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/ Slide 1 Public Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America Merrill Lynch Craig DeYoung – VP Investor Relations Taipei, Taiwan March 15, 2011
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Page 1: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

/ Slide 1 Public

Taiwan, Technology and Beyond ConferenceBank of America Merrill Lynch

Craig DeYoung –

VP Investor Relations

Taipei, TaiwanMarch 15, 2011

Page 2: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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Safe Harbor"Safe Harbor" Statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: the matters discussed in this document may include forward-looking statements, including statements made about our outlook, realization of backlog, IC unit demand, financial results, average selling price, gross margin and expenses, dividend policy and intention to repurchase shares.

These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to: economic conditions, product demand and semiconductor equipment industry capacity, worldwide demand and manufacturing capacity utilization for semiconductors (the principal product of our customer base), including the impact of general economic conditions on consumer confidence and demand for our customers’

products, competitive products and pricing, the impact of manufacturing efficiencies and capacity constraints, the pace

of new product development and customer acceptance of new products, our ability

to enforce patents and protect intellectual property rights, the risk of intellectual property litigation, availability of raw materials and critical manufacturing equipment, trade environment, changes in exchange rates, available cash, distributable reserves for dividend payments and share repurchases and other risks indicated in the risk factors included in ASML’s Annual Report on Form 20-F and other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Page 3: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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Agenda

ASML overviewMarket updateASML business updateOutlook and summary

Page 4: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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ASML Overview

Page 5: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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ASML –

one of the world’s leading suppliers of lithography equipment

for semiconductor manufacturing

Veldhoven, the Netherlands

NXT 1950 Immersion

Scanner

Page 6: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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Fourth Quarter 2010 Highlights

Revenue growth of 160% YoY and 30% QoQ

Operating margin of 32.4%

Shipped 28 immersion systems (leading edge tools)

Record bookings of € 2,315 million

Backlog increased to € 3,856 million, 157 systems with ASP of € 27.7 million for new tools, including 67 immersion tools

Continue to invest significantly in R&D

Generated € 302 million cash from operations, € 1,950M end of year cash balance

Proposed a doubling of dividend and announced a € 1B share buy back program

Page 7: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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685 629949 919

183742

763 942930 844

277

1,069

533958

934697

555

1,176548

1,053955

494

581

1,521

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Net

sal

es

Q4Q3Q2Q1

Total net sales M€

2,529

3,5823,768

Numbers have been rounded for readers’

convenience.

2,954

1,596

4,508

Page 8: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

/ Slide 8 Public

Backlog in value per December 31, 2010Total value M€ 3,856

Technology

ArF immersion

71%

KrF22% I-Line 1%

Region (ship to location)

USA 28%

Taiwan 23%

Korea 11%

Europe 11%

Japan 4%End-use

DRAM 27%

IDM 21% Foundry

33%

Numbers have been rounded for readers’ convenience.

Singapore 13%

China 10%

ArF dry 6%

NAND 19%

Page 9: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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Semi Equipment Market grew 101% in 2010 –

ASML grew 163% -

Takes # 2 slot amongst Semi Equip suppliers

Source: VLSI Research

Page 10: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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Market Update

Page 11: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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All sectors are ramping their new nodes Wafer starts per node

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

2x3x4x5x6x7x

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

1x22283x4x5x

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

2x3x4x

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

2x3x4x6x9x1xx

DRAM NAND

Logic MPU

Source: ASML estimates

Page 12: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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Memory

Page 13: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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MAIN DRAM SPOT & CONTRACT PRICES (01/2008 - 2011YTD)

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

Jan-

08Fe

b-08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-

08Ju

l-08

Aug

-08

Sep-

08O

ct-0

8N

ov-0

8D

ec-0

8Ja

n-09

Feb-

09M

ar-0

9A

pr-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

n-09

Jul-0

9A

ug-0

9Se

p-09

Oct

-09

Nov

-09

Dec

-09

Jan-

10Fe

b-10

Mar

-10

Apr

-10

May

-10

Jun-

10Ju

l-10

Aug

-10

Sep-

10O

ct-1

0N

ov-1

0D

ec-1

0Ja

n-11

Feb-

11M

ar-1

1

Chi

p A

SP [$

US]

1Gb DDR2 800 MHz SPOT PRICE1Gb DDR2 800 MHz CONTRACT PRICE1Gb DDR3 1333 MHz SPOT PRICE1Gb DDR3 1333 MHz CONTRACT PRICE2Gb DDR3 1333MHz SPOT PRICE2Gb DDR3 1333MHz CONTRACT PRICE

Source: DRAMeXchange

(4/3/2011), ASML MCC

DDR3 contract prices stable (at low level) Only aggressive shrink during Q1/11 could bring tier 2/3 players

back to profitability

DRAM

6X node, 1Gb

5x H node, 1 Gb

5x L node, 1 Gb

4x node, 2 Gb

Estimated DRAM cash costs in Q1/11 (avg. production node in nm)

Current DDR3 1 Gb

contract ASP at 0.88 $ Poor 5x nm yields

increases avg. costs

About 25% cash profit on 2Gb DDR3 ICs, if manufactured

at 4x nm and sold at current contract prices

Page 14: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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MAIN NAND SPOT & CONTRACT PRICES (01/2008 - 2011YTD)

0123456789

1011121314151617181920

Jan-

08Fe

b-08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-

08Ju

l-08

Aug

-08

Sep-

08O

ct-0

8N

ov-0

8D

ec-0

8Ja

n-09

Feb-

09M

ar-0

9A

pr-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

n-09

Jul-0

9A

ug-0

9Se

p-09

Oct

-09

Nov

-09

Dec

-09

Jan-

10Fe

b-10

Mar

-10

Apr

-10

May

-10

Jun-

10Ju

l-10

Aug

-10

Sep-

10O

ct-1

0N

ov-1

0D

ec-1

0Ja

n-11

Feb-

11M

ar-1

1

Chi

p A

SP [$

US]

16Gb NAND SLC SPOT PRICE16Gb NAND SLC CONTRACT PRICE32Gb NAND MLC SPOT PRICE32Gb NAND MLC CONTRACT PRICE64Gb NAND TLC SPOT PRICE64Gb NAND TLC CONTRACT PRICE

NAND

300 mm cash-costs for 3x nm

32 Gb 2 b/c

MLC NAND between 3,2 and 4,0 USD

Healthy demand for NAND-based electronic devices resulting in recent price increases for SLC-, MLC-

and TLC-ICs

Source: DRAMeXchange

(4/3/2011), ASML MCC

300 mm cash-costs for 3x nm

32 Gb 3 b/c

MLC NAND between 2,6 and 3,2 USD

300 mm costs for mature 2x nm

64 Gb MLC NAND between 5.5 and 6,5 USD

Page 15: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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Number of immersion layers keeps increasing per node, per year for memory devices

Node 8x, 6x 6x, 5x 5x, 4x 4x, 3x 3x, 2x Node 5x, 4x 4x, 3x 4x, 3x 3x, 2x 2x, 1x

0

2

4

6

8

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Add. layers per year

Immersion Exposures

Average DRAM immersion layers per year

0

2

4

6

8

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Add. layers per year

Immersion Exposures

Average NAND immersion layers per year

Source: ASML Marketing (03/11) 300mm wafers only

Page 16: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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Logic

Page 17: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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IDMs

transfer leading edge process to foundries in time

Source: ASML Marketing (3/11), Gartner (2/11)

130 nm 90 nm 65 nm 45 nm 32 nm 28/22 nmIntel Intel Intel Intel Intel IntelAMD AMD AMD AMD IBM STMIBM IBM IBM IBM STM Samsung

Toshiba Toshiba Toshiba Toshiba NECSTM STM STM STM Samsung

TI TI TI TI PanasonicFujitsu Fujitsu Fujitsu Fujitsu Renesas

NEC NEC NEC NEC Crolles AllianceSamsung Samsung Samsung Samsung

Sony Sony Panasonic PanasonicPanasonic Panasonic Renesas RenesasRenesas Renesas Freescale Crolles AllianceInfineon Infineon Crolles AllianceMotorola NXPHitachi CypressPhilips Freescale

Mitsubishi Crolles AllianceSiemens SharpCypress

FreescaleCrolles Alliance

AtmelAnalog Devices

On SemiRohm

NationalSanyoSharpTower

Based on public information

FOUNDRIES

Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node

Foundries

Page 18: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

/ Slide 18 PublicSource: IBS (10/2010)

Foundries expected to manufacture 92% of the WW leading-edge* logic wafers by 2014 vs. 69% in 2009

* Include Application Processors, ASSPs, FPGAs, GPUs

and other advanced logic manufactured at ≤90 nm

done

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% o

f Fou

ndry

Lea

ding

-Edg

e Lo

gic

Cap

acity

Waf

er D

eman

d [3

00 e

quiv

. KW

SM]

WW Leading-Edge LOGIC (without Intel) Wafer Demand Forecast and Split between Foundries and IDMs*

Total leading-edge demand (Foundries)

Total leading-edge demand (IDM) without Intel

Foundries % of total leading edge demand

Page 19: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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Number of immersion layers keeps increasing per node, per year for all logic devices

Source: ASML Marketing (03/11) 300mm wafers only

Node 9x,6x 9x, 6x 6x

,4x 6x, 4x 4x, 3x Node 6x, 4x 6x, 4x 4x, 3x 3x, 2x 2x, 1x

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Add. layers per year [300mm only]

Immersion Exposures [300mm only]

Average Logic +DSP +MCU immersion layers per year 

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Add. layers per year

Immersion Exposures

Average MPU immersion layers per year

Page 20: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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Logic lithography requires 4.5X Euro investment in ASML immersion scanner vs

NAND for same size wafer start fab

at current nodes

45k wafers/monthAll scenarios are based on “typical” process using 2011 system productivity

levels. Customers process and wafer start requirements will vary.

120k wafers/month

3xnm NAND

29 litho layers

ArFiArF

KrFKrF

ArF I-LineI-Line

KrFKrF

I-LineI-Line

KrF I-LineI-LineI-Line

ArFiArFiArFiArFi

I-LineI-LineI-Line

KrFKrF

ArFi

KrFKrFKrFKrFKrFKrFKrFKrFKrFKrF

I-LineI-LineI-Line

ArF

240M Euroimmersion

spend

4xnm Logic

ArFi

39 litho layers

KrFKrF

I-LineI-Line

KrFKrFKrF

KrFArFiArFiArFiArFiArFiArFi

KrFKrF

ArFiArFiArFi

KrFKrFKrFKrF

400M Euroimmersion

spend1080M Euro for equiv.

wafer starts

Page 21: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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World-wide under-investment in advanced logic capacity requires a structural catch up

Source: ASML Marketing (3/11), Gartner (2/11) (forecast)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Capital Intensity

Foundry Capital Intensity

Capital Intensity

Page 22: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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Sector Review•

Memory sectors appear to be under investing in litho to forecasted demand levels. DRAM pricing is stable and may turn in manufacturers favor. Both DRAM & NAND are expected to show shortages during 2H/11.

If simulated memory demand levels cannot be delivered in 2011 an

additional 400 M€

memory investments can be expected in 2012.Logic is beginning a possible return to past historic capital intensity levels. Real demand and competition drives spend. Strong leading-edge logic/foundry investments during 2010 & 2011 may not create excess capacity, depending on overall efficiency/demand in this sector but also on recent 200 mm capacity retirements, which are under detailed investigation.

MPU continues on 2 year manufacturing node transition schedule.

Page 23: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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Products/Technology

Page 24: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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YEAR200720082009201020112012201320142015 11 / 22

LOGICNode

/ HP [nm]

45 / 7040 / 70

22 / 4032 / 50

22 / 35 DPT15 / 30

28 / 50

MPUNode

/ HP [nm]45 / 80

32 / 60

DRAM

65

NAND

55

Node = HP [nm] Node = HP [nm]

22

28

4235

5552

22

18

12

2838

25

20

15

32

45

Expected customer lithography roadmap by sector Manufacturing insertion timing

EUVSingle exposure

Double patterningie.,Spacer

Double patterning

LELE

Source: ASML Marketing (4/10)

EUV INSERTION TIME FAVORED BY DESIGN LIMITATIONS, COST AND PROCESS CONTROL REQUIREMENTS OF DOUBLE PATTERNING, MAKING EUV PROCESS OF CHOICE WHEN ACHIEVING ITS COST TARGETS

15/30

Page 25: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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Leading Position in Immersion and EUV

Source: ASML

Immersion Lithography Leader Installed Base >239 Systems

at 22 Customers, across all sectors and geographies

Pilot Production EUV for 22nm and beyond

6 systems shipping to all sectorsthru 2011

NXT:1950i

NXE:3100

Page 26: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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Technology -

EUV

Orders received for 9 NXE:3300 production systems to be delivered in 2012 EUV confirmed to be the most likely lithography platform to continue Moore’s law to beyond 2020

NXE: 3300

Page 27: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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ASML EUV Product Roadmap NXE:3300 numerical aperture increased to 0.33

* Requires <7 nm resist diffusion length

2006 2010 2012 2013Proto System NXE:3100 NXE:3300B NXE:3300C

Resolution 32 nm 27 nm 22 nm 18/16* nm

NA / σ 0.25 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.8 0.33 / 0.2-0.9 0.33 / OAI

Overlay (DCO/MMO) < 7

nm < 4/7

nm < 3/5

nm < 2.5/4.5

nm

Throughput W/hr 4 W/hr 60 W/hr 125 W/hr 150 W/hr

Dose, Source 5 mJ/cm2, ~8 W 10 mJ/cm2, >100 W 15 mJ/cm2, >250 W 15 mJ/cm2, >350 W

Main improvements1)

New EUV platform: NXE 2)

Improved low flare optics 3)

New high sigma illuminator4)

New high power source5)

Dual stages

Main improvements1)

New high NA 6 mirror lens2)

New high efficiency illuminator3)

Off-axis illumination optional4)

Source power increase5)

Reduced footprint

Platform enhancements1)

Off-Axis illumination2)

Source power increase

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Source power progress 10x per year 60 W/hr still provides challenge

Timeline

0.1

1

10

100

1000

Q1/2009 Q1/2010 Q1/2011 end/2012

250W125wph

15mJ/cm2

~10W5wph

10mJ/cm2

~1W0.5wph

10mJ/cm2

end/2011

~105W60wph

10mJ/cm2

Sour

ce p

ower

[W]

Aggregate roadmaps of source suppliers

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Existing EUV offices & manufacturing, 8 cabins.

New EUV offices & manufacturing,15 cabins.

Construction of new EUV facilities has started Planned NXE production capacity increases ~3x

Page 30: Taiwan, Technology and Beyond Conference Bank of America ... · Logic (including Micro) & Analog IDMs: overview of INTERNAL manufacturing capability by technology node Foundries

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EUV is moving forward

ASML has 4 years of accumulated EUV field experience with 1st

generation EUV tools at research institutes in Belgium and the US

2nd

generation EUV NXE:3100 system shipment in progress, 1 system installed and used on customer production site 1 system in installation, 4 additional systems to ship the next half year

3th

generation EUV tool NXE:3300 in development, capable of printing features down to 16 nm in volume manufacturing

ASML has customer commitments for 10 NXE:3300 systems to be delivered starting in 2012

To meet future EUV demand, construction on the new EUV factory extension has started

Productivity roadmap remains significant challenge although major progress continued to be made by 3 source suppliers

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ASML Strategy and Focus

Continue the large R&D outlay to ensure leadership through high product differentiation and provide customers with enabling technologies

Improve profitability further by:

Improving product mix towards value added software support tools

Keeping fixed cost structure to a low break even point, while growing top line

Improving further operational performance, by reducing cycle times further, improving its yield and developing even stronger supplier partnerships

Continue to returning cash to investors through our existing dividend policy and current excess cash return program

Execute on revenue growth trajectory available to ASML in Semiconductor Lithography, and keep reviewing synergistic developments outside Semiconductors for potential limited investments

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