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TechnoMetrica Auto Demand IndexMarch 2012
70 Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ 07446Pho:201-986-1288 | Fax:201-986-0119
www.technometrica.com
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 2
About Us
TechnoMetrica, founded in 1992, is a full-service Market Research consultancy that helps businesses identify, develop and capitalize on growth opportunities. Spotting trends and synthesizing insights that are well-defined, accurate, and forward-thinking is our passion. Research is the foundation for all our endeavors.
TechnoMetrica is a thinkery. We harness the power of creative thinking in everything we do: to develop study designs that best answer research objectives; to communicate research findings with impact; to develop effective marketing strategies and new product development. Our creations are the true testimonies that reflect our depth of thinking. Our clients are our ambassadors of our reputation.
In 1996, TechnoMetrica founded TIPP – the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics. Shortly thereafter, TIPP joined forces with Investor’s Business Daily (1996 to present) – the nation’s fastest-growing financial publication – and with the Pulitzer Prize-winning Christian Science Monitor (1998 to present).
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 3
Table Of Contents
I. Methodology 4-5
II. Auto Demand Index 6-15A. Auto Demand Index (Overall)B. By RegionC. By Area TypeD. By AgeE. By Gender/Marital StatusF. By Parental Status and Race/EthnicityG. By Household Income
III. Demand For New Autos 16-22A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: OverallB. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over TimeC. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time FrameD. Vehicle Types MomentumE. Preferred Vehicle Types 3SMA
IV. Brand Preferences 23-29A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today 3 SMAB. Brand Preferences Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)
V. Contact Information 30
I. Methodology
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 5
Methodology TechnoMetrica’s Auto Demand Index is an early (monthly) indicator of consumers’ intent
to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. The index has been set to an initial value of 100 based on demand levels between February 2007 and April 2007.
The Auto Demand Index is based on the responses Americans give to the question: – How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? Would you say
very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely?
We express purchase intent as an index score that varies as a linear function of the percentage of consumers who are either “very” or “somewhat” likely to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months.
Higher index readings correspond to greater demand or intent to purchase/lease new automobiles.
The index and its movement is projectable to the national market for new automobiles, which consists of over 100 million U.S. households with drivers.
Each month, TechnoMetrica uses a monthly Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey to collect the survey data, with a sample size of 900+ respondents.
A. Auto Demand Index (Overall)B. By RegionC. By Area TypeD. By AgeE. By Gender and Marital StatusF. By Parental Status and Race/EthnicityG. By Household Income
II. Auto Demand Index, Purchase Outlook
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 7
Auto Demand Index (Overall)The TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index nosedived by 49 points, or 48%, in March posting its all time low 49 vs. 94 in February and 105 in January.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mar
-10
Apr-
10
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-1
0
Aug-
10
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec
-11
Jan-
12
Feb-
12
Mar
-12
Auto Demand Index 3SMA
High Low
2007 129 79
2008 92 66
2009 95 55
2010 97 56
2011 94 49
2012 105 49
Base = All Respondents
In March, the TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index decreased significantly, going from 94 in February to 49 this month.
3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 8
Auto Demand Index Moving Averages
Base = All Respondents
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Mar
-10
Apr-
10
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-1
0
Aug-
10
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec
-11
Jan-
12
Feb-
12
Mar
-12
3SMA 6SMA 12SMA3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average
6SMA = Six Months Simple Moving Average
12SMA = Twelve Months Simple Moving Average
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 9
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence
3 Month SMA (Fast Average) Vs 12 Month SMA (Slow Average) Base = All Respondents
The momentum turned positive in November 2011 and since then increased steadily reaching an all-time high in February 2012, but fell in March.
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 10
By Region 3 SMABase = All Respondents
Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?
6866
75 79102 111 100
0255075
100125150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
South
6778 75 80
84 91
83
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Northeast
56 44 50
72 7787
68
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Midwest
68 6578
5260 66 68
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
West12 SMA = 64
12 SMA = 75
12 SMA = 6612 SMA = 76
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 11
By Area Type 3 SMABase = All Respondents
Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?
63 6978
85 89105
91
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Suburban
71 72 77 7183 88 86
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Urban
5844 53
60
81 8677
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Rural
12 SMA = 75
12 SMA = 62
12 SMA = 76
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 12
By Age 3 SMABase = All Respondents
Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?
145134
110
6890
120129
0255075
100125150175200
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
18-24
50 56 65 69 70 72 67
0255075
100125150175200
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
45-64
7163
7895
119131
110
0255075
100125150175200
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
25-44
36 32 35 31 37 41 37
0255075
100125150175200
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
65+
12 SMA = 114
12 SMA = 3612 SMA = 60
12 SMA = 88
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 13
By Gender and Marital Status 3 SMABase = All Respondents
Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?
72 75 78 8297
10997
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Male
5852
62 6272 77 70
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Female
57 65 7482
95106
91
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Married
7860 63 56
70 74 72
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Single
12 SMA = 80
12 SMA = 6612 SMA = 75
12 SMA = 62
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 14
By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity 3 SMABase = All Respondents
Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?
87 91 95 88101
116 109
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Parents
54 48 5764
78 83 72
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Non-Parents
7659
7694
134 140
111
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Black/Hispanic
56 58 62 63 71 7569
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
White
12 SMA = 91
12 SMA = 64
12 SMA = 84
12 SMA = 61
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 15
By Household Income 3 SMABase = All Respondents
Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?
7088 95
107 110 119102
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
100K+
7758 61
70 79 73 67
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
50K-100K
43 4253
6176 74 77
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
30K-50K
7356 63
51
82
10493
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Under 30K
12 SMA = 66
12 SMA = 89
12 SMA = 70
12 SMA = 63
A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: OverallB. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over TimeC. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time FrameD. Vehicle Types MomentumE. Preferred Vehicle Types 3 SMA
III. Demand For New Autos
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 17
Vehicle Purchase PlansBase = All Respondents
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Mar
-10
Apr-
10
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-1
0
Aug-
10
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec
-11
Jan-
12
Feb-
12
Mar
-12
Likely 3 month SMA
March 2012
Likely8%
Not Likely92%
In March, the share of Americans who said they were likely to purchase or lease a new vehicle in the next six months was 8%.
Vehicle Purchase Plans Over Time
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 18
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Within 1 Month Between 2 and 3 MonthsBetween 4 and 6 Months Not sure
Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time FrameMarch 2012 Base = Potential Customers
This month, 9% of likely vehicle buyers say they will purchase or lease a new vehicle within one month, while 29% say they will do so within 2 to 3 months, while most (61%) are planning to do so further out (within 4 to 6 months).
Q. Will you make your purchase within the next 3 months, or in 4 to 6 months?
Within 1 Month
9%
Between 2 & 3 Months
29%
Between 4 & 6 Months
61%
Not Sure1%
In March, the percentage of likely vehicle buyers within one month decreased to 9%.
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 19
Negative Change No Change Positive Change
31%
13%
7% 8%6%
8%10%
13%
29%
12%
6% 8%6%
11% 11%
14%
Mid-size Small SUV Minivan Large SUV Sub-compact or Mini
Full-size Pickup Compact
12 Month Average 6 Month Average
Vehicle Type MomentumMarch 2012 Base = Potential Customers
Q. What type of vehicle are you most likely to buy or lease?
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 20
10% 9% 8% 8%11%
14%19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Compact
Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time - 3 SMABase = Potential Customers
8%
14% 12%7%
2%4% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Subcompact/Mini
35%33% 32% 34% 31% 29%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Mid-Sized
6%7% 9%
13% 14% 15%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Full-Sized
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 21
Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time 3 SMABase = Potential Customers
10% 9%12%
9% 9%
4% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Minivan
11% 9% 9% 10% 12%9% 11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Pickup Truck
11%8% 9% 9%
11% 12% 14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Small SUV
8%9% 8% 7%
6% 6% 8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Large SUV
A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would BuyB. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)
IV. Brand Preferences
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 23
19%
12% 11%
8%
4% 5%
2% 3% 2% 2%
18%
14%
10% 10%
5% 4%2% 3% 2% 2%
Ford Chevrolet Toyota Honda GMC Nissan Chrysler Hyundai Dodge Subaru
12 Month Average 6 Month Average
Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy TodayMarch 2012 Base = Potential Customers
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 24
By Vehicle OriginMarch 2012 Base = All Respondents
Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?
42%
31%
6%
43%
31%
5%
American Asian European
Likely to Purchase by Make
6 Month Average 12 Month Average
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
European Asian American
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 25
Luxury vs. Non-LuxuryMarch 2012 Base = All Respondents
Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?
Luxury10%
Non-Luxury
79%
Not Sure11%
Luxury11%
Non-Luxury
78%
Not Sure11%
6 Month Average
12 Month Average
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Luxury Non-Luxury
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 26
Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top 4 Brands)Base = Potential Customers
9%10% 10% 9% 8%
11% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Toyota
18%
13%
18% 17%21%
15%19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Ford
6%8%
9%13% 12%
7% 6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Honda
10%11% 10%
14% 15% 16%14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Chevrolet
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 27
Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 5-8)Base = Potential Customers
1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Chrysler
3% 2% 3%4% 6% 6% 7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
GMC
5% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Dodge
9%
4% 3%2% 2% 4%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Nissan
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 28
Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 9-10)Base = Potential Customers
2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Subaru
2% 2% 2%3%
2% 3% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Hyundai
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 29
Conclusions
The Auto Demand Index tumbles as a casualty to high gasoline prices. TechnoMetrica’s research has shown high gasoline prices is the biggest wildcard car manufacturers face today.
Only 8% of Americans are considering buying a new car within the next six months, down from 16% in February.
Persisting high gasoline prices could drive down demand and add to the financial troubles of the already vulnerable auto industry. Further, a sharp slump has immense potential to affect the economy and employment significantly.
Auto manufacturers and their dealers must proactively prepare for a slowdown. Auto factories take a long time to alter production rates and no manufacturer wants to have too many cars in inventory. The same holds true for car dealers, who must finance the unsold cars in their inventory.
A rational energy policy, which acknowledges the realities of our resources, our preferences as consumers, and the realities of our environment, may be the best way to make America’s gas pains disappear.
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 30
Contact Information
To request a full data set or for any questions, please contact us.
Contact: Raghavan Mayur
Address: 70 Hilltop Road, Suite 1001Ramsey, NJ 07446
Phone: 800-328-TECH (8324)201-986-1288
Fax: 201-986-0119
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.technometrica.com