For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
Target-date fund
trends and innovation
2For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
Agenda
Target-date
fund (TDF)
landscape
and trends
What’s next
in TDF
innovation?
3For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
TDF landscape
and trends
4For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
A brief history of the target-date industry
Annual target-date assets under management (AUM)
$0B
$300B
$600B
$900B
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Asse
ts u
nd
er
ma
na
ge
me
nt in
$B
Vanguard Fidelity Investments T. Rowe Price BlackRock JPMorgan Other
2003
AUM: $25B
Vanguard enters
target-date industry
1997
AUM: $2B
Fidelity enters the market and
owns 50%+ of it until 2006
2013
AUM: $850B
Vanguard overtakes Fidelity
for market leadership
2006
AUM: $126B
Pension Protection Act
passed
1993
AUM: $0
The first TDFs are launched
Sources: Vanguard, Morningstar, company public filings, as of December 2013.
5For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
Institutional pricing is gaining ground through the use of collective trusts
Target-date funds versus collective trusts in retail and institutional assets
(in $M)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Dolla
rs in
$M
Mutual funds Collective trusts
Note: Excludes custom TDFs.
Sources: Greenwich survey of plan sponsors, May 2014; Morningstar, Pension & Investments, Vanguard, company public filings.
30%
Approximately one-fourth of plan sponsors
with more than $100M prefer CITs
6For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
$0.0B
$10.0B
$20.0B
$30.0B
$40.0B
$50.0B
$60.0B
$70.0B
$80.0B
$90.0B
$100.0B
Index-based TDFs are gaining ground
2012 was the first year that passive cash flows outpaced active:
First year where
passive
outpaced active
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Active Other passive Vanguard
Sources: Greenwich survey of industry wide plan sponsors, May 2014; Vanguard; and Morningstar, as of December 2013.
$0B
$10B
$20B
$30B
$40B
$50B
$60B
$70B
$80B
$90B
$100B
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
72% of plan sponsors with more than $100M
prefer the use of passive funds in a TDF
7For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
The number of TDF options has grown significantly since 2006
Number of TDF options available in the marketplace and top 5 share
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sh
are
of to
p 5
co
mp
etito
rs*N
um
be
r o
f T
DF
op
tio
ns
Now available Closed Share of top 5
Note: Top 5 competitors: Vanguard, Fidelity, BlackRock, T.Rowe Price, and JP Morgan.
Sources: Greenwich survey of industry wide plan sponsors, May 2014; Vanguard; and Morningstar, company public filings, as of March 2014.
Two-thirds of plan sponsors and consultants believe there will be
significant changes to the design of target-date investment solutions
that will make them a better investment option
8For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
Alternatives are gaining more attention than traction
Percentage of DC funds using TDF strategies that include select alternatives
(among the top 200 plans)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Private equity Annuities Hedge funds Real estateequity
Commodities REITs TIPS
2011 2012
Adoption considerations
Tailwinds
• Potential diversification
• Single-fund-solution structure
protects misuse
Headwinds
• Higher costs
• Implementation concerns
• Liquidity
Sources: CNBC, Pension & Investments, McKinsey: The Mainstreaming of Alternative Investments: Fueling the Next Wave of Growth in Asset
Management, 2012, Plansponsor.com.
9For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
Most custom TDFs still have a meaningful performance hurdle
Costs by TDF selection: Options for clients with $1B+ in TDF assets
0
20
40
60
80
100
Vanguard TRT Plus Industry-wide indexoff-the-shelf TDF
Indexed custom TDF Active custom TDF Industry-wide activeoff-the-shelf TDF
Cost in
ba
sis
po
ints
Investments Glide path construction and administration
7 bps
~17 bps
~53 bps
94 bps
12 bps
Source: Vanguard.
10For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
What’s next in
TDF innovation?
11For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
When innovating, where do we spend our time?
Focus on the elements that drive investor returns
Source: Vanguard, 2012.
79%
86%
90%
78%
83%
86%
83%
86%
87%
Participant
behavior
Plan designReturnsInvestor
returns
Savings and cost
matter mostThe glide path drives
investment returns
Cost Glide path
Probability of a positive balance
at age 85
Saving rates
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Self-directedinvestors
Managedaccounts
TDFs
A 50/50 mix at retirement
matches risk tolerance
Distribution of equity allocation
at age 65
Factors driving long term
return variability
1 2 3
88%
12% Security selection and market-timing
Asset allocation the glide path
-10% +10%Baseline -10% +10%Baseline-20% Baseline-10%
12For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
What’s on the horizon for Vanguard?
Constant debate, not constant change
Inception
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
• Adds exposure to
Vanguard Emerging
Markets Index Fund
• Vanguard increases
minimum equity
allocations in the funds
from 20% to 30%
• Vanguard increases
international equity
allocation in the funds
from 20% to 30% of
total equity
• Replaces the three
underlying international
equity index funds
(Europe, Pacific, and
Emerging Markets)
with Vanguard Total
International Stock
Index Fund
• Vanguard adds a
20% fixed income
allocation to
Vanguard Total
International Bond
Index Fund
• Replaces Inflation-
protected
Securities Fund
with Short-term
Inflation-protected
Securities Fund
• Eliminates Prime
Money Market
Fund and
reallocated to the
other fixed
income
components
Vanguard launches
Target Retirement
Trusts
Vanguard announces
benchmark changes
1 2 3Type of change
• Broadening global
exposure
• Match participant
behavior
• Simplification
Type of change
• Driving costs down
Recent research
and today’s debates
• What’s the right
mix of US/ex-US
stocks & bonds?
• What level of human
capital empirically
exists for investors
in their 60s and
70s?
• Does market-cap
weighted fixed
income exposure
still make sense?
• Do liquid
alternatives have
a place in a TDF?
13For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
Important information
For more information about Vanguard funds, visit vanguard.com or call 800-523-1036 to obtain a prospectus.
Investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses, and other important information about a fund are contained in
the prospectus; read and consider it carefully before investing.
Investments in Target Retirement Funds are subject to the risks of their underlying funds. The year in the fund name refers to
the approximate year (the target date) when an investor in the fund would retire and leave the workforce. The fund will gradually
shift its emphasis from more aggressive investments to more conservative ones based on its target date. An investment in the
Target Retirement Fund is not guaranteed at any time, including on or after the target date.
Vanguard Target Retirement Trusts are not mutual funds. They are collective trusts available only to tax-qualified plans and
their eligible participants. The collective trust mandates are managed by Vanguard Fiduciary Trust Company, a subsidiary of
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. Diversification does not ensure a profit
or protect against a loss.
An investment in a money market fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other
government agency. Although a money market fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1 per share,
it is possible to lose money by investing in such a fund.
Investments in bonds are subject to interest rate, credit, and inflation risk.
Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund is subject to currency hedging risk, which is the chance that currency hedging
transactions may not perfectly offset the fund's foreign currency exposures and may eliminate any chance for a fund to benefit
from favorable fluctuations in those currencies. The fund will incur expenses to hedge its currency exposures.
Stocks of companies based in emerging markets are subject to national and regional political and economic risks and to
the risk of currency fluctuations. These risks are especially high in emerging markets.
Investments in stocks or bonds issued by non-U.S. companies are subject to risks including country/regional risk and
currency risk.
© 2014 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor. TRFPIBPR 062014
14For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors.
Important information
For more information about Vanguard funds, visit vanguard.com or call 800-523-1036 to obtain a prospectus.
Investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses, and other important information about a fund are contained in
the prospectus; read and consider it carefully before investing.
Investments in Target Retirement Funds are subject to the risks of their underlying funds. The year in the fund name refers to
the approximate year (the target date) when an investor in the fund would retire and leave the workforce. The fund will gradually
shift its emphasis from more aggressive investments to more conservative ones based on its target date. An investment in the
Target Retirement Fund is not guaranteed at any time, including on or after the target date.
Vanguard Target Retirement Trusts are not mutual funds. They are collective trusts available only to tax-qualified plans and
their eligible participants. The collective trust mandates are managed by Vanguard Fiduciary Trust Company, a subsidiary of
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. Diversification does not ensure a profit
or protect against a loss.
An investment in a money market fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other
government agency. Although a money market fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1 per share,
it is possible to lose money by investing in such a fund.
Investments in bonds are subject to interest rate, credit, and inflation risk.
Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund is subject to currency hedging risk, which is the chance that currency hedging
transactions may not perfectly offset the fund's foreign currency exposures and may eliminate any chance for a fund to benefit
from favorable fluctuations in those currencies. The fund will incur expenses to hedge its currency exposures.
Stocks of companies based in emerging markets are subject to national and regional political and economic risks and to
the risk of currency fluctuations. These risks are especially high in emerging markets.
Investments in stocks or bonds issued by non-U.S. companies are subject to risks including country/regional risk and
currency risk.
© 2014 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor. TRFPIBPR 062014