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Taiwan market strategy 2011 12_15_c_tw

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http://research.kgi.com 1 2011 12 15 2012 1 2 886.2.2181.8888 2012 6000 2H12 7900 1Q12 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 2012 2012 2011 4.5% 2012 3.8% 2Q12 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 2012 2012 (1101.TW) (2103.TW) (2303.TW) (2618.TW) (3036.TW) (4938.TW) (3231.TW) (4746.TW (5871.TW) (6269.TW) (6153.TW) , CFA , CFA
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  • 1. 2011 12 15 201212 886.2.2181.8888 , CFA 2012 6000 2H12 7900 1Q12 , CFA (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 2012 2012 2011 4.5% 2012 3.8% 2Q12 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 2012 2012 (1101.TW) (2103.TW) (2303.TW) (2618.TW) (3036.TW) (4938.TW) (3231.TW) (4746.TW (5871.TW) (6269.TW) (6153.TW) http://research.kgi.com 1
  • 2. 1 (1101.TW/1101 TT): 15 (2103.TW/2103 TT): 18 (2303.TW/2303 TT): 2Q12 21 (2618.TW/2618 TT): 24 (3036.TW/3036 TT): 27 (3231.TW/3231 TT): 30 (4746.TW/4746 TT): 33 (4938.TW/4938 TT): 2012 36 (5871.TW/5871 TT): 39 (6153.TW/6153 TT): 42 (6269.TW/6269 TT): 2012 45 : 51 : 53 IC : IC 5532 MCU : 32 MCU 57 : 2012 59 : ODM Ultrabook 61 : 63 LED TV : LE D TV 65 : 67 : Femtocell 69 : ; 71 : 73 : 75 : 77 : 79 : 81 : 2012 83 : 85 : 87CASH : -CASH 89 94 95 97 98 99 100 102 - 103 - 104 - 105 106 108 109 http://research.kgi.com 2011 12 15 2
  • 3. 1Q12 2012 2012 2 4 600 700 1.52008750 7% 2011 4.5% 2012 3.8% 2012 6000 (12.1X2012 PE& 1.16XPB)2H12 7900 (16.0X2012 PE& 1.53XPB) 2012 1Q12 2012(1) 201132% 2012 1Q12 (1) (2) : ( /ARM+ 1Q12 /Android)70 (3) (3231.TW, NT$38.6, ) : (4938.TW, NT$33.1, ) (2) 2012/3~5 1Q12 (4) : 0.9~2.3 7140 1.38 2012 (6269.TW, NT$70, ) (6153.TW, 2012 10% NT$32.4, )(3) 11% LED TV (5) : 2000 2008 (1569.TW, NT$51.5, ) (3376.TW, NT$51.7, ) (4)-30% -40% 1Q12 70 2011 8 http://research.kgi.com 2011 12 15 3
  • 4. (2303.TW, NT$12.55, )(3036.TW, NT$36.95, ) (5) (2618.TW, NT$18.5, )(1101.TW, NT$33.5, ) (2103.TW,NT$72.9, ) (5871.TW, NT$27, ) -CASH2011 127 2011 25% 2012 10% 4 81-10 100 40% 20% 20%20% CASH CASH Beta 0.9 CASH(1723.TW, NT$111, ) (2301.TW,NT$32.35, ) Beta 0.9 CASH (2498.TW,NT$415, ) (2103.TW, NT$72.9, ) (1326.TW, NT$81.5, ) http://research.kgi.com 2011 12 15 4
  • 5. 1Q12 2011 20 0 (20) (40) (60) (80) 2012 (100) (120) Solar LED NB PC/NB Foundry PCB IC design IPC Networking Handset 1Q12 components(1) (2) 2008 50 78 300 65 2011 2011 32% 3Q11 74 2008 60% 72 1Q12 70 2012 1Q12 1Q12 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 95 450 100 10,000 50% 90 80 400 13 9,000 60 85 350 40 8,000 80 32% 300 20 7,000 75 10 250 0 6,000 70 (20) 65 200 (40) 5,000 60 150 (60) 4,000 Mar-01 Dec-02 Sep-04 Jun-06 Mar-08 Dec-09 Sep-11 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 FactSets (3) LED 2Q11 http://research.kgi.com 2011 12 15 5
  • 6. ( 2003 SARS 2007 (5) ) 2001/9 2009/1 2012/3~51Q12 2000 2008 2Q12 ( ) ( ) 9 10 80 11,000 60 10,000 9,000 40 8,000 20 7,000 0 6,000 5,000 (20) 4,000 (40) 3,000 ( ) ( ) Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 120 11,000 105 10,000 100 84 Dot-com Sub-prime 9,000 80 8,000 63 58 60 7,000 39 6,000 40 5,000(4) 20 4,000 0 3,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0.9~2.3 1.0 TEJ ( 2001 2009 2012 2000 10% 5000 1111% 2007 12 7140 1.38 2012 30% 1.6 -30% -40% ROE18 3.0 2000 =1.615 2.5 2 8 30% 50%12 2.0 9 1.5 6 1.0 3 0.5 0 0.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 http://research.kgi.com 2011 12 15 6
  • 7. 2012 2011 (X ) 2012 (Y )1.2 2012 91.0 8 70.8 6 5 -30% 40.6 3 20.4 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 Nov-2000 Dec-2007 Aug-2011 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2011 1 TEJ1.81.6 33%1.41.21.0 50%0.80.6 2 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Sep-2001 Sep-2008 600 700 1 1.5 TEJ 2011 8 2012 2 4 10 80 70 2012 60 50 2012 40 30 20 2012 10 0 Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 201220122011 3% 2012 2.8% 2012 0.2% 2011 1.6% http://research.kgi.com 2011 12 15 7
  • 8. 12 9 6 3 ISM ( ) ( ) 0 90 80(3) 80 60 70 40(6) 60 20 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 50 0 40 (20) 30 (40) 20 (60) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2011 ( ) ( )8.0 9.0 20126.0 8.0 7.04.0 6.02.0 5.0 ( ) ( )0.0 4.0 3.0 80 20(2.0) 2.0 60(4.0) 15 1.0 40(6.0) 0.0 10 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 5 0 0 (20) (40) (5) (60) (10) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2012 http://research.kgi.com 2011 12 15 8
  • 9. 2012 2008/06 2008 6 2011 6 15 558 12 2008/07 5000 500 9 2008/08 40% 60% 6 2009/11 MOU MO U 2010 10 3 0 2010/1 QDII 5% QDII 10% (3) (6) 2010/6 ECFA 539 2013 267 (9)(12) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2007/12 1,376 2008 2011 4.4% 2012 4.2% 1576 2004% 2008 2012 750 2011 4.5%2012 3.8% 2012 10.0 180 160 5.0 140 120 100 0.0 80 60 (5.0) 40 20 (10.0) 0 Jan-03 Feb-04 Mar-05 Apr-06 May-07 Jun-08 Jul-09 Aug-10 Sep-112008 2009 2010 2008 ( ) ( )ECFA 539 2013 16 140 14 120 12 10 100 8 80 6 30% 4 60 2 40 50% 0 20 (2) (4) 0 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 http://research.kgi.com 2011 12 15 9
  • 10. 2000 -24% 11% 88% 7~10% 7% 6000 (12.1X2012 PE& 1.16XPB) 2H12 7900 (16.0X2012 PE& 1.53XPB)7.06.0 (2011/11/1 =100)5.0 1064.0 1013.02.0 961.0 1Q95 1Q98 1Q01 1Q04 1Q07 1Q10 91 863.0 1-Nov 3-Nov 7-Nov 9-Nov 11-Nov 15-Nov 17-Nov 21-Nov 23-Nov 25-Nov2.5 Taiex Hang Seng Nasdaq KOSPI2.01.51.00.5 9,500 1Q95 1Q98 1Q01 1Q04 1Q07 1Q10 9,000 8,5006.5 8,0005.5 7,5004.5 7,0003.5 6,5002.5 6,0001.5 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-120.5 1Q95 1Q98 1Q01 1Q04 1Q07 1Q10 http://research.kgi.com 2011 12 15 10
  • 11. 2012 NT$27.8, ) 2012 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) -CASH (EMS) ( /ARM+ 2011/Android) 127 2011 25% 2012 10% 4 8 1-10 100 40% 20% 20% 20% CASH CASH Beta 0.9 CASH (1723.TW, NT$111, ) (2301.TW, NT$32.35, ) Beta 0.9 CASH (2498.TW, NT$415, ) (2103.TW, NT$72.9, ) LED TV (1326.TW, NT$81.5, ) 2011 3Q11 7472 1Q12 70(2325.TW, NT$26.4, ) (2311.TW, http://research.kgi.com 2011 12 15 11
  • 12. 2012ODM 1. ODM EMS 2012 2011 75% (4938.TW) 2012 80% 20% 2. ODM 2011 2012 2012 3. (3231.TW) 1. 1Q12 (2303.TW) 1. 2Q12 2. 2. IC IDM 3. 2Q12 (3036.TW) 1. 2Q12 2. 1. 2012 1 ( (6153.TW) 1Q12 70% ) 30-40% 2. 3G 3. 4. 5. LED LED 2011 45% 2012 75% 1. (6269.TW) 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 45% 2012 (2618.TW) 1. 2012 200 , 2011 2. , 1. , , 1Q12, 1Q 3. , , 2. , 3. , (1101.TW) 1. 2. 2012 31% 3. 2012 (2103.TW) 1. 2. 3. 2012 8.5 10.6 (5871.TW) 1. 2012 37.7% 38.2% 2. 3. 2012 http://research.kgi.com 2011 12 15 12
  • 13. 1101.TW (6%) (3%) 2011 7.1% 2012 9.5% 2012 30% ( ) 33.5012 ( ) 44.00 / (%) 31.3 2103.TW 4Q11/1Q12 ( ) 72.9012 ( ) 94.00 / (%) 28.9 2303.TW (1). 2012 (2). (Beta) (3). 45/40 28 45/40 ( ) 12.5512 ( ) 15.50 / (%) 23.5 2618.TW 2012 21% 2 ( ) 18.5012 ( ) 22.00 / (%) 18.9 3036.TW (1). 2012 (2). (3). 2012 ( ) 36.9512 ( ) 56.00 / (%) 51.6 3231.TW 2012 20% ultrabook 300-400 10% 2011 2012 3-4 2012 400 2012 25% 2011 36% 2012 40% ( ) 38.60 201212 ( ) 46.00 / (%) 19.2 4746.TW 2011-13 10.5% 27.1% ( ) 69.0012 ( ) 89.00 / (%) 29.0 4938.TW DMS 2012 25% 23% 5% 1Q-3Q11 25-30% DMS DMS 10-15% 4Q11 2012 ( ) 33.10 ( ) 1212 ( ) 42.00 3-4 / (%) 26.9 http://research.kgi.com 2011 12 15 13
  • 14. 5871.TW (1). 2012 37.7% 38.2% (2). 2011 2012 18.3% 43.9% 2011 2012 6.4% 9.2% 39.8 ( 2012 8.6 1.5 ) ( ) 25.0012 ( ) 39.80 / (%) 59.2 6153.TW 1Q12 ( ) 32.4012 ( ) 50.00 / (%) 54.3 6269.TW (1). (2). (3). 45% ( ) 70.0012 ( ) 96.00 / (%) 37.1 http://research.kgi.com 2011 12 15 14
  • 15. (1101.TW/1101 TT)2011 12 15 http://research.kgi.com12 886.2.2181.87193 [email protected] (6%) L (3%) 12 12 ( ) 33.512 ( ) 44.0 / (%) 31.3 (percentile,%) 66 91.58% -12/11 (%) 6.0 50 2,200 2012 2011 7.1% 2012 9.5% M -12/11 (NT$) 26.1 -12/11 (x) 1.3 -12/11 (%) 0.8 2012 30% N52 ( / ): 28.1 - 47 : / 123.7/4,092 ( ): 3,692 ( ): 3,692 ( ): 1,2863M ( ): 18.4 (3,6,12M) (%) -4; -14; 9.2 (3,6,12M) (%) 2.1; 9.7; 37 44 10.6 15 6% 12 31 EBITDA ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2009A 20,904 1,950 842 2,611 7,425 2.23 2010A 22,097 1,208 107 1,832 8,031 2.41 2011F 24,021 1,711 535 1,927 9,006 2.44 2012F 26,274 2,504 1,243 2,645 11,700 3.17 12 31 EV/sales EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA EV/Inv. C (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) 2009A 5.9 37.9 47.1 15.0 1.2 9.8 2010A 5.5 37.5 66.3 13.9 1.1 9.2 2011F 5.2 38.4 64.6 13.7 1.1 9.4 2012F 4.8 38.8 47.6 10.6 1.0 11.9 http://research.kgi.com.tw 2011 12 15 15
  • 16. 1946 3 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.74 0.76 0.70 0.65(01136.HK) 0.36 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F Other [1.7] 50 80 70 45 60 50 40 40 RMC 30 44 35 20 54 10 Cement and clinker 30 0 (10) 25 (20) Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 6,900 65 26.8x 23.3x 19.8x 6,600 55 6,300 16.3x 45 6,000 12.8x 5,700 35 5,400 9.3x 25 5,100 5.8x 15 4,800 4,500 5 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9.5 9.5 65 9.0 2.3x 8.5 55 2.0x 7.1 45 1.7x 6.4 5.9 1.4x 5.4 35 1.1x 25 0.8x 15 0.5x 5 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 http://research.kgi.com.tw 2011 12 15 16
  • 17. 12 31 ( ) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 12 31 ( ) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 99,494 104,578 116,546 119,010 124,363 24,241 20,904 22,097 24,021 26,274 12,402 11,539 21,825 20,041 19,948 22,107 18,954 20,889 22,310 23,769 5,696 5,847 15,516 13,209 12,520 2,134 1,950 1,208 1,711 2,504 1,853 1,435 1,431 1,528 1,628 1,131 1,109 1,100 1,176 1,261 3,796 3,802 4,292 4,666 5,104 1,003 842 107 535 1,243 1,057 456 586 637 697 (470) (344) (276) 15 12 87,092 93,038 94,721 98,969 104,415 46,429 54,073 57,347 61,612 67,947 33 6 9 22 19 37,171 35,517 33,267 33,979 33,089 504 349 285 7 7 3,492 3,449 4,108 3,378 3,378 4,111 7,018 8,195 8,265 10,335 27,455 25,467 21,625 22,468 23,505 640 43 138 300 300 14,676 7,126 14,225 7,302 7,788 0 0 0 0 0 1,426 1,129 1,399 1,495 1,592 5,283 7,558 8,163 9,115 11,890 10,857 4,672 11,333 4,185 4,421 (478) 134 132 109 190 2,393 1,325 1,492 1,622 1,774 5,761 7,425 8,031 9,006 11,700 12,779 18,341 7,401 15,166 15,717 EBITDA 2,805 2,611 1,832 1,927 2,645 7,328 12,880 2,000 9,765 10,316 ( ) 1.74 2.23 2.41 2.44 3.17 5,451 5,461 5,401 5,401 5,401 72,039 79,110 94,921 96,542 100,858 32,922 32,922 36,922 36,922 36,922 25,082 29,074 38,780 38,780 38,780 14,035 17,114 19,219 20,841 25,156 0 0 0 0 0 12 31 ( ) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 7,344 4,687 8,383 5,836 6,419 5,761 7,425 8,031 9,006 11,700 1,802 1,769 1,725 1,392 1,402 150 (352) (179) (297) (347) 12 31 ( ) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F (369) (4,156) (1,194) (4,265) (6,335) (% ) 7,482 (3,560) (2,214) (1,375) (512) (1.3) (13.8) 5.7 8.7 9.4 (267) 15 621 (2,005) (412) (55.3) (16.0) (87.2) 398.4 132.2 8,049 (3,488) (2,080) 0 0EBITDA (34.3) (6.9) (29.8) 5.2 37.2 (301) (87) (754) 629 (100) (30.2) 28.9 8.2 12.1 29.9 Free Cash Flow 14,826 1,127 6,169 4,461 5,908 (30.4) 28.6 7.8 1.3 29.9 (%) (15,897) (977) 3,500 (6,767) (6,597) 8.8 9.3 5.5 7.1 9.5 (16,549) (354) 7,780 (7,384) (7,384) 4.1 4.0 0.5 2.2 4.7 1,262 (634) (4,219) 617 787EBITDA 11.6 12.5 8.3 8.0 10.1 (609) 10 (61) 0 0 23.8 35.5 36.3 37.5 44.5 (1,071) 150 9,669 (2,306) (690) 5.5 7.3 7.3 7.6 9.6 7.4 9.8 9.2 9.4 11.9 (%) 25.2 22.2 14.0 14.5 14.6 (%) 17.3 14.8 Net cash 0.8 2.2 ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) (X) 11.5 22.6 29.6 1337.3 1658.9 (X) 0.5 1.6 0.7 2.2 2.7 12 31 1- + + =Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X) 14.6 13.4 29.4 855.5 895.1 2008A 83.8% 7.4% 4.7% 4.1%Cash Flow/Int. & ST Debt (X) 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.4 2009A 82.2% 8.5% 5.3% 4.0% (X) 0.8 1.6 1.5 2.7 2.6 2010A 86.7% 7.8% 5.0% 0.5% (X) 0.7 1.4 1.4 2.5 2.4 2011F 87.1% 5.8% 4.9% 2.2% (NT$ ) 11,323 12,097 4,761 (721) 1,480 2012F 85.1% 5.3% 4.8% 4.7% (NT$ ) 12 31 1/ + + = 1.74 2.23 2.41 2.44 3.17 2.28 2.77 2.93 2.82 3.55 2008A 0.2 1.5 0.1 0.5 21.67 23.80 25.71 26.15 27.32 2009A 0.2 1.7 0.2 0.5 7.29 6.29 5.98 6.51 7.12 2010A 0.2 1.5 0.2 0.5 2011F 0.2 1.4 0.1 0.6EBITDAshr 0.30 0.25 0.03 0.15 0.34 2012F 0.2 1.3 0.1 0.6 1.32 1.80 2.00 2.00 2.20 12 31 x x 1- = ROIC 2008A 4.1% 0.5 109.0% 2.4% (X) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2009A 4.0% 0.5 98.2% 1.9% 57.1 66.4 70.9 70.9 70.9 2010A 0.5% 0.5 98.4% 0.3% 27.9 25.0 23.6 23.2 22.6 2011F 2.2% 0.6 98.8% 1.3% 21.5 19.7 23.1 22.7 22.1 2012F 4.7% 0.6 98.4% 2.9% 63.6 71.7 71.4 71.4 71.4 http://research.kgi.com.tw 2011 12 15 17
  • 18. (2103.TW/2103 TT)2011 12 15 http://research.kgi.com12 886.2.2181.87193 [email protected] L 12 12 ( ) 72.912 ( ) 94.0 4,200 / 1,550 / (%) 28.9 / 40% (percentile,%) 59 - 4Q11/1Q12 -12/11 (%) 6.9 M Dexco -12/11 (NT$) 27.7 2013 -12/11 (x) 2.6 -12/11 (%) N52 ( / ): 51.4 - 79.6 ; : / 52.1/1,724 ( ): 715 ( ): 715 ( ): 2913M ( ): 3.9 (3,6,12M) (%) 0.8; -2.3; 39.6 (3,6,12M) (%) 7.2; 24.1; 74.7 4Q11/1Q12 2012 3 94 7% 36% 12 31 EBITDA ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2009A 22,112 4,826 3,709 4,392 2,332 3.26 2010A 36,686 6,586 5,031 5,747 3,279 4.59 2011F 55,844 12,902 10,651 11,348 6,283 8.79 2012F 57,096 12,963 10,680 11,396 6,215 8.69 12 31 EV/sales EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA EV/Inv. C (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) 2009A 2.4 N.A. 12.2 22.4 2.7 16.7 2010A 1.5 N.A. 9.3 15.9 2.5 22.4 2011F 0.9 N.A. 4.5 8.3 1.8 35.9 2012F 0.9 N.A. 4.3 8.4 1.7 29.4 : http://research.kgi.com.tw 2011 12 15 18
  • 19. 3Q11 1973 (BR) - 2.29 2.32 2.17 2.13 2.16(SBR) (TPE) 1996 SBR 2.01 BR TPE 70% 1.66 SBR BR 1.23 SEBS( TPE) 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11F 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F / 7,000 85 70 6,000 80 60 5,000 75 50 40 4,000 70 30 3,000 65 20 2,000 60 10 1,000 55 0 0 50 (10) Oct-06 Apr-07 Nov-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jul-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 CIF Platts 16 100 12.0x 90 10.5x 14 80

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