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Power Upgrade Project SNS1
September 21-22, 2005
TBM Cost Estimate
Cost Estimate Schedule Approach
Tom Mann
October 27, 2005
Power Upgrade Project SNS2
September 21-22, 2005
Cost Estimate Approach• Identify Scope
• Develop Work Breakdown Structure and WBS Dictionary
• Develop cost estimate
• Establish cost contingency needs based on risks
• Establish a cost range
• Develop resource-loaded schedule
Identify Scope
SNSPower
Upgrade3.0
R&D3.1
ProjectSupport
3.2
AcceleratorSystems
3.3
TargetSystems
3.4
FacilitiesConstruction
3.5
Pre Operations3.6
Power Upgrade Project SNS3
September 21-22, 2005
Work Breakdown Structure
Power Upgrade Project SNS4
September 21-22, 2005
Cost Estimate Approach
Cost Estimate Guidelines base on ITER
• Guidelines for Assembling the Cost Estimate, Schedule and Risks for Submittal of CD-1 for SNS Power Upgrade Project
• Objective: In support of the CD-1 decision planned for Fall 2005, it is necessary to develop and assemble a sustainable, reviewable cost estimate, schedule, and risk analysis for the SNS Power Upgrade Project (PUP). Your input to support this objective is needed no later than June 30.
• Background: On November 23, 2004, the Statement of Mission Need for Spallation Neutron Source Proton Beam Power Upgrade Non-Major Systems Acquisition was approved and stated: “The TPC (Total Project Cost) for an SNS power upgrade project has been roughly estimated to be in the $120 – 160 million range.” The document further states that there is “reasonable confidence in this range.” While the requirement for CD-1 is still for an estimate range, the level of detail to support the range must be greater than what currently exists.
• In general, your estimate must be defendable at an External Independent Review. The estimate should be realistic with a 50% confidence level, that is, there is a 50% chance that the actual costs will be either higher or lower than the cost estimate. In other words, provide your currently best available cost estimate without contingency. Contingency will be added separately based on your input. The cost estimate developed for CD-1 will be maintained under configuration control and serve as the basis for future updates and revisions. Our estimating approach must include backup details adequate to support the WBS level presented in the External Independent Review. Detailed cost estimate sheets (attachment 3) are provided to capture this backup detail information.
Power Upgrade Project SNS5
September 21-22, 2005
Cost Estimate Approach
WBS/Title:3.3.4.1.2 HEBT/Linac Dump Design
COSTING BY / DATEHechler/03-18-05
FY_05_year's dollars
TRAVEL
WBS # Item #Schedule Activity ID DESCRIPTION QTY UNITS
$ / UNIT (unburdened)
PACKAGING & SHIPPING $ TOTAL-$ HRS
$/HR (Unburdened) TOTAL-$ $$ BASIS CODE LABOR CODE
ACQUISITION CODE
RESOURCE CODE
PARTICIPANT CODE
UNBURDENED COST COMMENTS/ASSUMPTIONS
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
subtotal -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Sales Tax $
Indirects: Industry markups Indirects $ $
Overhead: DOE Laboratory markups Overhead $0 $0 $0
-$ -$ -$ -$
Contingency Technical Risk 0-15 Contingency Technical Risk Weight 1,2,4
Contingency Cost Risk 0-15 Contingency Cost Risk Weight 1,2,4
Contingency Schedule Risk 0-15
Unknown Unknowns __%
BURDENED, UNESCALATED COST
SNS Power Upgrade Project
MATERIAL/EQUIPMENT LABOR COST CODES
Power Upgrade Project SNS6
September 21-22, 2005
Cost Estimate Summary by WBS
$k, Escalated, burdened
Power Upgrade Project SNS7
September 21-22, 2005
Element of Cost by WBS
Power Upgrade Project SNS8
September 21-22, 2005
Estimate by Phase
Sum of Budgeted Cost ($k, escalated, burdened)
Phase Total
Integration 14,538
Design 9,692
Procure/Fab 63,929
Installation 9,387
Testing 4,168
Software 1,601
Construction 8,352
Commissioning 195
R&D 8,187
Project Support 7,813
Total 127,862
Power Upgrade Project SNS9
September 21-22, 2005
Cost Range
Power Upgrade Project SNS10
September 21-22, 2005
SNS Power Upgrade Project Preliminary Summary Schedule
Legend
MilestoneSummary Activity
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Research & Development
Critical Decision Milestones
Design
31Mar11
0
Procurement & Fabrication
Installation & Testing
Integrated Testing & Commissioning
2a
2b
3a
1
3b
4
# Critical Decision Milestone
CD-0 Mission Need
CD-1 Alt Select & Cost Range
CD-2a Approve Long Lead Procurement Budget
CD-2b Approve Performance Baseline
CD-3a Start Long Lead Procurements
CD-3b Start Construction
CD-4 Project Closeout
Cryomodule Production Design Review
Start Cryomodule & IRP Installation Complete Cryomodule
& IRP Installation
Start Commissioning
Issue Cryomodule Purchase Order
Start Cryomodule Production
Receive 1st Cryomodule Receive Last
Cryomodule
Issue Cryomodule RFP
Ion Source
Injection Stripper Foil
Hg Target
Complete IRP Procurements
Facility Shutdown
Power Upgrade Project SNS11
September 21-22, 2005
Schedule Summary
• Summary Schedule Contains Ninety (90) Activities
• Detailed Schedule Contains Over Six Hundred Fifty (650) Activities
Power Upgrade Project SNS12
September 21-22, 2005
Budget Authority by Fiscal Year
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
BCWS 1,025 2,923 15,240 44,761 31,885 27,853 4,175
Contingency + commitments
BA 1,000 1,500 24,000 47,500 47,000 26,250 12,750
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
-25 -1,423 8,760 2,739 15,115 -1,603 8,575
Power Upgrade Project SNS13
September 21-22, 2005
Cost Estimate Approach
• Suggested Plan– Detailed week to week plan to meet March 06 Cost Review– Document Scope
Parameters List Conceptual Design Report Focus on Deliverables
– Input existing cost estimate data base into ITER format Complete Base Cost Estimate Establish Cost Range
– Risk Assessment– Contingency Analysis– Schedule with Critical Path– Resource Load Schedule– External Review Committee