18
Tashkent, WB Seminar 19 May 2010 Prof. V.A. Dukhovny Future of water availability and water balance of the Aral Sea Basin to 2030 – impact of climate change and different factors
Tashkent, WB Seminar19 May 2010
Prof. V.A. Dukhovny
Future of water availability and water balance of the Aral Sea Basin to 2030
– impact of climate change and different factors
Forecasts of the future in the basin
UNESCO’s Vision (J. Bogardi)BAU, agricultural production priority, industrial development
priority
ASBmm model (Resource Analysis / SIC ICWC)BAU, neutral, optimistic
GEF, Project «Water resources management in ASB»
Optimistic, national
New ASBMM model
What can we expect in the future?External destabilizing factors
Population growth; Urban growth and increasing industrial
needs; Changing crop patterns; Climate change; Low agricultural output prices at the
world markets; Increasing energy pressure; Probable growth of water diversions by
Afghanistan.
Comparison of main parameters indifferent regional scenarios for 2020
Indicator
OptimisticASBMM
NeutralASBMM
BAUASBMM
NationalGEF
UNESCO Actual 2007 Actual 2008
Irrigated land, thousand ha 8504.00 8451.00 8008.00 11185.00 8507.00 8444 8516
Irrigated land per person, ha 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.18 0.16 0.184 0.181
Total water use by all sectors 91.10 101.80 109.10 145.30 93.0 105.18 88.29
incl. irrigation 80.10 90.90 96.80 133.0 87.0 82.62 66.31
industry 3.29 2.55 3.05 7.63 2.50 2.80 2.70
water supply 4.39 4.92 5.88 5.24 3.4 3.99 4.88
Average calorie consumption per day
3.59 2.77 1.83 5.05 3.90 2.8
Calorie export/import, M per year
11418.00 -4519.00 -25787.00 48000.00 19020.00 almost 0
Population growth rates, % 0.98 1.23-1.44 1.90 2.30 1.00 2.0 1.97
GNP growth, % for the whole period
308.2 221.5 160.2 800 141 163
Water use per hectare, thousand m3/ha
9.40 11.0 12.00 12.90 11.10 9.8 7.78
Total per capita water consumption a year, m3
1710.00 1910.00 1818.00 2416.00 1740.00 2046 1892
Evaluating the future water resources of the Aral Sea Basin, km3 (SIC-ICWC)
Scenario В2 Scenario А2
Normal year 2008 (dry year) average year dry year average year dry year
1. Surface runoff, incl.: 116,483 86,762 110,933 82,600 106,695 80,021 the Amu Darya River 79,280 59,460 73,730 55,298 71,352 53,514 the Syr Darya River 37,203 27,302 37,203 27,302 35,343 26,507 2. Groundwater: 16,891 13,572.8 16,472 13,178 15,747 12,598 the Amu Darya River 5,989 4,791.2* 5,570 4,456 5,390 4,312 the Syr Darya River 10,902 8,721.6 10,902 8,721 10,357 8,286 3. Return water: 32,450/21,580 12,948** 20,899 12,539 20,114 12,008 the Amu Darya River 19060/9730 5,838 9,049 5,429 8,757 5,254 the Syr Darya River 13,390/11,850 7,110 11,850 7,110 11,257 6,754 4. Water losses in open channels: 13,900 13,900 13,900 13,900 13,900 13,900 the Amu Darya River 8,900 8,900 8,900 8,900 8,900 8,900 the Syr Darya River 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5. Environmental requirements: 8.0 5,200 8,000 5,700 8,000 5,700 the Amu Darya River 4,800 3.200 4.800 3.200 4.800 3.200 the Syr Darya River 3.200 2.000 3.200 2.500 3.200 2.500 Total water resources that can be used
133,054 94,122.8 126,404 88,717 120,656 85,027
the Amu Darya River 81,299 57,989.2* 74,645 53,083 71,799 50,980 the Syr Darya River 51,755 36,133.6 51,755 35,633 48,757 34,047
Combination of climate scenarios and water management scenarios (SIC-ICWC)
Water management scenario
Climate scenarios
Usual natural runoff Scenario В2 Scenario А2
average year
dry year average year
dry year average year
dry year
Total 133,054 94,123 126,404 88,717 120,556 85,027
the Amu Darya River 81,299 57,989 74,649 53,083 71,799 50,980
the Syr Darya River 51,755 36,134 51,755 35,633 48,757 34,047
Hydropower (irrigation regime W1):
126,404 95,833 120,556 89,985
the Amu Darya River 74,649 56,200 71,799 53,850
the Syr Darya River 51,755 39,633 48,757 36,635
Hydropower (hydropower regime W2):
119,274 81,264 113,996 76,386
the Amu Darya River 69,719 45,831 67,439 43,551
the Syr Darya River 49,555 35,433 46,557 32,835
Case study of Syrdarya basin 2002…2008!
Water releases from Toktogul reservoir
2,2
1,8 2,2 3,
12,
9 3,3
3,0
2,5
2,4 2,
92,
2 2,7
4,4
3,9 4,
9 5,1 6,
1 7,5 8,
28,
1 8,3
7,1 8,
0 8,8
8,4
7,6 8,
5 8,7 9,0
9,0 9,4 9,7
7,5 8,8
7,4 5,
37,
19,
111
,28,
99,
37,
89,
03,
68,
810
,96,
88,
86,
54,
56,
7 6,3
6,2 6,0
3,7
5,1
6,5
5,9
3,6
4,9
6,2
5,2 5,3 5,
90,
89,7
10,6
8,2
7,5
10,1
12,0
14,5
11,8
11,9
10,2
11,8
5,8
11,5
15,2
10,7
13,8
11,6
10,6
14,2 14
,514
,314
,410
,813
,015
,314
,311
,313
,415
,014
,214
,3 15,3
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
1975
-197
619
76-1
977
1977
-197
819
78-1
979
1979
-198
019
80-1
981
1981
-198
219
82-1
983
1983
-198
419
84-1
985
1985
-198
619
86-1
987
1987
-198
819
88-1
989
1989
-199
019
90-1
991
1991
-199
219
92-1
993
1993
-199
419
94-1
995
1995
-199
619
96-1
997
1997
-199
819
98-1
999
1999
-200
020
00-2
001
2001
-200
220
02-2
003
2003
-200
420
04-2
005
2005
-200
620
06-2
007
2007
-200
8
Years
billion m3
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
growing
non-growing
Inflow to Toktogul reservoir since 1975 till 2008
2,3
2,3
2,4
2,6
2,7
2,4 2,7
2,5
2,6
2,4
2,4
2,5 3,
1
3,1
2,8
2,7
2,8
3,0
3,1
3,0
2,6 3,2
2,7 3,
3
3,5
3,4
3,3 3,7
3,8
3,5
3,2
3,1
2,5
6,90
17 8,25
48
9,22
13
9,95
1
8,15
72
9,23
61
5,89
16 8,48
55
8,43
56
7,83
67
7,02
16
12,0
929 13
,387
3
7,30
38
11,3
4
7,73
64 8,97
32 10,7
427
11,9
102
8,00
17 10,1
94
7,91
97
11,5
534
11,6
182
9,04
41
9,35
92
13,5
587
12,0
461
10,8
49
10,3
631
9,50
17
8,89
17
0,7
9
11
12
13
11
12
9
11 11
10
9
15
16
10
14
10
12
14
15
11
13
11
14
15
13 13
17
16
15
14
13
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1975
-197
6
1976
-197
7
1977
-197
8
1978
-197
9
1979
-198
0
1980
-198
1
1981
-198
2
1982
-198
3
1983
-198
4
1984
-198
5
1985
-198
6
1986
-198
7
1987
-198
8
1988
-198
9
1989
-199
0
1990
-199
1
1991
-199
2
1992
-199
3
1993
-199
4
1994
-199
5
1995
-199
6
1996
-199
7
1997
-199
8
1998
-199
9
1999
-200
0
2000
-200
1
2001
-200
2
2002
-200
3
2003
-200
4
2004
-200
5
2005
-200
6
2006
-200
7
2007
-200
8
Years
Flo
w, k
m3
вегетация
межвегетация
Water availability in Syrdarya 2008 Summer
Waternatural availabilit
yof mean long-termnorm, %
April May June July August Sept.
77 86 65 55 76 70
Delivery, %
Kazakhstan 150 147 86 44 58 178
Kyrgyzstan 105 64 57 60 67 81
Tajikistan 34 59 69 74 85 81
Uzbekistan 120 76 60 58 72 105
Water demand under the "optimistic option” over a 25-year period according to the WEMP (million m3)
The Amu Darya River The Syr Darya River The Aral Sea Basin average
year dry year average
year dry year average
year dry year
Total water consumption in all economic sectors Kazakhstan - - 8200 7093 8200 7093 Kyrgyzstan 100 86,5 4050 3503 4150 3589.5 Tajikistan 8400 7266 1900 1643.5 10300 8909.5 Turkmenistan 18810 16262 - - 18810 16262 Uzbekistan 29300 25344,5 17900 15480 47200 40824.5 Afghanistan 5000 4325 5000 4325 Losses in canals
5650 4667.25 3500 3027.5 9150 7694.75
With account of use ground waters
67260 57951.25 35550 30747.5 102810 88098.75
The same with climate change affects
73986 63746.4 39105 33821.7 113091 97568.1
Comparing the results of the ASBMM model with other predictions (SIC ICWC)
Option ASBMM Indicator Optimistic BAU National
WEMP optimum
IWRUPS
Irrigated farming Irrigated area, 000’ ha 8,500 8,500 9,400 8829.5 Gross irrigation rate, m3/ha 9,400 11,500 11,000 Irrigation water demand, mln. m3 79,900 97,750 103,400 86,820 Population, mln. people 59.0 69.0 77.0 67.0 Water m3/person or l/person/day 0.09/250 0.11/320 0.128/350 Total consumption 5,310 7,500 9,856 9,900 Industry 3,300 3,050 3,500 3,620 Other sectors 1,500 3,500 3,500 3,600 Total 90,000 111,800 120,260 102,810 104,530 Same plus Afghanistan 95,000 116,800 125,260 113,091* 109,530 Mean annual water resources 126,404 119,274 120,556 126,404 126,404 Water supply to the Aral Sea 39,400 2,474 -4704 13,313 16,674
IWRM principles
Equity, equality, openness and information awareness;
Management on the basis of basin hydrography;Public participation in management, planning,
maintenance, and financing;
Water conservation and water demand management;
Nature’s demand priority;
Monitoring and use of all kinds of water;Horizontal coordination of water users and vertical
coordination of water hierarchical levels;
Economic and financial stability of management.
Adoption of IWRM in the Fergana Valley
ЮФК. Фактическая водоподача. Вегетация
1053
925
871
816
643
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
SFC
Wate
r d
eli
very
, M
m3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Indicators of agricultural production improvement in the IWRM-Fergana Project
Indicator of improvement
Tajikistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan
Cotton Cotton Cotton Wheat
Reduced water delivery
33% 34% 17% 40%
Increased crop yields
18% 21% 25% 64%
Improved productivity
62% 69% 52% 96%
Impact of climatic factors
Climatic parameters
Impacts
Air temperature
The growing season extends Sowing dates - earlier sowing Conditions suitable for germination, phenological phases and growth Extremely high temperatures stop physiological processes in plants
+ +
± -
Air humidity Intensive evaporation Creates conditions for heat-and-moisture exchange essential for every specific crop
- +
Precipitation Soil moisture and humidity create natural moistening, conditions for growth Storm precipitation can impede germination and carrying out agricultural activities
+ -
Temperature, humidity and precipitation
Generally form plant evapotranspiration Change salinization processes
+ -
СО2 concentration Determine rate of photosynthesis, respiration Form biomass and productivity of crops
- +
Formation of azotobacter nodules on green gram roots
Farmer training in adapting to climate change
Training Seminar
Principal directions of adaptation
1. More precision long term forecast of water availability.
2. More accurate forecast of climatic and hydrological conditions.
3. Ability to get permanently climatic information.4. Multiyear regulation reservoirs.5. Water saving and implementation of IWRM.6. Training for adaptation.7. Increase second crop growing.8. Water resistant crops.9. Control of losses in rivers.
