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Tech Trends: 2013-2020+ Scott Hargrove Director of IT and Support Services
Tech Trends: 2013-2020+ Scott Hargrove
Director of IT and Support Services
Agenda
1. Definitions and Themes
2. “Micro Tech Trends”
3. “Management Tech Trends”
4. “Macro Tech Trends”
Some definitions…
• Today we’re talking about libraries and
Information Technology (IT)
• Specifically, we’re talking about the
technology trends that drive our
communities, which in turn drive our
libraries
Some definitions…
• Information Technology IS…
– Hardware (servers, routers, switches, etc.)
– Enterprise-level software (operating systems,
security software, ILS, etc.)
– Computer networks (Cabled, wireless, hybrid)
Some definitions…
• Information Technology IS NOT…
– Most Consumer-grade Technology (digital
cameras, data projectors, SmartPhones, MP3
players, anything with “i” in front of it…)
Some definitions…
• Information Technology IS NOT…
– Social Media/Social Networking
– Web Design
– Moving furniture!!!
Some definitions…
• Information Technology was NOT, BUT is
starting to be:
– Tablets, personal laptops, BYOD
– POS/Cash Registers
– Photocopiers
– Telephony
– “Anything with a plug”
Theme for Today
• Libraries follow trends, they rarely start
them
• This is not (usually…) a bad thing – it
ensures library budgets are spent on more
proven technologies
Trend Trackers
• Many IT consultancies track trends
• Very expensive subscriptions…
• HOWEVER – much of the critical
information is published freely, if you know
what to look for…
Gartner, Inc.
• Arguably the biggest and the best trend
tracking organization
• Probably the best technology prediction
accuracy record
Gartner 2013 Top 10 Tech Trends
1. Mobile Device Battles
2. Mobile Applications and
HTML5
3. Personal Cloud
4. Enterprise App Stores
5. The Internet of Things
6. Hybrid IT and Cloud
Computing
7. Strategic Big Data
8. Actionable Analytics
9. In Memory Computing
10. Integrated Ecosystems
Most important for libraries?
• ALL of these trends will have an impact on
libraries this year
• In the interest of time, we’ll briefly examine
three:
Scott’s Top Three
1. Mobile Device Battles
2. Cloud Computing (incorporating Personal
Cloud, Hybrid IT and Cloud Computing,
and Integrated Ecosystems)
3. Strategic Big Data
Mobile Device Battles
“Gartner predicts that by 2013 mobile
phones will overtake PCs as the most
common Web access device worldwide…”
Gartner Top 10 Tech Trends, 2013
Mobile Device Battles
“…the era of PC dominance with Windows
as the single platform will be
replaced…where Windows is just one of a
variety of environments IT will need to
support.”
Gartner Top 10 Tech Trends, 2013
Mobile Device Battles
• Lessons for Libraries:
– Ensure library services are available in
mobile-friendly, cross-browser compatible
versions wherever possible
Mobile Device Battles
• Lessons for Libraries:
– Public wireless hotspots with good bandwidth
are of ever-increasing importance to our
customers
Mobile Device Battles
• Lessons for Libraries:
– Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) is currently a
hot topic, but probably unsustainable in the
long term, and brings major security risks
BYOD
“Through 2014, employee-owned
devices will be compromised by
malware at more than double the rate of
corporate-owned devices.”
Gartner Top 10 IT Predictions, 2013
Cloud Computing
• What is “Cloud Computing”?
– The provision of computing services and
applications over the Internet, generally
access through a browser or specialty
application
Cloud Computing
Personal Cloud
• Accessing personal data, applications and
communities from anywhere, on multiple
devices, in real-time
Personal Cloud
“In this world no one platform, form factor,
technology or vendor will dominate…”
“…shifts focus from the client device to
cloud-based services delivered across
devices.” Gartner Top 10 Tech Trends, 2013
Personal Cloud
• Lessons for Libraries:
– Ensure library services are available in
mobile-friendly, cross-browser compatible
versions wherever possible
e.g. Discovery Layers and on-line collections
Personal Cloud
• Lessons for Libraries:
– The library needs to integrate its services and
collections into the personal cloud of all of its
customers to ensure our future relevance
Personal Cloud
Apps-based access to library materials
and programs: 35% of Americans ages
16 and older would “very likely” use that
service and another 28% say they would
be “somewhat likely” to do so.
“Library Services in the Digital Age”, Pew Research, 2013
Strategic Big Data
“Big Data is moving from a focus on
individual projects to an influence on
enterprises’ strategic information
architecture. Dealing with data volume,
variety, velocity and complexity is forcing
changes to many traditional approaches.”
Gartner Top 10 Tech Trends, 2013
Strategic Big Data
“Big Data isn’t a solution; it’s the name for
the problem. Ninety percent of the world's
data has been created in the last two years.
The very nature of the data that’s being
created is different. It’s now a river, a flowing
stream, and not single, isolated numbers.”
Dane Atkinson, CEO, SumAll
Strategic Big Data
Library of Congress
• Largest library in the world
• 155,300,000 items
• 11,000 new items every day
• 838 miles (1349 km) of bookshelves
Strategic Big Data
“Every day, three times per second, we produce
the equivalent of the amount of data that the
Library of Congress has in its entire print
collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos
on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text
messages about the next Twilight movie.”
Nate Silver
Strategic Big Data
“By 2015, big data demand will reach
4.4 million jobs globally, but only one-
third of those jobs will be filled.”
Gartner Top 10 IT Predictions, 2013
Strategic Big Data
“An important aspect of the challenge in filling
these jobs lies in the fact that enterprises need
people with new skills — data management,
analytics and business expertise and
nontraditional skills necessary for extracting the
value of big data, as well as artists and
designers for data visualization.”
Gartner Top 10 IT Predictions, 2013
Strategic Big Data
“An important aspect of the challenge in filling
these jobs lies in the fact that enterprises need
people with new skills — data management,
analytics and business expertise and
nontraditional skills necessary for extracting the
value of big data, as well as artists and
designers for data visualization.”
Gartner Top 10 IT Predictions, 2013
Strategic Big Data
A cautionary note – Big Data, or Big Hype?
Tech Hype Curve
Internet of Things
Big
Data
HTML 5
Cloud Computing
Media Tablets
Cloud Computing (2011) Media Tablets (2011)
Internet of Things
Big
Data
HTML 5
Cloud Computing
Tech Hype Curve - Past
Wireless (1995)
Satellite Radio (2004)
Tablet PC (2003)
Information Superhighway (1995)
HD TV (2004)
Voice over IP (2000)
Household Wi-Fi (2004)
Digital Cameras (2004)
PDA Phones (2001)
Managing Leading IT
• Business sets the trend, libraries follow
• There are major changes happening in the
way that business is managing IT
A Bit of History
• Corporate business traditionally have:
– CEO (Chief Executive Officer)
– CFO (Chief Financial Officer)
– COO (Chief Operating Officer)
A Bit of History
• New C-level roles have started to appear
in the last 25 years, including:
– Chief Marketing Officer (Retail Organizations)
– Chief Investment Officer (Banking)
– Chief Risk Officer (Banking)
A Bit of History
“In 1986, when BusinessWeek introduced
“Management’s Newest Star,” inviting us
to “Meet the Chief Information Officer,” the
idea of adding anyone else to the C-Suite
was not only revolutionary, it was
frightening.” Toni Bowers, Tech Decision Maker, July 15, 2013
http://www.techrepublic.com/blog/tech-manager/why-the-cio-isnt-cutting-it-
anymore/8445?tag=nl.e101&s_cid=e101&ttag=e101&ftag=TRE684d531
A Bit of History
• What are CIOs?
– Professional background in computer science,
computer engineering, software engineering
or some other technical field
– Often, but not always, have appropriate
business courses and/or education acquired
later in their career
CIO Profile
Stephanie Reel
CIO, The Johns Hopkins
University and Health System – BSc in Information Systems
Management
– MBA
– 15 years of experience in information
systems
A Bit of History
• The role of the CIO continues to be difficult
to define, and varies from company to
company in:
– Responsibilities
– Reporting structure
• 2000: CIO = “Career Is Over”
A Bit of History
• Evidence of communication problems
between CIOs and CEOs
• Brief experimentation with CIOs reporting
to CFOs in the early 2000s
• Economically responsible decisions often
resulted in major IT disasters
Current Challenges
• Additional research is showing that part of
the problem with the CIO role is that it is
simply too large, and too poorly
understood
Current Challenges
• This is in turn leading to the growth of new
C-level roles:
– Chief Technology Officer
– Chief Automation Officer
– Chief Security Officer
– Chief Data Officer
Current Challenges
• Growth of new opportunities combined
with current public sector conditions is
resulting in losses of public sector CIOs
Current Challenges
“Gartner found that IT executives at all levels of
government tend to stay in their posts for an average of
3.4 years in 2012. A year before that, government CIO
tenures lasted 4.2 years on average.
In the private sector, CIOs remained in their posts for 4.7
years on average in 2011 and 5.7 years on average in
2012.”
http://www.itworldcanada.com/news/why-canadian-u-s-cios-are-leaving-the-government/147570#ixzz2dCxNzBRD
Current Challenges
“Salary freezes, sequestrations, public
sector bankruptcies and elections are
among the reasons cited by analysts and
government CIOs for their early withdrawal
of IT leaders from the public sector.”
http://www.itworldcanada.com/news/why-canadian-u-s-cios-are-leaving-the-government/147570#ixzz2dCxNzBRD
Current Challenges
“This is unfortunate, according to the Rick
Howards, analyst at Gartner, because
government CIO tenure is declining at a
time when “dependence on information
and data in government is increasing.”
http://www.itworldcanada.com/news/why-canadian-u-s-cios-are-leaving-the-government/147570#ixzz2dCxNzBRD
Where are libraries?
• Very few public libraries have an IT
professional operating at a Senior
Management level (FVRL, GVPL…?)
• In other words, libraries are 20-25 years
behind corporations in adapting their
senior management structures
Library Senior Management
“Shouldn’t our organizational structures be
subject to local plans, local priorities and
thus changing over time, rather than being
the same as 1953?”
Ken Haycock, Blog, September 10, 2013
Managing Leading IT
• Libraries need to add professional IT
leadership to their senior management
teams
IT Job Market
“Base compensation for all technology
professionals will rise by an average of 5.3
percent in 2013, according to Robert Half
Technology’s 2013 Technology Salary
Guide.”
http://career-advice.monster.com/job-search/company-industry-research/2013-technology-jobs-outlook/article.aspx
IT Job Market
• Mobile applications developers 9 percent
• Wireless network engineers 7.9 percent
• Network engineers 7.8 percent
• Data modelers 7.6 percent
• Portal administrators 7.5 percent
• Data warehouse managers 7.4 percent
http://career-advice.monster.com/job-search/company-industry-research/2013-technology-jobs-outlook/article.aspx
IT Job Market
• Business intelligence analysts: 7.3 percent
• Senior Web developers: 7.3 percent
• Web developers: 7.3 percent
• Network architects: 7 percent
• Network managers: 7 percent
http://career-advice.monster.com/job-search/company-industry-research/2013-technology-jobs-outlook/article.aspx
Why do I need a CIO? (or a CAO…or a CTO…or a Director of IT…or a
Manager of IT if your library is small enough that it
doesn’t have a senior management team…)
Upcoming Trends
• ILS and eBook interface
• Integrating the eBook into the OPAC
• Improving the customer experience
Upcoming Trends
• Smart Watches
• Gets lots of media attention
Upcoming Trends
• Industry specific technologies will concern
IT professionals only based on how they
interact with infrastructure
• Consumer devices are exciting, but not
generally a major concern of IT leadership
The Future
Predictions for What the CIO Role Will
Look Like in 2020
http://www.cio.com/article/705599/10_Predictions_for_What_the_CIO_Role_Will_Look_Like_in_2020?page=3&taxonomyId=3174
Upcoming Trends: The Decline of Microsoft
Upcoming Trends: Cloud-based Computing Transition
• Unique challenges for Canada
• Ongoing assessment of IT services for
migration to the Cloud
• Which Cloud?
Upcoming Trends: Technology Staffing Changes
• Fewer, more highly trained, more
expensive, increasingly specialized staff
• Why: trend towards autonomous systems,
but greater complexity in non-autonomous
systems
Upcoming Trends: Technology Staffing Changes
Glass’s Law of Complexity
“For every 25% increase in the business
functionality of a system, there is a 100%
increase in complexity to that system.”
Upcoming Trends: Technology Staffing Changes
Glass’s Law of Complexity
“For every 25% increase in the number of
connections to a system, there is a 100%
increase in complexity to that system.”
Upcoming Trends: Technology Staffing Changes
• More remote staff, operating in teams that
continuously change membership
• How to support them?
Upcoming Trends: Growth of AI
• Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to replace
simple human roles
• Tier One Tech Support will largely by
performed by AI by 2020
• Info Desk/Circ Staff?
Upcoming Trends:
Strategic Big Data
• Business Analytics
• Organization and management of big data
to support effective decision making
Upcoming Trends: CIOs Will Impact Business Direction
“Many CIOs of today meet with business leaders
and contribute to the overall direction of the
company. In the future, the CIO won't just
contribute. He or she may be the main thought
leader, moving from an advisory role to one
more focused on direct innovation.
Upcoming Trends:
CIOs Will Impact Business Direction
Masergy's Naramore says the CIO will be
involved in every key business decision, from
marketing to product design to logistics, because
technology will play a pivotal role (or even the
major key role) in those areas.”
http://www.cio.com/article/705599/10_Predictions_for_What_the_CIO_Role_Will_Look_Like_in_2020
Upcoming Trends:
CIOs Will Impact Business Direction
"The world outside IT changed creating a quiet crisis for
IT. Demands have increased in a world grown dynamic
and digital. The harder CIOs work tended to current
concerns, the less relevant IT became. CIOs know that
the future rests in not repeating the past but in extending
IT by hunting and harvesting in a digital world.“
Mark MacDonald, Gartner Fellow, Group Vice President
Upcoming Trends:
CIOs Will Impact Business Direction
"The world outside IT changed creating a quiet crisis for
IT. Demands have increased in a world grown dynamic
and digital. The harder CIOs work tended to current
concerns, the less relevant IT became. CIOs know that
the future rests in not repeating the past but in extending
IT by hunting and harvesting in a digital world.“
Mark MacDonald, Gartner Fellow, Group Vice President
Cyberwarfare: The Future of
Security • DefCon 2013: Cryptocalypse
– Today’s encryption algorithms will likely be
rendered useless within five years
– Replacement algorithms are patented
– Expect heavy infrastructure replacement
costs roughly 3 years from now, including
major network changes
The End…
…of Net Neutrality
The End…
…of the World Wide Web
The Beginning…
…of multiple “Internets”?
The Internets
• According to Google, there are over one
trillion unique web pages
• Already, the Web is effectively divided by
language – what about geography, politics
and economics?
http://jonathanstray.com/how-many-webs
The Beginning…
…of the CIO as: • Web Contract Negotiator
• Multiple Internet Service Management
• Statistical Manager and Analyst
• Staffing Strategist
• CyberWarfare General
Possibly…
Technology in 2006
• BlackBerry was the dominant
SmartPhone, and was edging out Palm
• Android wasn’t a phone yet, no iPhone
until 2007
• Business Week Cover Story: Second Life
Technology in 2006
• Nintendo Wii was released in November
• VMWare was just starting to offer server
virtualization
• Lack of bandwidth was being identified as
a major worldwide problem
Really The End
• The challenge of a CIO is to determine in
which technology to invest
• A comprehensive background and
education in IT improves the quality of
decisions made
Really The End
• There are some extremely major changes
facing the world of technology by 2020
• Who will lead your library through these
challenges? Are you confident they have
the skills and knowledge needed?
Thank you for contributing! These slides will be uploaded to the
ABCPLD website in the next few
days…
Scott Hargrove Director of IT and Support Services, FVRL
1-888-668-4141 xt. 7043
