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This document provides an overview
of
key findings
of
all
of
both TransCanada and opposition research and
materials and
offers key insights for our strategy moving forward
Contents
Project Overview.... ........ ............ ..... . ... ........ ........... .. ... .... ..... . ............ .... . . ... ...... 2
Canadian Public Opinion ........... ..........
.................
......... ..........
.
........ .......... ..... ....... ......... ...
.
..
......... 2
Quebec Public Opinion ... ....... .......... .. ........ ... . ......... ... . ..... .... ...... . . . ..... ....... ..
6
Ontario Public Opinion ...... ....... ......... .... .. . ...... . ...... ... ..... ..... ....... ....... ........... ...... .. ...... ... 8
North Bay .... .. .. .... . . . ........... ........ ..... ..... ...... ...... ....... . ............. ..... .... ....... .... . .......... 8
Ottawa .........
. ................
................. .. ........
...... ...... ....
. ..........
. ........ ....... . ................... ... ..... ....... 9
Opposition Landscape ..... ..
. ... .. .... ..... ......
..... ...... ...... . .....
......... ...... ........... ...... ..... .
11
Edelman Suite
220. 903
3th Avenue SW Calgary AB
T2P
OP
T 403 817 0620
www.edelman.ca A Daniel
J
Edelman Company
Edelman
TransCanada
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Leger Research Framework
To this end, TransCanada commissioned Leger 360 to conduct in-depth qual itative research into public opinion
in
the regions that will
be
affected by the pipeline project.
Leger conducted an online survey of 2,008 Canadian residents (aged 18 or older) from across the country .
•
British Columbia (253)
•
Alberta (251)
•
Manitoba/Saskatchewan (202)
•
Ontario (601)
•
Quebec (501)
•
Atlantic (200)
Leger also identified five
population segments
by environmental attitudes and behaviours : super green,
green, middle of the road , not green, not at all green.
• Notably,
39 of
respondents were middle
of
the road when it came to green
attitudes most of
whom
were younger and had lower levels of education.
• French speakers were over represented in the Super Green and Green segments.
Genera l Insights
1. Canadians are more familiar with and have strengthened their support for the Energy East project.
• Awareness of the new pipeline project has increased considerably in the past year (23% to 53%).
• Proportion of Canadians who support the pipeline project has also increased (51% to 56%).
• Compared to 2012, more Canadians agree that the project will contribute to Canada's economy
and bring more revenues to their provinces.
• Compared to 2012, support for the project has increased in Ontario (59%) and Alberta (70%).
Support has remained stable in Manitoba/Saskatchewan (59%), Atlantic region 51 %) Quebec
(53%). Support has dropped in B.C. (46%) and Quebec (50%) .
• Support for the project has also increased among the Middle of the Road, Not Green, and Not at all
Green segments
of
the respondents.
2 Understanding the economic benefits
of
Energy East drives support.
Edelman
( ( ~
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• Pipelines are considered the safest mode of transport (55 chose pipelines over train or truck)
o Opinion of TransCanada's safety record has remained stable since last year, respondents
were genera
ll
y neutral (44 )
or
had a positive opinion (25 )
of
the company's safety
record .
Media Noise and Sources
of n
formation for Pipelines
• Most Canadians have heard news reports about pipelines on television , in newspapers and on the
Internet. The Internet, information sponsored by pipeline companies and by the government, and
social media are the most important sources
of
information
in
2013.
• Sources
of
information about pipelines vary from province to province .
n
particular, television is
more important in Quebec, while word-of-mouth is more common
in
the prairies.
• Media noise for the construction of new energy pipeline projects in Canada is significantly higher
this year. It is also significantly higher among residents
of
British Columbia.
TransCanada vs . Enbridge
• Awareness
of
both TransCanada and Enbridge is significantly higher than last year. Awareness
of
Enbridge went up most sharply, possibly due to the NEB review process .
• Enbridge is seen to have generated more negative news coverage than TransCanadaOpinion
of
TransCanada has remained stable since last year . Most are neutral or have a positive opinion
of
TransCanada. Unfavourable opinions are higher among British Columbia residents and super green
segments of the population .
• Opinion
of
TransCanada's safety record has remained stable since last year.
ost
are neutral
or
have a
positive opinion.
• Opinion
of
Enbridge has remained stable since last year.
• Opinion
of
Enbridge's safety record has been relatively stable since last year. This year, however, there
is a higher proportion
of
people who have a negative opinion
of
Enbridge.
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The sample was segmented according to environmental attitudes and behavior.
Super green: 14
Unclassified: 10%
Green:
29
4
Key Insights for Qu eb ec
7
• Equiterre's negative campaign against the proposed project did not have much of an impact.
o Recently, Equiterre's Steven Guilbeaut appeared on the popular talk show Tout Le Monde
En
Parle on March
16
, 2014. On the show he put forward a call to action, asking viewers
to
sign a
petition against the Energy East Pipeline. [His appearance did not translate into ny significant
increase
in
activity on social media channels and there was no spike
in
petition signing either.]
• Support for the project is stable.
• Opportunity exists to showcase economic benefits for the regions concerned .
o 41 of respondents from the green segment would be somewhat more favourable to the
project if it creates jobs
in
Quebec.
o Generally speaking, Quebeckers living in areas surrounding the pipeline route are more likely
to believe that oil refineries, oil sands or pipelines are important for the economy of Canada,
Quebec and their community.
o
In addition , Quebeckers living along the pipeline route are more likely to believe that it is
preferable to purchase oil from Western Canada or from the oil sands in Canada instead of
from foreign countries. [Energy independence is a valid argument in these regions.]
• Opposition can still be softened or even reversed by talking of relative benefits compared
to
other
means of transportation . [We should be mindful of how w approach discussions on rail lines]
o Skepticism towards oil
by
rail
is
very strong since Lac-Megantic.
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• North Bay residents are willing to trust information emanating from various sources regarding the
pipeline project.
En
ergy East
Projects
vs
TransCanada Brand
• About half of North Bay residents are aware of the oil pipeline project.
o TransCanada Pipelines are better known
in
North Bay than elsewhere
in
Ontario.
o
North Bay residents are more likely to have heard positive things about TransCanada Pipelines
compared to other Ontarians. [We can perhaps leverage T brand
in
North Bay
to
counter
negative noise around the EE brand ]
• North Bay residents are divided
in
their views of the pipeline project. Notably a quarter of residents are
said to be strongly opposed to the project
o People generally trust the information provided by TransCanada.
Media Noise and Sources of Information
• Noise about the pipeline project
is
mainly negative especially when
it
comes
to
concerns about pipeline
leaks environmental concerns and proximity to water.
• Job creation is the most frequently mentioned positive element regarding the pipeline project.
• University professors and environmental groups are highly trusted while government
is
the least
trusted .
TransCanada vs Enbridge
• TransCanada enjoys both more awareness and better perception than Enbridge
in
North Bay.
ttawa
Public Opinion Research F
ra
mework
Online study o 1 009 Ottawa residents aged 18 or older divided into three groups: South West and Rest. Plus
a qualitative focus group study.
The sample was also segmented according to environmental attitudes and behavior.
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• Environmental groups are considered more credible than oil companies, but their credibil ity is not
unanimous.
Opposition Landscape
Reactions to spills in the Kalamazoo River and Gulf of Mexico, and the challenges facing the Keystone XL pipeline
project have led to influential, coordinated opposition. Environmental NGOs have successfully employed social
media and other digital tools
to
draw attention
to
energy projects, spread misinformation and coordinate activist
activity
to
apply significant political pressure on decision-makers.
The impact that environmental NGOs have had on energy policy in the United States has encouraged these
groups
to
migrate those efforts, expertise and most importantly, resources into the Canadian policy arena.
Opposition Tactic 1 Usi
ng
Numbers and Figures
One opposition strategy is to oppose energy infrastructure projects through the use of reports and data that are
designed to look and feel scientific, authoritative and alarming.
• Pembina Institute
Climate Implications for the Proposed Energy East Pipeline (February 2014)
Main argument: Producing the crude needed to fill Energy East could generate
up
to 32 million tons of
additional greenhouse gas emissions each
year-an
even greater impact than Keystone
XL-and
the
equivalent of adding more than 7 million cars to Canada's roads.
• Environmental Defence, Council of Canadians, Equiterre, Ecology Action Centre
TransCanada's Energy East: An Export Pipeline, Not for Domestic Gain (March 18 , 2014)
Main argument: almost all of Energy East's crude oil will be exported given limited capacity of oil
refineries in the East Coast.
Opposition Tactic 2 Emo tional Appeal
A second strategy establishes
an
emotional resonance with the general public through visual storytelling. When
properly executed, this is a tremendously effective strategy as it can create an emotional response with the
general public that can override logic and reasoning . Combatting this type of opposition tactic with facts and
figures is often ineffective.
11
•
Along
the Pipeline
Climate change photographer Robert van Waarden will follow the route from Hardistry to St John and
will take photographs of the communities and citizens impacted
by
the pipeline project.
Edelman
< Trans anada
