TeECon Technology Engineering Consulting Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt On-Bat Project Micro...

TeECon

Technology Engineering Consulting

Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt

On-Bat ProjectMicro SOFC for portable application

WP 5

Project Management

TeECon ConsultingDr. Hans-Walter Praas

Radebeul, Germany Nov. 17th, 2005

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Outline

• Background

• Field of interest

• Evaluation process for ONE – BAT project

• Assessment of application entrance strategy

• Industrial partner evaluation process

• Application and energy source roadmap

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Background

• I: Technology has been developed, but still breakthrough waited– Japanese Toshiba, NEC, Hitachi, Fujitsu and Casio take lead (wow, they are the

losers in secondary battery…does it happen by accident?), the first product will be launched soon in 05CY (but they said “07CY would be the target year”…)

– Japanese NTT and KDDI expect FC can be “new power device” for 3.5/4G– Sad news is the stopping of Nokia’s FC development

• II: What is the killer application?– Cellular phone with TV tuner and HDD REC/PLAY– NBPC which runs 10-100 hours– Electric motor bike for ecology– It seems that co-generation system for house is more promising in Japan

• III: Conclusion: 1st gen FC will not compete with secondary battery– FC is charger as accessory, still equipment needs internal LIB/Laminate– If users accept such a device, which can be the next step for 2nd gen FC– If FC charger performs good, which can be the driving force to expand portable

equipment market and secondary battery industry would be also happy

– If IIT is consulting someone, we recommend to develop 2 cells 18650 charger with built-in AC-charger for power consuming cellular

Positive impact on rechargeable battery business

Source: Takeshita April 2005

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Field of Interest

Micro SOFC for portable application – a revolution of energy, when, what ….

Is the time right, what are the limits and show stoppers….

Rugged Computer

Consumer NotebooksProfessional Video

Soldier Power

Mobile phones / PDA / MDA

SOFC

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Evaluation process for ONE – BAT project

During the project periode the main task and validation belongs to an PROVE of CONCEPT.

Targed varification

Process varification

Application varification

Industrial partner

selection

The project validation (quarterly based) covers always a technical assessment, followed by timing, the competitions (on battery and FC) and potential application partners.

3m 4 – 8 m 6 – 10m 8 – 12m

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LiB/LiP total Market volume = 1.25 Billion units in 2003

Position Company Volume (M Cells) 1 Sanyo 350 2 Sony 250 3 BYD (China) 125 4 MBI (Matsushita) 100 5 SDI ( Samsung) 75 6 LG 32 7 GSMT (Sanyo) 30 8 ATB (Toshiba) ~20

8 companies represent ~ 80% LiB/LiP marketshare

Assessment of application entrance strategy

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Market Overview: Portable Device Drivers

– Mobility is rapidly increasing (Laptop, Cellphone, PDA, MP3...)

– Product life cycle of mobile devices is shortening

– Run time of mobile devices and number of features is increasing

• Power source (Battery) capacity must increase• Application power consumption must decrease

– Different technical requirements depending on application (speciality

markets)


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Energy density (volume, weight)

Power density (volume, weight)

Device design (form factor)

Environmental conditions (temperature)

Safety (UL)

Market Overview: Battery Drivers


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Industry Value Chain AnalysisIndustry Value Chain Analysis

Battery Manufacturer

Battery Manufacturer

Partner

Pack AssemblerPack Assembler

PackAssembler

PackAssembler

OEMOEM

RepresentativeDistributor

RepresentativeDistributor

SmallOEMSmallOEM

End User End User

ODM

ODM

Distributor

Distributor

End User End User


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Main applications Battery technology share, 2001, %

Power tools

Camcorder

Source: Avicenne, Arthur D. Little

Growth trendCAGR 2004 - 2008

Pricetrend

Li-ion5248

Battery technology share,

2006, %

NiMH

LaptopLaptop

PDAPDA

DigitalDigitalcameracamera

e-bike

Li-ion81

19NiMH

26%

20% NiCd5937NiMH

Li-ion

5929 NiMH

4Li-ion

NiCd

12

2%

Li-ion89

6NiMH

Li-ion88

9NiMH

NiCd5245

NiMH

Li-ion83

15NiMH

4

Li-ion

NiCd2

5Li-p 3Li-p

NiCd81

19NiMH

NiCd68

32NiMH0

18%

Market trends in portable application

Li-technology will dominate high end applications with Li-polymer substantially growing its share…

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Li-technology will dominate high end applications with Li-polymer substantially growing its share…

Main applications Battery technology share, 2001, %

CellphoneCellphone

Security

Source: Avicenne, Arthur D. Little

Growth trendCAGR 2004 - 2008

Pricetrend

NiCd5743

Battery technology share,

2006, %

NiMH

Household

RC ModelsRC Models

Cordlessphone NiCd74

26NiMH5446 NiMHNiCd-3%

-6%

NiCd100-7%

5%

0NiCd

6040

NiMH

NiCd77

23NiMH

74

26

NiMH

NiCd

NiCd91

9NiMH

Li-ion6528NiMH

Li-ion65

13NiMH9

Li-p

22Li-p

Market trends in portable application

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BatteriesChargers

SafetyElectronics

PackAssembly

Integrated

EnergySolutions

Sustaining a profitable Sustaining a profitable business will require playing a business will require playing a

new game new game


System concept for Batteries

SOFCBattery

Controlelectronics

PackAssembly

Integrated

EnergySolutions

System concept for SOFC

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High value, low volume market creates acceptence and confidence

Full access to key

customers and

existing markets

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Industrial partner evaluation process

Independed of the energy system, large OEM main market requires reliable and very cost optimized energy source products.

medium value

low value

high value

medium value

Standard Product Customized Product

Spot Market

Packer

Handy

DSCPDA

Medical

Military

Health care

Sp

ecia

lity

M

ark

ets

Volu

me

Mark

ets

•Market entrance strategy depends of achievements during the first phase. Best approach is always in Quadrant I.

Laptop

Scanner

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MA

SS

PR

OD

UC

TIO

N

Planning &Design

PilotRamp-up

production

Preparation

Commit to the plan:Accept plan

Agreement on timingAgreement on costsAgreement on CAPEX

Start deliveryto customers

Customer approvalQA & Production

agrees to deliver

Commit to go for the project:

Team leaderTarget dates

Design and samples

BSR :Market infocompetitorsTarget BOMResourcesCost R&DCost factory

Detailed planProduct specsand architecturePrototypesR&D resourcesR&D costsIndustrial scenarioInd. investmentsInd. resourcesTarget SMP/TR

Design/simulationFirst samplesMechanical samplesW/S samplesE/S samplesEquipment defin.Equipment install.

Definitive samples on factory lineProcess capabilityIndustrial infrastr.

Production running inCheck manuf. performanceCheck costsCustomer feedbackImprovements

QA & Production accepts design

Design/processes frozen

Yield on targetIndustr. set-up

completeProduction ownership

ProjectLaunch

PL

TransferRelease

TR

PlanApproval

PA

EngineeringSample

Approval

E/S A

StartPre Production

SMP


Industrial partner after prove of Concept

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Application assessment spread sheet (example for Li-Ion)

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Energy source roadmap

Large OEM Li-Ion manufacturer entering various applications

Source: LG –chem Roadmap portable batteries

SamllSize

Battery

LargeSize

Battery

’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02

24V24V

Explore

E-bikeE-bike

EV EV

1st Gen. LB1st Gen. LB2nd Gen. LB2nd Gen. LB

High-Voltage : 5VHigh-Voltage : 5V

Fuel Cell, Super Capacitor,Solar Cell,etcFuel Cell, Super Capacitor,Solar Cell,etc

42V/HEV42V/HEV300V/

EV 300V/

EV System (Load leveling,etc)System (Load leveling,etc)

For Power toolFor Power tool LiPB for Note-PC LiPB for Note-PC

Non-flammable CellNon-flammable Cell

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• The future will see increased mobility due to a wider range of utility of portable power sources• This will create the opportunity for new applications of portable power technology

Energy Requirement Wh/day0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100

Primary Batteries

Rechargeable Batteries

Communication

Sensing

Household Appliances

Free Energy

Micro ICE

Fuel Cells

New Applications

Energy source roadmap

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Contact

TeECon ConsultingAm Gymnasium 4

01445 Radebeul

Germany

+49 – (0) 351 – 83 38 47 3

+49 – (0) 351 – 83 38 47 4 (Fax)

+49 – (0) 172 – 37 37 02 2 (Mobil)

[email protected]

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