Page 1
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 1
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is
supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP.
This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not
be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
Technology and policy
Delivering the UK’s future energy system
David Clarke
Chief Executive
Page 2
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 2
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is
supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP.
This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not
be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
System level strategic planning
Technology development and demonstration
Informs effective decision making
Underpins national energy systems policy
Develops capacity, technology and engineering
Increases investor confidence
Page 3
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 3
Making energy policy work for the UK
Energy
power, heat, transport,
infrastructure
Wealth creation
gross value added,
direct employment,
secondary jobs and
impacts, exports,
inward investment
Capacity
Skills, training,
infrastructure, science,
R+D
Page 4
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 4
What might the UK energy system look
like in 2050...
• Decided by global developments – not just
UK events, decisions and policy
– UK and global economy
– Industry and technology developments
– UK demand changes – scale and
segmentation
– Global socio-political events
– International market confidence
– ....
• The future is uncertain and we need an
energy system design that allows for this
Page 5
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 5
ESME is a design tool .... Integrating power, heat, transport and infrastructure
Page 6
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 6
• Focus on the ‘big levers’ is crucial to maximise impact of
scare resources - money, skills, supply-base and time
• Investment in innovation is critical to reduce costs
• Engagement of industry and consumers is essential
• ETI view immediate development priorities for 2050 as...
– Efficiency (technology, consumer demand, storage)
– Nuclear
– CCS
– Bio energy
– Offshore wind
– Gas for transport
Effective national policy needs to focus
on things which will ‘move the dial’
Page 7
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 7
2050 abatement cost is <1% GDP Biomass and CCS are key levers, nuclear is part of the
‘base platform’
£2010(Mean)/year
Total system cost £294bn
Abatement cost £26bn (0.7%
GDP)
Average cost £51/tCO2
Marginal cost £360/tCO2
No biomass +£44bn
No CCS +£42bn
No nuclear +£4bn
No tech devt* +£106bn
*Assumes current technology cost/performance
Page 8
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 8
2050 CO2 target is unaffordable with
today’s technologies
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% UK Committee
on Climate
Change target
Current technology
capability
UK Energy GHG Reduction (including aviation and shipping)
2050 marginal UK system cost
2010 £/Te CO2
Page 9
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 9
ETI projects focus on
reducing these levels
further
Successful technology
selection, innovation and
development
2050 abatement costs can be acceptable if ..... we develop and apply the optimum technologies
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% UK Committee
on Climate
Change target
Current technology
capability
Expected improvement in
technology capability
UK Energy GHG Reduction (including aviation and shipping)
2050 marginal UK system cost
2010 £/Te CO2
Page 10
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 10
UK energy policy
Will it deliver?
• The assured availability of affordable,
sustainable energy is a critical element in
delivering long-term economic development
and growth
• UK policy will deliver a system that
combines these 3 elements but ...
– Will it meet the targets?
– Will it be the optimum solution?
• Success will need industry and finance to
be persuaded to invest in...
– widespread innovation
– major, long-term infrastructure developments (in
an uncertain market)
Page 11
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 11
UK Energy policy Must support and be supported by ‘the bigger picture’
Must operate in a global market
Energy
power, heat, transport,
infrastructure
Capacity
Skills, training,
infrastructure, science,
R+D
Wealth creation
gross value added,
direct employment,
secondary jobs and
impacts, exports, inward
investment
Page 12
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 12
UK Energy policy Must support and be supported by ‘the bigger picture’
Must operate in a global market
Energy
power, heat, transport,
infrastructure
Capacity
Skills, training,
infrastructure, science,
R+D
Wealth creation
gross value added,
direct employment,
secondary jobs and
impacts, exports, inward
investment
Stable regulation
Known liabilities
Proven value chains
Page 13
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 13
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is
supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP.
This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not
be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
Delivering low carbon energy technologies
Supporting economic growth
www.eti.co.uk
by... Informing policy
Building partnerships
Delivering innovation
Sharing risk
Creating affordability
Page 14
©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 page 14
For more information about
the ETI visit www.eti.co.uk
For the latest ETI news and
announcements email
[email protected]
The ETI can also be
followed on Twitter at
twitter.com/the_ETI
Energy Technologies Institute
Holywell Building
Holywell Park
Loughborough
UK
LE11 3UZ
For all general enquiries
telephone the ETI on
+44 (0)1509 202020.
