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Tech Trends 2020
Tech Trends 2020
Trending the trends: Eleven years of research
CLOUD & BLOCKCHAINRISK BUSINESS OF TECHNOLOGY COGNITIVE &
ANALYTICSDIGITAL EXPERIENCE & DIGITAL REALITYCORE
Capabilityclouds
Hyper-hybridclouds
Cloudorchestration
APIeconomy
Everything-as-a-service
APIimperative
NoOps in aserverless
world
Cloudrevolution
Democratizedtrust
Trusteconomy
Blockchain toblockchains
Realanalytics
Big datagoes towork
Finding the face of
your data
Industrializedanalytics
Darkanalytics
Enterprisedata
sovereignty
Informationautomation
Applied mobility
Enterprisemobility
Mobile only—and beyond
Wearables
Ambientcomputing
Internetof Things
Intelligentinterfaces
Wireless& mobility
Socialcomputing
Socialbusiness
Socialreengineering
Social activation
Assetintelligence
Gamification
Gamificationgoes to work
Industrialcrowdsourcing
CIOs asrevolutionaries
CIO as postdigital
catalyst
CIO asventure
capitalist
CIO as chiefintegration
officer
CIO operationalexcellence
CIO survey: Manifesting
legacy
CIO survey:Creatinglegacy
CIO survey:Navigating
legacy
The end of the death
of ERP
Reinventingthe ERP engine
In-memoryrevolution
Corerenaissance
Reimaginingcore
systems
The newcore
Best-of-breedenterprise
applications
Almost-enterprise
applications
Outside-inarchitecture
Technicaldebt
reversal
Servicesthinking
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2013
2012
2011
2010
2014
Userengagement
Userempowerment
Digitalengagement
Dimensionalmarketing
AR & VRgo to work
Mixedreality
Digitalreality
Beyondmarketing
Userengagement
Humanexperience platforms
Visualization
Geospatialvisualization
Cognitiveanalytics
Amplifiedintelligence
Machineintelligence
AI-fueledorganizations
Informationmanagement
Digitaltwins
IPv6 (andthis time
we mean it)
Real-timeDevOps
Software-defined
everything
Autonomicplatforms
Inevitablearchitecture
Reengineering technology
Connectivityof tomorrow
Virtual-ization
Architecture awakens
Businessof IT
IT workerof the future
Right-speed IT
ITunbounded
No-collarworkforce
Value-drivenapplication
management
Finance & the future
of IT
Measuredinnovation
Design asa discipline
Exponentials
Exponentials
Socialimpact of
exponentials
Exponentialswatch list
Exponentialswatch list
Beyond the digital
frontier
Horizonnext
Cyberintelligence
Digitalidentities
No suchthing as
hacker-proof
Cybersecurity
Riskimplications
Riskimplications
Riskimplications
Riskimplications
DevSecOps& the cyber imperative
Cybersecurity
Ethical technology
& trust
Tech Trends 2020
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I N 2020, THE next stage of digital’s evolution welcomes us with the promise of emotionally intelligent interfaces and hyperintuitive cognitive capabilities that will transform business in unpredictable ways. Yet as we prepare for the coming decade of disruptive change, we would be wise to remember an important
point about yesteryear’s leading-edge innovations: Architects of the 1980s designed mainframe systems that continue to run and generate business value today. Sure, they’re outmoded by today’s standards, but how many of us will build systems that run for decades? And how’s that for a legacy?
Architecting for longevity and adaptability requires a deep understanding of both today’s realities and tomorrow’s possibilities. It requires an appreciation for the technology and market forces driving change. And finally, it requires a long-term commitment to focused and incremental progress.
Against this backdrop, we present Tech Trends 2020, Deloitte’s 11th annual examination of the emerging technology trends that will affect your organization over the next 18 to 24 months. Several of this year’s trends are responses to persistent IT challenges. Others represent technology-specific dimensions of larger enterprise opportunities. All are poised to drive significant change.
We begin Tech Trends 2020 with a timely update on the nine macro technology forces we examined in last year’s report. These forces—digital experience, analytics, cloud, core modernization, risk, the business of technology, digital reality, cognitive, and blockchain—form the technology foundation upon which organizations will build the future. This year’s update takes a fresh look at enterprise adoption of these macro forces and how they’re shaping the trends that we predict will disrupt businesses over the next 18 to 24 months. We also look at three technologies that will likely become macro forces in their own right: ambient experience, exponential intelligence, and quantum.
In subsequent chapters, we discuss trends that, though grounded in today’s realities, will inform the way we work tomorrow. Our chapter on ethical technology and trust takes an in-depth look at how every aspect of an organization that is disrupted by technology becomes an opportunity to lose—or earn—the trust of customers, employees, and stakeholders. We follow with a discussion of human experience platforms that will enable tomorrow’s systems to understand context and sense human emotion to respond appropriately. Pioneering organizations are already exploring ways in which these platforms can meet the very human need for connection.
Introduction
Introduction
Kevin GovenderCIO Programme LeaderDeloitte [email protected]+27 11 304 5088
Arun BabuConsulting Digital Leader andManaging Director for CoreBusiness OperationsDeloitte Consulting [email protected]+27 11 517 4114
Trends evolve in unexpected ways. And often, the most interesting opportunities happen at the places where they intersect. Several of this year’s trends represent fascinating combinations of macro forces and other technology advances. For instance, digital twins represents the culmination of modernized cores, advanced cognitive models, embedded sensors, and more—a recipe that is in itself a trend, even as it builds on evolving individual technologies.
We hope Tech Trends 2020 offers the insights and inspiration you will need for the digital journey ahead. The road from today’s realities to tomorrow’s possibilities will be long and full of surprises, so dream big and architect accordingly.
Tech Trends 2020
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Macro technology forces
Last year’s Tech Trends report explored nine macro technology forces that form the backbone of business innovation and transformation. For a decade, we’ve been tracking the emergence and eventual ascent of digital experience, analytics, cloud, digital reality, cognitive, blockchain, the business of IT, risk, and core modernization. This year’s update takes a fresh look at enterprise adoption of these macro forces and explores how they’re shaping the tech trends we predict will disrupt businesses over the next 18 to 24 months. To realize the full promise of these forces, organizations are exploring how they intersect to create more value as well as new ways to manage technology and the technology function. This necessary step is becoming increasingly important as businesses prepare to tackle emerging forces that appear farther out on the horizon: ambient experience, exponential intelligence, and quantum.
Ethical technology and trust
In a growing trend, leading companies are realizing that every aspect of their organization that is disrupted by technology represents an opportunity to gain or lose trust. They are approaching trust not as a compliance or public relations issue, but as a business-critical goal to be pursued. In this light, trust becomes a 360-degree undertaking to ensure that the many dimensions across an organization’s technology, processes, and people are working in concert to maintain the high level of trust expected by their many stakeholders. Business leaders are reevaluating how their products, services, and the decisions they make—around managing data, building a partner ecosystem, and training employees, among others—build trust. CIOs are emphasizing “ethical technology” and creating a set of tools to help people recognize ethical dilemmas when making decisions on how to use disruptive technologies. Leaders who embed organizational values and tech ethics across their organization are demonstrating a commitment to “doing good” that can build a long-term foundation of trust with stakeholders.
Executive summary
Bill BriggsGlobal chief technology officerDeloitte Consulting [email protected]: @wdbthree
Finance and the future of IT
As technology strategy has increasingly become a core part of business strategy in organizations, the demand for improved outcomes has grown. To achieve this, we expect to see more IT and finance leaders working together to develop flexible approaches for innovating and operating at the speed of agile. Whether under the name of supporting innovation, defending against disruption, or enabling digital transformation, IT will need finance’s support to effectively rethink governance of technology innovation, adapt to Agile methodologies, and secure creative capital. The work of transitioning to new finance, budgeting, and accounting processes that support innovation will not happen overnight. But there are strong incentives for both CIOs and CFOs to find ways to effectively fund innovation. Some companies are already embracing this trend and are exploring possibilities. They are at the leading edge and will likely be the first to enjoy the competitive advantages that come when finance funds innovation at the speed of agile.
Executive summary
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Digital twins: Bridging the physical and digital
The idea of using virtual models to optimize processes, products, or services is not new. But organizations are finding that increasingly sophisticated simulation and modeling capabilities, power visualization, better interoperability and IoT sensors, and more widely available platforms and tools are making it possible to create simulations that are more detailed and dynamic than ever. Digital twins can increase efficiency in manufacturing, optimize supply chains, transform predictive field maintenance, aid in traffic congestion remediation, and much more. Organizations making the transition from selling products to selling bundled products and services, or selling as-a-service, are increasing use of digital twins. As capabilities and sophistication grow, expect to see more organizations use digital twins to optimize processes, make data-driven decisions in real time, and design new products, services, and business models. In the long term, realizing digital twins’ full promise may require integrating systems and data across entire ecosystems.
Human experience platforms
A growing class of AI-powered solutions—referred to as “affective computing” or “emotion AI”—are redefining the way we experience technology. In the coming months, more companies will ramp up their responses to a growing yet largely unmet demand for technology to better understand humans and to respond to us more appropriately. Historically, computers have been unable to correlate events with human emotions or emotional factors, but that’s changing as innovators are adding an emotional quotient (EQ) to technology’s IQ, at scale. Combining AI, human-centered design techniques, and technologies currently being used in neurological research to better understand human needs, human experience platforms will be able to recognize a user’s emotional state and the context behind it, and then respond suitably. Indeed, the ability to leverage emotionally intelligent platforms to recognize and use emotional data at scale is one of the biggest, most important opportunities for companies going forward.
Architecture awakens
Growing numbers of technology and C-suite leaders are recognizing that the science of technology architecture is more strategically important than ever. Indeed, to remain competitive in markets being disrupted by technology innovation, established organizations will need to evolve their approaches to architecture—a process that can begin by transforming the role technology architects play in the enterprise. In the coming months, we expect to see more organizations move architects out of their traditional ivory towers and into the trenches. These talented, if underused, technologists will begin taking more responsibility for services and systems. Likewise, they will become involved in system operations. The goal of this shift is straightforward: move the most experienced architects where they are needed most—into software development teams that are designing complex technology. Investing in architects and architecture and promoting their strategic value enterprisewide can evolve this IT function into a competitive differentiator in the digital economy.
Tech Trends 2020
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Horizon next: A future look at the trends
There’s growing interest among enterprises in looking beyond what’s new to what’s next, and no wonder—an understanding of what’s coming may inform early planning and enable relationships that could make reaping future rewards possible. Leading organizations have disciplined, measured innovation programs that align innovation with business strategy and a long-term technology landscape. They take a programmatic approach to sensing, scanning, vetting, experimenting, and incubating future macro technology forces—such as ambient experiences, exponential intelligence, and quantum—until the technology, the market, and the business applications are ready on an enterprisewide scale. Other organizations should consider following suit, using the knowledge gained to reimagine and transform their enterprises, agencies, and organizations before they themselves are disrupted. In a world of seemingly infinite unknowns, it is possible to focus attention on a meaningful collection of known technologies that, taken together, can help you chart a path to the next horizon.
Executive summary
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Executive editors
Bill Briggs
Global chief technology officerDeloitte Consulting LLP [email protected]
Bill Briggs’ 20-plus years with Deloitte have been spent delivering complex transformation programs for clients in a variety of industries, including financial services, health care, consumer products, telecommunications, energy, and the public sector. He is a strategist with deep implementation experience, helping clients anticipate the impact that new and emerging technologies may have on their businesses in the future—and getting there from the realities of today.
In his role as CTO, Briggs is responsible for research, eminence, and incubation of emerging technologies affecting clients’ businesses and shaping the future of Deloitte Consulting LLP’s technology-related services and offerings. He also serves as executive sponsor of Deloitte’s CIO Program, offering CIOs and other IT executives insights and experiences to navigate the complex challenges they face in business and technology.
Scott Buchholz Emerging Technology research director andGovernment & Public Services chief technology officerDeloitte Consulting [email protected]
With more than 25 years of experience in technology innovation and implementation, Scott Buchholz focuses on helping clients transform the way they deliver their missions and businesses through technology. He supports organizations across industries by providing advice and insights on how to evolve their technology and their organizations to improve performance, effectiveness, and efficiency.
In his role as CTO for Deloitte Consulting LLP’s Government and Public Services practice, Buchholz works with clients to implement innovation across a diverse set of areas, including legacy modernization, eGovernment and eCommerce solutions, and solution architecture.
As the emerging technologies research director and the sponsor of Tech Trends, he helps identify, research, and champion the technology trends that are expected to have significant impact on the market and clients’ businesses in the future.
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Executive perspectives authors
STRATEGY Benjamin FinziUS Chief Executive Program leader | Deloitte Consulting LLP
Benjamin Finzi is a managing director with Deloitte Consulting LLP and coleads Deloitte’s Chief Executive Program. As a founder of New York’s Deloitte Greenhouse® Experience, he has designed and facilitated hundreds of immersive “lab” experiences for CEOs and their leadership teams, combining principles of business strategy with behavioral science and design thinking to address clients’ challenges. Finzi has been focused for more than 20 years on researching and understanding how companies succeed in disruptive markets.
FINANCE Ajit KambilCFO Program global research director | Deloitte LLP
Ajit Kambil is the global research director of Deloitte LLP’s Chief Financial Officer Program. He oversees research in areas such as leadership, capital markets, and risk. Kambil created CFO Insights, a biweekly publication serving more than 38,000 subscribers, and developed Deloitte’s Executive Transition Lab, which helps CXOs make an efficient and effective transition into their new role. He is widely published in leading business and technology journals.
Moe QualanderPrincipal | Deloitte & Touche LLP
Moe Qualander is a principal with Deloitte & Touche LLP’s Risk & Financial Advisory practice. He has more than 20 years of experience, specializing in assessing internal controls in financial business operations and IT. Qualander leads Deloitte’s Chief Financial Officer Program’s Center of Excellence, focusing on creating and enhancing relationships with clients’ CFOs. As dean of Deloitte’s Next Generation CFO Academy, he assists future finance executives with enhancing their leadership, influence, and competency skills.
RISK Deborah GoldenUS Cyber Risk Services leader | Deloitte & Touche LLP
Deborah Golden is a principal with Deloitte & Touche LLP and Deloitte’s US Cyber Risk Services leader. She brings more than 25 years of information technology experience in industries that include government and public services (GPS), life sciences and health care, and financial services to the role, and previously served as Deloitte’s GPS cyber leader, as well as GPS Advisory market offering leader. Golden also serves on Virginia Tech’s Business Information Technology and Masters in Information Technology advisory boards.
Authors and acknowledgments
125
Bill Briggs
Global chief technology officerDeloitte Consulting LLP [email protected]
Scott Buchholz
Government & Public Services chief technology officerDeloitte Consulting [email protected]
Sandeep Sharma, PhD
Deputy chief technology officerDeloitte Consulting [email protected]
Catherine Bannister
Technology Fluency and Ethics global directorDeloitte Services [email protected]
Deborah Golden
US Cyber Risk Services leaderDeloitte & Touche [email protected]
John Celi
Business Agility US leaderDeloitte Consulting [email protected]
Jon Smart
Business Agility UK leaderDeloitte MCS [email protected]
Ajit Kambil
CFO Program global research directorDeloitte [email protected]
Zsolt Berend
Business Agility senior managerDeloitte MCS [email protected]
Khalid Kark
US CIO Program research leader Deloitte Consulting [email protected]
Chapter authors
MACRO TECHNOLOGY FORCES
ETHICAL TECHNOLOGY AND TRUST
FINANCE AND THE FUTURE OF IT
Tech Trends 2020
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Adam Mussomeli
Supply Chain & Network Operations leader Deloitte Consulting [email protected]
Lane Warshaw, PhD
Analytics & Cognitive managing directorDeloitte Consulting [email protected]
Aaron Parrott
Supply Chain & Network Operations managing directorDeloitte Consulting [email protected]
Brian Umbenhauer
Industrial Products and Construction leaderDeloitte Consulting [email protected]
Tamara Cibenko
US Digital Experience leadDeloitte Consulting [email protected]
Amelia Dunlop
Deloitte Digital chief experience officerDeloitte Consulting [email protected]
Nelson Kunkel
Deloitte Digital chief design officerDeloitte Consulting [email protected]
Saul Caganoff
Platform Engineering chief technology officerDeloitte Consulting Pty [email protected]
Ken Corless
Cloud chief technology officer Deloitte Consulting [email protected]
Stefan Kircher
Innovations & Platforms chief technology officerDeloitte Consulting [email protected]
Mike Bechtel
Managing director Deloitte Consulting [email protected]
Bill Briggs
Global chief technology officerDeloitte Consulting LLP [email protected]
Scott Buchholz
Government & Public Services chief technology officer Deloitte Consulting [email protected]
DIGITAL TWINS: BRIDGING THE PHYSICAL AND DIGITAL
HUMAN EXPERIENCE PLATFORMS
ARCHITECTURE AWAKENS
HORIZON NEXT: A FUTURE LOOK AT THE TRENDS
Authors and acknowledgments
127
Contributors
Mukul Ahuja, Zillah Austin, Randall Ball, Sonali Ballal, Tushar Barman, Neal Batra, Jonathan Bauer, Mike Brinker, Randy Bush, Rachel Charlton, Sandy Cockrell, Allan Cook, Megan Cormier, Amit Desai, Anant Dinamani, Sean Donnelly, Matt Dortch, Deborshi Dutt, Karen Edelman, Michael Fancher, Frank Farrall, Jourdan Fenster, Bryan Funkhouser, Andy Garber, Haritha Ghatam, Cedric Goddevrind, Jim Guszcza, Maleeha Hamidi, Steve Hardy, Blythe Hurley, Lisa Iliff, Siva Kantamneni, Mary-Kate Lamis, Blair Kin, Kathy Klock, Yadhu Krishnan, Michael Licata, Mark Lillie, Veronica Lim, Mark Lipton, Kathy Lu, Adel Mamhikoff, Sean McClowry, JB McGinnis, Meghan McNally, Kellie Nuttall, Melissa Oberholster, Arun Perinkolam, Ajit Prabhu, Aparna Prusty, Mohan Rao, Hannah Rapp, Scott Rosenberger, Mac Segura-Cook, Preeti Shivpuri, Lisa Smith, Gordon Smith, Tim Smith, David Solis, Alok Soni, Patrick Tabor, Sonya Vasilieff, Aman Vij, Jerry Wen, Mark White, Drew Wilkins, Abhilash Yarala, Andreas Zachariou, and Jim Zhu.
Research team LEADS
Cristin Doyle, Chris Hitchcock, Betsy Lukins, Dhruv Patel, Andrea Reiner, and Katrina Rudisel.
TEAM MEMBERS
Stephen Berg, Erica Cappon, Enoch Chang, Tony Chen, Ankush Dongre, Ben Drescher, Ahmed Elkheshin, Harsha Emani, Jordan Fox, Riya Gandhi, Dave Geyer, Maddie Gleason, April Goya, Adhor Gupta, Alex Jaime Rodriguez, Morgan Jameson, Solomon Kassa, Pedro Khoury-Diaz, Emeric Kossou, Dhir Kothari, Shuchun Liu, James McGrath, Hannan Mohammad, Spandana Narasimha Reddy, Gabby Sanders, Joey Scammerhorn, Kaivalya Shah, Deana Strain, Samuel Tart, Elizabeth Thompson, Samantha Topper, Kiran Vasudevan, Greg Waldrip, and Katrina Zdanowicz.
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Special thanksMariahna Moore for gracefully accomplishing the impossible year after year, making it look easy, and ensuring we always follow the rules. Your standards for excellence continue to help Tech Trends live up to its potential. And your ability to stay cool, keep a firm hand on the tiller, and always have a plan for navigating the upcoming challenges is unmatched.
Doug McWhirter for consistently developing deft, incisive prose out of copious streams of consciousness, innumerable interviews, reams of research, and stampedes of SMEs. Your wit, wisdom, and patience help make Tech Trends 2020 the research opus that it is.
Dana Kublin for your talent of conjuring insightful visuals, intuitive infographics, and fascinating figures out of thin air and unclear descriptions. Your ability to talk us out of our crazy ideas and then show us an improved version of what we told you makes all the trends better.
Stefanie Heng for your “gentle persistence” at managing the nonstop, day-to-day activities and always bringing a smile to everything you do. Your grace under pressure and your unflinching commitment to the project has enabled us to “get to done.”
Caroline Brown, Tristen Click, and Linda Holland for your depth of craft, inspired creativity, and immense patience. Whether dealing with infographics, chapters, or interviews, your collective talents, attention to detail, and willingness to go the extra mile made Tech Trends better.
Kaitlin Crenshaw, Natalie Martella, and Camilo Schrader for a fabulous freshman year. Your support as part of the Tech Trends family has been invaluable as you helped keep us on track for interview prep, secondary research, content reviews, designs, graphics, and more.
Mitch Derman, Tracey Parry, and Tiffany Stronsky for continuing to advance our marketing, communications, and PR game. Your willingness to question, push, and share your ideas have helped take our program up to eleven. Your efforts to get the right buzz in the right places at the right times is amazing.
Laura Elias, Martina Jeune, and Faith Shea for an unbelievable impact on your first Tech Trends report. Thank you for bringing new ideas to the table and helping us push the boundaries of what we can accomplish.
Amy Bergstrom, Matthew Budman, Sarah Jersild, Anoop K R, Emily Moreano, Joanie Pearson, and the entire Deloitte Insights team. Your amazing partnership on Tech Trends helps us reach new heights every year.
Authors and acknowledgments
129
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