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TCRP Report 161: Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying
Need for Rural Passenger Transportation
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Welcome A.T. Stoddard, PhD, PE
◦ Principal - LSC Transportation Consultants
Corey Pitts, AICP◦ Transportation Planner - Vanasse Hangen Brustlin,
Inc (VHB)
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Project B-3 (1995)◦ Methods for forecasting Demand based on data from 39 selected
counties◦ Workbook and spreadsheet (in 1-2-3)◦ Methods applied by states and agencies
Mixed reviews Project B-36
◦ Methods for both Need and Demand◦ Used national databases◦ Considered new travel markets
History
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Markets have changed
FTA requirement for Public Transportation-Human Service Coordination Plan◦ Plans will be more useful if related to measures of unmet need and
served demand
Internet provides easy access to data not readily available in 1995
Good forecasts provide support for funding from local governments
Why New Methodology?
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Need = number of persons likely to require service
Demand = Use of service at given level of quality and cost
Both are required; need may be more important to build support
It may be more useful to forecast demand related to changes from a base condition
Input from Practitioners
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Demographic data – American Community Survey (and PUMS)◦ Only source for disability data
◦ 3-Year data available for areas having a population of 20,000 or more
◦ 5-Year data for areas of all size available at the tract level
Data Sources
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National Household Travel Survey◦ Valid data only for large geographic areas
Rural National Transit Database (NTD)◦ Service areas not clearly identified◦ Patronage by market not specified◦ Some questions about data quality◦ General public services only
Data Sources
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http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_rpt_161.pdf
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http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_w58.pdf
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http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/168758.aspx
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Understand concepts of need and demand
Explore methodologies for estimating need and demand
Become familiar with workbook
Identify sources of data (collect when appropriate)
Select and apply appropriate methodologies
Understand and apply spreadsheet tool
Goals of the Workshop
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Introduction to TCRP Report 161
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Quick Start Guide
Introduction
Need
Demand
Data Sources
Appendices
Workbook Contents and Organization
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Worksheets
Hot links to Census data (electronic version)
Spreadsheet for application
Features
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Basic data required to estimate need and demand◦ Service characteristics
Service area population Service area (square miles) Annual vehicle-miles Annual vehicle-hours Number of one-way trips served (boardings)
◦ Community Characteristics Area of each county in service area (square miles) College/University enrollment List of social service agencies providing transportation
Quick Start Guide
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Populations in need
Mobility Gap◦ Number of trips needed
Methodologies: Need
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General purpose rural – mostly demand response
Program trips – tied to human service programs
Small city fixed route – in small communities, under 50,000 population*
Commuters – rural area to urban center*
* New topic not addressed in project B-3
Methodologies: Demand - Four Markets
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A – Retrieving Data from the American Community Survey (ACS)
B – Step by Step Instructions for the Rural Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet
C – Suggested Guidelines for Data Collection
Appendices
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Important Definitions
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Need Demand Mobility Gap Trip Program Trip Non-Program Trip Rural Urbanized Area Urban Cluster Urban Center
Some Important Definitions...
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Need relates to transportation that is required so that individuals can fulfill life needs and participate in society. Need is independent of the quality of available transportation◦ Need is measured in two ways: people and trips
Demand is the number of trips that will be made using a transportation service offered at a given price and level of service. ◦ Demand is measured in trips
Need and Demand
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Mobility Gap - The difference between the number of trips made by persons with access to a personal vehicle and those who lack such access◦ Represents the full unmet trip need relative to those
with relatively unfettered mobility
◦ Measured in trips per day
◦ Serving all of the unmet need is unrealistic. This measure can be used to estimate the proportion of unmet need that is served or to set goals based on proportion served
Need – Trip Based
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Program trips – trips that would not be made but for the existence of a specific social service program or activity ◦ Trip time and destination established by agency
Non-program trips – akin to general public transportation but includes trips made using a service limited to specific groups (e.g. persons age 60 or over)◦ Trip time and destination chosen by traveler
Definitions – Trip Types
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In this methodology a trip is a one-way trip from point A to point B
For fixed-route and non-program trips, a “trip” is as defined for the National Transit Database i.e. a “boarding”
For program or sponsored trips, a “trip” is a linked trip from original origin to ultimate destination
Definitions - Trip
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Rural – a county which has a population density less than 1,000 persons per square mile
Urbanized Area – a central place and adjacent territory with population density ≥ 1,000 persons per square mile and total population of at least 50,000
Definitions (continued)
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Urban Cluster – A densely settled area with a population between 2,500 and 50,000◦ Defined by U.S. Census
Urban Center – the central place of an urbanized area◦ As used in the demand forecasting methodology
and Workbook
Definitions (continued)
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Transportation NeedPopulation Segments Method
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Population Based◦ Number of persons residing in households owning
no vehicle Vehicle ownership more important than age
◦ Number of persons residing in households with income below the poverty line
Data for each group, individually, available from the American Community Survey
Need
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Vehicle Ownership is more important than age
60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+0123456789
10
0 Vehicles 1 Vehicle 2 or more Vehicles
Age of at Least One Household Member
Ave
rage
Dai
ly R
ural
Hou
seho
ld
Trip
s
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1 – year data ◦ areas of 65,000 or more population
3 – year data ◦ areas of 20,000 or more population
5 – year data◦ block group level
ACS Data
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Households by Vehicle Availability◦ B08201
Persons residing in households with income below the poverty level ◦ B17001
Table Numbers for ACS Data Retrieval
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Need – Population Based
32
Number of Persons Residing in
Households with Income Below the
Poverty Line
Number of Persons Residing in
Households with No Vehicle Available
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Population Segments Method
Example
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Households with No Vehicle
Multiplier
Persons residing in households
with No Vehicle
One person
household 755 1 755
Two person household 238 2 4763 person
household 198 3 594
4 or more person
household 14 4 56
Total 1,074 1,881
Persons Living in Households with No Vehicle Available (B08201)
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Persons Living in Households with Income Below the Poverty Line (B17001)
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Persons residing in households with income below the poverty levelPersons residing in households owning no automobile
Total Need
Population Segments Method Result
5,827
1,881
7,708
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Transportation NeedMobility Gap Method
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Mobility Gap - The difference between the number of trips made by persons with access to a personal vehicle and those who lack such access◦ Represents the full unmet trip need relative to those
with relatively unfettered mobility
◦ Measured in trips per day
◦ Serving all of the unmet need is unrealistic. This measure can be used to estimate the proportion of unmet need that is served or to set goals based on proportion served
Need – Trip Based
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In this methodology a trip is a one-way trip from point A to point B
Definitions - Trip
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0 1 2 or more0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Rural Household Trips by Number of Household Vehicles
Number of Household Vehicles
Daily
Hou
seho
ld T
rips
Mobility Gap
Source: National Household Travel Survey- 2009
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Mobility Gap by Census Region (NHTS 2009)
Division States
Trips per Rural Household Per Day
Vehicles Available Gap0 1
National 3.2 4.7 1.5
Division 1: New England
Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island
3.3 5.0 1.7
Division 2: Middle New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania 3.5 4.8 1.3
Division 3: East North Central
Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois 2.7 4.1 1.4
Division 4: West North Central
North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota
2.4 4.5 2.1
Division 5: South Atlantic
Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida
3.2 4.5 1.3
Division 6: East South Central
Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi 2.7 4.1 1.4
Division 7: West South Central
Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana 2.9 4.9 2.0
Division 8: MountainIdaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico
5.2 6.0 0.8
Division 9: Pacific Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii 3.8 4.9 1.1
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Mobility Gap
42
Number of Households with
No Vehicle Available(B08201)
Mobility Gap(by Region)
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Mobility Gap MethodExample
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Households with No Vehicle
One person
household 755
Two person household 2383 person
household 198
4 or more person
household 14
Total 1,205
Households with No Vehicle Available (Data for Bedford County, VA)
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Data for Bedford County VA: ◦ Households with no vehicle available = 1,205◦ Gap (Division 5, South Atlantic) = 1.3 trips per
day
Daily Mobility Gap ≈ 1,600 Trips Annual Mobility Gap ≈ 480,000 Trips**Assumes 300 days of service
Mobility Gap Calculation
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List service providers in your area
Tabulate trips served per day (average day) for each provider◦ Report by market group if possible
Sum trips
Compare to computed Mobility Gap
Report estimated percent of Gap served
Compare to Service Provided
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Estimated Trip Need = X trips per day
@ 1.0 trips/mile = X Miles - Existing Daily Vehicle Miles to satisfy 100% of estimated need
TCRP Report 98 provides methodology and software for estimating the number of vehicles to serve any given level of demand◦ http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/153268.aspx
Uses of Mobility Gap Based Need Estimate
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General Public Rural Demand
Peer Method
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Two basic approaches to developing forecasts
◦ Peer analysis
◦ Demand Function
General Public Rural Transit
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Program trips – trips that would not be made but for the existence of a specific social service program or activity ◦ Trip time and destination established by agency
Non-program trips – akin to general public but includes trips made using a service limited to specific groups (e.g. persons age 60 or over)◦ Trip time and destination chosen by traveler
Definitions
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Preferred Sources of Data (in decreasing order)◦ Your System
◦ Systems Operating in Similar Rural Settings in Your State
◦ Systems Operating in Similar Rural Settings Elsewhere
General Public (Peer Comparisons)
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Operating environment◦ Size of service area (population; square miles)◦ Presence of college or university◦ Funding sources
Degree of coordination◦ Social service programs in operation◦ Agency provided client transportation
Selecting Peers
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Sources of Peer Data Your state transit agency or transportation
agency State transit association
◦ Your state◦ Neighboring states
National Rural Transit Database Call other agencies For larger systems: Integrated National
Transit Database Analysis System
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Information Needed (for identified peer systems)◦ Population of the area served◦ Size in square miles of the area served◦ Presence of major generator (College, Employer, etc.)◦ Annual vehicle-miles and/or vehicle-hours of service
provided◦ Nature of the operation (e.g. fixed-route, route-deviation,
demand-response)◦ Number of one-way trips served (per month, per year)◦ Degree of coordination with other carriers
General Public (Peer Comparisons)
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Who are peers of your system?
How can you get data?
General Public (Peer Comparisons)
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Compute the following values for each system’s data:◦ Passenger Trips per Capita
◦ Passenger Trips per Vehicle Mile (by service type)
◦ Passenger Trips per Vehicle Hour (by service type)
General Public Method (Peer)
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Peer MethodExample
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Input Data from Peer Transit SystemsName of Peer SystemPopulation AreaSize of Area Served (Sq Mi)Annual Vehicle Miles of ServiceAnnual Vehicle Hours of ServiceNumber of 1-Way Trips per YearService TypeDegree of CoordinationTrips / CapitaTrips / Vehicle MileTrips / Vehicle Hour
Peer Data WorksheetPeer A
82,879
1,154
130,376
10,009
57,874
FR
Unk
0.70
0.44
5.78
Peer B
88,661
1,037
200,676
14,390
221,910
FR
Unk
Peer C
87,614
835
316,403
20,252
224,046
FR
Unk
2.50
1.11
15.42
2.56
0.71
11.06
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Results Data from Peer Transit SystemsName of Peer System Peer A Peer B Peer C
Trips per CapitaTrips per Vehicle MilesTrips per Vehicle Hours
Compute the Following
Results Data from Peer Transit SystemsMinimum Maximum Average Median
Trips per CapitaTrips per Vehicle MilesTrips per Vehicle Hours
0.70 2.50 2.56
0.44 1.11 0.71
5.78 15.42 11.06
1.92
0.75
10.75
0.70
0.44
5.78
2.56
1.11
15.42
2.50
0.71
11.06
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General Public Method (Peer)
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Peer Comparison Results
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General Public Rural Demand
Non-program trips
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Demand is a function of Population Groups:◦ Elderly age 60 and over
B01001
◦ Mobility limitation age 18 to 64 S1810
◦ Residents in Households with No Vehicle Available B08201
Non-Program Trip Demand
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Non-Program Demand Function
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2.20 Population Age 60+
5.21 Mobility Limited Population Age
18-64
1.52Residents of Households
with No Vehicle
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Non-Program TripsExample
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Non-Program Demand Function
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Non-Program Demand Function
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Non-Program Demand Function
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Non-Program Demand Function
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2.20 14,697
5.21 1,537
1.52 1,745
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Rural Public Transit Demand
Non-market specific
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Another method for estimating demand for non-program trips◦ “General Public” Trips
Reported to Rural NTD Method relates expected demand to
estimate of need (mobility gap) and amount of service provided
Can be used to compare change in demand with service expansion/reduction
Rural Public Transportation Demand
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Rural Public Transportation Demand
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2.44 Need0.028 Annual Vehicle-Miles0.749
Need = Mobility Gap time 300 Days of Service
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Demand - Program Trips
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Program trips – trips that would not be made but for the existence of a specific social service program or activity
◦ Trip time and destination established by agency
Definition
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Adult day care Developmental
Services Group Homes Head Start Job Training
Mental Health Senior Nutrition Sheltered Workshop/
Employment Service Organization (ESO)
Types of Human Service Programs
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What other human service programs operate in your areas?
Do they provide transportation?
How do you work with them?
Group discussion
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Program Trip Demand Equals...
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Number of Program
Participants
Program Events
per Week
The Proportion of Program Participants
who attend the Program on an Average Day
The Proportion of Program Participants
that are Transit Dependent
The Number of Weeks per
Year the Program is
Offered
2 (trips per participant per event)
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When preparing a Coordinated Plan obtain from each agency the data required to estimate transportation demand
Suggestion
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Program TripsExample
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Small City Fixed Route
Micropolitan Areas
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A small city, for purposes of this analysis, is one with a population of less than 50,000 located within a county that is not within an urbanized area.
Definition
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Small City Fixed Route Method
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5.77 Revenue-hours of Service
1.07 Population(B01003)
7.12 College/ University Enrollment
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Sources of Data◦ College/University◦ http://www.collegeboard.org/
Small City Fixed Route DataName of Institution Current Enrollment (s) Projected Planning Year
Enrollment (FTEs)
Name of first university
Name of second university
Name of first college
Etc.
Totals
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Small-city Fixed Route
Example
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Rural Public Transportation Demand
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Small City Fixed Route Method
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5.77
1.07 19,257
7.12 7,358
19,857
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Commuters to Urban Centers
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Conditions of application◦Travel from a county that is not part of an
urbanized area◦Travel to a county that is in an urbanized
area◦Commuter trips per day by all modes from
home in county A to workplace in county B in the range of 2,000 – 30,000
Definition
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Commuter Trip Demand Function
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Proportion Using Transit for
Commuter Trips from Rural County to
Urban Place
Number of Commuter
s 2
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Demand Function (cont.)
90
0.024 0.0000056
Workers Commuting from Rural County to
Urban Place
0.00029
Distance in Miles from
Rural County to Urban
Place
0.015 (if the Urban Place is a
state capital)
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Urbanized area Metropolitan Planning Organization
Statewide travel model
American Community Survey (ACS)
Local Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)
Sources of Commuter Trip Data
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http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/
US Census’ Local Employer-Household Dynamics
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Commuters to Urban Centers
Example
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Commuter Trip Demand Function
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Proportion Using Transit for
Commuter Trips from Rural County to
Urban Place
Number of Commuter
s 2
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Demand Function (cont.)
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0.024 0.0000056 2,433
0.00029 220.015 (if the
Urban Place is a state capital)
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Commuter Trip Demand Function
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0.031 2,433 2
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Using the Excel Spreadsheet
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Thank You
Contact Info:A.T. Stoddard
Corey [email protected]
98