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Target setting for the SEE 2020 Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategystrategy
Jahorina, Bosnia and HerzegovinaSeptember 11th 2012
1
Agenda
• Introduction and objectives
• Target setting for the Overall Strategic Goals
• Target setting for Integrated Growth
• Target setting for Smart Growth
• Target setting for Sustainable Growth
• Target setting for Inclusive Growth
• Target setting for Governance for Growth
2
Transforming the SEE 2020 Vision
SEE 2020 Vision adopted at the SEE Ministerial Conference:
i. Integrated growth to deepen regional trade and investment linkages;
ii. Smart growth – innovation and competition based on value-added rather than labour costs
iii. Sustainable growth – private sector competitiveness, entrepreneurship, greener and energy-efficient development;
iv. Inclusive growth – skills development, employment creation & labour market participation by all
v. Governance for growth – improve capacity of public administrations to strengthen the rule of law and reduce corruption
A set of headline targets to be adopted at the next Ministerial
3
The proposed process
Nov 2011
Apr2012
Jun2012
Sep2012
Nov2012
Vision adopted
First draft targetsTargets discussed
Second draft targets
Written procedure & third draft
SEE Min
SEE IC
SEE IC
Final draft targets
Targets adopted
SEE Min
4
Task Force Meeting
2nd Task Force Meeting
• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and
servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed
An initial set of target indicators
5
• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness
• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and
servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed
An initial set of target indicators
6
• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness
7
Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU
Source: World Bank
46%
8
Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU
Sources: IMF, World Bank and SEE economiesYear: 2010
9
Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services
Source: World Bank
600,000
250,000
10Sources: World Bank and SEE economiesYear: 2010
Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services
Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit
11Source: World Bank
Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit
12Sources: World Bank and SEE economiesYear: 2010
• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and
servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed
An initial set of target indicators
13
• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness
Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services)
14
Sources: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database and SEE economiesYears: 2004 and 2009For 2004, the exchange rate used was 1.324$=1€
Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services)
15
Sources: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database and SEE economiesYear: OECD data for 2009; ALB (goods only), BIH, HRV, MKD, and SRB (goods only) submitted data for 2010
Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows
16Source: World Bank
17Source: World Bank
Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows
15, 000
18Sources: World Bank and SEE economiesYear: 2010
Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows
• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and
servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed
An initial set of target indicators
19
• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness
Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed
20Source: World Bank
?31,000
21Sources: World Bank and SEE economiesYear: 2010
Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed
• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and
servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed
An initial set of target indicators
22
• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness
Sustainable Growth: Growth of Enterprise Creation
23
Source: SEE economiesYear: 2010; ALB submitted data for 2011
Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita
24Source: World Bank
25
Source: World BankYear: 2010
Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita
Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita
26Sources: World Bank (both for the export data and the population data) and SEE economiesYear: 2010
• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and
servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed
An initial set of target indicators
27
• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness
Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate
EU2020 target: an increase of employment in the category 20-64 year olds 70.3% to 75% in 2020
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46%
Sources: World Bank; data for Kosovo* found from statistical office
Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate
EU2020 target: an increase of employment in the category 20-64 year olds 70.3% to 75% in 2020
29
Sources: World Bank (National statistics office for Kosovo*) and SEE economiesYear: 2008; ALB submitted 2009; HRV, MKD, MNE, and SRB submitted 2010 data
Inclusive Growth: Increase of rate of population with tertiary education attainment
30Source: EurostatNote: SEE average contains HRV, MKD, ROU, BLG
EU2020 target
36%
Inclusive Growth: Increase of rate of population with tertiary education attainment
31
Sources: Eurostat (Proportion of the population aged 30 to 34 having tertiary educational attainment) and SEE economiesEconomies’ data (proportion of population 15+)Year: 2011; MNE submitted data for 2008; MKD and HRV gave data for 2010; SRB submitted data for 2002
EU2020 target
• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and
servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed
An initial set of target indicators
32
• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness
Governance for Growth: Increase Government Effectiveness
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Source: World BankYear: 2010
Thank you for your Thank you for your attentionattention
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