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Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2006
SCF Associates Ltd
All rights reserved No reproduction without [email protected]
Competitiveness in Emerging Competitiveness in Emerging Robot Technologies Robot Technologies
(CEROBOT)(CEROBOT)The opportunities in safety and The opportunities in safety and
robots for SMEsrobots for SMEs
Simon ForgeColin Blackman
TECHNO economic ANALYSIS
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 2
Sense•Eg, Detect presence of organs, using vision system with pattern recognition, or
•Detect obstacle, or threat with lidar, or
•Detect bone tissue, not soft tissue with sonar, or
•And
•Detect/ confirm position of ‘limbs’ or end effectors, using stepper motor feedback
Think•Warn and/or act immediately
•Eg, Supply energy to actuators and tools for arm, or
•Flex leg muscles for walking, or
•Give haptic feedback to control arm for surgeon for remote surgery
•Eg, Execute PC-controller programme for this trigger input, with stored programme, or
•Process inputs in a decision and planning module ( eg with simple AI such as a neural network) or
•Obey instructions previously given verbally by a human, interpreted and stored in run-time memory
Act
Basic robot functions - sense, ‘think’ and act
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 3
HighHighLowNanorobotics
MedMedLowSwarms and co-operating robot teams
LowLow/MedMandatoryPower suppliesMedMedMedGripping/placingMed/HighMedLowBio-mimetic movement MediumMediumMediumMobility & motionMedMedMed/highPositioning systemsMed/HighMedHighVision comprehension systems HighMed/highLowCognitive and learning systemsMediumMed/highHigh /mandatorySystem integrationHighHighHighHuman interactionHighHighHighSensor fusion
Complexity (as barrier to entry)
Added value
Likelihood of use in applications
Key robotics technologies
Future development directions of robots lie with 12 key technology areas
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 4
Future technological developmentFurther market expansion requires developments in certain key areas:
•Biggest challenge - software- must be robust and open (eco-system), self-healing autonomic, standard across robots and tasks, flexible for new problems and sensors not yet imagined, with SDKs - note mainstream software industry entering
•Power supplies – better power/weight/volume for energy density is for longer autonomy, critical for wider use of mobile robots
•Interfacing with sophisticated sensors in standard ways – connecting up a vision system is not straightforward today - lack of international open standards
•Industry standards for the more sophisticated sensors and process tools will evolve over the next decade, needed to accelerate systems integration and reduce the cost as special adaptors in software and hardware may be avoided, making the integration task easier and cheaper, and so open up the whole robotics field.
•Cognitive processing for safety (eg Asimov’s three laws enacted) and far more capability – needs more intelligent capacity + cognitive processing eg for job learning by demo, human interfacing, scene recognition, etc.
•Education in robotics – if the EU is to compete globally it needs better degree and vocational level education in systems integration in robotics, as much as the robots themselves. Current initiatives are national, eg in Italy - EU level also needed.
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 5
Likely timescale for innovation for certain advances
LaboratoryLaboratoryLaboratoryIroning robot – combining unstructured shape recognition, textile understanding, sensitive tactile manipulation, precision
Developed for limited production for service robots but high cost
Pilot projects and some special market segments for limited roles
Laboratory – collision free movements
Humanoids – with full biomimetic functions & cognitive capability for useful interaction, domestic or industrial
Complex teaching robots in full mass production
Simple, limited education robots in limited production
Toys and model kits in mass production, simple forms
Expressive robotics – teaching and entertainment Robots
Pilot scale application in social situations
Laboratory and pilotsLaboratory and pilotsHigher emotional intelligence for human interaction – humanoids with empathy, facial expressions, etc
Developed for limited production for service robots but high cost
Limited use in pilot projects
LaboratoryHuman interaction in adaptive manner, speech, gestures etc for collaboration and co-working
Developed for production in high end machines
Pilot scale projectsLaboratory, links to CYC and prior knowledge bases
Higher cognitive ability – common sense ie human real world logic, eg to understand and obey the 3 laws of robotics with respect to humans
Reliable vocabulary for multiple familiar speakers with complex sentences using human style language learning for responses, in high noise environments – lip reading
Reliable 300 word vocab., for known speakers, simple sentences, semi-random response, some background noise
Very simple phrases and 100 word vocab., known speakers, specific situations (strongly typed, low background noise)
Natural language processing for human interaction - interface for instruction, replaces programming, with usefully low error rate (< 0.2%)
20 years10 years5 yearsTime scale
Innovation
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 6
How future robots will fit in : application scenarios and roles for robots vs sectors
XXXXSpace
XXXXSecurity
XXXXDomestic service
XXXXXXProfessional service
XXXIndustrial
Edutainment robots
Robots for exploration & inspection
Robots for surveillance & intervention
Logistics robots
Robotic co-workers
Robotic workers
Roles
Sectors
•Food processing•Hazardous environments/space•Security/defence•Agriculture•Medical and care services for all ages•Professional service and edutainment•Domestic service •Toys•Transport•Future industrial manufacturing
Future applications for robots will expand use and take-up
Source : EUROP, Strategic Research Agenda, 2009
Futuregrowthsectors
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 7
Estimated worldwide yearly shipments of industrial robots (‘000s)
1991 2000 2008
140
100
40
0
Source: World Robotics 2009
State of the global robotics market (2005)
The market for robotics
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 8
Industrial robots are used most by the auto industry with Asia as the largest market
Units
Estimated yearly supply of industrial robots by regions 2005 -2007
Industrial robots by industry sector and application
Source: IEEE Spectrum, 2009, http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/industrial-robots/the-rise-of-the-machines
Source: World Robotics 2008
Asia
Europe
Americas
200720062005
0 50,000 80,000
AUTO
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 9
A realistic current market assessment:•Slow growth overall in sales revenues is the most likely forecast•The number of industrial robots in the future depends on how the auto industry recovers – and its future production might be less dependent on robots than in the past•Sales of relatively low cost domestic and personal service robots (vacuum cleaners, mowers, toys, entertainment) likely to recover as recession ends - small market, overall •Professional and service robots segment may be high potential as an undeveloped market. Currently dominated by military applications - may remain so. •Despite lack of take-up last 5 years, opportunities in health/medical and field robots -perhaps strong chance for growth
In summary: a dispassionate view of the industry today
Source: IEEE Spectrum, http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/industrial-robots/the-rise-of-the-machines
Top 10 countries by robot density, 2008
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 10
The robot is less than half the applications system cost in an industrial system application
Source : Mauro Onori, KTH, Sweden , 2003, Automatic Assembly Systems/ B. Carlisle, Adept Technologies, USA, flexible assembly robotics example
Robot
Programming
40% Cost
30
20
10
0
Feeders Grippers&
Tooling
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 11
R&D Manufacture Marketing AfterIPR sales
Basic robot manufactureIntegration into target application environment
After sales
Testand
correct
Generic Robotics Value Chain
For each extra system
•Control, communications and coordination systems including activity simulation systems
•Sensor systems•Actuator system/ End effectors
•Tool systems
•Safety systems
Auxiliary systems for systems integration
•Power/utility systems- electric, pneumatic, hydraulic, light, coolants
SystemsIntegration
Bought-in components manufacture
•Control, communications and coordination systems
•Sensors•Actuators/End effectors•Power/utility systems
R&D Manufacture Marketing AfterIPR sales
R&D Manufacture Marketing AfterIPR sales
Re-use of robotIn new application, when current process updated, with new tools and further systems integration
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 12
Some of the key players by position in the value chain
Peak RoboticsMany white label suppliers as for consumer electronics (eg for iRobot Roomba)Hon Hai (Taiwan)Active Link (Taiwan)
OEM – white label manufacturing for others in bulk volume
PittmanApplied MotionHoneywellDelta TauGEAdvanced Motion Control
Nanjing SuquiangNumerical Control (brushless AC & DC Servos)Alteks (Taiwan)Topband (Taiwan)Winbond (Taiwan)Sonix (Taiwan)Shayang Ye
SamsungKorea Robot IncJungwooMetronixBan SeokDong Woon
DensoYaskawaFanucSanyoTamagawaSanyo DenkiToshiba
Faulhaber (CH)HarmonicDrive AG (D)Pilz GmbH (D)GVH GmbHSSB DuradriveSEM (UK)ParvexSick (D)
Supplier of standard products –sensor, motors, batteries, actuators, etc to branded robot manufacturers
Applied RoboticsAlio IndustriesPeak Robotics
Siasun RobotCSEMNC (China Shipbuilding)
Korea Robot IncDSME
OkuraDensoFanuc
R U Robotics (UK)Star Automation
Engineering of special components
Buckeye MachineWolf RoboticsInnovation MatrixPeak Robotics
Siasun RobotTriadtech (Taiwan)Acme Manufg.
DSME (shipyardsAitnix
FanucDenso
M3R U RoboticsGeku
Systems integration specialist
Adept (industrial)iRobot (domestic service, military)Raytheon (mil)McDonnell Douglas (mil)GE (industrial)GenmarkOTC/MillerGM (industrial & space)
Cengdu Great IndustrialHangzhou FivestarHiwin (Taiwan)FarGlory (Taiwan)Apex (Taiwan)Microstar (Taiwan)Shenzen Silver Star (robot vac cleaner)
HyundaiDSME (Daewoo)SamsungRobostar
DensoEpsonFanucKawasakiMotoman/YaskawaOTC DaihenOkuraStar SeikiToshiba
ABB (S), KUKA (D) Comau (I)Qinetiq (UK)Aldebaran (F)Reis Robotics (D)British AerospaceIGM (Au)Staubli (CH))Lely (ND)
Original robot designer and supplier, as a branded product
USAChina/TaiwanKoreaJapanEuropePlayer type
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 13
The EU’s strongest area - suited to its i industry structure of many SMEs
HighStrong - world-classSystems integration
Lots of bespoke systems with basic knowledge and experience
HighStrong - world-classSpecialised software for cognition and machine intelligence
A wide range of specialist packages available to integrate
HighStrong - world-classSpecialised software for manufacture / process control
Well-developed in radio systems and iGPS
MediumStrong - world-classCommunications and radio positioning
Lots of R&D effort has produced strong offerings in specialist sensors
MediumStrong - world-classSensors
Good at special systemsHighMedium/strongElectro-optics
Major producer Japan. China/Taiwan and Korea entering.
MediumWeakPower supplies including batteries, fuel cells and MICE
Major producers: China, Korea, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, etc and also USA for microcontrollers and microprocessors
Low margins except for some specialised signal processing and high power processors
Weak - some exceptions in special processors. Absent some categories, eg passive components
Electronic components
Major producer Japan. China/Taiwan and Korea entering.
Low margins except at high end, and all currently descending
Fairly strong only at the high end for precision servo motors, etc
Electromechanical components
Some design in Europe (eg Karchner) but manufacture largely in Asia. Japan may be ahead in humanoids.
LowWeakRobotics manufacture for domestic service robots
At level of Japan, Korea and USAMediumStrong - world-classRobotics manufacture for professional service robots
At level of Japan, Korea and USAMediumStrong - world-classRobotics manufacture for industrial applications
CommentAdded valueEU positionArea
Assessing Europe’s position across the value chain segments
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 14
Disruptive potential - Routemap projections: developments to 2020 for robotics applications and their technologies
Technology area advance, in volume productionn
Entry-level,specialisedand niche, minoritytechnology,costly
Major growth -competes with non-robotic processes &/or technologies
Accepted, withmarket pricing as amainstreamtechnology
General level of acceptance
2010-2015 2016-2020
Industrial manufacturing, in medium and large enterprises
Domestic service for Elderly care support
Domestic service robots for other than disabled and elderly
Medical and healthcare robotics
Professional Service
3
Road vehicle management
Agriculture and food processingToysToys
1 Tactile sensing in surgery
2 Implementation of effective safety laws for co-working with humans
3 Simple spoken instructions with reasonable rate of understanding
1
2
Industrial manufacturing, in small and micro- enterprises
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 15
•Agreement to consider “techno-market areas” rather than just technologies•Crucial that demand-side taken into account •Thus two criteria used for selection:
•Market opportunity•EU capability
These criteria were applied to the following candidates identified in Step 1 and selection workshop:
1 EU ecosystem of robotics industry suppliers2 SME Industrial manufacturing3 Health, including surgery, care for elderly, and hospital services 4 Sensors as a cross-cutting technology5 Safety for robotics, including human interaction6 Food processing and agriculture7 Future large-scale industrial manufacturing8 Applications in environmental industries
•Consensus reached on 1) SMEs and 2) safety
Selection of two areas for further study
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 16
SME:• Increasing SME productivity is key to enabling EU competitivity• Most SMEs lag behind in take up• Will create new products and jobs• EU competence for large corporations is world class which could be adapted
Safety:• Safety is a key barrier – overcoming it will drive whole industry and give EU global lead• New, safe robots will facilitate applications in co-working – potentially large market• EU already has competence with skills at a worldwide level• Will drive other technical areas with high added value and intellectual capital
Market opportunity and capability in the 2 areas
Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 17