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Workshop on Biofuels and Food SecurityInternational Food Policy Research Institute

Washington, DCNovember 20, 2014

Lee Rybeck LyndThayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College

Global Sustainable Bioenergy ProjectBioenergy Science Center

Institutions, Innovation, and the Cost of Inaction

GSBGlobal Sustainable Bioenergy

Critical challenge: From resource capital to resource income

Navigating this smoothly requires, for all sectorsDoing things differently than we do them now. It is unreasonable toexpect an extrapolated future to be different from the present.

Systemic approach. Multiple, mutually-reinforcing approaches toachieve multiple, complementary objectives.

Increased efficiency. All supply chain steps.

Resource Revolutions in Human History

Hunting & Gathering

PreindustrialAgricultural

PresustainableIndustrial

~ 10,000 BC…

1750 AD…

NeolithicRevolution

IndustrialRevolution

SustainableIndustrial

Now

SustainabilityRevolution

Duration: Millennia

Several centuries

Population:

50 million 750 million

Small groups

Farms/villages

< a century

~7 billion

Global

Cities/countries

Scale of societalintegration/potentialcollapse:

(Lynd, Energy Envir. Sci, 2010).

Poverty and food insecurity: More one problem than two

• All wealthy people have access to food• All involuntarily hungry people are poor

When food insecurity is viewed in terms of metrics – availability, access, utilization, stability – the impact of bioenergy may appear obscure

PovertyRural unemploymentLack of marketable skillsLow currency value

Degraded land

Poorly developed infrastructure(Physical, market, knowhow)

Local production underminedby foreign subsidies

High food prices

* Thurow, R, S. Kilman. Enough: Why the World’s Poor Starve in an Age of Plenty. 2009.

Consider instead the causes of food insecurity*

Bioenergy in Relation to Metrics and Causes of Food Insecurity

Poverty and food insecurity: More one problem than two

• All wealthy people have access to food• All involuntarily hungry people are poor

Bioenergy done right has clear potential to positively impact all of these.

When food insecurity is viewed in terms of metrics – availability, access, utilization, stability – bioenergy may appear to have indirect and perhaps negative impacts

PovertyRural unemploymentLack of marketable skillsLow currency value

Degraded land

Poorly developed infrastructure(Physical, market, knowhow)

Local production underminedby foreign subsidies

High food prices

* Thurow, R, S. Kilman. Enough: Why the World’s Poor Starve in an Age of Plenty. 2009.

Consider instead the causes of food insecurity*

Bioenergy in Relation to Metrics and Causes of Food Insecurity

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It may be more productive, and also more correct, to view the sharply divergent assessments of bioenergy as informative answers to two different questions rather than irreconcilable answers to the same question.

Large potential,feasible, desirable

Small potential,infeasible, undesirable

What are the impacts of adding(usually today’s) bioenergy to a world based on extrapolating current practices?

What role could (usually tomorrow’s)bioenergy play in a world reconfiguredto meet energy challenges?

Biggest Limitation

Does not illuminate solutions Not consistent with current reality

What we can do and need to doValue What we can not or should not do

Cost of inactionChief Concern

Cost of action

Sharply-Divergent Assessments of Bioenergy: Potential Reconciliation

Some More Nuanced DichotomiesSocial impacts of bioenergy

Likely negative

Minimize social interactionwith bioenergy – go wherethe people aren’t

Potentially positive

Maximize social interaction with bioenergy – go wherethe people are

Food security impactsimpacts of bioenergy

Likely negative

Minimize interactions betweenbioenergy and food production (use marginal, degraded land)

Potentially positive

Maximize interactions betweenbioenergy and food production (e.g. integrated production,bioenergy enhancement offood supply resilience)

A false dichotomy (both needed)

Village scale Industrial scale

Are clear examples of highlymeritorious systems(Balakrishna)

Necessary to meet challengesin developed countries

Also can offer benefits in developing countries

Locally implementable

Institutions

Food • Price • Access

Development • Employment • Energy poverty alleviation • Education

Land Management • Land use • Integrated production • Fertility • Water

Social • Land tenure/land grab • Gender • Distribution of benefits

Technology • Production models • Innovation

Environment • Water • GHG • Climate

An already complex set of interactions

BioenergyBioenergy

…can result in positive or negative outcomeswhen bioenergy is added.

Good governance is essentialto maximize benefits

Does not always accompanybioenergy opportunities

Government agencies overseeing aspects of bioenergy often stovepiped

Multi-sector, multi-levelgovernance structures more likely effective than single sector/level

Innovative public-private partnerships and business models are promising forensuring P3 benefits

Innovation

Institutional innovation. Just discussed

We mustn’t forget technical innovation – alarming signs of decreasing investment

New crops

Cellulosic biofuels, aviation biofuels

Intensified and/or integrated land management

Goldemberg et al., 2004

Actual cost decreases with experience & innovation

Cost

Progress/Experience

Rand CurveEstimated cost increases with experience,inversely related to ignorance

Rand Study, 1979

Brazil 1st Gen Ethanol Curve

Need-responsive supply chains. e.g. use of ethanol in farm machinery and trucks

Grand Challenges

Climate change

Bioenergy

Fuel for long-distance transport and industrial heat are difficult to provide from other low carbon sources

As a result, a low-carbon energy future is substantiallyeasier to achieve with bioenergy than without it

Sustainable agriculture Integration of perennial crops into agricultural landscapes can reduce erosion, improve/reclaimsoil fertility, and improve nutrient capture/water quality

Economic development None of the MDGs can be met without major improvement in the quality and quantity of energy services in developing countries (UNDP)

Most of the world’s poor are rural, and agricultural development benefits rural poor more than other development

Bioenergy Has Clear Potential to Positively Impact Key Grand Challenges Facing Humanity

Bioenergy Contribution in 2050: Five Low-Carbon Energy Scenarios

Dale et al., ES&T, 2014

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Even with aggressive increases in efficiency, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles,biofuels provide about half transportation energy in the IEA 2DS extended to 2075.Fulton et al., in review.

Broad Consensus that Bioenergy has a Large Role to Play in Climate Change Mitigation

Risk of inaction: The world will miss out on bioenergy’s contribution to meeting grand challenges

Risk of action: We will manage some bioenergylinkages poorly, thus compromising thingswe care about

No further bioenergy development no further grand challenge impact

Mistakes can be corrected, successes replicated

World’s main focus since 2008

Food • Price • Access

Development • Employment • Energy poverty alleviation • Education

Land Management • Land use • Integrated production • Fertility • Water

Social • Land tenure/land grab • Gender • Distribution of benefits

Technology • Production models • Innovation

Environment • Water • GHG • Climate

Bioenergy

Risk of inaction: The world will miss out on bioenergy’s contribution to meeting grand challenges

Risk of action: We will manage some bioenergylinkages poorly, thus compromising thingswe care about

No further bioenergy development no further grand challenge impact

Mistakes can be corrected, successes replicated

World’s main focus since 2008

Larger risk todayFood • Price • Access

Development • Employment • Energy poverty alleviation • Education

Land Management • Land use • Integrated production • Fertility • Water

Social • Land tenure/land grab • Gender • Distribution of benefits

Technology • Production models • Innovation

Environment • Water • GHG • Climate

Bioenergy