Technology in Service of Society

Raj ReddyCarnegie Mellon University

November 25, 2005

Technology Trends A Giga-PC in 2000

Billion operations per second, Billion bits of memoryBillion bits per second Network bandwidthLess than $2 k

A Tera-PC by the year 2015 A Peta-PC by the year 2030

Exponential Growth Trends in Computer Performance

102400

100

200

400

800

1600

3200

6400

12800

25600

51200

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

MIPS

Giga PC

10G PC

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

204800

409600

819200

1638400 Tera PC

100G PC

Doubling every 15 months

Doubling every 2 years

What do we do with all this power? Social systems not affected:

Food we eat Clothes we wear Mating rituals

The computing will transform the way, weLiveLearnWork, andCommunicate

Using Technology In Service of Humanity

Helping Aging population Disaster Rescue Accident-Avoiding Cruise Control Access to Information and Digital

Libraries Access to Education

LiteracyUrban/Rural Divide

Access to HealthcareLifelineEmergency Healthcare

Helping Aging Population

US population is aging at an alarming rate. 10% of the population will be over the age of 70 By 2030, it is estimated to be 20%

Cost of eldercare has grown dramatically over the last decade Home nursing costs between $30k and $60k annually

Explore the use of robots for elder care? 70+ age group is likely to have minor disabilities

impacting their quality of life. The three broad categories are Sensory disabilities Cognitive disabilities, and Motor disabilities

Role of Technology in Elder Care Reminding

visit the bathroom, take medicine, drink, or see the doctor

Connecting with caregivers Use tele-presence technology Professional caregivers can interact directly with remote

patients Reducing the frequency of doctor visits.

Monitoring the well-being of patients Emergency conditions can be avoided

e.g. heart failure or high blood sugar levels Help Move Objects for Arthritic Patients

Manipulating objects around the home such as Refrigerator Washing machine, or Microwave.

Help with Social Functions Many elderly live alone Deprived of social contacts

Encouraging Social Activity

Encouraging Social Activity

Robotics and Disaster Rescue Disaster sites are often unreachable and too

dangerous for human exploration

In most cases, rescue workers need to retrieve victims withinabout 48 hours

Pre-Disaster technology alone doesn’t help e.g. In Kobe earthquake (1995, Japan) many structures

collapsed though they were believed to be earthquake resistant

Rescue Robot Ecology: Environment, Platforms, & Role of PeopleRobots of International Rescue System Institute • Information Collection from Above

• Robotic Helicopter• Infoballoon

• Information Collection on the Rubble• Information Collection in the Rubble

• Snake Robot • Wide-Area Information Collection

• Drop-in Cell-phone Tower• Database for Rescue Management

Autonomous Cars as Eco-Technology Unsafe driving conditions

1 million casualties worldwide every year from road accidents

Over 40,000 in the US alone Annual repair bill of $55 Billion for cars in the US

Majority of road accidents caused by human errors and reduced visibility Driver fatigue, drunken driving, speeding 42% of vehicle crashes due to poor visibility conditions

Traffic jams caused by driver panic or miscalculation Excessive braking causes stop-and-go traffic Majority of jams can be avoided if 20% of cars use auto-

pilots Passengers disconcerted by irregular driving

Sudden speeds and stops highly disturbing to passengers

Also leads to high fuel consumption and wearing of vehicle

Underutilization of roads due to huge gaps between vehicles

Accident Avoiding Cruise Control

Collision warning systemsFrontal and sideways collision warnings for

buses/trains Adaptive cruise control systems

Maintain speed, navigate turns, follow vehicles, auto-park, switch lanes

Autonomous driving systemsAutonomous racing vehicles – Sandstorm,

Highlander, StanleyHighway driving for extended time periods –

Navlab 11Lane keeping and headway maintenanceObstacle avoidance by swerving and stopping

Path planning systems based on GPS and navigation maps

Close vehicle following on automated highways – platooning

VIDEO

This video shows the 5th generation of autonomous vehicle Click here to see the Autonomous Vehicle video (49.0 MB)

Access to Information and Knowledge:

Technology to the Rescue Unequal Access to Libraries at the Bottom of the Pyramid Annual estimated global spending - $42 Billion Annual estimated US spending - $12 Billion Annual estimated spending of Developing Countries – Less

than $1 Billion! Most of it goes to Salaries not Collections

Creating universal digital library containing all the books ever published is feasible today Non-destructive scanning of books possible since 2000

Language Divide Problem Unfortunately most of these books are in English

Not readable by over 80% of the population Most People cannot read books in other languages Current translation systems are not yet perfect

The Million Book Digital Library

Collaborative venture among many countries including USA, China and India

So far 400,000 books have been scanned in China and 200,000 in India

Content is made freely available around the globe

Cover Page of Sanskrit book Rig-Veda.

Urdu book by Khader Badesh (1919)

Status: The Million Book Digital Library

Collaborative venture among many countries including USA, China and India

So far over books have been scanned in China and 200,000 in India

Content is made freely available around the globe

Problems of Educatingthe Youth at Bottom of the Pyramid

In India, 70% of the 20 million children are born in low income rural communities

Of these only 50% pass the national exam at 10th grade The urban top students, usually get 90% plus marks The top rural students get 10 to 20% points less depending

on the backwardness of the area As a result, less than 1% of the candidates selected

into the elite national programs like IIT or IAS come from low income rural communities

Unless all the urban students are brilliant and rural students second rate, the country is leaving wasting 70% of the national resource of equally gifted youth

Rather than select students based a national rank, we propose that use the local-best rank to identify the gifted students independent of how their marks compare with marks of the

students in other local communities.

Step I: The Literacy Problem

Illiteracy cost around $225 b per yearOver a billion people cannot read or

writeOver 2 billion people in the world are

functionally illiteratelack of comprehension of the sentence

and the meaning of the wordsChildren and people who live in

villages need extra help to become good readers

Project Listen Reading Tutor

• Project Listen’s Reading Tutor is designed to help children improve their reading skills

At their own pace, in their own way. Installed in several schools Used by hundreds of children every day Handles students all the way from pre-school level to

grade 5 or beyond.Developed by Prof. Jack Mostow, Carnegie Mellon

University• Using the Reading Tutor a student is twice as

effective than the conventional techniques• The Reading Tutor is affordable and the

software is freeUses Sphinx-II speech recognition engineComputer recognizes what you speak and corrects

youUses Windows XP on an ordinary PC with 256MB of

memory

Reading tutor being used in a class room.

Reading Tutor pilot in Ghana.

Step II: Educating Youth from Low Income Rural Communities

Rural youth cannot successfully compete in National Exams Urban rich kids are specially trained in coaching centers Most rural kids can’t afford and/or

Most Solutions not Scalable to Large Number of Students

Quality Teachers not available Existing Universities unable to introduce new

learning models No Access To Computer Literacy Can’t commute and can’t afford Rural Parents do not know options available for their

kids Early Specialization into Math, Physics and

Chemistry leads to narrow uni-dimensional students

One Class Fits All? Quick Learners and Slow learners

No Incentives for Broad-based Education

Limitations of Using Marks as a Metric of Giftedness

SAT, JEE, IAS all use marks as a measure for selecting the most deserving candidates

Marks are primarily a function of “Time on Task”

If all the candidates had the same training at school and at home then Marks can be seen as a Fair and Equitable method of selection

Marks are a function ofTime on TaskQuality of the TeachersEducation level of the ParentsAbility to Pay for Coaching Classes

Local Best Model Select Students based on Performance based

on Local (County) RankingRather than National Ranking as in SAT Tests Rich vs. Poor Divide Urban Vs Rural DivideTime on Task

Teaching to Test Tutorial College Syndrome Learning Vs. Memorizing (Rote Learning)

In the case of unequal training, marks are not a good measure of talent and ability

Residential

Variable Performance within Local Ranking

Mandal (County) Best?Average Marks by School in Chillakur Mandal

of Nellore Dt. LITTLE ANGEL'S (EM) H S, CHILLAKUR 511APSWRS BOYS CHILLAKUR 461Z P P HIGH SCHOOL THIKKAVARAM 376Z P HIGH SCHOOL, N. RETTAPALLI 362Z P P HIGH SCHOOL CHILLAKUR 360Z P P HIGH SCHOOL CHINTAVARAM 360Z P P HIGH SCHOOL VALLIPEDU 356Z P P HIGH SCHOOL VARAGALI 352ZP HIGH SCHOOL KADIVEDU 263

New Rural University in India Catering primarily to Rural Students

Named Rajiv Gandhi University of Knowledge Technologies

Residential – Top 1% of the graduating class admitted each year

6500 students admitted in 2008 August

Students selected using the local best model Admission is by invitation and not by Application

No Entrance Examination. The program consists of a six year integrated

curriculum after 10th grade leading to a dual degree in IT and a domain

specialization. The program uses the learning-by-doing

paradigm using personalized mentors and intelligent tutoring

systems. Each student is provided a Laptop from the

beginning. Motto: "Learning to learn, Learning to think and

Learning to live".

Access to Healthcare

Under 5 Mortality Rate One out of every 5 children dies before reaching the age

of 5 Underlying causes of many of these deaths

Poor pre-pregnancy health, Inadequate care during pregnancy and delivery, etc…

Currently, village health workers make home visits to provide Neonatal care As hospitals are not accessible and costly

Scalability and sustainability of current solutions has been a problem Accessibility to a health worker, identifying and training

health workers and providing timely support and medicine

Each year over 100 million infants worldwide need immunizing against six different diseases.

Education and immunization campaigns have reduced child and maternal mortality rates in

china

300,000 emergencies occur per day (108 M p.a.) 80% are at the bottom of the pyramid 80% deaths occur in hospitals in the first hour 4 M deaths p.a.

Absence of 4 As Access Availability Affectionate Care Affordability

Satyam Foundation Establishes a Not-For-Profit Organization (NPO) called

EMRI to attack this problem in 2005 Initial funding of $50 Million

Emergency Scenario in India until 2004

Emergency Management Research Institute (NPO) and Public Private

Partnership (PPP) EMRI architecture and performance

leads to the following PPP (Public Private

Partnership) framework 95% of operational expenses by

Government (Public) EMRI to contribute balance 10% of

expenses and all costs of Leadership, Innovation, Research & Training, Technology

Management by EMRI to sustain long term performance at International quality and speed P P Passion

PatienceProfessionalism

+

withPeople, Process and Performance

capabilities

Partnershipdelivers targeted

Outcomes

P

Govt. ofA.P.

Govt. ofGujarat

Govt. ofMP

Govt. ofUttarakhand

Govt. of Tamilnadu

Govt. ofRajasthan

Govt. ofGoa

Govt. ofAssam

Govt. ofKarnataka

Poor PregnantPediatrics

• 24X7 Unique Emergency

Response Center staffed

with trained Communication,

Medical and Police

personnel

Emergency Response Center

Computer Telephony Integration Call Centers: Voice Loggers

GIS / Maps

GPS / AVLT

Mobile Communication

Application software for Sense, Reach and Care

ePCR (Electronic Patient Case Record) Form

Technology

Sense Reach Careprev

entio

n

Technology enhanced competitive advantage of EMRI

One Emergency Response Center per State against 6,500 in the USA

Employs latest technology (9-1-1 is a 30+ year-old )

Call handling , dispatching and ambulance control are under one roof

Availability of doctors and police in the response center

Virtual handholding by doctor/paramedic commences since call is received

• Ambulance design based on best of class - Indianized

Ambulance

• 9,000 + EMRI Associates

• 6,800 + Private Hospitals / Nursing homes

• 2,000 Police / Fire Stations

• 280 M population covered in 6 States

• 6,500 emergencies handled ( 2.4 Million annualized)

• 1,140 Ambulances - 6+ trips a day

• < 3 minutes Ambulances assigned

• < 14 minutes (urban) and < 21 minutes (rural) Ambulances reached

• 100% virtual handholding (in ambulance) by EMTs and physicians

• 130+ lives were saved daily(45,000+ till now) and 6,370 victims received timely, high-quality pre-hospital care

Today at EMRI

Andhra Pradesh

Gujarat

Sikkim

Karnataka

Orissa

Haryana

Punjab

Himachal Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh

Chatti

sgar

h

JharkhandWest Bengal

Bihar

Arunachal Pradesh

Meghalaya

Tripura

Manipur

Nagaland

Mizoram

Uttarakhand

Madhya Pradesh

Tamil NaduKerala

Jammu & Kashmir

Maharashtra

RajasthanAssam

Goa

Delhi

Medical Emergency % of Total

Rural%

Female%

AgeYrs

Pregnancy related 22 82 100 22

Injuries 18 57 18 31

Acute Abdomen 8 77 35 32

Suicide related 6 72 43 27

Cardiac related 5 66 38 42

Respiratory related 4 66 36 46

Medical Emergencies

Follow-up after 48 hours

Discharged 49 %

Stable and still in Hospital 45 %

Critical and still in Hospital 1 %

Expired 5 %

Robbery – Thief requested wife to dial 108 after 10 minutes to take the injured husband to hospital

3 Hour Neonate (Baby Girl) Buried

Firing - Between Army Commanders and Naxalites

Cyclist– Fell on road divider rod

Extraordinary Performance fromOrdinary People

Bomb Blasts AhmedabadSnake BiteSuicide Attempt

Candle Light Delivery 35 Ambulances to Bihar

Extraordinary Performance fromOrdinary People

Caring, Valuing and Respecting Life

Humaneness Humility & Commitment to

serve

Leading to Reduction in Poverty, Increase in Quality of Health and Life

What is Stopping Us?: Digital Divide Issues

Connectivity DivideAccess to free Internet for basic services?

Computer Access DivideAccessibility: Less than 5 minute walk?Affordability: Costing less than a cup of coffee per

day? Digital Literacy Divide

Language DivideLiteracy Divide

Content DivideAccess to information and knowledgeAccess to education and learningAccess to health careAccess to jobsAccess to entertainment

Necessary Conditions for Inclusive Technology

Almost Free Access to Internet Basic services free

up to 10 email and web exchanges per day Value added services at affordable rates

access to movies Clear Value Proposition

To an illiterate person in a village, the need for a PC is not obvious

A TV and/or a telephone represent a better value proposition: a PCtvt, 5 in 1 multi-function information appliance?

Accessible No more than a 5 minute walk from home?

Affordable No more than the price of a cup of coffee

Initiatives for Scalable and Sustainable Development

Connectivity: Fiber to the Village AP Broadband Project

Computer Access: Multi-Function Information Appliance PCtvt – PC, TV, PVR, Video Phone and IP phone

Capacity Building: eLearning for the Masses Software for use by illiterate people in rural communities

Content Million Book Digital Library eLearning modules for rural enterprises Village Google