1. Technology Options & Cost of Increasing Access to
Electricity in Taraba State, Nigeria Uduak Akpan+, Salisu Isihak,
and Sanusi Ohiare [email protected] 8th NAEE/IAEE
International conference, 27th 28th April, 2015, University of
Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
2. TABLE OF CONTENT Background Network Planner Tool Data
requirement Modeling procedure Results Sensitivity Analysis
Discussions Conclusion & recommendations
3. BACKGROUND Access to electricity promotes rural development
education, health, microenterprise development, etc 1.3 billion
persons lacked access to electricity in 2012 over 600 million in
sub-Saharan Africa 76 million lacks electricity access in Nigeria
with electricity access rate being 56%; 84% in urban areas and 34%
in rural areas The electricity access rates in the various states
vary significantly, from 10.9% in Taraba State to 99.3% in Lagos
State
4. Why electricity access rate vary Population density Location
of generating facilities Coverage of the transmission lines
Electricity access rate by state
5. Population density by state
6. Coverage of the electricity grid in Nigeria
7. Rural electrification planning Grid-extension is often used
for rural electrification However, grid-extension may not be
cost-effective in certain situations e.g. in rural areas far from
the grid, with low electricity demand and sparse population
Grid-extension with lead to low capacity utilization Off-grid
(decentralized mini-grid, stand-alone) may be cost- effective
Planners need to evaluate the technology options to identify the
least-cost option To identify the least cost options, Network
Planner Tool could be employed.
8. NETWORK PLANNER TOOL Free, web-based application Developed
by Modi Research Group, Earth Institute, Columbia University, USA.
integrates geospatial with demographic and energy demand
information to identify the least-cost technology option among
three possible electrification options: grid-extension, mini-grid,
and stand-alone Can be applied at a very disaggregated level
depending on data availability for demand centres Has been used in
Ghana and Myanmar
9. DATA REQUIREMENT Geospatial Spatial location (longitude and
Latitude of demand nodes GIS shapefile showing the coverage of the
MV lines Demographic Population of demand nodes Population growth
rate Population threshold Household size Average inter- household
distance Economic Economic growth rate (national) Investment
horizon Lending rate Income elasticity of electricity demand
10. DATA REQUIREMENT contd. Electricity demand Household
Domestic Number of appliances, wattage, duration of use (hours/day,
days/week) Household productive Social Institutions (health,
education, etc) Commercial Public lighting Cost Grid Extension
Internal Cost (LV lines) External Cost (Transformer, MV lines)
Additional generating capacity Mini-grid Internal Cost + generating
facility Standalone Solar PV system Mini diesel generator
11. Modeling procedure Upload geospatial information (spatial
location of demand nodes and GIS Shapefile) NPT maps shapefile of
MV lines with spatial information of demand nodes on Google Earth
NPT maps spatial information of demand nodes on Google Earth
12. Modeling procedure contd. Input demographic and
socio-economic data (population threshold, household size,
population growth rate) NPT projects population of demand nodes to
the end of investment period Input electricity demand information
and specify the demand scaling factors for each category of
electricity demand NPT uses demographic and electricity demand
information to project the electricity demand of each demand node
till the end of the investment period Input cost information NPT
estimates the cost of meeting the demand using the three options
and identifies the least-cost option NPT also obtains an important
decision metric MVmax
13. START Is the cost of the lower-cost decentralized option
< internal cost of grid- extension Compare the costs of the
decentralized options Select the decentralized option with the
lower discounted cost Compare the cost of the lower-cost
decentralized option with the total (internal + external) cost of
grid- extension Choose the lower-cost decentralized option as the
least cost electrification option YesNo STOP Compare the cost of
the lower-cost decentralized option with internal cost of
grid-extension. Is the cost of the lower-cost decentralized option
< total cost of grid- extension Choose the lower-cost
decentralized option as the least cost electrification option Yes
No Select grid-extension as the least-cost technology option
Compute MV max, and the length of grid (MV) to be extended
Selecting the least-cost option
14. RESULTS Base-case result showing the least-cost technology
option for each demand node
15. RESULTS contd Cost of attaining 50% electricity access rate
(i.e 266,571 household)s in Taraba State (assuming no initial
access level) Number of demand nodes 157 Number of target
households (50% of Total number of households) 266571 Stand-alone 0
[0%] Mini-grid 3 [1.9%] Grid-extension 154 [98.1%] Total cost
(million US$) Stand-alone 7,424.36 Mini-grid 1,756.25
Grid-extension 1,648.73 Cost per household (US$) Stand-alone
27,851.34 Mini-grid 6,588.32 Grid-extension 6,184.96 Technology
option for demand nodes (number of demand nodes [%]) Investment
cost (initial + recurrent over investment period)
16. RESULTS contd Cost of schedule for electrifying the demand
nodes in the state using the least cost technological option for
each demand node Number of demand nodes 157 Mini-grid nodes 3
Mini-grid initial cost $3,379,096 Mini-grid recurring cost
$25,480,684 Mini-grid cost $28,859,780 Mini-grid cost levelized
$0.17 / kWh Mini-grid energy storage cost $23,988,419 Grid nodes
154 Grid initial cost $502,661,598 Grid recurring cost
$1,140,723,225 Grid cost $1,643,384,822 Grid cost levelized $0.16 /
kWh Grid length existing 11,128,147 m Grid length proposed
1,409,839 m
17. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 20% increase in household electricity
demand level 20% decrease in household electricity demand level
Change in household electricity demand level (Base case =
2424.24kWh/year)
18. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS contd Change in household electricity
demand level - 1,000.00 2,000.00 3,000.00 4,000.00 5,000.00
6,000.00 7,000.00 8,000.00 9,000.00 S-A M-G G-E Change in household
electricity demand level (total investment cost, million US$) 20%
decrease Base case 20% increase - 5,000.00 10,000.00 15,000.00
20,000.00 25,000.00 30,000.00 35,000.00 S-A M-G G-E Change in
household electricity demand level (cost per household, US$) 20%
decrease Base case 20% increase S-A: Stand-alone; M-G: mini-grid;
G-E: grid-extension
19. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS contd Mini-grid energy storage cost =
US$0.10/kWh Mini-grid energy storage cost = US$0.15/kWh Change in
mini cost of energy storage
20. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS contd Change in mini cost of energy
storage 1,463.20 1,756.25 2,049.31 - 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00
2,000.00 2,500.00 US$0.1/kWh Base case US$0.15/kWh Change in
mini-grid energy storage level (total investment cost, million US$)
5,488.96 6,588.32 7,687.67 - 1,000.00 2,000.00 3,000.00 4,000.00
5,000.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 8,000.00 9,000.00 US$0.1/kWh Base case
US$0.15/kWh Change in mini-grid energy storage level (cost per
household, US$)
21. DISCUSSIONS Even though grid-extension is the least-cost
option for most demand nodes, the cost per household is still high
With the present electricity sector structure, discos may be
unwilling to take the risk Rural electrification agency needs to be
strengthened to deliver its mandate Grid-extension will add
additional stress to the low national generation capacity Mini-grid
uses diesel which has high fuel cost Taraba has high small hydro
power potential which may be used for mini-grids since mini-grid
may be cost-effective in some demand nodes
22. CONCLUSION There is need to re-conduct the study using data
at a more disaggregated level (e.g. village level) REA needs to
compile a comprehensive list of unelectrified villages in Nigeria,
including spatial information of such villages REA should develop
policies that encourage community- level small hydro power schemes
in Taraba The scope of the work may be extended to cover all
unelectrified villages in Nigeria