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Censos poblacion Habitantes

1938 29081951 31221964 7181

1973 101441985 297071993 447612005 106822

4.1 Mtodo grafico!o 2015 2025 2035 2045

"oblacion "f 150000 280000 470000 830000

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1930 1940 1950 19600

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

f(x) = 2.11274050859694E-045 exp(R = 0.9632143024

Metodo g

!"

$o%&a'o

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.0569766699 x )

rao

o#

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Habitantes

1938 29081951 31221964 71811973 10144

1985 297071993 447612005 106822

4.2 Mtodo de creci#iento lineal$ci%$c& ' 2015 2025 2035

1938%1951 1550.96 122332 137841 1533511951%1964 1920.37 126026 145229 1644331964%1973 2430.27 131125 155427 1797301973%1985 3021.19 137034 167246 197458

1985%1993 3855.75 145380 183937 2224951993%2005 5171.75 158540 210257 261975"ro#edio 2992 136739 166656 196573

Censospoblacion

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2045168860183637204033227670

261052313692226491

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Habitantes

1938 29081951 31221964 71811973 10144

1985 297071993 447612005 106822

4.3 Mtodo de creci#iento geo#trico$ci%$c& r 2015 2025 2035

1938%1951 0.05526 182916 313217 5363361951%1964 0.06761 205484 395269 7603431964%1973 0.06806 206362 398658 7701401973%1985 0.07635 222934 465257 970977

1985%1993 0.06608 202564 384116 7283891993%2005 0.07518 220527 455263 939860"ro#edio 0.06809 206798 401963 784341

Censospoblacion

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2045918393

146260114877832026399

138122519402771536113

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Habitantes

1938 29081951 31221964 71811973 10144

1985 297071993 447612005 106822

4.4 Mtodo de creci#iento logar(t#ico$ci%$c& )a 2015 2025 2035 2045

1938%1951 0.00546 179363 306350 523243 8936951951%1964 0.064071964%1973 0.038381973%1985 0.08954

1985%1993 0.051241993%2005 0.07249"ro#edio 0.05353

Censospoblacion

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Habitantes

1938 29081951 31221964 71811973 10144

1985 297071993 447612005 106822

4.5 Mtodo de *app&s$ci%$c& i 2015 2025 2035 2045

1938%1951 2.82686 %68745 %28230 %18583 %142591951%1964 3.49336 %56093 %24466 %16486 %128501964%1973 4.26352 %171889 %54995 %35147 %269441973%1985 5.16592 %249265 %69269 %43877 %33742

1985%1993 5.64825 359224 %487971 %173894 %1152591993%2005 6.82365 314191 %1020109 %251525 %160400"ro#edio 4.70359 21237 %280840 %89919 %60576

Censospoblacion

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"ro#edio de #etodos2015 2025 2035 2045

+rafico 150000 280000 470000 830000,ineal 136739 166656 196573 226491

+eo#etrico 206798 401963 784341 1536113

logarit#ico 179363 306350 523243 893695*app&s 21237 %280840 %89919 %60576

"ro#edio 138827 288742 493539 871575

Conso de a&ga

!o "oblaci-n ncre#ento " ncre#ento C /eto

2015 138827 237.60108 10.8

2025 288742 263.2671 7.12035 493539 281.93

77 7.72045 871575 303.52

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Ca&

"100 $otal pro#edio

0.3 339.428571429 344 10 553

0.25 351.01025593 356 20 1190

0.2 352.412322428 357 30 2042

0.15 357.088041643 362 40 3653

doptado,abdia

!os deproeccion

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ales ls)1 )2

#a diario #a orario664 1096

1428 2142

2450 3675

4383 6575

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:$C;/ , M?==< 53.90 323.00M=@< 130.50 389.10?=, 379.80 922.50MA< 514.78 860.00B/< 539.60 977.00B,< 502.00 752.00

+

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0.50

1.0019.8096.00213.00340.50181.00165.0027.00116.0057.60

1.90101.61

12.2011.1712.4319.7947.1756.4159.8361.4156.4651.1537.4793.31

43.23

72.42

CE, M/M