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Taylor Captline Matthew Chadwell Hadd Francis. 41 companies 12.04% of S&P 500 13.06% of SIM...

Date post: 02-Jan-2016
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Taylor Captline Matthew Chadwell Hadd Francis
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Taylor CaptlineMatthew Chadwell

Hadd Francis

41 companies 12.04% of S&P 50013.06% of SIM Portfolio

Sector Industries include:Agricultural ProductsBrewersDistiller and VintersFood DistributorsHousehold ProductsHypermarkets and SupermarketsPackaged Foods and MeatsPersonal ProductsRetail – DrugsRetail – FoodSoft DrinksTobacco

Colgate Palmolive Terminal Discount Rate

$76.05 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12%

1% $86.95 $80.71 $75.21 $70.32 $65.96 $62.03 $58.49Terminal 2% $90.77 $83.95 $77.97 $72.69 $68.00 $63.81 $60.05

FCF 2% $95.14 $87.62 $81.08 $75.35 $70.28 $65.78 $61.76Growth 3% $100.19 $91.82 $84.60 $78.33 $72.83 $67.97 $63.65

Rate 3% $106.07 $96.66 $88.63 $81.71 $75.70 $70.42 $65.754% $113.03 $102.30 $93.28 $85.58 $78.94 $73.17 $68.104% $121.37 $108.98 $98.70 $90.04 $82.65 $76.29 $70.75

    Weights Target

DCF 25% $76.05

Forward P/E 25% $76.05

Price/Sales 25% $76.05

Price/CF 25% $76.05

TARGET PRICE $75.98

• Risk Free Rate: 3.71%• Market Premium: 7.00%• CAPM Discount Factor: 6.23%• I used 9.81%

59.73$ 9.00% 9.25% 9.50% 9.75% 10.00% 10.25%2.5% 56.55$ 54.17$ 51.97$ 49.92$ 48.01$ 46.24$ 3.0% 59.73 57.05 54.58 52.30 50.19 48.23 3.5% 63.48 60.43 57.63 55.06 52.70 50.51 4.0% 67.99 64.45 61.23 58.30 55.62 53.16 4.5% 73.49 69.31 65.56 62.16 59.08 56.27

Discount Rate

Ter

min

al F

CF

G

row

th

$57.58 Current: $50.59 Implied upside: 13.8%

H. J. Heinz Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacturing and marketing food products throughout the world. The company’s products include ketchup, condiments and sauces, frozen food, soups, beans and pasta meals, infant nutrition and other processed food products.

The company’s products are manufactured and packaged to provide safe, wholesome foods for consumers, as well as foodservice and institutional customers.

The company’s products are sold through its own sales organizations and through independent brokers, agents and distributors to chain, wholesale, cooperative and independent grocery accounts, convenience stores, bakeries, pharmacies, mass merchants, club stores, foodservice distributors and institutions, including hotels, restaurants, hospitals, health-care facilities, and certain government agencies.

WMT: 13.8% CL: 9.55% PM: 11.02% HNZ: 28%

  Current Weight Sell/Buy   New Weight

PM 2.42% 68bps 1.74%

   

CL 2.64% 68bps 1.69%

   

WMT 3.50% 68bps 2.82%

   

HNZ 0   102bps   1.02%


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