Technical Review of Stocks · Technical Review of Stocks CIO Wealth Management Research 16 November...

Technical Review of Stocks CIO Wealth Management Research 16 November 2014

Peter Lee, Chief Technical [email protected]

+1-212-713-8888, ext.01

Broader list

This report provides technical analysis on stocks that, we believe, are of a wide interest. This list is not a template forthe construction of your personal portfolio. You should discuss investment decisions with your Financial Advisor. For more information about this report, see Description and Methodology in the Appendix. We would like to thank Venkat Badri, an employee of Cognizant Group, for his assistance in preparing this research report. Cognizant staff provides research support services to UBS.

This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS). Analyst certification and required disclosuresbegin on page 40. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Table of Contents Ticker Name Page Ticker Name PageAMGN AMGEN INC 4 IBM INTL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP 20AMZN AMAZON.COM INC 4 ITW ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC 21AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC 5 JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON 21BAC BANK OF AMERICA CORP 5 KMB KIMBERLY-CLARK CORP 22BEN FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC 6 LB L BRANDS INC 22BMY BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB CO 6 MCD MCDONALD'S CORP 23BP BP PLC 7 MHFI MCGRAW HILL FINANCIAL 23BRK.B BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY - CLASS B 7 MMM 3M CO 24 C CITIGROUP INC 8 MO ALTRIA GROUP INC 24CAT CATERPILLAR INC 8 NEE NEXTERA ENERGY INC 25CELG CELGENE CORP 9 NSRGY NESTLE SA/AG 25COP CONOCOPHILLIPS 9 NVS NOVARTIS AG 26COST COSTCOWHOLESALE CORP 10 ORCL ORACLE CORP 26CPB CAMPBELL SOUP CO 10 OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP 27CSX CSX CORP 11 PEP PEPSICO INC 27CTL CENTURYLINK INC 11 PFE PFIZER INC 28CVS CVS CAREMARK CORP 12 PG PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 28CVX CHEVRON CORP 12 PM PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL 29D DOMINION RESOURCES INC 13 RDSA ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC 29DD DU PONT (EI) DE NOMOURS 13 SBUX STARBUCKS CORP 30DE DEERE AND CO 14 STJ ST JUDE MEDICAL INC 30DEO DIAGEO PLC 14 T AT&T INC 31DIS THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY 15 TEVA TEVA PHARMACEUTICALS 31DOW DOW CHEMICAL 15 TGT TARGET CORP 32DUK DUKE ENERGY CORP 16 TOT TOTAL SA 32EOG EOG RESOURCES INC. 16 USB U.S. BANCORP 33F FORD MOTOR CO 17 V VISA INC-CLASS A 33FB FACEBOOK INC 17 VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC 34GILD GILEAD SCIENCES INC 18 VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC 34GIS GENERAL MILLS INC 18 WAG WALGREENS CO 35GSK GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC 19 WFC WELLS FARGO 35HD HOME DEPOT INC 19 WMT WAL-MART STORES INC 36HON HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC 20 XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP 36

Technical Review of Stocks

CIO WM Research 17 November 2014 2

Changes since last report Additions Name Ticker

Technical Rating Changes Name Ticker Old New Procter & Gamble Co PG Neutral Bullish Starbucks Corp SBUX Neutral Bullish Visa Inc V Neutral Bullish

The last update on these stocks was published on 20 October 2014. Going forward, our previously published ratings for these stocks should not be relied upon.



Amgen Inc. (AMGN)

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Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS CIO WMR as of 13 November 2014 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third 148.5-151.5 144.41-145.24 124.39-127.67 164.65 172-175 200-202

Technical rating Bullish Sector HealthCare

Last Sale Price $160.85

Rationale: An ascending broadening wedge signals a maturing trend. However, the following suggest higher prices:the Jul '14 positive outside month, 8/15/14 positive outside week, 8/14/14 positive outside day and gap ups (7/30/14, 10/23/14 and 10/28/14). Although the 14-year channel breakout above 96.5 (6/13) and a 1-year channel breakout above 145 (8/29) achieved their respective targets, a 1-month flag/pennant breakout above 164.65 still renders upside to 200-202. Key resistance is at the top of the wedge (172-175). Initial support is 148.5-151.5 or 10/28/14 gap up.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 284-285 259-265 246-249 312-320 332-339 364.85

Technical rating Neutral Sector C. Discretionary


Rationale: The ability of AMZN to retain its longer term support near the 2008 uptrend (289), the May/Oct '14 lows (284-285) and the 50% retracement from 2011-2014 rally at 287.5 prevented a deeper correction. However, AMZN continues to trade below its key resistance near the Jan '14 downtrend (339) as well as the 10-/30- week ma (312/320) and the 38.2% retracement (331.5) from Jan-Mar/Oct '14 decline. On the downside, violation of key support at 284 suggests downside risks to 259-265 or the 61.8% retracement and possibly to as low as the May 2013 low at 245.75.



AstraZeneca PLC ADS (AZN)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 66-67.50 61.79-63 54-56 76-77 80.28-82.68 86-87



Rationale: AZN has completed a 4-year technical base breakout on a surge above 52.5-53.5 in late-2013. This breakout ignited a major rally that achieved several technical targets including 66-67 or the Oct '06 record high and 76-77 or the technical target based on late-2013 breakout above 53.53. The May '14 rally to the low-80s also met longer term resistance associated with the extension of the 1998/2006 trend line (not shown). The recent consolidation and the closing of two gap ups along the mid-to-high 60s may set the stage for the next breakout above 76-77.

Bank of America Corp (BAC)

2010 2011 2012 2013 201444

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First Second Third First Second Third 15.90-16.46 15-15.5 12.13-13.02 17.41 18.03 19.10-19.86

Technical rating Neutral Sector Financials


Rationale: BAC came close to breaking out of the top of its 2011 uptrend channel at 18 in Mar '14. However, failureto decisively clear above 18.03 led to a correction that appears to have found support just above its pivotal Dec '11 uptrend channel at 15-15.5. The ensuing rally from the mid-teens is once again approaching key resistance at 17.41-18.03 or the Mar/Oct '14 highs. Also note that a negative outside week (10/10/14) and a gap down (10/15/14) near 17.25-18 hint of important supply. Failure to breakout can result in another trading range between 15 and 18.



Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 55-55.25 52-52.5 48-49 58-58.87 63-65 75-77

Technical rating Bullish Sector Financials


Rationale: The intermediate-to-longer term trend remains bullish as evident by a major 5-year uptrend channel (48-49and 63-64) as well as a large 6-year triangle breakout in early 2013 at 44-45. However, a negative outside month dur-ing Jan '14 (58.87) and a recent smaller 1-year triangle pattern signal a consolidation between the 49-50 and high-50s. The recent closing of the Sep 2013 gap up 48.72-49.31 is constructive. A breakout above 58-59 signals the resumption of the primary uptrend rendering next targets to 63-65 (medium-term) and then to 75-77 (long-term).

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 56.83-57.49 51-53 46.30-47.55 59-61 67-69 75-79.25



Rationale: Pharmaceutical Index (DRG) has appreciated 149% and BMY has gained 270% from their 2008/2009 bot-toms. A recent 4-plus year uptrend channel breakout above 39 in 2013 has exceeded its technical target of 47-48. In fact, it has also surpassed its 61.8% retracement (52.38) from its 1999-2008 declines and is headed towards its 76.4% retracement (60.98). A positive outside month pattern during Oct '14 and a flag/pennant breakout above 59-60 hint of the next rally to 67-69 and possibly to the mid-to-high 70s, over time. Initial support is 56.83-57.49 and then 51-53.



BP PLC ADS (BP)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 39.5-40.5 35.25-36.25 33.62 43.5-44.81 46.5-48.5 51.5-53.5

Technical rating Neutral Sector Energy


Rationale: WTI Crude Oil has fallen 29.6% from its Jun '14 high and BP has decline 26% during similar time frame. In the process, BP has violated its key 2010/2011 uptrend falling to a low of 39.45 in Oct '14. A capitulation/selling climax may be developing for both WTI Crude and the Energy sector. Although marginal new lower lows are still possible intothe end of the year coinciding with tax loss selling an extreme oversold condition hint of a sharp oversold rally. Howev-er, BP needs to surpass its initial resistance at 43.5-44.81 to confirm a near term low and the start of a recovery.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. – Class B stock (BRK.B)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third

140-142.5 132-134 121-124 147-149 153-155 162-164



Rationale: BRK.B remains a leader within the Financial sector. Two breakouts above the mid-80s and above the low-100s last year render upside targets the high 140s, near-term, 154-155, medium-term and then to 162-164, interme-diate-term. This Financial name is now approaching the top of its 2011 uptrend channel at 147-149. Failure to breakout here opens the door for a normal consolidation to initial support at 140-142.5 or the 10-week ma and Sep '14 highs. Secondary support is also available along 132-134 or the 30-week ma and the Oct '14 low.



Citigroup Inc. (C)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 48-50 45.06 40.1-43.68 54.3-55.28 64-65 73-75

Technical rating Neutral Sector Financials


Rationale: The relative strength (against SPX) has improved. However, C remains confined to a trading range between 45.06 (Jun 2013/Apr '14 lows) and 54.3-55.28 (2009/2013/2014 highs). A breakout above the mid-50s confirms a ma-jor technical breakout and renders upside targets to the mid-60s (near-term), mid-70s (intermediate) and mid-80s (longer-term). Initial support moves up to 48-50 or the Oct '14 low and the 30-week ma. Secondary support lies at 45.06 or the Jun '13 low. Additional support lies along 43.68-40.1 which is 38.2-50% retracement from 2012-14 rally.

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 96.32-97.34 88-90 79.41-81.87 105-107 109.73-111.46 116.55-116.95

Technical rating Neutral Sector Industrials


Rationale: A triangle breakout along 87-89 in late-2013 followed by a breakout above the 2013 high (100) signal the start of a technical recovery. Although we are encouraged to see this Industrial name maintained its 2010 uptrend (88-90) during recent correction we suspect further technical work is required before CAT can breakout above its key re-sistance at 116.55-116.95 (2011/2012 highs). In the near-term, initial supply resides at 105-107 or the 30-week ma, 9/10/14 gap down and extension of Nov '13 uptrend. Initial support moves up to 10/23/14 gap up (96.32-97.34).



Celgene Corp. (CELG)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20142020

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First Second Third First Second Third 101-103 96-98 84.5-88.5 108-109.25 119-120 128-128.50



Rationale: Similar to many Biotechnology names, a parabolic rally during 2012-2013 (240%) has created a steep up-trend channel. Despite two recent sell offs during Jan-Apr '14 (-23.5%) and Sep-Oct '14 (-13.8%) it appears that therelative strength continues to be strong. A recent breakout above Aug/Sep '14 highs at 96.44 also suggest intermedi-ate term strength. Next resistance lies along 108-109.25 or the recent Oct/Nov '14 highs. Clearing this supply can ex-tend the rally to 119-120 or the top of the 2012 uptrend channel. Initials support is 101-103 and then 96-98.

ConocoPhillips (COP)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 67.5-68.25 62-63 56-58.5 73-75 78-80 86-87



Rationale: A breakout above the low-60s in May ‘13 renders upside targets to the low-80s (near term) and then themid-80s (secondary). Both of these targets have been achieved prompting the Jul-Oct '14 correction. The ability of COP to find key support near the May 2013 breakout and the Feb '14 low at 62.36-63.21 may have stabilized the recentstrong selling. A subsequent positive outside week on 11/7/14 helps to reinforce the Oct 2014 bottom. Nonetheless, a potential head/shoulders top warns of further volatility until the left shoulder at 73-75 has been negated.



Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 130-132 126-128 120-122 140-142 152-153 160-162

Technical rating Bullish Sector Cons. Staples


Rationale: A well-defined 2009 uptrend channel bounded by 120-122 on the downside and 140-142 on the upside re-mains intact. As long as this trend continues, we retain our bullish technical view on this Consumer Retail stock. A con-vincing move above 140-142 confirms channel breakout and renders upside to 152-153, medium term and then to 160-162, longer term. A slightly overbought condition may develop into this rally. Failure to clear above 140-142 can lead to a consolidation to initial support at 130-132 or the 10-week ma. Secondary support lies near 126-128 or Sep '14 breakout.

Campbell Soup Co. (CPB)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 41.15-41.39 38-39.5 36-37 46.67-48.83 52.5-53.5 58-60/62.88



Rationale: An ascending triangle breakout in 2013 above the high-30s renders an upside target to 48-49, which was achieved during May ‘13 (48.83). Another 1-plus year triangle pattern still bodes well for higher prices. A convincing breakout above the May 2013 downtrend at 46-47 confirms breakout rendering upside targets to 48.08-48.83 (near term) or the May/Aug '14 highs, the mid-50s (medium term) and then the low-60s (longer term). Key initial support is near 41.15-41.39 or the Aug/Oct '14 lows, the Jun '12 uptrend and the 50-61.8% retracement from 2012-2013 rally.



CSX Corp. (CSX)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 34.29-34.39 32-33 29.75-30.77 37-38 40-41 45-47

Technical rating Bullish Sector Industrials


Rationale: Dow Jones Transportation Average continues to trade to all-time highs on the backdrop of lower oil prices. Despite the recent Sep-Oct '14 broad market correction DJT and CSX continues to set new price highs as evident by strong price momentum and relative strength readings. A positive outside month (Oct '14) breakout above the top of a 1-plus year uptrend channel at 32.5-33 can trigger the next major rally to the high-30s (near term) and then low-to-mid 40s (intermediate term). The low-to-mid 30s coinciding with the 10- /30-week ma is key support.

CenturyLink Inc. (CTL)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 37.64-38.79 35.69 33.75-34.25 41.69-41.99 43.43 44.67-46.87

Technical rating Neutral Sector Comm. Services


Rationale: The strong and persistent selling from 2013 has abated soon after a breakout of the declining channel (at 31) during Feb '14. A subsequent breakout above 32-33 as well as a golden cross weekly buy signal during Apr '14 hasextended the recovery phase. Although higher prices are possible, the primary trend remains down as there is formida-ble resistance along the 2008/2011 downtrend (not shown) near the 43. The ability to surpass this downtrend confirms a major breakout. Initial support moves up to 37.64-38.74 or the 7/29/14 gap up and near the Aug/Oct/Nov '14 lows.



CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 87-88 83.45-83.61 77.5-79 90-91 98-99 105



Rationale: The channel breakout during late 2012/early 2013 suggests upside targets to the low-to-mid 70s. CVS has surpassed this technical target reaching a record high of 83.45 during early Oct' 14 before a normal consolidation reset stock back to 77.40 (10/15/14). A positive outside month (Oct '14) as well as a subsequent positive outside week (11/7/14) and a recent breakout above top of 2011 channel at 87-88 suggest primary uptrend can continue. However, an overbought condition may lead to a normal consolidation back to its 10- /30- week moving averages at 79 and 83.

Chevron Corp (CVX)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 113-115 106.64-109.27 100.66 118-120 122-124 130-135



Rationale: Although this may be a leadership name within the Energy it also suffered an intermediate term setback dur-ing the sharp Oct '14 correction. A slight breech of the bottom of its pivotal 2011 uptrend channel at 116-117 and aweekly death cross sell signal warns of the potential of a top and a trend reversal. To signal a sustainable medium term recovery CVX needs to clear above key initial resistance at 118-120 or the Jun '14 downtrend, the 38.2-50% retracement of Jul-Oct '14 decline and Sep '14 breakdown. Initial support is at 113-115. Secondary support is at 106.64-109.27.



Dominion Resources Inc. (D)

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First Second Third First Second Third 70-71 67-68 64.71-65.53 73.75-74.59 77-79 84-85

Technical rating Bullish Sector Utilities


Rationale: The S&P Utility has been one of the best performing S&P sectors this year gaining 22.5%YTD as compared to SPX gains of 10.44% YTD. D has also gained 15.3% YTD outperforming SPX but lagging S&P Utility. The recent rally has slowed as D nears the mid-70s coinciding with the top of its 2009 uptrend channel as well as the top of the 2013 uptrend channel. A daily gap down on 11/11/14 suggests a near term trading range between 70-71 and 74-75. The larger trading range remains in the mid-60s (Aug/Oct 2014 lows) and the high-70s (top of the 2009 broadening top).

E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co. (DD)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 67-69 63-64.5 58-60 71-73 75-77.5 84-85

Technical rating Bullish Sector Materials


Rationale: The confirmed May ‘13 breakout of a triangle pattern (above 54.9) coupled with a 3-year ascending trian-gle breakout in Jul ‘13 (above 57-58) still render upside technical targets to 71-73 (near term), 75-77.5 (medium), 84-85 (intermediate) and 93-95 (longer term). The correction into late summer to early fall briefly violated the Nov 2013 uptrend. However, the ability to trade back above its 10- /30-week ma (69.25/67.5) and above recent Sep/Oct '14 highs of 72-73 alleviated an overbought condition allowing for a sustainable recovery. Key supports: 67-69/63-64.5.



Deere and Co (DE)

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First Second Third First Second Third 78-80 75-76 69-70 88-89 94-95.5 99-100



Rationale: Two triangle patterns dating back to 2010 and 2012, respectively still bodes well for a potential breakout in the future. The ability to find key support near 79-81 into the Sep-Oct '14 correction re-establishes the intermediate-to-longer term accumulation phase. However, DE is now challenging key initial resistance along the extension of the 2012uptrend as well as the 30-week ma at 88-89. A surge above this key supply zone can trigger a retest of the major re-sistance at the top of the two triangles around 94-95.5. Failure to retain 78-80 confirms a major technical break down.

Diageo PLC ADS (DEO)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 108-110 98.5-102 92.55-93.12 120-122 130-131 134.08

Technical rating Neutral Sector Cons. Staples


Rationale: Although the longer term trend still remains bullish, we have become increasingly concerned about the deterioration of this global consumer staples name over the past two years as evident by a break of a well-defined 1-plus year triangle between 117-118 and 131-134 during the Sep-Oct '14 market downturn. In addition, three negative outside months during Jan '14, Jul '14 and Sep '14 as well as the rolling of 10- /30-week ma (121/115) warn of a po-tential top. Nonetheless, an oversold condition can trigger a technical rally towards key initial supply at 120-122.



The Walt Disney Co (DIS)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 85.61-86.25 82.47-82.68 78.5-80 91-92 97-98 103-104

Technical rating Bullish Sector Cons. Disc.


Rationale: This leading Consumer Discretionary has broken out of a major 15-year technical base (not shown) above 43.26 during early 2012. This breakout renders upside to the mid-70s which was achieved late last year. Since then a 3+ year uptrend channel has developed as defined by the top of the channel or key resistance (97-98) and the bottom of channel or key support (78-80). A breakout above 91-92 suggests next upside to 97-98 and then 103-104. Howev-er, a gap down on 11/7/14 (90.02-91.15) hints of a consolidation to fill its 3 gap ups in Oct '14 near low-to-mid 80s.

Dow Chemical Co. (DOW)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving AverageSource: FactSet, UBS CIO WMR as of 13 November 2014

Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third 45-47 41.5-43 38-40.5 50-51 55-57 61-53

Technical rating Bullish Sector Materials


Rationale: Although we are tempted to lower our intermediate term technical outlook, last year's breakout above the top of an ascending triangle pattern at 36-37 is technically significant as this signals the start of a recovery. A subse-quent breakout above the 2008/2011 highs at 42.23-43.43 earlier this year reaffirms a sustainable turnaround and renders upside targets to 55-56.75 (Sep 2014/Mar 2005 highs), 61-63 (intermediate term) and then to 73-75 (longer term). Nonetheless, the sharp Sep-Oct '14 setback warns of a consolidation between low-40s and low-50s, near term.



Duke Energy Corp. (DUK)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 77-78 74.5-75.5 71.5 81.45-82.36 84-85 91-93



Rationale: The 5+ year uptrend channel remains intact between 71.5 and 85. The recent technical breakout above the mid-70s (74.5-75.5) coinciding with the May '13 and May '14 highs renders upside target to 84-85 (medium term) andthen to 91-93 (longer term). DUK has achieved its medium target on 11/5/14 trading to a high of 83.90. Failure tobreakout here coupled with a gap down (11/12/14) warns of a correction to 77-78 or the 10-week ma, 38.2-50% re-tracement from Aug-Nov '14 rally and the Aug '14 uptrend. Key support remains near the prior breakout (mid-70s).

EOG Resources (EOG)

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First Second Third First Second Third 90.99-93.56 86-87 81.07 103-105 110-112 118.81



Rationale: Similar to many of its Energy peers the sharp sell-off in Energy over the past few months has also impacted this leadership energy name. A number of near to intermediate term supports were breeched including: (1) 103-105 or the Jul '14 lows and the 30-week ma; (2) the large gap up on 5/6/14 (99.71-101.84); (3) 94-95 or the 38.2% retrace-ment from 2011 to 2014 rally. The ability to find key support at 80-81 has led to a technical oversold rally that appears to be stalling near key resistance along 103-105 creating a near term trading range between high-80s and 103-105.



Ford Motor Co (F)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 14.43-14.49 13.26-13.42 12.10-12.33 15.12-15.69 16.0-16.25 17.87-18.23



Rationale: During Oct '13 rally to 18.01, F failed to clear major resistance or the 2002/2011 highs (18.23-18.97). In the ensuing correction both of the 10-/30- week moving averages (14.88/16.17) and its Aug 2012 uptrend (15.5) were breached. F has broken its crucial 38.2% retracement (14.50) from Jul '12 to Oct '13 rally prompting the recent down-turn to 13.26 or to the 50% retracement (13.42) from 2012 to 2014 rally. The ability to find support here can lead to atechnical rally back to key resistance at 15.12-15.69 or the 38.2%-50% retracement from Jul to Oct '14 decline.

Facebook Inc. (FB)

Jul '12 Oct '12 Jan '13 Apr '13 Jul '13 Oct '13 Jan '14 Apr '14 Jul '14 Oct '14

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First Second Third First Second Third 69-71 66-67 62-63 76.88-79.57 81.16 85-87

Technical rating Bullish Sector Technology


Rationale: After outperforming the market during the broad Sep-Oct '14 market correction FB has suddenly weak-ened as evident by a large gap down during 10/29/14 (76.88-79.57) as well as a negative outside week (10/31/14). The above actions warn of the start of either a high level consolidation or a deeper correction. Key initial support resides at 69-71 coinciding with the bottom of a large Jul '14 gap up as well as the pivotal Aug 2013 uptrend and the 30-week moving average. The ability to maintain support here suggests a trading range between low-70s and the low 80s.



Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 99.25-102.5 95-97 91.73-92.63 110-111 115-117 129-131

Technical rating Neutral Sector HealthCare


Rationale: This Biotechnology name has rallied 83.98% from its recent Apr '14 low (63.5) to its Nov '14 record high (116.83). Although higher prices are possible the recent failure to clear above the top of a Broadening Rising Wedge pattern (115-117) hints of the potential for a consolidation. Nonetheless, the recent Sep-Oct '14 correction of -18.91% to 91.73 successfully tested a key support along the 50% retracement (90.17) from Apr to Oct '14 rally as well as the 30-week ma (94). This sets into motion the potential for a trading range between 95-97 and 115-117.

General Mills Inc. (GIS)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 47-49 46.18-46.20 43-44 53.82-55.64 58-60 65-66


Last Sale Price $51

Rationale: After being confined to a 4-plus year uptrend channel between the high-30s and the mid-40s, GIS finally broke out above the top of this range during Jan ‘13. This has ignited a sharp rally to new all-time highs at 53.07 by Aug '13 and then to another record high of 55.69 by Jun '14. Since then the stock has confined to a choppy trading range possibly consolidating its gains. Key support remains near 47-48 or near the convergence of a number of key trend lines. The ability to maintain support here can lead to another rally back to retest its recent highs at 53.82-55.64.



GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADS (GSK)

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First Second Third First Second Third 41.68-41.91 38.45-38.76 34-36.5 47-49 51.5-53 55.5-56.75

Technical rating Bearish Sector HealthCare


Rationale: GSK continues to diverge against many of its Healthcare peers violating important supports below the bot-tom of its 2013 uptrend channel at 52-53 and recently below the bottom of a major 5-year uptrend channel at 47-49.The Jul/Aug '14 break down reinforced a key intermediate term trend reversal. The healthcare name has now fallen to its Nov '12 lows near 41.68 thereby relinquishing almost all of its nearly 2-year gains. On a near-term basis, an extremeoversold condition has triggered a technical rally that may retest key initial resistance at its prior breakdown at 47-49.

Home Depot (HD)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20142020

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First Second Third First Second Third 93-95 86-88 81.56-83.25 99-100 103-105 120-123

Technical rating Bullish Sector C. Discretionary

Last Sale Price $99

Rationale: An accelerated channel breakout during early 2012 above mid-40s led to a much steeper 2-year uptrend channel. The violation of the bottom of the uptrend channel in the mid-70s during Aug/Sep 2013 warned of a top. However, this leading Home Improvement Retailer soon transitioned into a new trading range channel between 72.21-74.61 and 81.56-83.25. A recent breakout above the top of the channel at 83.1 renders upside targets to 93-94 (near term), 99-100 (medium), 103-105 (intermediate) and 120-123 (long-term). Initial support is 93-95 and then 86-88.



Honeywell International Inc. (HON)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 90-92 87-89 82.89 98.09 102-104 113-114



Rationale: A 13-year technical breakout in the low-to-high 60s during the late-2012/early-2013 (not shown) suggests higher prices, over time. However, on a near-to-intermediate term basis the strong rally over the past year has slowednear key medium term resistance at 98-100 or the top of its 2011 channel and Jul '14 record high. A convincing breakout here can help to extend the rally to 102-104 and then to 113-114. However, failure to surpass 98-100 cou-pled with an overbought condition can trigger a consolidation to key initial support along the low-90s to high-80s.

International Business Machines Corp (IBM)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014100100

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First Second Third First Second Third 140-145 125 100-105 170-180 195-200 215.90

Technical rating Neutral Sector Technology


Rationale: The technical weakness in this Technology name over the past two years is depicted by an AscendingBroadening Top pattern. The breakdown of the 2010 uptrend near the high-190s first warned of a potential top. A large downside gap also developed on 4/19/13 between 196.5 and 206.15. In due course, 8/1/14 and 10/10/14 nega-tive outside week patterns hint of further selling. Recently, a gap down on 10/20/14 suggests the bear remains in con-trol. While we note the negative developments, a deeply oversold condition may trigger a near term technical bounce.



Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 89-90 80 +/- 2 76.25 100 +/- 2 107-108 115-116



Rationale: A breakout above 59-60 during late-2012 reaffirms our bullish outlook. In addition, the surge above a 4-plus year rising uptrend channel during Apr/May ’13 in the low-70s is technically significant as this action can lead to the continuation of the uptrend. More recently, a positive outside month patterns on Aug '14 and Oct '14 should keepthe bulls optimistic. Considering near-term positive developments, we raise our initial support to 89-90 or the Jun/Aug/Sep '14 highs. Secondary support lies along 80 +/- 2 or near the Mar/Oct '14 lows and 2012 uptrend line.

Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 100 +/- 2 95 +/- 1 86.09 116-118 122-124 127-129

Technical rating Bullish Sector Healthcare


Rationale: In 2013, JNJ has finally broken out of its large multi-year technical base that dates back to the late-1990s. This breakout above the low-70s and then above the high-70s renders an intermediate-term target to 116-118. In ad-dition, constructive relative strength readings against S&P 500 Index favor higher prices, over time. However, the Ju-ly ’14 negative outside month pattern warns of a consolidation. Initial support lies along 100 +/- 2 or near the Jul/Aug '14 lows and 30-week ma. Secondary support is also available near 95 +/- 1 or the Jul/Aug/Nov ’13 and Jan ’14 highs.



Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB)

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First Second Third First Second Third 109.70 100 +/- 2 91.5-93 115-116 125-127 132-133



Rationale: Although we remain optimistic on the longer-term technical prospects of the stock, the following near term developments warrant a cautious near to intermediate term technical outlook: 1) A weekly death cross sell signal re-mains intact since Aug '14; 2) A negative outside month pattern on Jul '14 and 3) Continued longer-term relative weakness (since Apr '13) with reference to S&P 500 Index. Nonetheless, a positive outside month pattern in Oct '14 and recent breakout to new highs hint of the potential for higher prices, at least from a near term perspective.

L Brands Inc. (LB)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 68.50 +/- 1.5 60 +/- 2 53.03 82.50 85-86 89-90



Rationale: After a solid performance in 2013, LB's stock price performance had been volatile during 2014. A 12/6/13negative outside week pattern led to a 20% drop from its Dec ’13 highs. Also the Apr ’14 negative outside month pat-tern tested the conviction of the bulls. However, positive outside weeks on 5/9/14 and again on 6/27/14 paved the wayfor an impressive bounce back. A golden cross buy signal and superior relative performance favor higher prices. We recommend raising initial support to 67-70 or to the Dec '13 high and the 10-week moving average.



McDonald’s Corp (MCD)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 88 +/- 2 83.31 80 +/- 1 97.30 103.78 110



Rationale: 2009 uptrend (dash line) breakdown in 2012 triggered a sharp decline to the bottom of its 2008 uptrend. The ability to maintain 83.31 during this pullback has led to another technical rally to key near term resistance coincid-ing with the 2013/2014 highs at 103.78. A convincing breakout here can send MCD to 115-116, over time. However, repeated failures to breakout followed by a violation of 2008/09 uptrend (mid-90s) warn of a decline to the Oct '14 low (89.34) and the Jan ’13 gap up (86-89). Below this suggests next support at 83.31 or Nov ’12 lows/2003 uptrend.

McGraw Hill Financial Inc. (MHFI)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 85 +/- 2 75 +/- 2 70 +/- 1 93-94 100-101 106-107



Rationale: The bullish trend remains intact on MHFI as evident by a confirmed breakout of a 4-plus year uptrend channel along high-60s late last year. Despite a volatile year and the minor breech of the 1-year uptrend and the flat-tening of the 10- /30- week moving averages the ability to maintain the low-70s or the top of the five year uptrend channel breakout and a subsequent move to new all-time highs support the continuation of the primary bull trend. In addition, the Oct '14 positive outside month signals the next rally. Initial support is at 85 +/- 2 or Jun/Jul/Sep ’14 highs.



3M Co (MMM)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 145 +/- 3 130 +/- 1 125 +/- 1 166-167 174-175 181-182



Rationale: A classic inverse head and shoulder pattern breakout dating back to 2004 (not shown) offers bullish impli-cations, at least from an intermediate-to-longer term perspective. The upward sloping neckline corresponds to 107.50-108.50. The right and left shoulder corresponds to the high-60s and the low-70s, respectively. A breakout during the first quarter of 2013 and more recently a positive outside month pattern during Oct '14 reaffirms an accumulationphase. Initial support is at 145 +/- 3 or near the Jun/Jul/Sep '14 highs and 10- /30- week moving averages.

Atria Group Inc. (MO)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20141515

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First Second Third First Second Third 44 +/- 0.5 40 +/- 0.5 33-35 51-52 55-56 60-62

Technical rating Neutral Sector Cons Staples


Rationale: This defensive consumer staples name is showing recent technical strength despite a rare but well defined broadening wedge formation as denoted by a widening trading range between the mid-30s and the mid-to-high 40s. A breakout above the 2012 uptrend (shown above) has triggered a rally towards the top of the wedge. In addition,relative outperformance of the stock in recent months indicates defensive/income money favoring this name. While we note the above positive technical developments, the risk-reward profile is no longer attractive for traders/investors.



NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 98.63-102.51 90 +/- 0.5 86.12 108-110 113-114 118-119



Rationale: This Utility name continues to progress higher via a well-defined 3-year uptrend channel. The top of the uptrend channel in the low-110s offers key near term resistance. Despite the defensive nature of NEE, we remain en-couraged by the Oct '14 positive outside month pattern. Initial support lies at 98.63-102.51 or near the Apr/Jul/Aug '14 highs and 10- /30- week moving averages. Secondary support lies at 90 +/- 0.5 or near the Mar/Oct ’14 lows. Initial supply is near 108-110 and above this to 113-114. Intermediate-term targets remain 118-119.

Nestle S.A. ADS (NSRGY)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 65.79 63.38 61.50 74-76 78.52-80.65 84-86



Rationale: The long-term bullish trend from the 2009 lows still remains intact. In addition, a multi-year breakout above the 2008 highs (not shown) during 2010 reinforces the primary uptrend. However, since the mid-to-late 2011 the rela-tive strength trend against the S&P 500 Index has deteriorated indicating either a maturing trend or a lack of leader-ship/out of favor. Although the stock can continue to trend higher; it will likely appreciate at a slower pace than in the past and as a market performer this warrants a neutral outlook. Initial support is at 65.79 or near the Oct ’14 low.



Novartis AG (NVS)

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First Second Third First Second Third 84.42 80 +/- 2 75 +/- 1.50 95-96 100-101 106-107



Rationale: A convincing move above the multi-year highs in the mid-60s reinforces the intermediate term uptrend. In addition, the onset of an inverse head and shoulders pattern breakout on the longer-term charts (not shown from2005-2006) as well as a five year symmetrical triangle breakout is positive. A positive outside month on Feb ’14 can help to extend the 1-year uptrend channel. However, July '14 negative outside month pattern and 10/3/14 negativeoutside week pattern hints of a consolidation over the near-term. A move above 95.50 allow for new record highs.

Oracle Corp. (ORCL)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 35-36 32 +/- 1 29.52 42-43.19 46.47 50-52



Rationale: A surge above key resistance at 36.50 earlier in the year confirms a multi-year breakout. In addition, posi-tive outside month patterns in Dec ’13, Feb ’14 and Aug '14 signal higher prices. Although the Jun/Sep ’14 negative outside month warns of a consolidation, a move above 43.19 or the Jun '14 high can offset near term weakness allow-ing for a retest of 2000 record high at 46.47. Initial support lies at 35-36 or near the Feb/Oct '14 lows. Initial supply is at 42-43.19 or the Jun/Aug/Sep '14 highs and 30-week ma. Key resistance lies at 46.47 or the Sep 2000 highs.



Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 82.30-84.50 77-78 72-73 91-93 96-99.5 104.48-104.64



Rationale: A breakout of a 4-plus year symmetrical triangle pattern above the low-90s last year hints of a recovery. A subsequent positive outside month pattern during Feb/Aug ’14 signal a retest of the 2012 highs (106.68). However, anegative outside week appeared on 6/27/14 coinciding with the recent peak in WTI Crude Oil (107.68). An ensuing decline (-22%) may be nearing an inflection point as OXY tests key support near 82.3-84.5 coinciding with the 2011 uptrend, Oct/Nov '14 lows and the bottom of a bearish flag/pennant pattern at 82.3-84.5. Key initial supply is 91-93.

Pepsico Inc. (PEP)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 89.82 86 +/- 1 80 +/- 2 100-102 107-108 111-112

Technical rating Bullish Sector Cons Staples


Rationale: This Consumer Staples name has recorded new highs via a recent 4-year channel breakout. This important breakout renders upside targets into the low-100s, medium term. While the relative strength against SPX needs further work on an intermediate term basis; it has shown marked improvement at least over the near term. In addition, abreakout of the one year trading range between high-70s and high-80s, golden cross signal, rising moving averages and the Jul/Oct '14 positive outside month patterns keeps us positive. Initial support is at 89.82 or the Oct '14 low.



Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 27.12-28 24 +/- 0.50 21 +/- 0.50 31 +/- 0.50 32.50 +/- 0.50 34-35.50

Technical rating Neutral Sector Healthcare


Rationale: A 10-year downtrend breakout above 19 +/- 1 during 2011 (not shown) has ignited a major trend reversal favouring a sustainable recovery. From the 2009 bottom (11.62) this pharmaceutical name has retraced over 50%(30.83) of its 1999-2009 declines. However, repeated failures to maintain above the 50% level (30.83) coupled with a death cross signal (10-week ma crossing below 30-week ma) and the 2012 uptrend breakdown warrants a technical Neutral rating. Initial support lies near 27.12-28 or mid-2013 lows. Initial supply is at 31+/-0.5 or the Jul/Sep '14 highs.

Procter & Gamble Co (PG)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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Source: FactSet, UBS WMR as of 13 November 2014 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third 84-86 81.57 77.29 94.50 99-100 106.50



Rationale: The longer-term outlook for PG continues to be bullish. The 2009 uptrend channel breakout last year in the low-70s has met our technical projection of mid-80s. As PG traded towards the mid-80s in Nov ’13, two negative out-side weeks developed (11/29/13 and 12/13/13) and a head/shoulders top warned us of technical weakness. However, in recent months the relative strength versus S&P 500 has begun to stabilize. The recent Oct breakout above 85.82 and the Oct '14 positive outside month signals the start of the next major rally and hence our technical upgrade to Bullish.



Philip Morris International (PM)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 81 +/- 1 73-75 67-68 90-92 96.6-96.73 100

Technical rating Neutral Sector Cons Staples


Rationale: This Consumer Staples name retains its longer term bullish uptrend dating back to 2008/09. However, it needs to clear above its Apr/May 2013 highs of 96.6-96.73 to signal a sustainable, intermediate term recovery. A bear-ish rising wedge pattern and the convergence of two key moving averages warn of an impending battle between the bulls and the bears. Although the Jun ’14 negative outside month pattern will likely test the resiliency of the bulls, we note the onsets of 10/17/14 positive outside week as well as the Oct '14 positive outside may neutralize future selling.

Royal Dutch Shell PLC ADS Cl A (RDSA)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 65-67 61.5 +/- 1 57.97 72 +/- 2 79-80 83-84



Rationale: This energy name has also declined in sympathy with its energy peers falling 23% from Jul-Oct '14. This hasweakened both the absolute and relative (versus SPX) charts. Earlier, this Energy name showed technical signs of lead-ership by confirming its large 2011 symmetrical triangle above the low 70s. However, the stock failed to maintain its 2011 highs slipping back to crucial support at the mid-60s. Despite an oversold condition, a death cross sell signal (10 week ma crossing below the 30 week ma) warn of a choppy and volatile environment into the end of the year.



Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 70 +/- 1 66.30 62 80.64 82.50 88-89



Rationale: The bullish trend from the 2008-09 lows continues to suggest higher prices over longer term. Also, a multi-year breakout above the 2006 highs in late-2011 reaffirms an uptrend. An overbought condition has led a 1-year cor-rection. However, the ability of this stock to bounce from its Feb/Apr ‘14 lows (high 60s) is technically constructive as this signals an impending symmetrical triangle pattern between the high-60s and high-70s. A breakout above 79-81 renders upside to the low-80s and then to the high-80s. In anticipation of this breakout, we upgrade to Bullish.

St. Jude Medical Inc. (STJ)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 60 55 +/- 1 51 +/- 1 68-69 71.90 74-76



Rationale: We remain favorable on STJ due to last year's breakout above the mid-50s which has negated a five year head and shoulder top pattern prompting the recent rally to new highs. In addition, the Sep ’13 positive outside month formation and subsequent 10/04/13, 10/18/13, 12/06/13 and 5/2/14 positive outside weeks bode well for higher pric-es. However, the 7/11/14 negative outside week had led to a healthy correction (-23.8%) from the Jul '14 highs. That said a successful test of the mid-50s in Oct '14 coupled with a positive outside month helps to reestablish bull trend.



AT&T Inc. (T)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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Source: FactSet, UBS CIO WMR as of 13 November 2014 Support Levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third 33.5 +/- 0.5 31.74 27-28 37 +/- 0.5 39 42.79



Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. ADS (TEVA)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 52-54 47.36-48.35 44.50-45.10 61-62 64.95 68-69



Rationale: We maintain our technical Bullish rating based on the recent breakout of a large symmetrical triangle da-ting back to 2011. In addition, the Mar/May ’13 positive outside months as well as a successful breakout earlier in2014 reaffirms a recovery. Based on this successful breakout, targets to the mid-60s are possible, over time. The Oct '14 positive outside month pattern also keeps the bulls optimistic. Initial support now lies at 52-54 or near the 10- /30-week moving averages. Secondary support lies at 47.36-48.35 coinciding with the Mar/Apr/Oct ’14 lows.

Rationale: Although the longer term trend dating back to 2008/2009 remains favorable, we maintain a technical neu-tral stance on AT&T due to the mixed picture from both a relative strength basis and from an absolute price perspec-tive. A recent downtrend breakout hints of the start to a sustainable recovery. On the other hand, the weekly 10- /30-week moving average are flat. There is also a negative outside month pattern during Oct '14 and relative strength is trending sideways. Nonetheless, we are encouraged by the potential for a small triangle pattern breakout above 36-37.



Target Corp (TGT)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 62 +/- 2 56 +/- 2 47.25 70.75 73.50 77-78



Rationale: Despite a recovery from the 2008/09 lows, TGT has struggled into the end of 2013 and into early 2014.The 07/26/13 negative outside week formation first warned of selling pressure. The selling escalated into a 25.6% cor-rection from its Jun '13 highs (73.50). A subsequent break below the low-60s paints an increasingly weak technical picture from both an absolute and relative basis against SPX. On the contrary, we do not rule out a rally from oversold levels. A convincing move above 73.50 would warrant a rerating of the stock. Till then we keep our neutral stance.

Total S.A. ADS (TOT)

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First Second Third First Second Third 53.32 50.49 45.93 60-62 67.70-70 74.22



Rationale: This Energy name witnessed multiple breakouts starting with the 4+ year downtrend channel reversal dur-ing 2013 and signaled a recovery. A positive outside month in Feb ’14 month suggest higher prices. However, an over-bought condition coupled with the sudden weakness in the Energy sector led to a sharp pullback from mid-70s to mid-50s. A death cross sell signal (10-wk ma crossed below its 30-wk ma) and the Sep '14 negative outside month paints a weak technical outlook. 53.32 coinciding with the Oct '14 low is key initial support. 60-62 is key initial resistance.



US Bancorp (USB)

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First Second Third First Second Third 38 +/- 2 34.5 31-32 44 +/- 0.5 50-51 55-56



Rationale: This Financial stock has recovered all of its losses incurred during the subprime crisis. A move above its pre-vious all-time highs at 42.23 keeps bulls optimistic on this stock. However, USB has traded in sympathy with many of its Financial peers from mid-2014 highs. While we note the near-term relative underperformance of this stock to S&P 500 Index, we note the bullish primary uptrend over the past few years. A breakout above 44 or the Jun/Nov ’14 highs can extend the rally to the low-to-mid 50s. Initial support is 38 +/- 2 or the Feb/Oct '14 lows.

Visa Inc Cl A (V)

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First Second Third First Second Third 230-235 220 +/- 5 194.84 260-261 275-276 290-292



Rationale: We upgrade the technical outlook of V to Bullish. A solid 500%+ rally from 2008 lows broadly sum up the bull run in this stock. The stock witnessed an explosive rally from an absolute price and relative basis over the past 4+ years. However, the stock began to consolidate from mid-230s or near the Jan ’14 highs. A negative outside month in Mar ’14 and a death cross sell signal in May ‘14 signal a consolidation. However, this correction has ended via recent positive outside month breakout above its Jan '14 record highs at 235.50 during Oct '14.



Vodafone Group PLC ADS (VOD)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third

33 +/- 1 28.63 27.49 39 +/- 0.5 42.14 45-45.50



Rationale: In Aug ’13, this Communication Services name has completed a breakout above an extensive trading range as defined by 31 +/- 1 on the upside and 25 +/- 1 on the downside. An upside gap on 8/29/13 led to a positive outside week formation that extended the gains. After achieving a high of 42.14 in Feb ’14, which is marginally above its 2007 highs (near 41.58), an overbought condition developed. A violation of 2013 uptrend and the rolling of the 10-/30-week ma as well as deteriorating relative strength (versus S&P 500) suggest a neutral to defensive technical outlook.

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 46 +/- 1 40.50-41.50 35-37 53.66-54.31 57-59 62.29



Rationale: Although, a multi-year breakout above 2007 highs or 43.01 in late-2012/early-2013 is still constructive, the negative outside week patterns during 1/10/2014, 4/11/14, 4/25/14, 6/6/14, 8/1/14, 10/10/14 and relative underper-formance of the stock warn us of increasing weakness. A recent positive outside week pattern on 7/4/14 and 7/11/14 and a July/Oct ’14 positive outside month patterns are favorable. While we are encouraged about a recovery, the fre-quent moving average crossovers suggest further technical work is necessary. Initial support is at 45-47 or 2014 lows.



Walgreen Co. (WAG)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 57.75 54.86-55.27 51.60-53.76 71 +/- 1 76.39 80-81



Rationale: A 14% gap down on 08/06/14 not only hurt the near-term bullish trend but has also led to a weekly death cross sell signal. The question is whether this recent bearish action signals a top? Despite the near-term weakness, we remain cautiously optimistic on WAG as long as the stock retains its multi-year breakout in the low-50s. In addition, the 2/7/14 and 9/5/14 positive outside week patterns provide downside protection. Given the improved near-term risk-reward profile, we retain our technical Bullish view but recommend monitoring Dec '13 low at 54.86.

Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)

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First Second Third First Second Third 49-50 44.17-46.44 39.40-40.07 53-54 58-59 63-64



Rationale: A large ascending triangle and/or head and shoulders bottom pattern has developed over the past 4-plus years. This Financial name quickly rallied to resistance near its previous all-time highs of 44.68 established during Sep 2008. The sustainability of the stock above the Jun/Jul ‘13 highs has attracted new buyers. Longer term projections well into the high-50s to low-60s are possible based on the 4-year symmetrical triangle breakout. In the near-term, a sharp recovery during Oct '14 re-established its primary uptrend channel. Initial support is at 49-50 or near the Aug ‘14 lows.



Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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First Second Third First Second Third 75.59 70.25-71.50 67-68 87-88 91-92 94-95



Rationale: While we remain optimistic on WMT on a longer term basis due primarily to the completion of a 13-year breakout in 2012 along the mid-to-high 60s, 12/6/13, 5/16/14 and 6/13/14 negative outside week patterns have led to a trading range environment between low-70s and low-80s. Frequent moving average crossovers, relative underper-formance of the stock versus SPX and the Oct '14 negative outside month pattern warn of further technical base. Nonetheless, the recent consolidation may set the stage for a technical breakout above the Nov '13 highs at 81.35.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)

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First Second Third First Second Third 90 +/- 2 84.79-86.91 82.83 100.43 104.61 108-109



Rationale: A breakout above 95-96 last year signals the emergence of a leadership name within the Energy sector.That said, on a near-to-intermediate term basis, XOM has struggled to convincingly confirm a major breakout failing tofollow through to establish new highs. In addition, a breakdown below the bottom of its 4-plus year triangle signal further basing is needed. While 6/27/14 and 10/10/14 negative outside weeks and Jul '14 negative outside month hintof further consolidation a convincing surge above key initial resistances at 99-100 and 104.61 can reassert the uptrend.



Appendix

Description and Methodology This report provides technical analysis on a dynamic list of stocks that, we believe, are of a wide interest. Please note that technical views are highly variable and will change with market conditions. Accordingly, these rat-ings are only valid as of the publication date. Because CIO WMR equity sector analysts and WMR technical analysts employ different analytical methodologies, technical recommendations are, at times, contradictory to fundamental recommendations for the same security. For the latest company ratings by WMR sector analysts, please refer to the most recent equity sector research reports, located in the Equity Section on the Online Services Research website. For more background on the content of this report, please see Technical Analysis Research Primer, 18 February 2010.



Appendix

Term / Abbreviation Description / Definition

% +or- Moving Avg (DMA)

The percentage above or below the moving average (see Moving Average) is used to help measure an overbought or oversold condition and is a component of risk management. It is calculated by taking the difference between the group price and its 30-week moving average (see below), and then divid-ing by the 30-week moving average times 100.

30-Week Moving Average Also known as the 30-week line or 150-day line), this is one of the most popular and respected mov-ing average indicators (see Moving Average) in technical circles. It is calculated by totaling the latest 30 weekly (usually Friday closing) prices and dividing by 30 to arrive at the average. Each week, the most recent week’s figure is added to the total, and the price level from 30 weeks ago is subtracted –hence the term “moving.” Please note that a breakout above or breakdown below this line does not, in and of itself, constitute a buy or sell signal.

Adjusted Relative Strength (ARS) Number gives a 50% weighting to the 1-month relative strength, 30% to the 3-month, and 20% to the 6-month numbers to arrive at a single weighted number.

Base A chart pattern marking a period of accumulation following a downtrend. The larger the base, the greater the upside potential following its completion. A base can take many forms.

Beta A measure of volatility of a security as it relates to the market as a whole. Beta is often calculated using regression analysis. A beta is basically the tendency of a security’s returns to respond to swings in the market. A beta of 1 indicates that the security’s price will move with the market. A beta of less than 1 means the security will be less volatile than the market. A beta of greater than 1 implies that the security’s price will be more volatile than the market.

Blow off stage to a major rally This is often the last stage of a speculative bubble to a major rally. The blow off phase tends to be steep, but short-lived that often affords little opportunity for investors/traders to exit their positions. As price of a security or an asset advanced to an unsustainable level via a parabolic uptrend this give rise to the bursting of the speculative bubble resulting a quick and dramatic decline as inves-tors/traders try to exit the market/security at the same time.

Breakdown A technical term indicating a downside resolution of a chart pattern. Its significance is determined by the same factors governing a breakout.

Breakout A technical term indicating an upside resolution of a chart pattern. Breakouts can take many forms, and their degree of importance is determined by the significance of the chart pattern which preceded it.

Channel

A chart pattern comprised of two parallel trend lines, which form a trading band. Channels take the form of uptrend, downtrend and horizontal.

Death Cross The opposite of a golden cross, this is a crossover on the chart resulting from a security’s shorter-term moving average falling below its longer-term moving average. Technicians often see this as a bearish technical sign indicating the market has turned negative on the security.

Downtrend Line

A trend line connecting successively lower peaks for a stock (or market). Its technical significance is determined by the same factors governing an uptrend line.

Fibonacci Retracement Level A technical analysis term used to describe potential areas of support (price stops declining) or re-sistance (price stops rising) on the charts. After a strong rally or decline there is a tendency for a secu-rity to retrace a certain portion of its prior move (up or down). Fibonacci retracements use horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before continuing in the original direction. These levels are computed by taking the two extreme points and then dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

FSR Forecast Stock Return is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months.

Gap

An open space in a chart created when a stock (or market) opens either higher than its highest level attained during the prior session (referred to as a gap up or an upside chart gap) or lower than its lowest level reached during the prior day (called a gap down or a downside chart gap). Some gaps are caused by events and should be ignored: ex-dividend gaps, new share issues, and expiration of futures contracts.

Golden Cross A crossover on the chart that involves a security’s shorter-term moving average (such as the 50-day moving average) crossing above its longer-term moving average (such as the 150-day or 200-day moving average). Technicians often interpret this crossing of two moving averages as a bullish tech-nical sign that suggests the market has turned in favor of the security.



Appendix

Term / Abbreviation Description / Definition

Head-and-Shoulders Pattern This technical formation is one of the best known of the reversal patterns. There are two types of head-and-shoulders patterns that often appear on the charts – H/S top and H/S bottom. Both of these patterns often denote the process of a reversal either from a bullish or bearish trend. Head-and-shoulders formation often is comprised of a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder, and a line drawn across its shoulders defines its neckline. The breaking of the neckline to the upside confirms a head-and-shoulders bottom breakout, which signals the start of a bullish reversal favoring higher prices. The violation of neckline to the downside validates a head-and-shoulders top, reaffirming a bearish reversal of lower prices.

Internal Trend Line A single trend line connecting at least several high and low points for a stock (or market) over time.

Linear Regression Band A common statistical technique often used by investors/traders to better forecast values by utilizing the least squares fit method to plot a trend line. A linear regression band consists of upper and lower bands. These bands are calculated by computing the number of standard deviations above or below of the regression line.

Moving Average (m.a.) This is a technical indicator frequently used in technical analysis to show the average value of a secu-rity’s price over a set period of time. This tool is designed to smooth out a stock’s (or market’s) short-er-term fluctuations to provide a better picture of an underlying trend. Moving averages generally are used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages can be helpful as they emphasize the direction of the dominant or prevailing trend and also tend to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or “noise,” giving the trader or investor a clearer picture of the security in question. Many moving averages exist.

MRA Market Return Assumption is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for the equity risk premium and not a forecast).

Neckline Support/Resistance This is a trend line that is drawn across the bottoms or tops of the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders bottom or top pattern. When prices break through this neckline support level and continue falling after forming the right shoulder, it confirms a head-and-shoulders top formation. Conversely, neckline resistance is a trend line drawn across the tops of the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder. When prices break above this neckline resistance level and keep on rising, it typically completes the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern.

Overbought A technical condition in which the price of a security has risen to such a degree that the price be-comes overvalued or has reached the upper band of its trading range resulting in a potential pullback in price.

Oversold Opposite of Overbought. A technical condition that occurs when the price of a security has fallen to such a degree that the price becomes undervalued or has reached the lower band of its trading range prompting a potential rally.

Positive/Negative “Outside” Day

When one day’s range (high and low) exceeds the prior day’s range, and the stock (or market) in question closes near its daily peak, this is referred to as a positive “outside” day. A negative “out-side” day would be recorded if the stock (or index) finished near its daily low after having a wider range than the prior session. The same rule can be applied on a weekly and monthly basis as well.

Relative Strength

Relative strength is a performance comparison between a sector, group, or stock and the S&P 500 Index over a specified time frame. Our time frame is often a one-, three-, and six-month basis but does vary according to investment orientation.

RRD Rating/Return Divergence is automatically appended to the rating when stock price movement has caused the prevailing rating to differ from that which would be assigned according to the rating sys-tem and will be removed when there is no longer a divergence, either through market movement or analyst intervention.

Support An area where increased buying interest is likely to develop during a decline. These points, which can take several forms (minor, major, etc.), often provide downside protection for an issue in a primary uptrend, but only temporary relief to an issue in a primary uptrend, during which time many support levels are often broken.

Top A chart pattern marking a period of distribution following an uptrend. The larger the top, the greater the downside potential following its completion. It, too, can take many forms.

Triangle Patterns There are three different types of Triangle patterns – Symmetrical, Descending and Ascending. Sym-metrical Triangle is considered to be a continuation pattern that often signals a period of consolida-tion in a trend followed by a resumption of the prior trend. It is formed by the convergence of a de-scending trend and an ascending trend. An Ascending Triangle is a bullish pattern, which is denoted by two trend lines – a flat trend line and an ascending uptrend line. A Descending Triangle is a bear-ish pattern. It is the opposite of the Ascending Triangle in that there is a flat trend line and a down-ward sloping downtrend line.



Appendix

Analyst certificationEach research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that withrespect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect hisor her personal views about those securities or issuers; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directlyor indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.

Statement of RiskStock market returns are difficult to forecast because of fluctuations in the economy, investor psychology, geopoliticalconditions and other important variables.

Required Disclosures

For a complete set of required disclosures relating to the companies that are the subject of this report, please mail arequest to UBS CIO Wealth Management Research Business Management, 1285 Avenue of the Americas, 20th Floor,Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10019.CIO Wealth Management Research Stock recommendation systemAnalysts provide a relative rating, which is based on the stock’s total return potential against the total estimated returnof the appropriate sector benchmark over the next 12 months.

Industry sector relative stock view systemOutperform (OUT) Expected to outperform the sector benchmark over the next 12 months.Marketperform (MKT) Expected to perform in line with the sector benchmark over the next 12 months.Underperform (UND) Expected to underperform the sector benchmark over the next 12 months.Under reviewUpon special events that require further analysis, the stock rating may be flagged as “Under review” by the analyst.SuspendedAn outperform or underperform rating may be suspended when the stock's performance materially diverges from theperformance of its respective benchmark.RestrictedIssuing of research on a company by WMR can be restricted due to legal, regulatory, contractual or best business practiceobligations which are normally caused by UBS Investment Bank’s involvement in an investment banking transaction inregard to the concerned company.

Sector bellwethers, or stocks that are of high importance or relevance to the sector, that are not placed on either theoutperform or underperform list (i.e., are not expected to either outperform or underperform the sector benchmark) willbe classified as marketperform. Stocks that are rated Marketperform that are not sector bellwethers are not assigneda price target.

High Conviction CallsSector analysts are required to have at least one "high conviction" outperform or underperform call for each sector theycover. Analysts have discretion over the selection of a recommendation as high conviction and the grounds for selection(e.g., greatest upside/downside to price target, most/least compelling investment case, etc.). The basis for each highconviction call is set forth in any research report identifying a recommendation as such.

Disclosures (17 November 2014)3M Company 5, 8, 12, 13, 14, 15, 28; Altria Group 12, 13, 14, Amazon.com 4, 12, 13, 14, Amgen Inc. 5, 8, 11, 12, 13,14, 15, 18, 28; AstraZeneca 12, 13, 14, AT&T Inc. 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 28; Bank of America Corp. 5, 6, 8,11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 18, 28; Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 8, 14, 15, 27, BP 1, 5, 11, 14, 18, 28; Bristol-Myers Squibb 3, 5, 6,8, 12, 13, 14, 15, 28; Campbell Soup Co. 5, 6, 8, 12, 13, 14, 15, 28; Caterpillar Inc. 6, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, 27, CelgeneCorporation 6, 8, 11, 14, 15, CenturyLink, Inc. 5, 6, 14, 15, 18, 28; Chevron Corp. 6, 12, 13, 14, 15, Citigroup Inc 5, 6,8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 18, 26, 28; ConocoPhillips 5, 8, 14, 15, Costco 7, 12, 13, 14, CSX Corp. 5, 12, 13, 14, 18, 28; CVSHealth 12, 13, 14, Deere & Co. 12, 13, 14, 27, Diageo 11, 14, 18, 28; Dominion Resources 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 18,28; Dow Chemical 6, 8, 12, 13, 14, 15, 27, Duke Energy 5, 12, 13, 14, 18, 28; E I du Pont de Nemours and Co 5, 6, 8,12, 13, 14, 15, 27, EOG Resources 5, 12, 13, 14, 18, 28; ExxonMobil Corp. 6, 12, 13, 14, 15, Facebook 14, Ford MotorCo. 5, 8, 14, 15, 16, Franklin Resources Inc 6, 8, 12, 13, 14, 15, General Mills Inc. 6, 12, 13, 14, 15, Gilead Sciences 14,19, GlaxoSmithKline 11, 14, 28; Home Depot Inc. 12, 13, 14, Honeywell International Inc. 6, 12, 13, 14, 15, Illinois ToolWorks 2, 14, 20, 22, International Business Machines Corp. 5, 6, 8, 12, 13, 14, 15, 24, Johnson & Johnson 5, 6, 11, 12,13, 14, 15, 28; Kimberly-Clark 12, 13, 14, Limited Brands, Inc. 5, 14, 18, 28; McDonalds Corp. 12, 13, 14, McGraw-HillCompanies 12, 13, 14, 18, Nestlé 11, 12, 13, 17, 18, 27, 28; Nextera Energy Inc. 5, 14, 18, 28; Novartis 2, 5, 10, 11, 14,17, 18, 27, 28; Occidental Petroleum Corp. 2, 5, 11, 14, Oracle Corporation 6, 12, 13, 14, 15, PepsiCo Inc. 5, 6, 8, 11,



Appendix

12, 13, 14, 15, 18, 28; Pfizer Inc. 6, 12, 13, 14, 15, 25, Philip Morris International 5, 11, 12, 13, 14, 18, 28; Procter &Gamble 5, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 18, 28; Royal Dutch Shell 5, 11, 14, St. Jude Medical, Inc. 14, Starbucks Corp. 8, 14,15, Target Corporation 14, Teva Pharmaceuticals 2, 14, TOTAL 11, 14, 18, 28; U.S. Bancorp 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 18,28; United Parcel Service 6, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 28; Verizon Communications 5, 12, 13, 14, 18, 28; Visa Inc. 6, 8, 14,15, Vodafone Group 1, 11, 14, 21, 28; Walgreen Co. 12, 13, 14, Wal-Mart Stores 6, 8, 12, 13, 14, 15, Walt Disney Co.12, 13, 14, 23, 27, Wells Fargo & Company 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 18, 27, 28;1. UBS Limited acts as broker to this company.2. UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of this company's common equitysecurities as of last month's end (or the prior month's end if this report is dated less than 10 days after the most recentmonth's end).3. A U.S.-based global equity strategist, a member of his team, or one of their household members has a long commonstock position in Bristol-Myers Squibb.4. A U.S.-based global equity strategist, a member of his team, or one of their household members has a long commonstock position in Amazon.com Inc.5. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Securities LLC, and investment bankingservices are being, or have been, provided.6. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Securities LLC, and non-investmentbanking securities-related services are being, or have been, provided.7. A U.S.-based global equity strategist, a member of his team, or one of their household members has a long commonstock position in Costco Wholesale Corp.8. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Securities LLC, and non-securities servicesare being, or have been, provided.9. A U.S.-based global equity strategist, a member of his team, or one of their household members has a long commonstock position in Caterpillar Inc.10. UBS AG is acting as agent in regard to Novartis AG's announced share buyback programme.11. UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking servicesfrom this company/entity within the next three months.12. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Financial Services Inc, and non-investment banking securities-related services are being, or have been, provided.13. Within the past 12 months, UBS Financial Services Inc has received compensation for products and services otherthan investment banking services from this company.14. UBS Securities LLC makes a market in the securities and/or ADRs of this company.15. Within the past 12 months, UBS Securities LLC has received compensation for products and services other thaninvestment banking services from this company/entity.16. A U.S.-based global equity strategist, a member of his team, or one of their household members has a long commonstock position in Ford Motor Co.17. UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries held other significant financial interests in this company/entity as of last month'send (or the prior month's end if this report is dated less than 10 working days after the most recent month's end).18. UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has acted as manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securitiesof this company/entity or one of its affiliates within the past 12 months.19. A U.S.-based global equity strategist, a member of his team, or one of their household members has a long commonstock position in Gilead Sciences Inc.20. UBS Securities LLC is a named advisor to Clayton, Dubilier & Rice for its announced agreement to acquire WilsonartInternational from Illinois Tool Works and is also providing financing.21. UBS Limited is acting as agent on Vodafone Group Plc's announced share buyback programme.22. A U.S.-based global equity strategist, a member of his team, or one of their household members has a long commonstock position in Illinois Tool Works Inc.23. The U.S. equity strategist, a member of his team, or one of their household members has a long common stockposition in The Walt Disney Company.24. An employee of UBS AG is an officer, director, or advisory board member of this company.25. A U.S.-based global equity strategist, a member of his team, or one of their household members has a long commonstock position in Pfizer Inc.26. A U.S.-based global equity strategist, a member of his team, or one of their household members has a long commonstock position in Citigroup.27. The equity analyst covering this company, a member of his or her team, or one of their household members has along common stock position in this company.28. Within the past 12 months, UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has received compensation for investment bankingservices from this company/entity.



Appendix

Disclaimer

In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA. This publication is for our clients’ information only and is not intended as an offer, ora solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or takeinto account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific recipient. We recommend that recipients takefinancial and/or tax advice as to the implications of investing in any of the products mentioned herein. We do not provide tax advice. The analysiscontained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. Other than disclosuresrelating to UBS AG, its subsidiaries and affiliates, all information expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliableand in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy or completeness. All information and opinionsare current only as of the date of this report, and are subject to change without notice. This publication is not intended to be a completestatement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the report. Opinions may differ or be contrary to those expressedby other business areas or groups of UBS AG, its subsidiaries and affiliates. Chief Investment Office (CIO) Wealth Management (WM)Research is published by UBS Wealth Management and UBS Wealth Management Americas, Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affiliatethereof. CIO WM Research reports published outside the US are branded as Chief Investment Office WM. UBS Investment Research is writtenby UBS Investment Bank. Except for economic forecasts, the research process of CIO WMR is independent of UBS Investment Research. 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