+ All Categories
Home > Documents > T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

Date post: 30-May-2018
Category:
Upload: api-15579005
View: 213 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend

of 22

Transcript
  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    1/22

    amzn

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    2/22

    T+1 T+0 TTM T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5

    FundamentalsOperating Margin 4.0% 4.4% 4.4% 3.6% 5.1% 6.4%

    Sales/Assets 3 3 3 3 2

    Debt/Equity 1 3 6 -8

    Cash Ratio 1 1 1 1 1 1

    ROIC 46.93% 55.6% 49.9% 59.0% 57.4% 43.8%

    ROIC - CoC 38.08%

    GrowthSales Growth 19.0% 18.4% 29.2% 38.5% 26.2% 22.7%

    Earnings Growth 25.7% 17.4% 33.0% 148.9% -42.3% -43.9%

    ValuationEV/IC / ROIC/CoC 2

    Earnings Estimate TrendPast Month Net Upgrades 19 21 40

    Total Estimates Current & Forward 58

    Net Upgrades as % of Total Estimates 69%

    Overall Grade

    Bear Market = minimum "B" for Fundamentals and Valuation Only

    Bull Market = minimum "B" for Overall Grade

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    3/22

    -Yr Average Grade

    C4.8%

    3

    1

    53.12%

    D29.1%

    23.9%

    D

    A

    C

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    4/22

    Annual Income Statement2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

    Period End Date ### ### ### ### ###

    Period Length 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 MonthsStmt Source 10-K 10-K 10-K 10-K 10-K

    Stmt Source Date ### ### ### ### ###

    Stmt Update Type Updated Updated Updated Updated Updated

    Revenue $19,166.0 $14,835.0 $10,711.0 $8,490.0 $6,921.1

    Total Revenue $19,166.0 $14,835.0 $10,711.0 $8,490.0 $6,921.1

    Cost of Revenue, Total $14,896.0 $11,482.0 $8,255.0 $6,451.0 $5,319.1

    Gross Profit $4,270.0 $3,353.0 $2,456.0 $2,039.0 $1,602.0

    Selling/General/Administrative Expenses, Total $2,419.0 $1,871.0 $1,395.0 $1,109.0 $918.3Research & Development $1,033.0 $818.0 $662.0 $451.0 $251.2

    Depreciation/Amortization $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Interest Expense (Income), Net Operating $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Unusual Expense (Income) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0Other Operating Expenses, Total -$24.0 $9.0 $10.0 $47.0 -$8.0

    Operating Income $842.0 $655.0 $389.0 $432.0 $440.4

    Interest Income (Expense), Net Non-Operating $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Other, Net $9.0 -$7.0 -$6.0 $2.0 -$4.7

    Income Before Tax $901.0 $660.0 $377.0 $428.0 $355.9

    Income Tax - Total $247.0 $184.0 $187.0 $95.0 -$232.6

    Income After Tax $654.0 $476.0 $190.0 $333.0 $588.5

    Minority Interest $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Equity In Affiliates -$9.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    U.S. GAAP Adjustment $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Net Income Before Extra. Items $645.0 $476.0 $190.0 $333.0 $588.5

    Total Extraordinary Items $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $26.0 $0.0

    Accounting Change $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $26.0 $0.0

    Discontinued Operations Error Error Error Error Error

    Net Income $645.0 $476.0 $190.0 $359.0 $588.5

    Total Adjustments to Net Income $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Preferred Dividends $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    General Partners' Distributions $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Basic Weighted Average Shares 423.00 413.00 416.00 412.00 405.93

    Basic EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items $1.52 $1.15 $0.46 $0.81 $1.45

    Basic EPS Including Extraordinary Items $1.52 $1.15 $0.46 $0.87 $1.45

    Diluted Weighted Average Shares 432.00 424.00 424.00 426.00 424.76

    Diluted EPS Excluding Extrordinary Items $1.49 $1.12 $0.45 $0.78 $1.39

    Diluted EPS Including Extraordinary Items $1.49 $1.12 $0.45 $0.84 $1.39

    Dividends per Share - Common Stock Primary Is $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

    Gross Dividends - Common Stock $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Interest Expense, Supplemental $71.0 $77.0 $78.0 $92.0 $107.2

    Depreciation, Supplemental $311.0 $258.0 $200.0 $113.0 $74.7

    Normalized EBITDA $1,182.0 $926.0 $599.0 $550.0 $516.1

    Normalized EBIT $842.0 $655.0 $389.0 $432.0 $440.4

    Normalized Income Before Tax $901.0 $660.0 $377.0 $428.0 $355.9

    Financial data in U.S. DollarsValues in Millions (Except for per share items)

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    5/22

    Normalized Income After Taxes $654.0 $476.0 $190.0 $333.0 $588.5

    Normalized Income Available to Common $645.0 $476.0 $190.0 $333.0 $588.5

    Basic Normalized EPS $1.52 $1.15 $0.46 $0.81 $1.45

    Diluted Normalized EPS $1.49 $1.12 $0.45 $0.78 $1.39

    Amortization of Intangibles $29.0 $13.0 $10.0 $5.0 $1.0

    Annual Balance Sheet2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

    Period End Date ### ### ### ### ###

    Stmt Source 10-K 10-K 10-K 10-K 10-K

    Stmt Source Date ### ### ### ### ###

    Stmt Update Type Updated eclassified Updated eclassified Updated

    Assets

    Cash and Short Term Investments $3,727.0 $3,112.0 $2,019.0 $2,000.0 $1,779.2

    Cash & Equivalents $2,769.0 $2,539.0 $1,022.0 $1,013.0 $1,302.6

    Short Term Investments $958.0 $573.0 $997.0 $987.0 $476.6

    Total Receivables, Net $827.0 $682.0 $382.0 $259.0 $187.1

    Accounts Receivable - Trade, Net $827.0 $682.0 $382.0 $259.0 $187.1

    Receivables - Other Error Error Error Error Error

    Total Inventory $1,399.0 $1,200.0 $877.0 $566.0 $479.7

    Prepaid Expenses $0.0 $23.0 $17.0 $15.0 $12.0

    Other Current Assets, Total $204.0 $147.0 $78.0 $89.0 $81.4

    Total Current Assets $6,157.0 $5,164.0 $3,373.0 $2,929.0 $2,539.4

    Property/Plant/Equipment, Total - Net $854.0 $543.0 $457.0 $348.0 $246.2

    Goodwill, Net $438.0 $222.0 $195.0 $159.0 $139.0

    Intangibles, Net $160.0 $27.0 $0.0 $0.0 $5.4

    Long Term Investments $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Note Receivable - Long Term $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Other Long Term Assets, Total $705.0 $529.0 $338.0 $260.0 $318.6

    Other Assets, Total $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Total Assets $8,314.0 $6,485.0 $4,363.0 $3,696.0 $3,248.5Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity

    Accounts Payable $3,594.0 $2,795.0 $1,816.0 $1,366.0 $1,141.7

    Payable/Accrued $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Accrued Expenses $1,093.0 $902.0 $716.0 $533.0 $435.2

    Notes Payable/Short Term Debt $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Current Port. of LT Debt/Capital Leases $59.0 $17.0 $0.0 $0.0 $2.4

    Other Current Liabilities, Total $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $41.1

    Total Current Liabilities $4,746.0 $3,714.0 $2,532.0 $1,899.0 $1,620.4

    Total Long Term Debt $409.0 $1,282.0 $1,247.0 $1,480.0 $1,855.3

    Long Term Debt $409.0 $1,282.0 $1,247.0 $1,480.0 $1,855.3

    Deferred Income Tax $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Minority Interest $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0Other Liabilities, Total $487.0 $292.0 $153.0 $71.0 $0.0

    Total Liabilities $5,642.0 $5,288.0 $3,932.0 $3,450.0 $3,475.7

    Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Preferred Stock - Non Redeemable, Net $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Common Stock $4.0 $4.0 $4.0 $4.0 $4.1

    Retained Earnings (Accumulated Deficit) -$730.0 -$1,375.0 -$1,837.0 -$2,027.0 -$2,386.0

    Treasury Stock - Common -$600.0 -$500.0 -$252.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Unrealized Gain (Loss) Error Error Error Error Error

    Other Equity, Total -$123.0 $5.0 -$1.0 $6.0 $30.1

    Financial data in U.S. Dollars

    Values in Millions (Except for per share items)

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    6/22

    Total Equity $2,672.0 $1,197.0 $431.0 $246.0 -$227.2

    Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity $8,314.0 $6,485.0 $4,363.0 $3,696.0 $3,248.5

    Total Common Shares Outstanding 428.0 416.0 414.0 416.0 409.7

    Total Preferred Shares Outstanding 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Annual Cash Flow Statement2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

    Period End Date ### ### ### ### ###

    Period Length 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months

    Stmt Source 10-K 10-K 10-K 10-K 10-K

    Stmt Source Date ### ### ### ### ###

    Stmt Update Type Updated Updated Updated Updated Updated

    Net Income/Starting Line $645.0 $476.0 $190.0 $359.0 $588.5

    Depreciation/Depletion $287.0 $246.0 $205.0 $121.0 $75.7

    Amortization $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Deferred Taxes -$5.0 -$99.0 $22.0 $70.0 -$256.7

    Non-Cash Items $56.0 -$50.0 $1.0 $30.0 $54.7

    Discontinued Operations Error Error Error Error Error

    Unusual Items Error Error Error Error Error

    Other Non-Cash Items $56.0 -$50.0 $1.0 $56.0 $54.7

    Changes in Working Capital $714.0 $832.0 $284.0 $153.0 $104.4

    Accounts Receivable -$218.0 -$255.0 -$103.0 -$84.0 -$1.8

    Inventories -$232.0 -$303.0 -$282.0 -$104.0 -$168.9

    Other Assets Error Error Error Error Error

    Accounts Payable $812.0 $928.0 $402.0 $274.0 $286.1

    Other Liabilities $105.0 $33.0 $26.0 $7.0 $4.0

    Cash from Operating Activities $1,697.0 $1,405.0 $702.0 $733.0 $566.6

    Capital Expenditures -$333.0 -$224.0 -$216.0 -$204.0 -$89.1

    Purchase of Fixed Assets -$333.0 -$224.0 -$216.0 -$204.0 -$89.1

    Other Investing Cash Flow Items, Total -$866.0 $266.0 -$117.0 -$574.0 -$228.5

    Acquisition of Business -$494.0 -$75.0 -$32.0 -$24.0 -$71.2Sale of Business Error Error Error Error Error

    Sale of Fixed Assets Error Error Error Error Error

    Sale/Maturity of Investment $1,305.0 $1,271.0 $1,845.0 $836.0 $1,426.8

    Investment, Net Error Error Error Error Error

    Purchase of Investments -$1,677.0 -$930.0 -$1,930.0 -$1,386.0 -$1,584.1

    Other Investing Cash Flow Error Error Error Error Error

    Cash from Investing Activities -$1,199.0 $42.0 -$333.0 -$778.0 -$317.6

    Financing Cash Flow Items $159.0 $257.0 $102.0 $0.0 $0.0Other Financing Cash Flow $159.0 $257.0 $102.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Total Cash Dividends Paid $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Issuance (Retirement) of Stock, Net -$89.0 -$157.0 -$217.0 $66.0 $60.1

    Issuance (Retirement) of Debt, Net -$268.0 -$50.0 -$285.0 -$259.0 -$157.4Cash from Financing Activities -$198.0 $50.0 -$400.0 -$193.0 -$97.3

    Foreign Exchange Effects -$70.0 $20.0 $40.0 -$52.0 $48.7

    Net Change in Cash $230.0 $1,517.0 $9.0 -$290.0 $200.3

    Net Cash - Beginning Balance $2,539.0 $1,022.0 $1,013.0 $1,303.0 $1,102.3

    Net Cash - Ending Balance $2,769.0 $2,539.0 $1,022.0 $1,013.0 $1,302.6

    Financial data in U.S. DollarsValues in Millions (Except for per share items)

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    7/22

    Quarterly Income Statement2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2008 Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q2

    ### ### ### ### 06/30/2008

    3 Months 3 Months 3 Months 3 Months 3 Months10-Q 10-Q 10-K 10-Q 10-Q

    ### ### ### ### 07/25/2008

    Updated Calculated Updated Updated Updated

    $4,651.0 $4,890.0 $6,704.0 $4,264.0 $4,063.0

    $4,651.0 $4,890.0 $6,704.0 $4,264.0 $4,063.0

    $3,518.0 $3,742.0 $5,356.0 $3,265.0 $3,096.0

    $1,133.0 $1,148.0 $1,348.0 $999.0 $967.0

    $615.0 $618.0 $790.0 $574.0 $537.0$299.0 $276.0 $278.0 $264.0 $258.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0$60.0 $11.0 $8.0 $7.0 -$45.0

    $159.0 $243.0 $272.0 $154.0 $217.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $3.0 $5.0 $7.0 $0.0 -$1.0

    $179.0 $248.0 $303.0 $182.0 $208.0

    $39.0 $69.0 $79.0 $59.0 $46.0

    $140.0 $179.0 $224.0 $123.0 $162.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $2.0 -$2.0 $2.0 -$5.0 -$4.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $142.0 $177.0 $226.0 $118.0 $158.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    Error Error Error Error Error

    Error Error Error Error Error

    $142.0 $177.0 $226.0 $118.0 $158.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    431.00 429.00 428.00 427.00 420.00

    $0.33 $0.41 $0.53 $0.28 $0.38

    $0.33 $0.41 $0.53 $0.28 $0.38

    440.00 429.00 436.00 436.00 430.00

    $0.32 $0.41 $0.52 $0.27 $0.37

    $0.32 $0.41 $0.52 $0.27 $0.37

    $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $7.0 $12.0 $12.0 $17.0 $21.0

    $91.0 $89.0 $86.0 $80.0 $74.0

    $250.0 $332.0 $358.0 $234.0 $291.0

    $159.0 $243.0 $272.0 $154.0 $217.0

    $179.0 $248.0 $303.0 $182.0 $208.0

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    8/22

    $140.0 $179.0 $224.0 $123.0 $162.0

    $142.0 $177.0 $226.0 $118.0 $158.0

    $0.33 $0.41 $0.53 $0.28 $0.38

    $0.32 $0.41 $0.52 $0.27 $0.37

    Error Error Error Error Error

    Quarterly Balance Sheet2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2008 Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q2

    ### ### ### ### 06/30/2008

    10-Q 10-Q 10-K 10-Q 10-Q

    ### ### ### ### 07/25/2008

    Updated Updated Updated Updated Updated

    $3,212.0 $2,730.0 $3,727.0 $2,324.0 $2,380.0

    $1,936.0 $1,701.0 $2,769.0 $1,650.0 $1,548.0

    $1,276.0 $1,029.0 $958.0 $674.0 $832.0

    $584.0 $587.0 $827.0 $597.0 $586.0

    $584.0 $587.0 $827.0 $597.0 $586.0

    Error Error Error Error Error

    $1,325.0 $1,266.0 $1,399.0 $1,315.0 $1,107.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $183.0 $192.0 $204.0 $194.0 $163.0

    $5,304.0 $4,775.0 $6,157.0 $4,430.0 $4,236.0

    $981.0 $889.0 $854.0 $731.0 $651.0

    $451.0 $433.0 $438.0 $405.0 $400.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $939.0 $883.0 $865.0 $1,000.0 $1,035.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $7,675.0 $6,980.0 $8,314.0 $6,566.0 $6,322.0

    $2,508.0 $2,380.0 $3,594.0 $2,242.0 $1,963.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $808.0 $1,030.0 $902.0 $860.0 $812.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $59.0 $42.0 $441.0

    $320.0 $0.0 $191.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $3,636.0 $3,410.0 $4,746.0 $3,144.0 $3,216.0

    $109.0 $74.0 $409.0 $393.0 $433.0

    $109.0 $74.0 $409.0 $393.0 $433.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0$674.0 $578.0 $487.0 $502.0 $443.0

    $4,419.0 $4,062.0 $5,642.0 $4,039.0 $4,092.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $4.0 $4.0 $4.0 $4.0 $4.0

    -$411.0 -$553.0 -$730.0 -$955.0 -$1,074.0

    -$600.0 -$600.0 -$600.0 -$500.0 -$500.0

    Error Error Error Error Error

    -$58.0 -$143.0 -$123.0 -$73.0 $6.0

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    9/22

    $3,256.0 $2,918.0 $2,672.0 $2,527.0 $2,230.0

    $7,675.0 $6,980.0 $8,314.0 $6,566.0 $6,322.0

    432.0 429.0 428.0 429.0 426.0

    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Quarterly Cash Flow Statement2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2008 Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q2

    ### ### ### ### 06/30/2008

    6 Months 3 Months 12 Months 9 Months 6 Months

    10-Q 10-Q 10-K 10-Q 10-Q

    ### ### ### ### 07/25/2008

    Updated Updated Updated Updated Updated

    $319.0 $177.0 $645.0 $420.0 $301.0

    $171.0 $87.0 $287.0 $210.0 $134.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $7.0 $0.0 -$5.0 -$47.0 -$29.0

    $139.0 $29.0 $56.0 -$14.0 -$14.0

    Error Error Error Error Error

    -$12.0 $2.0 -$34.0 -$17.0 $7.0

    $151.0 $27.0 $90.0 $3.0 -$21.0

    -$753.0 -$878.0 $714.0 -$443.0 -$690.0

    $183.0 $167.0 -$218.0 $106.0 $115.0

    $84.0 $107.0 -$232.0 -$130.0 $113.0

    Error Error Error Error Error

    -$1,073.0 -$1,129.0 $812.0 -$524.0 -$886.0

    $181.0 $99.0 $105.0 $66.0 $31.0

    -$117.0 -$585.0 $1,697.0 $126.0 -$298.0

    -$133.0 -$55.0 -$333.0 -$231.0 -$130.0

    -$133.0 -$55.0 -$333.0 -$231.0 -$130.0

    -$294.0 -$92.0 -$866.0 -$604.0 -$698.0

    -$35.0 -$15.0 -$494.0 -$408.0 -$400.0Error Error Error Error Error

    Error Error Error Error Error

    $692.0 $314.0 $1,305.0 $1,033.0 $452.0

    Error Error Error Error Error

    -$951.0 -$391.0 -$1,677.0 -$1,229.0 -$750.0

    Error Error Error Error Error

    -$427.0 -$147.0 -$1,199.0 -$835.0 -$828.0

    $70.0 $49.0 $159.0 $160.0 $106.0$70.0 $49.0 $159.0 $160.0 $106.0

    $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

    $0.0 $3.0 -$89.0 $10.0 $8.0

    -$362.0 -$343.0 -$268.0 -$303.0 -$8.0-$292.0 -$291.0 -$198.0 -$133.0 $106.0

    $3.0 -$45.0 -$70.0 -$47.0 $29.0

    -$833.0 -$1,068.0 $230.0 -$889.0 -$991.0

    $2,769.0 $2,769.0 $2,539.0 $2,539.0 $2,539.0

    $1,936.0 $1,701.0 $2,769.0 $1,650.0 $1,548.0

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    10/22

    Consensus Estimates Analysis

    Period # of Ests. Mean Est. High Est. Low Est. 1 Year Ago

    Sales Current Year 29 $22,689 $23,289 $22,130 $24,756Next Year 29 $27,006 $30,214 $25,500 $30,930

    Period # of Ests. Mean Est. High Est. Low Est. 1 Year Ago

    EPSCurrent Year 29 $1.75 $2.38 $1.57 $2.11

    Next Year 29 $2.20 $2.75 $1.97 $2.81

    Consensus Estimates Trend and Revisions Summary

    Period Current1 Week Ago Month Ago Months Ago1 Year Ago

    SalesCurrent Year ### $22,688.60 $22,348.30 $22,322.30 $24,755.60

    Next Year ### $27,005.80 $26,430.10 $26,431.10 $30,929.50

    EPSCurrent Year $1.75 $1.73 $1.62 $1.62 $2.11

    Next Year $2.20 $2.20 $2.08 $2.06 $2.81

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    11/22

    Last Week Last 4 Weeks

    Up Down Up Down

    0 0 22 6

    0 0 18 81 0 24 3

    0 0 22 3

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    12/22

    10-year Bond Yield

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    13/22

    T+1 T+0 T-.25 T-.5 T-.75 T-1

    Gross Operating Cashflow to Firm

    Net Income 142.00 177.00 226.00 118.00

    Add: Interest Expense x (1-TR) - - - -

    Add: Depreciation - - - -

    Add: Other Adjustments - - - -

    Add: R&D 299.00 276.00 278.00 264.00

    Add: Rental ExpenseTotal 441.00 453.00 504.00 382.00

    Invested Capital

    Total Assets 7,675.00 6,980.00 8,314.00 6,566.00 6,322.00

    Less: Current Liabilities ex- short-term debt 3,636.00 3,410.00 4,687.00 3,102.00 2,775.00

    Total 4,965.11 4,039.00 3,570.00 3,627.00 3,464.00 3,547.00

    Growth 22.9% 13.9%

    ROIC - Current 46.93%

    EV/IC - Current 8.67

    ROIC/CoC - Current 5.30ROIC - Assumed Forward 62.43%

    EV/IC - Forward 7.05

    ROIC/CoC - Forward 7.05

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    14/22

    TTM Ave

    663.00

    -

    -

    -

    1,117.00

    -1,780.00

    6,998.50

    3,205.50

    3,793.00

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    15/22

    2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

    Gross Operating Cashflow to Firm

    Net Income 645.00 476.00 190.00 359.00 588.45

    Add: Interest Expense x (1-TR) - - - - -

    Add: Depreciation 287.00 246.00 205.00 121.00 75.72

    Add: Other Adjustments 51.00 ### 23.00 100.00 ###

    Add: R&D 1,033.00 818.00 662.00 451.00 251.20

    Add: Rental ExpenseTotal 2,016.00 ### ### ### 713.40

    Invested Capital

    Total Assets 8,314.00 ### ### ### ###

    Less: Current Liabilities ex- short-term de4,687.00 ### ### ### ###

    Total 3,627.00 ### ### ### ###

    Growth 30.09% 52.27% 1.89% 10.21% #DIV/0!

    ROIC 55.58% 49.89% 58.98% 57.37% 43.75%

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    16/22

    Piotroski 1 (Positive Net Income) 1

    Piotroski 2 (Positive Operating Cash Flow) 1

    Piotroski 3 (Increasing Net Income) 1

    Piotroski 4 (Operating Cash flow exceeds Net Income) 1

    Piotroski 5 (Decreasing ratio of long-term debt to asse 1

    Piotroski 6 (Increasing Current Ratio) 1

    Piotroski 7 (No increase in outstanding shares) 0

    Piotroski 8 (Increasing Gross Margins) 1Piotroski 9 (Increasing Asset Turnover) 1

    Piotroski F-Score 8 Strongest com

    Altman Z-Score 8.27

    Z Score Bankrup

    Zones of Discrim

    Z > 2.99 -Safe Z

    1.8 < Z < 2.99 -G

    Z < 1.80 -Distres

    1. Net Income:

    2. Operating C

    3. Return On A

    4. Quality of E

    5. Long-Term

    6. Current Rati

    7. Shares Outs

    8. Gross Margi 9. Asset Turno

    T1

    = Working Capi

    T2

    = Retained Ear

    T3

    = Earnings Bef

    T4

    = Market Value

    T5

    = Sales/ Total

    Z = 1.2T1

    + 1.4T2

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    17/22

    panies - 8 to 9; Likely to go bankrupt - 2 or lower.

    cy Model:

    ination:

    ne

    ey Zone

    Zone

    Bottom line. Score 1 if last year net income is positive.

    sh Flow: A better earnings gauge. Score 1 if last year cash flow is positive.

    ssets: Measures Profitability. Score 1 if last year ROA exceeds prior-year ROA.

    rnings: Warns of Accounting Tricks. Score 1 if last year operating cash flow exceeds net income.

    ebt vs. Assets: Is Debt decreasing? Score 1 if the ratio of long-term debt to assets is down from the year-ago

    : Measures increasing working capital. Score 1 if CR has increased from the prior year.

    anding: A Measure of potential dilution. Score 1 if the number of shares outstanding is no greater than the yea

    : A measure of improving competitive position. Score 1 if full-year GM exceeds the prior-year GM.er: Measures productivity. Score 1 if the percentage increase in sales exceeds the percentage increase in tota

    tal / Total Assets

    ings / Total Assets

    re Interest and Taxes / Total Assets

    of Equity / Book Value of Total Liabilities

    ssets

    3.3T3

    + .6T4

    + .999T5

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    18/22

    value. (If LTD is zero but assets are increasing, score 1 anyway.)

    r-ago figure.

    l assets.

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    19/22

    Quarterly Cash Flow Statement Annual Cash Fl30-Jun-09 31-Mar-09 ### ### ### ###

    Net Income $142,000 $177,000 $225,000 $119,000 $645,000 $476,000

    Operating Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In

    Depreciation $84,000 $87,000 $77,000 $76,000 $287,000 $246,000

    Adjustments To Net Income $117,000 $29,000 $112,000 -$18,000 $51,000 -$149,000

    Changes In Accounts Receivables $16,000 $167,000 -$324,000 -$9,000 -$218,000 -$255,000

    Changes In Liabilities -$49,000 ### ### $433,000 ### ###

    Changes In Inventories -$23,000 $107,000 -$102,000 -$243,000 -$232,000 -$303,000

    Changes In Other Operating Activities $181,000 - -$66,000 $66,000 - $33,000

    Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities $468,000 -$585,000 ### $424,000 ### ###

    Investing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In

    Capital Expenditures -$78,000 -$55,000 -$102,000 -$101,000 -$333,000 -$224,000

    Investments -$182,000 -$77,000 -$176,000 $102,000 -$372,000 $341,000Other Cashflows from Investing Activities -$20,000 -$15,000 -$86,000 -$8,000 -$494,000 -$75,000

    Total Cash Flows From Investing Activities -$280,000 -$147,000 -$364,000 -$7,000 ### $42,000

    Financing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In

    Dividends Paid - - - - - -

    Sale Purchase of Stock -$3,000 $3,000 -$99,000 $2,000 -$89,000 -$157,000

    Net Borrowings -$19,000 -$343,000 $35,000 -$295,000 -$268,000 -$50,000

    Other Cash Flows from Financing Activities $21,000 $49,000 -$1,000 $54,000 $159,000 $257,000

    Total Cash Flows From Financing Activiti -$1,000 -$291,000 -$65,000 -$239,000 -$198,000 $50,000

    Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes $48,000 -$45,000 -$23,000 -$76,000 -$70,000 $20,000

    Change In Cash and Cash Equivalents $235,000 ### ### $102,000 $230,000 ###

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    20/22

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    21/22

    Earnings Surprises

    (6/08) (9/08) (12/08) (3/09) (6/09) Error

    -- -- -- -- -- 28

    -- -- -- -- -- 0.27

    -- -- -- -- 0.37Actual 0.37 0.27 0.52 0.41 0.32 0.27

    Estimate 0.26 0.25 0.40 0.30 0.31 0.32

    Difference 0.11 0.02 0.12 0.11 0.01 --

    % Change 42.3% 8.0% 30.0% 36.7% 3.2% 20.2%

    Qtr(9/09)

    Earnings Growth Rates 0.32

    Last 5 Years FY 2009 FY 2010 Next 5 Years 09 P/E 0.33

    Company 20.9% 12.5% 28.7% 26.8% 50.4 0.31

    Industry 21.5% 6.2% 19.9% 20.8% 36.5 0.31

    S&P 500 -2.7% 8.8% 25.3% NA 18.5 0.31

    Current 1 Month Ago Months Ag Months Ago

    Mean Recommendation 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.6

    Strong Buy 4 4 4 4

    Moderate Buy 2 2 2 2

    Hold 14 13 12 13

    Moderate Sell 0 0 0 0

    Strong Sell 1 0 0 1

    Current Consensus Hold

  • 8/14/2019 T-2 4.4% 3 1 1 49.9%

    22/22

    Error Error ErrorEarnings Estimates

    27 30 29 Number of Analysts

    0.52 1.52 1.88 Low Estimate

    0.71 1.77 2.50 High Estimate

    0.52 1.49 1.68 Year Ago EPS

    0.61 1.68 2.16 Average Estimate

    -- -- --

    17.9% 12.5% 28.7% Growth Rate

    tr(12/09) Y(12/09)FY(12/10) Consensus EPS Trend

    0.61 1.68 2.16 Current Estimate

    0.62 1.68 2.16 7 Days Ago

    0.60 1.62 2.08 30 Days Ago

    0.60 1.62 2.07 60 Days Ago

    0.59 1.61 2.05 90 Days Ago


Recommended