Technical Actions in the USA€¦ · TECHNICAL ACTIONS IN THE USA NUMBER OF TECHNICAL ACTIONS PER...

© Kemény Boehme & Company GmbHProjektstudie 2016 | Abschlusspräsentation 09. Dezember 2016 – DDA, MGA, EWI 1

Technical Actions in the USA

Causes and forecast for the automotive industry

MARCH 2017


WE WANTED TO ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:

TECHNICAL ACTIONS IN THE USA

HISTORY

How did technical actions develop over the last few years?

TECHNOLOGY

Which modules trigger technical actions?

FORECAST

How will technical actions develop in the future?

?

http://kbc-consultants.com/



BOTH THE NUMBER OF TECHNICAL ACTIONS AND THE NUMBER OF AFFECTED

VEHICLES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW YEARS.


TECHNICAL ACTIONS PER ANNUM AFFECTED VEHICLES PER ANNUM [MILLION]

79,2

87,5

60,6

26,3

18,315,6

22,6

17,6

22,220,6

14,1

20,4

33,0

22,826,1

40,8

46,6

58,4

18,0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

9897 99

19,9

Number [million]

11 14

X 4

16

Year

1312 159 108210 543 76

Increasing trend for technical actions (+ 54% over the last 5 years).

Massive increase in affected vehicles (Factor 4). An average of 76 million affected vehicles over the last

three years.

Distortions due to Airbag (Takata) and Dieselgate (VW).

1.019976

873

711661654

722

570

780

713

613645

699

600

514560

623

444413

318

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.000

1.100

11 1312

Number

10

X 1.54

Year

6 8421 53 70 99897 99 14 1615

S = 13,108 S = 671

Source: NHTSA, 21.01.2017




BOTH THE BIG AMERICAN OEMS AND THE GERMAN OEMS (BMW, VW AND

MERCEDES) ARE CONSPICUOUS.


RANKING ACCORDING TO TECHNICAL ACTIONS

GM, Ford and Chrysler have held the first three top positions for years.

BMW with continuous improvement (meanwhile “only” ranking as number 14)

VW (No. 6) and Mercedes (No. 8) have deteriorated over the last 5 years.

OEM 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Trend

GM 2 2 4 4 3 5 2 4 1 3

Ford 5 1 1 7 3 1 5 2 2 3

Chrysler 3 6 3 5 13 9 1 3 3 2

Toyota 16 28 6 7 5 8 5 5 4 6

BMW 12 3 6 10 14 5 8 8 10 14

Honda 9 18 27 13 5 7 8 7 10 11

Nissan 14 13 16 9 14 9 7 9 8 10

VW 22 17 9 71 9 26 31 16 15 6

Hyundai 101 18 9 22 29 38 14 17 17 12

Mercedes Benz 39 18 38 48 36 16 31 14 26 8

Deteriorated Consistent Improved 1st Place: highest number during the year of analysis, positions refer to all manufacturers, not only those selected





GERMAN OEMS DO NOT OCCUPY THE UPPER RANKS DUE TO COMPARATIVELY

LOWER SALES FIGURES.


RANKING ACCORDING TO NUMBER OF AFFECTED VEHICLES

Ford, GM and Chrysler in the first positions.

VW and Mercedes have deteriorated while BMW’s development is consistent

OEM 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Trend

Ford 1 4 2 8 1 4 7 5 5 5

GM 7 2 3 2 7 3 10 6 1 3

Chrysler 2 14 6 5 5 5 1 2 3 2

Toyota 9 6 1 1 2 1 2 4 4 7

Honda 8 8 38 4 3 2 5 3 9 4

Nissan 5 7 5 3 10 12 12 7 8 6

Hyundai 114 9 4 16 6 10 4 9 6 14

VW 4 12 17 13 9 37 24 14 11 10

BMW 33 18 35 11 11 8 9 13 12 11

Mercedes Benz 42 21 43 20 18 32 148 16 16 13

Deteriorated Consistent Improved 1st Place: highest number during the year of analysis, positions refer to all manufacturers, not only those selected





THE TRIGGERS FOR TECHNICAL ACTIONS CAN BE SUBDIVIDED INTO 18 MODULES


FEATURES BRAKES ELECTRICS /

ELECTRONICS

LIGHT / VISION FUEL SUPPLY SUSPENSION /

SHOCK

ABSORPTION

STEERING ENGINE / ENGINE

COOLING

WHEELS / TYRES DRIVETRAIN BODY / CHASSIS AIRBAG

SEATS SAFETY BELT SPEED

REGULATION

LOCK HANDBRAKE SIGNAL

TRANSMITTER




APART FROM THE AIRBAG, THE AFFECTED VEHICLES ARE DISTRIBUTED ALMOST

EQUALLY TO THE ANALYSED MODULES.


NUMBER OF TECHNICAL ACTIONS PER MODULE (1997-2016)

A large number of technical actions under the “Features” item. Brakes, Electrics/Electronics and Light/Vision

form additional main problem areas.

Takata’s airbag issue superimposes the total statistics. A large number of affected vehicles under Wheels /

Tyres. Seats among the top 5 due to baby seat.

S = 13,108

680172202222

405461472568654682752765785

8779531.018

1.287

2.747

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

Fe

sts

tellb

rem

se

Schlo

ss

Number

Lenkung

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iebsstr

ang

Räder/

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r/ M

oto

rkühlu

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Airbag

Lic

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lektr

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ung

Aussta

ttung

AFFECTED VEHICLES PER MODULE (1997-2016) [MILLION]

0,11,92,6

15,520,721,0

22,022,423,1

25,525,5

32,733,140,847,548,7

85,8

149,5

0

50

100

150

52,5

Sitze

Lic

ht/

Sic

ht

Airbag

Ele

ktr

ik/ E

lektr

onik

Räder/

Reifen

Sic

herh

eitsgurt

Fe

deru

ng/

Däm

pfu

ng

Fe

sts

tellb

rem

se

Sig

nalg

eber

Number

Nic

ht bekannt

Schlo

ss

Moto

r/ M

oto

rkühlu

ng

Lenkung

Antr

iebsstr

ang

Aussta

ttung

Rohbau/

Karo

sserie

Kra

ftsto

ffvers

org

ung

Geschw

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Bre

msen

S = 671

53% 57%





SELECTED OEMS IN COMPARISON (1/2)


TOP 3 MODULES ACCORDING TO NUMBER OF TECHNICAL ACTIONS PER MANUFACTURER (1997-2016)

The problem areas airbag, brakes as well as light / vision affect several safety-relevant scopes.

Different problem areas for individual OEMs.

OEM Total Top 1 Top 2 Top 3

GM 646 Light / Vision 12% Brakes 11% Airbag 9%

Ford 608 Features 16% Fuel supply 14% Light / Vision 7%

Chrysler 509 Airbag 12% Drivetrain 12% Electrics / Electronics 12%

Toyota 254 Airbag 14% Features 10% Wheels/Tyres 9%

BMW 245 Brakes 15% Engine / Engine cooling 12% Airbag 11%

Honda 243 Airbag 16% Electrics / Electronics 13% Light / Vision 11%

Nissan 230 Fuel supply 12% Airbag 11% Electrics / Electronics 8%

VW 159 Fuel supply 21% Airbag 15% Light / Vision 11%

Hyundai 130 Airbag 23% Light / Vision 10% Brakes 8%

Mercedes Benz 120 Light / Vision 14% Safety belt 13% Electrics / Electronics 11%

% values: Share of the module in the total scope of the respective OEM





SELECTED OEMS IN COMPARISON (2/2)


TOP 3 MODULES ACCORDING TO NUMBER OF AFFECTED VEHICLES PER MANUFACTURER (1997-2016)

Airbag very prominent with all OEMs

The top 3 modules account for 53% of all affected vehicles.

OEM Total [million] Top 1 Top 2 Top 3

GM 101.5 Electrics / Electronics 22% Brakes 13% Light / Vision 12%

Ford 116.5 Wheels / Tyres 26% Cruise control 15% Fuel supply 8%

Chrysler 79.9 Airbag 27% Drivetrain 13% Electrics / Electronics 11%

Toyota 50.9 Airbag 22% Cruise control 21% Light / Vision 14%

Honda 41.2 Airbag 47% Electrics / Electronics 14% Drivetrain 8%

Nissan 23.4 Airbag 32% Engine / Engine cooling 15% Fuel supply 13%

Hyundai 11.3 Brakes 28% Airbag 22% Drivetrain 11%

VW 10.5 Light / Vision 32% Fuel supply 20% Airbag 17%

BMW 6.6 Airbag 37% Electrics / Electronics 14% Engine / Engine cooling 12%

Mercedes Benz 3.3 Airbag 36% Steering 14% Light / Vision 14%

% values: Share of the module in the total scope of the respective OEM





5 TRENDS IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY WERE EXAMINED.


TRENDS IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

Autonomous driving & E/E1) Electrification / Light

construction

Interconnectedness (IoT)

Process optimisation OEM Customer and general

public

1) E/E – Electrics / Electronics




IN ADDITION TO TECHNICAL RISKS, LEGISLATION WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT

ON THE TECHNICAL ACTIONS.


EVALUATED DRIVERS

Trends DriversPossible effect on the

number of TAs

Possible effect on the

number of affected vehicles

Autonomous driving & E/E

Number of control units, more complex Software

Increase in the number of sensors and cameras

Increase in the number of assistant and comfort systems, redesigned interior

Electrification / Light

construction

Reduced drive complexity due to eMotor

Upgrades & new light-construction concepts

Interconnectedness (IoT)

Data/Online security issues

Online Software updates without the need for a workshop

Process optimisation OEM Deeper penetration of individual parts tracking

Customer & general public

Increased customer networking and fast defect transparency (Social Media,

etc.)

Increased protectionist measures

Increased pressure due to more stringent inspections by the authorities

Increase Reduction




THE NUMBER OF AFFECTED VEHICLES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, ESPECIALLY IN THE

SHORT TERM.


FORECAST NUMBER OF AFFECTED VEHICLES

46

7367

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

+9%

Affected

vehicles [million]

+46%

Partial adjustment

“Special event for

Airbag”1)

Without adjustment

Airbag

• US authorities keeping a keener eye on the OEMs,

with protectionist measures conceivable.

• The number of electric vehicles is growing slowly and

so are the risks (high-voltage batteries, power

electronics).

• The number of affected vehicles is reduced by the area-wide

application of individual parts tracking.

• Further reduction due to control of electric drive.

• Expanded (virtual) hedging activities make vehicle safer.

1) Flat rate reduction by 75%




YOUR CONTACT


Maximilian KleePartner

Kemény Boehme & Company GmbH

Lyonel-Feininger-Str. 28

80807 Munich

Tel.: +49 (0) 151 14 84 72 07

E-Mail: [email protected]

www.kbc-consultants.com

Isabelle TranSenior Consultant


Lyonel-Feininger-Str. 28

80807 Munich

Tel.: +49 (0) 151 14 82 14 33

E-Mail: [email protected]






Lyonel-Feininger-Str. 28 – 80807 Munich


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