TEDA in Houston March 24, 2011

Population Change in Texas: Implications of the 2010 Census for Education, The Labor Force and Economic Development

Steve H. Murdock, DirectorHobby Center for the Study of Texas

and Allyn and Gladys Cline Professor of Sociology

Rice University

TEDA in Houston March 24, 2011

Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Major Topics of the Presentation__________________________

• Population Change• Increasing Racial/Ethnic Diversity• Aging of the Population• Implications of Demographic Change for

Education, The Labor Force and Economic Development


Total Population and Percent Population Changein Texas and the United States, 1850-2010

Total Population Percent Change

Year Texas U.S. Texas U.S.1850 212,592 23,191,876 --- ---1860 604,215 31,443,321 184.2 35.61870 818,579 39,818,449 35.5 26.61880 1,591,749 50,155,783 94.5 26.01890 2,235,527 62,947,714 40.4 25.51900 3,048,710 75,994,575 36.4 20.71910 3,896,542 91,972,266 27.8 21.01920 4,663,228 105,710,620 19.7 14.91930 5,824,715 122,775,046 24.9 16.11940 6,414,824 131,669,275 10.1 7.21950 7,711,194 150,697,361 20.2 14.51960 9,579,677 179,323,175 24.2 19.01970 11,196,730 203,302,031 16.9 13.41980 14,229,191 226,545,805 27.1 11.41990 16,986,510 248,709,873 19.4 9.82000 20,851,820 281,421,906 22.8 13.22010 25,145,561 308,745,538 20.6 9.7

Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census April 1 of reported year.


Components of Change, U.S. and Texas, 2000-2009

United States Texas

Component Numeric Change

Percent of Total

ChangeNumeric Change

Percent of Total

Change

Total Change 25,584,644 100.0 3,930,482 100.0

Natural Increase 15,875,579 62.1 2,124,124 54.0

Net Domestic Migration ---- --- 848,702 21.6

Net International Migration 9,709,065 37.9 957,656 24.4

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Change 2000-2010

State2000

Population2010

Population Numeric Percent

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

New York 18,976,457 19,378,102 401,645 2.1

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6

Illinois 12,419,293 12,830,632 411,339 3.3

Pennsylvania 12,281,054 12,702,379 421,325 3.4

Ohio 11,353,140 11,536,504 183,364 1.6

Michigan 9,938,444 9,883,640 -54,804 -0.6

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5

Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Ten Largest States in the United Statesby Population Size in 2010


Change 2000-2010

State2000

Population2010


United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6

Virginia 7,078,515 8,001,024 922,509 13.0

Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 830,419 14.1

Colorado 4,301,261 5,029,196 727,935 16.9

Nevada 1,998,257 2,700,551 702,294 35.1

Ten States in the United States with theLargest Numeric Population Increase 2000-2010



Change 2000-2010

State2000

Population2010


United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7

Nevada 1,998,257 2,700,551 702,294 35.1

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6

Utah 2,233,169 2,763,885 530,716 23.8

Idaho 1,293,953 1,567,582 273,629 21.1

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6

Colorado 4,301,261 5,029,196 727,935 16.9

South Carolina 4,012,012 4,625,364 613,352 15.3

Ten States in the United States with theLargest Percentage Population Increase 2000-2010



Regional Population Change as a Proportion of U.S. Population Change, 2000-2010


Population of the United States by Regions, 1910-2010



Population in Thousands (Thousands)

United States/Regions 1900 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

United States 76,212 151,326

179,323

203,302

226,546

248,710

281,422

308,746

Regions

Northeast 27.6 26.1 24.9 24.1 21.7 20.4 19.0 17.9

Midwest 34.5 29.4 28.8 27.9 25.9 24.0 22.9 21.7

South 32.2 31.2 30.7 30.9 33.3 34.4 35.6 37.1

West 5.7 13.3 15.6 17.1 19.1 21.2 22.5 23.3

Texas Regional Councils of Governments

Councils of Governments in Texas Ranked by Total Population in 2010: Total Population in 2000 and 2010; Numeric and Percent Change, 2000-2010;

and Percent of the State Population (2010) and State Population Change

Total Population Population Change Percent of State

Council of Government 2000 2010 Numeric %Population

2010Change, 2000-10

North Central Texas 5,309,277 6,539,950 1,230,673 23.2 26.0 28.7Houston-Galveston 4,854,454 6,087,133 1,232,679 25.4 24.2 28.7Alamo Area 1,807,868 2,249,011 441,143 24.4 8.9 10.3Capital Area 1,346,833 1,830,003 483,170 35.9 7.3 11.3Lower Rio Grande Valley 924,772 1,203,123 278,351 30.1 4.8 6.5East Texas 745,180 829,749 84,569 11.3 3.3 2.0Rio Grande 704,318 825,913 121,595 17.3 3.3 2.8Coastal Bend 549,012 571,987 22,975 4.2 2.3 0.5Central Texas 374,518 449,641 75,123 20.1 1.8 1.7Panhandle 402,862 427,927 25,065 6.2 1.7 0.6Permian Basin 376,672 417,679 41,007 10.9 1.7 1.0South Plains 377,871 411,659 33,788 8.9 1.6 0.8

South East Texas 385,090 388,745 3,655 0.9 1.5 0.1Deep East Texas 355,862 378,477 22,615 6.4 1.5 0.5Heart of Texas 321,536 349,273 27,737 8.6 1.4 0.6South Texas 264,177 330,590 66,413 25.1 1.3 1.5West Central Texas 324,901 327,390 2,489 0.8 1.3 0.1Brazos Valley 267,085 319,447 52,362 19.6 1.3 1.2Ark-Tex 270,468 281,947 11,479 4.2 1.1 0.3Nortex 224,366 222,860 -1,506 -0.7 0.9 0.0Texoma 178,200 193,229 15,029 8.4 0.8 0.4Golden Crescent 183,905 188,626 4,721 2.6 0.8 0.1Middle Rio Grande 154,381 167,010 12,629 8.2 0.7 0.3Concho Valley 148,212 154,192 5,980 4.0 0.6 0.1

State of Texas 20,851,818 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 100.0 100.0

Texas Metropolitan Statistical Areas

Total Population in 2000 and 2010 in Metropolitan Statistical Areas in

Texas Ranked by Numerical Change Between 2000 and 2010Total Population Change

Metropolitan Statistical Area 2000 2010 Numeric %Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown 4,715,407 5,946,800 1,231,393 26.1

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington 5,161,544 6,371,773 1,210,229 23.4

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos 1,249,763 1,716,289 466,526 37.3

San Antonio-New Braunfels 1,711,703 2,142,508 430,805 25.2

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 569,463 774,769 205,306 36.1

El Paso 679,622 800,647 121,025 17.8

Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood 330,714 405,300 74,586 22.6

Brownsville-Harlingen 335,227 406,220 70,993 21.2

Laredo 193,117 250,304 57,187 29.6

College Station-Bryan 184,885 228,660 43,775 23.7

Lubbock 249,700 284,890 35,190 14.1

Tyler 174,706 209,714 35,008 20.0

Corpus Christi 403,280 428,185 24,905 6.2

Amarillo 226,522 249,881 23,359 10.3

Waco 213,517 234,906 21,389 10.0

Midland 116,009 136,872 20,863 18.0

Longview 194,042 214,369 20,327 10.5

Odessa 121,123 137,130 16,007 13.2

Sherman-Denison 110,595 120,877 10,282 9.3

San Angelo 105,781 111,823 6,042 5.7

Abilene 160,245 162,252 5,007 3.1

Victoria 111,663 115,384 3,721 3.3

Texarkana* 89,306 92,565 3,259 3.6

Beaumont-Port Arthur 385,090 388,745 3,655 0.9

Wichita Falls 151,524 151,306 -218 -0.1

Source: U.S. Census Bureau *Reflects total population for Texas portion of MSA only.

Total Population in 2000 and 2010 and Population Change for the Twenty Largest Counties in Texas (2010)

Change 2000-2010County 2000 2010 Numeric Percent

Harris County 3,400,578 4,092,459 691,881 20.3Dallas County 2,218,899 2,368,139 149,240 6.7Tarrant County 1,446,219 1,809,034 362,815 25.1Bexar County 1,392,931 1,714,773 321,842 23.1Travis County 812,280 1,024,266 211,986 26.1El Paso County 679,622 800,647 121,025 17.8Collin County 491,675 782,341 290,666 59.1Hidalgo County 569,463 774,769 205,306 36.1Denton County 432,976 662,614 229,638 53.0Fort Bend County 354,452 585,375 230,923 65.1Montgomery County 293,768 455,746 161,978 55.1Williamson County 249,967 422,679 172,712 69.1Cameron County 335,227 406,220 70,993 21.2Nueces County 313,645 340,223 26,578 8.5Brazoria County 241,767 313,166 71,399 29.5Bell County 237,974 310,235 72,261 30.4Galveston County 250,158 291,309 41,151 16.5Lubbock County 242,628 278,831 36,203 14.9Jefferson County 252,051 252,273 222 0.1Webb County 193,117 250,304 57,187 29.6________

Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L. 94-171.

Population Counts as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.

Twenty Counties in Texas with the Largest NumericPopulation Increase Between 2000 and 2010


Harris County 3,400,578 4,092,459 691,881 20.3Tarrant County 1,446,219 1,809,034 362,815 25.1Bexar County 1,392,931 1,714,773 321,842 23.1Collin County 491,675 782,341 290,666 59.1Fort Bend County 354,452 585,375 230,923 65.1Denton County 432,976 662,614 229,638 53.0Travis County 812,280 1,024,266 211,986 26.1Hidalgo County 569,463 774,769 205,306 36.1Williamson County 249,967 422,679 172,712 69.1Montgomery County 293,768 455,746 161,978 55.1Dallas County 2,218,899 2,368,139 149,240 6.7El Paso County 679,622 800,647 121,025 17.8Bell County 237,974 310,235 72,261 30.4Brazoria County 241,767 313,166 71,399 29.5Cameron County 335,227 406,220 70,993 21.2Hays County 97,589 157,107 59,518 61.0Webb County 193,117 250,304 57,187 29.6Guadalupe County 89,023 131,533 42,510 47.8Brazos County 152,415 194,851 42,436 27.8Galveston County 250,158 291,309 41,151 16.5________



Twenty Counties in Texas with the LargestPercentage Population Increase Between 2000 and 2010


Rockwall County 43,080 78,337 35,257 81.8Williamson County 249,967 422,679 172,712 69.1Fort Bend County 354,452 585,375 230,923 65.1Hays County 97,589 157,107 59,518 61.0Collin County 491,675 782,341 290,666 59.1Montgomery County 293,768 455,746 161,978 55.1Denton County 432,976 662,614 229,638 53.0Guadalupe County 89,023 131,533 42,510 47.8Kaufman County 71,313 103,350 32,037 44.9Kendall County 23,743 33,410 9,667 40.7Comal County 78,021 108,472 30,451 39.0Hidalgo County 569,463 774,769 205,306 36.1Chambers County 26,031 35,096 9,065 34.8Ellis County 111,360 149,610 38,250 34.3Garza County 4,872 6,461 1,589 32.6Wilson County 32,408 42,918 10,510 32.4Waller County 32,663 43,205 10,542 32.3Parker County 88,495 116,927 28,432 32.1Bell County 237,974 310,235 72,261 30.4Webb County 193,117 250,304 57,187 29.6________



Percent Change 1990-2000

< 0.0% (n=68)

0.0 - 9.9% (n=61)

10.0 - 21.9% (n=66)

22.0 - 86.2% (n=59)

Population Change in Texas Counties, 1990-2000

Source: Texas State Data Center

ChangePercent ofPopulation

Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent 2000 2010

NH White (Anglo) 10,933,313 11,397,345 464,032 4.2 52.4 45.3Hispanic 6,669,666 9,460,921 2,791,255 41.8 32.0 37.6NH Black 2,364,255 2,886,825 522,570 22.1 11.3 11.5NH American Indian 68,859 80,586 11,727 17.0 0.3 0.3NH Asian 554,445 948,426 393,981 71.1 2.7 3.8NH Hawaiian/Pac. Isldr. 10,757 17,920 7,163 66.6 0.1 0.1NH Some Other Race 19,958 33,980 14,022 70.3 0.1 0.1NH Two or More Races 230,567 319,558 88,991 38.6 1.1 1.3Total 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 100.0 100.0________

Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.

*Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categoriesshown here are non-Hispanic (non-Hispanic White[Anglo], non-Hispanic Black, non-HispanicAmerican Indian, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander,non-Hispanic Some Other Race, non-Hispanic Two or More Races).

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the State of Texas, 2000 and 2010

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Adult Population (Age 18+) by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010

Change Percent of Population

Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent 2000 2010NH Whites (Anglo) 8,426,166 9,074,684 648,518 7.70 56.31 49.64Hispanic (All Races) 4,282,901 6,143,144 1,860,243 43.43 28.62 33.61NH Black 1,631,448 2,076,282 444,834 27.27 10.90 11.36NH Asian 415,219 716,968 301,749 72.67 2.77 3.92

NH "Other" Races 70,612 95,973 25,361 33.05 0.47 0.53NH Two or More Races 138,715 172,686 33,971 24.49 0.93 0.94State of Texas 14,965,061 18,279,737 3,314,676 22.15 100.00 100.00

Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171 * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Child Population (Age <18) by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010


Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent 2000 2010NH Whites (Anglo) 2,507,147 2,322,661 -184,486 -7.36 42.59 33.83Hispanic (All Races) 2,386,765 3,317,777 931,012 39.01 40.54 48.32NH Black 732,807 810,543 77,736 10.61 12.45 11.81NH Asian 139,226 231,458 92,232 66.25 2.37 3.37

NH "Other" Races 28,962 36,513 7,551 33.05 0.49 0.53NH Two or More Races 91,852 146,872 55,020 59.90 1.56 2.14State of Texas 5,886,759 6,865,824 979,065 16.63 100.00 100.00


Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Galveston COG Region, 2000 and 2010


Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent 2000 2010NH Whites (Anglo) 2,348,844 2,429,516 80,672 3.43 48.39 39.91Hispanic (All Races) 1,389,915 2,142,892 752,977 54.17 28.63 35.20NH Black 809,631 1,023,683 214,052 26.44 16.68 16.82NH Asian 227,755 386,015 158,260 69.49 4.69 6.34NH "Other" Races 19,313 28,329 9,016 46.68 0.40 0.47NH Two or More Races 58,996 76,698 17,702 30.01 1.22 1.26Houston-Galveston COG 4,854,454 6,087,133 1,232,679 25.39 100.00 100.00


Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Adult Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Galveston COG Region, 2000 and 2010


Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent 2000 2010NH Whites (Anglo) 1,787,751 1,920,778 133,027 7.44 51.78 43.71Hispanic (All Races) 887,588 1,383,264 495,676 55.85 25.71 31.48NH Black 557,817 734,889 177,072 31.74 16.16 16.72NH Asian 169,234 293,416 124,182 73.38 4.90 6.68NH "Other" Races 13,446 19,882 6,436 47.87 0.39 0.45NH Two or More Races 36,670 41,911 5,241 14.29 1.06 0.95Houston-Galveston COG 3,452,506 4,394,140 941,634 27.27 100.00 100.00


Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Child Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Galveston COG Region, 2000 and 2010


Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent 2000 2010NH Whites (Anglo) 561,093 508,738 -52,355 -9.33 40.02 30.05Hispanic (All Races) 502,327 759,628 257,301 51.22 35.83 44.87NH Black 251,814 288,794 36,980 14.69 17.96 17.06NH Asian 58,521 92,599 34,078 58.23 4.17 5.47NH "Other" Races 5,867 8,447 2,580 43.97 0.42 0.50NH Two or More Races 22,326 34,787 12,461 55.81 1.59 2.05Houston-Galveston COG 1,401,948 1,692,993 291,045 20.76 100.00 100.00


Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA, 2000 and 2010


Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent 2000 2010NH Whites (Anglo) 2,274,829 2,360,472 85,643 3.76 48.24 39.69Hispanic (All Races) 1,353,477 2,099,412 745,935 55.11 28.70 35.30NH Black 783,955 998,883 214,928 27.42 16.63 16.80NH Asian 226,308 384,596 158,288 69.94 4.80 6.47NH "Other" Races 18,867 27,895 9,028 47.85 0.40 0.47NH Two or More Races 57,971 75,542 17,571 30.31 1.23 1.27Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA

4,715,407 5,946,800 1,231,393 26.11 100.00 100.00


Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Adult Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA, 2000 and 2010


Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent 2000 2010NH Whites (Anglo) 1,728,113 1,862,144 134,031 7.76 51.63 43.46Hispanic (All Races) 863,565 1,353,998 490,433 56.79 25.80 31.60NH Black 538,356 715,248 176,892 32.86 16.08 16.69NH Asian 168,231 292,317 124,086 73.76 5.03 6.82NH "Other" Races 13,114 19,537 6,423 48.98 0.39 0.46NH Two or More Races 36,035 41,266 5,231 14.52 1.08 0.96Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA

3,347,414 4,284,510 937,096 27.99 100.00 100.00


Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Child Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA, 2000 and 2010


Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent 2000 2010NH Whites (Anglo) 546,716 498,328 -48,388 -8.85 39.96 29.98Hispanic (All Races) 489,912 745,414 255,502 52.15 35.81 44.84NH Black 245,599 283,635 38,036 15.49 17.95 17.06NH Asian 58,077 92,279 34,202 58.89 4.25 5.55NH "Other" Races 5,753 8,358 2,605 45.28 0.42 0.50NH Two or More Races 21,936 34,276 12,340 56.25 1.60 2.06Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA

1,367,993 1,662,290 294,297 21.51 100.00 100.00


Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the City of Houston, 2000 and 2010


Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010

Numeric Percent 2000 2010NH Whites (Anglo) 601,851 537,901 -63,950 -10.63 30.81 25.62Hispanic (All Races) 730,865 919,668 188,803 25.83 37.41 43.81NH Black 487,851 485,956 -1,895 -0.39 24.97 23.15NH Asian 102,706 124,859 22,153 21.57 5.26 5.95NH "Other" Races 6,528 8,367 1,839 28.17 0.00 0.40NH Two or More Races 23,830 22,700 -1,130 -4.74 1.22 1.08City Houston 1,953,631 2,099,451 145,820 7.46 100.00 100.00


Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Adult Population by Race/Ethnicity for the City of Houston, 2000 and 2010



Numeric Percent 2000 2010NH Whites (Anglo) 499,473 458,859 -40,614 -8.13 35.25 29.48Hispanic (All Races) 476,451 613,353 136,902 28.73 33.62 39.41NH Black 340,032 361,356 21,324 6.27 24.00 23.22NH Asian 80,191 102,177 21,986 27.42 5.66 6.56NH "Other" Races 4,689 6,141 1,452 28.17 0.33 0.39NH Two or More Races 16,137 14,541 -1,596 -9.89 1.14 0.93Houston 1,416,973 1,556,427 139,454 9.84 100.00 100.00 Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171 * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Child Population by Race/Ethnicity for the City of Houston, 2000 and 2010



Numeric Percent 2000 2010NH Whites (Anglo) 102,378 79,042 -23,336 -22.79 19.08 14.56Hispanic (All Races) 254,414 306,315 51,901 20.40 47.41 56.41NH Black 147,819 124,600 -23,219 -15.71 27.54 22.95NH Asian 22,515 22,682 167 0.74 4.20 4.18NH "Other" Races 1,839 2,226 387 28.17 0.34 0.41NH Two or More Races 7,693 8,159 466 6.06 1.43 1.50Houston 536,658 543,024 6,366 1.19 100.00 100.00


Median Age in the United States and Texas, 1900-2007

22.924.1

25.326.5

29.030.1 29.5

28.130.0

32.9

35.336.6

33.132.330.8

28.026.427.0

27.926.8

23.722.0

20.218.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

United States Texas


Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2000

39.541.6

45.0 45.043.1 44.4

47.8

53.0

57.260.2

63.566.4 67.1

72.6

44.041.3

38.0 38.440.5

38.635.3

30.526.7

24.222.4

20.6 20.316.7

< 5

year

s

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic


Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

17.719.3 19.9 20.3 19.8 19.3 19.4 20.5 20.6 21.9

25.3 26.5 27.2

39.8

69.967.8 66.5 65.5 66.0 66.8 66.4

64.362.6

60.6

56.7 55.252.3

37.1

< 5

year

s

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic


Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000


Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2050


POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS


Total and Percent of the Texas Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and 2009

1999 2009

Populationin Poverty %

Median Household

Income* Population in Poverty %

Median Household

Income

Anglo 826,459 7.8 $60,839

1,010,170 9.0 $59,836

Hispanic

1,658,434 25.4 $38,536

2,364,407 26.4 $35,628

Black 525,082 23.4 $37,803

630,479 23.1 $35,438

Asian

65,048 11.9 $64,576

105,186 12.1 $63,692

Other 42,586 13.9 NA 40,000 11.9 NA

Total

3,117,609 15.4 $51,506

4,150,242 17.2 $50,043

*In 2009 DollarsSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009

Educational Attainment in 2000 in Texas for Persons 25+ Years

of Age By Race/Ethnicity _____________________________________

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

< High School

High School

Some College

College or More

Hispanic

Black

Anglo

Asian

Percent


Educational Attainment by Ethnicity in Texas, 2008State of Texas

Number Percent

Educational Attainment Anglo HispanicTotal

Population Anglo HispanicTotal

Population

Less than high school diploma 677,707 2,044,771 3,082,598 8.5 42.8 20.4

H.S. graduate, GED, or alternative 2,016,649 1,205,247 3,848,003 25.3 25.2 25.4

Some college or associate's degree 2,609,018 1,011,674 4,362,145 32.8 21.2 28.8

Bachelor's degree or higher 2,656,310 520,106 3,832,100 33.4 10.9 25.3

Population Age 25 and Over 7,959,684 4,781,798 15,124,846 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: American Community Survey, 2008


Average (Mean) SAT Scores for College Bound Seniors in the United States in 2001 by Selected

Characteristics SAT Score

Mean Mean

Characteristic Verbal Math

All Students 506 514(N = 1,276,320)

Race/Ethnicity:American Indian 481 479African American or Black 433 426Hispanic: Mexican American 451 458 Puerto Rican 457 451 Other Hispanic 460 465White 529 531Asian American or Pacific Islander 501 566

Household Income: < $10,000 421 443 $10,000 - 20,000 442 456 $20,000 - 30,000 468 474 $30,000 - 40,000 487 489 $40,000 - 50,000 501 503 $50,000 - 60,000 509 512 $60,000 - 70,000 516 519 $70,000 - 80,000 522 527 $80,000 - 100,000 534 540

> $100,000 557 569

SAT Score

Mean Mean

Characteristic Verbal Math

All Students 506 514(N = 1,276,320)

Race/Ethnicity:American Indian 481 479

Household Income: < $10,000 421 443

> $100,000 557 569


PROJECTIONS


Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

White alone Black alone Asian aloneAll other

races2000 195,771 34,414 10,436 5,909 35,629 282,1582010 200,853 37,985 14,083 7,586 49,726 310,2332020 205,255 41,847 18,308 9,612 66,365 341,3872030 207,217 45,461 22,991 11,904 85,931 373,5042040 206,065 48,780 28,064 14,523 108,223 405,6552050 203,347 51,949 33,418 17,503 132,792 439,010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections

Year

(Resident population as of July 1. Numbers in thousands)Non-Hispanic

Hispanic (any race)

Total


Numeric Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions)

7.617.5

23.0

11.6

97.2

156.9

Non-HispanicWhite alone

Non-HispanicBlack alone

Non-HispanicAsian alone

Non-Hispanic allother races

Hispanic (anyrace)

Total



Projected Change in the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

Non-Hispanic White alone5%

Non-Hispanic Black alone11%

Non-Hispanic Asian alone15%

Non-Hispanic Other7%

Hispanic62%


Projected Age Distribution of the U.S. Population: 2000 to 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Under 5 years 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.45 to 19 years 21.7 20.3 19.9 19.7 19.4 19.320 to 44 years 36.9 33.8 32.7 32.0 31.5 31.745 to 64 years 22.1 26.1 24.7 22.6 22.7 22.465 to 84 years 10.9 11.1 14.1 17.0 16.5 15.885 years and over 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.3 3.5 4.3

Age Group(Percent of total resident population as of July 1)



Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2000

Non-Hispanic White alone

Non-Hispanic Black alone

Non-Hispanic Asian alone

Non-Hispanic all other races

Hispanic (any race)

Total

Total 69.4 12.2 3.7 2.1 12.6 100.0Under 5 years 58.7 14.4 3.6 3.8 19.5 100.05 to 17 years 62.1 15.0 3.4 3.1 16.4 100.018 to 24 years 62.0 13.9 4.2 2.5 17.4 100.025 to 44 years 67.4 12.5 4.4 1.9 13.8 100.045 to 64 years 76.7 10.4 3.5 1.5 7.9 100.065 years and over 83.7 8.0 2.3 0.9 5.0 100.0

65 to 74 years 81.6 8.7 2.7 1.1 5.9 100.075 to 84 years 85.8 7.2 2.0 0.8 4.1 100.085 years and over 86.9 7.3 1.5 0.7 3.6 100.0


Age(Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1)


Projected Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2050

Non-Hispanic White alone

Non-Hispanic Black alone

Non-Hispanic Asian alone

Non-Hispanic all other races

Hispanic (any race)

Total

Total 46.3 11.8 7.6 4.0 30.2 100.0Under 5 years 37.1 11.1 5.9 6.5 39.4 100.05 to 17 years 38.3 11.3 6.0 5.7 38.6 100.018 to 24 years 39.6 11.6 6.4 4.9 37.5 100.025 to 44 years 43.6 12.1 7.8 4.1 32.4 100.045 to 64 years 49.7 12.8 8.9 3.1 25.5 100.065 years and over 58.5 11.2 8.4 2.1 19.8 100.0

65 to 74 years 54.5 12.1 9.3 2.4 21.7 100.075 to 84 years 58.2 10.9 8.8 2.0 20.2 100.085 years and over 67.4 9.9 5.9 1.8 15.1 100.0


Age(Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1)


Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

2000 11,074,716 2,421,653 6,669,666 685,785 20,851,820

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration

2010 11,331,872 2,627,276 8,060,601 783,198 22,802,9472020 11,381,128 2,771,387 9,336,516 841,654 24,330,6852030 11,171,420 2,823,280 10,576,253 878,107 25,449,0602040 10,733,052 2,796,629 11,662,260 893,129 26,085,070

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000

2010 11,533,974 2,754,744 9,080,436 961,458 24,330,6122020 11,796,493 3,052,401 11,882,998 1,273,896 28,005,7882030 11,789,298 3,268,616 15,140,100 1,632,575 31,830,5892040 11,525,112 3,403,169 18,804,298 2,028,622 35,761,201

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

2010 11,739,988 2,888,448 10,252,220 1,177,909 26,058,5652020 12,227,547 3,361,700 15,226,387 1,921,059 32,736,6932030 12,442,107 3,783,673 21,871,386 3,020,458 41,117,6242040 12,376,308 4,140,673 30,604,622 4,585,897 51,707,500


2010 11,369,946 2,778,528 9,827,743 1,129,429 25,105,6462020 11,461,192 3,106,273 13,922,261 1,762,813 30,252,5392030 11,299,159 3,355,344 19,032,000 2,646,377 36,332,8802040 10,899,933 3,523,778 25,325,641 3,832,576 43,581,928

Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by

Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other

2000 53.1 11.6 32.0 3.3

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration

2010 49.8 11.5 35.3 3.42020 46.7 11.4 38.4 3.52030 43.8 11.1 41.6 3.52040 41.2 10.7 44.7 3.4

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000

2010 47.4 11.3 37.3 4.02020 42.2 10.9 42.4 4.52030 37.0 10.3 47.6 5.12040 32.2 9.5 52.6 5.7


2010 45.1 11.1 39.3 4.52020 37.3 10.3 46.5 5.92030 30.3 9.2 53.2 7.32040 23.9 8.0 59.2 8.9


2010 45.3 11.1 39.1 4.52020 37.9 10.3 46.0 5.82030 31.1 9.2 52.4 7.32040 25.0 8.1 58.1 8.8

Percent Anglo Population

Less Than 50% Anglo Population

50% or Greater Anglo PopulationSource: 2006 Population Projections, Texas State Data Center,Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio

2000

2040 2040(2000-2004 Scenario)(0.5 Scenario)

2040(1.0 Scenario)

Texas Counties with 50 Percent or More of Their Total Population That is Angloin 2000 and Projected for 2040 Under Alternative Projection Scenarios


Percent of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 andProjected Percent of Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from

2020 to 2040 for Texas Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex andRace/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration

Age Non-Hispanic Group White Black Hispanic Other Total

All Scenarios <18 23.0 31.7 35.8 26.1 28.2 18-24 8.8 11.2 13.2 11.2 10.6 25-44 30.1 32.1 31.8 37.7 31.1 45-64 24.4 17.7 14.0 20.1 20.2 65+ 13.7 7.3 5.2 4.9 9.9 Assuming Rates of Zero Migration 2020 <18 20.1 24.8 32.0 21.2 25.2 18-24 8.2 10.2 11.1 9.1 9.6 25-44 24.7 29.3 26.9 24.0 26.1 45-64 27.4 25.0 21.5 29.9 24.9 65+ 19.6 10.7 8.5 15.8 14.2 2040 <18 17.4 19.9 27.5 16.8 22.2 18-24 7.6 8.8 10.0 6.5 8.7 25-44 24.1 27.6 27.1 23.7 25.9 45-64 24.9 26.5 20.6 22.1 23.0 65+ 26.0 17.2 14.8 30.9 20.2

Percent 65 Years Old and Older

< 11.9 (n=66)

12.0 - 14.9 (n=70)

15.0 - 19.9 (n=80)

20.0 or more (n=38)

Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1.

Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2000


Percent 65 Years Old and Older

< 11.9 (n=2)

12.0 - 14.9 (n=19)

15.0 - 19.9 (n=79)

20.0 or more (n=154)

Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas Population Estimatesand Projections Program, 2006 Projections.

Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2040*

* Assuming rates of migration equal to 2000-2004


TEXAS EDUCATION


Enrollment and Change in Enrollment of Economically Disadvantaged and All Students by Ethnicity in Texas

Public Schools, 1998-99 and 2008-09 School Years

Enrollment 10-Year Change

Race/Ethnic Category 1998-99 2008-09 Numeric Percent

Economically DisadvantagedWhite 368,387 402,057 33,670 9.1African American 364,434 460,703 96,269 26.4Other 36,589 57,852 21,263 58.1Hispanic 1,146,071 1,765,647 619,576 54.1Total 1,915,481 2,686,259 770,778 40.2

TotalWhite 1,746,896 1,616,115 -130,781 -7.5African American 568,757 671,871 103,114 18.1Other 112,068 186,487 74,419 66.4Hispanic 1,526,713 2,275,098 748,385 49.0Total 3,954,434 4,749,571 795,137 20.1

Source: Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools, 2008-09 http://ritter.tea.state.tx.us/research/pdfs/enrollment_2008-09.pdf


District/County/School Year White (%)African

American (%) Hispanic (%)

Asian/Pacific Islander (%)

Native American (%)

Total Enrollment

Houston ISD (Harris)2000-2001 10.0 32.1 54.9 2.9 .1 208,4622007-2008 8.0 28.4 60.3 3.2 .1 198,769

Dallas ISD (Dallas)2000-2001 7.8 35.9 54.5 1.4 .4 161,5482007-2008 4.8 28.7 65.3 1.0 .2 157,605

Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (Harris)2000-2001 58.5 10.0 23.4 7.9 .2 63,4972007-2008 38.8 15.2 37.1 8.6 .3 96,546

Northside ISD (Bexar)2000-2001 36.7 6.6 54.3 2.2 .2 63,7392007-2008 25.4 7.8 63.2 3.3 .3 85,544

Austin ISD (Travis)2000-2001 33.7 15.7 47.8 2.5 .3 77,8162007-2008 26.4 12.1 58.0 3.3 .2 82,181

Fort Worth ISD ( Tarrant)2000-2001 21.4 30.9 45.4 2.1 .2 79,6612007-2008 14.3 25.6 58.2 1.6 .3 78,732

Fort Bend ISD (Fort Bend)2000-2001 37.8 28.0 18.1 16.0 .1 53,9992007-2008 24.4 31.8 23.0 20.6 .2 67,780

Arlington ISD (Tarrant)2000-2001 47.3 21.3 24.0 6.8 .6 58,8662007-2008 31.4 23.9 37.2 7.1 .4 62,560

North East ISD (Bexar)2000-2001 49.1 9.4 38.8 2.5 .2 50,8752007-2008 39.2 9.4 47.4 3.7 .3 61,910

El Paso ISD (El Paso)2000-2001 15.2 4.8 78.5 1.2 .3 62,3252007-2008 12.2 4.8 81.3 1.4 .3 61,839

Total Public School Students by Race/Ethnicity in the 10 Largest* School Districts in Texas, 2000-2001 and 2007-2008

*Largest enrollment based on 2007-2008 school yearSource: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center from Texas Education Agency, Academic Excellence Indicator System (AEIS) District Profiles

Texas Higher Education Enrollment in Public Universities, Public 2-year Colleges andHealth-related Institutions by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2008

Enrollment by Race/EthnicityPublic Univ

Public 2-year Colleges

Health-related Institutions

2000 Enrollment

White (%) 58.4 52.8 61.3

African American (%) 9.8 11.0 4.9

Hispanic (%) 19.6 28.9 12.6

Asian (%) 5.7 3.9 14.6

American Indian (%) .5 .5 .5

International (%) 5.3 2.4 4.8

Unknown (%) .7 .5 1.3

Total 2000 Enrollment 414,626 447,998 13,806

2008 Enrollment

White (%) 50.4 45.2 51.3

African American (%) 11.6 11.8 6.6

Hispanic (%) 24.3 34.1 13.8

Asian (%) 6.6 4.2 14.5

American Indian (%) .5 .5 .6

International (%) 5.7 2.5 9.7

Unknown (%) .9 1.7 3.5

Total 2008 Enrollment 509,136 617,507 20,421

Source: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center using data from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (THECB)

Public Elementary and Secondary Public CommunityCollege, and Public University Enrollment in Texas by

Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 AssumingRates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)


Total Public Education (All Levels)

2000 2,186,097 661,995 1,785,676 160,507 4,794,275 2010 2,125,643 693,172 2,367,308 231,798 5,417,921 2020 2,106,211 731,976 3,308,472 326,936 6,473,595 2030 1,992,718 746,148 4,324,751 432,828 7,496,445 2040 1,852,133 739,828 5,596,378 590,265 8,778,604

Public Elementary and Secondary 2000 1,727,733 576,977 1,582,538 114,979 4,002,227 2010 1,643,722 588,781 2,065,327 164,425 4,462,255 2020 1,643,592 619,318 2,892,656 227,683 5,383,249 2030 1,527,293 623,104 3,729,428 287,975 6,167,800 2040 1,411,454 612,608 4,803,635 397,902 7,225,599

Public Community Colleges 2000 230,497 46,742 124,057 19,782 421,078 2010 239,191 56,798 184,582 29,824 510,395 2020 232,120 62,178 254,482 44,330 593,110 2030 232,363 68,156 364,216 65,020 729,755 2040 220,266 70,850 485,107 88,280 864,503

Public Universities 2000 227,867 38,276 79,081 25,746 370,970 2010 242,730 47,593 117,399 37,549 445,271 2020 230,499 50,480 161,334 54,923 497,236 2030 233,062 54,888 231,107 79,833 598,890 2040 220,413 56,370 307,636 104,083 688,502

Total Public Colleges and Universities 2000 458,364 85,018 203,138 45,528 792,048 2010 481,921 104,391 301,981 67,373 955,666 2020 462,619 112,658 415,816 99,253 1,090,346 2030 465,425 123,044 595,323 144,853 1,328,645 2040 440,679 127,220 792,743 192,363 1,553,005

Percent of Public Elementary and Secondary, PublicCommunity College and Public University Enrollment in Texasby Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming

Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other

Public Education (All Levels)

2000 45.7 13.8 37.2 3.3 2010 39.2 12.8 43.7 4.3 2020 32.5 11.3 51.1 5.1 2030 26.5 10.0 57.7 5.8 2040 21.1 8.4 63.8 6.7

Public Elementary and Secondary 2000 43.2 14.4 39.5 2.9 2010 36.8 13.2 46.3 3.7 2020 30.6 11.5 53.7 4.2 2030 24.7 10.1 60.5 4.7 2040 19.5 8.5 66.5 5.5

Public Community Colleges 2000 54.7 11.1 29.5 4.7 2010 46.9 11.1 36.2 5.8 2020 39.1 10.5 42.9 7.5 2030 31.9 9.3 49.9 8.9 2040 25.5 8.2 56.1 10.2

Public Universities 2000 61.5 10.3 21.3 6.9 2010 54.5 10.7 26.4 8.4 2020 46.4 10.2 32.4 11.0 2030 38.9 9.2 38.6 13.3 2040 32.0 8.2 44.7 15.1

Total Public Colleges and Universities 2000 58.0 10.7 25.6 5.7 2010 50.5 10.9 31.6 7.0 2020 42.5 10.3 38.1 9.1 2030 35.0 9.3 44.8 10.9 2040 28.4 8.2 51.0 12.4

Future Demands for Specific Programs

Source: The New Texas Challenge: Population Change and the Future of Texas

186.8%

119.9%

48.5%

183%

188.1%

64.7%

101.9%

69.9%

Bilingual/ESL

Economically Disadvantaged

Gifted and Talented

Immigrants

Limited English Proficiency (LEP)

Special Education

Title 1

Career and Technology Education

0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

2000-2040 Percent Change

76.2% Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Growth

TEXAS LABOR FORCE


Projections of Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/EthnicityAssuming Alternative Projection Scenarios, 2000 to 2040


2000 5,741,765 1,053,552 2,700,075 335,167 9,830,559 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration 2010 5,810,029 1,199,667 3,299,753 368,732 10,678,181 2020 5,563,393 1,265,378 3,850,987 372,710 11,052,468 2030 5,312,914 1,279,307 4,332,859 364,545 11,289,625 2040 5,110,308 1,274,155 4,722,681 352,305 11,459,449 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 2010 5,922,120 1,258,663 3,805,362 464,481 11,450,626 2020 5,778,384 1,395,998 5,071,050 586,070 12,831,502 2030 5,619,763 1,485,116 6,539,041 707,879 14,351,799 2040 5,497,055 1,557,689 8,111,449 833,779 15,999,972 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 2010 6,036,408 1,320,511 4,394,254 582,258 12,333,431 2020 6,001,817 1,539,959 6,720,289 915,688 15,177,753 2030 5,944,488 1,723,492 9,917,813 1,364,129 18,949,922 2040 5,913,114 1,903,402 13,980,316 1,958,552 23,755,384 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007 2010 5,886,054 1,346,947 4,278,133 583,323 12,094,457 2020 5,710,962 1,593,503 6,293,283 901,517 14,499,265 2030 5,528,586 1,803,590 8,824,223 1,304,376 17,460,775 2040 5,378,380 2,015,813 11,638,896 1,788,788 20,821,877


Percent Change in Projected Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios,

2000-2040


Assuming Zero Net Migration 2000-2010 1.2 13.9 22.2 10.0 8.6 2010-2020 4.2 5.5 16.7 1.1 3.5 2020-2030 4.5 1.1 12.5 2.2 2.1 2030-2040 3.8 0.4 9.0 3.4 1.5 2000-2040 11.0 20.9 74.9 5.1 16.6

Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 2000-2010 3.1 19.5 40.9 38.6 16.5 2010-2020 2.4 10.9 33.3 26.2 12.1 2020-2030 2.7 6.4 28.9 20.8 11.8 2030-2040 2.2 4.9 24.0 17.8 11.5 2000-2040 4.3 47.9 200.4 148.8 62.8 Assuming Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 2000-2010 5.1 25.3 62.7 73.7 25.5 2010-2020 0.6 16.6 52.9 57.3 23.1 2020-2030 1.0 11.9 47.6 49.0 24.9 2030-2040 0.5 10.4 41.0 43.6 25.4 2000-2040 3.0 80.7 417.8 484.4 141.6 Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007 2000-2010 2.5 27.8 58.4 74.0 23.0 2010-2020 3.0 18.3 47.1 54.5 19.9 2020-2030 3.2 13.2 40.2 44.7 20.4 2030-2040 2.7 11.8 31.9 37.1 19.2 2000-2040 6.3 91.3 331.1 433.7 111.8


Projections of the Percent of Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios,

2000-2040

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other

2000 58.4 10.7 27.5 3.4

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration 2010 54.4 11.2 30.9 3.5 2020 50.4 11.4 34.8 3.4 2030 47.1 11.3 38.4 3.2 2040 44.6 11.1 41.2 3.1

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 2010 51.7 11.0 33.2 4.1 2020 45.0 10.9 39.5 4.6 2030 39.2 10.3 45.6 4.9 2040 34.4 9.7 50.7 5.2

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 2010 49.0 10.7 35.6 4.7 2020 39.6 10.1 44.3 6.0 2030 31.4 9.1 52.3 7.2 2040 24.9 8.0 58.9 8.2

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007 2010 48.7 11.1 35.4 4.8 2020 39.4 11.0 43.4 6.2 2030 31.7 10.3 50.5 7.5 2040 25.8 9.7 55.9 8.6


Number and percent of Net Change in the Civilian Labor Force in Texas Due to Each Race/Ethnicity Group, Assuming

Alternative Projection ScenariosRace Number Percent

Assuming Zero Net Migration Anglo -631,457 -38.8 Black 220,603 13.5 Hspnc 2,022,606 124.2 Other 17,138 1.1 Total 1,628,890 100.0 Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 Anglo -244,710 -4.0 Black 504,137 8.2 Hspnc 5,411,374 87.7 Other 498,612 8.1 Total 6,169,413 100.0 Assuming Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 Anglo 171,349 1.2 Black 849,850 6.1 Hspnc 11,280,241 81.0 Other 1,623,385 11.7 Total 13,924,825 100.0 Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007 Anglo -363,385 -3.3 Black 962,261 8.8 Hspnc 8,938,821 81.3 Other 1,453,621 13.2 Total 10,991,318 100.0


Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040* (in 2000 Dollars)


$54,441

$52,639

$50,903

$49,326

$47,883

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040


11.4

7.5

15.0

26.7

18.9

14.415.4

11.8

17.0

30.0

18.9

16.6

Family Households

Married Couple

Male Householder

Female Householder

Nonfamily Households

Total Households

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Percent in Poverty

2000 2040

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040


18.8

29 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.128.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate

Some College

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate/Prof.Degree

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Percent

2000 2040


Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States by Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000*

*From Census 2000 Public Use Microdata Sample (1% File)

$30,412

$42,271

$52,552

$80,950

$102,410

$32,473

$44,068

$54,467

$80,327

$104,294

Less ThanHigh School

High SchoolGraduate

Some College or Associate Degree

Bachelor'sDegree

Graduate/ProfessionalDegree

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Average Income

Texas United States

Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040*

Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates

*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

12.7

25.7

31.6

30.0

24.0

29.9

30.6

15.5

50.7

22.0

18.4

8.9

21.0

16.1

20.6

42.3

2.2

16.6

33.4

47.8

4.3

25.6

40.5

29.6

32.1

25.8

24.1

18.0

13.4

7.6

11.0

68.0

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc.

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

Percent

2000 2040

Black

Hispanic

Other

Anglo


Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under

Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*

*Source: Texas State Data Center. Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

$251

$621

$765

$938

$210

$528

$629

$752

2000Base Values

2040 Assuming2000 Attainment

Differentials

2040 Assuming1990-2000 Trends

in Differentials

2040 AssumingAnglo Trends

Apply to all Groups

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Billions

Aggregate Income Consumer Expenditures


The mark of a truly educated man is to be

moved deeply by statistics.

George Bernard Shaw

Steve MurdockPhone: 210-867-4385

E-mail: [email protected]: http://hobbycenter.rice.edu

mailto:[email protected]

Date post:	01-Jan-2016
Category:	Documents
Upload:	sylvana-silas
View:	34 times
Download:	2 times

TEDA in Houston March 24, 2011

Documents