Technology Roadmapping: A Guide for Government Employees · PDF file1 A Guide for Government...

Technology Roadmapping:

A Guide for Government Employees

Table of Contents Introduction 1 Understanding Technology Roadmapping 3 Guiding Principles of Technology Roadmapping 8 The Role of Government 9 Producing a Technology Roadmap 13

I Preliminary Activities 13 II Development of the Technology Roadmap 19 III Follow-up 25

Conclusion 27 Roadmapping Glossary 28

1 A Guide for Government Employees

Introduction Boosting technological innovation Innovation — based on new technology — plays an enormous role in any company’s success. Innovative companies enjoy greater sales, profitability and global market share. That Canada’s innovation performance has been weaker than other G7 countries is a strong rationale for seeking new ways to boost Canadian innovation. If the pace of innovation is to be stepped up, it is essential that there be greater collaboration between partners sharing common innovation goals. Technology roadmapping brings players together to collaborate in a far-reaching planning process and opens the door to collaborative research and development (R&D). It can play a key role in enhancing innovation. A technology roadmap does not predict future breakthroughs in science or technology; rather, it forecasts and articulates the elements required to address future technological needs. A roadmap describes a given future, based on the shared vision of the people developing the roadmap, and provides a framework for making that future happen technologically. American experience shows technology roadmapping is an effective tool for making strategic R&D decisions. Roadmapping goes back to the late 1980s, when several American corporations, such as Motorola, began using it to determine the best pathway to prepare to address future markets. Today, many American companies use roadmapping to plan their technology advances. And the trend has spread to other countries. Technology roadmapping can help Canadian industry strive for increased innovation, competitiveness and market share. Why a guide to technology roadmapping? This guide aims to help you, a government employee, support industry partners as they produce a technology roadmap. It deals with the concept and benefits of technology roadmapping, the role of government departments and staff, and the steps in producing a roadmap. Through their combined roadmap experience, Industry Canada staff in partnership with other federal departments and agencies, created this guide. It also draws on other Canadian and American roadmapping experience.

Technology Roadmapping 2

Industry Canada’s Technology Roadmapping Initiative Industry Canada launched the Technology Roadmapping Initiative in 1995 as part of its strategic plan to support Canadian innovation. Since then, government, private companies, researchers and others have come together in roadmapping projects. Along with government, more than 400 industry representatives (from 220 companies) and some 50 non-industry people (from universities, research institutes and associations) have worked to produce technology roadmaps. Government has experience in roadmapping; Industry Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Environment Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, and the National Research Council either have done roadmapping or are examining the possibilities of roadmapping within their client sectors. A federal Technology Roadmapping Network, composed of employees from several departments, meets regularly to exchange information and best practices. The Network aims to ensure the federal government makes the strongest possible contribution to technology roadmapping in this country. The roadmaps completed in the first five years of the Technology Roadmapping Initiative have served a variety of industries, including aerospace, aluminum production and products, electricity, forestry, geomatics, lumber and wood products, medical imaging, and metal casting. These early roadmaps have helped government understand the challenges of roadmapping and equipped us to support the process more effectively. Since 2000, work has begun on technology roadmaps for other sectors, including bio-pharmaceuticals, “intelligent buildings,” marine engineering, and photonics. The private sector has primary responsibility for increasing technological innovation. However, federal policies and programs have a role. Government’s support of education and skills development, industrial partnerships, and R&D should align to the current and future needs of industry. Technology roadmapping helps clarify these needs. If government provides a strong, coherent approach to roadmapping, Canadian industry will more enthusiastically embrace government assistance in using this strategic tool.


Understanding Technology Roadmapping What is technology roadmapping?

Technology roadmapping is a planning process that gives decision-makers a means to identify, evaluate and select among strategic alternatives for achieving technological objectives.

Technology roadmapping differs significantly from other planning and analysis tools. First, it is driven by “market pull,” that is, the technological innovations needed if companies are to serve anticipated future markets. Roadmapping is NOT driven by “technology push,” what can be done with the existing stock of technologies. Second, it builds on a vision of where a company or industry wishes to go and what technologies are needed to get there. Third, it provides a route for achieving the vision, going from today to tomorrow, by helping companies or organizations identify, select and develop the right technology alternatives needed to create the right products for future markets.

The roadmap document resulting from the technology roadmapping process is the first step toward technological innovation. After that, the plan has to be implemented.

What does a technology roadmap cover?

A technology roadmap document presents the industry’s consensus on a number of topics: a vision of the industry at a set time in the future; what new types of products (or services) markets will require; the enabling technologies to create those products; the feasibility of creating the needed technologies; the technological alternatives for achieving the needed technologies; and how to address these technology needs through R&D. The roadmap document addresses the role of an industry’s suppliers in creating the desired future, human resources needs, governmental and non-governmental barriers, and other topics.

Why is technology roadmapping important?

Companies face many challenges in today’s global markets. Products are becoming more complex and, at the same time, more customized. Time-to-market for products is shrinking and product life is shortening. R&D is expensive, and reduced budgets are making it impossible for individual companies to independently develop all the technologies they might need to meet future market imperatives. Competition is global and fierce, especially from countries that are both technologically advanced and have lower labour costs than Canada.

In this context, companies must use effective tools to plan their future. Technology roadmapping is a way to identify product or service needs, map them onto technology alternatives, and develop plans to ensure the required technologies will be available when needed.

When should an industry produce a technology roadmap?


Here are some of the indications that an industry needs to produce a roadmap:

· Demands made by the markets the industry serves are changing dramatically.

· The industry has reached a strategic juncture with regard to entering new markets, seeking out new technologies or acquiring new skills.

· Companies within the industry are losing market share, failing to increase market share as new markets open, or facing a competitive threat.

· Companies within the industry have a vision of their place in future markets but no strategy for making that vision tomorrow’s reality.

· Companies, or the industry, are facing uncertainty about what technologies and applications future markets will demand, and when new technologies will be needed.

· There is no consensus among companies, or within the industry, as to the best technology option from among the choices for future development.

· Each company within the industry is conducting separate R&D efforts devoted to technology problems, that all have in common.

· Individual companies within an industry sector lack the resources and skills needed to boost innovation, and would benefit from joint efforts in R&D, sourcing, or supply-chain arrangements.

As a government employee who knows the challenges the industry is facing, you are well positioned to determine whether industry players should consider producing a roadmap.


Advantages of technology roadmapping

Technology roadmapping helps companies, industries and R&D organizations plan what they must do to succeed in future markets. Technology roadmaps:

· predict, based on well-informed assumptions, the market’s future technology and product needs;

· identify the science and technology areas with the highest potential for an industry;

· identify critical enabling technologies that will be needed and the gap (in terms of technology development) between what exists and what is needed;

· support informed, strategic technology investment decisions;

· avoid risky, unproductive technology investments;

· increase collaboration and partnerships among companies through the sharing of knowledge;

· establish the consensus needed to move forward on a program of technology-development R&D;

· establish a framework to coordinate R&D and leverage R&D investments among companies;

· define the steps required to transfer technology to marketable applications.

Technology roadmapping is a first step toward ensuring an industry’s future competitiveness.


Types of technology roadmaps

There are several types of technology roadmaps. They share certain elements but differ in significant ways. Following general guidelines, a company, industry, organization, or government department will create its own roadmap by adapting one of the models to meet particular needs or challenges. The types of roadmaps in use today are:

· industry technology roadmaps, used to assess and extrapolate the direction of market-driven requirements within an area of technology, and then identify R&D strategies to meet those requirements;

· science and technology roadmaps, used to select from among emerging technologies;

· product roadmaps, used by companies to identify the technical processes, and accompanying opportunities and risks, associated with the development of a specific product or service;

· program roadmaps, used by government or private-sector organizations to evaluate how emerging issues might affect the strategic direction of a long-term program.

Which types of technology roadmap will Industry Canada and other government departments assist?

Industry Canada and our federal partners focus on roadmaps identifying critical or emerging technologies with the potential to give an industry a competitive edge over competitors worldwide. The government tends to assist industry in technology roadmapping when the resulting roadmap will address issues in which government has a role, for example, employment and skills development, R&D funding programs, and policy and regulations influencing technology development. Government is most interested in helping an industry sector, rather than an individual company, prepare a technology roadmap.


What type of assistance will Industry Canada and/or other federal departments provide?

If an industry demonstrates a strong desire and the capacity to produce a technology roadmap, the federal government can provide:

· funding to cover a significant portion of appropriate costs, such as a sector study, meeting expenses, secretariat services, translation, and printing of the roadmap document;

· the expertise of government’s industry-sector specialists and others with knowledge to share of R&D, technology trends and other relevant matters;

· secretariat services, including the coordination of meetings (for example, the reservation of meeting rooms or other required facilities) and the production and distribution of meeting reports;

· development and maintenance of a web site, to post relevant reports and host an electronic discussion forum;

· information about research-funding programs for future R&D the roadmap might recommend.

Industry representatives cover the costs associated with their participation in the roadmapping process, such as time, travel, accommodation, and meals.


Guiding Principles of Technology Roadmapping Industry ownership — Although the government may solicit industry to produce a roadmap, industry participants must lead and “own” the process. The government confines its role to support and facilitation.

Market pull — A technology roadmap identifies critical technologies to best meet future market demands (market pull), rather than being restricted to the possibilities provided by the existing stock of technologies (technology push). Usually, a leap in technology evolution is implied.

Action-oriented — The objective of technology roadmapping is to determine future technology needs and establish a plan for developing the required technologies. The roadmap must address specific technology development objectives and lead to concrete results such as collaborative R&D projects. Networking and collaboration, although beneficial, cannot be the sole outcomes of the roadmapping process.

Shared expertise — The sharing of knowledge, expertise and skills can benefit all parties involved. Companies might be hesitant about sharing their expertise with competitors. It is hoped they will come to realize they can further their companies’ strategic objectives by making the entire Canadian sector more successful globally -- by collaborating in roadmapping and then pooling R&D resources.

Confidentiality — Because most technology roadmaps focus on the development of enabling technologies at the pre-competitive stage, revealing proprietary information is not a significant concern. However, if proprietary information is shared, confidentiality must be guaranteed. The participants determine the provisions for confidentiality, typically, in a confidentiality agreement.

Flexibility — While there is an underlying logic and methodology in producing a technology roadmap, the process can be tailored to the circumstances or interests of a particular industry, sector, association, or company.

Iterative, evergreen process — During the production of the document and afterwards, technology roadmapping remains an iterative process. Ideally, a company or industry adopts technology roadmapping as part of its long-term planning cycle. On an ongoing basis, it reviews and fine-tunes its market and technology forecasts, and its R&D commitments and deliverables. A technology roadmap cannot be frozen in time.

Integral solutions — Technology roadmapping focuses not only on new enabling technologies but also on the elements required to generate and support them. A technology roadmap might address technology transfer, marketing, finances, intellectual-property production, standards, and other issues. In addition, a roadmap could identify issues and make recommendations pertaining to human-resource skills and training. It could address potential barriers to the emergence of desired new technologies, and government policy and regulations.


The Role of Government In all the early technology roadmapping exercises Industry Canada has facilitated, the department proposed the idea to industry. Typically, Industry Canada broached the subject with industry after the department had prepared a sector study. This study helped demonstrate that the industry had reached a juncture where preparation of a technology roadmap would be useful. The department promoted the concept to industry, meeting sector councils and other high-level industry representatives to explain the value and process of technology roadmapping. As well, the department offered contacts with a multitude of other organizations that could provide useful thinking about the future of the industry.

Several government departments have embraced this proactive role in roadmapping. As well, with the recent increased awareness of roadmapping, some industries have approached government for assistance in producing a roadmap. Indeed, in some cases industry has offered to cover the entire cost, relying on government only to provide industry-related expertise and other types of support.

What follows is a listing of the various ways government can contribute to technology roadmapping.

Provide data and analysis

One of Industry Canada’s most important contributions, either prior to the commitment to do a roadmap or as the roadmapping process commences, is to provide a sector study for the industry. A sector study provides the baseline information on top of which the technology roadmap will be built.

Typically, a sector study discusses the industry’s primary activities; the resources it uses; changing conditions it faces; current economic and productivity statistics for the industry; Canadian company capabilities; the industry’s technological innovations; environmental challenges; linkages to other industries; international market statistics; current and emerging market trends; and requirements for human resources and training.

This information helps industry determine whether it is at a strategic juncture with regard to new markets, new technologies and new skills. It also assists industry in appreciating and addressing the challenges that will be considered in the roadmapping process.

Garner support and participation from other federal departments and agencies

The lead federal department or agency, be it Industry Canada or another, can contribute strongly to the start-up and support of a technology roadmap by leveraging resources in other parts of government, including funding, expertise, access to research staff, and other assistance. Roadmapping lends itself to intergovernmental partnership, with many departments and agencies combining resources to forge a stronger contribution.


In the very early stages, interdepartmental discussion will determine the government resources available for a roadmapping exercise and, indeed, whether it is credible for government to engage industry to produce a roadmap.

Present to industry the concept and benefits

When it becomes clear that a given industry sector would benefit from a roadmap and industry is ready to invest the time, resources and expertise, government can help. As a government representative, you will present the concept of roadmapping to industry and work toward gaining the commitment of industry leaders well-positioned to lead the process. When presenting the concept and realities of roadmapping to industry, make it clear industry must lead the process and government’s role is to support. This also is the time to provide accurate information about how much financial support government can provide, and to address industry expectations and misconceptions about government readiness to fund R&D after the roadmap is complete.

As you promote the roadmap idea, you might meet academics, research organizations and others who can assist in the roadmapping exercise for the target industry, thus creating the network of experts whose insights can contribute to roadmapping.

Help industry bring in the requisite skills and knowledge

Roadmapping requires inputs from a variety of groups. The process might draw on major companies within the industry, technologists, market strategists, government’s sector specialists, economic analysts, policy makers, educators, R&D specialists, universities, manufacturers, key customers, and members of the industry’s supply chain. Diversified players offer a variety of perspectives. Broad participation also provides a multitude of talent resources, from which appropriate people can be drawn for various roles -- serving on the steering committee, the technology working groups, or other committees. Government participants, with links to diverse industry players, can be well positioned to help industry representatives assign roles and coordinate various players’ participation.


Act as meeting facilitator or roadmap manager

When government employees facilitate roadmaps, they do not necessarily lead meetings. Industry leads the process and makes all the major decisions. The role of Industry Canada, or other government departments, is to contribute funds and assistance, and make sure the requisite meetings take place and yield results.

You can help industry handle many of the early tasks. You can consult with industry players to determine the extent of interest. You might help establish a steering committee, identify and engage an industry champion, establish a vision for the industry, define the scope and boundaries of the roadmap, or work out confidentiality arrangements.

Once the roadmapping process is underway, your role is to help organize the meetings, report on progress, and assist in setting the agenda for the next steps. If called upon, you also could provide information on policy, regulation or other government-related matters.

Provide government funding and support services

Industry Canada and other government departments have covered some expenses for roadmapping, such as a sector study, presentations to industry, workshops on the roadmapping process, meeting rooms, documentation, translation, printing, and web site management. Industry participants pay for their travel, accommodation, and meals. Industry Canada has contributed approximately $125,000, as well as the time and efforts of departmental employees, for an individual roadmap. Some roadmaps have had the help of three full-time sector officers and one full-time support person. The government people provided sector information and analysis, secretariat services, assistance in writing reports, and coordination services.

Liaise with federal departments or agencies that influence policies and programs

Government employees who help industry develop a roadmap can provide information to industry on a variety of relevant topics. These include: policy issues; government initiatives that could have an impact on the roadmap; information about organizations that fund R&D; and opportunities for collaboration with other federal departments and agencies, or universities or other research organizations.

The government participants also can facilitate the flow of communication in the opposite direction, relaying information and insights from the roadmap discussions to policy makers, R&D funding bodies, and organizations that influence human resources training. This liaison helps government more fully support innovation in Canadian industries.

Monitor progress

With good project management and reporting procedures, all parties can be made aware of progress toward milestones, or of actions required to achieve milestones. Part of government’s role


is to ensure that industry and federal partners fulfill all obligations that can have an impact on the success of the process.

If the process falters, the lead department should act to get it back on track and making progress once again.

Disseminate the results

Once published, the roadmap must be disseminated within industry, government and R&D establishments. The lead government department can publish the roadmap document on the Strategis TRM web site, and send it to any parties that might have an interest, including research organizations, private sector companies, provincial governments, and universities and colleges.


Producing a Technology Roadmap Roadmapping generally has three stages: preliminary activities, development of the roadmap and follow-up.

If Industry Canada has approached industry about a roadmap, typically the department undertakes much of the preliminary activity. Once roadmapping begins, however, industry conducts most of the remaining work and the department provides support.

Although the steps are described in a sequence, some could be conducted concurrently or the order could change. For certain roadmaps, some steps might be omitted or new ones added. The characteristics of the industry and technologies under consideration will influence the shape of the process. Designing the best roadmapping process for a particular situation requires flexibility and a thorough understanding of the industry.

I Preliminary Activities

In the preliminary stage, the people launching the roadmap must ensure the essential conditions for start-up are existent, find the leadership and participants, and define the scope and boundaries for the roadmap.

The steps for launching the roadmapping process are described below. To get the process underway, representatives of the lead department will conduct many of these activities.

Some of these activities can occur simultaneously. For example, the sector study can be performed before there is an interest in producing a roadmap, or it might be that interest in roadmapping leads to a sector study. If a steering committee comes together quickly, it might commission the sector study. On the other hand the study might be commissioned before the steering committee is active or while the lead department is soliciting people to serve on the steering committee. Circumstances will shape the sequence of the steps in the process.

Commission a sector study of the targeted industry, if one has not yet been produced

If a number of industry experts within government are talking about an industry seeming to be at a critical juncture, it is probably appropriate to examine the question more closely. Industry Canada or another department can fund a sector study. An expert in the field, possibly a consultant, talks with industry people, government sector specialists and others. He or she examines available information to provide an analysis of markets old and new, technologies and skills in the industry at this time. This study will serve as baseline data for the roadmapping process.

Meet with other government departments and agencies to determine which would like to participate


Most roadmapping processes deal with industries and technologies of concern to more than one federal department. The concerned departments can share the government contribution to a roadmap, as well as the insights derived from the process. Before approaching an industry about roadmapping, Industry Canada should present the idea to all departments that might be interested and propose that all contribute funds or other support.

Contact industry to determine the extent of interest and which companies are most likely to participate

Outside of government, an industry association, if there is one, is the logical first contact. If there is no sectoral industry association, the lead department can contact key companies in the industry. At meetings with the sector association or industry executives, the lead department presents the benefits of technology roadmapping and the process. If a sector study has already been produced, the department can present its analysis of the results, demonstrating that a roadmap is needed and of value.

Before engaging other resources, the lead department must determine whether on industry’s part there is sufficient interest and commitment to proceed. To ensure that industry appreciates the commitment required, Industry Canada or the lead department can present information on the cost, time and effort that goes into a roadmapping process. Industry participants must be able to commit to the full process, knowing that it means engaging some of their best executives for this work. Industry Canada needs to clarify what funding and services it can provide to support the process, and ensure there are no misconceptions about subsequent funding for the implementation stages. It may take several meetings over several months to gain the interest and commitment of a sufficient number of high-level industry people.

If government has been the initiator and catalyst, it is time for the government representatives to step back and assess whether industry’s interest is sufficiently strong to proceed. Will industry devote the time and other resources? Are companies sufficiently committed that they are willing to collaborate within a wider group to attain shared technology goals? Without strong interest and commitment from industry, a roadmap should not be started.

Participation should be restricted to companies willing to commit the time and effort. These companies also must be willing to work within a group on common technology issues and be able to envisage a future R&D partnership for the common good of the industry.

The industry participants should deliberate on the types of issues and discussions that could lead to adversarial situations. The group can then decide in advance to steer away from such areas of discussion.

Help industry find a roadmap champion

Because a roadmap requires so much time and money, it must have committed leadership from the group that stands to benefit from it. Industry must lead the effort and be committed to using the


results. The process requires a champion, preferably a main player in the industry. Industry Canada might help the sector association find a champion, but ultimately the industry participants should select the right person.

Help industry establish a steering committee

The membership of the steering committee can include industry experts, academics, technology researchers, analysts, economists, educators, government policy makers or human resources strategists, the industry’s customers and members of the industry’s supply chain. Some steering committee members should know how to identify needs, technology drivers, and economic and market trends. Some should be experienced in assessing technology alternatives.

Of course, it would be an asset if some members understand roadmapping and will commit to help drive the process.

This steering committee should be established about six months before other participants join the exercise. Most of its members should understand both the industry and the area of technology to be roadmapped. As the steering committee is responsible for managing the process, it must be strong and united in its leadership if other participants are to fulfill their objectives.

It is difficult to prescribe the size of the steering committee, as that will vary with circumstances. The committee should not be so large that it will encumber the process or represent too many divergent interests.


Help the steering committee establish subcommittees and working groups

The steering committee decides the number of subcommittees and their roles. Depending on the number of participants and the complexity of the process, some or all of the following may be required:

Technology Committee — The technology committee is responsible for mapping out the process to be followed by the technology working groups. As well, its members will head those working groups. The committee reports results from the working groups to the steering committee.

Coordinating Committee — This committee coordinates the efforts of all the other committees so that the proper information is exchanged and work progresses.

Framework Committee — This committee develops the framework for the overall technology roadmap. This includes establishing the objectives for each technology working group. The framework committee should include people from industry, government and academia.

Implementation Committee — This committee drives the implementation of the roadmap recommendations, especially shared R&D projects. The implementation committee will help ensure the roadmapping process does not come to a standstill upon completion of the roadmap document. Some members of the steering committee should sit on the implementation committee, so that there is continuity between the vision established in the beginning to guide the process and implementation.

Logistics Committee — This committee is responsible for carrying out logistics, for example, the organization of meetings, scheduling, workshop support, secretariat functions, the gathering of all the reports generated by technology working groups, and the writing of the roadmap document. Since government is providing support, this committee would be composed mostly of people from Industry Canada or another supporting department. If a facilitator is to be hired to conduct meetings, this committee would engage that individual.

The facilitator could be the lead government employee, the roadmap manager, or a consultant. This person needs to be an expert in process, not content. The facilitator must understand the technology roadmapping methodology, but need not be immersed in the industry or in technology planning. The facilitator ensures meetings accomplish their agendas and manages the interactions, bringing out the best contribution from each participant. To successfully fulfill his role, the facilitator needs to remain impartial to the issues under discussion, keeping a distance from the content. The facilitator remains involved until the roadmap is written.


Help the steering committee define a vision for the industry

Before the full contingent of participants joins in, the steering committee develops a vision statement describing the purpose and goals of the technology roadmap. This statement focuses on the desired result -- to define the technologies and products the industry must develop to attain its vision. In the vision statement, the industry assesses its position today and defines where it wants to be at a particular future time. The vision sets long-term goals. It might serve not only the roadmapping process but, as well, guide the joint R&D program implementing the roadmap recommendations.

Brainstorming is a good way to launch discussion of the vision and bring out as many ideas and viewpoints as possible.

Some steering committees may not have the time or resources to speculate about all potential futures. In this case, the roadmap manager or facilitator can expedite the process by limiting the time spent on brainstorming, soliciting ideas via e-mail, or forming a subcommittee to propose a limited number of alternative visions for the steering committee’s consideration.

Help the steering committee define the scope and boundaries of the roadmap

It is important to establish the scope and boundaries for the roadmap at the outset. The steering committee defines the goals of roadmapping shared by all participants. The vision that will guide the process is stated. That vision should include a discussion of the circumstances that have motivated the launch of the roadmapping process, so that participants will understand, and as the process unfolds, can refer back to the context driving the roadmap. Timeframes are set, for example, one year to produce the roadmap and three to six years to develop new technologies.

Help the steering committee project the time and finances required to complete the roadmap

Producing a roadmap is expensive, both in terms of the direct costs and the time of the people involved. Not including participants’ time, the cost of developing a technology roadmap over a two-year period typically ranges between $200,000 and $250,000.

Among the direct costs are: gathering sector information and performing analysis; the building and monthly updating of a web site, workshops; meetings; travel; administration; facilitators; consultants; writers; document production; translation; and document distribution. The government and private sector participants should share the costs.

The speed and effectiveness of the process depends on adequate funding. For example, if budget restrictions force participants to work by teleconference or through a web-based discussion group, the quality and amount of interaction is greatly reduced and there is a resultant decline in interest, motivation and the quality of the work.


The following table shows the estimated costs up to and including the production of the roadmap document and its posting on a web site.

ELEMENTS OF THE ROADMAPPING PROCESS

Approximate

Costs ($ Thousands)

Assess the need for a technology roadmap

10

Interdepartmental meetings to discuss the concept and gain participation of relevant departments

N/A

Establishing a steering committee (composed primarily of industry representatives, with an industry “champion”) and a secretariat

20

Sector study and analysis

50

Workshops (during the development stage of the roadmap)

25

Administration (photocopying, telephone, hospitality, etc.)

15

Consultant to write the roadmap

50

Information (other roadmaps, reports, patents, technical data, etc.)

10

Translation

10

Production of document (PDF, graphics, editing)

10

Web site (development, translation)

15

Total

$215

Prepare a project proposal for the approval and commitment of the steering committee and lead government department(s)

Before roadmapping begins, the steering committee and the funding department representatives would be well advised to prepare and sign a project proposal for the technology roadmap. This document specifies the goals, methodology, constraints, risks, success factors, major inputs, major outputs, milestones, schedules, methodology, projected costs in time and dollars, and the responsibilities and deliverables of participants at each stage. The project proposal makes concrete what the project entails, so that participants understand what is required of them and what it will take to complete the roadmap. By signing the project proposal, participants take on a commitment to complete the process and attain its objectives. The project proposal can also be used to assess progress.


Ensure that industry participants and the government sign non-disclosure or confidentiality agreements

In some roadmapping exercises, non-disclosure agreements will be unnecessary because the technology under discussion is “pre-competitive.” However, should the roadmapping process require that industry participants reveal proprietary information, participants may want the security of non-disclosure agreements.

II Development of the Technology Roadmap

During the development of the roadmap, industry leads the process and government provides support.

The development of the technology roadmap entails working through the thinking about the enabling technology or technologies necessary to realize the vision. Participants consider what attributes a technological system must possess to enable the industry to best address future market opportunities. Participants consider major categories of technology and the factors driving the development of these various categories. They assess the technological alternatives and their development time horizons. Finally, the participants make recommendations as to which alternative(s) merit R&D work. The steps in this process are described below.

Establish statements of the purpose and goals of the technology roadmap

Based on the vision developed by the steering committee, the participants, or the steering committee alone, develop the statements of purpose and goals for the roadmap. The statement of purpose focuses on the desired results, defining the technologies and products the industry must develop to attain its vision. The statement of goals details more specific targets. To take a hypothetical example, a roadmap for the forest products industry might state as a goal the recycling of 50 percent of product material. For the mining industry, a goal might be to reduce emissions by 30 percent.

Define the industry and the needs of its customers at a particular point in the future

To define where the industry should be headed, participants begin by defining the industry today, describing its principal products and services, customers, suppliers, the materials and energy it uses, and so on. Then, based on market projections, the group would define what future customers are likely to demand and how manufacturing processes have to be adapted to meet those demands. (Market projections often can be gleaned from marketing reports.) Participants are encouraged to be visionary.


Identify the product(s) or enabling technology(ies) that will be the focus

This step is one of the most critical. If all participants are to embrace the process and the results, there needs to be agreement on the ultimate target of the exercise -- product requirements and enabling technologies. Expect this phase to generate extensive discussion and major differences of opinion. If participants are uncertain about how to define the products or technologies, scenario-based planning could help. Several scenarios are explored. If several scenarios have the same needs in common, these needs probably are too critical to ignore.

The roadmap may ultimately focus on several technologies and components, depending on the complexity of the product the participants identify as the focus. That said, participants might have to make choices to avoid working on too many fronts simultaneously. If the participants feel it is necessary to explore several components or technologies, they can assign each to a different working group.

Identify the critical attributes of the target future system(s)

After the participants have decided what product or technology needs to be roadmapped, they identify the critical qualities that product or technology must possess. These are the critical attributes of the future system. As an example, a roadmap focusing on fuel cells might consider as critical attributes for a future system: cost-effectiveness, energy efficiency, safety, and reliability.

Specify the major areas of technology to be explored

Once the participants have identified the product and the critical attributes of the product’s system, they identify the major areas of technology to be explored to achieve these attributes. The areas to be addressed will, of course, vary depending on the industry sector and type of technology under consideration. However, participants might explore issues pertaining to materials, electronics, manufacturing systems, process integration, modeling or simulation systems, and pollution-control systems, to mention but a few.

Specify when the technology will be needed if the industry is to meet future customer demands

The time period to be considered will vary between industries. In the hectic high-tech industry, eight to ten years is probably too long a time horizon for consideration of a new product or technology. Yet, in the oil and gas, or electricity industries, where the fundamentals of the industry change slowly, a timeframe of 30 to 50 years could be appropriate.

Most government-facilitated roadmaps deal with the pre-competitive stages of technology development. At this stage, an industry is doing basic R&D into generic technologies viewed as holding major potential for the longer-term future. When an industry is engaged in pre-competitive research, its companies have not yet planned products and R&D projects for the future time when the technologies under consideration might have matured -- that day is still too distant. Because


there is no specific product plan as yet, companies are not worried about divulging competitive product and product-development information. Thus, they are more likely to be willing to collaborate.

The time horizons for which companies may be willing to engage in joint pre-competitive research will vary by industry and between companies. For example, if Company X has products and processes under development to ensure its growth in the next five years, it is unlikely to participate in a roadmap covering an eight-year period. Not only would Company X not need that kind of information, it would be concerned about protecting its intellectual property. On the other hand, if several companies do not have extensive plans for products and services, this group is more likely to benefit from the collaboration, pooling of resources, and information sharing of a roadmapping process.

A central consideration in determining the time span available for developing a technology is how quickly the competition is likely to develop it. Being an R&D leader affords competitive advantage in intellectual property rights. Being first to market with a new product is of paramount importance; it is a primary means of winning market share.

Specify the technology drivers and their targets

The participants need to identify the overriding considerations in choosing between technologies for future application. These are the technology drivers -- they will drive the decision-making as to which technologies to pursue. For example, drivers might include the availability and cost of materials and energy for a manufacturing process, or the environmental impacts of the product or its manufacturing processes.

The participants set a target for each technology driver. These targets are set in reference to the critical attributes the final product or technology must possess. In other words, the targets must be set to deliver the desired end system. Here is an example. For a particular industry, the use of fossil fuels is an issue and is expected to increase in importance. Thus, one driver is the environmental impacts of fossil fuels. After deliberations, the participants set the target for this driver -- to reduce fossil-fuel consumption by half by 2010, while maintaining current performance, through substitution of non-polluting renewable energy sources.


Identify technology alternatives and their development timelines

Having specified the technology drivers and corresponding targets, participants begin identifying the technology alternatives with the potential to meet those targets. A difficult target may require breakthroughs in several technologies, or a technology may impact multiple targets. For each of the identified technology alternatives, the roadmapping process forecasts a time line of the maturing of the technology -- its progress towards meeting the driver targets.

If no particular technology emerges as the clear winner for the future, the participants might consider R&D on several technology alternatives in parallel. When multiple technology alternatives are to be pursued, the roadmap’s timelines must identify decision points, when the implementation group will consider whether the technology is a front-running prospect or should be dropped from further consideration.

Recommend technology alternatives that should be pursued

At this point, participants must select the best technology alternatives to pursue, based on an evaluation of their cost, time lines, performance, and other factors. One path may get the industry to its destination faster, another might be cheaper, and yet another less risky (because there are fewer R&D issues). One option might lead to a steeper increase in performance but at the cost of a longer development time. The participants must weigh the trade-offs and ensure that the technology alternatives selected are indeed on the critical path that leads to the desired end product or enabling technology.

It is imperative to win the race to market. Thus, a critical trade-off is that between longer development times with greater performance gains, and rapid time-to-market. In one case, a 20 percent improvement over the base performance target may be worth the extra time or cost, while in another, even a doubling of performance does not compensate for the delays in getting the product into the market. In the latter instance, introducing the product as early as possible, as is so often the case, is the overriding constraint.

To further complicate matters, a particular technology may help the industry meet the first one or two targets for a driver but cannot satisfy later targets -- or vice versa, the technology fails to satisfy immediate imperatives but addresses objectives down the road. The latter is a “disruptive technology.” A disruptive technology cannot satisfy immediate needs, and so often is ignored in favour of the current technology. However, the disruptive technology’s potential performance and rate of improvement, if it is developed, is much greater than that of the current technology. Without the broader perspective provided by a technology roadmap, the disruptive technology often is under funded or ignored.

The roadmapping participants must determine the optimal trade-offs. Sometimes, there may be analytical or modeling tools to help judge which technology alternatives to pursue or the correct timing for the shift from one technology to another.


The roadmapping process, at either the corporate or the industry level, consolidates the best information and develops a consensus among many experts. It begins a collaborative effort that, when carried forward into implementation, results in more effective and efficient use of limited technology-investment resources.

Define what skills and knowledge the industry’s future work force will require developing and implementing the new technologies

An adjunct to developing new technologies is developing a work force with the right skills to create and use these innovations. Government has a strong role to play, in that it funds education and can help provinces make strategic decisions about academic programs. As the roadmapping participants consider matters of education and training, they should engage the federal and provincial departments responsible for skills and knowledge development.

Write the technology roadmap report

Each time a technology working group meets, the chair writes a report documenting the work accomplished. Each meeting advances the work and the iterative process continues until the group has accomplished its mandate. By the end of the whole roadmapping process, each group has its own roadmap for the technology that has been its focus. The secretariat must now integrate these reports into an overarching roadmap report. This report should include information on the critical factors that, if not addressed, will cause the developments prescribed in the roadmap to falter.

What follows is a suggested template for a roadmapping report. Although every roadmap will differ, according to the circumstances and context of the industry, most reports will contain these sections. There might well be additional segments, for example, discussing such factors as political or economic issues that affect the entire Canadian R&D establishment.


SUGGESTED TEMPLATE

There are additional matters participants might wish to consider addressing in the report: technical recommendations, implementation recommendations, potential R&D partnerships, training and development of the future work force, or other matters.

1. Introduction and Background

• Mission/vision • Project goals, objectives and end states • Scope and boundary conditions of the roadmapping effort • The current industry: its products, customers, suppliers and manufacturing processes • Market trends and projections • Relevant constraint (regulatory, stakeholder, budget, etc.)

2. Technical needs and capabilities

• Targeted products • Functional and performance requirements • Current science and technology capabilities • Gaps and barriers • Development strategy and targets

3. Technology development strategy

• Evaluation and prioritization of technologies • Recommended technologies • Decision points and schedule • Budget summary

4. Conclusion

• Recommendations • Plan to implement recommendations

5. Appendices

• Roadmapping process • Participants


III Follow-up The group of experts who develop and draft the technology roadmap will be relatively small, so to ensure the roadmap is accepted and acted upon, it must be critiqued, validated and accepted by a much larger group. To avoid the process coming to a halt with the production of the roadmap document, participants must develop an implementation plan. This plan advocates appropriate investment decisions, and sets out the means and time lines for implementation. Finally, since both the needs and the technologies are evolving, the implementation plan must include provisions for the periodic review and updating of the roadmap. Critique and validate the technology roadmap

The roadmap document is distributed to a large group of industry representatives, who scrutinize it and validate it or suggest modifications. These reviewers should be asked to address specific questions. If the recommended technology alternatives are developed, will the targets be met? Are the technology alternatives reasonable? Were any important technologies missed? Is the roadmap clear and understandable? Are the recommendations feasible? Can the actions recommended be completed in the required time frames? A successful approach for garnering feedback from a wider industry group is to conduct one or more workshops. Seek participation by the companies, organizations and individuals who will be involved in implementing the plan. Be prepared for the possibility that this group will suggest significant revisions to the roadmap. Seek feedback from all the participants

There are steps the steering committee can take to maximize the value of the roadmap and, as well, enhance the roadmapping process. The core roadmapping team should seek feedback from all participants to confirm the relevance of the roadmap and the appropriateness of the process, and to gather suggestions for improving the process. This survey also should inquire how participants intend to use the roadmap. During this step, the lead department promotes the roadmap within government. This is a tool that policy makers should use to guide R&D grant programs, and education and training initiatives. The lead department can work with an industry association to promote use of the roadmap among companies as a tool to guide strategic technology and business planning. Finally, the lead department can direct participating companies and organizations, or R&D consortiums arising from the roadmapping process, to R&D-funding organizations that might support the needed research. Develop an implementation plan


The roadmap document should provide enough information to make technology selection and investment decisions. Based on the recommended technology alternatives, the implementation committee develops an implementation plan. This plan calls for collaboration of various industry players to do the required R&D, perhaps with coordination by an industry association. Collaboration is preferred, but if a critical mass of companies is not prepared to collaborate on R&D and share the rights to the resulting new technologies, individual companies may undertake their own R&D projects. Review and update

Technology roadmaps and implementation plans should be reviewed and updated routinely. Decisions and investment plans formulated when the roadmap document first appeared may require modification in light of unfolding conditions. As target dates grow nearer, uncertainty about markets and technological directions at those target dates is greatly reduced. Thus, the roadmap’s premises regarding markets and technologies need to be revisited periodically. During these review cycles, roadmapping participants refine or eliminate scenarios, and adapt the roadmap and its implementation to optimally meet changing realities. The review cycle may be based on a company’s normal planning cycle or paced to the rate of advancement of the target technologies.


Conclusion The federal government recognizes that for Canadian industry to be innovative and globally competitive, it is essential industry players collaborate on common technology issues. Industry Canada and its federal partners will fund technology roadmapping projects so long as industry is prepared to lead these efforts and act on the results. Through the first five years of Industry Canada’s Technology Roadmapping Initiative, lessons have been learned. Some address the difficulties of managing a process as complex as technology roadmapping, especially with many players involved. As well, we have come to recognize the difficulty, once the roadmapping document is complete, of moving into the implementation stage – the launching of R&D projects. This guide is Industry Canada’s first attempt to clarify the process of technology roadmapping for federal employees who will be helping industry adopt the roadmapping tool. With further experience, the guide will be refined.


Roadmapping Glossary Alternative technology One among several technologies that exist or can be developed to meet one or more targets of a science and technology roadmap. Boundary conditions The range of inquiry established as the subject matter of the roadmap project – its scope. The boundary conditions include interfaces between elements within the scope of the roadmapping project and considerations external to that scope. Champion or sponsor The person who takes ownership of the technology roadmap. The champion or sponsor provides high-level coordination for all activities requiring approval or direction from senior management. The sponsor may also be responsible for program management and implementation of the completed roadmap. Corporate technology roadmap A technology roadmap developed internally by a company, university, organization or laboratory as part of its technology planning. This may be done within the context of a broader industry roadmap or independent of any external planning. Critical/emerging technology A new technology in early development and promising broad application, but whose uses and benefits may not yet be fully understood. The development of an emerging technology is too premature for the creation of specific products. Instead, emerging technology development creates core capabilities for the sponsors. Critical system attribute An essential and indispensable attribute of a future product.


Decision point(s) Critical milestones where project level technology decisions can and must be taken. At these points, the right information necessary to make the decisions will have become available. Development target Milestones for the development of technologies needed in future. Disruptive technology A technology that is significantly superior and different from current technologies. A disruptive technology not only changes how a problem is solved, but also changes the market. The new capabilities the technology introduces alter customers’ expectations and requirements. Examples from the past include the telephone, automobile and Internet. Another definition is a technology that falls short of satisfying one or more current customer requirements but has such a rapid trajectory of improvement that it will soon overcome this drawback. In most cases, the disruptive technology overtakes the existing technology and replaces it. Emerging Technology A new, potentially promising technology, perhaps demonstrated in the lab but not developed sufficiently to identify all its uses and benefits. Investments in emerging technologies tend to be undertaken to obtain good early positioning in a technology that could quickly gain dominance, rather than for short-term return on investment. An emerging technology may feature in a product technology roadmap or an emerging technology roadmap. Emerging Technology Roadmap A technology roadmap specifying the time line and expected performance for a technology currently in early development. An emerging technology roadmap is not driven by specific product requirements. If developed by a company, the roadmap includes an assessment of the company’s positioning in the race to develop the technology relative to competitors and potential competitors. Gap analysis In the roadmapping process, the gap in technology development between the technologies that exist today or are in the pipeline, and what roadmapping participants conclude are needed. Industry technology roadmap A technology roadmap undertaken by a consortium or an entire industry collaboratively to address needs common to multiple companies.


Product Needs Products or services that customers have stated they need, or that technologists forecast can be produced with existing or new technologies and for which they believe demand will arise. Product needs can extend beyond the needs customers perceive today to those they do not require as yet or may not yet even have considered. Product needs emerge from the interplay of market pull and technology push. Products involve the application of technologies to solve problems for customers. Product Technology Roadmap A technology roadmap driven by a set of product needs (translated into a set of specific targets). The product technology roadmap differs from the emerging technology roadmap in that the latter charts the development of a new technology without reference to future products. Scenario-based planning A planning method to address uncertainty about the future. Planners identify several alternative future states or scenarios, and then consider the prerequisites and consequences of these alternatives. In science and technology roadmapping, scenario-based planning is a mechanism to deal with uncertainty about future product needs or technological developments. Technology drivers Factors that favour the development of one technology alternative over another, for example, the technology’s capabilities, cost, development time, public or worker risk, waste minimization, environmental impact, regulations or political factors. Technology insertion point A predefined point in a project schedule where new technologies are considered for inclusion in the project. Insertion points are scheduled to minimize disruption to project design while maximizing the potential benefit of applying new technologies. Technology Roadmap The output of the technology roadmapping process, this document identifies the attributes a future product or process must possess, product and process performance targets, and the technology alternatives and milestones for meeting those targets. Technology Roadmapping A technology planning process, undertaken at the corporate or industry level, to identify, select, and develop technology alternatives essential to providing a product or service in future.


Verification/validation Activities undertaken prior to deployment to ensure individual components or systems meet specified performance metrics, and that products or results meet customer expectations and performance requirements.

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