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SystemsUnderstanding a system... ...so you can assess its future
Systems thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes. It is a framework
for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of change rather than static 'snapshots.'
Peter Senge © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent.
Primary Question of Systems Thinking
Why does a system act the way it does?
Understanding a system… …so you can assess its future?
2© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Guiding Principles
1. Everything is interconnected, at least indirectly
2. Interaction can create unexpected or counterintuitive results
3. Complexity makes system behavior difficult to predict
Understanding a system So you can assess its future…
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
System Structures
Control-Based Systems
Agent-Based Systems
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
A system’s behavior is a function of its STRUCTURE
Control-Based Systems
Agent-Based Systems
Closed
Command and Control
Rational, more predictable
Direct causal relations
Direct feedback
Explanation & prediction
Possibility of control
(Cybernetic) (Complex-Adaptive)
Open
Grassroots
Unpredictable
No direct causality
Reciprocal feedback
Explanation but not prediction
Surprising, creative, innovative
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Systems can exhibit properties of both
Control-based and Agent-based Structures
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Systems can evolve from one structure to the other…
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
1. “Tell the Story” of your systemHow do resources and value flow through the system?What forces are pressuring the system?Who has influence and what are their priorities?
2.Get the Level of Complexity RightYou want a framework for thinking, not a perfect, all-inclusive model
3.Think Visually and Seek Cross-ImpactsVisualize how the system works now and also how change
will impact how it will work in the future
Mapping The System
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Articulate System BoundariesEstimate Stakeholder Influence Illustrate a System DiagramOutline Forces of ChangeUtilize a Force Field Analysis
Mapping the System
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Articulate the System Boundaries
Organizational Boundary
Macroenvironment Boundary
Operating Environment Boundary
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Hi InterestLow Interest
Hi Influence
Low Influence
Estimate Stakeholder Influence
Stakeholder Primary Concerns / Objectives
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Hi InterestLow Interest
Hi Influence
Low Influence
Estimate Stakeholder Influence
Players
Coaches
Athl. Dir.Future
Recruits
Fans(Students)
Media(NBC)
NFL
NCAA
Sponsors
Opponents Fans (Donors)
BCS
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Illustrating a System Diagram
Players
CoachesOpponent
s
BCS Bowl
Games
Games
Teaching
ExpectationsPerformance
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Players
Coaches
Opponents
Univ of Notre Dame
Athletic
Dept.
NCAA
BCS Bowl
Games
Fans
StudentsAlums
SportsMedia
NFL
Conferences
System Diagram: Mapping Resource/Value Flows
High School Player
s
Recruiting
Recruiting
Stan
dard
s
Disciplin
e
Visibility Visi
bilit
y
Visib
ilit
yGlor
y
Glory
Hiring
Spiri
t/Hom
e Fiel
d
Adv$$$
$$$
Outrage
Glory
Stab
ilit
y
Games
Fan Base
$$$
Rules/Enforce
ment
Rule
s/Enf
Rule
s/
Enfo
rcem
ent
Rule
s/En
forc
emen
t
Sponsors $$$Endors
e
$$$
$$$C
are
er Pa
th ?
Care
er Pa
thCa
reer
Pa
th
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Outline Forces of Change
Drivers of Change• BCS/Conference
Realignments• Program Success &
Funding• Attention to Safety
• Players (Concussions)
• Staff• Media Visibility &
Scrutiny1. Social Media2. Emerging Sports
Media• Tech. Innovations
1. Equipment2. Training & Nutrition3. Stadiums
• S.B. Economic Development
Constraints of Change• Academic Standards• Weather / Location• Turbulence in H.S. Education
• Teaching Outcomes• Extracurr. Funding
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Utilize a Force Field Analysis
Force of Change
Trajectory
Impact onStatus Quo
1
2
3
Identify Prioritize
Continuous vs. Discont. Emerging vs. Mature Linear vs. Exponential Limit?
Assessing the Impact of Change© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Utilize a Force Field Analysis
Scope / BoundariesTime Horizon
Force of Change Trajectory Impact on Status Quo
Force Field Analysis
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
• Does the system for ND Football behave more like a Control-Based or Agent-Based system?
• Could this framework transition in the future?
Control vs. Agent Based System?...
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.