Technology Intelligence & Forecasting

ByDr. Vijay Kr Khurana

What is Technology Intelligence ?

• Technology Intelligence (TI) is an activity that enables companies to identify the technological opportunities and threats that could affect the future growth and survival of their business.

• The Centre for Technology Management defines 'Technology Intelligence' as "the capture and delivery of technological information as part of the process whereby an organisation develops an awareness of technological threats and opportunities.”

• 'Technology Intelligence' aims to capture and disseminate the technological information needed for strategic planning and decision making.

• Companies install an intelligence system (technology, market, business or competitive intelligence) to collect and analyze information on market, product, and technology changes and on other environmental transformations in order to increase their decision-making quality and competitiveness. 

What is Technology Intelligence ?

What is Technology Intelligence ?

Why Technology Intelligence? • As technology life cycles shorten and business

become more globalized; having effective T I capabilities is becoming increasingly important.

• T I provides an understanding of current & potential changes taking place in the environment.

• T I provides important information for strategic decision-makers

• T I facilitates and fosters strategic thinking in organizations.

• If conducted properly, T I leads to enhanced capacity & commitment to understanding, anticipating and responding to external changes

Levels of Technology Intelligence ?

Three levels of T I • Macro level – technological trends & developments

which can influence entire economy / major sectors• Industry or business level - technological trends &

developments which can influence specific industries / businesses

• Program or project level – technological trends & developments which can influence specific technology related program or project

The above three levels differ in terms of • Breadth of technology• Clarity of trends• Degree of precision of trendsDifferent levels of technology intelligence can be applied /

useful in different context

Levels of Technology Intelligence ?

What is Technology Mapping ?• Technology Intelligence could be both internal

as well as external. Internal technology intelligence is called technology audit.

• External technology intelligence is called technology mapping.

• Mapping technology environment refers to the process of gathering external data and analyzing it to derive the intelligence for major strategic decisions.

What is Technology Mapping ?

What is Technology Mapping ?Process of mapping the technology environment

consists of four interlinked steps:• 1. Scanning the environment to detect ongoing

& emerging changes• 2. Monitoring specific environment trends &

patterns• 3. Forecasting the future direction of

technological changes• 4. Assessing the current & future environmental

changes for understanding their strategic & organizational implications

What is Technology Mapping ?

What is Technology Forecasting ?

Elements of Technology Forecasting

1. Time of the forecast – a single point of time, or a time span.

2. Approach in Technology Forecasting3. Statement of functional capability /

performance characteristics of technology – a quantitative measure of its ability to carry out the functions.

4. Statement of Probability– Probability of achieving a given level of

functional capability by a certain time; or– Probability distribution over the levels that

might be achieved by a specific time.

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Time / funds / efforts

Physical limits of technology

Why Forecast Technology?

< TechnologyRegime 2

Technology Progression

TechnologyRegime 1 >

Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?

1990 Since s rate of technological change has . , become faster Individual organization or nation affected by technological change as it invalidates previous resource allocation based on historical

/ . facts data Therefore technology forecast is no . more avoidable

Following factors necessitate forecast of:technology

• To maximize gain from events external to anorganization

• To minimize loss associated with uncontrollable .events external to an organization

Benefits of Technology Forecasting

• Contd …..• To maximize gain from events that are result of action

.taken by an organization• To offset the actions of hostile or competitive

organizations• / To forecast demand for production and or inventory

.control• .To forecast demand for facilities and capital planning• To forecast demand to ensure adequate staffing• To develop administrative plans & policies internal to

.an organization• To develop policies that apply to people who are not

part .of the organization

Benefits of Technology Forecasting

Contd ….. , According to Ralph Lenz technology forecast can play

following specific roles in improving the quality of :technology decisions

• The forecast identifies limits beyond which it is not possible .to go

• , It establishes feasible rates of progress so that the plan can , be made to take full advantage of such rates of progress

• .It describes the alternatives that are open for choice• It indicates the possibilities that might be achieved if

.desired• . It provides a reference standard for the plan Thus the plan

can be compared with the forecast at any point in time to determine whether it can still be fulfilled or whether

, .because of changes in the forecast it has to be changed• It furnishes warning signals which can alert the decision

maker that it will not be possible to continue present.activities

Techniques of Technology Forecasting

Ideally technology forecasting should be rational and . analytical based on available pertinent data In

/ following three situations circumstances expert opinion may be sought for making technology:forecast

• – No historical data exists as it could be new / technology new area of research & development

• Impact of external factors may be more important than the factors which governed previous

- . development of technology i e past data has become irrelevant and cannot be relied for making

technology forecast• Ethical or moral considerations may dominate

economic & technical considerations thus seeking lesser reliance on available data.

Techniques of Technology Forecasting

• , In above three situations as the historical data is , either not available or it has become irrelevant group of experts are used to make technology

; -- “ forecast as there is an old saying Two heads .” are better than one By involving a number of

, experts there is pooling of divergent ideas and various dimensions may be analyzed in better manner thus leading to a better technology. forecast

• A. :Techniques involving a group of experts are– 1. Committees– 2. Delphi

• B. : Other Techniques based on historical data are– 3. Exploratory Forecast– 4. Normative Forecast

1. CommitteesKey advantages of committees are as under:• Sum total of knowledge is greater than

individual knowledge• Number of factors considered would be more

than those considered by an individual• There is pooling of divergent ideas and various

dimensions may be analyzed in a better manner• Helps in avoiding individual biases

• Better knowledge & awareness of one member may compensate for lack of knowledge of

another member.

1. Committees :Few limitations associated with committees are

• Ther is no guarantee that misinformation will be . cancelled out by using a group of experts There

/ is no guranatee that wrong ideas judgements / will be cancelled out by good ideas

. judgements• There is usually social pressure to agree with

, .majority which may be implicit or explicit• . Reaching agreement becomes a goal in itself

Good forecasts may thus be watered down in a .bid to reach a consenus

1. CommitteesContd …• A strong vocal minority may overwhelm majority

, thus making process vulnerabe to hijack by dominant individuals

• Vested interests may be presented very strongly in the beginning thus setting defined direction in the beginning

• Entire group may share a common bias if a common culture is shared by all of them thus .nullifying advantage of the group

• There may be emotional involvement of certain, members leading to conflicts

• Lot of time and efforts may be consumed in reaching to a consensus

2. Delphi Three characterstics that distinguish Delphi from

conventional face to face group interactions( ) :.like committee are as under

1. - Anonymity anonymity is maintained through :questionnaire as under

• Avoids possibility of identifying a specific opinion with a particular person.

• Originator can thus change his mind without .publicity admitting that he has done so

• , Each idea can be considered on its merits regardless of the fact whether group members

.may have high or low opinion about originator

2. DelphiContd …2. Interaction with controlled feed back• Group interaction is through questionnaires and

answers to questionnaires• / Coordinator moderator picks relevant informations &

’ each group member is informed of status of group s collective opinion & arguments for & against each

.point of view• Controlled feedback prevents group taking rigid stand

.& helps to concentrate on its original objectives3. Statistical Group response• Delphi presents the statistical group reponse that

presents the opinions of entire group giving both the“ ” Centre of the group and the degree of

spread about that centre

2. DelphiLimitations / Disadvantages of Delphi• The success of Delphi mainly lies in

.coordinator• The experts must carry relevant experience • F , urther like committee Delphi is based on

.opinions and not on data

3. Exploratory Forecast• An Exploratory Forecast starts with past &

present conditions and projects these to . estimate future conditions

• The exploratory forecast is based on technology push and is opportunity oriented

. . . i e searching for future opportunities• Exploratory forecast implicitly assumes that

required performance can be achieved by .reasonable extension of past performance

• Commonly used techniques of exploratory : . forecast are Trend extrapolation

3. Exploratory ForecastTrend Extrapolation • Assumption: Time series data from the past

contains all the information needed to forecast the future.

• The forecaster extends a pattern found by analyzing past time series data.

• For example: A technological forecasting to forecast future aircraft speed …. by studying historical time series of aircraft speed records, by finding a pattern (trend), and extending it to the future to obtain a forecast.

4. Normative Forecast• A Normative Forecast starts with future needs

and identifies the technological performance . necessary to meet these required needs

• The normative forecast is based on market pull / – . . and is mission need oriented i e finding

. ways for meeting future needs• Normative forecast implicitly forecasts the

capabilities that will be available on the . assumption that needs will be met Thus in

, case of normative forecast meeting needs on defined future time is highly important

Exploratory &Normative Forecast

4. Normative Forecast• Few techniques of Normative Technological

:Forecasting are as under– Relevances Trees– : Decision Matrices Horizontal or

vertical– Morphological Analysis– Network Techniques– Mission Flow Diagrams etc

4. Normative Forecast

• Morphological Analysis - It is a normative technique developed by Fritz Zwicky which provides a framework for exploring all possible solutions to a particular problem. The morphological analysis involves the systematic study of the current and future scenarios of a particular problem. Based on this study, possible gaps are identified and the morphological analysis further provides a framework to explore other alternatives to fill these gaps.

• Relevance Trees - It is an organized ‘normative’ approach starting with a particular objective and used for forecasting as well as planning. The basic structure looks like an organisational chart and presents information in a hierarchical structure. The hierarchy begins with the objectives which are further broken down into activities and further into tasks. As one descends down, the details increase at every level. The entries when taken together at each level describe the preceding level completely. Also, all activities and tasks depicted should be mutually exclusive

4. Normative Forecast• A mission / control flow diagram (CFD) is a

diagram to describe the control flow of a business process, process or program

• Mission Flow Diagrams - have been originally conceived by Harold Linstone as a means of

. analyzing military missions This involves mapping all the alternative routes or sequences by which a

. given task can be accomplished The analyst needs to identify significant steps on each route

/ and also determine the challenges costs . associated with each route The performance

requirements can then be derived for each associated technology and the same can be used

.as normative forecasts • .

4. Normative ForecastNetwork Technique • Firstly, the elements of a technological

forecasting network are formulated for the purpose of converting the qualitative description of a technological system to a stochastic (non-deterministic) network form.

• Then, an analytical procedure for the synthesis of the network is given.

• Finally, examples are included for the purpose of illustration.

Technology Intelligence & Forecasting

ByDr. Vijay Kr Khurana