Technologies of Climate Change Mitigation

Climate Parliament Forum, May 26, 2011

Prof. Dr. Thomas Bruckner

Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management (IIRM)

University of Leipzig, Germany

johnthescone

The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)

Renewable Energies in the 4th Assessment Report

Volume III of the IPCC AR4 comprises 850 pages; only 8 pages are explicitly devoted to renewable energies (RE).

The IPCC SRREN

The IPCC Panel approved the development of the IPCC SRRENat its 28th Session, held in Budapest on April 9-10, 2008.

The IPCC SRREN

The Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) was approved on May 9, 2011.The electronic version of the entire report will be published on

May 31, 2011.

The current global energy system is fossil fuel dominated.

Current share of RE in the primary energy supply

RE show a rapid growth in the provision of primary energy supply.

150 GW of new RE power plant capacity was built in 2008-2009.

This equals approximately 50% of all power plants built during that period.

Recent increase of RE in the primary energy supply

Climate stabilization goal

Carbon budget (limit on cumulative emissions)

CO2-emissions trajectory

Freely emitting fossil fuels Zero- or low-carbon energies: RE, nuclear, CCS

Selection of a portfolio based on:Economic competitionEnvironmental impacts Security aspectsSocietal aspects

Share of renewable energies in the provision of primary energy supply

“Scale”: Energy services and resulting energy needs

Energy efficiency

CO2 concentration limit

RE and climate change mitigation

RE and climate change mitigation

Source: IPCC, AR4, Synthesis Report, p. 20

RE and climate change mitigation

Global RE primary energy supply from 164 long-term scenarios versus fossil and industrial CO2 emissions.

RE and climate change mitigation

RE deployment increases in scenarios with lower greenhouse gas concentration stabilization levels.

RE and climate change mitigation

The global technical potential of RE sources will not limit continued growth in the use of RE.

Technical potential

The levelized cost of energy for many RE technologies is currently higher than existing energy prices, though in various settings

RE is already economically competitive.

Current costs

Current costs

RE costs have declined in the past and further declines can be expected in the future.

Historic cost trends

Integration characteristics of RE technologies

As infrastructure and energy systems develop, in spite of the complexities, there are few, if any, fundamental technological limits to integrating a portfolio of RE technologies to meet a majority share of total energy demand in locations

where suitable RE resources exist or can be supplied.

Lifecycle GHG emissions of RE technologies

Lifecycle GHG emissions of RE technologies

Direct GHG emissions from modern bioenergy chains (excluding land use change effects)

• The sustainability of bioenergy, in particular in terms of life cycle GHG emissions, is influenced by land and biomass resource management practices.

• The greenhouse gas balance of biofuels can be affected by direct and indirect land-use changes.

• Proper governance of land use, zoning, and choice of biomass production systems are key challenges for policy makers.

• Economic development: Historically, economic development has been strongly correlated with increasing energy use and growth of GHG emissions. RE can help decouple that correlation, contributing to sustainable development (SD).

• Energy access: RE can accelerate access to energy, particularly for the 1.4 billion people without access to electricity and the additional 1.3 billion people using traditional biomass.

• Energy security: RE deployment can reduce vulnerability to supply disruptions and market volatility.

• Accident risks: In general, renewable energy technologies have low fatality rates.

• Co-benefits (environmental and health benefits): Maximizing these benefits depends on the specific technology, management, and site characteristics associated with each RE project.

RE and sustainable development

RE and Climate Change Mitigation Policies 2004

Policy support and enabling conditions

RE and Climate Change Mitigation Policies 2011

Policy support and enabling conditions

Policy support for RE

• An increasing number and variety of RE policies have promoted an increase in RE capacity installations, especially, by helping to overcome various barriers.

• Public R&D investments are most effective when complemented by other policy instruments, particularly deployment policies that simultaneously enhance demand for new technologies.

• Some policies have been shown to be effective and efficient in rapidly increasing RE deployment. However, there is no one-size-fits-all policy.

• In addition to GHG pricing policies (e.g., emission trading), RE specific policies may be appropriate from an economic point of view if opportunities for technological development are to be addressed (or if other goals beyond climate mitigation are pursued).

• ‘Enabling’ policies support RE development and deployment.

Mitigation costs

Contact:

Prof. Dr. Thomas Bruckner Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management (IIRM)

University of Leipzig, Germany

bruckner@wifa.uni-leipzig.de

http://www.uni-leipzig.de/energiemanagement/

johnthescone

The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)

RE and climate change mitigation

Source: IPCC, AR4, Synthesis Report, p. 20

Potential emissions from remaining fossil resources could result in GHG concentration levels far above 600ppm.

Historic and prospective use of fossil fuels

… for instance growth in size of typical commercial wind turbines.

Future technological trends