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE11.8REINFORCINGPROGRESSTOWARDAHEALTHYCOMMUNITY.Thegroupidentifiedfourwaystoreinforcetheinitialimprovementsincommunityhealthovertime:developingevengreaterclarityaboutthecommunity’shealthassetsbyengagingvulnerablepopulations,illuminatingandbridgingopportunitygapsthroughtheeducationalprocess,takingadvantageofnewopportunitiestofosterhealthyactivities,andusingimprovedhealthindicatorstoattractadditionalfunding.

Page 201: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Theadvisorygroupalsoidentifiedseveraladditionalstrategiesasshowninfigure11.7.B5focusesontheimportanceofcommunityengagement.B6capturesthevalueofassetmappingtoidentifyingandbridgingopportunitygaps.B7affirmstheimportanceofplanningforthebuiltenvironment.Factorsintheupperleftcornerofthediagramthatimpactthetargetpopulation’sfinancialconstraintsarealsoshown.Finally,initslineatthebottomofthediagram,thegroupacknowledgedtheimportanceofshiftingmentalmodelsthroughoutthechangeprocess.

Thegroupthenidentifiedfourwaystoreinforcetheimprovementsdescribedabove,asshowninfigure11.8.R8notesthevalueofengagingvulnerablepopulationstodevelopfurtherclarityaboutthecommunity’shealthassets.R9showstheimportanceofdesigninganeducationprocessthatsupportspeople,ideallyinsmallgroups,toidentifyadditionalopportunitiestoimprovetheirhealth.R10emphasizesthatpeoplewhoidentifynewopportunitiesaremorelikelytotakeownershipforimplementingtheirownself-careinitiatives.R11explainsthepowerofusingdemonstrablesuccessesinimprovedhealthtogenerateadditionalfunding.

Thetwocasesabovedescribehowpeoplehavedevelopedsystemicroadmapsforchangebasedonrootcauseanalyses.Thenextsectionprovidesexamplesofdevelopingtheseroadmapsbasedonassumptionsaboutcriticalsuccessfactorswithoutsuchanalyses.

IntegratingSuccessFactorsThefirstcaseinthissectionusesaSuccessAmplificationstrategytobuildonstrongexistingrelationshipsinaregiontoimprovepeople’sfoodandfitness.ThesecondcasedescribesaGoalAchievementstrategytoimprovecountywideeducationwherethecorecorrectiveactionsinvolvedstrengtheningrelationshipsamongdiversestakeholdersandengaginginevidence-basedcontinuousimprovement.

BUILDINGONSTRONGRELATIONSHIPSTOIMPROVEREGIONALFOODANDFITNESS

Page 202: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

WhentheW.K.KelloggFoundationcreatedtheirFood&Fitnessprogramin2006,therewasgrowingpublicconcernaboutchildhoodobesity.Theprogramwasdesignedtoincreasehealthyeatingandactivelivingbyallchildren,andthefoundationhadlongsupporteddevelopingahealthy,safefoodsupplyandincreasingconsumptionofgoodfood.Becausetheissuewashighlycomplexandprioreffortstoaddresstheissueinsimplerwayshadbeenunsuccessful,theleadprogramofficersbelievedthatasystemsapproachtoFood&Fitnesswouldincreasethelikelihoodof:

•Engagingadiversegroupofpeopleandorganizations.•Fosteringcollaborationandfindinginnovativestrategiestochangetheunderlyingsystems.•Creatingandsustainingthehealthyresultseveryoneseeksforchildrenandfamilies.

ThefoundationbroughttogetherstakeholdersfromaroundtheUnitedStatesandalsofundedcommunitysystemschangeprojectsinninegeographiclocationsincludingnortheastIowa.Communityleadersinthisruralregiondevelopedthefollowingvisionfortheirinitiative:“NortheastIowaisauniqueplacewhereallresidentsandguestsexperience,celebrate,andpromotehealthylocallygrownfoodwithabundantopportunitiesforphysicalactivityandplayEVERYDAY.Healthierpeoplemakestrongerfamiliesandvibrantcommunities.”7

Inordertorealizethevision,theyarticulatedaSuccessAmplificationtheoryofchangebasedonthehistoricallystrongrelationshipsamongpeopleintheregion.Theybelievedthatcultivatingtheserelationshipswouldhelpthemmovetowardmorecollectivethinkingabouthowtotakeadvantageoftheiragriculturalbaseandopenspace,aswellasmorecollaborativeaction,betterresults,andevenbetterrelationships.Thevirtuouscyclelinkingrelationships,thinking,action,andresultsisacoretheoryofsuccessoriginallydevelopedbyDanielKim.8Communityleadersalsorecognizedpotentiallimitstogrowthbyacknowledgingthatdelaysinlearningandworkingacrossboundaries,aswellasinconvertinginnovativeideasintonewpolicies,wouldtrypeople’spatience.Toovercometheselimits,theyinvestedincollaborativetechnologies,engaged

Page 203: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

policymakersearlyintheprocess,andsetrealisticexpectationsaroundwhatcouldbeaccomplishedinagiventimeframe.

Figure11.9summarizestheirtheoryofchangewithparticularemphasisontheenginesofgrowthandreinforcingmentalmodels.

AnnMansfield,aco-conveneroftheinitiativeandnowprojectdirector,summarizedtheinitialvalueofusingsystemsthinkingfromagrantee’sperspective:“Thetoolshelpedusputapauseonthequickfix.”Byacknowledgingthestrengthstheywerebuildingon,thetimedelaystheyexpected,andthestepstheyplannedtotaketoreducedelayswheretheycouldandincreasepeople’spatiencewheretheycouldnot,sheandhercolleaguesestablishedarobustandrealisticwayforward.Now,morethansixyearsaftercreatingtheplan,Mansfieldfeelsthat“ourcoretheoryofsuccesshas,indeed,heldupovertime.”Sheandtheteamuseitcontinuouslytostayfocusedonsystemschange.Ithelpsthembringonnewpartners,orientnewstaff,checktheirprogress,andcreatenewstrategiesorlinesofwork.

Page 204: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE11.9SUCCESSAMPLIFICATIONFORNORTHEASTIOWAFOOD&FITNESSINITIATIVE.Thistheoryofchangepositsthatbuildingonthestrongrelationshipsthatexistintheregionincreasescollaboration,whichinturnincreasesinnovation,leadingtopolicychange,healthierpeople,andevenstrongercommunities.Thisdynamicisreinforcedbyholdingcertainassumptions.NortheastIowaFood&FitnessInitiative

Page 205: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CREATINGACOMMUNITYWHEREALLCHILDRENARELOVEDANDSUCCESSFUL

TheInteGreat!coalition,committedtothehealthandsuccessofallchildreninitshighlydiversestudentpopulation,alsoemphasizedtheimportanceofrelationshipsindevelopingitsstrategy.SimilartothecoalitionformedbyECPHE,theychosetodevelopaGoalAchievementtheoryofchangesincetheiremphasiswasoncreatinganinclusivecommunitywhereallchildrenarelovedandsuccessfulinlife.Moreover,becausethepopulationofthecommunitywasmorediversethaninnortheastIowa,intermsofbothincomeandethnicity,theyviewedimprovingrelationshipsasakeypartofthestrategy.Thecoalitionidentifiedsevenkeysuccessfactors,ofwhichfouraddressedrelationshipbuildingdirectly:

•QualityofCommunityRelationships(amongorganizationsimpactingfamilies).•LevelofCollaborationandIntegration.•LevelofYouthEngagement.•LevelofFamilyEngagement.•LevelofData-DrivenandEvidence-BasedPractices.•AccesstoOpportunities.•Equity.

Theydevelopedasystemictheoryofchange—mappedoutinfigures11.10to11.13—tolinkthesefactorsandincludeothersidentifiedduringthedesignconversation.Intheinitialmap,figure11.10,thecoreloop(B1)identifiesthegapbetweenactualanddesiredsuccessasthedriverofimprovingthequalityofcollaborativerelationships,whichinturnwillimprovethelevelofcollaborationandintegrationamongorganizationsimpactingfamilies,therebycreatingmutualshort-termsuccesses,greateraccesstoqualityeducationopportunities,greatersystemequity,andagreaterpresenceofeducationalsuccessfactorsforallkids.

Page 206: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE11.10COLLABORATINGFORLOVEDANDSUCCESSFULCHILDREN.Improvingcollaborationamongserviceprovidersisseenasthekeytosupportingallchildrentobevaluedandsuccessfulbecauseitcanleadtobothmutualshort-termsuccessesandaccesstoqualityopportunitiesthatincreasesystemequityandthepresenceofsuccessfactorsforallkids.

Buildinguponthismap,figure11.11addsloopsB2andB3,whichemphasizethebenefitsofhigher-qualitycollaborativerelationshipstomoreeffectivelyengageyouthandfamilies.

Figure11.12highlightstheimportanceofstrengtheningdata-drivenandevidence-basedpractices.B4focusesondevelopingsharedknowledge.B5and

Page 207: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

B6showhowagreeingonsharedmeasuresleadstomoreeffectiveandefficientresourceuseaswellassupportingmutualshort-termsuccess,bothofwhichincreaseaccesstoqualityopportunities.

FIGURE11.11ENGAGINGYOUTHANDFAMILIESFORLOVEDANDSUCCESSFULCHILDREN.Improvedcollaborationamongserviceprovidersalsoenablesmoreeffectiveoutreachtoyouthandtheirfamilies,therebyfurtherincreasingsystemequity.

Thecoalitionalsodefinedseveralreinforcingloopstoensurethatinitialimprovementswouldbesustainedandstrengthened.R7infigure11.13emphasizestheneedtodevelopalignedinfrastructurebeginningwitha

Page 208: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

backboneorganization.R8notesthatincreasingsystemequitycanfurthersupportaccesstoqualityopportunities.R9identifiesthebenefitsofengagingyouthtoinvolvetheirparentsaswellassupportingparentstoengagetheirkids.R10explainsthatsharedmeasureshelptofurtherfocusdataanalysis.

Page 209: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE11.12MANAGINGDATAINSUPPORTOFLOVEDANDSUCCESSFULCHILDREN.Thedevelopmentofmoreusefuldataleadstosharedknowledge,sharedmeasures,andimproveddata-drivenandevidence-basedpractices.Theseinturnfacilitatemutualshort-term

Page 210: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

successesandthemoreeffectiveandefficientuseofresources,andbothoftheseincreaseaccesstoqualityopportunities.

Page 211: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE11.13REINFORCINGIMPROVEMENTSFORLOVEDANDSUCCESSFULCHILDREN.Initialimprovementscanbereinforcedinfourdifferentways:capitalizingonincreasedcollaborationandintegrationtodevelopanalignedinfrastructure,furtherincreasingaccesstoqualityopportunitiesthroughgreatersystemequity,stimulatingclosertiesbetweenyouthandtheirfamilies,andusingsharedmeasurestostrengthenadditionaldataanalysis.

Oftenpeopledistillmorecomplextheoriesofchangesuchastheoneaboveintosimplerinsightsovertime.TheInteGreat!coalitionsubsequentlyrecognizedthatitstheorywasbasedonthreekeyideas.TraciWodlinger,thechiefstrategyofficerfortheEagleCountySchools,summarizedthemas:

1.Acollaborativetrustthatalignscurrentlyexistingorganizationsandtheirassetswillimprovetheequityofopportunitiesforourchildren.

2.Familiesandchildrenmustbeengagedinthework,bothdirectlyandindirectly.

3.Wemustutilizecontinuousprocessimprovements,wheredatawilldrivechangeandmaximizeefficiencyofoureffortsandresources.

NotethatthechangetheorydepictedinthesediagramsincludesalloftheelementsrequiredforCollectiveImpactasdefinedinchapter2.Thesystemictheoryofchangeisthecommonagendaandexplicitlyincorporatessharedmeasuresandtheneedforabackboneorganization.Italsoprovidesaroadmapformutuallyreinforcingactivitiesandcontinuouscommunication.Moreover,thesecriticalsuccessfactorsaswellasothersemergeddirectlyfromconversationsamongcommunityleaders.

Theconsultanttotheoverallproject,KathleenZurcher,reportsseveralbenefitsresultingfromtheprocessofdesigningthissystemictheoryofchange:

•Themaprepresentsthecoalition’sthinkingabouthowtheywanttomoveforward,andtheyrefertoitfrequentlyastheirroadmap.•Thesmallersteeringcommitteeandlargergroupthatparticipatedinthisprocessaretranslatingtheloopsintonarrativestoexplaintheplantotheirrespectiveconstituents.•Developingthemapincreasedpeople’sunderstandingofinequitiesinthecommunityandstimulatedtheirfirsthonestandopentalkabouttheissue.•Theynowhaveacommonsetofdefinitionsgoingforward.

Page 212: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Themaphelpsthecoalitionfocusonsystemicchange,assuringthatstrategies,tactics,andactivitiesarealignedandcontributetointendedoutcomes.

StreamliningChoicesThefollowingcasedescribesthedevelopmentofasystemictheoryofchangetoorganizeanagency’slargenumbersofprogramsandtasksintoamanageablestrategy.Bydistillingacoherentstrategyfromwhatoftenseemedlikedisparateelements,theorganizationwasabletofocusitscommitmentsandavoidwin–losedebatesabouttherelativeimportanceofdifferentpeople’swork,whichoftenmakeprioritysettingsodifficult.

Alargechildwelfareagencywasconcernedthatitwasspreadtoothin.Thebudgetwastoolowtosustainallofitsprogramsatahighlevelofeffectiveness.Moreover,therewascompetitionforfundingbetweenprogrammanagementandtheagency’sotherfunctions,inparticularresearch&evaluation,andadvocacy.Whentimecametoreviewtheagency’sstrategicplan,theseniormanagementteamdecidedtodevelopasystemictheoryofchange.Bymakingbettersenseoftheconnectionsamongtheorganization’svariousefforts,theteamhopedtostreamlineprogramsandreducetensionsbetweenfunctions.Theteamfirstcategorizeditsprograms—morethanthirty—intofourprimarycategories:

•Prevention:Helpingfamiliesatriskdevelopandmaintainthestabilityrequiredtoprovideasafe,nurturinghomefortheirchildren.•Stabilization:Stabilizingchildrenwhohavetoberemovedfromtheirhomesintransitionalhomesmanagedbytheagency.•Development:Supportingthenurturanceandcontinuededucationofchildreninthesehomes.•Placement:Reunifyingchildrenwiththeirbiologicalfamiliesorprovidingalternativepermanentplacementsfortheminthecommunity.

Theteamthenarticulatedthelinksacrossthesecategories.Ifpreventionfailedtohelpfamiliesovercomethemanyexternalpressurestheyfaced,resultinginanunsafeandunsupportivehomeenvironment,childrenwereremovedfromtheirhomebylawandplacedbytheagencyinthetransitional

Page 213: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

homesitmanaged.Thegoalatthispointbecametoreturnthechildrentoasafe,nurturing,andpermanenthomebycreatingacorepathtorecoverythatprovidedstabilityfollowedbydevelopmentandfinallyreunificationoralternativeplacement—asshowninfigure11.14,loopB1.

FIGURE11.14CREATINGASAFEANDNURTURINGHOMEFORCHILDREN.Whenpressuresonthefamilybecometoogreat,childrenmustbetemporarilyremovedfromthehomeandsustainedthroughfirststabilizingthemandthenfacilitatingtheirongoingdevelopment.Providingthisfoundationoutsidethehomegiveschildrenastrongbaseforreunificationoralternativepermanentplacement.

Thesefourprogramcategoriesrequiredongoingresourcestosustainthem.Themanagementteamclarifiedhowotherfunctionsneededtobeintegratedtoensuretheagency’sfinancialviability.Theagencymaintainedastrongresearchandevaluationunit.However,manyprogrammanagersbelievedthattheunitnotonlydrewmoneyawayfromtheirvitalworkontheground,butalsofailedtoprovidefairevaluationsoftheirwork.Theteamwasabletoidentifythat,when

Page 214: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

theunitconductedassessmentsaccordingtoclearandagreed-uponcriteria,itprovidedinvaluableinformationtotheagencythatnotonlystrengthenedprogramsbutalsocreatedadditionalbenefits.Oneimmediatebenefitwastodirectlyincreasefund-raisingeffectiveness,shownbyR2infigure11.15,andasecondwastodemonstrateevidence-basedpracticesthatcouldbeusedtoadvocateforchangesinchildwelfarepolicy.Moreeffectiveadvocacywouldfurtherincreasefund-raisingeffectiveness(R3),andtheincreasesinfund-raisingeffectivenesswouldprovideongoingresourcesfortheagency’sprogramwork.

Page 215: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE11.15ENSURINGSUSTAINABLERESOURCESOVERTIME.Evaluationandadvocacyarekeytotheeffectivefund-raisingrequiredtoattractadditionalresourcesinsupportoftheagency’scoreprograms.

Asaresultofarticulatingitssystemictheoryofchange,theagencywasabletoidentifyandeliminateprogramsthatdidnotfitintoitsstrategy.Interestingly,themanagersoftheseprogramshadoftentakenupthemostairtimeindefenseoftheirwork,perhapsbecausetheyandtheircolleaguessensedthattheprogramswerenotagoodfitfortheorganization.Theseprogramswereeither

Page 216: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

transferredtoothercommunityorganizationsbettersuitedtomanagethemorphasedoutwhencurrentfundingended.

Thetheoryalsoenabledallofthefunctionstobetterappreciateandintegratetheirdiversecontributionstoensuringchildrenlivedinsafe,nurturinghomes.Forexample,theevaluationandadvocacyunitsresolvedtensionsabouttheirrelativeimportancebyrecognizingthattheorganizationneededtoinvestmoreinevaluationintheshortruntoincreasethequalityofitsadvocacyinthelongrun.Often,sequencingisanessentialaspectofprioritizingbecauseitenablespeopletothinkabouttherelativeimportanceofdifferentworkovertime.9Bycontrast,prioritizingoftenresultsinwin–losedebatesthatdrainorganizationalenergyandgoodwillbecausepeopleassumethat,iftheirworkisnotconsideredahighprioritynow,itneverwillbe.Bytakingtimedelayintoaccount,systemictheoriesofchangecircumventsuchdebatesandenablemanypartiestoaffirmtheircontributionsovertime.Inthecaseoftheevaluationandadvocacyfunctions,theagencyagreedthatitneededtostepupinvestmentinevaluationintheshortruntostrengthenitsplatformforevidence-basedpractices,andshiftmorefundingtoadvocacyovertimeasthisplatformbecamemoreestablished.

HowtoRefineYourSystemicTheoryofChangeSystemictheoriesofchangemustbedesignedtoevolveovertimeasmoreinformationbecomesavailable,actionstakeeffect,andconditionsshift.Refiningyourtheorymeansincorporatingthetheoriesofotherstakeholders,trackinghowkeyelementschangeovertime,andmodifyingthetheorybycomparingwhatyouexpecttohappenwithwhatactuallyoccurs.

Inallofthecasesdiscussedinthischapterthatinvolveddiversecommunitystakeholders,alargergroupofconstituentswasinvitedtorefinethetheorydevelopedbyasmallerleadershipgroup.Itisimportanttoensurethatrefinementsatthisstagecomenotonlyfrompeoplewithintheorganizationsrepresentedbytheleadershipgroup,butalsofromotherkeystakeholderswhomightnothavebeeninvolvedinitially.Theseoftenincludetheultimatebeneficiariesofthework(suchasstudents,patients,andhomelesspeople)andtheprivatesector,whichisoftenmisperceivedbycoreparticipantstohavelessofastakeinsocialissuesorbelessaccessible.Integratingthesediverseviews

Page 217: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

oftenpresentsthesamechallengesaswhenyoudevelopasystemsmaptodeepenyourunderstandingofwhyachronicproblempersists:Thesystemictheorymustberichenoughtoincorporatemultipleperspectivesyetsimpleenoughtoprovideactionableinsights.

Trackingyourtheoryinvolvesidentifyingkeyindicatorsforeachcriticalvariable,estimatingtimedelays,anddrawingapatternofbehaviorthatprojectshoweachkeysuccessfactororperformancemeasureshouldchangeovertime.Anotherelementtotrackismentalmodels:identifyinghowpeople’sassumptionsneedtoevolveovertimeandestimating(oftenwithlongtimedelays)whentoexpectchangestobecomeevident.

Becauselearningtakestimeandcanleadtocostlymistakes,itisimportanttoestablishmilestonesalongthewaytotestmorequicklyifyouareonoroffcourse.Inaddition,bydevelopingacomputersimulationofyourtheory,youcanshortentimedelaysintherealworldtoamatterofsecondsandtherebyaccelerateexperimentationandlearning.Forexample,computersimulationsexistforaddressingclimatechangeandsustainabilityandfortestingalternativemodelsofhealthcaredelivery.10Whilecomputersimulationsrequiremoreup-frontinvestment,theycanquantifyoutcomesandreducethelearningcurvefortestingdifferenttheoriesofchange.

Bycomparingtheintendedandprojectedbehaviorovertimewithwhatactuallyoccurs,youengageincontinuouslearningandcanrefineyourassumptionsandactions.Youareabletorethinkimportantcause–effectrelationships,alteryourstrategyforrevisingmentalmodels,and/oradjustexpectedtimeframes.Trackingandmodifyingyourtheoryofchangewillalsobeexaminedmorecloselyinthenextchapter,onevaluation.

ClosingtheLoop•Circulartheoriesofchangecreatepicturesthatquicklycommunicatealotofreadilyunderstandableandnavigableinformation.•Applyingsystemsthinkingtostrategicplanningcanhelporganizationsandcommunitiesorganizetheleveragepointsidentifiedbyarootcauseanalysis,integratethemultiplecriticalsuccessfactorsrequiredtocreate

Page 218: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

somethingnew,andstreamlinechoicesamongtoomanyprogramsandpriorities.•Basedonthetoolsusedinthisbook,therearetwocoretheoriesofsystemicchange:onethatseekstoamplifysuccessandtheotherthatstrivestoimproveanexistingsituation.•Amplifyingsuccessincludesanticipatinglimitstosuccessandplanningwaystoovercometheselimits.•Achievinggoalsincludesplanningtosustainandbuildonprogressovertime.•Sequencingstrategiesovertimecanbreakthewin–losedynamicsoftenassociatedwithprioritizing.•Systemictheoriesofchangeneedtoevolve—andthiscanbeaccomplishedbyincorporatingthetheoriesofotherstakeholders,trackingwhatactuallyhappensagainstyourprojectionsofwhatshouldhappen,andmodifyingyourtheorybasedonanalyzingandseekingtobridgethisgap.

Page 219: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—CHAPTER12—

SystemsThinkingforEvaluation

Funderswanttodeterminewhetherornottheirinvestmentsaremakingapositivedifference,andrecipientswanttoshowthattheyaremeetingtheirobjectivessothattheycancontinuetoobtainfunding.However,evaluatingsolutionstosocialproblemsisnoteasy.Oneofthechallengesisthecomplexityoftheproblemsthemselves.Inaddition,bothfundersandgranteestendtosetunrealisticgoals—theformerbecauseoftheirdesiretoseeresultsquickly,andthelatterinpartbecauseoftheirhighaspirationsandinpartbecauseoftheirdesiretoimpressfunders.Policymakersinthepublicsectorsometimeslegislateunfundedmandates,makingmissionsdifficulttofulfill.Granteestendtoresistmonitoringandevaluationeffortsbecausetheydonotwanttosetasidelimitedfundsforthisworkandareconcernedaboutuncoveringnegativeevaluations.Andgoalschangeandprioritiesshiftovertime—makingitdifficulttoestablishtheendpointsagainstwhichperformanceisbeingmeasured.

Still,evaluationremainscritical,andprivateandpublicfundersoftenaskhowsystemsthinkingcanhelpcontributetotheprocess.Aswesawinchapter11,systemsthinkingcontributestoevaluationinpartbyhelpingpeoplearticulateasystemictheoryofchangewithkeyindicators,metricsthatcanbetrackedovertime,andpredictedpatternsofbehaviorfortheindicatorsthatcansubsequentlybecomparedwithactualresults.Nowwe’lllookatthegeneralsystemicguidelinesforimprovingevaluation—includingwaystomeetthechallengesdescribedabove—andlearnhowtoassessprogressagainstthetwotheoriesofchangealsointroducedinchapter11.

Page 220: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

GeneralSystemicGuidelinesYoucanusesystemsthinkingtoinformyourevaluationprocessinfiveways:

•Setrealisticgoals.•Defineclearkeyindicatorsandmetrics.•Thinkdifferentlyabouttheshortandlongterm.•Lookforconsequencesalongmultipledimensions.•Committocontinuouslearning.

SETREALISTICGOALS

Unrealisticgoalshurtboththepartysettingtheexpectationsandthepartyagreeingtomeetthem.Itisarecipefortoxicstress,brokenagreements,andfrayedrelationships.Thisisnottodiscouragethepowerofanaspirationalvision.AsHenryDavidThoreausaid,“Ifyouhavebuiltcastlesintheair,yourworkneednotbelost;thatiswheretheyshouldbe.Nowputthefoundationsunderthem.”

Goalsarepartofthefoundation;theyprovidemilestonestostrivefortowardrealizingthevision.Ithelpstosetalimitednumberofgoalsatanyonetime;nomorethanthreeisarecommendedruleofthumb.1Inaddition,asystemictheoryofchangehelpspeopledefinethescopeoftheirintentions,suggestsanordertofollowinachievingthem,andindicatestimedelaystoaddressalongtheway.Agoodtheoryenablespeopletodistinguishshort-andlong-termgoalsanddiscouragesthemfromtryingtodoeverythingatonce.

Whilepeoplemightbedeliberateinsettingalimitednumberofrealisticgoalsattheoutset,itcanbedifficulttosustainfocusonthesegoalsovertime.Newconditionsandprioritiesemergethatcaneasilyoverwhelmusortakeusoffcourse.Thechallengeistoshiftprioritiesconsciouslyifatall,andtoslowdownorstopworkonformercommitmentsinthefaceoflimitedresources.Bycontrast,takingonnewworkwithoutlettinggoofotherworkleadspeopletobecomeunproductivelystressedandreactiveinsteadofstrategic.Howpeoplereacttooverloadtendstocreateviciouscyclesthatincreaseworkloadfurther

Page 221: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

overtime.Toavoidgettingcaughtinthesecycles,ithelpstodeliberatelyandregularlyrebalanceworkloadwithavailableresources.2

DEFINECLEARINDICATORSANDMETRICS

Asnotedinchapter10,itisimportanttofocuson,andifnecessarycreate,indicatorsandmetricsthatarealignedwithpeople’schosenpurpose.Inselectingthem,youcanincludebothqualitativeandquantitativemeasures—bothofwhichareimportantindevelopingrichsystemsmaps.Forexample,boththelevelofcollaborationamongserviceprovidersandbiometriclevelsofhealthareimportantfactorstotrackinbuildingahealthycommunity.Itcanhelptobreakdownamoreabstractvariablesuchascollaborationintoelementsthatmaybemoremeasurable,suchastheuseofacommonlanguageandcommitmenttosharedgoalsandstrategies.Interviewswithkeystakeholdersandopinionsurveysaretwowaysofgatheringqualitativedata,whichalsoincludesthementalmodelsheldbydifferentstakeholders.

Oneofthebenefitsofsystemsthinkingisthatithelpspeoplelookforleverage.Onewaytothinkaboutleverageisthatsomeactionsproduceahigherreturnoninvestment(oftime,money,people,orotherinputs)thanothers.TheconceptofmeasuringreturnsthroughratiosinsteadofabsolutenumberswascriticaltothreetypesofmetricsdevelopedbytheAmericanProductivityandQualityCenter,whichdistinguishedmeasuresofproductivity,effectiveness,andefficiency.3Thecenterdefinedproductivityastheratioofoutcomestoinputs,whereoutcomesaretheresultsachievedbyintendedbeneficiariesandinputsaretheresourcesexpended.Effectivenesswastheratioofoutcomestooutputs,whereoutputsarewhattheresourcesproduce.Andefficiencywastheratioofoutputstoinputs.

Forexample,itisnotenoughtoknowthatajobsprogramcostsfiftythousanddollars(aninput),providesonehundredhoursoftraining(anoutput),orevenresultsin70percentofthegraduatesgettinglivingwagejobsandholdingthesejobsforatleastoneyear(anoutcome).Itisimportanttoalsoevaluatethe

Page 222: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

numberofsuchqualityjobscreatedperdollarspentonthetraining(productivity),thenumberofqualityjobscreatedpertraininghour(effectiveness),andthenumberoftraininghoursperdollarspent(efficiency).

WhenmycolleagueJohnMcGahandIwereaskedbyastatewidehomelesscoalitiontoproposemeaningfulindicatorsforendinghomelessness,weproposedsuchsystems-thinking-basedmetricsas:

•OverallEffectiveness=(#homelesspeoplepermonthmovedintopermanenthousing)–(#peoplepermonthbecominghomeless):Lookformonthlydeclinein#homelesspeople.•PreventionEffectiveness=(#peoplepermonthbecominghomeless)÷(#peoplepermonthatriskofbecominghomelessduetoincomelevelandfamilystressors):Lookfordecline.•LivingWageJobCreationDividend=(rentpaidbytenants+incometaxesgeneratedpertenantperyear)–($spentperpersonperyearonjobtrainingandrelocation):Suggestsannual$toreinvestinjobcreation.

THINKDIFFERENTLYABOUTTHESHORTANDLONGTERM

Asnotedinchapter3,distinguishingbetweenquickfixesandsmallsuccessesenablespeopletoincreasethelikelihoodofaccuratelyevaluatingshort-termimprovements.Quickfixesaresolutionsthatworkintheshortrun,tendtoproducelonger-termconsequencesthatneutralizeorreversetheinitialoutcomes,andareusuallydevelopedwithoutaclearunderstandingoftherootcausesoftheproblemoralong-termstrategy.Bycontrast,smallsuccessesareshort-termresultsthatbuildmomentumtowardalong-termstrategybasedonadeepappreciationofthecurrentissue.

Therearesixthingsyoucandotodetermineiftheshort-termgainsachievedbyanactionarealsolikelytoleadtolong-termimprovements:

•Rememberthatsystemstendtoexhibitbetter-before-worsebehavior.•Refertotherelevantsystemsanalysisthatdistinguishedproblemsymptomsfromrootcausesandensurethatyourimprovementaddressesrootcauses.

Page 223: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Inquireintothesystemictheoryofchangethatinformedthechoiceofthisaction.•Ensurethattimedelayswereconsideredinarrivingattheactionstobetaken,andthatpeopleeitheracceptthesedelaysoridentifystrategicwaystoshortenthem.•Lookforearlysuccessesthatbuildsystemwidecapacities(inrelationships,insight,andorganizationinfrastructure)insteadofthosethatimmediatelyreduceproblemsymptomssuchaslowtestscoresorpoorhealth.•Buildacomputersimulationoftheissuetoquicklytestthedifferencesbetweentheshort-andlong-termconsequencesofvariousactions.

LOOKFORCONSEQUENCESALONGMULTIPLEDIMENSIONS

Inadditiontoevaluatingimpactsdifferentlyintheshortandlongterm,ithelpstolookforconsequencesalongotherdimensions.First,someconsequencesareintendedwhileothersarenot—andbothprovidevaluableinformationandimplicationsfornextsteps.Second,notallunintendedconsequencesarenegative,anditisimportanttotrackandbuildonpositiveunintendedconsequencesaswell.Third,itisimportanttolookforresourcesthataredevelopedand/orsavedaswellasthosethatareusedtogetacompletepictureofthereturnonyourinvestment.

AnexcellentvideodescribingalloftheseimpactsrelatesthesurprisingstoryofeffortstobringfreshpotablewatertopeopleinruralTogo,WestAfrica,bybuildingwellsinlocalvillages.4Thewellsbuiltbygovernmentengineerswereinitiallymetbypositiveresponsesfromvillagersbecausetheyreplacedtheirtraditionalwatersupplyobtainedfromwaterholesinfectedbyguineaworm,apainfulandsometimeslife-threateningparasite,andfetchedbyvillagewomenmakinglongwalksoftentwoorthreetimesaday.However,aftertwoyearsthewellswereabandonedbecausethemainpartofthepumpbroke,andneitherthevillagesnorthegovernmenthaddevelopedtheinfrastructuretomaintainthem.

InthecaseofTogo,theengineerswentbacktothevillagesandlearnedwhythewellshadfallenintodisuse.Theyrealizedthattheyneededtohelpthevillagerslearntodotheirownmaintenance.Thisinvolvedworkingwithvillagerstodevelopthelocalinfrastructureandskillsrequiredtoidentifythe

Page 224: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

causesofbreakdowns,collectmoneytorepairthepump,andfixthepump.Thegovernmentalsostockedpartsforthepumpsinnearbytownstoensurethatvillagerscouldmaketheirownrepairs.Theinfrastructurecreatedbythevillagersenabledthemtonotonlymaintaintheirwellsbutalsoinitiateandmanagetheirowndevelopmentprojectsthatprovidedthemwithadditionalfoodandincome.

COMMITTOCONTINUOUSLEARNING

Becausesystemsarecomplexandevolveinunpredictableandoftenunexpectedways,evaluationmustbeapproachedasanongoingactivity.Youcanfacilitatecontinuouslearninginseveralways:

•Ifyouareafunder,committolonger-terminvestments.Thismakesiteasierforbothfundersandtheirbeneficiariestolearnfromfailuresaswellassuccessessincepeoplenolongerfeelcompelledtodownplayorhidetheformerandinflatethelatter.

•Continuetoengageexistingstakeholdersandinvolvenewones.Activestakeholderengagementnotonlyprovidesthefeedbackessentialtolearningandadaptingovertime,butalsobuildsincreasinglevelsofownershipamongmorepeople.

•Usefeedbackfromexperimentsandstakeholderinvolvementtorefineyoursystemsanalysisandtheoryofchangeovertime.Themoreaccurateyourunderstandingofwhatishappeningandwhy,andthecleareryourroadmapgoingforward,themoreeffectiveyouwillbe.

TrackingSuccessAmplificationBecauseaSuccessAmplificationtheoryofchangehasarecognizabletrajectory,youcanlookformorespecificindicatorstoevaluateifyouareontrackinimplementingit.TheS-curveinfigure4.6—replicatedinasomewhatdifferentformatinfigure12.1—isthepatternofnaturalorganicgrowth.Itmovesthroughthreephases:aninitialphaseofslowgrowthwhereprogressisnotreadily

Page 225: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

visible,asecondphaseofsteepgrowthwhereprogressisdramatic,andathirdphaseofmaturationwheregrowthslowsdownandplateaus.Thechallengeformostpeople,includingpolicymakers,funders,andmanagers,isthattheirexpectationsforlineargrowthareoutofsyncwiththispattern,asshowninfigure12.1.Wetendtoexpectmoremeasurableprogressthanisnaturalintheearlyphase,canbecomeoverwhelmedbyrapidgrowthinthesecondphase,andbecomecomplacentwhenprogressexceedsourexpectationsinthethirdphase.Peoplewhoexpectevenfasterimprovementsintheshortrunarelikelytobecomeevenmorefrustratedthanthosewithlinearexpectations.

Thekeyforevaluatorsistoknowwhattoexpectandlookforineachphaseofthegrowthprocess.Theimportantchangestocultivateandassessinthefirstphasehavetodowithfoundationbuilding:developingthecommonground,systemwiderelationships,andorganizationalcapacitiesrequiredforinnovationandthemanagementofgrowth.Improvementsintheseareasconstitutethesmallsuccessesthatbuildmomentumforlong-termsuccess.

Establishingcommongroundmeansdefiningpeople’ssharedaspirationsintermsoftheirvision,mission,andvalues.Italsoentailsdevelopingacommonunderstandingofcurrentrealitybybeginningtoprogressivelyfillintheicebergintroducedinchapter3,andeventuallyagreeingonasharedsystemictheoryofchangeasdescribedinchapter11.

Page 226: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGURE12.1ALIGNEXPECTATIONSWITHORGANICGROWTH.People’sexpectationsforlineargrowtharenotinalignmentwiththeS-patternoforganicgrowth.Youcanalignlinearexpectationswithorganicgrowthbydevelopingcapacityandsmallsuccessesintheshortterm,quantifyingandcommunicatingoutcomesinthemediumterm,andtransformingcomplacencyintoinnovationinthelongterm.Innovationfuelsanewengineofgrowthleadingtoanupturninperformance;however,thefailuretoinnovateatthispointresultsinaflatteningordownturninperformanceovertime.

Relationshipbuildingneedstobeassessedinthreeareas:acrossserviceproviderswhowouldotherwisetendtotrytooptimizejusttheirpartofthesystem,acrossinstitutionsincludingnotonlythesocialandpublicbutalsobusinesssectors,andbetweenthesegroupsandtheintendedbeneficiariesofchange—thepeoplewhosevoicesareoftennotheardorsufficientlyappreciated.Inthisphase,anevaluatorshouldask:Arethereforumsforstakeholderstocometogetherandmakenewconnections?Arethoseinvolveddevelopingthecollaborativecapacitiesofsystemsthinking,partakinginproductiveconversations,andtakingresponsibilityfortheperformanceofthewholesystemaswellasfortheirpart?

Itisalsovitaltobuildorganizationalcapacity,especiallyinnonprofitswheretheexpectationhasbeenthatoverheadshouldbeaslowaspossibleinrelationtoprogramdelivery.Intheirsection“ReformingtheArtofHelping”inAPathAppears,NicholasKristofandSherylWuDunnpointoutthatunderinvestingin

Page 227: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

theinfrastructureandbusinessskillsofnonprofitssignificantlyreducestheirimpact.Itisimportanttohelpthembemoreeffectivebyinvestinginsuchorganizationalcapacitiesascomputersandinformationsystems,marketingandcustomerrelations,personneldevelopmentandtalent,andevaluation.5

Developingtheabovefoundationinphaseonepositionsthesystemtomoreeffectivelymanagetherapidgrowthtobeexpectedinthesecondphase.Hereiswhereitmakessensetomeasureoutcomesandcomparethemtotheoutputsgeneratedandinputsinvested.Hereiswhereithelpstogaugethebenefitsofsavedandmoreproductivelivesagainstthecostsofdoingnothing.

Thethirdstagebeginswithacertainamountoflevelingofformaturation.Thekeyatthisstageistoshiftfromatendencytowardcomplacencywithpastsuccessestoacommitmenttoinnovationandfindingnewwaystogrow.Althoughencounteringlimitstogrowthasidentifiedinchapter4isinevitable,itisalsopossibleandessentialtoovercometheselimitsbyidentifyingnewenginesofgrowthatthisstageinsteadofsimplypushingharderontheoldones.Successinmakingthisshiftismeasuredintermsofsowingseedsforadifferentapproachtodevelopmentinsteadofallowingperformancetolevelofforgraduallydecline.

TrackingGoalAchievementAGoalAchievementtheoryalsohasarecognizabletrajectory.Ithastwocharacteristicphases:correction(orimprovement)andreinforcement.Evaluatorscanpayattentiontoseveralindicatorsforthelikelysuccessofeachphase.

ManyoftheindicatorsofsuccessinphaseoneofSuccessAmplificationaresimilartotheonesforcorrection,whileothersrequirespecialattentionhere.Similaritiesincludeestablishingcommonground,buildingrelationshipsandrelationalskills,anddevelopingorganizationalcapacities.Whatisdistinctistheoftenadditionalinvestmentrequiredtodescribecurrentreality.Itisespeciallyimportantindeterminingcorrectiveactionstofirstclarifytherootcausesofthecomplex,chronicproblemthatpeoplearetryingtosolve,ortohelpanswerthequestion,“Whyhaven’twebeenabletoachievethisgoaldespiteourbestefforts?”Equallyimportantistorecalibratethisunderstandingifpeoplearenotprogressingasexpected.

Page 228: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Asdemonstrableprogressisbeingmade,itisvitaltoensurethatpeoplemaintainmomentumthroughconsciousreinforcement.Thismeansensuringthatgoalsincreasealongwithactualperformance,thatpeopleidentifyandinvestinnewgrowingactionstoachievethesegoals,andthatdividendsfrominitialimprovementsareredirectedtofundthesenewactions.

Thebottomlineofthinkingsystemicallyaboutevaluationisthatassessmentinvolvesmuchmorethanmeasuringoutcomes.Itincludesrealisticgoalsetting;clarifyingarangeofindicatorsandmetricsalignedwiththechosenpurpose,bothquantitativeandqualitative;thinkingdifferentlyabouttheshort-andlong-termimpactsofactions;lookingforconsequencesalongmultipledimensions;andcommittingtocontinuouslearning.SuccessAmplificationandGoalAchievementtheoriesofchangesharecertaincommonindicatorsofsuccessintheirinitialphases,butvaryintermsofwhatevaluatorsneedtolookfortomeasuresuccessovertime.

ClosingtheLoop•Complexityisonlyoneofseveralchallengestoevaluationthatsystemsthinkingcanhelpyoumeet.•Aclearsystemictheoryofchangeprovidesastrongfoundationforeffectiveevaluation.•Toincreasethelikelihoodofpositiveevaluations,ensurethatorganizationssetrealisticgoalsinthefirstplaceandconsciouslyrebalanceworkloadwithresourcesovertime.•Trackbothquantitativeandqualitativemetrics.•Usesixguidelinestodistinguishquickfixesfromshort-termsuccesses.•Lookforconsequencesthatareunintendedaswellasintended,negativeaswellaspositive,andthatcreateaswellasexpendresources.•Supportcontinuouslearning.•Evaluateprogresstowardamplifyingcurrentsuccessesbydistinguishingthreedifferentphasesofgrowth.•Evaluateprogresstowardbridgingthegapbetweencurrentrealityandsystemgoalsbydistinguishingtwodifferentphasesofimprovement.

Page 229: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—CHAPTER13—

BecomingaSystemsThinker

Becomingadeeplyskilledsystemsthinkertakestime,butitisdefinitelypossible.We’velearnedthat,ononelevel,systemsthinkingischild’splay:Wearebornwiththecapacitytoseeconnectionsandunderstand(thoughnotnecessarilytolerate)timedelay.We’vealsolearnedthattheveryworkofapplyingsystemsthinkingtoolsandpracticesnotonlyhonesthatcapacitybutalsoshapeswhoweareandhowweseetheworld.Thisorientationinturnincreasesoureffectivenessinapplyingthetoolsandpractices.

Thisfinalchapterfocusesonthreewaysyoucanbecomeamoreeffectivesystemsthinker.First,ithelpsyoudevelopwhatIwouldcallasystemsorientation.Sinceweareapartofthesystemweseektounderstandandinfluence,weneedtocultivateacertainwayofbeingandalsolearnnewwaysofdoingthings.WeneedtoappreciatewhatPeterSengecallstheessenceofthediscipline—thestateofbeingorlifeorientationthatinfusesyourworkasasystemsthinker.1Thinkingsystemicallyisparadoxicallynotjustamentaldisciplinebutalsoanemotional,physical,andultimatelyspiritualone.

Second,thechapterdescribesaneffectivewayoflearningtoapplysystemsthinkingforsocialchange.Itintroducesafacilitatedactionlearningapproachthatenablesyoutointegratesystemsanalysistoolsintothechangemanagementframeworkofthisbookandguidesyoutoapplytheframeworkandtoolstoarealchangechallengeinyourorganizationorcommunity.Finally,thechapterreviewsasetofkeyquestionsyoucanasktoopenthedoorforotherstothinksystemically—whetherornottheyarevisualthinkers,candrawasystemsmapthemselves,orhavepreviouslylearnedtoreadthesemaps.

Page 230: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

DevelopaSystemsOrientationDonellaMeadowsobserved,“Socialsystemsaretheexternalmanifestationsofculturalthinkingpatternsandofprofoundhumanneeds,emotions,strengths,andweaknesses.”2Inotherwords,theycannotsimplybechangedbydictate,orevenbyintroducingafewgoodideas.Oureffectivenessassocialchangeagentsisimpactedbyourowncapacitiesandcharactertraitsaswellasbythemultipledimensionsofhumanexperiencethatweseektoinfluence.

Itistemptingtoviewsystemsthinkingasjustamentaldiscipline.However,thisperspectivemissestherichnessandbreadthoftheapproach—whichalsoincludesemotional,physical,andspiritualdimensions.Integratingallofthesedimensionsincreasesyoureffectivenessinapplyingsystemsthinkingtomeetthecomplexchallengesthatorganizationsandothersocialsystemsface.Let’slookateachofthesefourdomainsinturn.

MENTAL

Systemsthinkingisalanguageandsetoftoolsmeanttoilluminateourthinkingabouthowthesystemsweareallpartofactuallyoperate.Builtintothislanguageareimportantcoreprinciplesabouthowsystemsfunction:

•Feedback:Performanceofourorganizationsandsystemsislargelydeterminedbyawebofinterconnectedcircular(notlinear)relationships.•GrowthandStability:Feedbackhelpsusunderstandhowsystemsbothgrowandremainstable.•DiversityandResilience:Systemsgrowandinnovatethroughdiversity,andtheyremainstablebecauseoftheirresilienceinthefaceofchange.•Delay:Actionswetakehavebothimmediateanddelayedconsequencesthatwedonotalwaysconsider.•UnintendedConsequences:Today’sproblemsweremostlikelyyesterday’ssolutions.•PowerofAwareness:Whenweseeandunderstandasystemasitreallyoperates,webuildonitsinherentstrengthsandavoidbeingcontrolledbyitsweaknesses.

Page 231: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Leverage:Systemsimproveastheresultofafewkeycoordinatedchangessustainedovertime.

Systemslanguageandprinciplesoftencombinetocreaterecognizablepatternsorclassicstories.Thecorestorydescribeshowpeopletendtofallshortoftheresultstheywantdespitetheirbestefforts.Systemarchetypesareallvariationsonthistheme.Theydescribedifferentwaysinwhichtheseshortfallscanresultfrompeople’sunderlyingassumptionsandactions,aswellasfromthemultipleandsometimesconflictinggoalsthatcompetefortheirattention.

EMOTIONAL

Itcanbeverydifficulttoacknowledgehowyourownthinkingandbehaviorcontributetotheproblemsyouwanttosolve.Onetendencywehaveistoblameothersinsteadoftakingresponsibilitywhenthingsdonotworkoutasplanned.Systemsthinkingisoneofthetoolswehavetohelpusshiftfromblametoresponsibilityandhenceempowerourselvesbytakingchargeofourownreality.3Arelatedtendencyistotrytocompensateforfeelingsofpowerlessnessbytryingtocontrolthesysteminsteadofpartnerwithit.Whenweempowerourselveswearemoreabletoworkwiththeforcesatplayinthesystem—tobothappreciatewhatworksaboutitandrespectfullyaddresswhatdoesnot—insteadoftounconsciouslyworkagainsttheforcesandoftenmakethingsworse.

Nomatterhowlimitingourbeliefsandassumptions,wetendtobeemotionallyattachedtothembecauseweequatewhowearewithwhatwethink.Moreover,wearefrequentlyrewardedforstronglyadvocatingourbeliefs.Therefore,changinghowwethinkinvolvesthehumility,curiosity,andcouragetotakesuchemotionalrisksasadmittingwemightnotberight,experimentingwithnewassumptionsandbehaviors,andlearningfromothers.Itisimportanttobeacceptingofeveryone’sviewssincetheycancontributetoourownunderstanding,andtobecompassionatetowardthemsinceallofushaveourownlimitedperspectives.4Thesearethecompetenciesofemotionalmaturityandsocialintelligence.

Page 232: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

PHYSICAL

Systemsthinkingisateamsport.Itworksbecausestakeholderswithdiverseperspectivescometogethertosharetheirviews,expandtheirunderstanding,anddevelopamorecompletepictureoftherealitytheyallface.Theprimarypurposeofmappingasystemistostimulatecatalyticconversationsthatleadtosharedinsightsandsharedresponsibility,whichinturnprovidethefoundationforcoordinatedaction.

Coordinatedactiontakesplaceinthephysicalrealm.Itismadepossiblethroughacombinationofconveningsystemically—bringingdiversestakeholderstogethertosharetheiraspirations,viewpoints,andexperiences—withthinkingsystemically—understandingacomplexproblemintermsoftheinterdependenceofitsparts.Conveningsystemicallybyitselftendstoencouragepeopletotrytooptimizetheirpartofthesystemattheexpenseofthewhole,andthinkingsystemicallyinisolationtendstoproduceinsightsthatpeopledonotidentifywithorwanttosupport.

SPIRITUAL

Systemsthinkingisaspiritualpracticebecauseithelpsyouseethat:

•Everythingisconnected.•Youhavechoicesaboutfurtheringpositiveconnections—orfeedingdysfunctionalones.•Inordertomakeconstructivechoices,ithelpstodevelopcertaincharactertraits.

Learningtoseeconnections,makegoodchoices,andcultivatecharacterstrengthsareallspiritualpractices.SeeConnections

Manyspiritualtraditionsarebasedonabeliefthateverythingisconnected.ThethreemonotheisticWesternreligionsstemfromabeliefthatweallcomefromandhenceareconnectedbythesamelifesource.InBuddhism,Indra’sNet

Page 233: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

symbolizesauniversewhereinfinitelyrepeatedmutualrelationsexistamongallitsmembers.InHinduism,thetruerealityistheinnerspiritualprincipleAtman-Brahman,whichgiveslifeandbeingtoallthings.

Wehurtourselvesandtheworldarounduswhenwefailtorecognizeandcultivateouressentialconnectedness.TheverywordreligionhasitsrootsintheLatinwordreligare,commonlytranslatedas“tobind.”Itisallaboutmakingconnections.Fromthisviewpoint,systemsthinkingcanbeviewedastheworkofenablingpeopletomakeconnectionsinserviceofthewhole.Servingthewholehasbothmoralandpracticalbenefits:Westrivetocontributetothegreatergood,includingourown,andtobuildstrongersupportforchangebyappreciatingeveryone’sinterests.Theconnectionswegeneratearenotonlyemotionalonesamongpeoplebutalsologicalonesamongthepartsofthesystemthatpeopleidentifywith.Systemsthinkingenablesustotransformthepartsofamorecomplexproblemintoasharedunderstandingofthelargerissue,andtoorganizepartsofastrategyintoacleardirectionandnavigableroadmap.MakeGoodChoices

Justbecauseeverythingisconnecteddoesnotmeanthatallconnectionsarepositive.Wecanbeconnectedforbetter—suchaswhenmyesteemofyouenhancesyoursofme—orforworse,aswhenmydisregardofyouincreasesyoursofme.Inadifferentcontext,themarketdynamicsthatfueledthehousingboomalsocreatedthedeeprecessionof2008.

Connectingwellmeans:

•Orientingyouractionstowardgoalsthatservethewholeovertime.•Optimizingrelationshipsamongthepartsofthesystem—insteadofseekingtooptimizejustyourpart.•Clarifyingandexpandingtheboundaryofthesystemforwhichyoufeelresponsible.

Clarifyinggoals,cultivatingpositiverelationships,anddefiningsystemboundariesareallchoices.OnepowerfulexampleisthestoryofpediatricsurgeonVictorGarcia,thefounderofTraumaServicesatCincinnatiChildren’sHospital.Garcia’spatientsincludedyoungchildrenwhohadbeencaughtinthecrossfireofurbanviolence.Despitehisbesteffortsasadoctor,hewasnotable

Page 234: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

tosavethelivesofallofthem.Onedaytheparentsofayoungboywhohaddiedinhiscaresoughtconsolationbyaskinghimifhehaddonethebesthecouldtosavetheirchild.Inthatmoment,herealizedthattheanswerwasno.Byconfininghisworkinsidethewallsofthehospital,hehadisolatedhimselffromthecausesofviolencethathadledtotheboy’sdeath.Asaresult,hechosetoredefine“doinghisbest”asreachingbeyondthehospitaltoaddressthedangerousandunhealthyconditionsoftheinnercitywherehispatientslived.HefoundCoreChangetodevelopsystemicsolutionstopovertyanditseffectsonthesechildren.5

CultivateCharacterStrengths

Inordertomakechoicesthatproducepositiveconnections,itisimportanttodevelopcertainqualitiesorcharactertraitswithinourselves.Theseinclude:

•Curiosity:Beingopentolearning,particularlyinthefaceoffailingtoachievewhatyoureallycareabout.•Respect:Assumingthateveryoneisdoingthebesttheycanwithwhattheyknowatthetime.•Compassion:Recognizingthatatsomelevelpeopleareunawareoftheharmtheydoandthatlimitedawarenesscontributestosuffering.•Awareness:Knowingyourself,seeingmoreofthewholeofwhichyouareapart,andunderstandinghowyoumightunwittinglybecontributingtotheverysituationyouwanttochange.•Vision:Listeningforwhatmovesyouandwhatisbeingcalledforbytheworldaroundyou.Workingforwhatyoudeeplycareaboutandremembering,inthewordsofVáclevHavel,that“hope...isthecertaintythatsomethingmakessensenomatterhowitturnsout.”•Courage:Takingastandfortheintegrityandsustainabilityofthewholeinthefaceofseeminglymoreexpedientalternatives.Goingevenfartherandasking,“WhatmightIorwehavetogiveupinorderforthewholesystemtosucceed?”•Patience:Developingthepatienceandpersistencetostaythecourseinthefaceofuncertaintyandtimedelay.

Page 235: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Flexibility:Balancingtheabilitytostayoncoursewiththeflexibilitytoadjustinthefaceofnewinformation.

LearnbyDoingTryingtosolvechronic,complexproblemsisdaunting,andyoudon’thavetobeanexperttotakethefirststep.Yourabilitiesasasystemsthinkerwillgrowovertime,andyoucanlearnbydoing.

Oftengroupsrecruithelp.MichaelGoodmanandIdevelopedanapproachthatenablesparticipantstoimmediatelyapplytheprinciplesandtoolslaidoutinthisbooktoachievesignificantchangesintheirownorganizationsandcommunities.Wefollowthisapproachwhenworkingwithawiderangeofstakeholders—foundations,NGOs,publicagencies,andprivatebusinesses.Theprocesscanbedesignedto:solveoneormoreproblems,developasystemictheoryofchange,and/orbuildcapacityinsystemsthinking.Peoplebenefitfromacombinationofworkingmeetings,training,andcoachinginrealtimeoveranaveragethree-tosix-monthperiod.

Whetherornotyouareworkingwithaconsultantorcoachtoorganizeyoursystems-thinkingprocess,youmayfinditusefultointroducethebasiclanguage,principles,andtoolsofsystemsthinkingtopeopleinorganizationsandcommunitieswhocanbenefitfromtheapproachbutdonotwanttobecomeproficientinitthemselves.Forthosewhoprefertolearnonline,Michaelhasdevelopedaninteractiveweb-basedcoursecalled“ApplyingSystemsThinkingandCommonArchetypestoOrganizationalIssues.”6Thereisalsoawiderangeofadditionalresourcesonsystemsthinkingthatyoucanturnto(seeAppendixD).

Finally,Iencourageyoutopracticesystemsmappingonyourownbytakinganychronic,complexproblemyouareinterestedin—whetheritbeclimatechange,theexpandinginfluenceofmoneyinpolitics,orariftbetweenyouandalovedone—andusingthetoolsoutlinedinchapters3,4,and7tounderstanditbetter.Workingwithanissueyouarepassionateabouthelpsyouovercometheinitialawkwardnessoflearningsomethingnewandexperiencethesatisfactionthatcancomewithdeeperinsight.

Page 236: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Likeanynewlanguage,systemsthinkingtakespractice.Ihopethatthecasesinthisbookinspireyoutoputinthispracticesoyoucanlearnovertimetocreatesimilarresultsforyourselfwiththepeopleandcausesyoucareabout.

AskSystemicQuestionsOneofthemosteffectivewaystobecomeasystemsthinkerandhelpothersdothesameistoaskpowerfulquestions.Youcandothiswhetherornotyouareavisualthinker,drawasystemsmap,orexpectotherstoreadthesemaps.Itcanhelptorememberthat,whilethemapsaregreatpromptstocreatecatalyticconversations,askinggoodquestionsalsoopensthedoortonewwaysofthinking,communicating,andunderstanding.

Bywayofreview,herearesomeofthemostusefulquestionsyoucanask:

•Wheredoourbestintentionsfallshortofachievingwhatwereallycareabout?•Whyarewenotassuccessfulaswewanttobedespiteourbestefforts?•Whatmightbeourresponsibilityfortheobstaclesweencounterandshortfallsweexperience?•Aretherepeoplewhosharesimilaraspirationstooursbuthaveverydifferentviewsaboutthenatureoftheproblemand/orthesolution?Ifso,whatcanwedotohelpalignourrespectiveeffortsmoreeffectively?•Whatcanwelearnfromapreliminaryinquiryintospecificeventsrelatedtoourissue,underlyingtrendsorpatternsofbehaviorovertime,andaconsiderationofdeepersystemsstructure?•Howmighttheconceptsoftimedelay,archetypes,andtheBathtubincreaseourunderstandingofsystemsstructurerelatedtotheissue?•Whichstakeholdersarewecomfortableengagingnow,andwhataretheirmotivationsforchange?•Bycontrast,whichstakeholdersmightwenotchoosetoengageattheoutset—andwhy?Whatmightwemissbynotinvolvingtheminitially,andwhatstrategiesdowehaveforengagingthemovertime?•Howcanwecreatecommongroundamongthestakeholdersweengagenow?

Page 237: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Howdoweincreasepeople’sunderstandingoftheissueinawaythatintegratestherichnessofdiverseperspectiveswiththesimplicityrequiredtoact?•Howdowebuildsupportforananalysisthatmightbedifficulttocommunicateorthatchallengespeople’sunderlyingbeliefsandassumptions?•Whatisthecaseforthestatusquo?•Whatmightwehavetogiveupinorderforthewholetosucceed?•Whatinterventionscouldenableustoachievesustainable,breakthroughchange?•Whatmightbetheunintendedconsequencesofourproposedsolutions?•Howdoweensurecontinuouslearningandoutreach?•Whatisoursystemictheoryofchange?•Howdoweevaluateprogresstowardourvisionusingasystemlens?•Whatactionscanwetaketobecomebettersystemsthinkers?•Whatdoweintendtodonext?

AUSParkServicesmanagerobserved,“Iusedtothinkoftheorganizationasamachine,andthatthingslikerockslidesandtrafficjamscausedbreakdownsinthemachine;andnowIseetheorganizationasanorganismwherethosearejusteventsandthetruesourcesofbreakdownareegos,mentalmodels,andpoorcommunications/relationships.”Becomingamoreeffectivesystemsthinkerincludesdevelopinganorientationandwayofbeingthatincorporatestheemotional,behavioral,andspiritual—aswellascognitive—dimensionsoflife.Ittakestimeandpracticewithreal-worldchallenges.Andremember,evenifyouneverdrawasystemsmaponyourown,youcanalwaysaskpowerfulquestionsthatopenthedoorforyouandotherstothinksystemically.

ClosingtheLoop•Systemsthinkingisnot(just)whatyouthink.•Becomingamoreeffectivesystemsthinkermeansdevelopingyouremotional,behavioral,andspiritual—aswellascognitive—capacities.

Page 238: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

•Thebestwaytolearnisbydoing,andtherearemanyresourcesavailabletohelp.•Whenyouarenotsurewhattodonext,askasystemicquestion.

Page 239: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Theideasthathavegoneintowritingthisbookstemfromthecontributionsofmanypeopleovernearlyfortyyears.

Ifirstwanttothankmylong-timecolleagueMichaelGoodman,aleadingsystemsthinkerwhosharesmypassionforenablingleadersandorganizationstoapplytheseprinciplesandtoolstoreal-worldissuesineasilyaccessibleways.MichaelandIco-createdthechange-managementframeworkthatappearsinchapters5–10andtheLeadingSystemicChangeworkshop,whichwehaveconductedfornearlytwentyyearsinawiderangeoforganizations,leadership-developmentinstitutes,andprofessionalconferences.Asthedirectorofthesystems-thinkingpracticeatInnovationAssociates(nowInnovationAssociatesOrganizationalLearning),Michaelalsocontributedtothedevelopmentofthesystemsarchetypesandmanyoftheothertoolsusedinthisbookandbyagenerationofsystems-thinkingpractitioners.Hewasalsokindenoughtoreadtheentiremanuscriptandoffervaluableimprovements.

IalsowanttoespeciallythanktwoothercolleagueswithwhomIhaveworkedcloselytodevelopandtesttheideasinthisbook.JohnMcGah,thefounderofthenationalnonprofitGiveUSYourPoor,stronglyreinforcedthebenefitsofusingsystemsthinkingtomotivatediversestakeholderstotranscendtheirimmediateself-interestsandapplybestpracticestoendinghomelessness,particularlywhenthosepracticeschallengemoretraditionalwaysofthinking.

KathleenZurcherhasinspiredandgivenmemanyopportunitiestohelpcommunitiesdevelopsystemictheoriesofchange.AstheformerchieflearningofficerattheW.K.KelloggFoundation,shehasalsocollaboratedwithmeindevelopingwaystoexplainthevalueofappliedsystemsthinkingtotheworkoffoundations.

IamverygratefultomyfellowcofoundersofInnovationAssociates,whogavemetheopportunitytocultivateandpromotethedisciplinesoforganizationallearning.CharlesKieferwastheprimaryfounderofInnovationAssociatesandhelpedpioneerthefieldthroughhiscommitmenttocreating

Page 240: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

organizationsasvehiclesforpeopletorealizetheirhighestaspirations.Heorchestratedtheintegrationoftraditionalorganizationaldevelopment,systemsthinking,andpersonalmasteryintoacompellingsynthesis,whichfellowcofounderPeterSengesubsequentlyexpandedontowritethemanagementclassicTheFifthDisciplineandlaterbooksthatpopularizedsystemsthinkinganditsconnectionwiththeotherlearningdisciplines.RobertFritzwasalsoacofounderofInnovationAssociatesandamasterofthecreativeprocess,whichimbuesallofthisworkwithprinciplesandtoolsforenrichingthelivesofindividuals,organizations,andthepeopletheyserve.

IalsowanttothanktwoothercolleaguesatInnovationAssociatesfortheircontributions.JenniferKemeny,abrilliantsystemsthinker,helpedmedeveloptheoriginalLeadingSystemicChangeworkshopalongwithMichaelGoodman.SherryImmediatoopenedthedoorsforapplyingsystemsthinkingtotheissuesofpublicandenvironmentalpublichealth.

Othercolleagueshavealsoplayedimportantrolesinthedevelopmentofthisbook.JoeLaurandSaraSchleyinvitedmetocollaboratewiththemonTheAfterPrisonInitiative,CurtisOgdeninvitedmetopartnerwithhimonRightfromtheStart,andDanielKimintroducedMichaelGoodmanandmetotheW.K.KelloggFoundation,whichsponsoredmanyofthefirstprojectstocombinethinkingandconveningsystemically.PeterWoodrowinvitedmetopartnerwithhiminBurundiandhascontinuedtoworkwithDianaChigasandRobRiciglianotoapplysystemsthinkingtopeacebuilding.BatyaKallusinvitedmetodesignandleadthefirstLeveragingGrantMakingworkshop.AndrewJones,DonSeville,andGeorgieBishopofferedmeadditionalcasematerial.LindaBoothSweeneyprovidedmewithlotsofencouragementandinsightintowhatothercolleaguesaredoingto“givesystemdynamicswings.”

ThankyouaswelltoCarolGorelickforhervaluablecommentsthroughout,andtoMichelleHeritage,R.ScottSpann,andLisaSpinaliforreviewingandenhancingpartsofthemanuscript.

Noneofthisworkhappenswithoutclientswillingtoengageinit.Theyandthepeopletheyservearetheultimatereasonthisbookwaswritten.Thankstothoseofyouwhohavebeensoopentoapplyingsystemsthinkingtoyourworkinmakingabetterworld,including:JoeBartmann,JenniferBentley,Jacqueline

Page 241: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Claunch,BethDavis,MarkDraper,NancyFreesFountain,JasonGlass,TimJenkins,KarenKoenemann,CynthiaLamberth,NancyLeonard,JenniferLudwig,AnnMansfield,AnneMiskey,DavidNee,JohnSarisky,BretSmith,DavidTilly,SusanTucker,JoanWallaceBenjamin,JonWalz,andTraciWodlinger.

IalsowanttoacknowledgethemanypeoplewhohaveembracedandcontributedtothisworkthroughtheirparticipationinworkshopsonLeadingSystemicChangeandLeveragingGrantMakinginmanydifferentforums.Ihavelearnedfromallofyourinsightsandchallengingquestions.

SpecialthankstoTeriBehrens,editor-in-chiefofTheFoundationReview,forpublishinganearlyversionoftheseideasandpromotingtheirvalueinphilanthropy.IalsothankJoniPraded,myeditoratChelseaGreen,forinvitingmetowritethisbookandprovidingenormouslyhelpfulfeedbackalongtheway.ThankyouaswelltoNancyDaughertyforherpatienceandpersistenceindevelopingthefiguresthatareworthathousandwords.

Finally,noneofthiswouldhavebeenwrittenwithoutthelovingsupportofmywife,MarilynPaul,anaccomplishedauthorinherownrightandstaunchbelieverinthiswork.ShehasbeenmyclosestsoundingboardovertheyearsinhelpingmethinkthroughandexplainwhatIdo,andsheofferedmanyvaluableideasonthemanuscript.Iamalsosogratefultomyson,JonathanStroh,whoseenthusiasmforlifeinspiresmeeveryday.

Oakland,CAJune2015

Page 242: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—APPENDIXA—

Page 243: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

ViciousCyclesofClimateChange

IncreasinggreenhousegasesorGHGssuchasCO2intheearth’satmospherecreatesseveralviciouscyclesinnaturethatarelikelytofurtherincreaseglobaltemperatures.ThesecyclesaremappedoutinfigureA.1,offeredhereasanexampleofhowtoreadadiagramshowingseveralviciouscyclesatwork.

FIGUREA.1VICIOUSCYCLESOFCLIMATECHANGE.GrowingCO2concentrationsintheatmospherehavecreatedviciouscyclesinnaturethatarelikelytoincreaseglobaltemperature

Page 244: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

overtime.AdaptedfromAndrewJones,ClimateInteractive,2015

You’llseethatasGHGsandtemperaturesincrease,bothsoilandtheoceansreleasemoreCO2,astheFasterReleasereinforcingloop(R)infigureA.1depicts.Forestcoverdeclines,whichreducestheamountofCO2heldorsequesteredbytrees,therebyincreasingthelevelofCO2releasedintotheatmosphere(R,Forests).

Moreoverastemperaturesincrease,polaricemelts,whichhasothernegativeandamplifyingimpacts.Wheniceatthepolesdecreases,theearthbecomeslessreflectiveofthesun’srays,whichincreasestheamountofsolarheatabsorbed,therebyincreasingtemperatures(R,Albedo).Icemeltingalsoexposespermafrost,whichreleasesmethane,anothergreenhousegasthatisevenmoretoxicthanCO2(R,Methane).Inaddition,asiceatthepolesdecreases,theaveragealtitudeoftheicedecreases,whichreducesicetemperatureandincreasesicemeltevenfaster(R,IceAltitude).Finally,apotentiallylessinfluentialimpactofpolaricemeltingisbasallubrication,theflowofwaterproducedbymeltingicethatincreasesthespeedatwhichicemeltsfurther(R,BasalLubrication).

Page 245: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—APPENDIXB—

Page 246: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

SampleInterviewQuestionsfor

SpecificProjects

Whenlaunchingasystems-thinkingprojectthatinvolvesmultiplestakeholders,itisbesttoconductinterviewswithprojectparticipants.You’llusetheinformationyoucollecttobuildaninitialsystemsmapfordiscussionandinputfromtheteam.Belowarethequestionsusedinsomeofthecasesdiscussedthroughoutthisbook.

B.1.QUESTIONSFORTHEAFTERPRISONINITIATIVE

1.Wherewithintheoverallfielddoyoufocusyourwork?Whydoyoufocushere?

2.Whatotherchangeeffortsareyouawareofinthefield?Howdotheseothereffortshelp/hinderyourown?Howdoyoureffortshelp—andpotentiallyhinder—theworkofothers?

3.Therearemultiplebarrierstoreentrycitedintheliterature.Inyourmind,whatarethethreemostimportant?Whydothesebarriersexist?

4.Howdoyouengageotherstakeholders,particularlythoseinrelatedfieldsandwithaccesstoadditionalresources,inaddressingtheseissues?

5.Towhatextentdoyouapproachreentryasalargerissuearoundstructuralracism?Forexample,doyouthinkintermsofenfranchisementaswellasreentryforformerprisoners,and/ortheintegrationofentiremarginalizedcommunitiesintosociety?Whatendresultsareyouaimingfor?Ifyouthinkintheselargerterms,howexplicitareyouindoingso?

B.2.QUESTIONSFORDEVELOPINGTEN-YEARPLANTOENDHOMELESSNESS

Page 247: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

1.Whatisthepatternofhomelessnessyou’veseeninCalhounCountyoverthepasttentotwentyyears?

2.Whatdoyoubelievearetheunderlyingcausesoftheproblem?3.Whataretheconsequencesofhomelessness?Howseriousistheproblem?Whatwouldhappenovertimeifnothingelseweredonetoaddressit?

4.Whathasyourorganizationdonetoaddresstheproblem?Whathasbeensuccessful?Whathaveyoutriedthathasnotbeenassuccessfulasyouhoped?Whydoyouthinktheseshortfallsoccurred?

5.Whatwouldyoudodifferently?Why?Whathaspreventedyoufromdoingthis?

6.Noonewantshomelessnesstocontinue,yetitdoes.Inyouropinion,whydoesitpersist?

7.Inadditiontowhatyourorganizationcando,whatelseneedstobedonetoendhomelessnessinthecounty?

8.Whoelseatthestateandlocallevelsneedstobeinvolvedtocontributetotheendofhomelessness?Whatdotheyneedtocontribute—politicalleadership,funding,technicalresources?

B.3.QUESTIONSFORIMPROVINGRURALHOUSING

1.Whatisworkingnowinyourcommunitytodevelopnewhousing?2.Whatmightyoudotocultivateadditionaldevelopment?3.Whatlimitstoappropriate,affordablehousingdevelopmenthaveyouencountered?

4.Howareyoudealingwiththeselimitsnow?Howmightyoudealwiththem?

5.Whatlimitsmightyouencountergoingforward?6.Certainimprovementsinhousingandotheraspectsofcommunitydevelopmentmighttakelongertorealizethanothers.Wherearethelongestdelaysinyourcommunity?Howcanyouhelppeopleshortenthosedelaysorincreasetheirpatienceinstayingthecourse?

7.Theretendstobeanunderstandablefocusonsingle-familyunattachedhomes.Whatplace,ifany,doyouseeformultifamilyhousingor

Page 248: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

contiguoussingle-familyhousing(suchastownhouses)?

B.4.QUESTIONSFORCOLLABORATINGFORIOWA’SKIDSQuestionstoClarifyProspectsforPartnership

1.HowdoyouwanttodefineIDEsuccess?Whatshouldbeitsuniquecontributions?

2.HowdoyouwanttodefineAEASystemsuccess?Whatshouldbeitsuniquecontributions?

3.HowwillIDE’ssuccesscontributetoAEASystemsuccess?4.HowwillAEASystemsuccesscontributetoIDEsuccess?

QuestionstoClarifyAccidentalAdversariesRelationship

1.WhenIDEhasproblemsachievingresults,whatdoesitdotogetbackontrack?

2.HowdotheseactionsunwittinglyundermineAEASystemsuccess?3.WhentheAEASystemhasproblemsachievingresults,whatdoesitdotogetbackontrack?

4.HowdotheseactionsunwittinglyundermineIDEsuccess?

Page 249: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—APPENDIXC—

Page 250: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Multiple-ArchetypeDiagrams

Thesediagramsshowhowmultiplearchetypescanilluminateasinglecomplexproblem.Inthefirstdiagram,C.1,theShiftingtheBurdendynamicaddstoandcomplementstheFixesThatBackfiredynamicofmassincarcerationinfigures7.1and7.2.FiguresC.2throughC.4showdifferentaspectsofthedeeplyrootedproblemofidentity-basedconflicts,wherebothpartiestoaconflictbelievethattheirveryrightstoexistarethreatened.C.2describestheShiftingtheBurdenarchetypeunderlyingtheseconflicts.C.3illuminatesthechallengeofConflictingGoals.Finally,C.4showshowtheseconflictsembedthemselvesevenfurtherthroughthedynamicofEscalation.Forreadersinterestedinlearningmoreaboutthesystemdynamicsofidentity-basedconflictsandrecommendedinterventionstoresolvethem,gotothereferencenotedonthesediagrams.

Page 251: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGUREC.1ANADDICTIONTOPRISON.Dependingonmassincarcerationtoreducepeople’sfearof“theother”underminessociety’sabilitytoimplementthemorefundamentalsolutionsofcommunitydevelopmentandresettlement.Thehighcostsofprisonreducethemoneyavailabletospendontheseresponses(R8).Disadvantagesexperiencedbyformerlyincarceratedpeopleoftenleadtorepeatoffenses,whichdestabilizethecommunityevenfurther(R9).Evenifthesepeopledonotcommitanothercrime,itisdifficultforthemtobecomenetcontributorstothecommunity’sresources(R10).ModifiedfromadiagramdevelopedbySeedSystemsforOpenSocietyInstitute

Page 252: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGUREC.2IDENTITY-BASEDCONFLICTS:SHIFTINGTHEBURDEN.Inordertodemonstratetheirrespectiverightstoexist,peopleonbothsidesofanidentity-basedconflicttendtobecomeaddictedtotryingtocontrolorunderminepeopleontheothersideofthisconflict.Thestrongerparty(A)—economicallyandmilitarily—seekstoexertcontrolwhiletheweakerside(B)workstounderminethestrongerone.DavidPeterStroh,“TheSystemDynamicsofIdentity-BasedConflict,”inD.Korppen,N.Ropers,andH.J.Giessmann(editors),TheNon-LinearityofPeaceProcesses(BarbaraBudrichPublishers,2011)

Page 253: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGUREC.3IDENTITY-BASEDCONFLICTS:CONFLICTINGGOALS.Eachsidealsohassubgroupsthatseektoresolvetheconflictthroughpeacefulcoexistenceratherthancompletevictory.However,thesubgroupsinfavorofcompletevictorytendtodominateovertime,sincetheirmoreaggressivetacticsgenerateemotionsoffearandangerthataremoreviscerallycompellingthanthoseofpeace.Stroh,“TheSystemDynamicsofIdentity-BasedConflict

Page 254: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

FIGUREC.4IDENTITY-BASEDCONFLICTS:ESCALATION.Theseproblemsarecompoundedbecausebothsidesbecomecaughtinanendlessraceforbothdominationandvictimizationsinceoppressingfromthevictimpositionisoftenviewedasamorelegitimatestance.Stroh,“TheSystemDynamicsofIdentity-BasedConflict”

Page 255: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

—APPENDIXD—

Page 256: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

AdditionalResources

Thefollowingcompilationofbooksandwebsitessummarizes:diverseapproachestothinkingandactingsystemically;applicationsofsystemsthinkingtosuchchallengesasurbanrenewal,peacebuilding,sustainabledevelopment,K–12education,healthcare,andendinghomelessness;andnetworksofpeopleandarchivesofmaterialsdedicatedtosupportingtheuseofsystemsthinkingnationallyandaroundtheworld.

BOOKS

LindaBoothSweeney:WhenaButterflySneezes,PegasusCommunications,2001.Aguideforhelpingkids(ofallages)exploreinterconnectionsinourworldthroughfavoritestories.TheSystemsThinkingPlaybook,co-authoredwithDennisMeadows,ChelseaGreen,2010.Ahandbookofexperientialexercisesthatstretchandbuildlearningandsystemsthinkingcapabilities.

PeterChecklandandJimScholes,SoftSystemsMethodologyinAction,Wiley,1999.Offersanalternativesystemsthinkingmethodologythatisnotbasedonthevisuallanguageofcausalloopdiagramming.

GlendaEoyangandRoyceHalladay,AdaptiveAction:LeveragingUncertaintyinYourOrganization,StanfordUniversityPress,2013.Offersanothersystems

Page 257: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

thinkingmethodologythatisnotbasedonthevisuallanguageofcausalloopdiagramming.

JayForrester,UrbanDynamics,PegasusCommunications,1969.Aclassicinthefieldofsystemdynamicsthatexplainstheshortcomingsofurbanrenewalstrategiesemployedinthe1960’sUnitedStatesWaronPoverty.

D.Korppen,N.Ropers,H.J.Giessmann(eds.),TheNon-LinearityofPeaceProcesses,BarbaraBudrichPublishers:FarmingtonHills,MI,2011.Acollectionofpapersthatapplydifferentmethodsofthinkingsystemicallytothechallengeofpeacebuilding.

DonellaMeadows:LimitstoGrowth,UniverseBooks,1972.AsystemdynamicsmodeldevelopedfortheClubofRomedescribesthelikelyenvironmentalimpactsofunbridledpopulationandeconomicgrowth.LimitstoGrowth:The30-YearUpdate,co-authoredwithJørgenRandersandDennisMeadows,ChelseaGreen,2004.This30-yearfollow-upreportbuildsonmanyofthepredictionsmadeintheoriginalreportandrecommendshowtoavoidenvironmentalcollapse.ThinkinginSystems,ChelseaGreen,2008.Anoutstandingintroductiontosystemsthinkingbyapioneeringleaderinthefield.

C.OttoScharmer,TheoryU:LeadingFromtheFutureasItEmerges,Berrett-Koehler,2009.Describesacomprehensiveframeworkformanagingcomplexdeepchangethatiscomplementarytotheoneintroducedinthisbook.

PeterSenge,etal.:TheFifthDiscipline,Doubleday,1990,secondeditionpublishedin2006.Thepioneeringframeworkunderlyingmanyoftheideasinthisbook.Systemsthinkingis“thefifthdiscipline.”TheFifthDisciplineFieldbook,co-authoredwithArtKleiner,CharlotteRoberts,RichardRoss,andBryanSmith,Doubleday,1994.GroundstheprinciplesofTheFifthDisciplineinhighlyaccessiblestrategiesandtoolsthatenablereaderstoapplyeachoftheorganizationallearningdisciplines.TheNecessaryRevolution,co-authoredwithBryanSmith,NinaKruschwitz,JoeLaur,andSaraSchley,BroadwayBooks,2008.Appliesthefivedisciplinesoforganizationallearningtobuildingasustainableworld.

Page 258: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

SchoolsThatLearn(UpdatedandRevised),co-authoredwithNeldaCambron-McCabe,TimothyLucas,BryanSmith,JanisDutton,andArtKleiner,CrownBusiness,2012.AppliesthefivedisciplinesoforganizationallearningtomeetingthechallengeofK–12education.

WEBSITES

AppliedSystemsThinking,www.appliedsystemsthinking.com.AninformationalwebsiteonappliedsystemsthinkingdevelopedbyMichaelGoodmanandDavidPeterStroh.

BridgewayPartners,www.bridgewaypartners.com.MaterialsandservicesofferedbyDavidPeterStrohandMarilynPaultohelppeoplereframeandresolveintractableproblems—includingarangeofsocialissuesandthechallengesofindividualandorganizationaloverload.

ClimateInteractive,www.climateinteractive.org.Providescomputersimulationsandotherlearningmaterialscoveringsuchtopicsasclimatechange,cleanenergy,disasterriskreduction,andresilience.

CreativeLearningExchange,www.clexchange.org.NonprofitfoundedbyJayForrestertointroducesystemdynamicsintotheK–12schoolcurriculum.

FundersTogethertoEndHomelessness,www.funderstogether.org.Anationalnetworkoffunderscommittedtoendingandpreventinghomelessnessusingasystemsapproach.

InternationalSystemDynamicsSociety,www.systemdynamics.org.Aninternational,nonprofitorganizationdevotedtoencouragingthedevelopmentanduseofSystemDynamicsandsystemsthinking.

LeverageNetworks,www.leveragenetworks.com.Connectsknowledge,events,andpeopleengagedinsystemsthinking—includingtheextensivearchivesofPegasusCommunications.

ReThinkHealth,www.rethinkhealth.org.Developsandcompilespracticalinformation,tools,andapproachestosupportleaderscommittedtoimprovingregionalhealthcaredelivery—includingthroughitsnationallyrecognizedReThinkHealthDynamicsModel.

Page 259: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

SystemsThinkingWorld,www.systemswiki.org.Anonlinecommunitydedicatedtocreatingcontent,fosteringinteractions,andapplyingsystemsthinkingtofurtheranunderstandingofasystemicperspectiveandenablethinkingandactingsystemically.Alsoprovidesacomprehensiveonlinelearningenvironmentathttps://kumu.io/stw/systems-kele.

Page 260: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

NOTES

INTRODUCTION1.See,forexample,PeterSenge,TheFifthDiscipline(updatedandrevised;Doubleday,2010)and

PeterSengeetal.,TheFifthDisciplineFieldbook(Doubleday,1994).2.See,forexample,PeterChecklandandJimScholes,SoftSystemsMethodologyinAction(Wiley,

1999).3.HarvardBusinessReviewstaff,“YouCan’tBeaWimp:MaketheToughCalls”(interviewwithRam

Charan),HarvardBusinessReview,November2013.4.See,forexample,OttoScharmer,TheoryU:LeadingfromtheFutureasItEmerges(Berrett-

Koehler,2009);JohnKaniaandMarkKramer,“CollectiveImpact,”StanfordSocialInnovationReview,Winter2011;andZaidHassan,TheSocialLabsRevolution(Berrett-Koehler,2014).

5.Thisinsighthasbeenattributedtomanysystemsthinkers,includingDr.PaulBatalden,professoremeritusattheGeiselSchoolofMedicineatDartmouthCollege;DonBerwick,pastpresidentandCEOoftheInstituteforHealthcareImprovementandformeradministratoroftheUSCentersforMedicareandMedicaidServices;andEdwardDeming,founderofthequalitymovement.

Page 261: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CHAPTER11.MatthewB.Durose,AlexiaD.Cooper,andHowardN.Snyder,“RecidivismofPrisonersReleasedin

30Statesin2005:Patternsfrom2005to2010,”USDepartmentofJustice,OfficeofJusticePrograms,BureauofJusticeStatistics,April2014.

2.LewisThomas,TheMedusaandtheSnail(Viking,1979).3.DonellaMeadows,ThinkinginSystems(ChelseaGreen,2008).4.Forabroaderunderstandingofthedifferentschoolsofsystemsthinkingandwhentoapplywhich

methodology,readMichaelC.Jackson,SystemsThinking:CreativeHolismforManagers,Wiley&Sons,2003.

5.Senge,TheFifthDiscipline,andSengeetal.,TheFifthDisciplineFieldbook.CausalloopdiagramswereoriginallydocumentedbymycolleagueMichaelGoodmaninhispioneeringtextbookStudyNotesinSystemDynamics(1974,reprintedbyPegasusCommunicationsin1989).

Page 262: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CHAPTER21.CarolDweck,Mindset:TheNewPsychologyofSuccess(RandomHouse,2006).2.Senge,TheFifthDiscipline,p.231.3.Formoreinformation,youcanreadDavidPeterStroh,“TheSystemDynamicsofIdentity-Based

Conflicts,”inD.Korppen,N.Ropers,andH.J.Giessmann(editors),TheNon-LinearityofPeaceProcesses(BarbaraBudrichPublishers,2011).

4.JohnKaniaandMarkKramer,“CollectiveImpact,”StanfordSocialInnovationReview,Winter2011.5.PaulSchmitz,“TheRealChallengeforCollectiveImpact,”HuffingtonPost,September27,2012.

Page 263: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CHAPTER31.OSIhassincechangeditsnametoOpenSocietyFoundations.2.JonathanSimon,“GoverningThroughCrime:HowtheWaronCrimeTransformedAmerican

DemocracyandCreatedaCultureofFear,”StudiesinCrimeandPublicPolicy,2009.3.BuckminsterFullerandothershaveobservedthattheunderlyingproblemfacedbytheworldisnot

limitedresourcesbuttheineffectivedistributionofsufficientresources.4.MarvinWeisbord,ProductiveWorkplaces:Dignity,Meaning,andCommunityinthe21stCentury

(Jossey-Bass,1991).5.AlfredBlumsteinandJoelWallman,TheCrimeCropinAmerica(CambridgeUniversityPress,

2005).6.StevenD.Levitt,“UnderstandingWhyCrimeFellinthe1990s:FourFactorsThatExplainthe

DeclineandSixThatDoNot,”JournalofEconomicPerspectives18,no.1(Winter2004).7.Wikipedia,http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abracadabra.8.Becausenotallnounsarevariables,agoodwaytoconfirmifafactorvariesistoputthewordslevelofinfrontofit:LevelofRepeatOffenses.Forexample,theNumberofPeopleIncarceratedisavariablebecauseitcanincreaseordecreaseovertime.However,Strategyisnotavariable,althoughRelativeEmphasisonPunishmentVersusReformisavariablebecausethatemphasiscanchangeovertime.

9.PeterWoodrow,“ConflictAnalysisofBurundi”(CDACollaborativeLearningProjects,2004).10.Itisalsopossibletosubstitutecoloredlinks—say,greenfor“same”andredfor“opposite”—on

finaldiagrams.

Page 264: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CHAPTER41.Meadows,ThinkinginSystems.2.JimCollins,GoodtoGreat(HarperCollins,2001)andGoodtoGreatandtheSocialSectors

(monograph;HarperCollins,2005).3.DavidPeterStroh,“ASystemsViewoftheEconomicCrisis,”TheSystemsThinker20,(February

2009).4.P.Ball,CriticalMass:HowOneThingLeadstoAnother(Farrar,StrausandGiroux,2006);Malcolm

Gladwell,TheTippingPoint(LittleBrown,2000).5.D.H.Meadowsetal.,TheLimitstoGrowth(UniverseBooks,1972).6.G.KellingandJ.Q.Wilson,“BrokenWindows,”TheAtlantic249,no.3(March1982).7.C.Johnson,“StudyBacksTheoryThatLinksConditions,Crime,”BostonGlobe,February8,2009.8.J.A.Fox,“GangingUp,”BostonGlobe,December1,2003.9.E.Moscowitz,“JustSay‘IntheKnow,’”BostonGlobe,December22,2008.10.InstituteonEducationandtheEconomy,“UsingWhatWeHavetoGettheSchoolsWeNeed:A

ProductivityFocusforAmericanEducation,”IEEDocumentNo.Bk-5(TeachersCollege,ColumbiaUniversity,October1995).IwishtothankmycolleaguesJenniferKemenyandSherryImmediato,whoworkedonthiscaseandbroughtittomyattention.

11.ThepioneeringworkoncodifyingsystemarchetypesandmakingthemaccessiblewasdonebyMichaelGoodman,JenniferKemeny,andCharlieKieferatInnovationAssociates.MostofthesearesummarizedinWilliamBraun,TheSystemArchetypes,2002,downloadablefromhttp://www.albany.edu/faculty/gpr/PAD724/724WebArticles/sys_archetypes.pdf.

12.S.Friedman,“WhenHeroinSupplyCut,CrimeRises,SaysReport,”BostonGlobe,April22,1976.13.LindaPolman,TheCrisisCaravantranslatedbyLizWaters(MetropolitanBooks,2010).14.WilliamEasterly,TheTyrannyofExperts(BasicBooks,2014).15.IntheirrecentbookAPathAppears(Knopf,2014)award-winningjournalistNicolasKristofandhis

wife,SherylWuDunn,offermanyexcellentexamplesofbottom-updevelopment.16.JohnR.Ehrenfeld,“TheRootsofSustainability,”SloanManagementReview,46,no.2(Winter

2005).17.PeterBuffett,“TheCharitable-IndustrialComplex,”NewYorkTimes,July27,2013.18.TheDanceofChange,abookbyPeterSengeetal.(DoubledayCurrency,1999),usestheLimitsto

Growtharchetypetoexplaintheobstaclestoorganizationalchangeandwhatcanbedonetoovercomethem.

19.Meadowsetal.,LimitstoGrowth.20.ThomasPiketty,Capitalinthe21stCentury,translatedbyArthurGoldhammer(Presidentand

FellowsofHarvardCollege,2014).21.PeterStroh,“TheRichGetRicher,andthePoor...”,TheSystemsThinker,March1992.22.KeithLawrenceandTerryKeleher,StructuralRacism(RaceandPublicPolicyConference,2004).23.NicholasKristofandSherylWuDunn,“TheWaytoBeatPoverty,”NewYorkTimes,September14,

2014.24.Adaptedfromcopyrightedworkon“TheLeadershipDilemmainaDemocraticSociety,”developed

byandreproducedwithpermissionofthePublicSectorConsortium,2003.Learnmoreathttp://www.public-sector.org/file/The-Leadership-Dilemma-in-Democratic-Society.pdf.

Page 265: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

25.PeterStroh,“ConflictingGoals:StructuralTensionatItsWorst,”TheSystemsThinker,September2000.

26.DavidPeterStroh,“ASystemicViewoftheIsraeli–PalestinianConflict,”TheSystemsThinker,June–July2002.

27.DavidPeterStroh,“TheSystemDynamicsofIdentity-BasedConflict,”inKorppen,Ropers,andGiessmann(editors),TheNon-LinearityofPeaceProcesses.

28.TerrenceReal,TheNewRulesofMarriage(BallantineBooks,2007).29.ElinorOstrom,GoverningtheCommons:TheEvolutionofInstitutionsforCollectiveAction

(CambridgeUniversityPress,1990).30.NationalGeographic,“TheCarbonBathtub,”December2009.31.Levitt,“UnderstandingWhyCrimeFellinthe1990s.”

Page 266: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CHAPTER51.DavidPeterStrohandMichaelGoodman,“ASystemicApproachtoEndingHomelessness,”Applied

SystemsThinkingJournal,October2007.Downloadfrom:http://www.appliedsystemsthinking.com/supporting_documents/TopicalHomelessness.pdf.

2.NumbersderivedfromCalhounCounty2013–2014ReportCard,TheCoordinatingCouncil,http://www.tcccalhoun.org/CRC/2013-14%20TCC%20Report%20Card.pdf.

3.MarvinWeisbordandSandraJanoff,FutureSearch,3rdedition,Berrett-Koehler,2011;HarrisonOwen,OpenSpaceTechnology,3rdedition,Berrett-Koehler,2008;JuanitaBrown,TheWorldCafé,Berrett-Koehler,2005.

4.RamNidumoluetal.,“TheCollaborationImperative,”HarvardBusinessReview,April2014;Scharmer,TheoryU;ZaidHassan,TheSocialLabsRevolution,ReosPublications,2014.

5.Senge,TheFifthDiscipline,pp.150–55.6.Scharmer,TheoryU,p.134.

Page 267: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CHAPTER61.KathleenZurcherandTimothyGrieves,“CollaboratingforIowa’sKids,”IowaDepartmentof

EducationandIowaAreaEducationAgencies,August17,2012.2.ShirleyLeung,“PineSt.Inn’sBoldMovetoEndChronicHomelessness,”BostonGlobe,July16,

2014.3.Balancingadvocacyandinquiry—alongwithmanyothertoolstofacilitateteamlearning—is

describedinPeterSengeetal.,TheFifthDisciplineFieldbook.4.AdaptedfromasequencedevelopedbyCliffBarry,ShadowWorkSeminars.5.Scharmer,TheoryU.6.Real,TheNewRulesofMarriage.

Page 268: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CHAPTER71.Durose,Cooper,andSnyder,“RecidivismofPrisonersReleasedin30Statesin2005.”2.CharlesM.Blow,“CrimeandPunishment,”NewYorkTimes,December1,2014.3.IlyaSomin,“ConservativesRethinkingMassImprisonmentandtheWaronDrugs,”WashingtonPost,January26,2014.Oneinterestingexampleofthisshiftistherecentformationofahighlyunlikelycoalitiontofixthecriminaljusticesystemthatincludesorganizationsfromboththepoliticalrightandleft;tolearnmoreaboutthisnewCoalitionforPublicSafety,gotowww.coalitionforpublicsafety.org.

4.KristofandWuDunn,APathAppears.5.Ibid.6.Formoreonsystemdynamicsmodelingrelatedtopublicpolicy,youcanread“HowSmallSystem

DynamicsModelsCanHelpthePublicPolicyProcess”byNavidGhaffarzadegan,JohnLyneis,andGeorgeP.Richardson,awhitepaperpublishedbytheRockefellerCollegeofPublicAffairsandPolicy,UniversityofAlbany,SUNY,availableathttp://www.albany.edu/~gpr/SmallModels.pdf.

Page 269: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CHAPTER81.AddingmentalmodelstocausalloopdiagramswasatechniquedevelopedbyInnovationAssociates

OrganizationalLearning.

Page 270: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CHAPTER91.RobertKeganandLisaLaskowLahey,HowWeTalkCanChangetheWayWeWork(Jossey-Bass,

2001).2.Thisinsighthasbeenattributedtomanysystemsthinkers,includingDr.PaulBatalden,professor

emeritusattheGeiselSchoolofMedicineatDartmouthCollege;DonBerwick,pastpresidentandCEOoftheInstituteforHealthcareImprovementandtheformeradministratoroftheUSCentersforMedicareandMedicaidServices;andEdwardDeming,founderofthequalitymovement.

3.PeterStrohandWynneMiller,“LearningtoThriveonParadox,”TrainingandDevelopment,September2014.

4.Leung,PineSt.Inn’sBoldMovetoEndChronicHomelessness.5.Scharmer,TheoryU.6.EverettM.Rogers,DiffusionofInnovations,5thedition(FreePress,2003).

Page 271: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CHAPTER101.DavidPeterStrohandMarilynPaul,“IsMovingTooFastSlowingYouDown?HowtoPrevent

OverloadfromUnderminingYourOrganization’sPerformance,”Reflections:TheSocietyforOrganizationalLearningJournal13,no.1(Summer2013).

2.Meadows,ThinkinginSystems.3.BarbaraTuchman,TheMarchofFolly(RandomHouse,1984).4.ClaudiaDreifus,“AChroniclerofWarningsDenied,”NewYorkTimes,October28,2014.5.Leung,PineSt.Inn’sBoldMovetoEndChronicHomelessness.6.PathwaystoHousingwebsiteathttps://pathwaystohousing.org/housing-first-model.7.DavidPeterStroh,ASystemsApproachtoImprovingEnvironmentalPublicHealth,2013.

UnpublishedreportpreparedfortheCentersforDiseaseControl;copiesavailablefromtheauthor.8.DavidCooperriderandDianaWhitney,AppreciativeInquiry:APositiveRevolutioninChange

(Berrett-Koehler,2005);RichardPascale,JerrySternin,andMoniqueSternin,ThePowerofPositiveDeviance(HarvardBusinessPress,2010).

9.DavidPeterStrohandMarilynPaul,“ManagingYourTimeasaLeader,”Reflections:TheSocietyforOrganizationalLearningJournal,Winter2006.

10.Leung,PineSt.Inn’sBoldMovetoEndChronicHomelessness.11.CasestudydevelopedbyDavidPeterStrohandJohnMcGahforFundersTogethertoEnd

Homelessness,anationalassociationoffunderscommittedtoendinghomelessness.ContactFundersTogetheratwww.funderstogether.orgforcopies.MichelleHeritage,executivedirectorofCSB,wasespeciallyhelpfulinprovidinginformationabouttheorganization.

12.KaniaandKramer,“CollectiveImpact.”13.ThetoolsasdefinedhereweredevelopedbyInnovationAssociates,thoughotherversionsofboth

exist.14.Meadows,ThinkinginSystems,p.164.15.ReflectingonPeacePracticeProgram,KeyPrinciplesinEffectivePeacebuilding(CDA

CollaborativeLearningProjects,2014).16.Tolearnmore,contactPamelaWilhelmsattheWilhelmsConsultingGroup,

http://wcgsite.weebly.com/about.html.17.GrantmakersforEffectiveOrganizations,2013PathwaystoGrowImpact:Philanthropy’sRoleintheJourney(GEOResourceLibrary,January29,2013).

18.ReflectingonPeacePracticeProgram,LessonsfromProgramEffectiveness.19.KristofandWuDunn,APathAppears.

Page 272: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CHAPTER111.MichaelGoodmanandArtKleiner,“TheArchetypeFamilyTree,”inPeterSengeetal.,TheFifthDisciplineFieldbook.

2.AnotherexampleofaplanningapproachforsocialinnovationisdesignthinkingassummarizedbyTimBrownandJocelynWatt,“DesignThinkingforSocialInnovation,”StanfordSocialInnovationReview,Winter2010.

3.See,forexample,CooperriderandWhitney,AppreciativeInquiry;andPascale,Sternin,andSternin,ThePowerofPositiveDeviance.

4.Thereaderisencouragedtoreviewchapter9insituationswhereitisdifficulttodevelopalignmentaroundavisionforthesystem.

5.Guidelinesforscalinguparesummarizedinchapter10andcanalsobefoundatGrantmakersforEffectiveOrganizations,2013PathwaystoGrowImpact:Philanthropy’sRoleintheJourney(GEOResourceLibrary,January29,2013).

6.FinancialestimatebasedonresearchbytheMassachusettsHousingandShelterAlliance.7.DavidPeterStrohandKathleenZurcher,“LeveragingGrantmaking—Part2:AligningProgrammatic

ApproacheswithComplexSystemDynamics,”TheFoundationReview,Winter2010.8.DanielH.Kim,OrganizingforLearning(PegasusCommunications,2001).9.DavidPeterStroh,“WhattoDoWhenYouHaveTooManyGoals,”blogpost,

http://www.bridgewaypartners.com/Blog/tabid/67/entryid/17/What-to-Do-When-You-Have-Too-Many-Goals.aspx.

10.Tolearnmoreaboutcomputersimulationsthataddressclimatechangeandsustainability,lookattheC-ROADSsimulationatwww.climateinteractive.organdtheThreshold21(T21)modelathttp://millenniuminstitute.net.Tolearnmoreaboutcomputersimulationsforhealthcaredelivery,readtheworkofGaryHirsch,beginningwiththefollowingarticle:BobbyMilstein,JackHomer,andGaryHirsch,“AnalyzingNationalHealthReformStrategieswithaDynamicSimulationModel,”AmericanJournalofPublicHealth,May2010.

Page 273: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CHAPTER121.StrohandPaul,“IsMovingTooFastSlowingYouDown?”2.Ibid.3.AmericanProductivityandQualityCenter,WhiteCollarProductivityImprovement(APQC,1986).4.TheWaterofAyole,videodirectedbySandraNichols,availableforviewingat

http://vimeo.com/6281949.Thistwenty-seven-minutevideocanalsoserveasanexcellentintroductiontothedifferencesbetweenconventionalandsystemsthinking.Thefirsthalf(through13:43)exemplifiestheformerandthesecondhalf,thelatter.

5.KristofandWuDunn,APathAppears,pp.167–231.

Page 274: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

CHAPTER131.Senge,TheFifthDiscipline,pp.374–75.2.Meadows,ThinkinginSystems,p.167.3.MarilynPaul,“MovingfromBlametoAccountability,”TheSystemsThinker8,no.1(1997).4.DavidPeterStroh,“TheSystemsOrientation:FromCuriositytoCourage,”TheSystemsThinker21,

no.8(2011).5.Tolearnmore,gotohttp://www.corechangecincy.com.6.Youcanlearnmoreabouttheonlineprogramandpreviewitat

http://www.iseesystems.com/store/Training/ApplySysThink.aspx.

Page 275: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

ABOUTTHEAUTHOR

Page 276: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

PhotobyKimKennedy

DavidPeterStrohisafoundingpartnerofBridgewayPartnersandafoundingdirectorofthewebsiteAppliedSystemsThinking.HealsocofoundedInnovationAssociates,theconsultingfirmwhosepioneeringworkintheareaoforganizationallearningformedthebasisforfellowcofounderPeterSenge’smanagementclassicTheFifthDiscipline.

Internationallyrecognizedforenablingpeopletoapplysystemsthinkingtoachievebreakthroughsaroundchronic,complexproblems,Davidhasworkedwithorganizationsandcommunitiesacrossthenonprofit,private,andpublicsectorstodevelopsocial-changeinitiativesthatimprovesystem-wideperformanceovertime.HisclientshaveincludedtheW.K.KelloggFoundation,theOpenSocietyFoundations,theAllianceforInternationalConflictPreventionandResolution,theNationalCenteronFamilyHomelessness,thenationalCentersforDiseaseControl,theWorldBank,andRoyalDutchShell,amongothers.

Davidalsoco-createdandleadstheLeadingSystemicChangeworkshop,isachartermemberoftheSocietyforOrganizationalLearning,andisafrequentspeakeronsystemsthinking,organizationallearning,andsocialchange.Hiswritinghasappearedinnumerousprofessionalbooksandjournals,includingTransformingWork,Reflections:TheSocietyforOrganizationalLearningJournal,TheSystemsThinker,andODPractitioner.DavidwasaNationalScienceFoundationfellowatMITwherehereceivedamaster’sincityplanning,andhegraduatedsummacumlaudewithundergraduatedegreesincivilengineeringandurbanstudiesfromtheUniversityofMichigan.

Formoreinformation,pleasevisitwww.bridgewaypartners.comandwww.appliedsystemsthinking.com.

Page 277: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

thepoliticsandpracticeofsustainablelivingCHELSEAGREENPUBLISHINGChelseaGreenPublishingseesbooksastoolsforeffectingculturalchangeandseekstoempowercitizenstoparticipateinreclaimingourglobalcommonsandbecomeitsimpassionedstewards.IfyouenjoyedSystemsThinkingforSocialChange,pleaseconsidertheseothergreatbooksrelatedtosystemsthinkingand

socialchange.

THINKINGINSYSTEMSAPrimer

DONELLAH.MEADOWS

9781603580557

Paperback•$19.95

Page 278: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

THESOCIALPROFITHANDBOOKTheEssentialGuidetoSettingGoals,AssessingOutcomes,and

AchievingSuccessforMission-DrivenOrganizationsDAVIDGRANT

9781603586047

Paperback•$20.00

WHATTHENMUSTWEDO?StraightTalkAbouttheNextAmericanRevolutionGARALPEROVITZ

9781603585040

Paperback•$17.95

Page 279: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

LIMITSTOGROWTHThe30-YearUpdate

DONELLAMEADOWS,JORGENRANDERS,andDENNISMEADOWS

9781931498586

Paperback•$22.50

SLOWDEMOCRACYRediscoveringCommunity,BringingDecisionMakingBackHome

SUSANCLARKandWODENTEACHOUT

9781603584135

Paperback•$19.95

Page 280: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Paperback•$19.95

THELOCALECONOMYSOLUTIONHowInnovative,Self-Financing“Pollinator”EnterprisesCanGrowJobs

andProsperityMICHAELH.SHUMAN

9781603585750

Paperback•$19.95

WHATWETHINKABOUTWHENWETRYNOTTOTHINKABOUTGLOBALWARMING

TowardaNewPsychologyofClimateActionPERESPENSTOKNES

9781603585835

Page 281: Systems thinking for social change : a practical guide to solving complex problems : avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results

Paperback•$24.95

2052AGlobalForecastfortheNextFortyYearsJORGENRANDERS

9781603584210

Paperback•$24.95

Formoreinformationortorequestacatalog,visitwww.chelseagreen.comorcalltoll-free(800)639-4099.


Recommended