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Take Five: 5 reasons to worry about UK inflation

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Take Five: 5 reasons to worry about UK inflation. Presentation to M&G Inflation Conference London, 4 October 2011. R easons to worry about UK inflation. Inflation performance Global inflationary pressures Sterling Persistent services inflation The MPC. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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  • Reasons to worry about UK inflationInflation performanceGlobal inflationary pressuresSterlingPersistent services inflationThe MPC

  • UK inflation significantly above targetSource: Office for National Statistics% per annum increase in consumer prices index

    Chart1

    0.02424242420.021995 Jan

    0.02412545240.021995 Feb

    0.02647412760.021995 Mar

    0.02264600720.021995 Apr

    0.02497027350.021995 May

    0.02615933410.021995 Jun

    0.02631578950.021995 Jul

    0.02615933410.021995 Aug

    0.02969121140.021995 Sep

    0.02976190480.021995 Oct

    0.02853745540.021995 Nov

    0.02958579880.021995 Dec

    0.02721893490.021996 Jan

    0.02709069490.021996 Feb

    0.02579132470.021996 Mar

    0.02564102560.021996 Apr

    0.0243619490.021996 May

    0.02433371960.021996 Jun

    0.02331002330.021996 Jul

    0.0231749710.021996 Aug

    0.02306805070.021996 Sep

    0.0254335260.021996 Oct

    0.0254335260.021996 Nov

    0.02298850570.021996 Dec

    0.02073732720.021997 Jan

    0.01834862390.021997 Feb

    0.01714285710.021997 Mar

    0.01590909090.021997 Apr

    0.01472253680.021997 May

    0.01583710410.021997 Jun

    0.01936218680.021997 Jul

    0.01925254810.021997 Aug

    0.01803833150.021997 Sep

    0.01803833150.021997 Oct

    0.01916572720.021997 Nov

    0.01685393260.021997 Dec

    0.01467268620.021998 Jan

    0.01689189190.021998 Feb

    0.01685393260.021998 Mar

    0.01789709170.021998 Apr

    0.02120535710.021998 May

    0.01670378620.021998 Jun

    0.01452513970.021998 Jul

    0.01333333330.021998 Aug

    0.01439645630.021998 Sep

    0.01439645630.021998 Oct

    0.0143805310.021998 Nov

    0.01546961330.021998 Dec

    0.01668520580.021999 Jan

    0.01328903650.021999 Feb

    0.01657458560.021999 Mar

    0.01538461540.021999 Apr

    0.01311475410.021999 May

    0.01423877330.021999 Jun

    0.0132158590.021999 Jul

    0.01206140350.021999 Aug

    0.01200873360.021999 Sep

    0.01091703060.021999 Oct

    0.01090512540.021999 Nov

    0.01196953210.021999 Dec

    0.00765864330.022000 Jan

    0.00983606560.022000 Feb

    0.00652173910.022000 Mar

    0.00541125540.022000 Apr

    0.00539374330.022000 May

    0.00755939520.022000 Jun

    0.00869565220.022000 Jul

    0.00541711810.022000 Aug

    0.00970873790.022000 Sep

    0.00971922250.022000 Oct

    0.01078748650.022000 Nov

    0.00752688170.022000 Dec

    0.00868621060.022001 Jan

    0.00757575760.022001 Feb

    0.00863930890.022001 Mar

    0.01184068890.022001 Apr

    0.01609442060.022001 May

    0.01714898180.022001 Jun

    0.01508620690.022001 Jul

    0.01831896550.022001 Aug

    0.01282051280.022001 Sep

    0.01283422460.022001 Oct

    0.00853788690.022001 Nov

    0.01067235860.022001 Dec

    0.0161463940.022002 Jan

    0.0150375940.022002 Feb

    0.01605995720.022002 Mar

    0.01382978720.022002 Apr

    0.00844772970.022002 May

    0.00632244470.022002 Jun

    0.01061571130.022002 Jul

    0.01058201060.022002 Aug

    0.00949367090.022002 Sep

    0.01267159450.022002 Oct

    0.01481481480.022002 Nov

    0.01689545930.022002 Dec

    0.01377118640.022003 Jan

    0.01587301590.022003 Feb

    0.01475237090.022003 Mar

    0.01469045120.022003 Apr

    0.0125654450.022003 May

    0.01047120420.022003 Jun

    0.01365546220.022003 Jul

    0.01361256540.022003 Aug

    0.01462904910.022003 Sep

    0.01355578730.022003 Oct

    0.01355578730.022003 Nov

    0.01246105920.022003 Dec

    0.0135841170.022004 Jan

    0.01250.022004 Feb

    0.01142263760.022004 Mar

    0.01137538780.022004 Apr

    0.01447776630.022004 May

    0.01658031090.022004 Jun

    0.01347150260.022004 Jul

    0.01342975210.022004 Aug

    0.01132852730.022004 Sep

    0.0123456790.022004 Oct

    0.01440329220.022004 Nov

    0.01641025640.022004 Dec

    0.01649484540.022005 Jan

    0.01646090530.022005 Feb

    0.01950718690.022005 Mar

    0.01942740290.022005 Apr

    0.01936799180.022005 May

    0.01936799180.022005 Jun

    0.02351738240.022005 Jul

    0.02344546380.022005 Aug

    0.02443991850.022005 Sep

    0.02337398370.022005 Oct

    0.02129817440.022005 Nov

    0.0191725530.022005 Dec

    0.01926977690.022006 Jan

    0.02125506070.022006 Feb

    0.01812688820.022006 Mar

    0.02006018050.022006 Apr

    0.0220.022006 May

    0.0250.022006 Jun

    0.0239760240.022006 Jul

    0.02490039840.022006 Aug

    0.02385685880.022006 Sep

    0.02482621650.022006 Oct

    0.02681231380.022006 Nov

    0.02970297030.022006 Dec

    0.02686567160.022007 Jan

    0.02775024780.022007 Feb

    0.03066271020.022007 Mar

    0.02753195670.022007 Apr

    0.02544031310.022007 May

    0.02439024390.022007 Jun

    0.01853658540.022007 Jul

    0.01749271140.022007 Aug

    0.01747572820.022007 Sep

    0.02034883720.022007 Oct

    0.02127659570.022007 Nov

    0.02115384620.022007 Dec

    0.02228682170.020.033

    0.0250723240.020.033

    0.02399232250.020.033

    0.02966507180.020.033

    0.03339694660.020.033

    0.03809523810.020.033

    0.04406130270.020.033

    0.04775549190.020.033

    0.0524809160.020.033

    0.0446343780.020.033

    0.0407196970.020.033

    0.03107344630.020.033

    0.03033175360.020.033

    0.03104421450.020.033

    0.02905342080.020.033

    0.02323420070.020.033

    0.02216066480.020.033

    0.01834862390.020.033

    0.01743119270.020.033

    0.01549680950.020.033

    0.01087941980.020.033

    0.01545454550.020.033

    0.01910828030.020.033

    0.02831050230.020.033

    0.03403863850.020.033

    0.03010948910.020.033

    0.03406193080.020.033

    0.03723887380.020.033

    0.03342366760.020.033

    0.03243243240.020.033

    0.03065825070.020.033

    0.03141831240.020.033

    0.03049327350.020.033

    0.03133393020.020.033

    0.03392857140.020.033

    0.03730017760.020.033

    0.04003558720.020.033

    0.04371302040.020.033

    0.04043479260.020.033

    0.04465849390.020.033

    0.04491783220.020.033

    0.04205114660.020.033

    0.04426379590.020.033

    0.04504358560.020.033

    Value

    Target

    Ave 2008-11

    Sheet1

    ValueTargetAve 2008-11Average 97-08

    1995 Jan2.4%2%5.5%

    1995 Feb2.4%2%5.5%

    1995 Mar2.6%2%5.5%

    1995 Apr2.3%2%5.5%

    1995 May2.5%2%5.5%

    1995 Jun2.6%2%5.5%

    1995 Jul2.6%2%5.5%

    1995 Aug2.6%2%5.5%

    1995 Sep3.0%2%5.5%

    1995 Oct3.0%2%5.5%

    1995 Nov2.9%2%5.5%

    1995 Dec3.0%2%5.5%

    1996 Jan2.7%2%5.5%

    1996 Feb2.7%2%5.5%

    1996 Mar2.6%2%5.5%

    1996 Apr2.6%2%5.5%

    1996 May2.4%2%5.5%

    1996 Jun2.4%2%5.5%

    1996 Jul2.3%2%5.5%

    1996 Aug2.3%2%5.5%

    1996 Sep2.3%2%5.5%

    1996 Oct2.5%2%5.5%

    1996 Nov2.5%2%5.5%

    1996 Dec2.3%2%5.5%

    1997 Jan2.1%2%5.5%

    1997 Feb1.8%2%5.5%

    1997 Mar1.7%2%5.5%

    1997 Apr1.6%2%5.5%

    1997 May1.5%2%5.5%

    1997 Jun1.6%2%5.5%

    1997 Jul1.9%2%5.5%

    1997 Aug1.9%2%5.5%

    1997 Sep1.8%2%5.5%

    1997 Oct1.8%2%5.5%

    1997 Nov1.9%2%5.5%

    1997 Dec1.7%2%5.5%

    1998 Jan1.5%2%5.5%

    1998 Feb1.7%2%5.5%

    1998 Mar1.7%2%5.5%

    1998 Apr1.8%2%5.5%

    1998 May2.1%2%5.5%

    1998 Jun1.7%2%5.5%

    1998 Jul1.5%2%5.5%

    1998 Aug1.3%2%5.5%

    1998 Sep1.4%2%5.5%

    1998 Oct1.4%2%5.5%

    1998 Nov1.4%2%5.5%

    1998 Dec1.5%2%5.5%

    1999 Jan1.7%2%5.5%

    1999 Feb1.3%2%5.5%

    1999 Mar1.7%2%5.5%

    1999 Apr1.5%2%5.5%

    1999 May1.3%2%5.5%

    1999 Jun1.4%2%5.5%

    1999 Jul1.3%2%5.5%

    1999 Aug1.2%2%5.5%

    1999 Sep1.2%2%5.5%

    1999 Oct1.1%2%

    1999 Nov1.1%2%

    1999 Dec1.2%2%

    2000 Jan0.8%2%

    2000 Feb1.0%2%

    2000 Mar0.7%2%

    2000 Apr0.5%2%

    2000 May0.5%2%

    2000 Jun0.8%2%

    2000 Jul0.9%2%

    2000 Aug0.5%2%

    2000 Sep1.0%2%

    2000 Oct1.0%2%

    2000 Nov1.1%2%

    2000 Dec0.8%2%

    2001 Jan0.9%2%

    2001 Feb0.8%2%

    2001 Mar0.9%2%

    2001 Apr1.2%2%

    2001 May1.6%2%

    2001 Jun1.7%2%

    2001 Jul1.5%2%

    2001 Aug1.8%2%

    2001 Sep1.3%2%

    2001 Oct1.3%2%

    2001 Nov0.9%2%

    2001 Dec1.1%2%

    2002 Jan1.6%2%

    2002 Feb1.5%2%

    2002 Mar1.6%2%

    2002 Apr1.4%2%

    2002 May0.8%2%

    2002 Jun0.6%2%

    2002 Jul1.1%2%

    2002 Aug1.1%2%

    2002 Sep0.9%2%

    2002 Oct1.3%2%

    2002 Nov1.5%2%

    2002 Dec1.7%2%

    2003 Jan1.4%2%

    2003 Feb1.6%2%

    2003 Mar1.5%2%

    2003 Apr1.5%2%

    2003 May1.3%2%

    2003 Jun1.0%2%

    2003 Jul1.4%2%

    2003 Aug1.4%2%

    2003 Sep1.5%2%

    2003 Oct1.4%2%

    2003 Nov1.4%2%

    2003 Dec1.2%2%

    2004 Jan1.4%2%

    2004 Feb1.3%2%

    2004 Mar1.1%2%

    2004 Apr1.1%2%

    2004 May1.4%2%

    2004 Jun1.7%2%

    2004 Jul1.3%2%

    2004 Aug1.3%2%

    2004 Sep1.1%2%

    2004 Oct1.2%2%

    2004 Nov1.4%2%

    2004 Dec1.6%2%

    2005 Jan1.6%2%

    2005 Feb1.6%2%

    2005 Mar2.0%2%

    2005 Apr1.9%2%

    2005 May1.9%2%

    2005 Jun1.9%2%

    2005 Jul2.4%2%

    2005 Aug2.3%2%

    2005 Sep2.4%2%

    2005 Oct2.3%2%

    2005 Nov2.1%2%

    2005 Dec1.9%2%

    2006 Jan1.9%2%

    2006 Feb2.1%2%

    2006 Mar1.8%2%

    2006 Apr2.0%2%

    2006 May2.2%2%

    2006 Jun2.5%2%

    2006 Jul2.4%2%

    2006 Aug2.5%2%

    2006 Sep2.4%2%

    2006 Oct2.5%2%

    2006 Nov2.7%2%

    2006 Dec3.0%2%

    2007 Jan2.7%2%

    2007 Feb2.8%2%

    2007 Mar3.1%2%

    2007 Apr2.8%2%

    2007 May2.5%2%

    2007 Jun2.4%2%

    2007 Jul1.9%2%

    2007 Aug1.7%2%

    2007 Sep1.7%2%

    2007 Oct2.0%2%

    2007 Nov2.1%2%

    2007 Dec2.1%2%

    2008 Jan2.2%2%3.3%

    2008 Feb2.5%2%3.3%

    2008 Mar2.4%2%3.3%

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